November 27, 2023 • 9 mins
Talking to The Armstrong & Getty, Military analyst Mike Lyons breaks down what we're seeing with Hamas, Israel and Iran.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hours after that initial attack, two ballistic missiles were fired
in the direction of the USS Mason from Yemen, where
Iranian BacT Hutis operate. The missiles fell far short of
the Mason, about ten miles away, but US ships in
the region have been in the line of fire since
the war in Gaza began, although this morning it is
(00:20):
still unclear whether this attack on the commercial vessel, which
is owned by a company led by an Israeli born
shipping magnate, is part of these larger threats coming from
these Iranian backed forces.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
So it's sort of breaking news overnight an Iranian back
group firing missiles out a US warship. So we got
that going on in addition to obviously the call it
a ceasefire or pause there between Israel and Hamas. And
then the capital of Ukraine underwent the biggest drone attack
since the war began over the weekend.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
So many topics and subtopics to discuss with Mike Lyons
who served the US military. They're in a variety of
capacities and places around the world and is now a
respected military analyst on CNN among other places. Mike welcome, how.
Speaker 4 (01:06):
Are you hey, guys? Great to be back with you.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
Hope you had a good Thanksgiving.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Let's start with Iran groups firing at our warships.
Speaker 4 (01:15):
What do you make of that? You know, Iran still
is not deterred on any level. These are Iranians supported
militia groups that but for Iran, they don't have any
of this kind of capability. The fact that they could
fire on a US warship is amazing on some level,
but it just shows you the level of support that
they get. We see soldiers that are been fired on
(01:38):
in Syria and inside of Iraq as well, and you know,
to kind of connect us to Israel a little bit,
now looks like the tie goes to the Iranians to
get their hostages out. We still have American hostages there are.
It just gets back to our relationship with Iran is
just completely dysfunctional. They're just not deterred on any level
from a military perspective, and we just continue to chase
(02:00):
them all around the globe here and let them, you know,
kind of lead and dictate what's going on. It's the
problem is what's going to happen. It is literally a
matter of time before the Israelis start a war with
the Uranians because of their nuclear capability, and at some
point the Cans getting kicked down the road. But at
some point we'd have to deal with Iran.
Speaker 3 (02:16):
Well, last time we talked to you were highly unsatisfied
with the amount of return fire that we offered to
the Iranian proxies when they were you know, shooting missiles
and drones and whatnot at our guys in a variety
of places.
Speaker 4 (02:30):
No, no, for sure, until Tehran feels the pain here,
you know, we're firing back at proxy groups or AMO
dumps or not military formations and not taking away their
real capability to do this. But you know it's a willpower.
Is that likely if we're going to fire a missile
inside of Iraq? Iran, if we take down their drone
capability or go after some some real military target inside,
(02:52):
that would escalate And this administration is just unwilling to
do that. So therefore Iran gets to pull all the strings.
They are conducting a masterful proxy war on so many levels.
They've got at least thirteen or fourteen different separate brigades
that operate in the Middle East in excess of one
hundred thousand troops. This is why Israel has the problem
(03:12):
because it's for them to fight one hundred thousand troops there.
If they ever got their stuff all together, it'd be
real challenge from a military perspective. And on top of that,
they're spread out in the North and with HESBLA, they're
spread out in the West Bank with Fatah and other
organizations that are there inside of Syria. And you know,
it looks like now Hamas is just trying to get
(03:34):
everybody to stop the fighting at least because they're trading
off time for hostages, right. I mean, every day they
get a break that they could release ten more hostages.
At some point they're running out of hostages to give up,
and Israel continues to say they're going to work, going
to start every day that we delay right now, were
unfortunately going to have more idea of soldiers killed, but
that's not a factor into the equation.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Yeah, So that's one of the reasons wanted to have
you on today because we're off all last week and
I was following your Twitter feed and some of your
comments on the so called cease fire. Is Hamas using
this to rearm redig in Rea anything.
Speaker 4 (04:08):
Absolutely repositioned forces, likely sending more to the staff, knowing
full well that the civilians are there to hide behind.
With that tunnel organization they have, Israel has no choice
for the ideaf positions there have got to kind of
hold back a little bit and go into defensive positions.
They have to protect themselves too, I think, and it's
very difficult from a soldier's mind to kind of flip
(04:30):
this switch to go from you know, warfighter to kind
of peacekeeper on the defensive side. And now all of
a sudden, let's say the deal falls through today and
they go twenty four to forty eight hours and no
hostage is released, They're going to have to make a
very tough decision to start the war back again. So
what does that mean for your an idea of soldier
on the ground you you were waiting with that order,
what those orders are? I think Israel has got to
(04:51):
take that very slowly again, bring back air strikes, drone strikes,
artillery strikes before you know, kind of re engaging in
the kind of combat that we saw there before they
stopped it. Israel had all the momentum and unfortunately and
Hamas knew that, and that's why they got the deal
they had and that's interesting to stop.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
Yeah, Mike, there's an incredibly strange disconnect I think in
the discussion of this topic. I mean, around here, we
consider it self evident that Israel decided Hamas must be
eliminated as a threat period, not knocked back on their heels,
and then let negotiations begin October seventh prove to them
it's untenable to live side byside with Maas. Meanwhile, here
(05:27):
in the New York Times, for instance, I'm reading that
Joe Biden's hoping to alter the trajectory of the war
and extend the ceasefire. Blah blah blah. There is a
complete disconnect between that thought and the fact that it
is untenable to live next to Hamas. Ever, again, nobody's
talking to each other about this.
Speaker 4 (05:47):
Right And the thing is, you know, regime change is
a military mission that the Ideaf can accomplish, but right
now it's conflicting with the getting the hostages back, and
there's going to be so much pressure internally on Israel
to continue down that path. But the only way that
Hamas changes is if they you know, destroyed militarily or
are they surrendered. Let's say, if they decide to fight conventionally,
(06:07):
but we don't expect that to happen. So this is
the challenge that that they have. And again the pressure
coming inside of Israel to continue to pause while they
get hostages back, I think is so great and to there,
you know, and to get humanitarian aid all those things
that go in. And I would love to bring back
to generals from World War Two and say this is
how we're fighting comp war this day. What do you
(06:29):
think of this? How do you think this would go?
And each you know, the ally generals would probably say, well,
you might as well just plan on spending the next
ten years at war because you're never going to destroy
your enemy if you keep starting and stopping like the
things you're doing here.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Yeah, that's an interesting perspective. I hadn't heard that you
have that we don't have, because net Nyahu is saying,
you know, the moment this is done, we're like full
back into the war. But you're saying psychologically, it's it's
just not that easy. You can't flip a switch and
go back to it.
Speaker 4 (06:54):
No, it's not. And it's from a soldier's perspective, they're
going to recognize that they're going to have to start
an air camp pain first. Again, they're gonna have to
soften back up the battlefield as Hamas has moved around.
They're gonna have to go back to collecting intelligence because
they're gonna have to bear soldiers at risk. You know,
the IDF has got to protect this force as well.
And I get you know, we're trading off IDF lives
for hostages. Last. No one wants to make that decision, right,
(07:16):
But that's really what's what's going to come down to here.
Some I'm sure some Hamas soldiers are already in those
tunnels heading south that Israel's gonna have to pursue them
right down the strip. They're gonna be pursuing them right
into Israel, right into Egypt. That's just a matter of time.
So this is just prolonging the war when the time comes.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Well, if our subject is willingness to commit yourself completely
to defeating your enemy, no matter the costs, public opinion,
that sort of thing. You've got Israel, then you've got Russia,
which obviously does not share their their hesitance to do
what they feel like they need to do in Ukraine.
I'll hit you with a statement. Tell me if I'm
(07:55):
right wrong or somewhere in between. This is a stalemate.
Ukraine cannot drive Russia out of their territory.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
That's true at this point without any offensive weapons, and
they were giving them enough equipment so they don't lose,
but now they won't be able to go on any
kind of offensive. You're seeing now the winner is now
going to start taking hold in that part of the world,
and it is to tell me, and I'm surprised that
Russia hasn't marshaled its military in order, because they should
(08:22):
have defeated Ukraine by now, just very frankly based on
the size and the scope and their industrial capability and
all the things. The advantages they have in their side
that they haven't so good good on Ukraine. But the
second the United States and Allied forces and NATO stops
supporting Ukraine, then I think they are at risk again.
So yeah, that's definitely true that Ukraine does not have
that capability to move them out. This counter offensive is
(08:45):
on for six months and now it's virtually stalled.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
Well, this will be argued throughout history probably, but if
we had given Ukraine some of the stuff that we
gave them late, would they have been able to win
this war.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
Well, they would have had to them day one, right,
you know, you have sixteens in the life. They would
have to and it had have to have modern day warns,
modern day equipment, a tackles, they would they would need
all the offensive weapons as opposed to defensive weapons. The
US does a good job of selling, you know, our
allies defensive weapons because we really don't want to be
(09:19):
accused of then getting them having to take those weapons
and go on the offensive with right, That's that's kind
of the downside there. But if they had better tanks,
if they had more at tackles, they had deeper artillery,
they had those kinds of things day one. Maybe because
now there were eighteen months into it, almost two years
into it, they would have this more of a competenty
and capability to do this. But to try to do
it now you're you're adding water, thinking you're going to
(09:40):
get a tree in the next six weeks. It's just
not going to happen.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
Military analyst Mike lyons, Mike, we appreciate the perspective very much.
Great to talk to you.
Speaker 4 (09:49):
Nice guys. Thanks for having Armstrong and
Hours after that initial attack, two ballistic missiles were fired
in the direction of the USS Mason from Yemen, where
Iranian BacT Hutis operate. The missiles fell far short of
the Mason, about ten miles away, but US ships in
the region have been in the line of fire since
the war in Gaza began, although this morning it is
(00:20):
still unclear whether this attack on the commercial vessel, which
is owned by a company led by an Israeli born
shipping magnate, is part of these larger threats coming from
these Iranian backed forces.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
So it's sort of breaking news overnight an Iranian back
group firing missiles out a US warship. So we got
that going on in addition to obviously the call it
a ceasefire or pause there between Israel and Hamas. And
then the capital of Ukraine underwent the biggest drone attack
since the war began over the weekend.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
So many topics and subtopics to discuss with Mike Lyons
who served the US military. They're in a variety of
capacities and places around the world and is now a
respected military analyst on CNN among other places. Mike welcome, how.
Speaker 4 (01:06):
Are you hey, guys? Great to be back with you.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
Hope you had a good Thanksgiving.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Let's start with Iran groups firing at our warships.
Speaker 4 (01:15):
What do you make of that? You know, Iran still
is not deterred on any level. These are Iranians supported
militia groups that but for Iran, they don't have any
of this kind of capability. The fact that they could
fire on a US warship is amazing on some level,
but it just shows you the level of support that
they get. We see soldiers that are been fired on
(01:38):
in Syria and inside of Iraq as well, and you know,
to kind of connect us to Israel a little bit,
now looks like the tie goes to the Iranians to
get their hostages out. We still have American hostages there are.
It just gets back to our relationship with Iran is
just completely dysfunctional. They're just not deterred on any level
from a military perspective, and we just continue to chase
(02:00):
them all around the globe here and let them, you know,
kind of lead and dictate what's going on. It's the
problem is what's going to happen. It is literally a
matter of time before the Israelis start a war with
the Uranians because of their nuclear capability, and at some
point the Cans getting kicked down the road. But at
some point we'd have to deal with Iran.
Speaker 3 (02:16):
Well, last time we talked to you were highly unsatisfied
with the amount of return fire that we offered to
the Iranian proxies when they were you know, shooting missiles
and drones and whatnot at our guys in a variety
of places.
Speaker 4 (02:30):
No, no, for sure, until Tehran feels the pain here,
you know, we're firing back at proxy groups or AMO
dumps or not military formations and not taking away their
real capability to do this. But you know it's a willpower.
Is that likely if we're going to fire a missile
inside of Iraq? Iran, if we take down their drone
capability or go after some some real military target inside,
(02:52):
that would escalate And this administration is just unwilling to
do that. So therefore Iran gets to pull all the strings.
They are conducting a masterful proxy war on so many levels.
They've got at least thirteen or fourteen different separate brigades
that operate in the Middle East in excess of one
hundred thousand troops. This is why Israel has the problem
(03:12):
because it's for them to fight one hundred thousand troops there.
If they ever got their stuff all together, it'd be
real challenge from a military perspective. And on top of that,
they're spread out in the North and with HESBLA, they're
spread out in the West Bank with Fatah and other
organizations that are there inside of Syria. And you know,
it looks like now Hamas is just trying to get
(03:34):
everybody to stop the fighting at least because they're trading
off time for hostages, right. I mean, every day they
get a break that they could release ten more hostages.
At some point they're running out of hostages to give up,
and Israel continues to say they're going to work, going
to start every day that we delay right now, were
unfortunately going to have more idea of soldiers killed, but
that's not a factor into the equation.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Yeah, So that's one of the reasons wanted to have
you on today because we're off all last week and
I was following your Twitter feed and some of your
comments on the so called cease fire. Is Hamas using
this to rearm redig in Rea anything.
Speaker 4 (04:08):
Absolutely repositioned forces, likely sending more to the staff, knowing
full well that the civilians are there to hide behind.
With that tunnel organization they have, Israel has no choice
for the ideaf positions there have got to kind of
hold back a little bit and go into defensive positions.
They have to protect themselves too, I think, and it's
very difficult from a soldier's mind to kind of flip
(04:30):
this switch to go from you know, warfighter to kind
of peacekeeper on the defensive side. And now all of
a sudden, let's say the deal falls through today and
they go twenty four to forty eight hours and no
hostage is released, They're going to have to make a
very tough decision to start the war back again. So
what does that mean for your an idea of soldier
on the ground you you were waiting with that order,
what those orders are? I think Israel has got to
(04:51):
take that very slowly again, bring back air strikes, drone strikes,
artillery strikes before you know, kind of re engaging in
the kind of combat that we saw there before they
stopped it. Israel had all the momentum and unfortunately and
Hamas knew that, and that's why they got the deal
they had and that's interesting to stop.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
Yeah, Mike, there's an incredibly strange disconnect I think in
the discussion of this topic. I mean, around here, we
consider it self evident that Israel decided Hamas must be
eliminated as a threat period, not knocked back on their heels,
and then let negotiations begin October seventh prove to them
it's untenable to live side byside with Maas. Meanwhile, here
(05:27):
in the New York Times, for instance, I'm reading that
Joe Biden's hoping to alter the trajectory of the war
and extend the ceasefire. Blah blah blah. There is a
complete disconnect between that thought and the fact that it
is untenable to live next to Hamas. Ever, again, nobody's
talking to each other about this.
Speaker 4 (05:47):
Right And the thing is, you know, regime change is
a military mission that the Ideaf can accomplish, but right
now it's conflicting with the getting the hostages back, and
there's going to be so much pressure internally on Israel
to continue down that path. But the only way that
Hamas changes is if they you know, destroyed militarily or
are they surrendered. Let's say, if they decide to fight conventionally,
(06:07):
but we don't expect that to happen. So this is
the challenge that that they have. And again the pressure
coming inside of Israel to continue to pause while they
get hostages back, I think is so great and to there,
you know, and to get humanitarian aid all those things
that go in. And I would love to bring back
to generals from World War Two and say this is
how we're fighting comp war this day. What do you
(06:29):
think of this? How do you think this would go?
And each you know, the ally generals would probably say, well,
you might as well just plan on spending the next
ten years at war because you're never going to destroy
your enemy if you keep starting and stopping like the
things you're doing here.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Yeah, that's an interesting perspective. I hadn't heard that you
have that we don't have, because net Nyahu is saying,
you know, the moment this is done, we're like full
back into the war. But you're saying psychologically, it's it's
just not that easy. You can't flip a switch and
go back to it.
Speaker 4 (06:54):
No, it's not. And it's from a soldier's perspective, they're
going to recognize that they're going to have to start
an air camp pain first. Again, they're gonna have to
soften back up the battlefield as Hamas has moved around.
They're gonna have to go back to collecting intelligence because
they're gonna have to bear soldiers at risk. You know,
the IDF has got to protect this force as well.
And I get you know, we're trading off IDF lives
for hostages. Last. No one wants to make that decision, right,
(07:16):
But that's really what's what's going to come down to here.
Some I'm sure some Hamas soldiers are already in those
tunnels heading south that Israel's gonna have to pursue them
right down the strip. They're gonna be pursuing them right
into Israel, right into Egypt. That's just a matter of time.
So this is just prolonging the war when the time comes.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Well, if our subject is willingness to commit yourself completely
to defeating your enemy, no matter the costs, public opinion,
that sort of thing. You've got Israel, then you've got Russia,
which obviously does not share their their hesitance to do
what they feel like they need to do in Ukraine.
I'll hit you with a statement. Tell me if I'm
(07:55):
right wrong or somewhere in between. This is a stalemate.
Ukraine cannot drive Russia out of their territory.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
That's true at this point without any offensive weapons, and
they were giving them enough equipment so they don't lose,
but now they won't be able to go on any
kind of offensive. You're seeing now the winner is now
going to start taking hold in that part of the world,
and it is to tell me, and I'm surprised that
Russia hasn't marshaled its military in order, because they should
(08:22):
have defeated Ukraine by now, just very frankly based on
the size and the scope and their industrial capability and
all the things. The advantages they have in their side
that they haven't so good good on Ukraine. But the
second the United States and Allied forces and NATO stops
supporting Ukraine, then I think they are at risk again.
So yeah, that's definitely true that Ukraine does not have
that capability to move them out. This counter offensive is
(08:45):
on for six months and now it's virtually stalled.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
Well, this will be argued throughout history probably, but if
we had given Ukraine some of the stuff that we
gave them late, would they have been able to win
this war.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
Well, they would have had to them day one, right,
you know, you have sixteens in the life. They would
have to and it had have to have modern day warns,
modern day equipment, a tackles, they would they would need
all the offensive weapons as opposed to defensive weapons. The
US does a good job of selling, you know, our
allies defensive weapons because we really don't want to be
(09:19):
accused of then getting them having to take those weapons
and go on the offensive with right, That's that's kind
of the downside there. But if they had better tanks,
if they had more at tackles, they had deeper artillery,
they had those kinds of things day one. Maybe because
now there were eighteen months into it, almost two years
into it, they would have this more of a competenty
and capability to do this. But to try to do
it now you're you're adding water, thinking you're going to
(09:40):
get a tree in the next six weeks. It's just
not going to happen.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
Military analyst Mike lyons, Mike, we appreciate the perspective very much.
Great to talk to you.
Speaker 4 (09:49):
Nice guys. Thanks for having Armstrong and
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