August 18, 2023 • 8 mins
While Ukraine remains hopeful, they're still asking the US for help.
Joining The Armstrong & Getty Show, Military analyst Mike Lyons talks about the current state of the war in Ukraine.
Hear the entire conversation in a new episode of Armstrong & Getty's Extra Large Podcast....
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Ukrainians are struggling to make the big breakthrough. It
could take more time. They're still hopeful, and they are
still pressing the United States and their allies for more
military aid, more support to try and get through those minefields.
And official telling me they have a fraction of the
d mining equipment they need.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
That's a problem. This headline was troubling yesterday from the
New York Times. US intelligence assessment says Ukraine's counter offensive
will fail to achieve key objective. That's what our intelligence says.
It's troubling that it's true. I think it's also troubling
that they're telling us this. Why is that coming out?
(00:36):
Is there a reason for that?
Speaker 3 (00:38):
Let's discuss that and several other matters of note with
Mike Lyons, military analyst, a major in the United States
Armed Forces serving the country all over the world, and
respected military analyst on CNN among other places. Mike, how
are you, sir, guy?
Speaker 4 (00:52):
It's great to be back with you.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
Last time you're on you were more optimistic than usual
about Ukrainian's chances with this counter offensive. Where are we now?
Speaker 4 (01:00):
Yeah, I was because they were at least able to
get to the first line of defenses there they got
into a town Rovertine, but in two short weeks it
looks like they pushed back towards Zaparizia and this Melitopo,
which is their key objective. It's only seventy five miles
from where they're sitting right now. It just seems unreachable
(01:21):
for them. And that's because you lay two to three
defensive layers of minefields together with built up areas that
they can't avoid without the equipment, without the mind clearing equipment.
You know, it's really what it comes down to, and
how they've deployed these mines. They've been stacking them two
and three underneath into the ground at the time. So
(01:41):
even if the mind clearing equipment gets the first two,
there's still one to go and it blows the tracks
off the tanks and then you just overall add no
air superiority at whatsoever. You just don't get any kind
of recipe for success. You know. Counter offensives are about bold,
audacious moves, the shock and awe, you know, all those
things that you look in history and shock effect and stuff.
(02:04):
None of that's here, and that's that's just why they're
not been successful.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
And on the topic of airpower. Do I understand correctly
that the F sixteens won't be available and piloted perhaps
until early twenty five.
Speaker 4 (02:16):
That's probably right, and based on the pilots, and the
next F sixteens that are going to show up are
going to be twenty years old, they're not going to
be the F sixteens that they need to take out
Russian counter electronic warfare measures and not just provide close
air support for troops, but to do things from a
deep strike perspective. They're not going to have that capability,
(02:40):
and they're not getting the top shelf F sixteens. They're getting.
What these NATO countries are doing very smartly right now
is all their kind of lousy natal equipment for in
the past twenty five years. They're shipping it to Ukraine.
They willing to get rid of it because they want
to basically rearm themselves over the next ten years with
new stuff. And that's what's happening with these Suppose it's
(03:00):
not like thirty of them too again, they need one
hundred and twenty of them. They need squadrons of them
in order to be effective in the fight.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
So Ukraine is in the unfortunate situation of not winning
is losing for them, but for Russia, not winning is
not losing for them. They can just hold ground and
wait right.
Speaker 4 (03:22):
Right, and we're seeing now what's come out of Russian
intelligence sources that they want to freeze in place and
they want to stay and kind of hold the line.
Right now, they were going on some counter offensive operations
in the north in back Moot, still trying to take
that you know town that has no significant strategic value.
You know, the line's still eight hundred kilometers long, and
(03:42):
in order for them to try to do something, but
they recognize that they don't have the firepower, the shock
effect in order to do the same thing to go
in any kind of counter offensive. So they're coming to
the conclusion that they're just going to continue to dig in.
You know, that's kind of the you know, talking about
it with other analysts, you know, Russian tactics right now
is you know, go in, take over a place and
mind yourself in, you know, get ready for the long run.
You're not leaving, and when you do leave, you know
(04:04):
the way out and the enemy trying to come in
is not going to be very successful without the mind
clearing equipment. So I'm just going to see a stalemate there.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
I'm just curious. So if we were faced with that,
the United States, the best military in the world, how
how well would we be able to get through you know,
these mind laden fields or how long would it take?
Speaker 4 (04:21):
Well, first of all, we'd absolutely destroy them from the
air before we even move soldiers into them. We have
over pressurized bombs that blow the minds up in place,
you know, you know, we still obviously have the risk casualties.
We have better mind clearing equipment, but we just have
it in scale that none of these other countries have
it in so and you know we would we would
(04:42):
be coming at them from naval power, from the air.
It's you know, it would be no match, and we
would not risk our soldiers until we were positive that
we were going to succeed. So it's just it's all
the difference in modern warfare, and we're watching a early
you know, twentieth century war take place with we really
have the only twenty first century Army.
Speaker 3 (05:03):
Military analyst Mike lyons on the line, Mike, let's shift
to the Pacific theater. It is notable any student of
history understands this that Japan and South Korea are arm
in arm virtually meeting with the president and Camp David
talking about military cooperation. What are your thoughts on that.
Speaker 4 (05:22):
Yeah, I think it's good. I think, you know, that's becoming.
That's we're going to look to hear twenty years from
now and see if something does happen there, You're going
to see all these little indications of what had taken
place there. The Japanese, unlike the Germans, are trying to
at least reset their military historically, and you know, the
Japanese are warriors. They you know, saw that in World
(05:44):
War Two, and you know, so I think from you know,
their surviability perspective, they recognize the threat to China is
they threat on the seas in the South China Sea
as well, and Australia as a key ally for US there.
We've got other sides, other militaries there that we have
so so that that alliance there is kind of like
you know, natal Light Pacific is what's taking place, not formalized,
(06:09):
but the implied missions that are going on there, and
I think those are all good things.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
Well, I agree completely. I think we both agree it's
a very good thing. Given the threat of China. But
it's notable since Japan committed just horrifying atrocities in South
Korea through the years. I mean that the wounds are
still very painful between those two peoples, but they are
so intent on countering China. They've gotten together again, which
I think is a good thing.
Speaker 4 (06:35):
Yeah, yeah, and and those right, clearly generations go back
with regard to that in what Japan did during the
Second World War. But they both look at each other,
and they look at China as exontential threat to both
of them, and so they're they're gonna they're going to
work together, both of them, with the support of the
United States as long as you know, we're in the
room at the same time. And you know, I'm sure
there's emotions that get get in play every once in
(06:57):
a while, but fundamentally they recognize where the enemy is.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
Finally, the Taliban has been celebrating this week their two
year anniversary of having taken back over Afghanistan after our withdrawal.
Any thoughts on this two year anniversary, Yeah, I'll.
Speaker 4 (07:15):
Tell you it's still through the military community. There's been
no real after action report this because the administration is
basically kept it under wraps. They recognize how bad it is.
We saw the parents testify in front of Congress. We
didn't see any the military was not punished that Sentcom commander.
I hold him responsible for the depths of those marines there.
They never should have been anywhere near civilians in the
(07:38):
last few days. There's no difference between Afghanistan between what
happened there and what happened in Vietnam from a historical perspective,
with the only difference is fifty eight thousand body bags
that came home in the sixties and seventies. And if
we didn't learn the lesson, and hopefully we'll learn it
in the future, it.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
Is remarkable and disgusting that mountability is so vital. It's
it's irreplaceable on the battlefield and in maneuvers, and as
you get further up the chain, there's less and less accountability.
It's just it's it's angering.
Speaker 4 (08:12):
We had it during the World Wars, but really since
then we haven't seen it. And you know, we didn't
assign a general officer, for example, in Afghanistan, to say
go win this war. Instead, we rotated them out. It
was kind of like a you know, a human resources
you know they got this guy got the experience. Let
this guy get the experience. I mean, we fought all
these different wars. Every time we got a new commander there,
(08:32):
and that didn't happen in World War One, World War two,
we put a person in place, we put a general
officer in places to go win that war. And when
they didn't, they got fired and we put somebody out
there that can do the job.
Speaker 3 (08:42):
Mike Lyons on the line, Mike always enlightening. Thanks a
million for the time. Good to talk to you, great.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
Guys, Thanks for having me. See soon. Armstrong and Getty
The Ukrainians are struggling to make the big breakthrough. It
could take more time. They're still hopeful, and they are
still pressing the United States and their allies for more
military aid, more support to try and get through those minefields.
And official telling me they have a fraction of the
d mining equipment they need.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
That's a problem. This headline was troubling yesterday from the
New York Times. US intelligence assessment says Ukraine's counter offensive
will fail to achieve key objective. That's what our intelligence says.
It's troubling that it's true. I think it's also troubling
that they're telling us this. Why is that coming out?
(00:36):
Is there a reason for that?
Speaker 3 (00:38):
Let's discuss that and several other matters of note with
Mike Lyons, military analyst, a major in the United States
Armed Forces serving the country all over the world, and
respected military analyst on CNN among other places. Mike, how
are you, sir, guy?
Speaker 4 (00:52):
It's great to be back with you.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
Last time you're on you were more optimistic than usual
about Ukrainian's chances with this counter offensive. Where are we now?
Speaker 4 (01:00):
Yeah, I was because they were at least able to
get to the first line of defenses there they got
into a town Rovertine, but in two short weeks it
looks like they pushed back towards Zaparizia and this Melitopo,
which is their key objective. It's only seventy five miles
from where they're sitting right now. It just seems unreachable
(01:21):
for them. And that's because you lay two to three
defensive layers of minefields together with built up areas that
they can't avoid without the equipment, without the mind clearing equipment.
You know, it's really what it comes down to, and
how they've deployed these mines. They've been stacking them two
and three underneath into the ground at the time. So
(01:41):
even if the mind clearing equipment gets the first two,
there's still one to go and it blows the tracks
off the tanks and then you just overall add no
air superiority at whatsoever. You just don't get any kind
of recipe for success. You know. Counter offensives are about bold,
audacious moves, the shock and awe, you know, all those
things that you look in history and shock effect and stuff.
(02:04):
None of that's here, and that's that's just why they're
not been successful.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
And on the topic of airpower. Do I understand correctly
that the F sixteens won't be available and piloted perhaps
until early twenty five.
Speaker 4 (02:16):
That's probably right, and based on the pilots, and the
next F sixteens that are going to show up are
going to be twenty years old, they're not going to
be the F sixteens that they need to take out
Russian counter electronic warfare measures and not just provide close
air support for troops, but to do things from a
deep strike perspective. They're not going to have that capability,
(02:40):
and they're not getting the top shelf F sixteens. They're getting.
What these NATO countries are doing very smartly right now
is all their kind of lousy natal equipment for in
the past twenty five years. They're shipping it to Ukraine.
They willing to get rid of it because they want
to basically rearm themselves over the next ten years with
new stuff. And that's what's happening with these Suppose it's
(03:00):
not like thirty of them too again, they need one
hundred and twenty of them. They need squadrons of them
in order to be effective in the fight.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
So Ukraine is in the unfortunate situation of not winning
is losing for them, but for Russia, not winning is
not losing for them. They can just hold ground and
wait right.
Speaker 4 (03:22):
Right, and we're seeing now what's come out of Russian
intelligence sources that they want to freeze in place and
they want to stay and kind of hold the line.
Right now, they were going on some counter offensive operations
in the north in back Moot, still trying to take
that you know town that has no significant strategic value.
You know, the line's still eight hundred kilometers long, and
(03:42):
in order for them to try to do something, but
they recognize that they don't have the firepower, the shock
effect in order to do the same thing to go
in any kind of counter offensive. So they're coming to
the conclusion that they're just going to continue to dig in.
You know, that's kind of the you know, talking about
it with other analysts, you know, Russian tactics right now
is you know, go in, take over a place and
mind yourself in, you know, get ready for the long run.
You're not leaving, and when you do leave, you know
(04:04):
the way out and the enemy trying to come in
is not going to be very successful without the mind
clearing equipment. So I'm just going to see a stalemate there.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
I'm just curious. So if we were faced with that,
the United States, the best military in the world, how
how well would we be able to get through you know,
these mind laden fields or how long would it take?
Speaker 4 (04:21):
Well, first of all, we'd absolutely destroy them from the
air before we even move soldiers into them. We have
over pressurized bombs that blow the minds up in place,
you know, you know, we still obviously have the risk casualties.
We have better mind clearing equipment, but we just have
it in scale that none of these other countries have
it in so and you know we would we would
(04:42):
be coming at them from naval power, from the air.
It's you know, it would be no match, and we
would not risk our soldiers until we were positive that
we were going to succeed. So it's just it's all
the difference in modern warfare, and we're watching a early
you know, twentieth century war take place with we really
have the only twenty first century Army.
Speaker 3 (05:03):
Military analyst Mike lyons on the line, Mike, let's shift
to the Pacific theater. It is notable any student of
history understands this that Japan and South Korea are arm
in arm virtually meeting with the president and Camp David
talking about military cooperation. What are your thoughts on that.
Speaker 4 (05:22):
Yeah, I think it's good. I think, you know, that's becoming.
That's we're going to look to hear twenty years from
now and see if something does happen there, You're going
to see all these little indications of what had taken
place there. The Japanese, unlike the Germans, are trying to
at least reset their military historically, and you know, the
Japanese are warriors. They you know, saw that in World
(05:44):
War Two, and you know, so I think from you know,
their surviability perspective, they recognize the threat to China is
they threat on the seas in the South China Sea
as well, and Australia as a key ally for US there.
We've got other sides, other militaries there that we have
so so that that alliance there is kind of like
you know, natal Light Pacific is what's taking place, not formalized,
(06:09):
but the implied missions that are going on there, and
I think those are all good things.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
Well, I agree completely. I think we both agree it's
a very good thing. Given the threat of China. But
it's notable since Japan committed just horrifying atrocities in South
Korea through the years. I mean that the wounds are
still very painful between those two peoples, but they are
so intent on countering China. They've gotten together again, which
I think is a good thing.
Speaker 4 (06:35):
Yeah, yeah, and and those right, clearly generations go back
with regard to that in what Japan did during the
Second World War. But they both look at each other,
and they look at China as exontential threat to both
of them, and so they're they're gonna they're going to
work together, both of them, with the support of the
United States as long as you know, we're in the
room at the same time. And you know, I'm sure
there's emotions that get get in play every once in
(06:57):
a while, but fundamentally they recognize where the enemy is.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
Finally, the Taliban has been celebrating this week their two
year anniversary of having taken back over Afghanistan after our withdrawal.
Any thoughts on this two year anniversary, Yeah, I'll.
Speaker 4 (07:15):
Tell you it's still through the military community. There's been
no real after action report this because the administration is
basically kept it under wraps. They recognize how bad it is.
We saw the parents testify in front of Congress. We
didn't see any the military was not punished that Sentcom commander.
I hold him responsible for the depths of those marines there.
They never should have been anywhere near civilians in the
(07:38):
last few days. There's no difference between Afghanistan between what
happened there and what happened in Vietnam from a historical perspective,
with the only difference is fifty eight thousand body bags
that came home in the sixties and seventies. And if
we didn't learn the lesson, and hopefully we'll learn it
in the future, it.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
Is remarkable and disgusting that mountability is so vital. It's
it's irreplaceable on the battlefield and in maneuvers, and as
you get further up the chain, there's less and less accountability.
It's just it's it's angering.
Speaker 4 (08:12):
We had it during the World Wars, but really since
then we haven't seen it. And you know, we didn't
assign a general officer, for example, in Afghanistan, to say
go win this war. Instead, we rotated them out. It
was kind of like a you know, a human resources
you know they got this guy got the experience. Let
this guy get the experience. I mean, we fought all
these different wars. Every time we got a new commander there,
(08:32):
and that didn't happen in World War One, World War two,
we put a person in place, we put a general
officer in places to go win that war. And when
they didn't, they got fired and we put somebody out
there that can do the job.
Speaker 3 (08:42):
Mike Lyons on the line, Mike always enlightening. Thanks a
million for the time. Good to talk to you, great.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
Guys, Thanks for having me. See soon. Armstrong and Getty
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