Protecting The Incumbents: Lanhee Chen Talks to A&G

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
If we're gonna talk politics with anybody, we like to
talk to Lan Heat Chin. He's a candidate for California
state controller, but he's also got all kinds of public
policy experience. David and dyane stuffy, fellow in American Public
Policy Studies at the Hoover Institution, director of domestic domestic
policy studies at Stanford universities, has been involved in a
Um attached to a bunch of different presidential campaigns. Lan

(00:21):
He welcome back to the Armstrong and getty show. Great
to do with you, Jack. Thank you. What do you
think of this idea of the Republicans trying to focus
on a few issues to make it clear to the
American people this is what we'll do for you. I
think it's a great idea. I think it's important to
offer contrast and to offer ideas, as you know, not
not just saying hey, we're not going to beat them,

(00:42):
but to say, listen, what are what are some of
the things that Republicans will do if they have the
opportunity to be in the majority in the house? And
it's very similar to what new gingridge did the contract
with America, focusing in on a few really important issues
like around the economy and how Republicans are gonna try
and help to make things more affordable in our country
after the decimation we've seen from inflation and now coming recession. Uh,

(01:07):
you know, talking about health care and how to make
healthcare more affordable and accessible to people. So I think
it's great to have an agenda. I think the challenge
obviously now is how much bandwidth and how much attention
is it going to get in the closing weeks of
a campaign, when when really substance tends to go out
the door, unfortunately, and it's all about, you know, attacks
in this and one way and the other. I do

(01:29):
think it's a good idea to offer the alternative. I
wish they've done it a little bit earlier, quickly. Yeah,
that's interesting. We're talking about that earlier. Just how and
I'm sure both parties are trying to figure this out.
In the modern world, people are starting to vote in
certain areas of the country today. So when do you
when do you announce your closing message? You know, gazillions
of people, like myself, I'm still a show up at

(01:49):
the polling place and vote on voting day. I just
for some reason like doing it that way. But you
know that's a shrinking group of people. So when do
you when do you unleash your closing argument now? Yeah,
it's interesting. The modern campaign has extended. Uh, you know
very much so. I mean we already knew it was
extending earlier, but when you talked about a closing message,

(02:10):
it used to be the case that you would have
a closing message in the last week of October and
you'd run two weeks. I remember doing a bunch of
different presidential campaigns over the years and we would sort
of go into that closing argument, you know, right around
Halloween and it gives herself usually a nice runway of
about a week, a week and a half to really
close strong. But to your point, I mean you look
at the state of California as an example. Ballots will

(02:31):
be in the mail October tent and it creates essentially
a rolling for week ellection. In Pennsylvania, I understand someone
told me that they've got ballots out already in Pennsylvania.
You can already request an abstency ballot now. So it
is an extended period of time and it changes the
character of campaigns, changes the nature of what campaigns and
candidates need to do and and it's it's almost like

(02:53):
you've got to start building into your closing argument through
the month of September and into October. And you know,
as I think about my own handed to seeing what
we're doing here in California, that that's how we're approaching it.
We're approaching it as a a lengthy period of time
over which you need to build your case, as opposed
to what it used to because about, you know, ten
days to two weeks. Do you think that's better? or
or or not? I I feel like I understand the,

(03:16):
you know, um of a democratic, small D democratic view
of making sure everybody has plenty of time to vote,
stretching out that sort of thing, but in terms of
focusing the nation's attention on issues, to have a conversation
about a debate about it, I think the longer period
is not working. Yeah, let me tell you what it does,
in my view, is it protects incumbents, because if you're

(03:41):
if you're already in office, and people show up and
they say, Oh, this guy is already a congressman or
this gal is already a member of the state legislature,
then you have a built in amount of name. I
D or a built in amount of recognition that a
challenger does not have. So when you lengthen the period
of time over which they've got to compete, in my

(04:01):
view what it does is it makes it easier for
the incumbent too to hang on because because, quite frankly,
you know, the incumbent is already going to have that
and and it's just that's kind of my view, because
I think what happens is the incumbent has all of
the resources and all the ability to communicate over that
period of time. The challenge is probably still raising money

(04:21):
right the challenger is still trying to figure out how
do I get my my name idea out there and
people are already voting, so it's too late by the
time that they actually get around the delivering a message.
So that's my sort of more cynical view. The reasons
period getting ended is because incumbents can protect themselves. Sometimes
cynical is just accurate. So the people that are already
in charge made the rules easier to keep them in charge. Yeah,

(04:45):
I mean, I look, I think you see it in
a lot of different places right. I think you see
it in different states. You know, certainly there is an
effort underway to make sure that incumbents are, you know,
more more, more closely enscons, more care lanscons in their positions,
and I don't think that's necessarily a good thing, but
I think that incumbents do write the rules and then

(05:05):
they have the advantage. What's actually gonna be on the
mind of most voters as they vote, whether they're voting
today or the first week in November? NBC has done
this thing with their polling where they break the economy
into like three different topics, inflation, jobs and something else,
so that that waters down those numbers and they can
claim that abortions the number one issue when if you

(05:27):
put all the economic stuff together, it is far and
away the number one issue. So what, in your mind,
is actually going to be the top of mind issues? Who?
Who Was it that said it's the economy stupid? Was
that James Carville, the political consultant for Bill Clinton? It
is always, I think, predominantly, the the economy that drives

(05:48):
voter decision making, and you know the economy can take
lots of different forms. Right. I mean to your point.
Is it that I'm paying a lot more for Gas
and food? Is it that I feel like my job
is at risk. Is it that I feel that the
economic conditions in our country are generally unstable and unsteady?
Those are all related. Yes, they're separate, specific concerns and
if you ask someone to put their finger on it,

(06:09):
is it inflation or is it it's very hard for
folks to do that. But the reality is it is
these kitchen table issues. I mean I see it every
day campaigning all over the state of California. When I
talk to people, predominantly, I will tell you, like nine
times out of ten, the first thing someone will tell
me is, you know what I'm I'm really frustrated with
how much gas they'll call. I'm really frustrated. I'm really

(06:32):
I'm really concerned about what's happening with our economy. I
keep hearing it's slowing down, mortgage rates are soaring, it's
making it harder for me to afford a house. All
of these things, these are all related issues. So I
think the economy, by and by and large, is going
to be the major issue of this campaign. Yeah, I
think you're right. I I'm at that point in my

(06:52):
life where I can, you know, afford to live, but
I often think about what would I have done when
I was twenty five. I'm not sure what I would
have done. I couldna have filled up my car and
gone to the grocery store. It's crazy. Yeah, well, and
I think the other piece of it is that people
look at Um the current conditions, and they just don't
see him getting better. You know. That's the other thing

(07:13):
is that it's not like there's a ton of hope
out there that we're going to see a dramatic end
to inflation or that interest rates are going to come
back down, because they're not. I mean interest rates are
headed in the in the other direction. Right I think
we're seeing home loan rates for the thirty year. At
least I heard it was up over six percent, which
is remarkable and where it was just just, you know,
twenty four months ago. So I think it's Um. It

(07:35):
is not just the state of the economy but a
sense that the people in charge, I don't know what
they're doing, they're not they're not doing what it takes
to improve the situation. That that gets me too. It
is there gonna be a price paid for Joe Biden
saying things like, you know, like you did on sixty minutes,
and has in various other Um settings where he says, oh, look, look,

(07:55):
it was zero, zero. Nobody's feeling like inflation is your own. Yeah,
I think that the challenge politicians have, particularly people who
are in office, is, you know, they risk looking like
they are Um, under selling or under estimating what's happening

(08:16):
in people's lives. And when you say, for example, I
mean this whole crop about inflation being transitory, which I
still I'm not sure who came up with that one,
but this idea that you know, everything is fine, keep calm,
the economy is doing fine. The economy is not doing fine.
All right, the reality is, if you look at the
economic indicators, there are some serious warning signs that we're

(08:36):
seeing slowing if you look at a lot of different
measures that economists used to evaluate whether we're headed toward recession,
a lot of those things are flashing red right now.
They're saying, listen, we're going to have a slowdown and
and labor markets, uh, you know, are still relatively tight,
but that you know, that could change. And so I
think the reality is that we are headed for challenging

(08:57):
economic times and politicians risk looking like they're out of
touch if they don't acknowledge that. But but if they're
gonna catch twenty two, Joe Biden's gonna catch twenty two
because on the one hand he can't really afford to
say what is the truth, which is that the economy
is in trouble, because politically he's got to sound like
a cheerleader. But if you're a cheerleader then you sound

(09:18):
like you're out of touch. That that's a challenge. That's
challenge he has. That's a good point. Is Joe Biden
gonna run again? I don't know. I'm probably the last
person to aspect because I just I don't I don't
know enough about the uner workings of that White House
or the party to know. But I will say this.
I think there's a lot of people chomping at the
bit to either to run against him or hoping he

(09:40):
doesn't run so it opens a pathway. Um. But I
you know, I mean I don't know. Like I I
look at him sometimes and I think, Jeez, this is Um.
Can he make you know, can he really be an
effective campaigner for another presidential campaign? I mean these things
are grueling. Yeah and well, and this is not gonna
be one you can do from your home on zoom.

(10:00):
Probably you'd actually have to track everything correct. You actually
have to go out and meet people and you know,
I think at one point in his career that was
actually strange. Yeah, absolutely, to get out there and meet
people and connect with people. I just think it's hard now,
you know. I mean everybody reaches an age where it's
it's just a more challenging and his problem is, frankly,

(10:20):
it's less what Republican he's going to run against, is
that there's a lot of ambitious Democrats who want to
take him out, you know, and that's that's his bigger problem.
Is Gavin gonna run? Boy, sure seems like it. I
mean he's positioning himself that way and trying to imagine
why you'd run ads in Florida like that, is the
governor of California, if you're running for president. You know,

(10:42):
there's this concept in politics, these politicians call it a
free shot election, where basically you've got a job and
so you go and run for something else because it's
a free shot. And Gavin running for President in twenty
four is a free shot because he's probably gonna get
you reelected this fall. And if he gets re elected,
then what is that mean he has four years right
as governor, and so two thousand twenty four falls right

(11:04):
in the middle of that. Why not? Right? It's like
why not give it a shot? So, you know, I
think he is in a similar position to others who
would evaluate and look at it and if they don't
feel like there's a political price to be paid for
running against an incumbent president or, in the alternative of
the incumbent president decides not to run, they may just say, hey,
why not give it a shot, you know? So I

(11:25):
don't know. Sometimes it's it's just a way of raising
their profile nationally too. I'm real close to out of time.
This is gonna have to be a short answer. Just
trump run again? I you know, I it's hard for
me to say. If you'd ask me a couple months ago,
I would have said yeah, I think he will run.
Now it's it's it's just a little bit more up
in the air, but I think if you had to bet,

(11:45):
I'd say yeah, I think he's gonna run. Interesting. So
if you live in California, vote for Lawnie Chen for controller,
because we need that. And if the only times thinks
it's true, wow, it's really true. Thank you, Lonie. Appreciate
your time today. Thanks Jack Barn strong and Jetty