February 24, 2023 • 12 mins
Friday February 24 marks one year since Russia's awful, large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Joining The Armstrong & Getty Show, Military analyst Mike Lyons reflects on his thoughts when the war began, Russia's military performance and what may happen next.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
But the fact of the matter is, in the last
couple of months there really hasn't been very much in
the way of territorial gains on the part of the
Russian military, And one of the reasons for that seems
to be that they've mobilized a lot of people, but
they can't really get that many weapons to people. It's
under clear whether or not that's because their industry symbody
isn't efficient enough, or whether or not sanctions or taking
(00:21):
a toll on some of that. But right now you
have a case where people keep talking about an offensive
that's about to happen, but so far very little in
the way of gains. If that offensive is indeed already underway,
If the Russian offensive is underway, it's not impressive so far.
A couple of things on the war in Ukraine and
(00:42):
the one year anniversary of this whole awful thing starting.
I'm into this story for geopolitical reasons, for student history reasons,
for personal reasons of just the humanity, I mean, just awful.
But if you're not into this story, you should be
into it, at least as a taxpayers. We've now spent
one hundred and thirteen billion dollars, and it looks like,
(01:04):
you know, we're going to continue down that road for
some time to come. Two big developments today, on the
one year anniversary, the Biden administration puts out a list
of two hundred entities they're going to sanction harshly for
continuing to do business with Russia when they're not supposed to.
And China put out a peace plan for a ceasefire
between Russia and Ukraine. And blah blah blah blah blah,
(01:25):
speaking of entities that have been getting around the sanctions,
Excuse me for not acting like a kid on Christmas
morning receiving the gift of the Chinese plan. Let's discuss
the past year and what's likely to come. With military analysts,
my clients, Mike served with various military organizations both the
US and Europe throughout his career. You know them from
a number of publications and networks. Mike, how are you, sir?
(01:45):
Take away, guys, great to be back. A year ago,
our own government was saying Kiev could fall in ninety
six hours. What were you thinking a year ago? And
looking back on what you thought, how do you respond? Yeah?
Probably the same Russia had tremendous capability capacity with their military.
They had maneuver space, they had all the things going.
(02:06):
They wound up their military machine, put about one hundred
and eighty thousand troops surrounded Ukraine. Came in from Belarus,
came in from eastern Russia. It should have been over
in three or four days. It should have been a
desert storm had they fought a combined arms fight. But
they instead did what Russia does best, and when a
military perspective comes, they just kind of slug it through,
(02:28):
and they did not use their combined arms advantage, and
Ukraine was able to hold off and hold out for
what was the first few months, and then equipment starts
pouring in, and now we're left with a year later,
with a true stalemate, a war of attrician taking place
on both sides. Well As not only an analyst, but
a man who commanded troops in combat, how would you
(02:49):
describe to the layman the level of underperformance of the
Russian military in this so far? Oh my gosh, it's
hard to think about anything less than what they've done.
I mean, I you know, they had they outnumbered them
the Ukraine military six to one in some areas, to
go on the offense with artillery rounds with combined arms forces.
(03:11):
The fact that you're later the Russians don't control the
airspace is amazing. There was there was no real coordinated
plan on how they were going to take Ukraine down.
I mean, it's talking brass tacks here. But the first
thing the United States hasn't any of these kind of
wars is we go off to all their air defense
platforms and make sure that we own the sky. Now
we have air superiority. Now we roll in the troops
(03:32):
from behind. And they didn't do any of that thing.
They just literally thought that the Ukraine military was just
going to roll through and got punched in the nose
and then and then in the fight when the fight
started happening. Unfortunately, Russian soldiers you know, didn't didn't answer
the bell. I was looking at your Twitter feed. That
picture you put out, is that a young U in
nineteen ninety know of the two privates in my Celcu
(03:55):
lefting well and two privates from my company. We fired.
Everybody claims they fired the first round of the war, right,
so that we fired. We were one of those units
that did. That was a day before the ground war.
Started at Desert Storm. We fired copperhead rounds on targets,
so we were already two miles inside of Iraq before
the war actually started. I remember listening to the VBC saying, Oh, yeah,
(04:16):
the war's going to start here for your son. I'm like, nah, Actually,
the war is already on. We're getting up tomorrow morning,
we're rolling, we're rolling north. So that those are the
two of my good privates there that let's shut that round.
And Russia thought they were going to pull off that
sort of thing where you just you roll in and
take over in a couple of days, and it's a
it's a yeah, it's at the Allures Battle. And this
is where Desert Storm gave this impression that other countries
(04:39):
and other militaries can do this. And the thing about
it is the United States literally practiced for that battle
for the for ten years. They sent units to the
National Training Center. Anyone who's listening knows what I'm talking about.
You go to the National Training Center, you fight that
fight there, you practice. We've practiced that for about ten years.
We showed up from Journey. We showed up with five
hundred thousand troops and that's why that went that way.
(05:00):
Ussia thought that the same thing was going to happen.
They didn't put the same number of troops. They're about
one hundred and eighty thousand or so. They thought the
same thing was going to happen. Didn't recognize you have
to practice that and you have to plan on on
things going that way. So my clients, where are we
now and what's likely to take shape in the next
six months or so. So the history gets to this
spot where both sides are at a stalemate in this
(05:23):
war of attrition. Now, in the past, either side starts
attacking the other side's capability to wage war. Now Ukraine
doesn't have that capability. They can't go on the offense
into Russia. They can't attack you know, tank factories and
ammunition depots inside of Russia where their story where they're made.
Now Russia can. Russia is trying to do that to Ukraine,
but Western supplies keep pouring in. So classic war by
(05:46):
proxy on our side and the West is supplying Ukraine
propping them up. Without this happening, that Ukraine would be
in real big trouble. I think you're going to see
also a six hundred mile front. Just talk about the
offense and about I'm listening to analysts say, oh, Ukraine's
getting ready to go on the offense. I sit there
and say with what they have to have? One hundred
and twenty thousand troops themselves, plus six hundred plus artillery
(06:11):
and turanks and mechanized infantry vehicles, bulldozers. There's so many
things that are still lacking from their kit in order
for them to expect the success or. We have the
same thing on the other side. We have this hamburger
machine where we don't want to see Ukraine soldiers getting
thrown into the Russian hamburger machine because the Russians can
defend just as well as anybody. So I think we're
going to see to kind of nt it out here
(06:32):
a North and South Korea. I'm going to see a
DMZ between occupied land. Russia is going to take some
of this Ukraine land. The question is what they take
Crimea or not. That's how this ends. But it's not
ending anytime soon because Russia is going to continue to
fight for at least I think at least for another year.
So is that an argument for arming the Ukrainians more,
giving them the F sixteens, giving them more so that
(06:53):
they can not have it be a war of attrition,
which seems like it's in Russia's favor, but they can
launch it offensive. Well, I still don't think the F
sixteens matter. They don't get there on time, they're they're
not close air support, the kind of um you know,
they need four hundred tanks and then the crews demand them.
They need artillery, you know, five times more artillery. They
(07:15):
need a whole lot more. They need divisions worth of
equipment that we really can't give them. And the other
side that is ammunition. They're already starting to run out.
You heard the NATO commanders say that we're running out
of ammunition, artillery, ammunition, and we'd have to now ramp
that up on our side because we're taking stocks out
of Israel, We've taken stocks out of South Korea, We've
taken stocks out of different places. So we're gonna have
(07:35):
to start making our own ammunition here pretty soon. So
I think that what we're going to continue to do
as best we can as long as Ukraine is holding
the line. From their perspective, I think that's let's just
be happy for Hey. I know, Jack, you want to
ask your big question to Mike in a moment, but
before we get there, just out of curiosity, Mike, because
we have listeners who some not many, who are much
(07:57):
more sympathetic to the Russians side. Then I think a
lot of Americans are. Um, and and we'll say, what's
the matter with you guys? Research it. There actually were
Nazis in don Boss And then Putin's right there, d
nazifying it. What's your take on twenty fourteen on in
the so called Nazis in the situation that part of Ukraine. Yeah,
(08:20):
so that was a problem not solved in twenty fourteen
those separatists that control those areas and the Donbass reason
and then crimeas Russia takes it on again. Look at history,
Wars start like this because problems they can get to
kick down the road. And that's what happened here. Um,
that's possible, that likely could have happened. There could have
been pockets of those kinds of things. Um, it's hard
to project again our culture on anybody else's culture. Eastern
(08:42):
European you know, the Nazification or so and the impact
that that had over eighty years ago withinside of Europe
still trickles out there. It's still out there, and it's
it gets accelerated with social media. But yeah, there's those
two sides to every story, um and and there's those
that want to believe Russia doesn't will come out losing here,
and losing to them will mean likely they still keep Crimeia,
(09:04):
they keep some of those areas in the East, but
they've lost a tremendous face in the ground stage of
the green world. How important is this conflict to the
United States? If Ukraine lost, what would be the national
interest at stake here? Well, we'd have to define losing
for Ukraine. Right, So Ukraine's not going to win by
vanquishing Russia, right, that's not happening. So as long as
(09:25):
Ukraine wins by having some kind of semblance of an
agreement of a new border for whatever that is, and
then the rebuilding of Ukraine starts, it's going to start
with them being part of the EU first and foremost,
and then perhaps five or six years down the road,
maybe they'll be now part of NATO. I think that's
going to be on the table as part of any
(09:45):
of these negotiations, so that I don't see Ukraine losing
at this point because they win by not losing in
some level because Russia now doesn't really have the capability
to vanquish Ukraine in the same side, but in the
same token, neither does Ukraine in the same side. With Russia, well,
is keeping the world order in place at stake or
as you have said in the past, do you feel
(10:05):
this is more of a regional conflict between Ukraine and Russia. No,
it's a regional conflict still. I think that that's European
regional conflict is still first and foremost, and we're fighting
it by proxy. China is a big wild card. But
you now see they want to negotiate a peace settlement.
Why because they recognize their client state Russia doesn't look
very favorable. It looks like they're losing, and now they
(10:28):
don't want to be part of a losing team. But
at the end of the day, it's in both China's
interest in the United States is interest to have a
very weak Russian military. So that's all part of this.
I mean, I know the people are a Pentagon are like, yeah,
let's go keep it up, keep smashing them, because the
more of the Russian military gets destroyed, the lesser threat
they become. Down the road. I think the Chinese feel
the same way about Russia as well. Interesting, Yeah, we
(10:49):
could talk for a day and a half about the
China's relationship with Russia, not just the obvious day to
day stuff, but the historical nature and their shared border
and the rest of it. But perhaps another time military
analyst to Mike Lyons, Mike, it's always enjoyable. Thanks a million,
thanks guy, Thanks for me. Yeah, that's what you opened
the show with. As people, countries and people do what's
in their national interest and maybe the whole war of attrition,
(11:12):
we're in this for the long haul. Our national interest
is wearing down the Russian military and depleting them, spending
them into oblivion. Oh yeah, absolutely, that's absolutely a part
of it. But you know, if I was going to
say one thing semi complimentary about China in its leadership
is they do take the long view. They're often wildly wrong,
(11:33):
but they have the discipline to think about their grandchildren
in a way that American politics is just abysmal. At again,
their system is unspeakably terrible communism and the way they
see humanity, but at least they have some discipline to it.
So yeah, it's entirely possible they're in bed with Russia
(11:55):
to prop up Russia to get good and bled dry.
China is clearly the hedgemon that means the hard ass
in that part of the world. Yeah, one thing, and
I didn't I didn't want to get off track on this.
But the one thing I don't get is the argument.
And this has been going on for a year now.
Now if we give them this it takes training and
(12:16):
it would take two months to get out. Well, a
year has gone by and everybody thinks another year or
two or five is going to go by. So I
don't understand the argument of it take and take month.
It'd be a six months before they'd be in the
country and then you got a trink. But well it
would seem that we have the time. Yeah, let's plant
the oak tree today and see what happens. Yeah. I
don't quite get that argument, but you hear it a
(12:38):
lot
But the fact of the matter is, in the last
couple of months there really hasn't been very much in
the way of territorial gains on the part of the
Russian military, And one of the reasons for that seems
to be that they've mobilized a lot of people, but
they can't really get that many weapons to people. It's
under clear whether or not that's because their industry symbody
isn't efficient enough, or whether or not sanctions or taking
(00:21):
a toll on some of that. But right now you
have a case where people keep talking about an offensive
that's about to happen, but so far very little in
the way of gains. If that offensive is indeed already underway,
If the Russian offensive is underway, it's not impressive so far.
A couple of things on the war in Ukraine and
(00:42):
the one year anniversary of this whole awful thing starting.
I'm into this story for geopolitical reasons, for student history reasons,
for personal reasons of just the humanity, I mean, just awful.
But if you're not into this story, you should be
into it, at least as a taxpayers. We've now spent
one hundred and thirteen billion dollars, and it looks like,
(01:04):
you know, we're going to continue down that road for
some time to come. Two big developments today, on the
one year anniversary, the Biden administration puts out a list
of two hundred entities they're going to sanction harshly for
continuing to do business with Russia when they're not supposed to.
And China put out a peace plan for a ceasefire
between Russia and Ukraine. And blah blah blah blah blah,
(01:25):
speaking of entities that have been getting around the sanctions,
Excuse me for not acting like a kid on Christmas
morning receiving the gift of the Chinese plan. Let's discuss
the past year and what's likely to come. With military analysts,
my clients, Mike served with various military organizations both the
US and Europe throughout his career. You know them from
a number of publications and networks. Mike, how are you, sir?
(01:45):
Take away, guys, great to be back. A year ago,
our own government was saying Kiev could fall in ninety
six hours. What were you thinking a year ago? And
looking back on what you thought, how do you respond? Yeah?
Probably the same Russia had tremendous capability capacity with their military.
They had maneuver space, they had all the things going.
(02:06):
They wound up their military machine, put about one hundred
and eighty thousand troops surrounded Ukraine. Came in from Belarus,
came in from eastern Russia. It should have been over
in three or four days. It should have been a
desert storm had they fought a combined arms fight. But
they instead did what Russia does best, and when a
military perspective comes, they just kind of slug it through,
(02:28):
and they did not use their combined arms advantage, and
Ukraine was able to hold off and hold out for
what was the first few months, and then equipment starts
pouring in, and now we're left with a year later,
with a true stalemate, a war of attrician taking place
on both sides. Well As not only an analyst, but
a man who commanded troops in combat, how would you
(02:49):
describe to the layman the level of underperformance of the
Russian military in this so far? Oh my gosh, it's
hard to think about anything less than what they've done.
I mean, I you know, they had they outnumbered them
the Ukraine military six to one in some areas, to
go on the offense with artillery rounds with combined arms forces.
(03:11):
The fact that you're later the Russians don't control the
airspace is amazing. There was there was no real coordinated
plan on how they were going to take Ukraine down.
I mean, it's talking brass tacks here. But the first
thing the United States hasn't any of these kind of
wars is we go off to all their air defense
platforms and make sure that we own the sky. Now
we have air superiority. Now we roll in the troops
(03:32):
from behind. And they didn't do any of that thing.
They just literally thought that the Ukraine military was just
going to roll through and got punched in the nose
and then and then in the fight when the fight
started happening. Unfortunately, Russian soldiers you know, didn't didn't answer
the bell. I was looking at your Twitter feed. That
picture you put out, is that a young U in
nineteen ninety know of the two privates in my Celcu
(03:55):
lefting well and two privates from my company. We fired.
Everybody claims they fired the first round of the war, right,
so that we fired. We were one of those units
that did. That was a day before the ground war.
Started at Desert Storm. We fired copperhead rounds on targets,
so we were already two miles inside of Iraq before
the war actually started. I remember listening to the VBC saying, Oh, yeah,
(04:16):
the war's going to start here for your son. I'm like, nah, Actually,
the war is already on. We're getting up tomorrow morning,
we're rolling, we're rolling north. So that those are the
two of my good privates there that let's shut that round.
And Russia thought they were going to pull off that
sort of thing where you just you roll in and
take over in a couple of days, and it's a
it's a yeah, it's at the Allures Battle. And this
is where Desert Storm gave this impression that other countries
(04:39):
and other militaries can do this. And the thing about
it is the United States literally practiced for that battle
for the for ten years. They sent units to the
National Training Center. Anyone who's listening knows what I'm talking about.
You go to the National Training Center, you fight that
fight there, you practice. We've practiced that for about ten years.
We showed up from Journey. We showed up with five
hundred thousand troops and that's why that went that way.
(05:00):
Ussia thought that the same thing was going to happen.
They didn't put the same number of troops. They're about
one hundred and eighty thousand or so. They thought the
same thing was going to happen. Didn't recognize you have
to practice that and you have to plan on on
things going that way. So my clients, where are we
now and what's likely to take shape in the next
six months or so. So the history gets to this
spot where both sides are at a stalemate in this
(05:23):
war of attrition. Now, in the past, either side starts
attacking the other side's capability to wage war. Now Ukraine
doesn't have that capability. They can't go on the offense
into Russia. They can't attack you know, tank factories and
ammunition depots inside of Russia where their story where they're made.
Now Russia can. Russia is trying to do that to Ukraine,
but Western supplies keep pouring in. So classic war by
(05:46):
proxy on our side and the West is supplying Ukraine
propping them up. Without this happening, that Ukraine would be
in real big trouble. I think you're going to see
also a six hundred mile front. Just talk about the
offense and about I'm listening to analysts say, oh, Ukraine's
getting ready to go on the offense. I sit there
and say with what they have to have? One hundred
and twenty thousand troops themselves, plus six hundred plus artillery
(06:11):
and turanks and mechanized infantry vehicles, bulldozers. There's so many
things that are still lacking from their kit in order
for them to expect the success or. We have the
same thing on the other side. We have this hamburger
machine where we don't want to see Ukraine soldiers getting
thrown into the Russian hamburger machine because the Russians can
defend just as well as anybody. So I think we're
going to see to kind of nt it out here
(06:32):
a North and South Korea. I'm going to see a
DMZ between occupied land. Russia is going to take some
of this Ukraine land. The question is what they take
Crimea or not. That's how this ends. But it's not
ending anytime soon because Russia is going to continue to
fight for at least I think at least for another year.
So is that an argument for arming the Ukrainians more,
giving them the F sixteens, giving them more so that
(06:53):
they can not have it be a war of attrition,
which seems like it's in Russia's favor, but they can
launch it offensive. Well, I still don't think the F
sixteens matter. They don't get there on time, they're they're
not close air support, the kind of um you know,
they need four hundred tanks and then the crews demand them.
They need artillery, you know, five times more artillery. They
(07:15):
need a whole lot more. They need divisions worth of
equipment that we really can't give them. And the other
side that is ammunition. They're already starting to run out.
You heard the NATO commanders say that we're running out
of ammunition, artillery, ammunition, and we'd have to now ramp
that up on our side because we're taking stocks out
of Israel, We've taken stocks out of South Korea, We've
taken stocks out of different places. So we're gonna have
(07:35):
to start making our own ammunition here pretty soon. So
I think that what we're going to continue to do
as best we can as long as Ukraine is holding
the line. From their perspective, I think that's let's just
be happy for Hey. I know, Jack, you want to
ask your big question to Mike in a moment, but
before we get there, just out of curiosity, Mike, because
we have listeners who some not many, who are much
(07:57):
more sympathetic to the Russians side. Then I think a
lot of Americans are. Um, and and we'll say, what's
the matter with you guys? Research it. There actually were
Nazis in don Boss And then Putin's right there, d
nazifying it. What's your take on twenty fourteen on in
the so called Nazis in the situation that part of Ukraine. Yeah,
(08:20):
so that was a problem not solved in twenty fourteen
those separatists that control those areas and the Donbass reason
and then crimeas Russia takes it on again. Look at history,
Wars start like this because problems they can get to
kick down the road. And that's what happened here. Um,
that's possible, that likely could have happened. There could have
been pockets of those kinds of things. Um, it's hard
to project again our culture on anybody else's culture. Eastern
(08:42):
European you know, the Nazification or so and the impact
that that had over eighty years ago withinside of Europe
still trickles out there. It's still out there, and it's
it gets accelerated with social media. But yeah, there's those
two sides to every story, um and and there's those
that want to believe Russia doesn't will come out losing here,
and losing to them will mean likely they still keep Crimeia,
(09:04):
they keep some of those areas in the East, but
they've lost a tremendous face in the ground stage of
the green world. How important is this conflict to the
United States? If Ukraine lost, what would be the national
interest at stake here? Well, we'd have to define losing
for Ukraine. Right, So Ukraine's not going to win by
vanquishing Russia, right, that's not happening. So as long as
(09:25):
Ukraine wins by having some kind of semblance of an
agreement of a new border for whatever that is, and
then the rebuilding of Ukraine starts, it's going to start
with them being part of the EU first and foremost,
and then perhaps five or six years down the road,
maybe they'll be now part of NATO. I think that's
going to be on the table as part of any
(09:45):
of these negotiations, so that I don't see Ukraine losing
at this point because they win by not losing in
some level because Russia now doesn't really have the capability
to vanquish Ukraine in the same side, but in the
same token, neither does Ukraine in the same side. With Russia, well,
is keeping the world order in place at stake or
as you have said in the past, do you feel
(10:05):
this is more of a regional conflict between Ukraine and Russia. No,
it's a regional conflict still. I think that that's European
regional conflict is still first and foremost, and we're fighting
it by proxy. China is a big wild card. But
you now see they want to negotiate a peace settlement.
Why because they recognize their client state Russia doesn't look
very favorable. It looks like they're losing, and now they
(10:28):
don't want to be part of a losing team. But
at the end of the day, it's in both China's
interest in the United States is interest to have a
very weak Russian military. So that's all part of this.
I mean, I know the people are a Pentagon are like, yeah,
let's go keep it up, keep smashing them, because the
more of the Russian military gets destroyed, the lesser threat
they become. Down the road. I think the Chinese feel
the same way about Russia as well. Interesting, Yeah, we
(10:49):
could talk for a day and a half about the
China's relationship with Russia, not just the obvious day to
day stuff, but the historical nature and their shared border
and the rest of it. But perhaps another time military
analyst to Mike Lyons, Mike, it's always enjoyable. Thanks a million,
thanks guy, Thanks for me. Yeah, that's what you opened
the show with. As people, countries and people do what's
in their national interest and maybe the whole war of attrition,
(11:12):
we're in this for the long haul. Our national interest
is wearing down the Russian military and depleting them, spending
them into oblivion. Oh yeah, absolutely, that's absolutely a part
of it. But you know, if I was going to
say one thing semi complimentary about China in its leadership
is they do take the long view. They're often wildly wrong,
(11:33):
but they have the discipline to think about their grandchildren
in a way that American politics is just abysmal. At again,
their system is unspeakably terrible communism and the way they
see humanity, but at least they have some discipline to it.
So yeah, it's entirely possible they're in bed with Russia
(11:55):
to prop up Russia to get good and bled dry.
China is clearly the hedgemon that means the hard ass
in that part of the world. Yeah, one thing, and
I didn't I didn't want to get off track on this.
But the one thing I don't get is the argument.
And this has been going on for a year now.
Now if we give them this it takes training and
(12:16):
it would take two months to get out. Well, a
year has gone by and everybody thinks another year or
two or five is going to go by. So I
don't understand the argument of it take and take month.
It'd be a six months before they'd be in the
country and then you got a trink. But well it
would seem that we have the time. Yeah, let's plant
the oak tree today and see what happens. Yeah. I
don't quite get that argument, but you hear it a
(12:38):
lot
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On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!