Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's always good to have Ernie Goss back with us.
(00:01):
Are official economists from Creighton University ear.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Any good morning, Hey, very good to be with you,
Rosie and Lucy.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
We talked with Mike Castling a couple of weeks ago
about that that report by the ex Sarbon Foundation that
was kind of sobering about Nebraska business conditions, job losses
because of the brain drain. And now on the heels
of that, here comes a barometer report from the Omaha
(00:32):
Chamber of Commerce that basically echoes the same thing that
that Omaha, Nebraska, primarily because of Omaha, Lincoln is not
keeping up with its peers relative to economic activity and
economic vitality. And I know you monitor these things closely, Ernie.
How bad is it?
Speaker 2 (00:53):
I don't think it's significantly as negatives might be thought.
What's happening is the as most of the listeners know,
between quarter four of twenty twenty four and quarter one
of twenty twenty five, Nebraska and Iowa had the worst
growth in the nation, and a lot of that can
be traced back to agriculture. What we're seeing in agriculture
(01:14):
right now is a recession. Also, we're seeing manufacturing covering
slightly below growth neutral. So that's what's impacting the Nebraska
negativity and Iowa and for that matter, this region.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
Yeah, but these are the metros that they're talking about
in this report, Omah on Lincoln.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
This specifically, Oh yeah, but farmers by Furniture, and it
speds across in the cities. It has some significant impacts
and we're seeing it. And in Nebraska. If you look
at Nebraska and this we're doing a study on insurance
right now for Iowa, and Iowa gained insurance jobs fairly
(01:52):
significantly and Nebraska lost insurance jobs. Now I don't know
right now the source of the reasons for those losses,
but that's one industry where Nebraska's really not faired very
well recently.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
Are the last year, Yeah, the brain drain issue is
significant because I don't think I mean, when you look
at what has happened in terms of a lifestyle enhancements
and growth and a lot of attractive features of both
of these metropolitan areas, I don't think that's the reason
(02:28):
that we're seeing people leave. It's the availability of the
kind of jobs they need and the kind of jobs
they want, right.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Oh, absolutely, I mean those are long term factors. Nebraska's
suffered brain drain for quite some time. Likewise, almost every
state in this part of the country has had the
light the same experience, of course, and we like to
bring in more people. But again, I think there's too
much focus I believe on saying that, well, how can
(02:58):
we retain these young people, how can we bring young
people here? I think Nebraska should focus, in my judgment,
on what it does best, and that's for in those
are those are individuals who are a bit older. Bringing
those individuals back after you've do I had students that
left here, went to San Francisco. They come back to
Nebraska when they get married or when they get a
(03:19):
bit older, and it's a better place, than my judgment
to live.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
Yeah, I actually have a friend. This was years ago,
but I have a friend that I worked with here
and he moved to San Francisco with his family, worked
out there for years, and he came back to the Midwest.
He said, you know what, he said, that's no place
to raise kids. So that is a factor for sure.
You also, Ernie, have looked carefully and with furrowed brow
(03:43):
rightly so at the state of the agricultural economy across
several states and here in Nebraska, and a lot of producers,
I know soybean producers certainly in particular, are worried about
tariffs and China not buying any soybeans. What is the
state of our agricultural economy right now?
Speaker 2 (04:02):
It's below growth neutral and that's been that way for
almost every month this year, seven out of nine months
below growth neutral, according to our survey. And a lot
to do with, of course, agricultural commodity prices, particularly grain.
Now livestock product prices are much better, but grain prices
the most farmers are below their low growth neutral are
(04:25):
losing money on the three crops that we focus on
that would be corns, so I mean wheat those crops
right now? Are the farmers are losing money? Seventy five
percent of the farmers are. Seventy five percent of the
bankers that we survey reported negative tariff impacts for the
agricultural sector. So those tariffs are having some negative impacts
on the agricultural sector already.
Speaker 1 (04:46):
What are the bankers? What's the banker's connection there when
you survey them, what are you looking for?
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Well, we're asking them how that farm sector is doing.
We ask them about loans. Loan repayments. Now, that's been
fairly good right there. In other words, the farmers are
in some tough times right now, but they're continuing to
pay back their loans and that's looking pretty good. But
we've got to see some price increases in agriculture otherwise,
we got we're the farmers in this part of the country,
(05:14):
and for that matter, the nation are really having a
tough time of it right now.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
Yeah, we really don't. And it's not going to help
I suppose. I mean, you want you plant corn, you
hope for timely rain and a bumper crop. Well we've
got a bumper crop this year, so that's not going
to help prices.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
That's right. In other words, one of the reasons it's
all about demand and supply. Demand is low because of
the global situation. Supplies is tough because we've got really
good good supplies.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
Okay, so down. So what's the good news, earnie, We've
got good news? We've got any good news?
Speaker 2 (05:49):
The good.
Speaker 3 (05:52):
Has it been raining?
Speaker 1 (05:52):
We got any good news?
Speaker 3 (05:53):
That's the best part.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Oh. What the good news is the economy continues to
do and except for those three the three sectors of construction, agriculture,
and manufacturing. Except for those three through kind of economies
moving along pretty well. We'll have to wait and see
this Friday. This Friday, we have the personal consumption expenditure
or inflation gage that comes out. That's going to be very,
(06:18):
very important. If that thing is three tenths of one
percent month over month, are are about to say two
point eight two point nine percent year over year, that
could push the Fed to hold off on interest rate cuts.
Speaker 3 (06:30):
We might have to have you back in six months
or a year, Ernie, to talk about the H one
before that. But yeah, having but on this issue, the
H one visas that are now one hundred thousand dollars,
they were five thousand dollars. And the idea is to
get the American high tech workers in here rather than
those from India. But this this H one four BVSA,
(06:53):
I think it is has been easy to get if
you're a foreigner, but it's not going to get easy
to get any not going to be easy to get
any more. Or and how that will affect some of
the high tech sectors and maybe medical Madison.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
Rosie, that's a big mistake. Think about here. We are
talking about brain drain for US trying to recruit New
Yorkers and South DA code inspect to Nebraska and here
we saying, no, we don't want this brain, these brains
from other nations to come in. That's a one hundred
thousand dollars Small businesses cannot afford to do that.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
The business negative.
Speaker 3 (07:31):
The businesses would pay, well, somebody's got to pay now,
the super right, Yeah, the super big businesses, they'll pay
one hundred thousand to get the very best guy out
of India. But a lot of small to medium sized
companies they'll be priced out, and so they'll have to
take somebody else. Ideally, the American universities will kick out
those quality employees. But right now India is doing it,
you know, speaking.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
Of India particularly and Asia in general. Ernie, you'll like this,
uh doctor friend of mine, so because I asked him,
why are there so many Asian physicians? And oh my,
I said, because because we're smart? Yeah, h one b
visas well. No, no, no, he said, because we let
them train them and then we recruit them. They spend
(08:14):
the money on education over there and we recruit them.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
Well, let's see it. Our high schools are grade schools.
Our colleges are not doing what we should be doing,
and that is educating and providing these young men and women,
the older men and women the skills they need STEM
for example, STEM. We're just not doing it. We depend heavily,
heavily on these men and women come from other nations
(08:40):
to take jobs that Americans are not qualified to take.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
In many cases, they are here on h one B
visas up till now four thousand dollars. Now it's one
hundred thousand dollars to get one of those one time
tariff of one hundred thousand on a foreign at.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
Ernie, thanks always great to be with us. Ernie Goss,
our good friend and official econn must from Creighton University
It's always good to have Ernie Goss back with us.
(00:01):
Are official economists from Creighton University ear.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Any good morning, Hey, very good to be with you,
Rosie and Lucy.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
We talked with Mike Castling a couple of weeks ago
about that that report by the ex Sarbon Foundation that
was kind of sobering about Nebraska business conditions, job losses
because of the brain drain. And now on the heels
of that, here comes a barometer report from the Omaha
(00:32):
Chamber of Commerce that basically echoes the same thing that
that Omaha, Nebraska, primarily because of Omaha, Lincoln is not
keeping up with its peers relative to economic activity and
economic vitality. And I know you monitor these things closely, Ernie.
How bad is it?
Speaker 2 (00:53):
I don't think it's significantly as negatives might be thought.
What's happening is the as most of the listeners know,
between quarter four of twenty twenty four and quarter one
of twenty twenty five, Nebraska and Iowa had the worst
growth in the nation, and a lot of that can
be traced back to agriculture. What we're seeing in agriculture
(01:14):
right now is a recession. Also, we're seeing manufacturing covering
slightly below growth neutral. So that's what's impacting the Nebraska
negativity and Iowa and for that matter, this region.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
Yeah, but these are the metros that they're talking about
in this report, Omah on Lincoln.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
This specifically, Oh yeah, but farmers by Furniture, and it
speds across in the cities. It has some significant impacts
and we're seeing it. And in Nebraska. If you look
at Nebraska and this we're doing a study on insurance
right now for Iowa, and Iowa gained insurance jobs fairly
(01:52):
significantly and Nebraska lost insurance jobs. Now I don't know
right now the source of the reasons for those losses,
but that's one industry where Nebraska's really not faired very
well recently.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
Are the last year, Yeah, the brain drain issue is
significant because I don't think I mean, when you look
at what has happened in terms of a lifestyle enhancements
and growth and a lot of attractive features of both
of these metropolitan areas, I don't think that's the reason
(02:28):
that we're seeing people leave. It's the availability of the
kind of jobs they need and the kind of jobs
they want, right.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Oh, absolutely, I mean those are long term factors. Nebraska's
suffered brain drain for quite some time. Likewise, almost every
state in this part of the country has had the
light the same experience, of course, and we like to
bring in more people. But again, I think there's too
much focus I believe on saying that, well, how can
(02:58):
we retain these young people, how can we bring young
people here? I think Nebraska should focus, in my judgment,
on what it does best, and that's for in those
are those are individuals who are a bit older. Bringing
those individuals back after you've do I had students that
left here, went to San Francisco. They come back to
Nebraska when they get married or when they get a
(03:19):
bit older, and it's a better place, than my judgment
to live.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
Yeah, I actually have a friend. This was years ago,
but I have a friend that I worked with here
and he moved to San Francisco with his family, worked
out there for years, and he came back to the Midwest.
He said, you know what, he said, that's no place
to raise kids. So that is a factor for sure.
You also, Ernie, have looked carefully and with furrowed brow
(03:43):
rightly so at the state of the agricultural economy across
several states and here in Nebraska, and a lot of producers,
I know soybean producers certainly in particular, are worried about
tariffs and China not buying any soybeans. What is the
state of our agricultural economy right now?
Speaker 2 (04:02):
It's below growth neutral and that's been that way for
almost every month this year, seven out of nine months
below growth neutral, according to our survey. And a lot
to do with, of course, agricultural commodity prices, particularly grain.
Now livestock product prices are much better, but grain prices
the most farmers are below their low growth neutral are
(04:25):
losing money on the three crops that we focus on
that would be corns, so I mean wheat those crops
right now? Are the farmers are losing money? Seventy five
percent of the farmers are. Seventy five percent of the
bankers that we survey reported negative tariff impacts for the
agricultural sector. So those tariffs are having some negative impacts
on the agricultural sector already.
Speaker 1 (04:46):
What are the bankers? What's the banker's connection there when
you survey them, what are you looking for?
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Well, we're asking them how that farm sector is doing.
We ask them about loans. Loan repayments. Now, that's been
fairly good right there. In other words, the farmers are
in some tough times right now, but they're continuing to
pay back their loans and that's looking pretty good. But
we've got to see some price increases in agriculture otherwise,
we got we're the farmers in this part of the country,
(05:14):
and for that matter, the nation are really having a
tough time of it right now.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
Yeah, we really don't. And it's not going to help
I suppose. I mean, you want you plant corn, you
hope for timely rain and a bumper crop. Well we've
got a bumper crop this year, so that's not going
to help prices.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
That's right. In other words, one of the reasons it's
all about demand and supply. Demand is low because of
the global situation. Supplies is tough because we've got really
good good supplies.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
Okay, so down. So what's the good news, earnie, We've
got good news? We've got any good news?
Speaker 2 (05:49):
The good.
Speaker 3 (05:52):
Has it been raining?
Speaker 1 (05:52):
We got any good news?
Speaker 3 (05:53):
That's the best part.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Oh. What the good news is the economy continues to
do and except for those three the three sectors of construction, agriculture,
and manufacturing. Except for those three through kind of economies
moving along pretty well. We'll have to wait and see
this Friday. This Friday, we have the personal consumption expenditure
or inflation gage that comes out. That's going to be very,
(06:18):
very important. If that thing is three tenths of one
percent month over month, are are about to say two
point eight two point nine percent year over year, that
could push the Fed to hold off on interest rate cuts.
Speaker 3 (06:30):
We might have to have you back in six months
or a year, Ernie, to talk about the H one
before that. But yeah, having but on this issue, the
H one visas that are now one hundred thousand dollars,
they were five thousand dollars. And the idea is to
get the American high tech workers in here rather than
those from India. But this this H one four BVSA,
(06:53):
I think it is has been easy to get if
you're a foreigner, but it's not going to get easy
to get any not going to be easy to get
any more. Or and how that will affect some of
the high tech sectors and maybe medical Madison.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
Rosie, that's a big mistake. Think about here. We are
talking about brain drain for US trying to recruit New
Yorkers and South DA code inspect to Nebraska and here
we saying, no, we don't want this brain, these brains
from other nations to come in. That's a one hundred
thousand dollars Small businesses cannot afford to do that.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
The business negative.
Speaker 3 (07:31):
The businesses would pay, well, somebody's got to pay now,
the super right, Yeah, the super big businesses, they'll pay
one hundred thousand to get the very best guy out
of India. But a lot of small to medium sized
companies they'll be priced out, and so they'll have to
take somebody else. Ideally, the American universities will kick out
those quality employees. But right now India is doing it,
you know, speaking.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
Of India particularly and Asia in general. Ernie, you'll like this,
uh doctor friend of mine, so because I asked him,
why are there so many Asian physicians? And oh my,
I said, because because we're smart? Yeah, h one b
visas well. No, no, no, he said, because we let
them train them and then we recruit them. They spend
(08:14):
the money on education over there and we recruit them.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
Well, let's see it. Our high schools are grade schools.
Our colleges are not doing what we should be doing,
and that is educating and providing these young men and women,
the older men and women the skills they need STEM
for example, STEM. We're just not doing it. We depend heavily,
heavily on these men and women come from other nations
(08:40):
to take jobs that Americans are not qualified to take.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
In many cases, they are here on h one B
visas up till now four thousand dollars. Now it's one
hundred thousand dollars to get one of those one time
tariff of one hundred thousand on a foreign at.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
Ernie, thanks always great to be with us. Ernie Goss,
our good friend and official econn must from Creighton University
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