Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
At the big symposium out there in Jackson Hole, Wyoming today,
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where later today the Chair of
the Federal Reserve Board, Powell, is set to deliver a
speech which is variously called high stakes and mysterious, and
(00:21):
everybody's holding their breath apparently to see what he will
hint at, if anything, ahead of the expected September rate cut.
And we're joined this morning for a few minutes by
a futurist, Kevin Sirilli, who is in Jackson Hole up
very early.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Kevin, good morning, good morning, Thank you for having me.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
You're welcome. It's good to have you here. And we
have a connection because Jeff Schmid, the chair of the
Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, is there and he has
a vote this year and he's kind of indicated that
them maybe there won't be a rate cut.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
What do you see happening, Well, a couple of things.
That the first and foremost, the big thing is when
Powell speaks in just in a couple of hours, whether
or not he will give any indication of a rate
cut in the month of September. That's what the markets
are going to be reacting to. That's what President Trump
is going to be looking for. Obviously, President Trump has
(01:17):
said he wants to see Powell ower the rates. But
the second factor to all of this is Trump's reaction.
Trump has been very critical in recent weeks, in particular
of Powell and how Powell has been managing the economy,
and in some respects Powell has been somewhat critical of
(01:39):
Trump's tariffs in the way that a FED chairman can be,
which is through economic data and raising concerns about the
policies in various different statements. So I'm looking to see
after Powell's speech the reaction from the President and from
the administration later today as well. But the third piece
(02:00):
to this is this rise of the technology sector that
we've been seeing steadily in recent decades and it's impact
on the Central Bank. Because Powell's term is set to
end in a couple of months, and whomever Trump nominates
to replace him, it will be very interesting to see
(02:20):
the background that that individual has here in Jackson Hole.
This week, there's been a lot of technology and cryptocurrency
individuals who have descended upon Jackson Hole on the sidelines
of this, and it's going to be really interesting to
see how all of this shapes or shakes out.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
Indeed, and when you mentioned tech, I look at the NASDAC.
Nothing much is happening in the pre market this morning.
They're all waiting for that speech. But I here's the deal.
I think there are you know, and I'm a Trump supporter,
but I think Powell has a case. They've got be
(03:00):
worried about inflation and it has not reared, has had
much yet. But I don't know, Kevin, what do you
think Have we seen the impact yet of tariffs?
Speaker 2 (03:12):
You know, it's a great, great question. I think that
in the short term, folks saw the impact of tariffs,
and but I think when you look at the geopolitical
implications of what the tariffs have done, especially when you
look at some of the conflict happening right now, the
military conflict happening right now in other parts of the world. Rightfully,
(03:33):
so Americans are focused on their own economic situations, and
you know, I don't blame them at all, But with
the tariff conversation, I think we it's important to realize
the geopolitical implications and factors that are had in terms
of those discussions. So, you know, But to that point,
(03:57):
I think the rise of artificial intelligence, which by the way,
is something that our culture should celebrate. American innovation unleashed
another great technology into the world that has been a
bright spot in the markets even just this year alone,
and has really helped fuel the market growth this year alone.
(04:18):
But to that point, on the other side of that,
AI has also caused some job loss in certain sectors.
So it's it's a really fascinating time even in I
think I think the FED thought they were getting out
of the pandemic like the rest of us, and that
they could have some certainty. But the advent of AI
and these technological revolutions that we're living through, it's been
(04:42):
unprecedented post pandemic in this new world that we all
live in.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
Well, it's a it was a perfect storm. It was
Joe Biden's monetary policy throwing just massive and massive amounts
of money, government money into the into circulation, the war energy,
the energy policy that essentially shut down a lot of
American oil and fossil fuel production. But I would tell
you that inflation is already here. Talk to the people
(05:07):
of New Jersey, talk to the people of Maine about
their energy bills. Energy in Maine is up thirty five percent,
talk to people about their medical bills, talk to people
about homeowner's insurance, to say that the impact of the tariffs,
we haven't felt it yet.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
Well, well, but I don't think. I don't think that's terror.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
May not. But there is a lot of inflation out
there to everyday American pocketbooks. And that's probably one of
the things Jay Powell is most concerned about. He's going, Okay,
maybe consumer prices aren't rising at nine percent for eggs
like they were a year under Joe Biden. But energy
costs in a lot of parts of this country are
way way up. Utility bills around here are up. We
(05:47):
have people in charge of public power Nebraska that shouldn't
be there.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
That's interesting a lot of other states, as Rosie mentions,
a CPO and that's what that is measured all the time.
But the cost of owning home outrageous that so much
of it is built in is increasing, and that's not measured.
Does the pay attention to that, you know, such.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
Great points that were just made and and you know,
I I totally hear folks on the cost of groceries
and and you know, I'm not going to debate that
at all. And that's a fact. And in terms of
home prices, I mean, it really gets to the point
of modernizing the American dream. I mean, and it is
it is really really tough for UH folks to make
(06:34):
home purchases. And and so to your point specifically, if
that's an indicator that Powell has been looking at, I
think there are a lot of people who are wondering, uh, well,
what's the plan? And so I think, you know, Powell
has been, as seen in many ways as a steady hand.
He was appointed by Trump. It's important as important to
(06:56):
note and when you look at the economic picks of
the Federal Reserve that Trump is appointed or denominations to
Treasury with Treasury Secretary Bestent or Commerce Secretary Lutnik, these
are and even in the first Trump administration, Trump typically
does pick people who are more steady hands when it
(07:18):
and traditional in the sense in the sense of comparing
it to some of his other picks in other parts
of the administration. So it is a really interesting nuance
to the Trump administration policies, but one that we are
very much going to be carefully watching in the next
couple of months as Powell's term is set to expire.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
Can't wait a couple hours till the speech or last Kevin,
thank you so much. Kevin's the early futurist here
At the big symposium out there in Jackson Hole, Wyoming today,
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where later today the Chair of
the Federal Reserve Board, Powell, is set to deliver a
speech which is variously called high stakes and mysterious, and
(00:21):
everybody's holding their breath apparently to see what he will
hint at, if anything, ahead of the expected September rate cut.
And we're joined this morning for a few minutes by
a futurist, Kevin Sirilli, who is in Jackson Hole up
very early.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Kevin, good morning, good morning, Thank you for having me.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
You're welcome. It's good to have you here. And we
have a connection because Jeff Schmid, the chair of the
Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, is there and he has
a vote this year and he's kind of indicated that
them maybe there won't be a rate cut.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
What do you see happening, Well, a couple of things.
That the first and foremost, the big thing is when
Powell speaks in just in a couple of hours, whether
or not he will give any indication of a rate
cut in the month of September. That's what the markets
are going to be reacting to. That's what President Trump
is going to be looking for. Obviously, President Trump has
(01:17):
said he wants to see Powell ower the rates. But
the second factor to all of this is Trump's reaction.
Trump has been very critical in recent weeks, in particular
of Powell and how Powell has been managing the economy,
and in some respects Powell has been somewhat critical of
(01:39):
Trump's tariffs in the way that a FED chairman can be,
which is through economic data and raising concerns about the
policies in various different statements. So I'm looking to see
after Powell's speech the reaction from the President and from
the administration later today as well. But the third piece
(02:00):
to this is this rise of the technology sector that
we've been seeing steadily in recent decades and it's impact
on the Central Bank. Because Powell's term is set to
end in a couple of months, and whomever Trump nominates
to replace him, it will be very interesting to see
(02:20):
the background that that individual has here in Jackson Hole.
This week, there's been a lot of technology and cryptocurrency
individuals who have descended upon Jackson Hole on the sidelines
of this, and it's going to be really interesting to
see how all of this shapes or shakes out.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
Indeed, and when you mentioned tech, I look at the NASDAC.
Nothing much is happening in the pre market this morning.
They're all waiting for that speech. But I here's the deal.
I think there are you know, and I'm a Trump supporter,
but I think Powell has a case. They've got be
(03:00):
worried about inflation and it has not reared, has had
much yet. But I don't know, Kevin, what do you
think Have we seen the impact yet of tariffs?
Speaker 2 (03:12):
You know, it's a great, great question. I think that
in the short term, folks saw the impact of tariffs,
and but I think when you look at the geopolitical
implications of what the tariffs have done, especially when you
look at some of the conflict happening right now, the
military conflict happening right now in other parts of the world. Rightfully,
(03:33):
so Americans are focused on their own economic situations, and
you know, I don't blame them at all, But with
the tariff conversation, I think we it's important to realize
the geopolitical implications and factors that are had in terms
of those discussions. So, you know, But to that point,
(03:57):
I think the rise of artificial intelligence, which by the way,
is something that our culture should celebrate. American innovation unleashed
another great technology into the world that has been a
bright spot in the markets even just this year alone,
and has really helped fuel the market growth this year alone.
(04:18):
But to that point, on the other side of that,
AI has also caused some job loss in certain sectors.
So it's it's a really fascinating time even in I
think I think the FED thought they were getting out
of the pandemic like the rest of us, and that
they could have some certainty. But the advent of AI
and these technological revolutions that we're living through, it's been
(04:42):
unprecedented post pandemic in this new world that we all
live in.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
Well, it's a it was a perfect storm. It was
Joe Biden's monetary policy throwing just massive and massive amounts
of money, government money into the into circulation, the war energy,
the energy policy that essentially shut down a lot of
American oil and fossil fuel production. But I would tell
you that inflation is already here. Talk to the people
(05:07):
of New Jersey, talk to the people of Maine about
their energy bills. Energy in Maine is up thirty five percent,
talk to people about their medical bills, talk to people
about homeowner's insurance, to say that the impact of the tariffs,
we haven't felt it yet.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
Well, well, but I don't think. I don't think that's terror.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
May not. But there is a lot of inflation out
there to everyday American pocketbooks. And that's probably one of
the things Jay Powell is most concerned about. He's going, Okay,
maybe consumer prices aren't rising at nine percent for eggs
like they were a year under Joe Biden. But energy
costs in a lot of parts of this country are
way way up. Utility bills around here are up. We
(05:47):
have people in charge of public power Nebraska that shouldn't
be there.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
That's interesting a lot of other states, as Rosie mentions,
a CPO and that's what that is measured all the time.
But the cost of owning home outrageous that so much
of it is built in is increasing, and that's not measured.
Does the pay attention to that, you know, such.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
Great points that were just made and and you know,
I I totally hear folks on the cost of groceries
and and you know, I'm not going to debate that
at all. And that's a fact. And in terms of
home prices, I mean, it really gets to the point
of modernizing the American dream. I mean, and it is
it is really really tough for UH folks to make
(06:34):
home purchases. And and so to your point specifically, if
that's an indicator that Powell has been looking at, I
think there are a lot of people who are wondering, uh, well,
what's the plan? And so I think, you know, Powell
has been, as seen in many ways as a steady hand.
He was appointed by Trump. It's important as important to
(06:56):
note and when you look at the economic picks of
the Federal Reserve that Trump is appointed or denominations to
Treasury with Treasury Secretary Bestent or Commerce Secretary Lutnik, these
are and even in the first Trump administration, Trump typically
does pick people who are more steady hands when it
(07:18):
and traditional in the sense in the sense of comparing
it to some of his other picks in other parts
of the administration. So it is a really interesting nuance
to the Trump administration policies, but one that we are
very much going to be carefully watching in the next
couple of months as Powell's term is set to expire.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
Can't wait a couple hours till the speech or last Kevin,
thank you so much. Kevin's the early futurist here
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