November 26, 2025 • 38 mins
Kevin covered the following stories: the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the September Producer Price Index and Core Producer Price Index; the Census Bureau announced September Retail Sales; the Conference Board released the Consumer Confidence Index; the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index was released on Tuesday; Kevin has the information, digs into the details, puts the data into historical perspective, offers his insights and opinions.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:10):
This is America's trunck and Network with Kevin Gordon.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Welcome aboard, Thanks for tuning in on this Thanksgiving Eve.
There is a lot of economic news that it was
dumped on us over the last couple of days, which
is kind of as a result of the shut down
and some of these reports being delayed in the tract
on which they normally come out has been pushed up
(00:37):
or pushed back, depending upon what report it is, and
so we got a lot of these reports now. The
American Transportation Research Institute a couple months ago, actually actually
I think last month published a report talking about what
was the most important thing as far as the truck's
trucking industry is concerned. And of course from the owner
(00:57):
operator standpoint is different from the truck drive themselves versus
the trucking executives. But as far as the trucking people
out there, you out in the public that out there
on the road on a day to day basis, the
number one thing on your mind is the economy. And
that's one of the reasons why I spend a lot
of time talking about the economy, because again, what we
(01:19):
are hearing from the spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media,
and what we're hearing in terms of these numbers, in
terms of the headlines, even the difference in the headlines
for the same story when you go from one report
to another is just incredible.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
Let me give you an example here.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
All right, three separate companies are three separate reporting agencies.
Core wholesale prices rose lesson expected in September, which is good,
right now, that's the NBC from Reuters rising energy costs
lift producer prices, lift producer prices in September. That would
say that, okay, well, gee, whiz prices are going up.
(01:59):
According to another I think this is ap producer price
to climb in September as gasoline costs surge, wholesale goods
lead inflation, while service prices hold steady. Now, during those
three different headlines, you get three different impressions of what's
going on. Let's start off with c NBC Producer price
(02:21):
index increase they seasonally adjusted point three percent for September,
in line with the Dow Jones consensus estment. However, excluding
energy and food, the index rows just zero point one
percent below the point two percent estimate. Retail sales increase
point two percent in September a bit softer than the
(02:43):
point three percent forecast. However, sales excluding autos rowse point
three percent. Basically to cut through all the crap there
in terms of what they're saying, is that the bottom
line as far as what inflation is doing. As far
as the producer price index, now this is different than
the consumer price index. Producer price index. The amount is
the prices going into these different wholesalers, the manufacturers, etc.
(03:08):
Going into the production of these items, and then on
the other end, when that goes out to the consumer,
that would be those price increases there. So this is
the increase in prices going to the actual assembly or
the actual wholesale prices that are affecting the wholesale prices,
(03:29):
and so when you see those prices go up, that's.
Speaker 1 (03:31):
Kind of an indicator, a leading indicator.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
Of what you're going to expect as far as consumer prices.
On the other end, but every one of these things,
they talk about energy costs, they talk about rising gasoline prices. Now,
the gasoline prices you would expect again during the summer
driving season, during the tail end when people are on vacation,
you're going to have a lot of people out on
(03:54):
the road, And what happens when you have a lot
of consumers out there, when you have a lot of demand,
you have the normal amount of supply, you're going to
have rising prices. Now, if you notice going into this
Thanksgiving season, they're talking about gasoline prices being the lowest
they've been in a very long time. As a matter
of fact, national average for gasoline prices right now well
(04:17):
as of today, was three dollars and six cents, which
is a little bit below of where it was a
year ago, and a couple of pennies below where it
was a week ago or so. But when you're looking
at these prices, and again, if you're looking at gasoline prices,
the same gasoline prices, if they're even within a couple
of pennies of last year, basically indicates no inflation in
(04:38):
those prices over that period of time. But if you're
focusing just on the month of the particular month, especially
during the summer driving season, when you've got a lot
of people out there on the road and a lot
of consumption, you're going to have rising up prices. And
when you look back over the years, that generally is
(04:59):
the latter part of and then in August, when people
are mostly on vacation, is when you see gas prices
going up during the summer. And then of course at
the end of the summer there you start switching away
and some of these refining refineries shut down a little
bit or closed down for maintenance because they're converting from
the summer blends to the winter blends. And so when
(05:20):
you've got that going into it, that shouldn't be a
situation where people are hitting the panic button. That is
the seasonality type of thing, and it's a typical thing
on a regular basis, But in so many instances, the
spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media just can't help
themselves that they want to portray this economy as terrible
(05:41):
and that prices are rising, that people are panicking because
of inflation. As we talked about yesterday, we were talking
about this story, and in the story itself, they said
people are frustrated after more than five years of increase inflation. Okay,
where was the panic four years ago? Where was the
(06:03):
panic three years ago? Where were these stories two years ago?
Where were these stories a year ago? But we want
to focus on the last eleven months because somebody can't
wave a magic wand and bring prices down considerably. You know,
we've talked in terms of every time they've talked about tariffs,
(06:23):
the tariffs are going to rise and raise inflation, that
they're going to add to inflation, and yet we don't
see it in the numbers.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
It's not reflected in the numbers.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
And then when we looked at the individual costs behind
these things, one of the things too, let me step
back a minute, and as far as these gasoline prices
are concerned, let's not forget the heavy hand of government.
There have been we've reported on here a couple of
times over the summer that as of July or as
of a certain period of time, the gasoline tax from
(06:53):
these individual states have gone up. So if you take
a if you take a three dollars gallon of gasoline
and you add a state sales tax on that or
a gasoline tax on that from a state of three cents,
that's basically a one percent increase in that cost of gasoline.
But see, nobody ever wants to talk about, you know,
(07:14):
we always want to talk about how companies and the
corporations are ripping off the American public. That they're gouging
us as far as prices and concerned. Why doesn't anybody
ever concern themselves with the gouging that we get from
the federal government thirty nine percent top end of the
tax incre of taxes, sales taxes, seven percent, seven percent
(07:36):
in the state of Kentucky. I think in New York
or so it's like nine percent. Where is Why don't
people get concerned about the confiscation of our wealth from
the federal government or from these governmental agencies. Why don't
they talk about government greed in terms of wanting our money.
If you talk to some of these people in the government,
(07:57):
they will talk about, well, you know we let this,
you know we have this, we allow this deduction for people,
and that that really costs the federal I've actually heard
people talk in terms of the interest rate. You know,
when you get your taxes and you figure out your
mortgage and then the interest deduction that you get to
take on your mortgage, the interest that you get to
(08:18):
take in deduction from your taxes.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
People talk in terms of that.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
Do you realize that that interest rate deduction on your
income tax cost the federal government X number of dollars?
What do you mean you mean where the government has
to send us back that money or where we reduct
we deduct that from our taxes. We pay attention to
what the laws have been created by Congress, and we
(08:44):
take advantage of that in terms of reducing our taxes,
and that costs the government. See in that mentality, their
thought is is that every dime you earn is theirs.
Speaker 1 (08:58):
They own.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
Every dime you earn, what you take home, your take
home pay. That's not the amount of money that after
they confiscate your wealth, after they confiscate your taxes, that's
the money you're left with. No, that is the money
they let you keep. In their mind, all the money
you earn is actually theirs. And so when you hear
them talking about, well we need this for that and
(09:20):
all this sort of stuff. Again, why doesn't anybody ever
concentrate on or talk about the greed of government? Anyway,
we'll pick this story up coming up. I'm Kevin Gordon,
America's Trucking Network, seven hundred WLW. I'm Kevin Gordon, America'structing Network,
seven hundred WLW. Talking about these energy prices and talking
(09:43):
about the producer Price Index and so on and they're
talking about how energy prices are increasing and so on, Well.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
Where are the tariffs? As far as that is concerned.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Aren't some of these energy prices as a result of
the regulations that the government has put on these and
the restrictions they put on that creates the tight supply.
The fact that we haven't built a new refinery in
the United States in over forty seven years. Forty seven years,
When was the last time you heard that? Oh, well,
(10:16):
any manufacturing company hasn't changed their manufacturing process in over
forty seven years. How many times have you heard that
a particular company hasn't expanded in forty seven years? Well,
the refining industry with and again when you look at
forty seven years, how our population has grown, how many
(10:37):
more people are out on the highways driving these days,
And the fact that we have our refining capabilities running
about ninety five ninety six percent. I don't know that
there's a business out there that runs at ninety six
percent efficiency. Now, well, accept americastructure network. We generally operate
around well, I'd say about ninety nine percent efficiency. But again,
(11:01):
when you look at different businesses, they don't operate that high.
And yet the petroleum industry, refining industry, they are operating
at ninety five ninety six percent capacity and efficiency. So
when you look at these energy prices, there's a reason
for them. We explain in the for a previous segment,
the fact that when you've got these summer blends that
(11:22):
are in there, they are called they cost more to produce.
They cost because there's more additives in there to reduce pollution,
especially during the summer months. So when those additives are
in there, that increases the cost of gasoline. And of
course during the summer driving season tail end of the
summer driving season, you're going to see more people out
on the road, more people having a vacation, more people
(11:43):
out there, which is a good sign for the economy,
which isn't a bad sign because if there's more consumption
and there's more more consuming of gasoline, that means people
are out there driving, That means that they're out having fun,
they're on vacation, they're spending money make keeping the wheels
of the economy moving along. The cost of energy in
(12:03):
terms of transportation, as far as diesel prices are concerned,
or the diesel amount that's consumed, those indicates that there's
more and more trucks on the road, more and more
stuff being delivered to stores, more and more stuff being
delivered all around the country, and so that would be
a good sign. But these are just seasonal types of things,
and it seems like as though that they want to
(12:26):
concentrate on that. And yet when they look at the
overall producer price index, it is basically unchanged from what
it was back in August. So when you look at that,
it's not going up, it may not be going down.
It's basically the same, and that is not a bad
thing in the overall context of everything. But I just
find it interesting when you look at the individual headlines
(12:47):
rising energy costs, lift producer prices or core or a
better summary core Core wholesale prices rose less than expected
in September.
Speaker 1 (12:59):
Retail s also gain.
Speaker 2 (13:01):
Now I saw another headline that people are encouraged or
talking about despite the tepid retail sales gains. Well, if
retail sales are going and again it depends on how.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
They are viewing this.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
Are they viewing this as a glass half empty or
a glass half full? It depends on the news agency.
When they're looking at the individual prices in terms of
retail sales and what's going on there. There's been some
good news there. Let's see core wholesale prices rose far
listening expected retail sales gain retail sales, I believe we're
(13:39):
up two tenths of a percentage point in September, a
bit softer than the three tenths of a percentage point
that they expected. However, sales excluding autos rose point three percent,
in line with estimates. Misscellaneous retailers saw a two point
nine percent increase on the month, while gas stations, owing
to the higher prices, increased two percent. Sporting goods, hobby
(14:02):
and music stores saw two point five percent decline, and
online sales were off by eight point seven percent. The
fact the gasoline prices that the gasoline stations are selling
more gasoline, that's a good indication in terms of the
strength of the economy. Sales at eating and drinking establishment
and indicator of discretionary spending, increased a solid point seven
(14:24):
percent on the month and were up six point seven
percent from a year ago. Retail sales, which are adjusted
for seasonality but not inflation, increased four point three percent
from a year ago, ahead of the three percent CPI
rate for the month. So the retail sales because of
(14:44):
that one number, because they were expecting it to go
up point three percent over all and it only went
up two point two percent, they were saying that there's
soft retail sales one tenth of a percentage point. In
terms of what the sales are versus what people are
anticipating in terms of an increase that is not that
(15:06):
far off, and to only concentrate on the negative is
one of the things that I talk about in terms
of how the spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media
are trying to manufacture a recession. They are trying to
downplay the economy. They're trying to put the idea in
people's head that things are worse than they actually are.
Speaker 1 (15:27):
Now.
Speaker 2 (15:28):
I know that on a regular basis, when you're talking
about lower income people, they are definitely affected more by
some of these rising prices. But if you're talking about
rising gasoline prices, when you're talking about increase regulatory mandates
on the energy production and that increases the cost, that
(15:52):
is some of the stuff that's affecting the lower end.
Because those people on the lower end of the scale
can't afford that. But when you look at the food
prices overall and what they're doing, and especially at this
time of the year, during the holidays and during Thanksgiving,
as I've said, I'm you know, being out in the
grocery stores and looking at the numbers from last year
(16:12):
that we spent in the Gordon household versus what we're
spending this year. We are below what we were spending
last year. We were a full seventy cents per pound
on the on the turkey that we bought, and instead
of a frozen turkey this year, we bought actually a
fresh organic turkey, which should have pushed that price higher.
(16:34):
But because of the turkey prices and the prices that
are being offered and trying to woo people into the stores,
these stores have actually been reducing their prices to try
to accommodate people in these in these times. And when
you look at Walmart's earnings being up, then you know,
is it, you know, if they're just trying to if
the thinking is is that any of the increases and
(16:57):
prices of stuff from Whole, from Walmart or some of
these retailers are to cover the increased prices to them
in terms of tariffs or increasing prices. Wouldn't you think
that their sales or that their revenue increases would be flat.
But if their prices are going up, that means that
(17:20):
they're charging more for their goods that they can Actually
they've got a bigger cushion because their sales are going up.
I don't know in terms of the number of items
that are being sold, but their retail sales are up significantly,
And so if they are raising their prices, are they
raising their prices as a result of saying that, Oh well,
(17:42):
you know, people are talking about terraffs, people are talking
about the possibility of inflation from that. So if we
increase prices and blame it on tariffs, we'll have some
cover there.
Speaker 1 (17:53):
And I think that's what's going on.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
You know, going back to the pandemic, there was things
going on in the food service industry and different businesses
where they were blaming things on the supply chain issues.
But it was a matter of basically not being able
to get the employees back from being laid off and
being terminated and so on building back the infrastructure there
as far as your employees, plus the fact of having
(18:17):
to retrain people in terms of doing the retail sales
and so on at being short short staffed, and the
fact that some of these items that you don't know
where how much volume were going to have, so you
didn't order enough, and so when you run out, blame
it on supply chain issues, when in fact it was.
Speaker 1 (18:38):
Just well, we made a mistake, we didn't order enough.
Speaker 2 (18:40):
And so this business of what I'm seeing in terms
of some of these profits and as far as some
of these companies are concerned, when they're talking about, oh, well,
we had to raise prices because of Terriff's, but they're
making more of a profit than they did last year,
that tells me that they're trying to sneak in some increases.
Speaker 1 (18:56):
That aren't related to terroriffts and that aren't related to.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
Inflation, that they're just artificially raising prices just for the
sake of raising prices. So anyway, that's my two cents worth.
I keep saying two cents worth, and I can't say
that anymore because you know, they stop printing pennings. I'm
Kevin Gordon, america'struck in network. Seven hundred WLW, seven hundred WLW.
(19:26):
I'm Kevin Gordon. This is America's truck in network. Missing
any part of our program, any part of our shows.
Hit up that iHeartRadio app and of course that's brought
to you by our friends at Rest Truck Center. Another
story that I just saw September retail sales rise despite
consumer caution. They talk about US retail sales rose modestly
in September, suggesting some consumers hit the pause button after
(19:49):
several months of robust spending. Sometimes, you know, when people
are spending money at certain times, they just hit the
pause button. And let's not forget that we just had
the back to school, back to school sales and the
back to school spending by people getting their kids back
(20:12):
to school. Let's not for I mean, if you're talking
about retail sales, if you're talking about luxury items, if
you're talking about what they call about income that you
have after you've paid all your discretionary income, the money
that you have left over, if you have any money
left over, have to pay all the requirements you spend
on leisure stuff as far as going out to dinner
(20:35):
or movies or any of those kinds of things. Well,
let's not forget the fact. And I'm not seeing any
of that reflected in these numbers, the fact that you
had back to school expenses coming into play. You had
new clothes for the kids, you had the backpacks, you
had the school supplies, you had the school fees, you
had some of these other things. You know, every time
I remember when our kids were young, when they were
(20:57):
in school, it would always surprise me every year that, Okay,
here are the school fees that come up that you
have to pay at the beginning of the year and thereabouts.
And I was always surprised at how much that went.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
Up year after year after year.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
And it's like you kind of expected, where are you
going to go to complain about it? What are the
fees for? What are they spent on any of this
type of thing. And again, it may be where they're
trying to because of maybe tax rates not going up
as much as they'd like them, or a school having
not being passed, so they're passing along this stuff to
(21:38):
the to the actual you know, the people that are
going to the schools, they pass that along to the parents.
But if going to the back to school and you're
paying all this stuff as far as again, all the
supplies going in, the new clothes, all that sort of
thing that's going to take away from other areas in
the economy where you would normally be spending your money.
(21:59):
So if they make a pause in terms of what
they're saying here, it may be just simply because it's
the back to school effect.
Speaker 1 (22:07):
And so.
Speaker 2 (22:09):
That's why it's so important to dig into these numbers
and explain them, because again, if you just go off
the headlines from the spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media,
I think you're getting a false sense of what's going
on as far as the economic data is concerned. And
I find that I find it, how should I say,
journalistic malpractice so to speak. One of the reports that
(22:33):
came out also with consumer confidence, and that was from
the Conference Board, which is the different from the consumer
Sentiment report we talked about yesterday from the University of Michigan.
Consumer confidence report comes from the Consumer Confidence Index comes
from this Census Bureau, and that is the arm of
(22:55):
the federal government and they come up with their own
idea in terms of consumer confidence and so on. So
the interesting thing here is that some of the key
pieces consumers soured on the current economy and their prospects
for future with worries growing over the ability to find
a job. According to the Conference Board survey released on Tuesday,
(23:15):
the Board's consumer confidence index for November slumped to eighty
eight point seven, a drop of six point eight points
from the prior month, for its lowest reading in seven months. Now,
why would that be, do you suppose could it possibly
have been this drum beat from the spoon federal gurgitators
in mainstream media when the Schumer shutdown was going on,
(23:38):
When this shutdown that should never have been in the
first place. But as we saw some of the Democrats
actually talking about this and saying, well, this is the
only leverage we've got in order to have our issues
paid attention to. So they admitted that they were causing
(23:58):
pain as far as some of these food stamp numbers,
the snap money going out, that they wanted to cause
pain with certain people, hoping that they wouldn't be blamed
for it, that they would blame the administration for that
and not Congress, that they wanted to make a point,
they wanted to show their leverage. Yes, it's going to
(24:20):
cause pain, but it's good for us. And as a
matter of fact, Chuck Show, wasn't it Chuck Schumer that said,
this shutdown is having a very we're winning on this,
We're it's having.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
A positive effect on us.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
So that the hell with you and me, the hell
with the people out there that depended on the snap benefits.
They wanted to make sure that whatever, and really it
boiled down to, they wanted one point five trillion dollars
of additional spending or spending in the budget to take
care of illegal immigrants and the illegal immigrants healthcare. Now,
(24:58):
if we are a U, a Senate, a US Congress,
wouldn't you think the priority would be the American people,
But instead they shut the federal government down for forty
three days, a record, I might add from just for
them to prove a point. Now, if with the constant
drum beat from the spoon feder regurgitators and mainstream media
(25:20):
talking about how this is going to affect families, how
this is going to change things over here, how this
is going to affect and especially when you hear about
air traffic controllers going to work and not getting a paycheck,
our military not getting a paycheck as a result of
the government shut down, The number of furloughed workers that
were out on this, you know that were laid off
(25:41):
during the government shutdown. You know, those are the things
that are going to be drawing on people's mind. And
of course their confidence in terms of the economy is
going to be going down, because again when they look
at that, and they constantly hear bad news from the
spoon federal regurgitators, of course they're going to have a
sour effect. When they looked at the numbers here, let
(26:02):
me see the slump to eighty seven eighty eight point
seven drop a point is six point eight percent points
from the prior month, lowest reading since April econdom a
survey by Dow Jones. We're looking for a reading of
ninety three point two. In addition, the expectations index tumbled
eight point six percent to sixty three point two, the
(26:22):
present situation index, and so on. They go on to
explain the numbers, where the numbers come from, and then
but also in here and I find this interesting that
they made a big deal about a job creation and
jobs going on. Looking at this, they were talking about
the ADP payrolls the private employers that those results, let
(26:49):
me see, talking about the share of workers and jobs
are plentiful, That number was down. People didn't think jobs
were plentiful. Well, again, they're not because we've been in
this situation for the last seven months where corporations are
not firing and they're not hiring, and that's been the case.
But we're not seeing big swings as far as unemployment
(27:09):
numbers on a weekly basis. But the ADP numbers came
out as far as jobs are concerned, the results come
in the same day that payrolls processing firm ADP reported
that private companies shed an average of thirteen thousand, five
hundred jobs over the last four weeks. So thirteen thousand,
five hundred jobs were lost over the last four weeks. Now,
(27:32):
every other month, when they talk about ADP and they
come out with those numbers, they'll say something to the
effect of, well, these numbers are what are being reported,
but they are not a good gauge to look on
because they have not been an indicator of what's going
on in the economy as much as the jobs report
(27:54):
that is going to be done the next day by
the federal government. But nowhere in here in this particular
story do they talk about that this is not a
reliable report in order to.
Speaker 1 (28:06):
Gauge the strength of the economy.
Speaker 2 (28:08):
Yet they'll throw it in here, they'll say that there's
thirteen thirteen, five hundred less jobs over the last four
weeks and just.
Speaker 1 (28:17):
Leave it at that.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
So what kind of impression does that leave in somebody's
mind when they're thinking about the economy and the strength
of the economy. This, again, in my opinion, is journalistic malpractice,
and it just infuriates me the fact that there are
people out there that will cause pain and suffering for
other people and worrisome for people that is unnecessary. I'm
(28:40):
Kevin Gordon, America's Trucking Network seven hundred WLW. This is
America's Trucking Networks seven hundred WLWI and Kevin Gordon one
of the other reports that came out the other day.
And it's interesting you go to some of these websites
that are towards the trucking industry and what they're talking
(29:03):
about on there. It's interesting that a lot of this
economic news is more and more being filtered through their
websites and being released in terms of their audience so
that people know what's going on. And I dig into
these numbers, I dig into the stuff behind the numbers,
I dig into to find the bits and pieces of
(29:23):
the stuff that they're leaving out of these stories that
really kind of either change what the headline is saying
or that makes that headline meaningless. And so many times
what we've done over the last several months is looking
at some of these stories and some of the headlines
just don't match the story. And I can't emphasize that enough.
(29:44):
I was looking at this one particular report today. It
talked about home prices. They were talking about the national
growth and home values continues to accelerate, but in some
of these areas, all they did was focus on home
prices go up one point three percent. That was their
big headline, the headline. And what was interesting is, as
(30:07):
I was looking through this, I thought, well, you know what,
I wonder what the realtor dot com or what the
National Association Realtors.
Speaker 1 (30:16):
Because if you're.
Speaker 2 (30:18):
Depending upon Bloomberg Er, you're depending upon Reuters or AP,
Fox Business or any of these, they are interpreting the
news themselves. But when you're looking at something like home
sale prices, go to the source in terms of the realtors,
because they're the ones that are seeing on a regular basis,
and they will indicate what's a problem and what's not
(30:40):
necessarily a problem. So, going through this particular story from
realtor dot com, national growth and home sales continues to accelerate,
with prices now falling in more than half of the
twenty metro areas tracked by a key index. Now, what
do we keep hearing about over and all, over and over.
We have seen and we talked about this last week
(31:03):
one of the sales reports, one of the stories focusing
on the housing sector. The fact that where you saw
after the pandemic, or as I call it, the plandemic,
how you saw some of these cities that are in
the South that people move there because during the pandemic,
if people could work remotely and weren't going to be
(31:26):
called back into the office, they could work from anywhere,
and so they decided that, well, rather than living in
an area that's extremely cold, will move to a southern
climate or to a more of a resort area such
as Denver or something. So you saw this big influx
of people going into those particular markets, and those markets
(31:46):
were rising five, ten, fifteen percent on a yearly basis
because of all the people coming in. Again, a situation
a supply and demand. You have only a certain number
of houses that are available, you have a bigger amount
of demand for that. So those prices are going to
go up tremendously, and then after a while, those prices
are going to come down. The story we had last
(32:07):
week that showed that since the last time a person
sold a house, they had seen a sixty seven percent
increase in their home value. Now they were talking about
in that same story, and the big headline was nationally,
home sales or home prices are down in nearly fifty
(32:28):
three percent of all the more than fifty three percent
of all homes are now worth less than they were
a couple of months ago. Again, a correction or return,
as somebody pointed out in that article, a return to normalization.
When you have, as I said, into these individual cities
that were very popular during the pandemic and people were
(32:50):
working from home, they were working remotely and weren't working
in the office. They could work from anywhere. So again,
if they move into these areas and those home prices
go up tremendously, at some point in time they're going
to come back down. There's going to be, you know,
basically a market correction like we see in the stock
market from time to time. Sometimes the stock market just
(33:13):
gets hot and people just jump in there because they're
making money and they think we'll shoot. Everybody's got to
jump in here. And then those prices go up, and
at some point in time they level off. People take
some of their earnings off the table, they sell some
of the stock, which then reduces the price, and then
you see a market correction. You're seeing that in the
housing industry. So where you see the single family home
(33:33):
going down in value in some of these cities, it's
because of the rapid increase. And as that story pointed
out last week, the fact that these home values have
gone up about one hundred and sixty seven percent since
the I'm sorry, sixty seven percent since the last time
that home has been sold, and that if the price
(33:54):
reduced by five to seven percent, people are.
Speaker 1 (33:58):
Still way ahead of where they were before.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
So it's not time to be as they kept stressing
in that story, it's not a matter of a panic.
It's not a matter of going back to the housing
crisis like we saw back in two thousand and eight,
two thousand and nine. This is a normalization of what's
going on in the market value single family homes the
US as a measure of repeat transaction rose one point
(34:23):
three percent in September compared to a year earlier. According
to the data from S and P Coe Tilly Cooda
Lidy Case Shiller Index. It marked the weakest annual gain
in home prices since mid twenty twenty three, and was
down from the one point four percent annual gain recorded
(34:46):
in August. So they went up one point three percent
from last from the previous period, but was down one
tenth of a percent from the increase that they had expected.
That is not an in casion the roof is caving
in or the sky is falling. Among the twenty major
metro areas tracked by Case Shiller, home prices fell on
(35:09):
an annual basis in eleven. In eleven, all located in
the south and west. Tampa, Florida. Phoenix continued to see
the largest ever year over year declines in homes prices,
with prices falling four point one four percent. Again, you
have these areas Tampa Phoenix, where people flocked to during
(35:31):
the pandemic. Prices rose exponentially there, way above what the
industry average was at the time, and now there's a
certain amount of correction coming into the play, had nothing
to panic about. And of course, if you bought that
home last year and you now are finding in that
it's four percent less than what it was last year
(35:52):
in terms of value, again it's a matter of well,
when you bought the home, you know, you watch these
shows from time to time and you see these people
going in and you've got the asking price, and then
because there's such a demand that they actually get over
the asking price for that home. Well, if you're getting me,
(36:14):
and generally the home is valued when they put the
house on the market at what the comps are going
to say that that house is worth. And then because
of people being in a bidding war, they drive that
price up. And if people can afford that, you know,
if they've got the amount of down payment, because it
all is all based on you know, the banks looking
at it and appraising it for what it's worth. And
(36:35):
then you know, if people are bidding that up and
having to pay more for it, they're paying an inflated
amount for that item. But it's simply because of something
they want. And unless you're planning on selling that house
you bought last year, right now, you're going to be
in good shape going forward because eventually this price is
going to come back up. So this report, you know,
(36:57):
the way they indicated, at least as far as on
some of the websites that I was looking at, it
was almost like, oh, you know, there's a real panic
going on now again. Tampa is down four percent, Phoenix
is down two percent. But you have certain areas like Minneapolis, Cleveland, Boston,
New York, and Chicago those prices are up. So again, overall,
(37:21):
it seems like things are balancing out. Things are moving
along in the way that they do seasonally within these
certain areas. And because the influx in some of these
more populated areas, more popular areas I should say, during
the pandemic and because of remote work, those things are
leveling off. So again, nothing too much to panic about there.
(37:42):
Gas prices, oil prices, and gas prices. As I said,
going into this holiday season, current average current average of
gasoline is about three dollars and six cents a gallon.
Diesel is at three dollars and seventy nine cents a gallon.
When you look at the last year, diesel prices are
actually up about twenty five cents from this time last year,
(38:03):
while gasoline prices are down about a penny and a half,
so overall they're pretty much the same as they were
last year. And I keep mentioning this the fact that
when you look at the petroleum prices, what is going
into the actual refineries. At the beginnings oil prices are down.
(38:24):
West Texas intermediate crud is down nineteen dollars and ten
cents from the beginning of the year, a twenty five
percent decrease. Brent crude is down seventeen dollars and sixty
cents a barrel, and that's down twenty two percent since
the beginning of the year. I wish some of those
energy costs were reflected into the gasoline prices and bring
(38:45):
those prices down. So again, a lot of economic news
out there, but sorting through it depending upon what the
headline is saying as opposed to
This is America's trunck and Network with Kevin Gordon.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Welcome aboard, Thanks for tuning in on this Thanksgiving Eve.
There is a lot of economic news that it was
dumped on us over the last couple of days, which
is kind of as a result of the shut down
and some of these reports being delayed in the tract
on which they normally come out has been pushed up
(00:37):
or pushed back, depending upon what report it is, and
so we got a lot of these reports now. The
American Transportation Research Institute a couple months ago, actually actually
I think last month published a report talking about what
was the most important thing as far as the truck's
trucking industry is concerned. And of course from the owner
(00:57):
operator standpoint is different from the truck drive themselves versus
the trucking executives. But as far as the trucking people
out there, you out in the public that out there
on the road on a day to day basis, the
number one thing on your mind is the economy. And
that's one of the reasons why I spend a lot
of time talking about the economy, because again, what we
(01:19):
are hearing from the spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media,
and what we're hearing in terms of these numbers, in
terms of the headlines, even the difference in the headlines
for the same story when you go from one report
to another is just incredible.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
Let me give you an example here.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
All right, three separate companies are three separate reporting agencies.
Core wholesale prices rose lesson expected in September, which is good,
right now, that's the NBC from Reuters rising energy costs
lift producer prices, lift producer prices in September. That would
say that, okay, well, gee, whiz prices are going up.
(01:59):
According to another I think this is ap producer price
to climb in September as gasoline costs surge, wholesale goods
lead inflation, while service prices hold steady. Now, during those
three different headlines, you get three different impressions of what's
going on. Let's start off with c NBC Producer price
(02:21):
index increase they seasonally adjusted point three percent for September,
in line with the Dow Jones consensus estment. However, excluding
energy and food, the index rows just zero point one
percent below the point two percent estimate. Retail sales increase
point two percent in September a bit softer than the
(02:43):
point three percent forecast. However, sales excluding autos rowse point
three percent. Basically to cut through all the crap there
in terms of what they're saying, is that the bottom
line as far as what inflation is doing. As far
as the producer price index, now this is different than
the consumer price index. Producer price index. The amount is
the prices going into these different wholesalers, the manufacturers, etc.
(03:08):
Going into the production of these items, and then on
the other end, when that goes out to the consumer,
that would be those price increases there. So this is
the increase in prices going to the actual assembly or
the actual wholesale prices that are affecting the wholesale prices,
(03:29):
and so when you see those prices go up, that's.
Speaker 1 (03:31):
Kind of an indicator, a leading indicator.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
Of what you're going to expect as far as consumer prices.
On the other end, but every one of these things,
they talk about energy costs, they talk about rising gasoline prices. Now,
the gasoline prices you would expect again during the summer
driving season, during the tail end when people are on vacation,
you're going to have a lot of people out on
(03:54):
the road, And what happens when you have a lot
of consumers out there, when you have a lot of demand,
you have the normal amount of supply, you're going to
have rising prices. Now, if you notice going into this
Thanksgiving season, they're talking about gasoline prices being the lowest
they've been in a very long time. As a matter
of fact, national average for gasoline prices right now well
(04:17):
as of today, was three dollars and six cents, which
is a little bit below of where it was a
year ago, and a couple of pennies below where it
was a week ago or so. But when you're looking
at these prices, and again, if you're looking at gasoline prices,
the same gasoline prices, if they're even within a couple
of pennies of last year, basically indicates no inflation in
(04:38):
those prices over that period of time. But if you're
focusing just on the month of the particular month, especially
during the summer driving season, when you've got a lot
of people out there on the road and a lot
of consumption, you're going to have rising up prices. And
when you look back over the years, that generally is
(04:59):
the latter part of and then in August, when people
are mostly on vacation, is when you see gas prices
going up during the summer. And then of course at
the end of the summer there you start switching away
and some of these refining refineries shut down a little
bit or closed down for maintenance because they're converting from
the summer blends to the winter blends. And so when
(05:20):
you've got that going into it, that shouldn't be a
situation where people are hitting the panic button. That is
the seasonality type of thing, and it's a typical thing
on a regular basis, But in so many instances, the
spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media just can't help
themselves that they want to portray this economy as terrible
(05:41):
and that prices are rising, that people are panicking because
of inflation. As we talked about yesterday, we were talking
about this story, and in the story itself, they said
people are frustrated after more than five years of increase inflation. Okay,
where was the panic four years ago? Where was the
(06:03):
panic three years ago? Where were these stories two years ago?
Where were these stories a year ago? But we want
to focus on the last eleven months because somebody can't
wave a magic wand and bring prices down considerably. You know,
we've talked in terms of every time they've talked about tariffs,
(06:23):
the tariffs are going to rise and raise inflation, that
they're going to add to inflation, and yet we don't
see it in the numbers.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
It's not reflected in the numbers.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
And then when we looked at the individual costs behind
these things, one of the things too, let me step
back a minute, and as far as these gasoline prices
are concerned, let's not forget the heavy hand of government.
There have been we've reported on here a couple of
times over the summer that as of July or as
of a certain period of time, the gasoline tax from
(06:53):
these individual states have gone up. So if you take
a if you take a three dollars gallon of gasoline
and you add a state sales tax on that or
a gasoline tax on that from a state of three cents,
that's basically a one percent increase in that cost of gasoline.
But see, nobody ever wants to talk about, you know,
(07:14):
we always want to talk about how companies and the
corporations are ripping off the American public. That they're gouging
us as far as prices and concerned. Why doesn't anybody
ever concern themselves with the gouging that we get from
the federal government thirty nine percent top end of the
tax incre of taxes, sales taxes, seven percent, seven percent
(07:36):
in the state of Kentucky. I think in New York
or so it's like nine percent. Where is Why don't
people get concerned about the confiscation of our wealth from
the federal government or from these governmental agencies. Why don't
they talk about government greed in terms of wanting our money.
If you talk to some of these people in the government,
(07:57):
they will talk about, well, you know we let this,
you know we have this, we allow this deduction for people,
and that that really costs the federal I've actually heard
people talk in terms of the interest rate. You know,
when you get your taxes and you figure out your
mortgage and then the interest deduction that you get to
take on your mortgage, the interest that you get to
(08:18):
take in deduction from your taxes.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
People talk in terms of that.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
Do you realize that that interest rate deduction on your
income tax cost the federal government X number of dollars?
What do you mean you mean where the government has
to send us back that money or where we reduct
we deduct that from our taxes. We pay attention to
what the laws have been created by Congress, and we
(08:44):
take advantage of that in terms of reducing our taxes,
and that costs the government. See in that mentality, their
thought is is that every dime you earn is theirs.
Speaker 1 (08:58):
They own.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
Every dime you earn, what you take home, your take
home pay. That's not the amount of money that after
they confiscate your wealth, after they confiscate your taxes, that's
the money you're left with. No, that is the money
they let you keep. In their mind, all the money
you earn is actually theirs. And so when you hear
them talking about, well we need this for that and
(09:20):
all this sort of stuff. Again, why doesn't anybody ever
concentrate on or talk about the greed of government? Anyway,
we'll pick this story up coming up. I'm Kevin Gordon,
America's Trucking Network, seven hundred WLW. I'm Kevin Gordon, America'structing Network,
seven hundred WLW. Talking about these energy prices and talking
(09:43):
about the producer Price Index and so on and they're
talking about how energy prices are increasing and so on, Well.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
Where are the tariffs? As far as that is concerned.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Aren't some of these energy prices as a result of
the regulations that the government has put on these and
the restrictions they put on that creates the tight supply.
The fact that we haven't built a new refinery in
the United States in over forty seven years. Forty seven years,
When was the last time you heard that? Oh, well,
(10:16):
any manufacturing company hasn't changed their manufacturing process in over
forty seven years. How many times have you heard that
a particular company hasn't expanded in forty seven years? Well,
the refining industry with and again when you look at
forty seven years, how our population has grown, how many
(10:37):
more people are out on the highways driving these days,
And the fact that we have our refining capabilities running
about ninety five ninety six percent. I don't know that
there's a business out there that runs at ninety six
percent efficiency. Now, well, accept americastructure network. We generally operate
around well, I'd say about ninety nine percent efficiency. But again,
(11:01):
when you look at different businesses, they don't operate that high.
And yet the petroleum industry, refining industry, they are operating
at ninety five ninety six percent capacity and efficiency. So
when you look at these energy prices, there's a reason
for them. We explain in the for a previous segment,
the fact that when you've got these summer blends that
(11:22):
are in there, they are called they cost more to produce.
They cost because there's more additives in there to reduce pollution,
especially during the summer months. So when those additives are
in there, that increases the cost of gasoline. And of
course during the summer driving season tail end of the
summer driving season, you're going to see more people out
on the road, more people having a vacation, more people
(11:43):
out there, which is a good sign for the economy,
which isn't a bad sign because if there's more consumption
and there's more more consuming of gasoline, that means people
are out there driving, That means that they're out having fun,
they're on vacation, they're spending money make keeping the wheels
of the economy moving along. The cost of energy in
(12:03):
terms of transportation, as far as diesel prices are concerned,
or the diesel amount that's consumed, those indicates that there's
more and more trucks on the road, more and more
stuff being delivered to stores, more and more stuff being
delivered all around the country, and so that would be
a good sign. But these are just seasonal types of things,
and it seems like as though that they want to
(12:26):
concentrate on that. And yet when they look at the
overall producer price index, it is basically unchanged from what
it was back in August. So when you look at that,
it's not going up, it may not be going down.
It's basically the same, and that is not a bad
thing in the overall context of everything. But I just
find it interesting when you look at the individual headlines
(12:47):
rising energy costs, lift producer prices or core or a
better summary core Core wholesale prices rose less than expected
in September.
Speaker 1 (12:59):
Retail s also gain.
Speaker 2 (13:01):
Now I saw another headline that people are encouraged or
talking about despite the tepid retail sales gains. Well, if
retail sales are going and again it depends on how.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
They are viewing this.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
Are they viewing this as a glass half empty or
a glass half full? It depends on the news agency.
When they're looking at the individual prices in terms of
retail sales and what's going on there. There's been some
good news there. Let's see core wholesale prices rose far
listening expected retail sales gain retail sales, I believe we're
(13:39):
up two tenths of a percentage point in September, a
bit softer than the three tenths of a percentage point
that they expected. However, sales excluding autos rose point three percent,
in line with estimates. Misscellaneous retailers saw a two point
nine percent increase on the month, while gas stations, owing
to the higher prices, increased two percent. Sporting goods, hobby
(14:02):
and music stores saw two point five percent decline, and
online sales were off by eight point seven percent. The
fact the gasoline prices that the gasoline stations are selling
more gasoline, that's a good indication in terms of the
strength of the economy. Sales at eating and drinking establishment
and indicator of discretionary spending, increased a solid point seven
(14:24):
percent on the month and were up six point seven
percent from a year ago. Retail sales, which are adjusted
for seasonality but not inflation, increased four point three percent
from a year ago, ahead of the three percent CPI
rate for the month. So the retail sales because of
(14:44):
that one number, because they were expecting it to go
up point three percent over all and it only went
up two point two percent, they were saying that there's
soft retail sales one tenth of a percentage point. In
terms of what the sales are versus what people are
anticipating in terms of an increase that is not that
(15:06):
far off, and to only concentrate on the negative is
one of the things that I talk about in terms
of how the spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media
are trying to manufacture a recession. They are trying to
downplay the economy. They're trying to put the idea in
people's head that things are worse than they actually are.
Speaker 1 (15:27):
Now.
Speaker 2 (15:28):
I know that on a regular basis, when you're talking
about lower income people, they are definitely affected more by
some of these rising prices. But if you're talking about
rising gasoline prices, when you're talking about increase regulatory mandates
on the energy production and that increases the cost, that
(15:52):
is some of the stuff that's affecting the lower end.
Because those people on the lower end of the scale
can't afford that. But when you look at the food
prices overall and what they're doing, and especially at this
time of the year, during the holidays and during Thanksgiving,
as I've said, I'm you know, being out in the
grocery stores and looking at the numbers from last year
(16:12):
that we spent in the Gordon household versus what we're
spending this year. We are below what we were spending
last year. We were a full seventy cents per pound
on the on the turkey that we bought, and instead
of a frozen turkey this year, we bought actually a
fresh organic turkey, which should have pushed that price higher.
(16:34):
But because of the turkey prices and the prices that
are being offered and trying to woo people into the stores,
these stores have actually been reducing their prices to try
to accommodate people in these in these times. And when
you look at Walmart's earnings being up, then you know,
is it, you know, if they're just trying to if
the thinking is is that any of the increases and
(16:57):
prices of stuff from Whole, from Walmart or some of
these retailers are to cover the increased prices to them
in terms of tariffs or increasing prices. Wouldn't you think
that their sales or that their revenue increases would be flat.
But if their prices are going up, that means that
(17:20):
they're charging more for their goods that they can Actually
they've got a bigger cushion because their sales are going up.
I don't know in terms of the number of items
that are being sold, but their retail sales are up significantly,
And so if they are raising their prices, are they
raising their prices as a result of saying that, Oh well,
(17:42):
you know, people are talking about terraffs, people are talking
about the possibility of inflation from that. So if we
increase prices and blame it on tariffs, we'll have some
cover there.
Speaker 1 (17:53):
And I think that's what's going on.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
You know, going back to the pandemic, there was things
going on in the food service industry and different businesses
where they were blaming things on the supply chain issues.
But it was a matter of basically not being able
to get the employees back from being laid off and
being terminated and so on building back the infrastructure there
as far as your employees, plus the fact of having
(18:17):
to retrain people in terms of doing the retail sales
and so on at being short short staffed, and the
fact that some of these items that you don't know
where how much volume were going to have, so you
didn't order enough, and so when you run out, blame
it on supply chain issues, when in fact it was.
Speaker 1 (18:38):
Just well, we made a mistake, we didn't order enough.
Speaker 2 (18:40):
And so this business of what I'm seeing in terms
of some of these profits and as far as some
of these companies are concerned, when they're talking about, oh, well,
we had to raise prices because of Terriff's, but they're
making more of a profit than they did last year,
that tells me that they're trying to sneak in some increases.
Speaker 1 (18:56):
That aren't related to terroriffts and that aren't related to.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
Inflation, that they're just artificially raising prices just for the
sake of raising prices. So anyway, that's my two cents worth.
I keep saying two cents worth, and I can't say
that anymore because you know, they stop printing pennings. I'm
Kevin Gordon, america'struck in network. Seven hundred WLW, seven hundred WLW.
(19:26):
I'm Kevin Gordon. This is America's truck in network. Missing
any part of our program, any part of our shows.
Hit up that iHeartRadio app and of course that's brought
to you by our friends at Rest Truck Center. Another
story that I just saw September retail sales rise despite
consumer caution. They talk about US retail sales rose modestly
in September, suggesting some consumers hit the pause button after
(19:49):
several months of robust spending. Sometimes, you know, when people
are spending money at certain times, they just hit the
pause button. And let's not forget that we just had
the back to school, back to school sales and the
back to school spending by people getting their kids back
(20:12):
to school. Let's not for I mean, if you're talking
about retail sales, if you're talking about luxury items, if
you're talking about what they call about income that you
have after you've paid all your discretionary income, the money
that you have left over, if you have any money
left over, have to pay all the requirements you spend
on leisure stuff as far as going out to dinner
(20:35):
or movies or any of those kinds of things. Well,
let's not forget the fact. And I'm not seeing any
of that reflected in these numbers, the fact that you
had back to school expenses coming into play. You had
new clothes for the kids, you had the backpacks, you
had the school supplies, you had the school fees, you
had some of these other things. You know, every time
I remember when our kids were young, when they were
(20:57):
in school, it would always surprise me every year that, Okay,
here are the school fees that come up that you
have to pay at the beginning of the year and thereabouts.
And I was always surprised at how much that went.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
Up year after year after year.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
And it's like you kind of expected, where are you
going to go to complain about it? What are the
fees for? What are they spent on any of this
type of thing. And again, it may be where they're
trying to because of maybe tax rates not going up
as much as they'd like them, or a school having
not being passed, so they're passing along this stuff to
(21:38):
the to the actual you know, the people that are
going to the schools, they pass that along to the parents.
But if going to the back to school and you're
paying all this stuff as far as again, all the
supplies going in, the new clothes, all that sort of
thing that's going to take away from other areas in
the economy where you would normally be spending your money.
(21:59):
So if they make a pause in terms of what
they're saying here, it may be just simply because it's
the back to school effect.
Speaker 1 (22:07):
And so.
Speaker 2 (22:09):
That's why it's so important to dig into these numbers
and explain them, because again, if you just go off
the headlines from the spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media,
I think you're getting a false sense of what's going
on as far as the economic data is concerned. And
I find that I find it, how should I say,
journalistic malpractice so to speak. One of the reports that
(22:33):
came out also with consumer confidence, and that was from
the Conference Board, which is the different from the consumer
Sentiment report we talked about yesterday from the University of Michigan.
Consumer confidence report comes from the Consumer Confidence Index comes
from this Census Bureau, and that is the arm of
(22:55):
the federal government and they come up with their own
idea in terms of consumer confidence and so on. So
the interesting thing here is that some of the key
pieces consumers soured on the current economy and their prospects
for future with worries growing over the ability to find
a job. According to the Conference Board survey released on Tuesday,
(23:15):
the Board's consumer confidence index for November slumped to eighty
eight point seven, a drop of six point eight points
from the prior month, for its lowest reading in seven months. Now,
why would that be, do you suppose could it possibly
have been this drum beat from the spoon federal gurgitators
in mainstream media when the Schumer shutdown was going on,
(23:38):
When this shutdown that should never have been in the
first place. But as we saw some of the Democrats
actually talking about this and saying, well, this is the
only leverage we've got in order to have our issues
paid attention to. So they admitted that they were causing
(23:58):
pain as far as some of these food stamp numbers,
the snap money going out, that they wanted to cause
pain with certain people, hoping that they wouldn't be blamed
for it, that they would blame the administration for that
and not Congress, that they wanted to make a point,
they wanted to show their leverage. Yes, it's going to
(24:20):
cause pain, but it's good for us. And as a
matter of fact, Chuck Show, wasn't it Chuck Schumer that said,
this shutdown is having a very we're winning on this,
We're it's having.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
A positive effect on us.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
So that the hell with you and me, the hell
with the people out there that depended on the snap benefits.
They wanted to make sure that whatever, and really it
boiled down to, they wanted one point five trillion dollars
of additional spending or spending in the budget to take
care of illegal immigrants and the illegal immigrants healthcare. Now,
(24:58):
if we are a U, a Senate, a US Congress,
wouldn't you think the priority would be the American people,
But instead they shut the federal government down for forty
three days, a record, I might add from just for
them to prove a point. Now, if with the constant
drum beat from the spoon feder regurgitators and mainstream media
(25:20):
talking about how this is going to affect families, how
this is going to change things over here, how this
is going to affect and especially when you hear about
air traffic controllers going to work and not getting a paycheck,
our military not getting a paycheck as a result of
the government shut down, The number of furloughed workers that
were out on this, you know that were laid off
(25:41):
during the government shutdown. You know, those are the things
that are going to be drawing on people's mind. And
of course their confidence in terms of the economy is
going to be going down, because again when they look
at that, and they constantly hear bad news from the
spoon federal regurgitators, of course they're going to have a
sour effect. When they looked at the numbers here, let
(26:02):
me see the slump to eighty seven eighty eight point
seven drop a point is six point eight percent points
from the prior month, lowest reading since April econdom a
survey by Dow Jones. We're looking for a reading of
ninety three point two. In addition, the expectations index tumbled
eight point six percent to sixty three point two, the
(26:22):
present situation index, and so on. They go on to
explain the numbers, where the numbers come from, and then
but also in here and I find this interesting that
they made a big deal about a job creation and
jobs going on. Looking at this, they were talking about
the ADP payrolls the private employers that those results, let
(26:49):
me see, talking about the share of workers and jobs
are plentiful, That number was down. People didn't think jobs
were plentiful. Well, again, they're not because we've been in
this situation for the last seven months where corporations are
not firing and they're not hiring, and that's been the case.
But we're not seeing big swings as far as unemployment
(27:09):
numbers on a weekly basis. But the ADP numbers came
out as far as jobs are concerned, the results come
in the same day that payrolls processing firm ADP reported
that private companies shed an average of thirteen thousand, five
hundred jobs over the last four weeks. So thirteen thousand,
five hundred jobs were lost over the last four weeks. Now,
(27:32):
every other month, when they talk about ADP and they
come out with those numbers, they'll say something to the
effect of, well, these numbers are what are being reported,
but they are not a good gauge to look on
because they have not been an indicator of what's going
on in the economy as much as the jobs report
(27:54):
that is going to be done the next day by
the federal government. But nowhere in here in this particular
story do they talk about that this is not a
reliable report in order to.
Speaker 1 (28:06):
Gauge the strength of the economy.
Speaker 2 (28:08):
Yet they'll throw it in here, they'll say that there's
thirteen thirteen, five hundred less jobs over the last four
weeks and just.
Speaker 1 (28:17):
Leave it at that.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
So what kind of impression does that leave in somebody's
mind when they're thinking about the economy and the strength
of the economy. This, again, in my opinion, is journalistic malpractice,
and it just infuriates me the fact that there are
people out there that will cause pain and suffering for
other people and worrisome for people that is unnecessary. I'm
(28:40):
Kevin Gordon, America's Trucking Network seven hundred WLW. This is
America's Trucking Networks seven hundred WLWI and Kevin Gordon one
of the other reports that came out the other day.
And it's interesting you go to some of these websites
that are towards the trucking industry and what they're talking
(29:03):
about on there. It's interesting that a lot of this
economic news is more and more being filtered through their
websites and being released in terms of their audience so
that people know what's going on. And I dig into
these numbers, I dig into the stuff behind the numbers,
I dig into to find the bits and pieces of
(29:23):
the stuff that they're leaving out of these stories that
really kind of either change what the headline is saying
or that makes that headline meaningless. And so many times
what we've done over the last several months is looking
at some of these stories and some of the headlines
just don't match the story. And I can't emphasize that enough.
(29:44):
I was looking at this one particular report today. It
talked about home prices. They were talking about the national
growth and home values continues to accelerate, but in some
of these areas, all they did was focus on home
prices go up one point three percent. That was their
big headline, the headline. And what was interesting is, as
(30:07):
I was looking through this, I thought, well, you know what,
I wonder what the realtor dot com or what the
National Association Realtors.
Speaker 1 (30:16):
Because if you're.
Speaker 2 (30:18):
Depending upon Bloomberg Er, you're depending upon Reuters or AP,
Fox Business or any of these, they are interpreting the
news themselves. But when you're looking at something like home
sale prices, go to the source in terms of the realtors,
because they're the ones that are seeing on a regular basis,
and they will indicate what's a problem and what's not
(30:40):
necessarily a problem. So, going through this particular story from
realtor dot com, national growth and home sales continues to accelerate,
with prices now falling in more than half of the
twenty metro areas tracked by a key index. Now, what
do we keep hearing about over and all, over and over.
We have seen and we talked about this last week
(31:03):
one of the sales reports, one of the stories focusing
on the housing sector. The fact that where you saw
after the pandemic, or as I call it, the plandemic,
how you saw some of these cities that are in
the South that people move there because during the pandemic,
if people could work remotely and weren't going to be
(31:26):
called back into the office, they could work from anywhere,
and so they decided that, well, rather than living in
an area that's extremely cold, will move to a southern
climate or to a more of a resort area such
as Denver or something. So you saw this big influx
of people going into those particular markets, and those markets
(31:46):
were rising five, ten, fifteen percent on a yearly basis
because of all the people coming in. Again, a situation
a supply and demand. You have only a certain number
of houses that are available, you have a bigger amount
of demand for that. So those prices are going to
go up tremendously, and then after a while, those prices
are going to come down. The story we had last
(32:07):
week that showed that since the last time a person
sold a house, they had seen a sixty seven percent
increase in their home value. Now they were talking about
in that same story, and the big headline was nationally,
home sales or home prices are down in nearly fifty
(32:28):
three percent of all the more than fifty three percent
of all homes are now worth less than they were
a couple of months ago. Again, a correction or return,
as somebody pointed out in that article, a return to normalization.
When you have, as I said, into these individual cities
that were very popular during the pandemic and people were
(32:50):
working from home, they were working remotely and weren't working
in the office. They could work from anywhere. So again,
if they move into these areas and those home prices
go up tremendously, at some point in time they're going
to come back down. There's going to be, you know,
basically a market correction like we see in the stock
market from time to time. Sometimes the stock market just
(33:13):
gets hot and people just jump in there because they're
making money and they think we'll shoot. Everybody's got to
jump in here. And then those prices go up, and
at some point in time they level off. People take
some of their earnings off the table, they sell some
of the stock, which then reduces the price, and then
you see a market correction. You're seeing that in the
housing industry. So where you see the single family home
(33:33):
going down in value in some of these cities, it's
because of the rapid increase. And as that story pointed
out last week, the fact that these home values have
gone up about one hundred and sixty seven percent since
the I'm sorry, sixty seven percent since the last time
that home has been sold, and that if the price
(33:54):
reduced by five to seven percent, people are.
Speaker 1 (33:58):
Still way ahead of where they were before.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
So it's not time to be as they kept stressing
in that story, it's not a matter of a panic.
It's not a matter of going back to the housing
crisis like we saw back in two thousand and eight,
two thousand and nine. This is a normalization of what's
going on in the market value single family homes the
US as a measure of repeat transaction rose one point
(34:23):
three percent in September compared to a year earlier. According
to the data from S and P Coe Tilly Cooda
Lidy Case Shiller Index. It marked the weakest annual gain
in home prices since mid twenty twenty three, and was
down from the one point four percent annual gain recorded
(34:46):
in August. So they went up one point three percent
from last from the previous period, but was down one
tenth of a percent from the increase that they had expected.
That is not an in casion the roof is caving
in or the sky is falling. Among the twenty major
metro areas tracked by Case Shiller, home prices fell on
(35:09):
an annual basis in eleven. In eleven, all located in
the south and west. Tampa, Florida. Phoenix continued to see
the largest ever year over year declines in homes prices,
with prices falling four point one four percent. Again, you
have these areas Tampa Phoenix, where people flocked to during
(35:31):
the pandemic. Prices rose exponentially there, way above what the
industry average was at the time, and now there's a
certain amount of correction coming into the play, had nothing
to panic about. And of course, if you bought that
home last year and you now are finding in that
it's four percent less than what it was last year
(35:52):
in terms of value, again it's a matter of well,
when you bought the home, you know, you watch these
shows from time to time and you see these people
going in and you've got the asking price, and then
because there's such a demand that they actually get over
the asking price for that home. Well, if you're getting me,
(36:14):
and generally the home is valued when they put the
house on the market at what the comps are going
to say that that house is worth. And then because
of people being in a bidding war, they drive that
price up. And if people can afford that, you know,
if they've got the amount of down payment, because it
all is all based on you know, the banks looking
at it and appraising it for what it's worth. And
(36:35):
then you know, if people are bidding that up and
having to pay more for it, they're paying an inflated
amount for that item. But it's simply because of something
they want. And unless you're planning on selling that house
you bought last year, right now, you're going to be
in good shape going forward because eventually this price is
going to come back up. So this report, you know,
(36:57):
the way they indicated, at least as far as on
some of the websites that I was looking at, it
was almost like, oh, you know, there's a real panic
going on now again. Tampa is down four percent, Phoenix
is down two percent. But you have certain areas like Minneapolis, Cleveland, Boston,
New York, and Chicago those prices are up. So again, overall,
(37:21):
it seems like things are balancing out. Things are moving
along in the way that they do seasonally within these
certain areas. And because the influx in some of these
more populated areas, more popular areas I should say, during
the pandemic and because of remote work, those things are
leveling off. So again, nothing too much to panic about there.
(37:42):
Gas prices, oil prices, and gas prices. As I said,
going into this holiday season, current average current average of
gasoline is about three dollars and six cents a gallon.
Diesel is at three dollars and seventy nine cents a gallon.
When you look at the last year, diesel prices are
actually up about twenty five cents from this time last year,
(38:03):
while gasoline prices are down about a penny and a half,
so overall they're pretty much the same as they were
last year. And I keep mentioning this the fact that
when you look at the petroleum prices, what is going
into the actual refineries. At the beginnings oil prices are down.
(38:24):
West Texas intermediate crud is down nineteen dollars and ten
cents from the beginning of the year, a twenty five
percent decrease. Brent crude is down seventeen dollars and sixty
cents a barrel, and that's down twenty two percent since
the beginning of the year. I wish some of those
energy costs were reflected into the gasoline prices and bring
(38:45):
those prices down. So again, a lot of economic news
out there, but sorting through it depending upon what the
headline is saying as opposed to
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