December 12, 2025 • 41 mins
Kevin covered the following stories: the U.S. Labor Department reported the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims; some of the various media outlet's coverage were misleading at best; the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Employment Cost Index which tracks changes changes in wages and benefits; the U.S. Department of Agricuture released their estimates for 2026 cattle prices; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, puts the information into historical perspectve, offers opinions and insights.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is America's Truncking Network with Kevin Gordon. Welcome aboard,
Thanks for tuning in on this Friday morning. We've got
to start off with a little bit of a weather alert,
give you a heads up. We'll have the full forecast
at the bottom of the hour. Significant and catastrophic flooding
in the Pacific Northwest, very cold temperatures in the northern plains.
(00:26):
Lingering rainfall from yesterday's atmospheric river over the Pacific Northwest
exacerbates ongoing catastrophic major river flooding and landslides, which will
continue across portions of western Washington and northwest Oregon for
several days. Arctic air will plummet southward into the northern plains,
(00:50):
bringing temperatures in the single digits to the region today. Now,
in the Greater Cincinni Northern Kentucky area, we are expecting,
or they're been telling us that buy later on this morning,
we should well. The people will be waking up at
five six o'clock in the morning, they'll be seeing anywhere
from three to five inches of snow. So it's going
(01:11):
to be interesting as far as what's going on there.
Of course, the morning commute might be a little bit
difficult in the Greater Sinsaye Northern Kentucky area. But again,
stay tuned to your weather alerts. Make sure that you're
up to date on that. If you're going through an
area you're not familiar with, make sure you're tuning into that.
If you see something that is not part of the
weather report, let the people behind you know what's going on,
(01:32):
and hopefully the people in front of you will let
you know what's going on. Because, as I've said numerous times,
job one is getting home safe. So let's have a
safe trip out there. We got initial job as claims.
Every Thursday, initial jobless claims comes out. Okay, Now, again
this affects the trucking industry because you know, if people
(01:55):
are unemployed, they're not going to be buying as much
and then therefore there's not going to be the need
to deliver stuff to the stores, which then would cut
down on the number of trips that you have to
make and affect the trucking industry. And ever since Liberation
Day on April to second, they kept talking about, well,
you know, we're gonna see a recession. We're gonna see
you you know, the inflation's going to go out of
(02:17):
control because these tariffs are going to go. And oh,
by the way, there is a show where these two
guys are talking about tariffs, and I got to.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Tell you that two of them have no clue what
the hell they're talking about.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
I won't mention their names, but it was I was
listening to it the other day and I just it
was one of those things where when you hear something,
you just you want to jump through the phone and say,
are you guys even know what the hell you're talking about?
Speaker 2 (02:50):
The stuff that you're.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
Saying just doesn't make any sense, and you really obviously
don't know anything about economics. So do yourself a favor,
don't embarrass yourself, and just shut up.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
But anyway, they were talking about how.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
Terrifts said, oh, terriffs will always every time, there's no
way that it won't lead to inflation. We'll look at
an economics book once in a while. You bose those
because if you look at the tariffs over time, terraffs,
especially in the way they're being used now, is a
negotiating tool to get the teriffs lowered. On the other
end of the countries that have been taking advantage of
(03:24):
us in some instances, these tariffs will go up, and
of course yes there will raise prices in certain areas,
but they will lower prices in other areas, so the
overall balance will be a net effect of less inflation.
But yet apparently these guys don't understand that, and just
infuriated me to hear that somebody was actually out there
(03:47):
talking about that and have and so wrong. But anyway,
the initial job as claims comes out every Thursday, and again,
if you know people are unemployed, and going back to
Liberation Day, you know there's gonna be tremendous employment.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
We're going to be.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
You know, they were forecasting and claiming, wringing their hands
that there's going to be a recession, and as you recall,
the stock market on that day took a big plunge.
Well you know, from that day forward, not only have
they recouped those losses, but they have increased since the
first of the year thirty six percent.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
As far as the stock.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
Market even more than that, I believe, and day after
day from time to time, there have been record numbers
in the stock market. So anybody that's got a four
oh one K plan, or anybody that's invested in the
stock market, you are doing well, and you're if you've
got your retirement money in there, you're doing pretty well
at this point as far as you know the stock
(04:44):
market and what people were talking about. Then the stock
market had gone down tremendously and the people panicked, and
whether they were talking about, you know, we're going to
go into a recession and there's going to be rampid inflation,
and they're going to be unemployment and all this sort of.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Stuff, well, none of that is materialized.
Speaker 1 (04:59):
And as fat matter factor, have been numerous situations where
you know, we keep seeing these these headlines retail sales
unexpectedly higher, unemployment unexpectedly lower, job creation unexpectedly higher, and
all of the things that they said we're going to
happen haven't happened. And then we come into you know,
(05:19):
jobless claims on a weekly basis, and sometimes they're up
and sometimes they're down. Last week they were way down
to I think three year lows, and this week, if
this isn't a clear indication of what I have been
saying for a number, well for a long time, I
have said it on this program numerous times from the beginning.
(05:40):
I've been saying this over the last twenty years, as
a matter of fact.
Speaker 2 (05:44):
That the spoon fed regurgitators.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
In the mainstream media are not going to give you
the accurate information. It's been proven as a result of
what we heard about COVID. It's true what we heard
about Joe Biden's mental capabilities. It's true what we heard
in terms terms of any type of inflation numbers or
job numbers, as far as what's going on, as far
(06:07):
as the economy is concerned, as far as who is
ahead in the polls, of the polling that they take,
those are always wrong, and climate change, all the predictions
that they made about climate change. And again, the spoon
fed regurgitators in the mainstream media, as from the beginning
of the Trump administration, they have been trying to talk
(06:27):
down the economy and manufacture recession. Jobless claims came out
yesterday and the headlines, just looking at the individual headlines
from the individual companies of the different reporting sources, Reuters
US weekly job claims post the largest increase in nearly
four and a half years.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Bloomberg US jobless.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
Claims jump by the most since twenty twenty or twenty
after holiday drop. Let's see seeking Alpha initial job as
claims jump past consensus in first week in December four
X factory US job was claims surge after Thanksgiving, but
low layoffs are still the prevailing trend. ABC News US
(07:12):
jobless benefit applications jumped to two hundred and thirty six thousand,
but continuing claims are falling. The best headline that described anything,
and again one of those situations where you start reading
the story and you wonder where the hell they came
up with the headline A group called Seeking Alpha jump
in initial claims signals holiday volatility rather than trouble. Now,
(07:38):
yesterday morning, I had a doctor's appointment, which was early
in the morning.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
I wanted to get it out of.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
The way because I had stuff I wanted to do.
And so at eight thirty in the morning, I'm pulling
up the jobles claims numbers and looking at what the
headlines were, and Reuters at eight thirty in the morning,
we're at about matter of fact, the date on the
here says eight forty six US weekly jobless claims surge
(08:05):
amid seasonal adjustment challenges.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
Not a bad headline.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
The number of and this is the first paragraph, the
number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits surge
last week, but that likely reflected difficulties adjusting the data
for seasonal fluctuations around this time of the year, rather
than a material change in labor market conditions.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
And then they go and talk about the number.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
Two hours later, maybe three hours later, here's their new headline,
same company. US weekly jobless claims posts largest increase in
nearly four and a half years amid seasonal volatility. We'll
get into this. It's just infuriating me. And you tell
me when we get into this story, does the story
(08:52):
match the headline. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's truck in Network
seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
Need this.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
He is the racing report on America's Drugging Network on
seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
NASCAR has reached an agreement with twenty three eleven Racing
in front Row Motor Sports on Thursday, ending NASCAR's anti
trust trial. On its ninth day, Teams attorney Jeffrey Kessler
told Judge Kenneth Bell that he is pleased to say
the parties have positively settled this matter in a way
that will benefit the industry going forward. A document with
the terms of the settlement was reviewed by Judge but
(09:27):
Kenneth Bell, marking the end of the lawsuit brought by
twenty three to eleven in front Row. NASCAR's anti trust
trial stem from a bitter dispute over negotiations for a
new agreement with the charter system that governs the relationship
between NASCAR and its premier teams. Twenty three to eleven
in front Row sued NASCAR Holdings for three hundred and
sixty five million dollars in combined damages. Michael Jordan and
(09:51):
Jim Franz commented on the settlement.
Speaker 4 (09:53):
I mean, like two competitors, obviously we try to get
as much done in each other's favorite but I think
you'll collect and I don't think Jim was any opposite
of me. Was the fans has always been the best,
you know, solution to this old proceed and to the
support itself. The only way they and I've said this
from d Ones, the only way this sport's going to
grow is we have to find some synergy between the
(10:14):
two minutes of each and I think we've gotten to
that point. Unfortunately, it took sixteen months to get to here,
but I think you know, level heads that got us
to this point to where we can actually work together
and grow this sport. I'm very proud about that, and
I think Jim Jim feels a stream and I.
Speaker 5 (10:28):
Do feel the same. But you can get back to
focusing and what we really love, and that's racing. And
we spent a lot of time and I've then, ah,
not really focused on that so much as we need
the things. I feel like that we've made a very
good decision here together.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
I love.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
This is the raething repard on America's Drugging Network on
seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 6 (10:57):
Sake Denis and reporting for a t en It's former
Bengal and Pro Football Hall of Fame or Anthony Munos.
Did you know that ninety five percent of the Anthony
Munhas Foundations funding goes to Revue.
Speaker 1 (11:09):
In the previous segment, I talked about this initial jobless claims.
The same reporting Reuters, the same group comes out with
the headlines and it is amazing how at eight thirty
in the morning they can come up with one headline
and then two hours later come up with a completely
different just to reset the stage.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Eight thirty in.
Speaker 1 (11:32):
The morning, US job as claims claims, US jobless claims
surge amid seasonal adjustment changes. So nothing too terrible there,
But then two hours later, three hours later, US Weekly
Job is claims posts largest increase in nearly four and
a half years amid seasonal volatility.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
Again, yes, that is.
Speaker 1 (11:52):
Probably a line in this story, but is it the story?
If you're just scrolling through the headlines, which a lot
of people are doing now, they just look at the
headline and that's how they get their information.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
So if they see the thing it says.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
Increases in nearly the largest increase in nearly four and
a half years, people are gonna think the job market
is extremely weak.
Speaker 2 (12:14):
So listen to the first the first paragraph of this
The number.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
Of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased by
the most in nearly four and a half years last week. Okay, yeah,
that sounds horrible, but the search likely does not support
a material weakening in the labor market conditions, as the
claims data are volatile around this time of year, does
(12:40):
that justify the headline that they put out there. It's
kind of like if it leads, if it bleeds, it leads.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
Type of thing. Again, in my opinion.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
These spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media are trying
to manufacture a recession, talk down the economy, and quite honestly,
I don't know how much way to say this, but
the headlines that we're seeing from the spoon fed regurgitators
in the mainstream media and what they are talking about
(13:10):
as far as the economy, which is in my opinion,
putting the idea in people's head about the economy versus
what the numbers are saying, and what the job growth
and what the job layoffs and the picture. And as
far as the inflation versus what the inflation was for
the last four years.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
It's like a.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
Reversal of what should have been reported back during the
Biden years when you had in one month you had
the inflation jump up to nine point one percent, and
they talked about, well, you know, it's just a temporary
blip on the radar screen. Things will be back to normal.
It's just, you know, it's transitory. You know, everything's everything's cool,
don't worry about it. It wasn't okay because the massive
(13:53):
increases that we've seen in items up to the up
to the beginning of this year was caused buy them
and nobody in the media talked about it. Now all
of a sudden, things are turning around. Oil prices are
way down, up to twenty five percent lower than what.
Speaker 2 (14:10):
They were at the first of the year.
Speaker 1 (14:12):
Gas prices are now below a doll There are a
couple of states in this country right now that have
actually their gas prices are below two dollars a gallon.
And when you start lowering gasoline prices to the point
where people have more money in their pocket, they have
more you know, they're not spending as much money on
gasoline and on crude oil and heating oil, and that
(14:33):
for their homes. They're going to have more money in
their pockets. They're going to have more money to spend,
and the economy will grow if we could get lion
Jerry Powell to lower interest rates. And I was listening
to somebody the other just yesterday morning talking about, well,
lower interest rates from the Fed, that really doesn't affect
mortgage rates.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
And this person was a real estate person.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
Well, it doesn't directly affect mortgage rates. However, that is
the bend smart number tied to that becomes lower credit
card interest rates tied to that then becomes lower prices
interest rates on car loans, and then eventually, because the
(15:14):
housing market is tied to the banks and tied to
the profitability these banks, the banks can then charge less
as far as our home loans are concerned, because interest
rates along the other way are lower for them in
terms of their operating costs in order to borrow money
from other banks. So again this eventually does filter through
(15:35):
to the mortgage rates. And the person talking about this
that didn't see the correlation unbelievable because when you look
back prior to the plandemic during the Trump administration in
twenty nineteen, we had basically the interest rates the overnight
rate was around zero and the mortgage rates were about
(15:57):
two and a half to three percent. Well, when Biden
took office and that number for the overnight interest rate
went up to five percent and above mortgage rates went
up to seven percent.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
So is there a direct correlation or is it.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
Just you know, filter through the economy and filter through
to those numbers eventually. But again it is an effect
on that. So looking at this again getting into this
first paragraph, but the surge likely does not suggest a
material weakening in the labor market conditions as the claims
data are volatile around this time of the year, so again,
(16:36):
no big deal, but why make a big deal about it?
Speaker 2 (16:39):
As far as the headline is concerned.
Speaker 1 (16:41):
The larger than expected rise of initial jobless claims reported
by the Labor Department on Thursday reversed the sharp drop
the prior week, which had pushed filings to a three
year low.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
Just a week ago.
Speaker 1 (16:56):
The unemployment numbers the initial jobless claims worked to a
three three year low. Economists said that adjusting the data
for seasonal fluctuations is always is always challenging during the
start of the holiday season, and recommended focusing on the
four week moving average to get a better read of
the labor market. The four week average of claims suggest
(17:19):
that the labor market conditions remain stable. According to Stephen Stanley,
Chief US Economists, it's Santander.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
US Capital Markets.
Speaker 1 (17:31):
The bulk of this week to week volunteer volatility.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Is seasonal noise. On an underlying.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
Basis, nothing has changed, but if anything, we would have
to say that initial claims are running slightly below the
long established trend. One of several data points that refute
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's characterization of a shaky labor
market I have I've not heard anybody in any of
(18:03):
these quotes, in any of these stories up to this
point making a comment refuting what Lion Jerry Powell said.
Let me repeat this on an underlying basis. Nothing has changed,
but if anything, we would have to say that the
initial claims are running slightly below the long established trend,
(18:25):
one of the several data points that refutes Federal Reserve
Chairman Jerome Powell's characterization of a shaky labor market. Again,
I've not seen many economists disagreeing with Jerome Powell, and
this is one of the first times I've ever seen
that initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped forty four thousand,
(18:46):
to the biggest increase since mid July of twenty twenty one,
to a seasonally adjusted two hundred and thirty six thousand
for the week end in December sixth the labor market,
the Labor Department said economists pulled by Royers had forecast
two hundred twenty Now, when we've been talking about these
numbers over the last year, they have talked about that
(19:06):
unemployment initial job as claims are generally ranging between two
hundred and ten thousand and two hundred and fifty thousand
at two hundred and thirty six thousand, jumping from a
three year low the previous week up forty four thousand.
It's still within those parameters of the low end at
two hundred and ten thousand or two hundred and fifty
(19:29):
thousand on the high end.
Speaker 2 (19:30):
So rather than pointing that out, they.
Speaker 1 (19:32):
Just try to, I guess, muddy the waters and make
things seem worse than they are talking about. The better
way to gauge this the four week moving average of claims,
which irons out seasonal fluctuations, rose two thousand to two
hundred and sixteen thousand, seven hundred and fifty last week,
So at two hundred and sixteen, you know, a four
(19:55):
week average, it only went up two thousand at two
hundred and sixteen that's at the lower end of that
two hundred and ten to two hundred and fifty thousand
jo initial jobless claims unbelievable, and there's more data in here.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
We'll get to it.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
I'm Kevin Gordon, America's truck at Network seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 7 (20:23):
Here's your trucking forecast for the Try State and the
rest of the country. In the Try State overnight snow
with two to four inches expected for most of us
who are under a winter weather advisory. Three to five
inches possible further south in Kentucky and southern Indiana as
they are under a winter storm warning, so we'll come
to an MD by mid morning Friday, a high at
thirty seven, so moving back into the area Saturday afternoon,
one to three inches of snow expected the high year
(20:46):
thirty as a winter storm watch. We'll start at ten
o'clock in the morning and end at seven o'clock Sunday morning,
with an additional one to three inches of snow possible
Saturday night. Mostly sunny Sunday, but very cold, a high
have only thirteen Nationally, a narrow band of monit to
heavy snow likely from the midwest, upper Ohio Valley and
into the central Appalachians overnight, with the second round of
accumulating snow Friday from the northern Plains moving southeast into
(21:08):
the middle of Mississippi Valley. Like affect snow winding down
but will return late Saturday into Sunday. Dryer wha they're
seen in the Pacific Northwest with flooding impacts continue. Record
warm tempest you're seen across the west, while arctic gaere
will move into the northern plains and upper Mississippi Valley
Friday and Saturday.
Speaker 1 (21:28):
Seven hundred wlw IM Kevin Gordon is as America Struck
in network now.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
I'm focusing on these jobless.
Speaker 1 (21:34):
Claims because it's been in the news today and a
lot of people have made hay with it. And I've
said this before and it bears repeating. When I look
at the economic numbers, when I see what is going on,
I want to give the truth as far as what's
going on. I don't want to go into hyperbole. I
don't want to let something go out there that doesn't
(21:56):
go challenge, goes unchallenged. And as I've said before, I
think the one thing holding back this economy is high
interest rates. We keep hearing a little bit of inklings
of that in terms of when they're looking at new
home sales. Homes being pulled off the market, as we
covered earlier in the week. So these reports where people
(22:17):
are saying, you know what, my house is on the market,
it's going into the winner that generally allows you time
for people to search for homes. I'm just not going
to go through the nonsense of keeping that house on
the list on the market, so they delist them. That
is directly affected because if the houses are selling and
the interest rates are low, people can afford to buy
(22:38):
those homes.
Speaker 2 (22:39):
On the flip side, there's.
Speaker 1 (22:40):
A number of people and record numbers of people that
are actually canceling contracts. They actually establish a contract, say
that there's going to be a closing date, and then
back out of that contract again because of interest rates,
because of the cost of getting a new house and
all the stuff that comes along with that. So I
(23:03):
focus on this because again, if we're talking about whether
or not the economy is strong, whether or not they
are going to be purchases we're looking at.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
I mean, we just.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
Had numbers from Black Friday and Cyber Monday, which were
record numbers. So if people are out of work, if
the economy is crashing the way these spoon fed regurgitators
in the mainstream media hope it does, it bothers me
that they would actually hope this, but apparently they are.
(23:34):
Then I want to make sure that we're getting the
correct information out here on this program, so that you
have ammunition to know that what you're feeling as far
as your economy is concerned, is good. And all this
noise about well, what's going on in the rest of
the economy, we dig into that to make sure that
(23:54):
are those numbers correct? Are they giving us the actual facts?
And when I read stories like this just bothers me
that they can't do a straight up reporting. They always
have to throw stuff in here again, the four week
moving average.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
And if you.
Speaker 1 (24:10):
Missed any of our segments or missed any of our
other shows, make sure you hit up that iHeartRadio app
because all of our shows are there brought to you
buy our friends at Rush Truck Centers Now. Quoting Nancy
Van den Houghton, lead US economists at Oxford Economics, it's
a little surprising that recent layoff announcements haven't translated into
(24:33):
a shift in higher initial claims. An announcement is not
a layoff. If you announce that there are going to
be layoffs that is in the future. Those will get
some indications that they have some of these announcements that
beginning in March, they're going to lay people off in
(24:53):
these companies. Now, whether that happens or not, whether things
turn around with that company and they back off from that.
We don't know, but the initial comment about that, and
so one of the things that she, I guess corrects
herself and says, it may be that some workers who
have lost their jobs have received generous severance packages or
(25:16):
have found other employment, although that is more difficult in
the current labor market with the press rate of hiring.
Not necessary, I mean, not necessarily, but again, at least
she's answering her own question. The Fed on Wednesday cut
in benchmarket overnight rate by twenty five basis points to
the three point fifty three point five zero to three
(25:39):
point seventy five range. US Central Bank has cut interest
rates three times this year. Palell told reporters that the
labor market seems to have significant downside risk, noting there
was an over counting of non farm payrolls, which policymakers
believe was still persisting. This is what I talked about
(26:00):
yesterday when we talk about the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
You remember the brew haha back in September or so,
when the head of that department got fired. When they
announced in September the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that
nine hundred and eleven fewer jobs were created in the
(26:20):
twelve months through March of twenty twenty five, So going
from April of twenty twenty four, during the last year
of the Biden administration, until March of twenty twenty five,
the job estimates, the job creations, the stuff that the
spoon fed regurgitators were telling us how strong the economy was,
that Biden is doing a great job, that he's on
(26:43):
top of everything, that he sharp runs rings around people
around the office, that he's the smartest guy in the room,
et cetera. That those job numbers were overestimated by nine
hundred and eleven thousand. That's on top of the eight
hundred and eight eighteen thousand that were overreported in the
(27:03):
prior twelve months. So the twelve month period of time
from April of twenty twenty three to April of twenty
twenty four, eight hundred and eighteen thousand jobs were overestimated,
and then from the next twelve months nine hundred and
eleven thousand, So just between those two years, more than
(27:24):
what is that one point seven million jobs were overreported,
and so all of the bragging about we have created
sixteen million new jobs during this administration, well maybe not
so much, because that's down about what fourteen to five now,
and then when you take into consideration that act during
(27:45):
the pandemic, there were twenty million people that lost their jobs.
So you are now looking at a situation with their
sixteen thousand that they were claiming. You're still talking about
a four million jobs gap. Tweet you and you can't
consider a replacement job backfilling something and saying that, oh
(28:07):
we have created this, you know, created nothing. All you've
done is ride the wave of these people rehiring the
people that got fired in the first place. It just
and of course, as I keep saying, the spoon federalgurgitators
of the mainStreet media kept misleading us, telling us that
the job market was strong, that all these jobs were
(28:28):
being created.
Speaker 2 (28:29):
Nine hundred and eleven.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
Thousand fewer jobs as of from March that was reported
in September, the equivalent of seventy six thousand fewer jobs
per month. The BLS will publish the final payroll benchmark
revision in February, along with January's employment numbers. The unemployment
of the employment report for November delayed by the Schumer
(28:52):
shutdown for forty three day government shutdown will be released
next Tuesday. It will incorporate October's nonfarm payroll data. The
unemployment rate for October, however, will not be available because
the shutdown prevented them from gathering all that information. So
it'll be interesting to see some of those numbers next week.
But if the as Jerome Powell is saying that, if
(29:15):
these numbers are not reliable and they have not corrected
the method by which they obtain those numbers, how do
we have the confidence that those numbers are going to
be accurate? And the fact that the head of that agency,
who they claim was doing a good job, blew it
by what one point seven million jobs? They'reabout maybe one
(29:39):
point eight million jobs, that that person should keep their job. Now, Okay,
I buy the part that Okay, she doesn't really she's
basically reporting or was reporting, the information that was provided
to her. But if you're embarrassed by the previous year's numbers,
wouldn't you say to those people that are collecting that
(29:59):
number for you to make you look bad, that you
correct the methods there, the methodology by which you're doing this.
Make sure that when you get these numbers to me
that they're accurate, so that the agency doesn't look bad,
but apparently not putting the pressure on them to give
the right information led to this again a second year
of where nine hundred and eleven thousand jobs were overestimated
(30:24):
on top of the eight hundred and eighteen million from
the eight hundred and eighteen thousand from the previous year.
Speaker 2 (30:31):
We'll talk a little bit more about this coming up.
Speaker 1 (30:33):
I'm Kevin Gordon, America's truck and Network seven hundred WLW
News Radio seven hundred WLW and iHeartRadio Station Guarantee Human
seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
HI Hard Radio.
Speaker 6 (30:50):
You know what your customers are doing right this second,
the exact same thing you are listening to me, which.
Speaker 2 (30:55):
Can network seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 1 (30:58):
I'm Kevin Gordon thought on this topic and again as
a recovering accountant, you know, I just I just can't
resist jumping into the numbers, looking at the numbers and saying, Okay,
this doesn't match this, Where is this coming from?
Speaker 2 (31:15):
Does this make any sense? And take it on from
there now.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
What was what's interesting is that when they're talking about
the unemployment claims, we also have the number of the
unemployment rate, which two months ago had gone down to
or three months ago had gone down to four point
two percent, then it jumped up to four point three,
and then the last unemployment number we got that it
(31:41):
was at four point four And yet we haven't seen
any major increases in unemployment. We haven't seen these job
numbers on a weekly basis spike and had been more
within more than what was in that acceptable normal range
of two hundred and ten thousand to two hundred and
(32:02):
fifty thousand. Then we have this number that's the continuing
people that have done their initial jobless claims and then
are on continued benefits.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
They're on out And this is this struck.
Speaker 1 (32:14):
Me in this the number of people receiving unemployment benefits
after an initial week of aid a proxy for hiring,
dropped ninety nine thousand to a seasonally adjusted one point
eight three eight million during the week ending November twenty ninth. Now,
the previous week, they talked about how that number was
(32:37):
now up to one point nine three seven, that it
was creeping up there and it was in a range
that was one of the highest in a couple of
years or something like that. But the difference between one
point eight and one point nine is a five percent drop.
They come in here, and then they say that some
(32:58):
of the decline in the so called continuing claims reflected
the difficulties of seasonally adjusting the data around Thanksgiving holiday
and also could be a result of people exhausting their
eligibility for benefits, which is limited to twenty six weeks
in some states.
Speaker 2 (33:16):
But again, they should have that data. The states should
be able.
Speaker 1 (33:19):
To come up with that number that, well, we had
x number of people that were on the unemployment and
after the twenty six how many people dropped off those roles?
They should be able to get that number very easily.
But when they talk about continuing claims are consistent consistent
with a gradual rise in the unemployment rate, which was
at a four year high of four point four in September,
(33:43):
and they're saying later on that they're expecting that to
go to four point five when they come up with
the unemployment numbers. Well, if the number of people that
are continuing on unemployment has dropped by five percent, wouldn't
you think that would reflect in the unemployment number in
total that maybe that four point five should be maybe
(34:07):
four point zero. It's amazing that you know that when
the numbers don't add up, and people don't, and these
reporters don't bother committing journalism and explaining it.
Speaker 2 (34:20):
We're left to figure this out.
Speaker 1 (34:21):
But I don't think, in my opinion, that that unemployment
number is going to be a lot higher than what
they had originally said.
Speaker 2 (34:30):
So we'll see how that goes. I just don't know.
Speaker 1 (34:34):
I think that the number is going to be lower
because we're not seeing any of these massive unemployment numbers
jump on a weekly basis. And you know, if that
doesn't go up, then how can the people You know,
if you have the initial claims, those are going to
be added to the people that have been on there
for a while. But if that number of people that
(34:55):
have been on there for a while drops by five percent,
then you would think overall that that number is coming down,
that they've either found new positions or have lost their benefits.
And I would imagine that somebody getting close to losing
their benefits would find something in order to make sure
that they're keeping bread on the table and keeping their
families well, keeping a roof over their head. Again, when
(35:18):
we're talking about affordability and we're talking about what's going
on as far as the economy is concerned one of
the things we keep hearing about, or people will started
talking about.
Speaker 2 (35:27):
And isn't it interesting that when.
Speaker 1 (35:30):
Something that people harp on and talk about and keep
flapping their gums about, especially at the first of the year,
you know, Trump was in office for a week, and
they said, I was hearing people saying, well, egg prices
are still high a week.
Speaker 2 (35:47):
What kind of magic Wand do you think somebody can do?
Speaker 1 (35:51):
If you've got the bird flu, if you've got people
killing having to kill off the flocks of chickens, they're
not going to be those dead chickens are not going
to be laying hey. And so if you've got fewer
eggs and you got the same demand, those prices are
going to go up. But egg prices just last week
at our local store, a large, a large large eggs
(36:11):
a dozen was a dollar forty nine. Beginning of the year,
I think that was close to two dollars and ten cents,
two dollars and thirty cents. Nobody's talking about egg prices
anymore now, you know. Then all of a sudden they
jumped on the bandwagon as far as meat prices, Well,
if you've got the you got the people that are
(36:32):
the climbingists that say that, you know, beef cattle or
you know, killing the planet not only with their cow farts,
but the fact that they're doing too much grazing and
that there's too much water that's being used by these
cows in order to this cattle in order to produce,
and farmers in drought areas or having to buy feedstock
(36:53):
and buy actual feed for those animals rather than letting
them go out on the range and graze. Then all
of a sudden they're having to reduce their flock, their
herds rather, and those herds are down around the nineteen
fifty levels. And if you've got twice the population, then
you're going to have a demand and not much of
(37:14):
a supply, So of course this price is going to
go up. USDA lowers cattle price forecast after Tyson plant closes,
which I thought was kind of a weird headline, but
when I read into it, it kind of makes a
little bit more sense. Cattle prices won't rise as much
as previously expected in twenty twenty six, as the closure
of a Tyson food plant is seen loosening competition for
(37:38):
scarce US supplies the Department of agriculture. On December the
ninth lowered its estimates estimates for cattle prices through twenty
twenty six, citing reduced slaughter plant capacity early next year
and recent pricing data. Tyson, the largest meat packers, said
in the late November statement, So the run in cost
(38:01):
of those cattle or the cattle being slaughtered are lower,
which will then be reflected later on in the prices. Also,
they're upping, and Trump has reduced the tariffs on meat
coming in from Argentina.
Speaker 2 (38:16):
Brazil, et cetera.
Speaker 1 (38:18):
So those prices should come in and start reducing those
prices as well.
Speaker 2 (38:22):
But if you're.
Speaker 1 (38:24):
Dealing with the same amount of cattle as nineteen fifty
and your population has doubled, your meat price is going
to go up.
Speaker 2 (38:33):
And so the fact that this is being corrected.
Speaker 1 (38:36):
And coming back down as a result of some of
these adjustments is a good thing. One of the things too,
that I've been talking about as far as inflation is concerned,
we're seeing numbers as far as inflation. However, those numbers
are not reflecting everything in there.
Speaker 2 (38:56):
We're not seeing.
Speaker 1 (38:57):
They keep talking about, well, tarifts are doing this for
doing that, But when you look behind some of the numbers.
A lot of that has to do with employment costs.
People working on the job getting higher pay. And again
I'm not opposed to people getting more pay. I'm all
for that, but if that is adding to inflation, then
(39:17):
people ought to be honest about it and talk about
it and bring it up and say, yes, inflation is up,
but also wages are up, which is making things a
bit more affordable. US employment costs rise at the slowest
pace since twenty twenty one. Annual growth of the US labor
costs accelerated in the third quarter to the slowest pace
(39:40):
in four years, adding to evidence that the softening job
market is helping limit inflationary pressure. The Employment cost Index
that are known as ECI, which tracks changes and wages
and benefits, increase three point five percent in the twelve
months end in September, according to Bureau of Labors out Wednesday.
(40:01):
On an adjusted basis, the gauge rows point eight percent
eight tens of one percent.
Speaker 2 (40:06):
Latest figures highlight the job market.
Speaker 1 (40:08):
And has lost momentum as many employers temper the pace
of hiring while some reduce head counts.
Speaker 2 (40:14):
But again with the economy being.
Speaker 1 (40:16):
In this no hire, no fire, policy because they don't
want to have to retrain their employees. Again, going back
to the pandemic, when people shut down their businesses, trying
to gear back up once the businesses were allowed to
open again, trying to find qualified employees, trying to find
people that were available to come in and fill those
(40:38):
positions was difficult. So rather than having to go through
that again, a lot of employers are hanging on to
the employees that they have and maybe not reducing those
even though with interest rates and the financing not being
able to increase the capacity or increase your business, that
your margins are being cut.
Speaker 2 (40:59):
A little bit.
Speaker 1 (41:00):
But as we've been seeing, there's been an uptick a
little bit in terms of the production, the amount of
people that are coming in, the amount of business that
is being beginning being handled by the current number of employees.
So when you have a bump in what business you're
getting an increase in sale, sometimes the amount of employees
(41:23):
you have can handle up that upward amount before you
have to begin to start hiring new employees. So a
lot of good news. Again, I start contrast between what
the headlines say and what the actual story says. Is
bringing more true today than in most situations. Well, folks,
(41:43):
we're up against clock here. Stay tuned for Retie Radio
at top the hour. I'm Kevin Gordon, America struck In
Network seven hundred WLW
This is America's Truncking Network with Kevin Gordon. Welcome aboard,
Thanks for tuning in on this Friday morning. We've got
to start off with a little bit of a weather alert,
give you a heads up. We'll have the full forecast
at the bottom of the hour. Significant and catastrophic flooding
in the Pacific Northwest, very cold temperatures in the northern plains.
(00:26):
Lingering rainfall from yesterday's atmospheric river over the Pacific Northwest
exacerbates ongoing catastrophic major river flooding and landslides, which will
continue across portions of western Washington and northwest Oregon for
several days. Arctic air will plummet southward into the northern plains,
(00:50):
bringing temperatures in the single digits to the region today. Now,
in the Greater Cincinni Northern Kentucky area, we are expecting,
or they're been telling us that buy later on this morning,
we should well. The people will be waking up at
five six o'clock in the morning, they'll be seeing anywhere
from three to five inches of snow. So it's going
(01:11):
to be interesting as far as what's going on there.
Of course, the morning commute might be a little bit
difficult in the Greater Sinsaye Northern Kentucky area. But again,
stay tuned to your weather alerts. Make sure that you're
up to date on that. If you're going through an
area you're not familiar with, make sure you're tuning into that.
If you see something that is not part of the
weather report, let the people behind you know what's going on,
(01:32):
and hopefully the people in front of you will let
you know what's going on. Because, as I've said numerous times,
job one is getting home safe. So let's have a
safe trip out there. We got initial job as claims.
Every Thursday, initial jobless claims comes out. Okay, Now, again
this affects the trucking industry because you know, if people
(01:55):
are unemployed, they're not going to be buying as much
and then therefore there's not going to be the need
to deliver stuff to the stores, which then would cut
down on the number of trips that you have to
make and affect the trucking industry. And ever since Liberation
Day on April to second, they kept talking about, well,
you know, we're gonna see a recession. We're gonna see
you you know, the inflation's going to go out of
(02:17):
control because these tariffs are going to go. And oh,
by the way, there is a show where these two
guys are talking about tariffs, and I got to.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Tell you that two of them have no clue what
the hell they're talking about.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
I won't mention their names, but it was I was
listening to it the other day and I just it
was one of those things where when you hear something,
you just you want to jump through the phone and say,
are you guys even know what the hell you're talking about?
Speaker 2 (02:50):
The stuff that you're.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
Saying just doesn't make any sense, and you really obviously
don't know anything about economics. So do yourself a favor,
don't embarrass yourself, and just shut up.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
But anyway, they were talking about how.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
Terrifts said, oh, terriffs will always every time, there's no
way that it won't lead to inflation. We'll look at
an economics book once in a while. You bose those
because if you look at the tariffs over time, terraffs,
especially in the way they're being used now, is a
negotiating tool to get the teriffs lowered. On the other
end of the countries that have been taking advantage of
(03:24):
us in some instances, these tariffs will go up, and
of course yes there will raise prices in certain areas,
but they will lower prices in other areas, so the
overall balance will be a net effect of less inflation.
But yet apparently these guys don't understand that, and just
infuriated me to hear that somebody was actually out there
(03:47):
talking about that and have and so wrong. But anyway,
the initial job as claims comes out every Thursday, and again,
if you know people are unemployed, and going back to
Liberation Day, you know there's gonna be tremendous employment.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
We're going to be.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
You know, they were forecasting and claiming, wringing their hands
that there's going to be a recession, and as you recall,
the stock market on that day took a big plunge.
Well you know, from that day forward, not only have
they recouped those losses, but they have increased since the
first of the year thirty six percent.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
As far as the stock.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
Market even more than that, I believe, and day after
day from time to time, there have been record numbers
in the stock market. So anybody that's got a four
oh one K plan, or anybody that's invested in the
stock market, you are doing well, and you're if you've
got your retirement money in there, you're doing pretty well
at this point as far as you know the stock
(04:44):
market and what people were talking about. Then the stock
market had gone down tremendously and the people panicked, and
whether they were talking about, you know, we're going to
go into a recession and there's going to be rampid inflation,
and they're going to be unemployment and all this sort of.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Stuff, well, none of that is materialized.
Speaker 1 (04:59):
And as fat matter factor, have been numerous situations where
you know, we keep seeing these these headlines retail sales
unexpectedly higher, unemployment unexpectedly lower, job creation unexpectedly higher, and
all of the things that they said we're going to
happen haven't happened. And then we come into you know,
(05:19):
jobless claims on a weekly basis, and sometimes they're up
and sometimes they're down. Last week they were way down
to I think three year lows, and this week, if
this isn't a clear indication of what I have been
saying for a number, well for a long time, I
have said it on this program numerous times from the beginning.
(05:40):
I've been saying this over the last twenty years, as
a matter of fact.
Speaker 2 (05:44):
That the spoon fed regurgitators.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
In the mainstream media are not going to give you
the accurate information. It's been proven as a result of
what we heard about COVID. It's true what we heard
about Joe Biden's mental capabilities. It's true what we heard
in terms terms of any type of inflation numbers or
job numbers, as far as what's going on, as far
(06:07):
as the economy is concerned, as far as who is
ahead in the polls, of the polling that they take,
those are always wrong, and climate change, all the predictions
that they made about climate change. And again, the spoon
fed regurgitators in the mainstream media, as from the beginning
of the Trump administration, they have been trying to talk
(06:27):
down the economy and manufacture recession. Jobless claims came out
yesterday and the headlines, just looking at the individual headlines
from the individual companies of the different reporting sources, Reuters
US weekly job claims post the largest increase in nearly
four and a half years.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Bloomberg US jobless.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
Claims jump by the most since twenty twenty or twenty
after holiday drop. Let's see seeking Alpha initial job as
claims jump past consensus in first week in December four
X factory US job was claims surge after Thanksgiving, but
low layoffs are still the prevailing trend. ABC News US
(07:12):
jobless benefit applications jumped to two hundred and thirty six thousand,
but continuing claims are falling. The best headline that described anything,
and again one of those situations where you start reading
the story and you wonder where the hell they came
up with the headline A group called Seeking Alpha jump
in initial claims signals holiday volatility rather than trouble. Now,
(07:38):
yesterday morning, I had a doctor's appointment, which was early
in the morning.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
I wanted to get it out of.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
The way because I had stuff I wanted to do.
And so at eight thirty in the morning, I'm pulling
up the jobles claims numbers and looking at what the
headlines were, and Reuters at eight thirty in the morning,
we're at about matter of fact, the date on the
here says eight forty six US weekly jobless claims surge
(08:05):
amid seasonal adjustment challenges.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
Not a bad headline.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
The number of and this is the first paragraph, the
number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits surge
last week, but that likely reflected difficulties adjusting the data
for seasonal fluctuations around this time of the year, rather
than a material change in labor market conditions.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
And then they go and talk about the number.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
Two hours later, maybe three hours later, here's their new headline,
same company. US weekly jobless claims posts largest increase in
nearly four and a half years amid seasonal volatility. We'll
get into this. It's just infuriating me. And you tell
me when we get into this story, does the story
(08:52):
match the headline. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's truck in Network
seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
Need this.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
He is the racing report on America's Drugging Network on
seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
NASCAR has reached an agreement with twenty three eleven Racing
in front Row Motor Sports on Thursday, ending NASCAR's anti
trust trial. On its ninth day, Teams attorney Jeffrey Kessler
told Judge Kenneth Bell that he is pleased to say
the parties have positively settled this matter in a way
that will benefit the industry going forward. A document with
the terms of the settlement was reviewed by Judge but
(09:27):
Kenneth Bell, marking the end of the lawsuit brought by
twenty three to eleven in front Row. NASCAR's anti trust
trial stem from a bitter dispute over negotiations for a
new agreement with the charter system that governs the relationship
between NASCAR and its premier teams. Twenty three to eleven
in front Row sued NASCAR Holdings for three hundred and
sixty five million dollars in combined damages. Michael Jordan and
(09:51):
Jim Franz commented on the settlement.
Speaker 4 (09:53):
I mean, like two competitors, obviously we try to get
as much done in each other's favorite but I think
you'll collect and I don't think Jim was any opposite
of me. Was the fans has always been the best,
you know, solution to this old proceed and to the
support itself. The only way they and I've said this
from d Ones, the only way this sport's going to
grow is we have to find some synergy between the
(10:14):
two minutes of each and I think we've gotten to
that point. Unfortunately, it took sixteen months to get to here,
but I think you know, level heads that got us
to this point to where we can actually work together
and grow this sport. I'm very proud about that, and
I think Jim Jim feels a stream and I.
Speaker 5 (10:28):
Do feel the same. But you can get back to
focusing and what we really love, and that's racing. And
we spent a lot of time and I've then, ah,
not really focused on that so much as we need
the things. I feel like that we've made a very
good decision here together.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
I love.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
This is the raething repard on America's Drugging Network on
seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 6 (10:57):
Sake Denis and reporting for a t en It's former
Bengal and Pro Football Hall of Fame or Anthony Munos.
Did you know that ninety five percent of the Anthony
Munhas Foundations funding goes to Revue.
Speaker 1 (11:09):
In the previous segment, I talked about this initial jobless claims.
The same reporting Reuters, the same group comes out with
the headlines and it is amazing how at eight thirty
in the morning they can come up with one headline
and then two hours later come up with a completely
different just to reset the stage.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Eight thirty in.
Speaker 1 (11:32):
The morning, US job as claims claims, US jobless claims
surge amid seasonal adjustment changes. So nothing too terrible there,
But then two hours later, three hours later, US Weekly
Job is claims posts largest increase in nearly four and
a half years amid seasonal volatility.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
Again, yes, that is.
Speaker 1 (11:52):
Probably a line in this story, but is it the story?
If you're just scrolling through the headlines, which a lot
of people are doing now, they just look at the
headline and that's how they get their information.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
So if they see the thing it says.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
Increases in nearly the largest increase in nearly four and
a half years, people are gonna think the job market
is extremely weak.
Speaker 2 (12:14):
So listen to the first the first paragraph of this
The number.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
Of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased by
the most in nearly four and a half years last week. Okay, yeah,
that sounds horrible, but the search likely does not support
a material weakening in the labor market conditions, as the
claims data are volatile around this time of year, does
(12:40):
that justify the headline that they put out there. It's
kind of like if it leads, if it bleeds, it leads.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
Type of thing. Again, in my opinion.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
These spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media are trying
to manufacture a recession, talk down the economy, and quite honestly,
I don't know how much way to say this, but
the headlines that we're seeing from the spoon fed regurgitators
in the mainstream media and what they are talking about
(13:10):
as far as the economy, which is in my opinion,
putting the idea in people's head about the economy versus
what the numbers are saying, and what the job growth
and what the job layoffs and the picture. And as
far as the inflation versus what the inflation was for
the last four years.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
It's like a.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
Reversal of what should have been reported back during the
Biden years when you had in one month you had
the inflation jump up to nine point one percent, and
they talked about, well, you know, it's just a temporary
blip on the radar screen. Things will be back to normal.
It's just, you know, it's transitory. You know, everything's everything's cool,
don't worry about it. It wasn't okay because the massive
(13:53):
increases that we've seen in items up to the up
to the beginning of this year was caused buy them
and nobody in the media talked about it. Now all
of a sudden, things are turning around. Oil prices are
way down, up to twenty five percent lower than what.
Speaker 2 (14:10):
They were at the first of the year.
Speaker 1 (14:12):
Gas prices are now below a doll There are a
couple of states in this country right now that have
actually their gas prices are below two dollars a gallon.
And when you start lowering gasoline prices to the point
where people have more money in their pocket, they have
more you know, they're not spending as much money on
gasoline and on crude oil and heating oil, and that
(14:33):
for their homes. They're going to have more money in
their pockets. They're going to have more money to spend,
and the economy will grow if we could get lion
Jerry Powell to lower interest rates. And I was listening
to somebody the other just yesterday morning talking about, well,
lower interest rates from the Fed, that really doesn't affect
mortgage rates.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
And this person was a real estate person.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
Well, it doesn't directly affect mortgage rates. However, that is
the bend smart number tied to that becomes lower credit
card interest rates tied to that then becomes lower prices
interest rates on car loans, and then eventually, because the
(15:14):
housing market is tied to the banks and tied to
the profitability these banks, the banks can then charge less
as far as our home loans are concerned, because interest
rates along the other way are lower for them in
terms of their operating costs in order to borrow money
from other banks. So again this eventually does filter through
(15:35):
to the mortgage rates. And the person talking about this
that didn't see the correlation unbelievable because when you look
back prior to the plandemic during the Trump administration in
twenty nineteen, we had basically the interest rates the overnight
rate was around zero and the mortgage rates were about
(15:57):
two and a half to three percent. Well, when Biden
took office and that number for the overnight interest rate
went up to five percent and above mortgage rates went
up to seven percent.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
So is there a direct correlation or is it.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
Just you know, filter through the economy and filter through
to those numbers eventually. But again it is an effect
on that. So looking at this again getting into this
first paragraph, but the surge likely does not suggest a
material weakening in the labor market conditions as the claims
data are volatile around this time of the year, so again,
(16:36):
no big deal, but why make a big deal about it?
Speaker 2 (16:39):
As far as the headline is concerned.
Speaker 1 (16:41):
The larger than expected rise of initial jobless claims reported
by the Labor Department on Thursday reversed the sharp drop
the prior week, which had pushed filings to a three
year low.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
Just a week ago.
Speaker 1 (16:56):
The unemployment numbers the initial jobless claims worked to a
three three year low. Economists said that adjusting the data
for seasonal fluctuations is always is always challenging during the
start of the holiday season, and recommended focusing on the
four week moving average to get a better read of
the labor market. The four week average of claims suggest
(17:19):
that the labor market conditions remain stable. According to Stephen Stanley,
Chief US Economists, it's Santander.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
US Capital Markets.
Speaker 1 (17:31):
The bulk of this week to week volunteer volatility.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Is seasonal noise. On an underlying.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
Basis, nothing has changed, but if anything, we would have
to say that initial claims are running slightly below the
long established trend. One of several data points that refute
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's characterization of a shaky labor
market I have I've not heard anybody in any of
(18:03):
these quotes, in any of these stories up to this
point making a comment refuting what Lion Jerry Powell said.
Let me repeat this on an underlying basis. Nothing has changed,
but if anything, we would have to say that the
initial claims are running slightly below the long established trend,
(18:25):
one of the several data points that refutes Federal Reserve
Chairman Jerome Powell's characterization of a shaky labor market. Again,
I've not seen many economists disagreeing with Jerome Powell, and
this is one of the first times I've ever seen
that initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped forty four thousand,
(18:46):
to the biggest increase since mid July of twenty twenty one,
to a seasonally adjusted two hundred and thirty six thousand
for the week end in December sixth the labor market,
the Labor Department said economists pulled by Royers had forecast
two hundred twenty Now, when we've been talking about these
numbers over the last year, they have talked about that
(19:06):
unemployment initial job as claims are generally ranging between two
hundred and ten thousand and two hundred and fifty thousand
at two hundred and thirty six thousand, jumping from a
three year low the previous week up forty four thousand.
It's still within those parameters of the low end at
two hundred and ten thousand or two hundred and fifty
(19:29):
thousand on the high end.
Speaker 2 (19:30):
So rather than pointing that out, they.
Speaker 1 (19:32):
Just try to, I guess, muddy the waters and make
things seem worse than they are talking about. The better
way to gauge this the four week moving average of claims,
which irons out seasonal fluctuations, rose two thousand to two
hundred and sixteen thousand, seven hundred and fifty last week,
So at two hundred and sixteen, you know, a four
(19:55):
week average, it only went up two thousand at two
hundred and sixteen that's at the lower end of that
two hundred and ten to two hundred and fifty thousand
jo initial jobless claims unbelievable, and there's more data in here.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
We'll get to it.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
I'm Kevin Gordon, America's truck at Network seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 7 (20:23):
Here's your trucking forecast for the Try State and the
rest of the country. In the Try State overnight snow
with two to four inches expected for most of us
who are under a winter weather advisory. Three to five
inches possible further south in Kentucky and southern Indiana as
they are under a winter storm warning, so we'll come
to an MD by mid morning Friday, a high at
thirty seven, so moving back into the area Saturday afternoon,
one to three inches of snow expected the high year
(20:46):
thirty as a winter storm watch. We'll start at ten
o'clock in the morning and end at seven o'clock Sunday morning,
with an additional one to three inches of snow possible
Saturday night. Mostly sunny Sunday, but very cold, a high
have only thirteen Nationally, a narrow band of monit to
heavy snow likely from the midwest, upper Ohio Valley and
into the central Appalachians overnight, with the second round of
accumulating snow Friday from the northern Plains moving southeast into
(21:08):
the middle of Mississippi Valley. Like affect snow winding down
but will return late Saturday into Sunday. Dryer wha they're
seen in the Pacific Northwest with flooding impacts continue. Record
warm tempest you're seen across the west, while arctic gaere
will move into the northern plains and upper Mississippi Valley
Friday and Saturday.
Speaker 1 (21:28):
Seven hundred wlw IM Kevin Gordon is as America Struck
in network now.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
I'm focusing on these jobless.
Speaker 1 (21:34):
Claims because it's been in the news today and a
lot of people have made hay with it. And I've
said this before and it bears repeating. When I look
at the economic numbers, when I see what is going on,
I want to give the truth as far as what's
going on. I don't want to go into hyperbole. I
don't want to let something go out there that doesn't
(21:56):
go challenge, goes unchallenged. And as I've said before, I
think the one thing holding back this economy is high
interest rates. We keep hearing a little bit of inklings
of that in terms of when they're looking at new
home sales. Homes being pulled off the market, as we
covered earlier in the week. So these reports where people
(22:17):
are saying, you know what, my house is on the market,
it's going into the winner that generally allows you time
for people to search for homes. I'm just not going
to go through the nonsense of keeping that house on
the list on the market, so they delist them. That
is directly affected because if the houses are selling and
the interest rates are low, people can afford to buy
(22:38):
those homes.
Speaker 2 (22:39):
On the flip side, there's.
Speaker 1 (22:40):
A number of people and record numbers of people that
are actually canceling contracts. They actually establish a contract, say
that there's going to be a closing date, and then
back out of that contract again because of interest rates,
because of the cost of getting a new house and
all the stuff that comes along with that. So I
(23:03):
focus on this because again, if we're talking about whether
or not the economy is strong, whether or not they
are going to be purchases we're looking at.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
I mean, we just.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
Had numbers from Black Friday and Cyber Monday, which were
record numbers. So if people are out of work, if
the economy is crashing the way these spoon fed regurgitators
in the mainstream media hope it does, it bothers me
that they would actually hope this, but apparently they are.
(23:34):
Then I want to make sure that we're getting the
correct information out here on this program, so that you
have ammunition to know that what you're feeling as far
as your economy is concerned, is good. And all this
noise about well, what's going on in the rest of
the economy, we dig into that to make sure that
(23:54):
are those numbers correct? Are they giving us the actual facts?
And when I read stories like this just bothers me
that they can't do a straight up reporting. They always
have to throw stuff in here again, the four week
moving average.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
And if you.
Speaker 1 (24:10):
Missed any of our segments or missed any of our
other shows, make sure you hit up that iHeartRadio app
because all of our shows are there brought to you
buy our friends at Rush Truck Centers Now. Quoting Nancy
Van den Houghton, lead US economists at Oxford Economics, it's
a little surprising that recent layoff announcements haven't translated into
(24:33):
a shift in higher initial claims. An announcement is not
a layoff. If you announce that there are going to
be layoffs that is in the future. Those will get
some indications that they have some of these announcements that
beginning in March, they're going to lay people off in
(24:53):
these companies. Now, whether that happens or not, whether things
turn around with that company and they back off from that.
We don't know, but the initial comment about that, and
so one of the things that she, I guess corrects
herself and says, it may be that some workers who
have lost their jobs have received generous severance packages or
(25:16):
have found other employment, although that is more difficult in
the current labor market with the press rate of hiring.
Not necessary, I mean, not necessarily, but again, at least
she's answering her own question. The Fed on Wednesday cut
in benchmarket overnight rate by twenty five basis points to
the three point fifty three point five zero to three
(25:39):
point seventy five range. US Central Bank has cut interest
rates three times this year. Palell told reporters that the
labor market seems to have significant downside risk, noting there
was an over counting of non farm payrolls, which policymakers
believe was still persisting. This is what I talked about
(26:00):
yesterday when we talk about the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
You remember the brew haha back in September or so,
when the head of that department got fired. When they
announced in September the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that
nine hundred and eleven fewer jobs were created in the
(26:20):
twelve months through March of twenty twenty five, So going
from April of twenty twenty four, during the last year
of the Biden administration, until March of twenty twenty five,
the job estimates, the job creations, the stuff that the
spoon fed regurgitators were telling us how strong the economy was,
that Biden is doing a great job, that he's on
(26:43):
top of everything, that he sharp runs rings around people
around the office, that he's the smartest guy in the room,
et cetera. That those job numbers were overestimated by nine
hundred and eleven thousand. That's on top of the eight
hundred and eight eighteen thousand that were overreported in the
(27:03):
prior twelve months. So the twelve month period of time
from April of twenty twenty three to April of twenty
twenty four, eight hundred and eighteen thousand jobs were overestimated,
and then from the next twelve months nine hundred and
eleven thousand, So just between those two years, more than
(27:24):
what is that one point seven million jobs were overreported,
and so all of the bragging about we have created
sixteen million new jobs during this administration, well maybe not
so much, because that's down about what fourteen to five now,
and then when you take into consideration that act during
(27:45):
the pandemic, there were twenty million people that lost their jobs.
So you are now looking at a situation with their
sixteen thousand that they were claiming. You're still talking about
a four million jobs gap. Tweet you and you can't
consider a replacement job backfilling something and saying that, oh
(28:07):
we have created this, you know, created nothing. All you've
done is ride the wave of these people rehiring the
people that got fired in the first place. It just
and of course, as I keep saying, the spoon federalgurgitators
of the mainStreet media kept misleading us, telling us that
the job market was strong, that all these jobs were
(28:28):
being created.
Speaker 2 (28:29):
Nine hundred and eleven.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
Thousand fewer jobs as of from March that was reported
in September, the equivalent of seventy six thousand fewer jobs
per month. The BLS will publish the final payroll benchmark
revision in February, along with January's employment numbers. The unemployment
of the employment report for November delayed by the Schumer
(28:52):
shutdown for forty three day government shutdown will be released
next Tuesday. It will incorporate October's nonfarm payroll data. The
unemployment rate for October, however, will not be available because
the shutdown prevented them from gathering all that information. So
it'll be interesting to see some of those numbers next week.
But if the as Jerome Powell is saying that, if
(29:15):
these numbers are not reliable and they have not corrected
the method by which they obtain those numbers, how do
we have the confidence that those numbers are going to
be accurate? And the fact that the head of that agency,
who they claim was doing a good job, blew it
by what one point seven million jobs? They'reabout maybe one
(29:39):
point eight million jobs, that that person should keep their job. Now, Okay,
I buy the part that Okay, she doesn't really she's
basically reporting or was reporting, the information that was provided
to her. But if you're embarrassed by the previous year's numbers,
wouldn't you say to those people that are collecting that
(29:59):
number for you to make you look bad, that you
correct the methods there, the methodology by which you're doing this.
Make sure that when you get these numbers to me
that they're accurate, so that the agency doesn't look bad,
but apparently not putting the pressure on them to give
the right information led to this again a second year
of where nine hundred and eleven thousand jobs were overestimated
(30:24):
on top of the eight hundred and eighteen million from
the eight hundred and eighteen thousand from the previous year.
Speaker 2 (30:31):
We'll talk a little bit more about this coming up.
Speaker 1 (30:33):
I'm Kevin Gordon, America's truck and Network seven hundred WLW
News Radio seven hundred WLW and iHeartRadio Station Guarantee Human
seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
HI Hard Radio.
Speaker 6 (30:50):
You know what your customers are doing right this second,
the exact same thing you are listening to me, which.
Speaker 2 (30:55):
Can network seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 1 (30:58):
I'm Kevin Gordon thought on this topic and again as
a recovering accountant, you know, I just I just can't
resist jumping into the numbers, looking at the numbers and saying, Okay,
this doesn't match this, Where is this coming from?
Speaker 2 (31:15):
Does this make any sense? And take it on from
there now.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
What was what's interesting is that when they're talking about
the unemployment claims, we also have the number of the
unemployment rate, which two months ago had gone down to
or three months ago had gone down to four point
two percent, then it jumped up to four point three,
and then the last unemployment number we got that it
(31:41):
was at four point four And yet we haven't seen
any major increases in unemployment. We haven't seen these job
numbers on a weekly basis spike and had been more
within more than what was in that acceptable normal range
of two hundred and ten thousand to two hundred and
(32:02):
fifty thousand. Then we have this number that's the continuing
people that have done their initial jobless claims and then
are on continued benefits.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
They're on out And this is this struck.
Speaker 1 (32:14):
Me in this the number of people receiving unemployment benefits
after an initial week of aid a proxy for hiring,
dropped ninety nine thousand to a seasonally adjusted one point
eight three eight million during the week ending November twenty ninth. Now,
the previous week, they talked about how that number was
(32:37):
now up to one point nine three seven, that it
was creeping up there and it was in a range
that was one of the highest in a couple of
years or something like that. But the difference between one
point eight and one point nine is a five percent drop.
They come in here, and then they say that some
(32:58):
of the decline in the so called continuing claims reflected
the difficulties of seasonally adjusting the data around Thanksgiving holiday
and also could be a result of people exhausting their
eligibility for benefits, which is limited to twenty six weeks
in some states.
Speaker 2 (33:16):
But again, they should have that data. The states should
be able.
Speaker 1 (33:19):
To come up with that number that, well, we had
x number of people that were on the unemployment and
after the twenty six how many people dropped off those roles?
They should be able to get that number very easily.
But when they talk about continuing claims are consistent consistent
with a gradual rise in the unemployment rate, which was
at a four year high of four point four in September,
(33:43):
and they're saying later on that they're expecting that to
go to four point five when they come up with
the unemployment numbers. Well, if the number of people that
are continuing on unemployment has dropped by five percent, wouldn't
you think that would reflect in the unemployment number in
total that maybe that four point five should be maybe
(34:07):
four point zero. It's amazing that you know that when
the numbers don't add up, and people don't, and these
reporters don't bother committing journalism and explaining it.
Speaker 2 (34:20):
We're left to figure this out.
Speaker 1 (34:21):
But I don't think, in my opinion, that that unemployment
number is going to be a lot higher than what
they had originally said.
Speaker 2 (34:30):
So we'll see how that goes. I just don't know.
Speaker 1 (34:34):
I think that the number is going to be lower
because we're not seeing any of these massive unemployment numbers
jump on a weekly basis. And you know, if that
doesn't go up, then how can the people You know,
if you have the initial claims, those are going to
be added to the people that have been on there
for a while. But if that number of people that
(34:55):
have been on there for a while drops by five percent,
then you would think overall that that number is coming down,
that they've either found new positions or have lost their benefits.
And I would imagine that somebody getting close to losing
their benefits would find something in order to make sure
that they're keeping bread on the table and keeping their
families well, keeping a roof over their head. Again, when
(35:18):
we're talking about affordability and we're talking about what's going
on as far as the economy is concerned one of
the things we keep hearing about, or people will started
talking about.
Speaker 2 (35:27):
And isn't it interesting that when.
Speaker 1 (35:30):
Something that people harp on and talk about and keep
flapping their gums about, especially at the first of the year,
you know, Trump was in office for a week, and
they said, I was hearing people saying, well, egg prices
are still high a week.
Speaker 2 (35:47):
What kind of magic Wand do you think somebody can do?
Speaker 1 (35:51):
If you've got the bird flu, if you've got people
killing having to kill off the flocks of chickens, they're
not going to be those dead chickens are not going
to be laying hey. And so if you've got fewer
eggs and you got the same demand, those prices are
going to go up. But egg prices just last week
at our local store, a large, a large large eggs
(36:11):
a dozen was a dollar forty nine. Beginning of the year,
I think that was close to two dollars and ten cents,
two dollars and thirty cents. Nobody's talking about egg prices
anymore now, you know. Then all of a sudden they
jumped on the bandwagon as far as meat prices, Well,
if you've got the you got the people that are
(36:32):
the climbingists that say that, you know, beef cattle or
you know, killing the planet not only with their cow farts,
but the fact that they're doing too much grazing and
that there's too much water that's being used by these
cows in order to this cattle in order to produce,
and farmers in drought areas or having to buy feedstock
(36:53):
and buy actual feed for those animals rather than letting
them go out on the range and graze. Then all
of a sudden they're having to reduce their flock, their
herds rather, and those herds are down around the nineteen
fifty levels. And if you've got twice the population, then
you're going to have a demand and not much of
(37:14):
a supply, So of course this price is going to
go up. USDA lowers cattle price forecast after Tyson plant closes,
which I thought was kind of a weird headline, but
when I read into it, it kind of makes a
little bit more sense. Cattle prices won't rise as much
as previously expected in twenty twenty six, as the closure
of a Tyson food plant is seen loosening competition for
(37:38):
scarce US supplies the Department of agriculture. On December the
ninth lowered its estimates estimates for cattle prices through twenty
twenty six, citing reduced slaughter plant capacity early next year
and recent pricing data. Tyson, the largest meat packers, said
in the late November statement, So the run in cost
(38:01):
of those cattle or the cattle being slaughtered are lower,
which will then be reflected later on in the prices. Also,
they're upping, and Trump has reduced the tariffs on meat
coming in from Argentina.
Speaker 2 (38:16):
Brazil, et cetera.
Speaker 1 (38:18):
So those prices should come in and start reducing those
prices as well.
Speaker 2 (38:22):
But if you're.
Speaker 1 (38:24):
Dealing with the same amount of cattle as nineteen fifty
and your population has doubled, your meat price is going
to go up.
Speaker 2 (38:33):
And so the fact that this is being corrected.
Speaker 1 (38:36):
And coming back down as a result of some of
these adjustments is a good thing. One of the things too,
that I've been talking about as far as inflation is concerned,
we're seeing numbers as far as inflation. However, those numbers
are not reflecting everything in there.
Speaker 2 (38:56):
We're not seeing.
Speaker 1 (38:57):
They keep talking about, well, tarifts are doing this for
doing that, But when you look behind some of the numbers.
A lot of that has to do with employment costs.
People working on the job getting higher pay. And again
I'm not opposed to people getting more pay. I'm all
for that, but if that is adding to inflation, then
(39:17):
people ought to be honest about it and talk about
it and bring it up and say, yes, inflation is up,
but also wages are up, which is making things a
bit more affordable. US employment costs rise at the slowest
pace since twenty twenty one. Annual growth of the US labor
costs accelerated in the third quarter to the slowest pace
(39:40):
in four years, adding to evidence that the softening job
market is helping limit inflationary pressure. The Employment cost Index
that are known as ECI, which tracks changes and wages
and benefits, increase three point five percent in the twelve
months end in September, according to Bureau of Labors out Wednesday.
(40:01):
On an adjusted basis, the gauge rows point eight percent
eight tens of one percent.
Speaker 2 (40:06):
Latest figures highlight the job market.
Speaker 1 (40:08):
And has lost momentum as many employers temper the pace
of hiring while some reduce head counts.
Speaker 2 (40:14):
But again with the economy being.
Speaker 1 (40:16):
In this no hire, no fire, policy because they don't
want to have to retrain their employees. Again, going back
to the pandemic, when people shut down their businesses, trying
to gear back up once the businesses were allowed to
open again, trying to find qualified employees, trying to find
people that were available to come in and fill those
(40:38):
positions was difficult. So rather than having to go through
that again, a lot of employers are hanging on to
the employees that they have and maybe not reducing those
even though with interest rates and the financing not being
able to increase the capacity or increase your business, that
your margins are being cut.
Speaker 2 (40:59):
A little bit.
Speaker 1 (41:00):
But as we've been seeing, there's been an uptick a
little bit in terms of the production, the amount of
people that are coming in, the amount of business that
is being beginning being handled by the current number of employees.
So when you have a bump in what business you're
getting an increase in sale, sometimes the amount of employees
(41:23):
you have can handle up that upward amount before you
have to begin to start hiring new employees. So a
lot of good news. Again, I start contrast between what
the headlines say and what the actual story says. Is
bringing more true today than in most situations. Well, folks,
(41:43):
we're up against clock here. Stay tuned for Retie Radio
at top the hour. I'm Kevin Gordon, America struck In
Network seven hundred WLW
Popular Podcasts
Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang
Ding dong! Join your culture consultants, Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang, on an unforgettable journey into the beating heart of CULTURE. Alongside sizzling special guests, they GET INTO the hottest pop-culture moments of the day and the formative cultural experiences that turned them into Culturistas. Produced by the Big Money Players Network and iHeartRadio.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
The Brothers Ortiz
The Brothers Ortiz is the story of two brothers–both successful, but in very different ways. Gabe Ortiz becomes a third-highest ranking officer in all of Texas while his younger brother Larry climbs the ranks in Puro Tango Blast, a notorious Texas Prison gang. Gabe doesn’t know all the details of his brother’s nefarious dealings, and he’s made a point not to ask, to protect their relationship. But when Larry is murdered during a home invasion in a rented beach house, Gabe has no choice but to look into what happened that night. To solve Larry’s murder, Gabe, and the whole Ortiz family, must ask each other tough questions.