November 25, 2025 • 39 mins
Kevin kicks off Turkey Week talking about grocery prices and he and his wife's feast preparation; the University of Michigan released their Monthly Consumer Sentiment Report; the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September Nonfarm payroll numbers, Average Hourly Earnings and Labor Participation Rate; oil and gas prices react to the possibility of another interest rate cut and the prospect of a peace deal in Ukraine; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, puts the information into historical perspective and offers his insights and opinions.
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Speaker 1 (00:10):
This is America's Trucking Network with Kevin Gordon.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Welcomeabre thanks for tuning in as we head into this
Turkey week here on America's struck A Network. Thursday night,
my wife and I went out and before you know
the show Friday morning, we went out and we got
our turkey. We got a couple of things because you know,
Thursday was thaw day, as we've mentioned, and we want
(00:37):
to make sure that we got a proper turkey. Now,
what we wound up doing is instead of getting a
frozen turkey, we actually found a fresh, organic turkey, and
we wound up spending seventy cents less per pound than
what we did for a frozen turkey the previous year. Now,
(00:58):
going out and looking at the various prices and stuff,
I was seeing prices as low as thirty three cents
a pound, some around fifty nine cents a pound. And
so the price of turkey is not going to break
the budget as far as your budget this year. As
far as Thanksgiving, we've also seen last week and the
(01:19):
week before where Walmart and Target have priced their fixings
and everything that goes with the meal down to where
it's actually four dollars I think the target was less
than around four dollars per person feeding a group of ten,
and Walmart was right within the same ballpark, So doing
it right and doing a little bit of shopping does
(01:41):
pay off. Now, what we did do, we did start
our preparation because there's a salt well, you know what,
I don't even know what to call it. My mom
used to call it cranberry sauce, But cranberry sauce is
basically what you get out of the can and so on,
and maybe some orange in it. But this concoction is
(02:02):
jello and it's got apples and celery and pecans in
it and firms up pretty good. But I find it
absolutely delicious. Now, we did tweak it a little bit
this year with adding a little bit of cherry juice
to it instead of just plain water, and it does
make it a little tarder, but we did that over
the weekend. As a matter of fact, we did that
(02:24):
on Sunday, and actually it usually takes a couple of
days for that to firm up, but it's firming up
pretty good, I think simply because we reduced the amount
of liquid to.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
It, so together we were able to do this.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
We of course, we used fresh cranberries, organic cranberries in it,
and so we were preparing this and you got to
do the cranberries and boil them and that sort of thing.
Then added sugar and jello and then chop up all
the stuff that goes into it. And of course, based
on the recipe that my mom had that passed down,
(02:59):
i'mult played that by five because you know, I want
to make sure that we have plenty left over.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
But anyway, it was.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
A lot of fun watching the Hallmark movies and Christmas
movies and so on. But it was interesting the way
it came together, having to, you know, do this and
get it all together. So we are on our way now.
This afternoon, my wife began making some she was gonna
make a I think a pumpkin pie, and I think
(03:28):
she made a I don't think, or maybe that's tomorrow
she's gonna make this flowerless chocolate cake. So she's experimenting
with the various deserts, so to speak. So we're having
a lot of fun. We're getting all ready for Thanksgiving
and really looking forward to the day. We're going to
have about ten people here at the well there at
(03:49):
the house, and so Anyway, it's gonna be a lot
of fun, and I'm looking forward to it. And I'm
I got to tell you from what I'm seeing, because
you know, as a recovering accountant, you know, I got
to figure things out. And I will keep receipts from
around Thanksgiving, you know, when we buy the stuff for Thanksgiving,
(04:12):
and then going forward up until about Christmas. And I've
kept receipts from probably and certain numbers for probably the
last thirty four years that we've been doing Thanksgiving. And
if I can remember, sometimes I'll write all the different
components down and put the prices next to it and
(04:33):
so on. But there's been a couple of years that
I've skipped. But overall, looking at the prices from this
year versus last year, I haven't noticed a huge difference
now getting into some of the numbers that I'm seeing.
And we had some of the reports last week. We'll
talk about consumer sentiment and the jobs report. But it's
(04:55):
interesting that what it appears to me what is happening
is that the spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media
are having way too much influence on what people are
thinking because of them talking about inflation because of them
talking about difficulties or spiking prices or whatever. It's almost
(05:21):
a self fulfilling prophecy, because when you look at food
prices this year versus last year, they're relatively the same.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
Anyway, we'll get into that coming up.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Let's say a look at the consumer sentiment according to
the Survey Michigan Survey University of Michigan. Consumer sentiment fell
in November. According to the Michigan Survey, the survey's headline
index dropped to fifty one, hovering near one of the
lowest levels in the month's pole month poll's history. The
(05:52):
final reading was up a hair from the preliminary November
figure of fifty point three published two weeks weeks ago,
but down from fifty three point six recorded in October,
and it was in line with the number that economists
polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecasts. Now getting
into the numbers and digging into them, consumers who have
(06:15):
faced above trend inflation for nearly half a decade.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Let's back up here a second. That's a key phrase.
Speaker 2 (06:22):
And by the way, if my voice sounds a little hoarse,
I don't know what's going on. I don't know if
it's seasonal allergies or what's going on. But it's a
little strain back there, not a sore throat, but just
a little strain. Anyway, consumers are faced above trend inflation
for nearly half a decade. Okay, a half a decade
(06:44):
is five years, my friends. And so the Trump administration
has been in office since January the twentieth. So this
above the trend inflation has been going on well before
Donald Trump came into office. And if you look at
the trend, the actual trend is dipping below what it
(07:05):
was during the Biden administration. Now, some of the boastful prognostications,
if you will, from Trump that these prices are going
to come down tremendously. Turkey prices have come down, price
of eggs have come down, and a lot of these
things are not related to tariffs. A lot of them
are not related to increased prices. What it is is
(07:30):
having to do with shortages, droughts. As far as beef
is concerned, the bird flu having gone through some of
these flocks and raised you know, when you have to
kill off your flocks, you're not going to producing much eggs.
So of course the demand is there. The supply is low,
so the prices are high. So when you see some
of those factors coming into play, those are some of
(07:51):
the things that are throwing these numbers off. But when
you compare as you know, Target did, as Walmart did
with their basket of stuff for Thanksgiving, their prices are down.
As a matter of fact, I think Walmart said that
their prices this year are lower than they were in
twenty nineteen, so that is a huge drop.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
And as I keep pointing out, when you go.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
To the grocery store, plan ahead, do a little bit
of online research.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
You know, people do.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
You know people are thumbing through their phones on a
regular basis, and you see them sitting around just scrolling
and entertaining themselves with stupid videos and stuff like that.
And that's all well and good. But when you could
spend that amount of time maybe checking with different stores
in your area and planning your purchase.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
And I'm not talking about.
Speaker 2 (08:43):
Running over here and running over there and running all
over town and everything. You can plot your like logistics,
I mean like you have to do.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
In the trucking industry. You have to.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
It doesn't make any sense for you to, you know,
take you know, being the greatest in saying northern Kentucky
area and do a trip down to Texas and then
do a trip back to Arkansas, and then do a
trip over to Nebraska and then find your way home. No,
you generally find that route that shortens the distance between
(09:14):
those points and you do it in a situation where
it takes less mileage. So you know, if you're in
the process, it's kind of getting late in the game
in terms of buying your stuff for Thanksgiving. But in
the future, if you're looking at stuff, you can say, well, Okay,
I'm going to be over in this neighborhood and such
and such, and I'm closer to this particular store. I
can swing by there and pick up a couple items,
(09:35):
and swing over here on my way back home and
pick up a couple items, and that sort of thing.
And it's amazing how much you can cut your grocery
bill just by hitting those sales and making sure that
you're taking advantage of what they're offering as far as
the grocery stores are concerned.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
We'll pick this up a little bit coming up.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
I'm Kevin Gordon, America Struck a Network seven hundred WLW.
Kevin Gordon America Constructing Network seven hundred WLW, continuing the
story on consumer sentiment, again reading between the lines. If
you learn readjust the headline, you'll get a completely different
(10:13):
feeling as far as the story is concerned. All right,
we left off with consumers who have faced above trend
inflation for nearly half a decade, remained frustrated with high
prices and rising prices. Survey director Joanne Sue said, though
the first part of November they were also contending with
(10:36):
a record long government shutdown which disrupted food aid, air travel,
and many workers' paychecks, and many federal workers paychecks. Now,
as far as this consumer sentiment report is concerned, is
that the only people that they identified that they specifically
picked out the federal workers, people with disrupted food aid,
(10:58):
or people that are air trains.
Speaker 1 (11:00):
Was it across the board?
Speaker 2 (11:02):
How many Conservatives, how many Liberals, how many Republicans, Democrats, whatever,
how many affected class versus the unaffected class. We don't
know these numbers. All we know is that they go
out and do the survey and report the numbers. But
when they say that people who have experienced above trend
inflation for nearly half a decade, over that's five years
(11:24):
folks that now just now they're starting to get frustrated
with high prices and higher prices. No, the prices are
relatively flat and in some cases coming down, and we'll
see that coming up in the near future and even lower.
Economic concerns also extended to the job market, which logged
a rise in unemployment to four point four percent in
(11:47):
September despite a net job creation of one hundred and
nineteen thousand. Now, which is interesting that we'll get too
later on, But if the one hundred and nineteen thousand
jobs that were created in that month is high, how
is the unemployment rate going up? Because in this next
(12:08):
story that I'll be covering talking about the jobs created,
it states in there about how people, how the extended,
the labor participation rate and some of these things that
affect the overall unemployment have come down. So how can
(12:28):
unemployment go from four point two percent up to four
point three and up to four point four percent when
the labor participation rate is up, the overall unemployment number
is down, and the weekly jobless claims are down. As
we talked about last week, just kind of refresh your
memory last week, they came up with the weekly jobless
(12:51):
claims or unemployment rates for the first week, you know,
the initial jobless claims for the week, and they came
in at two hundred and twenty thousand, which was an
eight down eight thousand unemployed people from the previous week.
The government estimates or the economist estimates had estimated that
two hundred and thirty thousand people would have been unemployed.
(13:11):
They were off by four point four percent on their estimates.
So the number of people on a weekly basis that
have lost their jobs are well within the range of
that two hundred and ten to two hundred and fifty
thousand that they talk about where it's been for the
last several months and even years. So how is the
unemployment rate going up when you've got more people coming
(13:33):
into the job market, and as we'll see coming up,
more people are now participating in the rate, and more
people have added into the job market.
Speaker 1 (13:40):
It just some of these numbers just don't make any sense.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
And I've talked about this consumer sentiment report for a
long time now it depends.
Speaker 1 (13:49):
I would love to know who these people are.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
Because the spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media since
the beginning of the year, in my opinion, have talked
down the economy, trashed the economy, ninety four percent, negative
coverage of the Trump administration ninety four percent or better,
negative coverage of just Donald Trump himself, let alone his
cabinet and so on. And so that's got a wigh
(14:12):
on people. And you know, in my opinion, as I
and I've said this before and I'll say it again,
I believe that the mainstream media, as well as Lyon
and Jerry Powell, are trying to manufacture a recession and
the resilience of the American public. The American people are
just not having any of it, and is confounding these experts.
(14:33):
So anyway, let me see economic concerns to talk about
four point four percent unemployment, which I don't understand. If
you've got the same relatively level unemployment numbers on a
weekly basis, why is that number going up? Looking at
the trends since the spring, many economists now estimate estimate
that employers are adding roughly just enough new jobs to
(14:55):
keep joblessness joblessness in check. Well, if you keep joblessness
in check, then that unemployment rate shouldn't be jumping a
tenth of a percentage point or two tenths of a
percentage point.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
It should be what it was two months ago or so.
Speaker 2 (15:11):
Again, these numbers are, in my opinion, just are not
adding up market. Let me see jobless check a significant
cool down from the job seekers market that prevailed earlier
in the decade.
Speaker 1 (15:24):
Long frustrate.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
Now earlier in the decade, all right, we came out
of a pandemic when everybody, when businesses shut down, factories
shut down.
Speaker 1 (15:34):
The only thing that stayed.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
Open were hospitals and police officers, firefighters. Oh and by
the way, abortion clinics, but we won't get into that.
So these the other things were all shut down, and
so when everything opened up, then what you had is
more people pouring back into the job market that had
(15:58):
previously been on an employed. And of course the numbers
are going to look good at the beginning of the decade.
They're in twenty twenty one, the beginning of twenty twenty two.
But when you look at pre pandemic estimates or pre
plandemic numbers, the jobs that were added back during that
period of time did not match the number of jobs
(16:20):
that were lost that prior to them plandemic. And so
all this boasting from the previous administration about how many
jobs they created, Well, compare that number to the numbers
that were lost, and they still hadn't matched those numbers.
And to count that as a created job when it
is merely a job that is replacing or backfilling what
(16:44):
had been lost previously is not a gain. And the
employment range or the employment ranks. So it was a
false narrative that they kept cramming down our throats and
again talking about where the number of the numbers of
increases and the job increases that we saw at the
(17:04):
beginning of the decade, Well, hell, yes, you'd see a lot,
but you know, you shut everything down and you're at zero,
So anything up from that is going to look fantastic.
Speaker 1 (17:15):
So anyway, significant cool.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
Down from the job seekers market that prevailed earlier in
the decade long, frustrating job searchers, and headlines about large
scales corporate layoffs are coloring the views of the labor
market far harder to navigate than it was a couple.
Speaker 1 (17:31):
Of years ago. Now, the headlines.
Speaker 2 (17:33):
About large scale corporate layoffs, not actual layoffs, the headlines
talking about corporate layoffs that are in the future, possibly
six months, seven months down the road as they've been
talking about over the last few weeks. So with that,
if you're just looking at headlines again and they haven't
(17:56):
actually come to fruition, why is that depressing people be
caught of the headline again. As I've talked about how
people go through their phones, all they do is scan
the headlines. They don't bother reading the story that don't
get into the details of the story like we do
here on America's truck and Network.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
In order to set that record straight.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
And as long as that, as long as the spoon
fed regurgitators in the mainstream media are going to keep
those headlines up, worse and worse the sentiment, the consumer
sentiment is going to be. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's Trucking Network.
Seven hundred WLW, seven hundred WLW. I'm Kevin Gordon. This
(18:43):
is America's Trucking Network. America's truck and Network supports a
mission and REES across America. You can hear us every
truck and Tuesday at five am and ten am Eastern
on REES across America Radio, available on the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 1 (18:58):
Search the word rese now that's.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
Wr EA ths for Reese Across America Radio, and thank
you to all our truckers for supporting the mission of
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the laying of the res at the various cemeteries is
December the thirteenth. It is still not too late to
sponsor a wreath seventeen dollars mirror amount and that number
(19:24):
was the same as it was last year, so there's
no inflation there and a lot of these there's still
I think some open lanes that if you have some time,
if you can do maybe final mile or maybe a
little bit longer in terms of these trips, in terms
of picking up these reefs and getting them distributed across
the country, just check out Reese Across America.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
I believe it's dot org and get on their website.
Speaker 2 (19:49):
It's a great website, great amount of tools, a lot
of stuff having to do with all the stuff that
they do throughout the year. So it's a great organization.
Proud to be part of it, Proud to be part
of recent Across America Radio every truck and Tuesday, and
really appreciate that. By the way, if you miss any
part of our program or any of our previous shows,
(20:10):
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you by our friends at Rust Truck Centers, and we
certainly appreciate that. Again, getting back to this consumer sentiment
number and the facts in here, but I'm gonna just
read this headline, I under this, this this paragraph.
Speaker 1 (20:26):
I'm not too fond of it.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
But recent consumer surveys have portrayed a fault line in
America's sentiment. Those with large stock stark stock portfolios are
feeling more positive than people with fewer holdings because of
the roaring market has fueled significant gains for investors. Well,
there's an awful lot. There's a large percentage of the
people out there. I don't know off the top of
(20:49):
my head, I don't remember what the number is. But
if you have a four oh one k, or if
you're invested in your company's program in terms of either
pension or their participation in if you have the four
oh one k through work and then they max that
or equal that or whatever from the corporations, you're still
(21:11):
in the market. You're not seeing it on a regular basis.
You're seeing in your statements on a quarterly basis or
on a monthly basis. But again, you are still involved
in the stock market. Now some of the people that
are not involved in the stock market, well, you know, people, Again,
this doesn't change whether you're having fantastic economic times, middle
(21:34):
of the road economic times, or downturn. During the recession
back in or they call it the Great recession back
in two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine or so,
people were still making money. People with the right count
that had the wherewithal and that could wait things out
as far as the downturn in the market did very
(21:56):
well during that period of time. But again those that
weren't invested in and that didn't do so well. We
saw in the housing market. We talked about that on
this program, where in twenty two thousand and eight, two
thousand and nine, the housing market collapsed. We had a
kind of across the board reduction of about forty percent
in the value of homes, and so people found themselves underwater.
(22:19):
And as as we got through the recession, those numbers
came up back up. It took a little bit longer
than what it normally takes in a recession, but by
twenty twelve twenty fourteen, people were back to where they
were before the recession began, and so holding onto the
home if you have the people maintaining their jobs and
trying to go through some creative measures to hang onto
(22:41):
the house. Because there were some programs that were done
by the banks in order to try to keep people
in because they didn't want those homes dumped on them,
because if somebody wounds up, if they wound up wind
up for closing on homes and they can't sell those homes,
they're stuck with that home on their books. And so
there was a lot of leaf programs that were done
(23:01):
during that period of time. But again, you don't base
this on because you know, I've talked in terms before
of you know, in a lot of instances of what
we look at as far as what's going on in
the economy or the country or so on. Sometimes it
boils down to not only necessarily Republicans versus Democrats, Conservatives
(23:21):
versus liberals. It has to do with the affected class
versus the unaffected class. The liberals in Hollywood, the liberals
on the DNC side, they're not affected. If they're the
upper class, they're not affected by this. The rich people
on the right in the conservative side, they're not affected
by that, but we the affected class here in the middle,
(23:43):
we are affected by every one of these things. And
so it's a battle between the affected class and the
unaffected class. And that's being and they're playing this up
as if in this article, as if it's something new
that has never been there before. But even those good
feelings could face a test amid rough November on Wall
Street with the rise in the in the stock market,
(24:07):
the stock market over the last month. Now, remember back
on Liberation Day, back on April the second, the stock
market went down tremendously. It was more than a correction,
I think it was what it was at fifteen to
twenty percent down almost overnight, and then people that hung
in there did. Stock market over the last couple of
(24:27):
months have not only beat what it was prior to
April the second, but gone even higher. And on a weekly,
on a daily basis, for about three or four weeks
there every day was a record high, not a record
high for the week, not a record high for the month,
not a record high for the past six months, but
(24:49):
a record high ever in the stock market. So when
you have that rapid increase during that period of time,
at some point people are going to take some you know,
take winnings off the table cash in kind of take
their you know, take their earnings and take their wins
and then go back into the market later on. But
(25:10):
again that is where people where the market starts going down,
and what they talk about is we're not even near
what they talk in terms as far as a correction
in the market. It's gone down a little bit, but
it hasn't gone down to the point where it's actually
considered a correction. So any of this playing up that oh, well,
(25:31):
you know the stock market was down five percent and
recent you know, and so on, well, you know, until
it gets up to the ten fifteen percent, you're not
in the correction. Weaker employment picture prompted two interest rate
cuts from the Federal Reserve at the Central Banks meeting
in September October, but officials have appeared split on whether
they should hold rates steady in December. Although both challenges
(25:55):
are clearly weighing on consumers concerns about a long run inflation.
Long run inflation un lest at least hasn't been worsening,
according to the Michigan Survey, a reassuring sign for the
Fed because fears of persistent inflation are sometimes thought to
become self fulfilling. And again what I talked about earlier
(26:17):
is that we keep talking about inflation, keep talking about inflation.
People are going to people are going to be thinking
in terms of inflation, whether or not they're feeling it.
Speaker 1 (26:26):
In their own home or not.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
Long run inflation expectations fell to now get this, okay,
Long term expectations for inflation fell to three point four percent,
down from three point nine percent in October. So people
forecasting out thinking that inflation was going to be approaching
four percent are now back down to the three percent range.
(26:51):
So how can those people that feel that way have
a bad sentiment as far as the economy is concerned.
Like I said, a lot of these numbers and the
way they're displaying them just don't add up, And it
almost seems like you've got a jackal in a hyde
economy out there, where the media is talking it down,
but that people are being resilient and working through it. Now,
(27:15):
coming up, we're going to be talking about the job's numbers,
because those came in pretty hot last week and a
lot of good information there, and we'll get to that
coming up. I'm Kevin Gordon America's struck A network. Seven
hundred WLW seven hundred WLW. I'm Kevin Gordon. This is
(27:35):
America's struck A network. I mentioned in the previous segment
that the job numbers came in last week. Non farm
payroll one hundred and nineteen thousand added, a jobless rate
goes up to four point four. Like I said, the
numbers don't add up. As far as I'm concerned, US
economy added substantially more jobs than expected in September. According
to the long awaited report Thursday from the Bureau of
(27:57):
Labor Statistics, non farm payroll increased by one hundred and
nineteen thousand in a month, up from the four thousand
jobs lost in August. So that's a swing of one
hundred and twenty three thousand jobs Following a downward revision.
The Dow Jones consensus estimate for September was fifty thousand,
(28:20):
so the economists were expecting for September only fifty thousand increase.
It came in at one hundred and nineteen thousand, so
their estimates were off, and their expectations were off by
one hundred and thirty eight percent. The July total was
also revised down to seventy two thousand, a decrease of
(28:41):
seven thousand from the prior release. In addition to the
headline's job numbers that we talked about before BLS, the
unemployment rage rate edged up higher to four point four percent,
the highest it's been since October of twenty twenty one.
A broader measure that includes the those not looking for
jobs or working part time for economic reasons edged lower
(29:06):
to eight percent. Now they don't say edge lower from what,
But I did look it up, and I saw a
number that was like eight point four or eight point
one that I couldn't get nailed that down. But still,
if the number of people that are considered unemployed and
have stopped working part of the labor participation rate is up,
(29:31):
then you would expect to see unemployment numbers go up.
If that number comes down, why is the unemployment number
going up again?
Speaker 1 (29:40):
These things just don't make any sense to me.
Speaker 2 (29:43):
Average hourly earnings increase point two percent for the month
and three point eight percent from a year ago, compared
to a respective forecast of three percent three point eight
So the forecasts were lower than what it actually came
in at report ends the data drought the labor market
that began in early September and continued through the record one,
(30:06):
record forty four day government shutdown, and who caused that
that was caused by the Democrats. The Schumer's shutdown agencies,
including the BLS and Bureau of Economic Analysis and others,
were prohibited from collecting or releasing data during the period.
This was the first report since the beginning of August thereabouts.
(30:28):
Daniel Zou, chief economists at job site Glass Doors, said,
September's jobs report shows the labor market still had resilience
before the shutdown, beating payroll expectations, but the picture remains muddy,
with August jobs revised to a job loss and unemployment
(30:49):
rate increasing again. Why is the rate increasing if the
jobs are creating are going up and the overall including
people who have stoppler looking for work, has come down.
Stock market futures nevertheless added to gains following the report.
Traders also continue to bet that the Federal Reserve will
(31:09):
not lower interest rates further at its December the ninth
and tenth meeting ninth through the tenth meeting, So that's
mudding the waters as far as that's concerned, and again
probably playing on as far as consumer sentiment is concerned.
Despite the fact that today jobs report is very backward looking.
This is a quote from Sema Shaw, she is chief
(31:32):
Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management. Despite the fact that
today's report is very backward looking, well what else would
it be if the jobs that were created? You have
to find out what those jobs are, and before you
report them. You can't forecast ahead and say, well, gee wiz,
let me get out my crystal ball and let me
(31:53):
see forward thinking in terms of what the job market
is going to be. Shoot, if you could do that,
you should, you know, do that crystal ball.
Speaker 1 (32:01):
To find lottery numbers.
Speaker 2 (32:03):
Equities like the fact that the payrolls were stronger than expected,
suggesting the economy is still on firm footing, while the
bond market likes the rise in unemployment slow down so on. Overall,
the report shows that the labor market entered the autumn
months on much the same footing and has it been
all year long, slow but steady pace. People are not
(32:23):
getting laid off, and people are not businesses are not
laying off, and they're not hiring. Separate Labor Department release
on Thursday showed that the initial jobless claims. Talking about
those unemployment numbers have come down that way. On the downside,
transpency jobs were added in healthcare forty three thousand. Bars
and restaurants contributed thirty seven thousand. Those are in the
(32:45):
service industries, So if those are up, people are out.
They're not hiring people in that area, or they're not
increasing their staff if the business isn't there. So apparently
people are out spending money at bars and restaurants and
they need the staff to fulfill that. Transportation and warehousing
lost twenty five thousand jobs, part of the loss of
ninety seven on the calendar year. Professional business services also
(33:10):
reported to decline, the twenty thousand fueled by the drop
of sixteen thousand and temporary help. Now they do report
later on that the number of people working part time,
and see that again, this is one of those numbers
that don't add up. Rolls for full employment swelled by
six hundred and seventy three thousand, while part timers fell
(33:30):
by five hundred and seventy three. Now was that sixteen
thousand the temporary help lost? Did they become full time?
They don't explain in here. Total level of those employed
rose by two hundred and fifty one thousand, while the
labor force increased by four hundred and seventy thousand to
a fresh record of one hundred and seventy one million
(33:53):
people working. That is a record number of people working.
The participation rate, which measures the share of the working
age population either working or seeking employment, edged higher to
sixty two point four percent, the highest since May. So,
like I said, these numbers are not adding up. If
they're talking about unemployment going up, then why are job
(34:16):
seekers the number of people added to the labor force
going up, and a record number of people participating in
the job market.
Speaker 1 (34:23):
I just don't understand it. Now.
Speaker 2 (34:27):
One of the things that I want to get to
here real quick is some of the comments that were
made in terms of what oil prices are doing. Because
oil prices currently West Texas Intermediate crude is at fifty
eight dollars and eighty one cents a barrel. That's seventy
five cents from Friday, But just since January the twentieth,
it's down eighteen dollars and eight cents. That's a twenty
(34:50):
four percent decrease since January. Brent crude down is at
sixty three thirty four, up about a buck from Friday,
but since January is down sixteen dollars and fifty six cents,
that is a twenty one percent decrease, So again those
prices are coming down there now looking at what's going
(35:12):
on in the oil markets. The headline was and when
you print it off, it talks about interest rates, but
the headline on the website was oil prices edge higher
as US interest rates and Ukraine peace talks jostle for attention.
Speaker 1 (35:30):
Now, one of the things that popped out on.
Speaker 2 (35:32):
This report is they talk about what is going on
in terms of Russia, whether or not they're going to
reach some sort of an agreement, whether there's going to
be this peace dividend, or whether or not the price
is going to go up, whether Russian oil companies, if
the sanctions are going to be lifted off there, and
(35:52):
whether or not oil is going to be flowing into
the market and so on. They talked about how the
Federal Reserve is kicking around the idea there are a
lot of members of the Federal Reserve that are talking
about wanting to decrease interest rates. In their meeting onto
some of the sixth through the seventh I think that
number was, but then there are some that are holding
(36:13):
out and saying that they should be remaining the same fat.
Governor Christopher Waller sat on Monday that the available data
indicates the US job market remains weak enough to warrant
another quarter point cut, though action beyond that will depend
on the flood of data and so on from the
growth of labor statistics.
Speaker 1 (36:33):
Hit this line in here.
Speaker 2 (36:35):
Lower interest rates could boost economic growth and oil demand
by reducing borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
What have I been saying on this.
Speaker 2 (36:47):
Program, on and on and on about our interest rates
being higher than they are in Europe, in Canada, across
some of the developed countries, and Lion Jerry Powell keeping
our interest rates high, artificially high, in my opinion, that
is stifling the economy. Let me repeat that last sentence.
(37:09):
Lower interest rates could boost economic growth and oil demand
by reducing borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. So, when
you have more money in your pocket because you're not
paying sky high interest rates, that makes the house that
you're in more affordable, or the house you would like
(37:31):
to attain become more affordable. You get more bang for
your buck. In terms of where your salary is versus
the size house you can buy or the price of
the house you can buy, and it reduces your monthly payment.
And so if your monthly payment is down, there's more
money in your pocket. You have more money to spend
(37:51):
on discretionary things, which then means that you're out about
possibly buying more stuff at a store, whether a retail
chain or whether it's at food and restaurant. We saw
the job numbers where increases in the restaurant and bar
staffs are up. So again, when they're talking about interest
(38:13):
rate decreases stimulate the economy. If the Federal Reserve they
say that their intention or that their mission is to
keep inflation low and to keep the job market strong.
The job market has been strong. The number of the
amount of inflation is holding steady. It's a at the
(38:34):
level that it's been for the last well a couple
of years, basically well with lower than what it was
during the Biden years in twenty twenty two and twenty
twenty three, but as far as twenty twenty four. Towards
the end of twenty twenty four and then into this year,
it's been relatively the same somewhere around the two point
seven to three percent range, so it's not drastically going
(38:56):
up and the Fed wanting that interest rate or that
inflation rate down round two percent. It hasn't been around
two percent since the previous Trump administration at two point one,
so given what the economy does during the Trump administration,
we should see that coming down and at least they
have the track record of that and can adjust that
(39:17):
interest rate down, which, as they say, will spur the economy. Well, folks,
that does it for us. Stay tuned for Redie Radio
at top the hour. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's Trucking Network
seven hundred WLW
This is America's Trucking Network with Kevin Gordon.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Welcomeabre thanks for tuning in as we head into this
Turkey week here on America's struck A Network. Thursday night,
my wife and I went out and before you know
the show Friday morning, we went out and we got
our turkey. We got a couple of things because you know,
Thursday was thaw day, as we've mentioned, and we want
(00:37):
to make sure that we got a proper turkey. Now,
what we wound up doing is instead of getting a
frozen turkey, we actually found a fresh, organic turkey, and
we wound up spending seventy cents less per pound than
what we did for a frozen turkey the previous year. Now,
(00:58):
going out and looking at the various prices and stuff,
I was seeing prices as low as thirty three cents
a pound, some around fifty nine cents a pound. And
so the price of turkey is not going to break
the budget as far as your budget this year. As
far as Thanksgiving, we've also seen last week and the
(01:19):
week before where Walmart and Target have priced their fixings
and everything that goes with the meal down to where
it's actually four dollars I think the target was less
than around four dollars per person feeding a group of ten,
and Walmart was right within the same ballpark, So doing
it right and doing a little bit of shopping does
(01:41):
pay off. Now, what we did do, we did start
our preparation because there's a salt well, you know what,
I don't even know what to call it. My mom
used to call it cranberry sauce, But cranberry sauce is
basically what you get out of the can and so on,
and maybe some orange in it. But this concoction is
(02:02):
jello and it's got apples and celery and pecans in
it and firms up pretty good. But I find it
absolutely delicious. Now, we did tweak it a little bit
this year with adding a little bit of cherry juice
to it instead of just plain water, and it does
make it a little tarder, but we did that over
the weekend. As a matter of fact, we did that
(02:24):
on Sunday, and actually it usually takes a couple of
days for that to firm up, but it's firming up
pretty good, I think simply because we reduced the amount
of liquid to.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
It, so together we were able to do this.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
We of course, we used fresh cranberries, organic cranberries in it,
and so we were preparing this and you got to
do the cranberries and boil them and that sort of thing.
Then added sugar and jello and then chop up all
the stuff that goes into it. And of course, based
on the recipe that my mom had that passed down,
(02:59):
i'mult played that by five because you know, I want
to make sure that we have plenty left over.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
But anyway, it was.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
A lot of fun watching the Hallmark movies and Christmas
movies and so on. But it was interesting the way
it came together, having to, you know, do this and
get it all together. So we are on our way now.
This afternoon, my wife began making some she was gonna
make a I think a pumpkin pie, and I think
(03:28):
she made a I don't think, or maybe that's tomorrow
she's gonna make this flowerless chocolate cake. So she's experimenting
with the various deserts, so to speak. So we're having
a lot of fun. We're getting all ready for Thanksgiving
and really looking forward to the day. We're going to
have about ten people here at the well there at
(03:49):
the house, and so Anyway, it's gonna be a lot
of fun, and I'm looking forward to it. And I'm
I got to tell you from what I'm seeing, because
you know, as a recovering accountant, you know, I got
to figure things out. And I will keep receipts from
around Thanksgiving, you know, when we buy the stuff for Thanksgiving,
(04:12):
and then going forward up until about Christmas. And I've
kept receipts from probably and certain numbers for probably the
last thirty four years that we've been doing Thanksgiving. And
if I can remember, sometimes I'll write all the different
components down and put the prices next to it and
(04:33):
so on. But there's been a couple of years that
I've skipped. But overall, looking at the prices from this
year versus last year, I haven't noticed a huge difference
now getting into some of the numbers that I'm seeing.
And we had some of the reports last week. We'll
talk about consumer sentiment and the jobs report. But it's
(04:55):
interesting that what it appears to me what is happening
is that the spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media
are having way too much influence on what people are
thinking because of them talking about inflation because of them
talking about difficulties or spiking prices or whatever. It's almost
(05:21):
a self fulfilling prophecy, because when you look at food
prices this year versus last year, they're relatively the same.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
Anyway, we'll get into that coming up.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Let's say a look at the consumer sentiment according to
the Survey Michigan Survey University of Michigan. Consumer sentiment fell
in November. According to the Michigan Survey, the survey's headline
index dropped to fifty one, hovering near one of the
lowest levels in the month's pole month poll's history. The
(05:52):
final reading was up a hair from the preliminary November
figure of fifty point three published two weeks weeks ago,
but down from fifty three point six recorded in October,
and it was in line with the number that economists
polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecasts. Now getting
into the numbers and digging into them, consumers who have
(06:15):
faced above trend inflation for nearly half a decade.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Let's back up here a second. That's a key phrase.
Speaker 2 (06:22):
And by the way, if my voice sounds a little hoarse,
I don't know what's going on. I don't know if
it's seasonal allergies or what's going on. But it's a
little strain back there, not a sore throat, but just
a little strain. Anyway, consumers are faced above trend inflation
for nearly half a decade. Okay, a half a decade
(06:44):
is five years, my friends. And so the Trump administration
has been in office since January the twentieth. So this
above the trend inflation has been going on well before
Donald Trump came into office. And if you look at
the trend, the actual trend is dipping below what it
(07:05):
was during the Biden administration. Now, some of the boastful prognostications,
if you will, from Trump that these prices are going
to come down tremendously. Turkey prices have come down, price
of eggs have come down, and a lot of these
things are not related to tariffs. A lot of them
are not related to increased prices. What it is is
(07:30):
having to do with shortages, droughts. As far as beef
is concerned, the bird flu having gone through some of
these flocks and raised you know, when you have to
kill off your flocks, you're not going to producing much eggs.
So of course the demand is there. The supply is low,
so the prices are high. So when you see some
of those factors coming into play, those are some of
(07:51):
the things that are throwing these numbers off. But when
you compare as you know, Target did, as Walmart did
with their basket of stuff for Thanksgiving, their prices are down.
As a matter of fact, I think Walmart said that
their prices this year are lower than they were in
twenty nineteen, so that is a huge drop.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
And as I keep pointing out, when you go.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
To the grocery store, plan ahead, do a little bit
of online research.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
You know, people do.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
You know people are thumbing through their phones on a
regular basis, and you see them sitting around just scrolling
and entertaining themselves with stupid videos and stuff like that.
And that's all well and good. But when you could
spend that amount of time maybe checking with different stores
in your area and planning your purchase.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
And I'm not talking about.
Speaker 2 (08:43):
Running over here and running over there and running all
over town and everything. You can plot your like logistics,
I mean like you have to do.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
In the trucking industry. You have to.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
It doesn't make any sense for you to, you know,
take you know, being the greatest in saying northern Kentucky
area and do a trip down to Texas and then
do a trip back to Arkansas, and then do a
trip over to Nebraska and then find your way home. No,
you generally find that route that shortens the distance between
(09:14):
those points and you do it in a situation where
it takes less mileage. So you know, if you're in
the process, it's kind of getting late in the game
in terms of buying your stuff for Thanksgiving. But in
the future, if you're looking at stuff, you can say, well, Okay,
I'm going to be over in this neighborhood and such
and such, and I'm closer to this particular store. I
can swing by there and pick up a couple items,
(09:35):
and swing over here on my way back home and
pick up a couple items, and that sort of thing.
And it's amazing how much you can cut your grocery
bill just by hitting those sales and making sure that
you're taking advantage of what they're offering as far as
the grocery stores are concerned.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
We'll pick this up a little bit coming up.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
I'm Kevin Gordon, America Struck a Network seven hundred WLW.
Kevin Gordon America Constructing Network seven hundred WLW, continuing the
story on consumer sentiment, again reading between the lines. If
you learn readjust the headline, you'll get a completely different
(10:13):
feeling as far as the story is concerned. All right,
we left off with consumers who have faced above trend
inflation for nearly half a decade, remained frustrated with high
prices and rising prices. Survey director Joanne Sue said, though
the first part of November they were also contending with
(10:36):
a record long government shutdown which disrupted food aid, air travel,
and many workers' paychecks, and many federal workers paychecks. Now,
as far as this consumer sentiment report is concerned, is
that the only people that they identified that they specifically
picked out the federal workers, people with disrupted food aid,
(10:58):
or people that are air trains.
Speaker 1 (11:00):
Was it across the board?
Speaker 2 (11:02):
How many Conservatives, how many Liberals, how many Republicans, Democrats, whatever,
how many affected class versus the unaffected class. We don't
know these numbers. All we know is that they go
out and do the survey and report the numbers. But
when they say that people who have experienced above trend
inflation for nearly half a decade, over that's five years
(11:24):
folks that now just now they're starting to get frustrated
with high prices and higher prices. No, the prices are
relatively flat and in some cases coming down, and we'll
see that coming up in the near future and even lower.
Economic concerns also extended to the job market, which logged
a rise in unemployment to four point four percent in
(11:47):
September despite a net job creation of one hundred and
nineteen thousand. Now, which is interesting that we'll get too
later on, But if the one hundred and nineteen thousand
jobs that were created in that month is high, how
is the unemployment rate going up? Because in this next
(12:08):
story that I'll be covering talking about the jobs created,
it states in there about how people, how the extended,
the labor participation rate and some of these things that
affect the overall unemployment have come down. So how can
(12:28):
unemployment go from four point two percent up to four
point three and up to four point four percent when
the labor participation rate is up, the overall unemployment number
is down, and the weekly jobless claims are down. As
we talked about last week, just kind of refresh your
memory last week, they came up with the weekly jobless
(12:51):
claims or unemployment rates for the first week, you know,
the initial jobless claims for the week, and they came
in at two hundred and twenty thousand, which was an
eight down eight thousand unemployed people from the previous week.
The government estimates or the economist estimates had estimated that
two hundred and thirty thousand people would have been unemployed.
(13:11):
They were off by four point four percent on their estimates.
So the number of people on a weekly basis that
have lost their jobs are well within the range of
that two hundred and ten to two hundred and fifty
thousand that they talk about where it's been for the
last several months and even years. So how is the
unemployment rate going up when you've got more people coming
(13:33):
into the job market, and as we'll see coming up,
more people are now participating in the rate, and more
people have added into the job market.
Speaker 1 (13:40):
It just some of these numbers just don't make any sense.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
And I've talked about this consumer sentiment report for a
long time now it depends.
Speaker 1 (13:49):
I would love to know who these people are.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
Because the spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media since
the beginning of the year, in my opinion, have talked
down the economy, trashed the economy, ninety four percent, negative
coverage of the Trump administration ninety four percent or better,
negative coverage of just Donald Trump himself, let alone his
cabinet and so on. And so that's got a wigh
(14:12):
on people. And you know, in my opinion, as I
and I've said this before and I'll say it again,
I believe that the mainstream media, as well as Lyon
and Jerry Powell, are trying to manufacture a recession and
the resilience of the American public. The American people are
just not having any of it, and is confounding these experts.
(14:33):
So anyway, let me see economic concerns to talk about
four point four percent unemployment, which I don't understand. If
you've got the same relatively level unemployment numbers on a
weekly basis, why is that number going up? Looking at
the trends since the spring, many economists now estimate estimate
that employers are adding roughly just enough new jobs to
(14:55):
keep joblessness joblessness in check. Well, if you keep joblessness
in check, then that unemployment rate shouldn't be jumping a
tenth of a percentage point or two tenths of a
percentage point.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
It should be what it was two months ago or so.
Speaker 2 (15:11):
Again, these numbers are, in my opinion, just are not
adding up market. Let me see jobless check a significant
cool down from the job seekers market that prevailed earlier
in the decade.
Speaker 1 (15:24):
Long frustrate.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
Now earlier in the decade, all right, we came out
of a pandemic when everybody, when businesses shut down, factories
shut down.
Speaker 1 (15:34):
The only thing that stayed.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
Open were hospitals and police officers, firefighters. Oh and by
the way, abortion clinics, but we won't get into that.
So these the other things were all shut down, and
so when everything opened up, then what you had is
more people pouring back into the job market that had
(15:58):
previously been on an employed. And of course the numbers
are going to look good at the beginning of the decade.
They're in twenty twenty one, the beginning of twenty twenty two.
But when you look at pre pandemic estimates or pre
plandemic numbers, the jobs that were added back during that
period of time did not match the number of jobs
(16:20):
that were lost that prior to them plandemic. And so
all this boasting from the previous administration about how many
jobs they created, Well, compare that number to the numbers
that were lost, and they still hadn't matched those numbers.
And to count that as a created job when it
is merely a job that is replacing or backfilling what
(16:44):
had been lost previously is not a gain. And the
employment range or the employment ranks. So it was a
false narrative that they kept cramming down our throats and
again talking about where the number of the numbers of
increases and the job increases that we saw at the
(17:04):
beginning of the decade, Well, hell, yes, you'd see a lot,
but you know, you shut everything down and you're at zero,
So anything up from that is going to look fantastic.
Speaker 1 (17:15):
So anyway, significant cool.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
Down from the job seekers market that prevailed earlier in
the decade long, frustrating job searchers, and headlines about large
scales corporate layoffs are coloring the views of the labor
market far harder to navigate than it was a couple.
Speaker 1 (17:31):
Of years ago. Now, the headlines.
Speaker 2 (17:33):
About large scale corporate layoffs, not actual layoffs, the headlines
talking about corporate layoffs that are in the future, possibly
six months, seven months down the road as they've been
talking about over the last few weeks. So with that,
if you're just looking at headlines again and they haven't
(17:56):
actually come to fruition, why is that depressing people be
caught of the headline again. As I've talked about how
people go through their phones, all they do is scan
the headlines. They don't bother reading the story that don't
get into the details of the story like we do
here on America's truck and Network.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
In order to set that record straight.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
And as long as that, as long as the spoon
fed regurgitators in the mainstream media are going to keep
those headlines up, worse and worse the sentiment, the consumer
sentiment is going to be. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's Trucking Network.
Seven hundred WLW, seven hundred WLW. I'm Kevin Gordon. This
(18:43):
is America's Trucking Network. America's truck and Network supports a
mission and REES across America. You can hear us every
truck and Tuesday at five am and ten am Eastern
on REES across America Radio, available on the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 1 (18:58):
Search the word rese now that's.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
Wr EA ths for Reese Across America Radio, and thank
you to all our truckers for supporting the mission of
rees across America. By the way, again that date for
the laying of the res at the various cemeteries is
December the thirteenth. It is still not too late to
sponsor a wreath seventeen dollars mirror amount and that number
(19:24):
was the same as it was last year, so there's
no inflation there and a lot of these there's still
I think some open lanes that if you have some time,
if you can do maybe final mile or maybe a
little bit longer in terms of these trips, in terms
of picking up these reefs and getting them distributed across
the country, just check out Reese Across America.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
I believe it's dot org and get on their website.
Speaker 2 (19:49):
It's a great website, great amount of tools, a lot
of stuff having to do with all the stuff that
they do throughout the year. So it's a great organization.
Proud to be part of it, Proud to be part
of recent Across America Radio every truck and Tuesday, and
really appreciate that. By the way, if you miss any
part of our program or any of our previous shows,
(20:10):
hit up that iHeartRadio app and which has brought to
you by our friends at Rust Truck Centers, and we
certainly appreciate that. Again, getting back to this consumer sentiment
number and the facts in here, but I'm gonna just
read this headline, I under this, this this paragraph.
Speaker 1 (20:26):
I'm not too fond of it.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
But recent consumer surveys have portrayed a fault line in
America's sentiment. Those with large stock stark stock portfolios are
feeling more positive than people with fewer holdings because of
the roaring market has fueled significant gains for investors. Well,
there's an awful lot. There's a large percentage of the
people out there. I don't know off the top of
(20:49):
my head, I don't remember what the number is. But
if you have a four oh one k, or if
you're invested in your company's program in terms of either
pension or their participation in if you have the four
oh one k through work and then they max that
or equal that or whatever from the corporations, you're still
(21:11):
in the market. You're not seeing it on a regular basis.
You're seeing in your statements on a quarterly basis or
on a monthly basis. But again, you are still involved
in the stock market. Now some of the people that
are not involved in the stock market, well, you know, people, Again,
this doesn't change whether you're having fantastic economic times, middle
(21:34):
of the road economic times, or downturn. During the recession
back in or they call it the Great recession back
in two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine or so,
people were still making money. People with the right count
that had the wherewithal and that could wait things out
as far as the downturn in the market did very
(21:56):
well during that period of time. But again those that
weren't invested in and that didn't do so well. We
saw in the housing market. We talked about that on
this program, where in twenty two thousand and eight, two
thousand and nine, the housing market collapsed. We had a
kind of across the board reduction of about forty percent
in the value of homes, and so people found themselves underwater.
(22:19):
And as as we got through the recession, those numbers
came up back up. It took a little bit longer
than what it normally takes in a recession, but by
twenty twelve twenty fourteen, people were back to where they
were before the recession began, and so holding onto the
home if you have the people maintaining their jobs and
trying to go through some creative measures to hang onto
(22:41):
the house. Because there were some programs that were done
by the banks in order to try to keep people
in because they didn't want those homes dumped on them,
because if somebody wounds up, if they wound up wind
up for closing on homes and they can't sell those homes,
they're stuck with that home on their books. And so
there was a lot of leaf programs that were done
(23:01):
during that period of time. But again, you don't base
this on because you know, I've talked in terms before
of you know, in a lot of instances of what
we look at as far as what's going on in
the economy or the country or so on. Sometimes it
boils down to not only necessarily Republicans versus Democrats, Conservatives
(23:21):
versus liberals. It has to do with the affected class
versus the unaffected class. The liberals in Hollywood, the liberals
on the DNC side, they're not affected. If they're the
upper class, they're not affected by this. The rich people
on the right in the conservative side, they're not affected
by that, but we the affected class here in the middle,
(23:43):
we are affected by every one of these things. And
so it's a battle between the affected class and the
unaffected class. And that's being and they're playing this up
as if in this article, as if it's something new
that has never been there before. But even those good
feelings could face a test amid rough November on Wall
Street with the rise in the in the stock market,
(24:07):
the stock market over the last month. Now, remember back
on Liberation Day, back on April the second, the stock
market went down tremendously. It was more than a correction,
I think it was what it was at fifteen to
twenty percent down almost overnight, and then people that hung
in there did. Stock market over the last couple of
(24:27):
months have not only beat what it was prior to
April the second, but gone even higher. And on a weekly,
on a daily basis, for about three or four weeks
there every day was a record high, not a record
high for the week, not a record high for the month,
not a record high for the past six months, but
(24:49):
a record high ever in the stock market. So when
you have that rapid increase during that period of time,
at some point people are going to take some you know,
take winnings off the table cash in kind of take
their you know, take their earnings and take their wins
and then go back into the market later on. But
(25:10):
again that is where people where the market starts going down,
and what they talk about is we're not even near
what they talk in terms as far as a correction
in the market. It's gone down a little bit, but
it hasn't gone down to the point where it's actually
considered a correction. So any of this playing up that oh, well,
(25:31):
you know the stock market was down five percent and
recent you know, and so on, well, you know, until
it gets up to the ten fifteen percent, you're not
in the correction. Weaker employment picture prompted two interest rate
cuts from the Federal Reserve at the Central Banks meeting
in September October, but officials have appeared split on whether
they should hold rates steady in December. Although both challenges
(25:55):
are clearly weighing on consumers concerns about a long run inflation.
Long run inflation un lest at least hasn't been worsening,
according to the Michigan Survey, a reassuring sign for the
Fed because fears of persistent inflation are sometimes thought to
become self fulfilling. And again what I talked about earlier
(26:17):
is that we keep talking about inflation, keep talking about inflation.
People are going to people are going to be thinking
in terms of inflation, whether or not they're feeling it.
Speaker 1 (26:26):
In their own home or not.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
Long run inflation expectations fell to now get this, okay,
Long term expectations for inflation fell to three point four percent,
down from three point nine percent in October. So people
forecasting out thinking that inflation was going to be approaching
four percent are now back down to the three percent range.
(26:51):
So how can those people that feel that way have
a bad sentiment as far as the economy is concerned.
Like I said, a lot of these numbers and the
way they're displaying them just don't add up, And it
almost seems like you've got a jackal in a hyde
economy out there, where the media is talking it down,
but that people are being resilient and working through it. Now,
(27:15):
coming up, we're going to be talking about the job's numbers,
because those came in pretty hot last week and a
lot of good information there, and we'll get to that
coming up. I'm Kevin Gordon America's struck A network. Seven
hundred WLW seven hundred WLW. I'm Kevin Gordon. This is
(27:35):
America's struck A network. I mentioned in the previous segment
that the job numbers came in last week. Non farm
payroll one hundred and nineteen thousand added, a jobless rate
goes up to four point four. Like I said, the
numbers don't add up. As far as I'm concerned, US
economy added substantially more jobs than expected in September. According
to the long awaited report Thursday from the Bureau of
(27:57):
Labor Statistics, non farm payroll increased by one hundred and
nineteen thousand in a month, up from the four thousand
jobs lost in August. So that's a swing of one
hundred and twenty three thousand jobs Following a downward revision.
The Dow Jones consensus estimate for September was fifty thousand,
(28:20):
so the economists were expecting for September only fifty thousand increase.
It came in at one hundred and nineteen thousand, so
their estimates were off, and their expectations were off by
one hundred and thirty eight percent. The July total was
also revised down to seventy two thousand, a decrease of
(28:41):
seven thousand from the prior release. In addition to the
headline's job numbers that we talked about before BLS, the
unemployment rage rate edged up higher to four point four percent,
the highest it's been since October of twenty twenty one.
A broader measure that includes the those not looking for
jobs or working part time for economic reasons edged lower
(29:06):
to eight percent. Now they don't say edge lower from what,
But I did look it up, and I saw a
number that was like eight point four or eight point
one that I couldn't get nailed that down. But still,
if the number of people that are considered unemployed and
have stopped working part of the labor participation rate is up,
(29:31):
then you would expect to see unemployment numbers go up.
If that number comes down, why is the unemployment number
going up again?
Speaker 1 (29:40):
These things just don't make any sense to me.
Speaker 2 (29:43):
Average hourly earnings increase point two percent for the month
and three point eight percent from a year ago, compared
to a respective forecast of three percent three point eight
So the forecasts were lower than what it actually came
in at report ends the data drought the labor market
that began in early September and continued through the record one,
(30:06):
record forty four day government shutdown, and who caused that
that was caused by the Democrats. The Schumer's shutdown agencies,
including the BLS and Bureau of Economic Analysis and others,
were prohibited from collecting or releasing data during the period.
This was the first report since the beginning of August thereabouts.
(30:28):
Daniel Zou, chief economists at job site Glass Doors, said,
September's jobs report shows the labor market still had resilience
before the shutdown, beating payroll expectations, but the picture remains muddy,
with August jobs revised to a job loss and unemployment
(30:49):
rate increasing again. Why is the rate increasing if the
jobs are creating are going up and the overall including
people who have stoppler looking for work, has come down.
Stock market futures nevertheless added to gains following the report.
Traders also continue to bet that the Federal Reserve will
(31:09):
not lower interest rates further at its December the ninth
and tenth meeting ninth through the tenth meeting, So that's
mudding the waters as far as that's concerned, and again
probably playing on as far as consumer sentiment is concerned.
Despite the fact that today jobs report is very backward looking.
This is a quote from Sema Shaw, she is chief
(31:32):
Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management. Despite the fact that
today's report is very backward looking, well what else would
it be if the jobs that were created? You have
to find out what those jobs are, and before you
report them. You can't forecast ahead and say, well, gee wiz,
let me get out my crystal ball and let me
(31:53):
see forward thinking in terms of what the job market
is going to be. Shoot, if you could do that,
you should, you know, do that crystal ball.
Speaker 1 (32:01):
To find lottery numbers.
Speaker 2 (32:03):
Equities like the fact that the payrolls were stronger than expected,
suggesting the economy is still on firm footing, while the
bond market likes the rise in unemployment slow down so on. Overall,
the report shows that the labor market entered the autumn
months on much the same footing and has it been
all year long, slow but steady pace. People are not
(32:23):
getting laid off, and people are not businesses are not
laying off, and they're not hiring. Separate Labor Department release
on Thursday showed that the initial jobless claims. Talking about
those unemployment numbers have come down that way. On the downside,
transpency jobs were added in healthcare forty three thousand. Bars
and restaurants contributed thirty seven thousand. Those are in the
(32:45):
service industries, So if those are up, people are out.
They're not hiring people in that area, or they're not
increasing their staff if the business isn't there. So apparently
people are out spending money at bars and restaurants and
they need the staff to fulfill that. Transportation and warehousing
lost twenty five thousand jobs, part of the loss of
ninety seven on the calendar year. Professional business services also
(33:10):
reported to decline, the twenty thousand fueled by the drop
of sixteen thousand and temporary help. Now they do report
later on that the number of people working part time,
and see that again, this is one of those numbers
that don't add up. Rolls for full employment swelled by
six hundred and seventy three thousand, while part timers fell
(33:30):
by five hundred and seventy three. Now was that sixteen
thousand the temporary help lost? Did they become full time?
They don't explain in here. Total level of those employed
rose by two hundred and fifty one thousand, while the
labor force increased by four hundred and seventy thousand to
a fresh record of one hundred and seventy one million
(33:53):
people working. That is a record number of people working.
The participation rate, which measures the share of the working
age population either working or seeking employment, edged higher to
sixty two point four percent, the highest since May. So,
like I said, these numbers are not adding up. If
they're talking about unemployment going up, then why are job
(34:16):
seekers the number of people added to the labor force
going up, and a record number of people participating in
the job market.
Speaker 1 (34:23):
I just don't understand it. Now.
Speaker 2 (34:27):
One of the things that I want to get to
here real quick is some of the comments that were
made in terms of what oil prices are doing. Because
oil prices currently West Texas Intermediate crude is at fifty
eight dollars and eighty one cents a barrel. That's seventy
five cents from Friday, But just since January the twentieth,
it's down eighteen dollars and eight cents. That's a twenty
(34:50):
four percent decrease since January. Brent crude down is at
sixty three thirty four, up about a buck from Friday,
but since January is down sixteen dollars and fifty six cents,
that is a twenty one percent decrease, So again those
prices are coming down there now looking at what's going
(35:12):
on in the oil markets. The headline was and when
you print it off, it talks about interest rates, but
the headline on the website was oil prices edge higher
as US interest rates and Ukraine peace talks jostle for attention.
Speaker 1 (35:30):
Now, one of the things that popped out on.
Speaker 2 (35:32):
This report is they talk about what is going on
in terms of Russia, whether or not they're going to
reach some sort of an agreement, whether there's going to
be this peace dividend, or whether or not the price
is going to go up, whether Russian oil companies, if
the sanctions are going to be lifted off there, and
(35:52):
whether or not oil is going to be flowing into
the market and so on. They talked about how the
Federal Reserve is kicking around the idea there are a
lot of members of the Federal Reserve that are talking
about wanting to decrease interest rates. In their meeting onto
some of the sixth through the seventh I think that
number was, but then there are some that are holding
(36:13):
out and saying that they should be remaining the same fat.
Governor Christopher Waller sat on Monday that the available data
indicates the US job market remains weak enough to warrant
another quarter point cut, though action beyond that will depend
on the flood of data and so on from the
growth of labor statistics.
Speaker 1 (36:33):
Hit this line in here.
Speaker 2 (36:35):
Lower interest rates could boost economic growth and oil demand
by reducing borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
What have I been saying on this.
Speaker 2 (36:47):
Program, on and on and on about our interest rates
being higher than they are in Europe, in Canada, across
some of the developed countries, and Lion Jerry Powell keeping
our interest rates high, artificially high, in my opinion, that
is stifling the economy. Let me repeat that last sentence.
(37:09):
Lower interest rates could boost economic growth and oil demand
by reducing borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. So, when
you have more money in your pocket because you're not
paying sky high interest rates, that makes the house that
you're in more affordable, or the house you would like
(37:31):
to attain become more affordable. You get more bang for
your buck. In terms of where your salary is versus
the size house you can buy or the price of
the house you can buy, and it reduces your monthly payment.
And so if your monthly payment is down, there's more
money in your pocket. You have more money to spend
(37:51):
on discretionary things, which then means that you're out about
possibly buying more stuff at a store, whether a retail
chain or whether it's at food and restaurant. We saw
the job numbers where increases in the restaurant and bar
staffs are up. So again, when they're talking about interest
(38:13):
rate decreases stimulate the economy. If the Federal Reserve they
say that their intention or that their mission is to
keep inflation low and to keep the job market strong.
The job market has been strong. The number of the
amount of inflation is holding steady. It's a at the
(38:34):
level that it's been for the last well a couple
of years, basically well with lower than what it was
during the Biden years in twenty twenty two and twenty
twenty three, but as far as twenty twenty four. Towards
the end of twenty twenty four and then into this year,
it's been relatively the same somewhere around the two point
seven to three percent range, so it's not drastically going
(38:56):
up and the Fed wanting that interest rate or that
inflation rate down round two percent. It hasn't been around
two percent since the previous Trump administration at two point one,
so given what the economy does during the Trump administration,
we should see that coming down and at least they
have the track record of that and can adjust that
(39:17):
interest rate down, which, as they say, will spur the economy. Well, folks,
that does it for us. Stay tuned for Redie Radio
at top the hour. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's Trucking Network
seven hundred WLW
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