Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Joining us now to talk about the big beautiful Bill.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Doctor Daniel Nathaniel rather Cogley joins us on the Vice
president's trip recently to Canton, Ohio and talking about this
with a lot of folks there. Welcome in, doctor, I
appreciate you being here.
Speaker 3 (00:13):
Good morning, JT.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
So you're an associate professor of political science, and so
you're you're in this arena here with us on what's
going on with this big beautiful bill. And there's a
lot of layers to it, obviously, and it really has
come to be something that's really going to be benefiting
the country more than it hurts the country. And there's
obviously the debt ceiling is a concern, and others are
(00:35):
you know, nitpicking things. But as a whole, would you
agree that this bill is going to be good once
it lays out and has some time to you know,
grow some legs.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
Yeah, it's so big that not everyone knows how beautiful
it is. Right, So it's eight hundred and seven pages long.
Your average voter hasn't read the thing, and there's a
lot of different opinions out there on it, and most
of this is secondhand information. And so Vice President Vance
was in Ohio where he was a senator, and he's
also in a swing district, and he's trying to sell
(01:08):
the virtues of the Big Beautiful Bill as Democrat has
excuse me, Republicans pushed to try to hold the House
in these mid term elections, you know. And I watched
the speech thirty minute speech in Canton, and Vance was
selling the virtues of more take home pay with the
changes in tax structure. But he was also very much
(01:29):
explaining how the one hundred percent expansing for factories or
expanding factories really couples with the tariffs on foreign products.
The Big Beautiful Bill will encourage domestic investment to you know,
get American production going. So he's out there and the
administration is going to keep being out there to try to,
(01:50):
you know, sell how good the Big Beautiful Bill will
be for Americans in hopes of holding the House. I think,
you know, the party opposite the president has won House
elections for the last twenty years. The last time the
party of the president won the House in midterm was
two thousand and two under Bush. Before that, it was
nineteen seventy eight under Carter. The more norms, the opposing
(02:14):
party takes of the president takes the House, and the
Trump administration definitely doesn't want that.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
While it can be.
Speaker 3 (02:20):
Frustrating for Republicans the slim majority in the House doesn't
always deliver everything they want, it's certainly better for the
Trump administration and the Democrats. You remember Democrats had the House.
They impeach Trump twice, very hostile investigations, constant investigations and accusations.
So the administration looks to really be trying to sell
(02:41):
what they've accomplished so far in hopes of holding the House.
Speaker 2 (02:44):
You know, let's talk about where we are in the
short period of time the president was reelected. I mean,
it is really moving the needle in so many different
areas and in the right direction with this administration. For
this country, the border, trying to negotiate the war to
come to an end, obviously, the economy is rocking right now,
and the tariff deals. You know, everybody was screaming about,
(03:06):
oh my gosh, if he does that, it's going to
be horrific for our households, and it's going to be
awful for the country, and the relationships are going to
crumble and all of a sudden, well, nothing happened.
Speaker 1 (03:15):
In fact, it's kind of going good.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
You look at the New York Times reporter and never
Trumper finally came around and said, you know what, I
was wrong on this. You look at Bill Maher, always
attacking the president, but he's also got somewhat of a
level head occasionally, and he did on this issue the
economist over at CNBC who laid a couple of f
bombs talking about but he says, I got to admit
the economy's rocking right now.
Speaker 1 (03:35):
We're doing pretty good here. So with all of that said.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
In the big beautiful Bill and what jad Events was
explaining in Ohio during his speech down the road here,
he even said, look, Democrats, if you don't like it,
come talk to us about what's going on here. Do
you believe that this wave is sustainable for this administration?
And will Democrats finally get off the high horses about
our platform as we hate Trump and start coming up
(04:01):
with real things that mean something to American people if
they're going.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
To survive America.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
You know, grew on tariffs, We became rich on tariffs.
You know, we have a tax structure focused on the
income tax, which basically taxes working in the US, it
taxes the domestic production side, and you can only really
do that if you also taxt foreign production equally through
a tariff. And somehow in the US we got into
this free trade environment where we actually tax domestic production
(04:30):
but not foreign production. And so no, I've been with
Trump the entire time on tariffs, and Trump knows tariffs
very well, and he knows how to encourage domestic production.
So I think his economic policy adjustments are real. I
think they're very much sustainable. And a lot of Democrats
used to be for teriffs too in the past. You know,
(04:52):
they were concerned about how free trade created kind of
a race to the bottom and low worker standards and
other countries, and low environmental standards in other countries. So
somehow they'd lost that argument amongst themselves. But yeah, you know,
the Democratic Party will try to bounce back here, and
(05:12):
they do have a chance at taking the House. These
elections are still close. I do not believe they have
a chance to taking the Senate. The map is very
good for Republicans to hold the Senate. Trump's not up
for election, but it's going to come down to this House,
and it'll be very close. Right now, Democrats have about
two and a half percent generic ballot spread, but Republicans
last time beat the generic ballot predictions about two and
(05:34):
a half percent as well. So this is a very
close House election.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
Well, the numbers are out and they've never had worse
likability numbers in the Democrat party. Now with you just
non approval, it's just horrific right now. And if they
don't change course, in fact, stop doubling down with what
they're doing with this New York City mayoral candidate, if
they keep going in that direction, I mean your prediction.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
Yeah, they have a branding issue. I think they've been
pushing some policies that just don't resonate with your average
American who's got a family and a day to get through.
You know, kind of the whole women's sports things. They're
just really late to get to get to that. You know. So, yeah,
they got they got a branding issue to fix, but
(06:21):
you know a lot of times people don't maybe aren't
the swing voter isn't happy with either party, you know.
So generic ballot is a you know, Democrats have a
slight advantage at the moment, but I do think it
is possible for Republicans to hold the House given you know,
the Democratic Party doesn't have h you know, a policy
vision that's really resonated with independent voters.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
Right now.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
Yeah, I don't see them making any major changes.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
You know.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
It's it's it's not like, Okay, we get it now,
let's let's go the other direction. Stop talking about Trump
and talk about how we can do a better job
of what's happening in the country right now. They're so
far from doing that, they'd have to abandon a lot
of their principles and what they believe. All Right, buddy,
I appreciate you, doctor Nathaniel Cockley. We will have you back.
Joining us now to talk about the big beautiful Bill.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Doctor Daniel Nathaniel rather Cogley joins us on the Vice
president's trip recently to Canton, Ohio and talking about this
with a lot of folks there. Welcome in, doctor, I
appreciate you being here.
Speaker 3 (00:13):
Good morning, JT.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
So you're an associate professor of political science, and so
you're you're in this arena here with us on what's
going on with this big beautiful bill. And there's a
lot of layers to it, obviously, and it really has
come to be something that's really going to be benefiting
the country more than it hurts the country. And there's
obviously the debt ceiling is a concern, and others are
(00:35):
you know, nitpicking things. But as a whole, would you
agree that this bill is going to be good once
it lays out and has some time to you know,
grow some legs.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
Yeah, it's so big that not everyone knows how beautiful
it is. Right, So it's eight hundred and seven pages long.
Your average voter hasn't read the thing, and there's a
lot of different opinions out there on it, and most
of this is secondhand information. And so Vice President Vance
was in Ohio where he was a senator, and he's
also in a swing district, and he's trying to sell
(01:08):
the virtues of the Big Beautiful Bill as Democrat has
excuse me, Republicans pushed to try to hold the House
in these mid term elections, you know. And I watched
the speech thirty minute speech in Canton, and Vance was
selling the virtues of more take home pay with the
changes in tax structure. But he was also very much
(01:29):
explaining how the one hundred percent expansing for factories or
expanding factories really couples with the tariffs on foreign products.
The Big Beautiful Bill will encourage domestic investment to you know,
get American production going. So he's out there and the
administration is going to keep being out there to try to,
(01:50):
you know, sell how good the Big Beautiful Bill will
be for Americans in hopes of holding the House. I think,
you know, the party opposite the president has won House
elections for the last twenty years. The last time the
party of the president won the House in midterm was
two thousand and two under Bush. Before that, it was
nineteen seventy eight under Carter. The more norms, the opposing
(02:14):
party takes of the president takes the House, and the
Trump administration definitely doesn't want that.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
While it can be.
Speaker 3 (02:20):
Frustrating for Republicans the slim majority in the House doesn't
always deliver everything they want, it's certainly better for the
Trump administration and the Democrats. You remember Democrats had the House.
They impeach Trump twice, very hostile investigations, constant investigations and accusations.
So the administration looks to really be trying to sell
(02:41):
what they've accomplished so far in hopes of holding the House.
Speaker 2 (02:44):
You know, let's talk about where we are in the
short period of time the president was reelected. I mean,
it is really moving the needle in so many different
areas and in the right direction with this administration. For
this country, the border, trying to negotiate the war to
come to an end, obviously, the economy is rocking right now,
and the tariff deals. You know, everybody was screaming about,
(03:06):
oh my gosh, if he does that, it's going to
be horrific for our households, and it's going to be
awful for the country, and the relationships are going to
crumble and all of a sudden, well, nothing happened.
Speaker 1 (03:15):
In fact, it's kind of going good.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
You look at the New York Times reporter and never
Trumper finally came around and said, you know what, I
was wrong on this. You look at Bill Maher, always
attacking the president, but he's also got somewhat of a
level head occasionally, and he did on this issue the
economist over at CNBC who laid a couple of f
bombs talking about but he says, I got to admit
the economy's rocking right now.
Speaker 1 (03:35):
We're doing pretty good here. So with all of that said.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
In the big beautiful Bill and what jad Events was
explaining in Ohio during his speech down the road here,
he even said, look, Democrats, if you don't like it,
come talk to us about what's going on here. Do
you believe that this wave is sustainable for this administration?
And will Democrats finally get off the high horses about
our platform as we hate Trump and start coming up
(04:01):
with real things that mean something to American people if
they're going.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
To survive America.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
You know, grew on tariffs, We became rich on tariffs.
You know, we have a tax structure focused on the
income tax, which basically taxes working in the US, it
taxes the domestic production side, and you can only really
do that if you also taxt foreign production equally through
a tariff. And somehow in the US we got into
this free trade environment where we actually tax domestic production
(04:30):
but not foreign production. And so no, I've been with
Trump the entire time on tariffs, and Trump knows tariffs
very well, and he knows how to encourage domestic production.
So I think his economic policy adjustments are real. I
think they're very much sustainable. And a lot of Democrats
used to be for teriffs too in the past. You know,
(04:52):
they were concerned about how free trade created kind of
a race to the bottom and low worker standards and
other countries, and low environmental standards in other countries. So
somehow they'd lost that argument amongst themselves. But yeah, you know,
the Democratic Party will try to bounce back here, and
(05:12):
they do have a chance at taking the House. These
elections are still close. I do not believe they have
a chance to taking the Senate. The map is very
good for Republicans to hold the Senate. Trump's not up
for election, but it's going to come down to this House,
and it'll be very close. Right now, Democrats have about
two and a half percent generic ballot spread, but Republicans
last time beat the generic ballot predictions about two and
(05:34):
a half percent as well. So this is a very
close House election.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
Well, the numbers are out and they've never had worse
likability numbers in the Democrat party. Now with you just
non approval, it's just horrific right now. And if they
don't change course, in fact, stop doubling down with what
they're doing with this New York City mayoral candidate, if
they keep going in that direction, I mean your prediction.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
Yeah, they have a branding issue. I think they've been
pushing some policies that just don't resonate with your average
American who's got a family and a day to get through.
You know, kind of the whole women's sports things. They're
just really late to get to get to that. You know. So, yeah,
they got they got a branding issue to fix, but
(06:21):
you know a lot of times people don't maybe aren't
the swing voter isn't happy with either party, you know.
So generic ballot is a you know, Democrats have a
slight advantage at the moment, but I do think it
is possible for Republicans to hold the House given you know,
the Democratic Party doesn't have h you know, a policy
vision that's really resonated with independent voters.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
Right now.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
Yeah, I don't see them making any major changes.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
You know.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
It's it's it's not like, Okay, we get it now,
let's let's go the other direction. Stop talking about Trump
and talk about how we can do a better job
of what's happening in the country right now. They're so
far from doing that, they'd have to abandon a lot
of their principles and what they believe. All Right, buddy,
I appreciate you, doctor Nathaniel Cockley. We will have you back.
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