Jay Ratliff has the latest on Air India crash

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
My name is John Mounts. I'm filling in for JT
today and every Wednesday we talk with Jay Ratliff from
Daytrade Fund dot Com and j Trump. Trump is continuing
to push for an interest rate cut and markets are
expecting fewer cuts this year's what does this mean to
my four to one k?

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Well, at this point in time, we're gonna have to
wait and see everything that's gonna take place with it,
because President Trump is pushing Jerme Palin the Fed saying, look,
we are way overdue for an interest rate cut a reduction,
because that.

Speaker 1 (00:31):
Would sorry, I don't know why where that's coming from.
Something is playing back. Sorry, sorry, go ahead, Jay, Hey.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
No problem at all. But one of the things is
Trump's trying to pressure the Fed into cutting the rates, saying,
now is the time that the inflation is down just
a bit, we had a decent jobs report at the
beginning of the month, and they're saying now's the time
to do it. The problem is that even though there
would be an interest rate cut, it would certainly be
well received by the market, but the problem it would

(01:00):
be short lived, and the FED, coming out of the pandemic,
had to create a playbook that has never been written
on how to try to come out of a situation
like that where you can stay ahead of inflation, because
once you get behind it, you can't catch up. So
Jerome Pal and them have been very patient at the FED,
and it's expected at today's press conference he will announce

(01:22):
that there's going to be an interest rate pause continuing,
which is expected. But you know what they're really wanting
to hear is what's the Fed's take on the health
of the economy and would the markets see maybe two
interest rate cuts by the end of the year. That's
what they're hoping to hear from Jerome Pal today. We'll
have to wait and see exactly what he says.

Speaker 1 (01:42):
And depending on what he does, I guess that's when
markets will react in the meantime. Is it kind of
too soon for I know, there's a lot of people
who they try and time the market, and they try
and plan things out, and they try and get just
a little bit of a hedge. Is it's probably a
bad idea for people to try and read anything into
what you're saying, what he's saying and say, Okay, I'm
going to go ahead and completely redo my strategy.

Speaker 2 (02:04):
Well, it's always a bad idea to try a time
to I don't try to time the market. My students
in I time stocks, and that's a completely different thing.
But one of the problems is that when you try
to time things like that, it can really work against you.
But at this point in time, it's pretty well baked
into the market that things are going to stay as is.

(02:24):
And because they figured that the likelihood of any sort
of an interest rate cut is probably not going to
happen at earliest until September, so that's already the prevailing wisdom.
And that's kind of how everybody has unligned a lot
of their positions as they move forward. A surprise would
be if they came out and said, hey, we're going
to do it sooner than that, but really it would

(02:44):
be September, and I think September might be, excuse me,
the earliest we could see it. And according to Jerome
pal who's very very patient in these matters, he's only
going to make that move when it's prudent to do so.
And with the tariffs and a lot of things that
are still a bit uncertain, the Fed's very comfortable and
just maintaining the status quo.

Speaker 1 (03:05):
This is Alabama's Morning News. My name is John Mounsin
speaking with Jay Ratliff from datafun dot com and Jay
was also an executive with I think it was Northwest Airlines, right, yes, yeah,
So you have a lot of experience in the airline
industry and an issue that a lot of people have
been talking about is that Air India crash, especially watching
the videos and seeing the seeing this thing unfold before

(03:29):
our eyes, and there was a there was as I understand,
there was one man. There was actually a person, which
is very unusual in a situation like this. One lone
guy walked away from this crash, or at least is
alleged to. Is that what you've seen.

Speaker 2 (03:41):
It is, And we've had horrific crashes before. I know
at Northwest we had an aircraft that went down in
Detroit that killed everybody on board except for a little girl.
So there's times when you have a miracle amid the tragedy,
and you're thankful every time that happens. And of course
the question is what would cause a Boeing seven eighty
seven Dreamliner that's been around for a better part of

(04:04):
fourteen fifteen years to just fall out of the sky
like that we really don't know yet. We do know
that seventy nine airlines around the world use a Dreamliner
seven eighty seven, So if there's some sort of a problem,
we need to find out what it is and quick
because apparently they lost power in both engines, which normally
doesn't happen unless you have a bird strike or fuel
contamination or some sort of serious, serious electronic issue which

(04:29):
they may have been battling. So they've got the two
black boxes. They'll be able to hopefully glean some information
from those, unless they were damaged by the heat, and
if so, they'll be able to determine exactly what happened.
And if there is a problem or something that needs
to be looked at on those Dreamliners, they'll know pretty
quick because obviously speed is of the essence when you've

(04:50):
got an unknown situation like this, And hopefully we can
find out in short order. Even though the entire investigation
will take maybe a year, they should have an initial
indicat with them the next week or so.

Speaker 1 (05:02):
Jay I've watched some analysis from insiders who are experienced
with this sort of thing have kind of done their
best to analyze the one video, the one we've seen
of the plane taking off, and they said, it doesn't
appear to that. What I've seen is is it doesn't
appear to them to be bird strike, because if it
were a bird that got sucked into an engine, you
would have seen something come out of the back side

(05:22):
of the engine. And you don't see any flame out
of the engine. Almost it looks as if And another
thing was is the plane the wheels were up so
like they were in it. They have already rotated, they were,
they were well on their way, and it just it's
almost as if I'm not I'm not saying this is
the case, way too early to day is, but almost
as if somebody, somebody in the cockpit just you know,

(05:43):
just you know, power down and brought it because you
saw it take it air and then and then it didn't,
and it it almost looks intentional.

Speaker 2 (05:50):
Well, the problem is we got a made a call,
which is unusual when you only have a sixty second
flight like this from the captain saying that they had
a power loss. So so apparently they were fighting something
that had to do with the power and the landing
gear was down. And you're absolutely right. When I was
on a lot of the national show's Thursday. One of
the first observations I made was that there was no

(06:11):
outward signs of distress from the aircraft, meaning there wasn't
flames coming from apart that nothing seemed to had been
blown up or been shot at those kinds of things,
and you're right on a bird ingestion, we would have
some sort of smoke, fire, sparks, something that would have
been showing out of the air aircraft engines which were not.
And the retraction of the landing gear, and you're right,

(06:33):
the landing gear was down if they were having problems
with the engine. It's the engines that drive that power
to retract the landing gear. So you're right right after rotation,
right after you leave the ground, normally on fifty feet,
the gear comes up. But if they were having problems
with power, you would have been unable to retract that

(06:54):
landing gear. And apparently the RAM or the RAM air turbine,
which is a little propeller thing that drops down automatically
if there's a loss of power, was deployed, and if
that's the case, that would have been an automatic thing
that would have occurred to give the crew some electrical
power on the flight. Deck that's needed if there's some
sort of a power loss, and apparently that had been deployed,

(07:16):
meaning they were fighting a very serious loss of power.
And you know, sadly, when you have four hundred feet
of altitude, you don't have time to work the problem.
And I don't care how much flight you know, how
much experience you have on the flight deck, if you
don't have enough altitude to work a problem like that,
you're simply not going to be able to do it.

(07:37):
And sadly they just did not have that, and that
aircraft just fell out of the sky.

Speaker 1 (07:41):
And Jay, this is not a case of remember with
the seven thirty sevens of the MCAST system, where would
it would see like a stall and it would put
the plane into a nose down configuration which could cause
something like this. But they don't have anything like that
in these seventy eighty sevens.

Speaker 2 (07:55):
Do they They do not. And in a situation like that,
the MCAST would actually take the control away from the
pilot for ten seconds and force it into a dive
and then it would release it and the crew would
have five seconds unless the aircraft continued to detect a stall,
and then it would have taken it down another ten seconds.
So in that situation, you've seen the plane go up,

(08:17):
go down, go up. That type of thing is we
had with those two horrific Boeing Max crashes, and that
wasn't the case here. This seems to be power related
or lack thereof. And the best way for us to
honor the lives of those that were lost is to
try to determine exactly what happens so that we can
as much as possible prevent it from happening in the future.

Speaker 1 (08:35):
I wonder has there been any conversations with the man
who survived, because I imagine he I know he was
just a passenger, but he could at least maybe report
what he heard, what he saw, what he felt.

Speaker 2 (08:46):
Being the long survivor, Yeah, and real quick, he gave
us a little bit of information, but remember all that
he went through. You just don't know. But he said
there seemed to be a loud bang of some kind
and a flicker with the lights, and that as it
comes down is a lot like a landing gear. You
would hear that, especially if you're up close to the
front of the airplane, and the flicker would be something

(09:07):
that would be consistent with that ram air turbine kicking
in providing electrical power to the aircraft. So a lot
of times you have to take those first hand accounts
because of everything they're going through with a little bit
of some information, but it John, it's gonna be those
two black boxes that are really going to give us
the key information and critical data that we need to
find out exactly what happened here.

Speaker 1 (09:28):
I agree. Jay Ratliff, our daytrade fund, dot com expert,
and our aviation expert, thank you so much for joining
us on Alabama's morning news