Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Joining us now, Jay Rattliff, to take a look at
our market and what's going on with the FED as
the government is still shut down. Jay, good morning, Welcome in,
my friend Ed. I wanted to ask you right out
of the gate, do you believe that the government shutdown
has any immediate effect on the market and the roller
coaster ride that in the emotional basket case that the
market is none.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
If there is any, it's minimal, because sadly this happens
so often, it's looked at his business as usual. So
I've told you before a long time ago, I learned
to look at the stock market tech kind of gauge
how serious the situation is. And as we approach the
government's shutdown, hit the government shutdown, going through the government
shut down, Look, we've been here before, and we know
(00:41):
what happens. The Government's going to continue, and you know,
the vast majority of things that need to get done
are going to get done. And it's annoying, but from
a market standpoint, they kind of yawn. We're more interested
in today what the FED is going to say with
regards to the minutes for the September meeting that are
going to be released because investors are trying to get
(01:03):
a handle on Okay, could we see one more interest
right cut? Maybe two more this year? And what maybe
the expectations for twenty twenty six. That's where the focus
is at. And you know, and it's something you see,
this game of politics that continues to go on, and
it's the reason that President Trump has been elected not
once but twice. So many of us are tired of
(01:26):
politics as usual. So this is something that the market
looks at as a normal thing.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
Well, let me ask you this. Some are saying this
is a kind of a dangerous market and not a
lot of folks are paying attention to it. What are
they talking about in a dangerous market?
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Well, there's a price to earnings ratio. It's a formulation
that is used to kind of see our price, our
stocks price historically and based on the earning projections at
their current value or under their current value or above it.
And what we're seeing is that the stock market right now,
(02:00):
the number of stocks that we have, the prices that
you have, and when you're looking at this pe ratio,
it's incredibly high. In fact, way way way too high,
higher than it should be. And only this is only
the second time. I think in one hundred and fifty
seven years that it's been this high. And I think
the second the first time was the dot com bubble
(02:20):
thing that we went through at the end of the
last decade. The people that were around certainly remember. The
bottom line right now is that so many stocks are
at all time highs and you still have people rushing
in the door with money saying, well, my friend tried
to get me to buy this last year. I did,
and his portfolio is up twelve percent. I'm missing out.
So emotion causes somebody to bust the door down and
(02:41):
throw their money into something that's at its all time
high price. And I tell people, look, you don't shop
that way. You don't looking for a car and say, no,
price isn't high enough. It's got to go higher. That's
what I'm going to buy it. You wait for things
to go on sale. So I constantly tell people that, yeah,
there could be an impressive market pullback. It could be
next month, it could be next year. We don't know,
but if history is any indication, I certainly think that
(03:04):
it is here. We're going to see a market correction
that's going to hurt now for people who've got money
on the sidelines, that know what stocks they like, and
they've got a predetermined price, if it's twenty thirty percent
or whatever happens to be on what they want to
go after. When the market does go through that natural
correction cycle, which it does all the time JT. They're
in a perfect position to buy these stocks on sale.
(03:25):
But the problem is after they have put the money
in at incredibly high prices, as stocks are dropping, especially
people that are doing the monthly contributions, they panic. Instead
of celebrating the fact that, look, I'm not retiring for
a bunch of years, and now I'm buying a bunch
of stocks I like at a highly discounted price. A
motion kicks the door down again and people that bought
(03:46):
high or selling low, and that's the opposite of what
we should be doing.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Deep breath and sit tight. Yeah. Absolutely, Well, Look, non
essential government employees are on furlough and the essential employees
are still going in. Why are not the FAA and
tower people and the control towers considered essential?
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Well they are, they absolutely are. It's you have about
fifty thousand people to work at the FAA and eleven
thousand using round numbers are non essential or not as essential,
and those eleven thousand have been furloughed for the time being.
None of those are air traffic controllers. But when you
listen to the headlines and you and I know how
(04:27):
this works. The Burbank Airport had to shut down because
they didn't have any air traffic controllers on duty, and
obviously that's the fault of the government shut down, and
as President Trump's fault. Nashville had a shortage of air
traffic controllers. We had delays of two hours. Obviously President
Trump's fault. And of course I raised my hand from
the back of the room, sax Champia. We've had about
(04:49):
nine months, one thousand occurrences where we've had to shut
down an FAA control tower due to a lack of
personnel a thousand, So please don't but we know what
they do. They look for something they can use to
kind of push there whatever. Right, But the bottom line
is we've had this happen a thousand times in the
last nine months. There's the shortage of air traffic controllers
(05:11):
and it's period, but it could get worse. And here's
my concern. The people that are working as air traffic
controllers are going to get a partial paycheck next Tuesday,
on the fourteenth, and then no check on the twenty
eighth if this continues. And a lot of these individuals
have secondary jobs that pay them so they can take
sick leave now and go work at whatever and make
(05:32):
money to pay their bills, and I think that's what
a lot of these individuals are looking at doing. So
hopefully this is going to get resolved soon, because we're
a month and a half away from the busiest travel
week of the year and Thanksgiving. Last thing in the
world you want to have is this mess then, So
I suspect before then we'll get it resolved. But yeah, please, yeah,
the FA we don't have enough air traffic controllers as
(05:53):
it is. When we start having people call in sick,
we're already straining and already strained system and it's only
going to get.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
Worse, all right, Jay, thank you for the update. Very good.
I appreciate you.
Joining us now, Jay Rattliff, to take a look at
our market and what's going on with the FED as
the government is still shut down. Jay, good morning, Welcome in,
my friend Ed. I wanted to ask you right out
of the gate, do you believe that the government shutdown
has any immediate effect on the market and the roller
coaster ride that in the emotional basket case that the
market is none.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
If there is any, it's minimal, because sadly this happens
so often, it's looked at his business as usual. So
I've told you before a long time ago, I learned
to look at the stock market tech kind of gauge
how serious the situation is. And as we approach the
government's shutdown, hit the government shutdown, going through the government
shut down, Look, we've been here before, and we know
(00:41):
what happens. The Government's going to continue, and you know,
the vast majority of things that need to get done
are going to get done. And it's annoying, but from
a market standpoint, they kind of yawn. We're more interested
in today what the FED is going to say with
regards to the minutes for the September meeting that are
going to be released because investors are trying to get
(01:03):
a handle on Okay, could we see one more interest
right cut? Maybe two more this year? And what maybe
the expectations for twenty twenty six. That's where the focus
is at. And you know, and it's something you see,
this game of politics that continues to go on, and
it's the reason that President Trump has been elected not
once but twice. So many of us are tired of
(01:26):
politics as usual. So this is something that the market
looks at as a normal thing.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
Well, let me ask you this. Some are saying this
is a kind of a dangerous market and not a
lot of folks are paying attention to it. What are
they talking about in a dangerous market?
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Well, there's a price to earnings ratio. It's a formulation
that is used to kind of see our price, our
stocks price historically and based on the earning projections at
their current value or under their current value or above it.
And what we're seeing is that the stock market right now,
(02:00):
the number of stocks that we have, the prices that
you have, and when you're looking at this pe ratio,
it's incredibly high. In fact, way way way too high,
higher than it should be. And only this is only
the second time. I think in one hundred and fifty
seven years that it's been this high. And I think
the second the first time was the dot com bubble
(02:20):
thing that we went through at the end of the
last decade. The people that were around certainly remember. The
bottom line right now is that so many stocks are
at all time highs and you still have people rushing
in the door with money saying, well, my friend tried
to get me to buy this last year. I did,
and his portfolio is up twelve percent. I'm missing out.
So emotion causes somebody to bust the door down and
(02:41):
throw their money into something that's at its all time
high price. And I tell people, look, you don't shop
that way. You don't looking for a car and say, no,
price isn't high enough. It's got to go higher. That's
what I'm going to buy it. You wait for things
to go on sale. So I constantly tell people that, yeah,
there could be an impressive market pullback. It could be
next month, it could be next year. We don't know,
but if history is any indication, I certainly think that
(03:04):
it is here. We're going to see a market correction
that's going to hurt now for people who've got money
on the sidelines, that know what stocks they like, and
they've got a predetermined price, if it's twenty thirty percent
or whatever happens to be on what they want to
go after. When the market does go through that natural
correction cycle, which it does all the time JT. They're
in a perfect position to buy these stocks on sale.
(03:25):
But the problem is after they have put the money
in at incredibly high prices, as stocks are dropping, especially
people that are doing the monthly contributions, they panic. Instead
of celebrating the fact that, look, I'm not retiring for
a bunch of years, and now I'm buying a bunch
of stocks I like at a highly discounted price. A
motion kicks the door down again and people that bought
(03:46):
high or selling low, and that's the opposite of what
we should be doing.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Deep breath and sit tight. Yeah. Absolutely, Well, Look, non
essential government employees are on furlough and the essential employees
are still going in. Why are not the FAA and
tower people and the control towers considered essential?
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Well they are, they absolutely are. It's you have about
fifty thousand people to work at the FAA and eleven
thousand using round numbers are non essential or not as essential,
and those eleven thousand have been furloughed for the time being.
None of those are air traffic controllers. But when you
listen to the headlines and you and I know how
(04:27):
this works. The Burbank Airport had to shut down because
they didn't have any air traffic controllers on duty, and
obviously that's the fault of the government shut down, and
as President Trump's fault. Nashville had a shortage of air
traffic controllers. We had delays of two hours. Obviously President
Trump's fault. And of course I raised my hand from
the back of the room, sax Champia. We've had about
(04:49):
nine months, one thousand occurrences where we've had to shut
down an FAA control tower due to a lack of
personnel a thousand, So please don't but we know what
they do. They look for something they can use to
kind of push there whatever. Right, But the bottom line
is we've had this happen a thousand times in the
last nine months. There's the shortage of air traffic controllers
(05:11):
and it's period, but it could get worse. And here's
my concern. The people that are working as air traffic
controllers are going to get a partial paycheck next Tuesday,
on the fourteenth, and then no check on the twenty
eighth if this continues. And a lot of these individuals
have secondary jobs that pay them so they can take
sick leave now and go work at whatever and make
(05:32):
money to pay their bills, and I think that's what
a lot of these individuals are looking at doing. So
hopefully this is going to get resolved soon, because we're
a month and a half away from the busiest travel
week of the year and Thanksgiving. Last thing in the
world you want to have is this mess then, So
I suspect before then we'll get it resolved. But yeah, please, yeah,
the FA we don't have enough air traffic controllers as
(05:53):
it is. When we start having people call in sick,
we're already straining and already strained system and it's only
going to get.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
Worse, all right, Jay, thank you for the update. Very good.
I appreciate you.
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