Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, yesterday Jerome Powell said, nah, I think we'll sit
real tight here. Here's some of the numbers that had
considered when he decided to just leave it alone.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Total PCE prices rose two point five percent over the
twelve months ending in June, and that excluding the volatile
food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose two point
seven percent. These readings are a little changed from the
beginning of the year, although the underlying composition of price
changes has shifted.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
Okay, let me just translate that for you. As a
matter of fact, let me get Roy O'Neil here. He's
smarter than I am, and our correspond have been following this.
So the CPI went up, Consumer Price Index, good news there,
and GDP the gross domestic product numbers looking good. On
the rise tariffs another reason, he says, no, Look, we're
doing good there too, So why would they change the
(00:45):
rates at this point? The economy is looking pretty good?
Speaker 3 (00:48):
Well, right, President Trump wants rates lower it He thinks
that Chairman Powell and the rest of the board at
the Federal Reserve acting too slowly, just like they did
when we saw the spike in inflation out of the pandemic.
Under the Biden administration, they were too slow to raise
rates back then to try to stop inflation. The President says,
they're too slow to lower rates now to really boost
(01:09):
the economy. So the FED chair and the group decided
to keep things as they are, saying at the press
conference that followed the announcement that they're a little worried
about tariffs and what they could do to prices. Remember,
the Fed has to do two things. They have what's
called a dual mandate. They have to maximize employment, and
they have to keep inflation below at or below two percent.
(01:29):
We're not quite there on that inflation number yet, and
they're concerned that if you add tariffs into the mix
that could be inflationary.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
Well it also you drop the rates. It'd be great
for all of us, right, but you know, does feed
that little inflation balloon a little bit over there? With
everything kind of steady, you know, why rock the boat.
Here's Donald Trump responding to a question about whether lowering
the rates would raise inflation.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
Listen, well, if.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
That happens and we just raised them, what you do
is you lower them and let's see if there's inflation.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
We're keeping the rates high and it's hurting people from
buying houses.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Okay, the housing industry is something we're going to talk
about here in just a second. But you know, if
Donald Trump is also said to all of us, hey, look,
don't worry about the terrorists. It's going to be fine,
and re screaming, Oh, it's going to ruin everything. The
market's going to crash. We're all going to burn. I
don't be able to buy cereal for my kids. People
will die, you know, and then all of a sudden
it say, oh, okay, not so bad. I wonder you know,
(02:20):
I'm just looking at Trump's you know, recent history. If
the FED did lower rates, would it be negative on inflation?
Would it actually happen? I'm thinking Trump's got some kind
of crystal ball when it comes to the economy. Yeah,
I know, and you watch it won't so.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
But well yeah. The problem though, that the FED has
seen in the past is that it's hard to unring
that bell, like the President says, oh, just put that
on back and forth and we'll It's tougher to get
inflation back under control when you haven't got it under
control the first time, you know, because we're really on
the edge of having it under control, and if you're
to unleash things again again, raising the rates would take
(02:57):
longer to bring that inflation back down. Because I'm trying
to find a good analogy, but it's just harder to
do it the second time around.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
No, I understand, And I mean I've heard that before too,
you know, once the two phases out of the tube. Yeah, yeah,
there you go. We shouldn't have done that. But I
think there's a caveat to all this. You should end
that statement with unless Donald Trump's the president, you know.
Speaker 3 (03:20):
Because also but look, but we're also talking maybe a
three month difference, and so in the grand scheme, you know,
because the Fed still hopes to lower rates before the
end of the year, they've got three more meetings. They
might even do two rate cuts of a quarter point each.
So you know, whether or not they're three months or
six months off in the grand scheme of things may
not matter too much. And by the way, President Trump
(03:41):
loves having Chairman Powell as someone to as a foil, right, sure,
I mean, if he actually did what he said, that
would take the fun out of everything.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
And let's talk about this. You know, the next serious
consideration to do this is September, and guess what. Right,
then we're rolling towards the holidays, and all of a sudden,
maybe in October, as Black Friday comes up in November, oh,
they lower the rates again for a second time. Thank you,
thank you, mister president. You finally got to them, just
in time for me to spend some money in the
holidays and everybody to.
Speaker 3 (04:12):
Credit Mary Christ and the credit card interest rate comes
down just in time. There you go.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
So all right, let's talk about the housing market quickly.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
Here.
Speaker 1 (04:19):
This possible decline in birth rates could be having an
effect on the housing market. Everybody seems to just you know,
young people, now, we're just going to get a dog.
We're backing off having kids.
Speaker 3 (04:30):
Well right, and look sometimes the dog can be more
expensive than a kid. But yeah, because the cost of
keeping a roof over your head, either owning or renting,
has never been higher, we're seeing a pretty sharp fall
in the birth rate, hitting the lowest point ever in
the US. But we're all if you look at a map,
the birth rate is falling the fastest in the places
where the housing prices are going up the fastest. And
(04:53):
people are saying, look, I can't afford to put another
seat at the table, because all the money is going
to rent or the more. And then add to that
the cost of childcare as well. A lot of couples
are just saying we can't afford another kid right now,
and it's the cost of housing maybe a big part
of that.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
You know. I thought that back when Judy and I
decided to have children and wanted kids going in and
you know, the thought and discussion actually did come up,
I don't know if we can afford them right now.
And in somebody much wiser than me and had more
experience with this and had kids, said if you wait
until you can afford kids, you'll never have them.
Speaker 3 (05:26):
Yeah, there you go.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Jump in. You'll make it work, all Roy, Thank you, buddy.
I appreciate you.
Well, yesterday Jerome Powell said, nah, I think we'll sit
real tight here. Here's some of the numbers that had
considered when he decided to just leave it alone.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Total PCE prices rose two point five percent over the
twelve months ending in June, and that excluding the volatile
food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose two point
seven percent. These readings are a little changed from the
beginning of the year, although the underlying composition of price
changes has shifted.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
Okay, let me just translate that for you. As a
matter of fact, let me get Roy O'Neil here. He's
smarter than I am, and our correspond have been following this.
So the CPI went up, Consumer Price Index, good news there,
and GDP the gross domestic product numbers looking good. On
the rise tariffs another reason, he says, no, Look, we're
doing good there too, So why would they change the
(00:45):
rates at this point? The economy is looking pretty good?
Speaker 3 (00:48):
Well, right, President Trump wants rates lower it He thinks
that Chairman Powell and the rest of the board at
the Federal Reserve acting too slowly, just like they did
when we saw the spike in inflation out of the pandemic.
Under the Biden administration, they were too slow to raise
rates back then to try to stop inflation. The President says,
they're too slow to lower rates now to really boost
(01:09):
the economy. So the FED chair and the group decided
to keep things as they are, saying at the press
conference that followed the announcement that they're a little worried
about tariffs and what they could do to prices. Remember,
the Fed has to do two things. They have what's
called a dual mandate. They have to maximize employment, and
they have to keep inflation below at or below two percent.
(01:29):
We're not quite there on that inflation number yet, and
they're concerned that if you add tariffs into the mix
that could be inflationary.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
Well it also you drop the rates. It'd be great
for all of us, right, but you know, does feed
that little inflation balloon a little bit over there? With
everything kind of steady, you know, why rock the boat.
Here's Donald Trump responding to a question about whether lowering
the rates would raise inflation.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
Listen, well, if.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
That happens and we just raised them, what you do
is you lower them and let's see if there's inflation.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
We're keeping the rates high and it's hurting people from
buying houses.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Okay, the housing industry is something we're going to talk
about here in just a second. But you know, if
Donald Trump is also said to all of us, hey, look,
don't worry about the terrorists. It's going to be fine,
and re screaming, Oh, it's going to ruin everything. The
market's going to crash. We're all going to burn. I
don't be able to buy cereal for my kids. People
will die, you know, and then all of a sudden
it say, oh, okay, not so bad. I wonder you know,
(02:20):
I'm just looking at Trump's you know, recent history. If
the FED did lower rates, would it be negative on inflation?
Would it actually happen? I'm thinking Trump's got some kind
of crystal ball when it comes to the economy. Yeah,
I know, and you watch it won't so.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
But well yeah. The problem though, that the FED has
seen in the past is that it's hard to unring
that bell, like the President says, oh, just put that
on back and forth and we'll It's tougher to get
inflation back under control when you haven't got it under
control the first time, you know, because we're really on
the edge of having it under control, and if you're
to unleash things again again, raising the rates would take
(02:57):
longer to bring that inflation back down. Because I'm trying
to find a good analogy, but it's just harder to
do it the second time around.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
No, I understand, And I mean I've heard that before too,
you know, once the two phases out of the tube. Yeah, yeah,
there you go. We shouldn't have done that. But I
think there's a caveat to all this. You should end
that statement with unless Donald Trump's the president, you know.
Speaker 3 (03:20):
Because also but look, but we're also talking maybe a
three month difference, and so in the grand scheme, you know,
because the Fed still hopes to lower rates before the
end of the year, they've got three more meetings. They
might even do two rate cuts of a quarter point each.
So you know, whether or not they're three months or
six months off in the grand scheme of things may
not matter too much. And by the way, President Trump
(03:41):
loves having Chairman Powell as someone to as a foil, right, sure,
I mean, if he actually did what he said, that
would take the fun out of everything.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
And let's talk about this. You know, the next serious
consideration to do this is September, and guess what. Right,
then we're rolling towards the holidays, and all of a sudden,
maybe in October, as Black Friday comes up in November, oh,
they lower the rates again for a second time. Thank you,
thank you, mister president. You finally got to them, just
in time for me to spend some money in the
holidays and everybody to.
Speaker 3 (04:12):
Credit Mary Christ and the credit card interest rate comes
down just in time. There you go.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
So all right, let's talk about the housing market quickly.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
Here.
Speaker 1 (04:19):
This possible decline in birth rates could be having an
effect on the housing market. Everybody seems to just you know,
young people, now, we're just going to get a dog.
We're backing off having kids.
Speaker 3 (04:30):
Well right, and look sometimes the dog can be more
expensive than a kid. But yeah, because the cost of
keeping a roof over your head, either owning or renting,
has never been higher, we're seeing a pretty sharp fall
in the birth rate, hitting the lowest point ever in
the US. But we're all if you look at a map,
the birth rate is falling the fastest in the places
where the housing prices are going up the fastest. And
(04:53):
people are saying, look, I can't afford to put another
seat at the table, because all the money is going
to rent or the more. And then add to that
the cost of childcare as well. A lot of couples
are just saying we can't afford another kid right now,
and it's the cost of housing maybe a big part
of that.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
You know. I thought that back when Judy and I
decided to have children and wanted kids going in and
you know, the thought and discussion actually did come up,
I don't know if we can afford them right now.
And in somebody much wiser than me and had more
experience with this and had kids, said if you wait
until you can afford kids, you'll never have them.
Speaker 3 (05:26):
Yeah, there you go.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Jump in. You'll make it work, all Roy, Thank you, buddy.
I appreciate you.
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