Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Joining snid to talk a little bit more about some
global activity that's making me a little nervous. Tim Phillips's
Nest Points Director of Government Affairs, and he's also a
global strategist. And Tim, this whole thing with the president's
ours and the relationship with Syria.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
What are we doing? Is this a Barack.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Obama moved to ship of palat to cash and leave
it on the tarmac to get Iran to like us.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Where are we going with this? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (00:26):
I think it's a calculated gamble by President Trump with
a sage regime. The old regine that controlled Syria fell
a few months ago. They were Iran's key ally ally
on the northern border of Israel. So I think Trump
and his people say, hey, wait, our main enemy there
is Iran. We've got a chance to further weaken them.
(00:48):
Let's see if we can build a relationship with the
new guy in Syria. But and JT you mentioned it,
there's a rest there because he has Al Kaida terrorist
connections that's acknowledged by him and others in the region.
So it's a calculated gamble that the President phills could
and hand security for the United States and Israel on
that northern border of Israel there, But you know there
(01:11):
is risk involved.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
I don't trust it.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
I just I mean putin Kim Jong un Iran, of course,
I mean, I just you know, I said it a
minute ago. You know, keep your friends closer, your enemies closer.
Here is this also? Is this also a gamble for
the regime in Syria to warm up to the United
States with Iran right there in their back pocket.
Speaker 3 (01:35):
It is the Arab street gets whipped up by things
like that. But I'll tell you this about Syria. I've
been in that region a lot. The average person in
Syria is desperately poor. No food, our little food, no
real security. They I think could be willing for what.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
Could be a big change.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
There's also the Sunni Shia Muslim split jt that play here.
You know, Iran is the main backers of the new
guy in Syria are Soni, the Immordis, the Saudis, the Turks.
So's there's that age old battle going in the Islamic community.
But the key thing though, Israel's goal on Heights, which
they won in the war against Syria when Syria attacked
(02:17):
them first decades ago. The Syrians won it back. The
Israelis are not going to give it back, and they
should not give it back. In the United States is
recognized as Israeli territory, so that is going to be
a consistent sticking block. But think of this as a
as a short term play to see if we can
pull Syria into a more western orient or at least
(02:39):
middle of the road orbit. If they don't act properly,
you slap the economic sanctions right back on them and
push them back out into the wilderness where they would
belong if they if they began doing terrorism again. But
it's a calculator gamble by the Trump folks, and I
think it's a reasonable one that could enhance security for
Israel on its northern border and could pull a key
(03:03):
block out of the Iranian alliance in the Middle East.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
All Right, well, look, I never underestimate the Great negotiator.
But it was what six months ago in December when
Donald Trump, right, you know, said Siria is a mess,
but it's not our friend and the United States should
have nothing to do with it.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
So, yeah, what's changed.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
I think with President Trump, it's important to take him seriously,
but not to take every single statement literally. And sometimes
he'll say things for a negotiating posture, and sometimes they
go way out there. It was reasonable to say what
he said in December, because this guy is a terrorist.
The new leader of zero Or certainly was with al
(03:47):
Qaeda and some of the Taliban link, no question about that.
I think Trump's other theory of foreign policy is if
someone's on the bad list, give them an avid if
they change their behavior to get in a better place,
because if they see no avenue to redemption, then they're
(04:07):
only going to get worse. I think that's his operating
premise in general. I think that's the idea behind listening
to the Saudis and the Amoradis and say, okay, we'll
give a short term pause in the sanctions and see
what happens. I do think that's the premise here. And
if you could bring at least that northern border of Israel,
(04:27):
you know where Syria is, into a place where they're
neutral in the war, you know, in the constant struggle
between Iran, which wants to take over in the least
and Israel that just wants his freedom for goodness sakes
and to be protected, it's worth a near term gamble.
And I do I think the president here is it's
(04:48):
worth this near term gamble, and we can always shift
back pound the sanctions back if they turn out to
be you know, going back to the terrorism things that
they in the last year. So I think that's the
premise here, but gosh, watch them closely. In the meantime, though,
the main land quarter for Iran to resupply Hesblah has
(05:11):
been cut off.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
You know.
Speaker 3 (05:12):
The Assad regime in Syria allowed that, and that's how
Hesbla got those missiles and weapons, so many of them
was that land quarter. Thank goodness, that's cut off. Now
these Syrian guys have clearly done that. Iran's got big
trouble now resupplying Hesblah in Lebanon. That is a good
near term We'll see if it continues. But I'm telling you, JT,
(05:32):
that's a big move that's happened.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
I'm telling you northern border.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
You know, if you could look at the scorecard in
the history of the United States on where we stand
on attempts like this before.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
Look go back to World War Two.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
We had Germany and Japan, I mean, the height of
our battle and now we love these nations all right,
But you look at Iran, where We've tried to warm
up before and it goes disastrously wrong. So where do
we stand on the old scorecard with attempts like this globally, Well.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
We've had some successes. I would count Japan, certainly Japan
and Germany as two successes. And even Vietnam now jt
if you think about it, we have a pretty good
relationship with them. They're a de facto more of an
ally against China than they are an enemy at this point.
So even you know, even in Midnam, we've had some
(06:22):
success in bringing them into a closer relationship and being
against the Chinese, who are an ancient his enemy of
the Chinese. But in the Middle East, where things shift
so often and where and you know this, but the
lines for all these countries are artificial lines. They were
drawn for the most part after World War Two, in
some cases after World War One, so there are artificial lines.
(06:45):
They cut tribes and ethnic groups and other things arbitrarily
across geographic lines. So that makes the Middle East even
more difficult. But in the near term, I do think
this is a reasonable gamble by President Trump and in
our United States that could enhance security for Israel on
its northern border, and hopefully permanently or at least for
(07:08):
a long time, keep a strategically central country geographically Syria,
out of the Iranian orbit, which it's out right now, JT.
And that's a good thing.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
Well, I hope it goes well.
Speaker 1 (07:20):
I mean, this is a This is certainly as you said,
Tim a gambled Tim phillips a, nest Point Director of
Government Affairs and Global Strategies.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
Thank you, Tim, enjoyed it, you bet.
Speaker 3 (07:28):
JT.
Joining snid to talk a little bit more about some
global activity that's making me a little nervous. Tim Phillips's
Nest Points Director of Government Affairs, and he's also a
global strategist. And Tim, this whole thing with the president's
ours and the relationship with Syria.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
What are we doing? Is this a Barack.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Obama moved to ship of palat to cash and leave
it on the tarmac to get Iran to like us.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Where are we going with this? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (00:26):
I think it's a calculated gamble by President Trump with
a sage regime. The old regine that controlled Syria fell
a few months ago. They were Iran's key ally ally
on the northern border of Israel. So I think Trump
and his people say, hey, wait, our main enemy there
is Iran. We've got a chance to further weaken them.
(00:48):
Let's see if we can build a relationship with the
new guy in Syria. But and JT you mentioned it,
there's a rest there because he has Al Kaida terrorist
connections that's acknowledged by him and others in the region.
So it's a calculated gamble that the President phills could
and hand security for the United States and Israel on
that northern border of Israel there, But you know there
(01:11):
is risk involved.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
I don't trust it.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
I just I mean putin Kim Jong un Iran, of course,
I mean, I just you know, I said it a
minute ago. You know, keep your friends closer, your enemies closer.
Here is this also? Is this also a gamble for
the regime in Syria to warm up to the United
States with Iran right there in their back pocket.
Speaker 3 (01:35):
It is the Arab street gets whipped up by things
like that. But I'll tell you this about Syria. I've
been in that region a lot. The average person in
Syria is desperately poor. No food, our little food, no
real security. They I think could be willing for what.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
Could be a big change.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
There's also the Sunni Shia Muslim split jt that play here.
You know, Iran is the main backers of the new
guy in Syria are Soni, the Immordis, the Saudis, the Turks.
So's there's that age old battle going in the Islamic community.
But the key thing though, Israel's goal on Heights, which
they won in the war against Syria when Syria attacked
(02:17):
them first decades ago. The Syrians won it back. The
Israelis are not going to give it back, and they
should not give it back. In the United States is
recognized as Israeli territory, so that is going to be
a consistent sticking block. But think of this as a
as a short term play to see if we can
pull Syria into a more western orient or at least
(02:39):
middle of the road orbit. If they don't act properly,
you slap the economic sanctions right back on them and
push them back out into the wilderness where they would
belong if they if they began doing terrorism again. But
it's a calculator gamble by the Trump folks, and I
think it's a reasonable one that could enhance security for
Israel on its northern border and could pull a key
(03:03):
block out of the Iranian alliance in the Middle East.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
All Right, well, look, I never underestimate the Great negotiator.
But it was what six months ago in December when
Donald Trump, right, you know, said Siria is a mess,
but it's not our friend and the United States should
have nothing to do with it.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
So, yeah, what's changed.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
I think with President Trump, it's important to take him seriously,
but not to take every single statement literally. And sometimes
he'll say things for a negotiating posture, and sometimes they
go way out there. It was reasonable to say what
he said in December, because this guy is a terrorist.
The new leader of zero Or certainly was with al
(03:47):
Qaeda and some of the Taliban link, no question about that.
I think Trump's other theory of foreign policy is if
someone's on the bad list, give them an avid if
they change their behavior to get in a better place,
because if they see no avenue to redemption, then they're
(04:07):
only going to get worse. I think that's his operating
premise in general. I think that's the idea behind listening
to the Saudis and the Amoradis and say, okay, we'll
give a short term pause in the sanctions and see
what happens. I do think that's the premise here. And
if you could bring at least that northern border of Israel,
(04:27):
you know where Syria is, into a place where they're
neutral in the war, you know, in the constant struggle
between Iran, which wants to take over in the least
and Israel that just wants his freedom for goodness sakes
and to be protected, it's worth a near term gamble.
And I do I think the president here is it's
(04:48):
worth this near term gamble, and we can always shift
back pound the sanctions back if they turn out to
be you know, going back to the terrorism things that
they in the last year. So I think that's the
premise here, but gosh, watch them closely. In the meantime, though,
the main land quarter for Iran to resupply Hesblah has
(05:11):
been cut off.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
You know.
Speaker 3 (05:12):
The Assad regime in Syria allowed that, and that's how
Hesbla got those missiles and weapons, so many of them
was that land quarter. Thank goodness, that's cut off. Now
these Syrian guys have clearly done that. Iran's got big
trouble now resupplying Hesblah in Lebanon. That is a good
near term We'll see if it continues. But I'm telling you, JT,
(05:32):
that's a big move that's happened.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
I'm telling you northern border.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
You know, if you could look at the scorecard in
the history of the United States on where we stand
on attempts like this before.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
Look go back to World War Two.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
We had Germany and Japan, I mean, the height of
our battle and now we love these nations all right,
But you look at Iran, where We've tried to warm
up before and it goes disastrously wrong. So where do
we stand on the old scorecard with attempts like this globally, Well.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
We've had some successes. I would count Japan, certainly Japan
and Germany as two successes. And even Vietnam now jt
if you think about it, we have a pretty good
relationship with them. They're a de facto more of an
ally against China than they are an enemy at this point.
So even you know, even in Midnam, we've had some
(06:22):
success in bringing them into a closer relationship and being
against the Chinese, who are an ancient his enemy of
the Chinese. But in the Middle East, where things shift
so often and where and you know this, but the
lines for all these countries are artificial lines. They were
drawn for the most part after World War Two, in
some cases after World War One, so there are artificial lines.
(06:45):
They cut tribes and ethnic groups and other things arbitrarily
across geographic lines. So that makes the Middle East even
more difficult. But in the near term, I do think
this is a reasonable gamble by President Trump and in
our United States that could enhance security for Israel on
its northern border, and hopefully permanently or at least for
(07:08):
a long time, keep a strategically central country geographically Syria,
out of the Iranian orbit, which it's out right now, JT.
And that's a good thing.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
Well, I hope it goes well.
Speaker 1 (07:20):
I mean, this is a This is certainly as you said,
Tim a gambled Tim phillips a, nest Point Director of
Government Affairs and Global Strategies.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
Thank you, Tim, enjoyed it, you bet.
Speaker 3 (07:28):
JT.
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