Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
A thirty two fifty five cacity talk station. Hitting the ground.
A little bit later on in with Daniel Davis. It's
that time of the week we get the Daniel Davis
deep dive from the retired lieutenant colonel. Military logistics and
war is what we usually talk about, and oh my gosh,
look on the agenda today, ah war generally speaking. Welcome
back Daniel Davis, my friend. I love having you on
the show.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Always a pleasure to be here. Brian, thanks for having
me back.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
And an advanced heads up. We may lose the video
feed just Strecker is being covered by Danny and I
know we're seeing each other now on video, but apparently
we're having a technical difficulty. So if I lose you,
Danny city call you right back. To the extent our
conversation isn't over. I just wanted to warn you in
case it happens without further ado. The nature of warfare,
as illustrated by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, has
(00:45):
changed dramatically. Drones, I mean, on full display and revealing
a real problem. As I saw in quite a few articles.
Used to be the front line was the real bad
place to be. That's where all the bombs were dropping.
That's where all the activity happen. Now with drone warfare,
these drones are going way into Ukraine. They're disrupting supply chains.
(01:06):
They're hitting targets that no one ever thought with a
disruption of supply chains with drones, they got to find
alternative routes to try to get supplies to the front line.
I mean, this is devolving, It's getting even worse and worse,
and drones really are the defining factor in this war.
I think am i off base on that, Daniel Davis?
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Yeah, now they have been for a long time, but
now as you say that, they are evolving into different categories.
I mean we have issues of not just the first
person drone, where that's coming after the vehicle that you're in,
or sometimes even though well you know a personal deal
that this drone is coming after you, and they have
devolved down to that. But now then they've expanded and
(01:47):
there was some in the early stages even to the
depth of the country. Usually it was missile fire, but
then they started getting a few of the drones mixed in.
Well about a year ago, the Russians started expanding their
production capacity and then they started fired more and more
of these deeper into the the deep part of Ukraine,
especially where there were home depots where the ammunition comes in,
(02:10):
where the stuff comes in from NATO, electricity generation production,
oil facilities, et cetera. Ukraine, by the way, is also
doing the same thing. They're expanding their capability into Russia,
but at a slower quantity. And sometimes you have quality
and quantity. You got to have them both, and if
you don't have both, the side that does is going
(02:30):
to prevail. And that's what's going on right here. Is
that Now then there's even what's called the near front,
and then the tactical rear, the operational rear, and then
the deep rear of the country itself, and literally every
aspect now has its categories of drones and units focused
on just hitting their sector. So literally no place is safe.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
As you say, well, and considering the status of the war,
and we needn't go over all the downside and the
problems that Ukraine is struggling with right now, manpower, resources, munitions,
et cetera. This has got to be extraordinarily demoralizing. With
drones literally being taught being the opportunity and the ability
and the current use of drones literally anywhere in the country.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Well, it is, and you know, that's one of the
reasons why I keep highlighting periodically that you know, there's
a separate issue for Ukraine side apart from just the
battle lines and the balance of forces between the two
sides and you know, and what happens on the ground,
but the psychology and the potential for PTSD just has
a slightly new fear unlocked because in addition to all
(03:37):
the things that fighting normally causes inside of people, now
then you have this additional fear of always looking at
the sky, being afraid to get out of the ground
for anything, and that is just deepening on all I'm
going to be blunting the emotional trauma, especially on the
Ukraine side, and the courses applies to the Russian side too,
But because they don't have all of the different levels,
(03:58):
the Ukraine side doesn't of being able to fire deep
into the Russian side at all the different sections, it
doesn't hit the Russians as hard, and of course they
have more people, so this is a disproportionately negative for
the Ukraine side.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Well, and I got to imagine any the targets that
Ukraine might want to hit within Russia, it's a lot
bigger country to have to deal with than the find
more well smaller finite space that is Ukraine. I mean,
you don't have an getting way into Russia. I'm sure
there's military targets, depots, supply posts all the way into
Russia in various locations. They just don't have the capacity
(04:32):
to reach all of them on the swarm level that
Russia is within Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
And if you even if you had the same land
mass between the two sides, Russia's numbers are just a
whole lot bigger and Ukraine simply can't match those. Because
while Russia has a fairly robust air defense system and
they shoot down a significantly larger portion of anything coming
in from the Ukraine side, there's less of it. They
(04:58):
can get a higher percentage of it. It means that
there's smaller amounts getting through, as you say, over a
much massive, larger geographical area, so that you can't focus
and concentrate the fire like the Russians are able to
at all the different levels. I mean, honestly, it's it's
math and it's production capacity, and that's what a war
of attrition is, and that's what Russia is waging and
(05:19):
frankly winning at this point.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
Well since our last conversation last week, Daniel Davis, is
there any aspect of Russia Ukraine negotiations, settlement any has
anything changed at all? Are we still at the status
quo that we found ourselves in for so long?
Speaker 2 (05:33):
We are still at the disconnected from reality level on
our side. And there was a conference in Kiev, I
believe no, I'm sorry it was Finland over the weekend
on Saturday, where you had the headliner of David Petraeus.
And he went on and he was asked questions by
a lot of people, and he is still with the
same thing. He said, Actually, I'm not making this up.
(05:54):
He started off by saying his remarks that will I'm
actually feeling better about things for Ukraine that I have
in quite a while. And then he went out and
light about out a bunch of reasons which were totally
divorced from reality. It's like not even on the same planet.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
And that's where we hit him. Danny's going to get
him on speed dial and we'll see if we can't
continue the balance of this conversation on telephone. Sadly, again,
our zoom feed that we've been using failed us at
this moment in time, so he's going to be trying
to get him back on we get the follow up
of those comments. I also wanted to ask him about
you an ambassador Mike Waltz talking about the defending every
(06:29):
engine of NATO territory after Russian jets flew into Estonia.
If we can get that one in so without further ado,
there's Daniel Davis on the phone. Daniel, you were summing
up the comments that were devoid of reality. Let's finish
that thought before I ask you a question about NATO
territory and Russian in Russian jet intrusions.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Yeah, see they're still thinking, Look, all we need is
some more support. We just need a little bit more time,
We need a little bit more ammunition, and then we
can start bleeding Russian drop. Kind of the gist of it,
and it's like so divorced from what's actually happening on
the ground and the balance of forces which continues to
deteriorate on the Ukraine side everywhere, from desertions going up
(07:11):
five to seven hundred per day by some reports. Of course,
the casualty ratios. You can't force mobilize enough people to
offset the losses, whereas according to the Ukrainian side information,
Russia is still able to produce around thirty one thousand
troops new troops per month, which offsets and even the
(07:32):
Institute for the Study Wars, we can acknowledge that if
they don't have the ability on the Ukraine side to
prevent Russia from producing more troops and now than their
tactics on the Russian side are prioritizing securing their troops
so they don't have as many casualties, so that means
they are growing while the Ukraine side is shrinking. And
(07:52):
in that environment you have General Petrea saying I feel
better about Ukraine. It just delies any kind of logic.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
I concur with you that assessment and real briefly, I
just note that I read an article earlier in the
week that Cuba is supplying supplying troops to the Russians
as well. We had the North Koreans doing some work
for him, and now I guess the Cubans are supplying men.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
That's that's new one on.
Speaker 1 (08:15):
Yeah, they are.
Speaker 2 (08:16):
Wouldn't put I wouldn't put a lot of concern in
that though the mighty Cuban military. I mean, I know
that we have to worry about the invasion, so yeah,
someone need to keep on though.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
Right why not? Well, anyway, real quick here, I saw
the other day you and a messader Mike Waltzho's warning yesterday.
I believe it was us and the Allies would defend
every inch and his words of natotarry this after Russian
fighter jets violated Estonian airspace. Russia has been kind of
liberal with violating internet or our our airspace of late.
Is this Are they really tempting us with World War
(08:48):
three here? Or are they just testing us and seeing
how we react? Where's this going?
Speaker 2 (08:53):
Yeah, that's a troubling development. I don't mind telling you.
That's been my fear from day one. Is it something
either a bad decision, a miscalculation and error, a mistake,
something would cause this war to bleed beyond the borders
of Ukraine, which could suck us all into an absolute
unwinnable war which could alto easily go nuclear. And the
(09:13):
fact that Russia is now feeling more confident to test
into the air space a little bit. Now, Look, a
lot of this happened during the Cold War, so by
itself that's not a big issue. We've got planes up there.
They do too, But the fact that they're willing to
do a little bit more now, I think, is to
send a message to the West saying, hey, don't f
with this, because you know, we have the capacity that
(09:35):
you don't have, and so there'd be more cocky a
little bit, and you get cocky, and then when you
get on our side, you know, people go, oh yeah,
well I'll show you. That's where you get stupid, and
you have the possibility of having a war that nobody
actually wants, but that we could stumble right into.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
Hmm okay, well keep that in mind, folks. Yeah, Francis
Gary Powers right, We used to do that during the
Cold War. Daniel Davis Deep Dive find his podcast online.
You'd be glad you did and join us every Tuesday
at eight thirty for another wonderful edition and insightful it
always is. Daniel Davis. God bless you, sir, and thanks
for spending time with my listeners to me every week.
(10:14):
Always my pleasure.
Speaker 2 (10:15):
Bright to see you next week.
Speaker 1 (10:16):
Take care. He forty two right now fifty five KR.
See the talk station
A thirty two fifty five cacity talk station. Hitting the ground.
A little bit later on in with Daniel Davis. It's
that time of the week we get the Daniel Davis
deep dive from the retired lieutenant colonel. Military logistics and
war is what we usually talk about, and oh my gosh,
look on the agenda today, ah war generally speaking. Welcome
back Daniel Davis, my friend. I love having you on
the show.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Always a pleasure to be here. Brian, thanks for having
me back.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
And an advanced heads up. We may lose the video
feed just Strecker is being covered by Danny and I
know we're seeing each other now on video, but apparently
we're having a technical difficulty. So if I lose you,
Danny city call you right back. To the extent our
conversation isn't over. I just wanted to warn you in
case it happens without further ado. The nature of warfare,
as illustrated by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, has
(00:45):
changed dramatically. Drones, I mean, on full display and revealing
a real problem. As I saw in quite a few articles.
Used to be the front line was the real bad
place to be. That's where all the bombs were dropping.
That's where all the activity happen. Now with drone warfare,
these drones are going way into Ukraine. They're disrupting supply chains.
(01:06):
They're hitting targets that no one ever thought with a
disruption of supply chains with drones, they got to find
alternative routes to try to get supplies to the front line.
I mean, this is devolving, It's getting even worse and worse,
and drones really are the defining factor in this war.
I think am i off base on that, Daniel Davis?
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Yeah, now they have been for a long time, but
now as you say that, they are evolving into different categories.
I mean we have issues of not just the first
person drone, where that's coming after the vehicle that you're in,
or sometimes even though well you know a personal deal
that this drone is coming after you, and they have
devolved down to that. But now then they've expanded and
(01:47):
there was some in the early stages even to the
depth of the country. Usually it was missile fire, but
then they started getting a few of the drones mixed in.
Well about a year ago, the Russians started expanding their
production capacity and then they started fired more and more
of these deeper into the the deep part of Ukraine,
especially where there were home depots where the ammunition comes in,
(02:10):
where the stuff comes in from NATO, electricity generation production,
oil facilities, et cetera. Ukraine, by the way, is also
doing the same thing. They're expanding their capability into Russia,
but at a slower quantity. And sometimes you have quality
and quantity. You got to have them both, and if
you don't have both, the side that does is going
(02:30):
to prevail. And that's what's going on right here. Is
that Now then there's even what's called the near front,
and then the tactical rear, the operational rear, and then
the deep rear of the country itself, and literally every
aspect now has its categories of drones and units focused
on just hitting their sector. So literally no place is safe.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
As you say, well, and considering the status of the war,
and we needn't go over all the downside and the
problems that Ukraine is struggling with right now, manpower, resources, munitions,
et cetera. This has got to be extraordinarily demoralizing. With
drones literally being taught being the opportunity and the ability
and the current use of drones literally anywhere in the country.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Well, it is, and you know, that's one of the
reasons why I keep highlighting periodically that you know, there's
a separate issue for Ukraine side apart from just the
battle lines and the balance of forces between the two
sides and you know, and what happens on the ground,
but the psychology and the potential for PTSD just has
a slightly new fear unlocked because in addition to all
(03:37):
the things that fighting normally causes inside of people, now
then you have this additional fear of always looking at
the sky, being afraid to get out of the ground
for anything, and that is just deepening on all I'm
going to be blunting the emotional trauma, especially on the
Ukraine side, and the courses applies to the Russian side too,
But because they don't have all of the different levels,
(03:58):
the Ukraine side doesn't of being able to fire deep
into the Russian side at all the different sections, it
doesn't hit the Russians as hard, and of course they
have more people, so this is a disproportionately negative for
the Ukraine side.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Well, and I got to imagine any the targets that
Ukraine might want to hit within Russia, it's a lot
bigger country to have to deal with than the find
more well smaller finite space that is Ukraine. I mean,
you don't have an getting way into Russia. I'm sure
there's military targets, depots, supply posts all the way into
Russia in various locations. They just don't have the capacity
(04:32):
to reach all of them on the swarm level that
Russia is within Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
And if you even if you had the same land
mass between the two sides, Russia's numbers are just a
whole lot bigger and Ukraine simply can't match those. Because
while Russia has a fairly robust air defense system and
they shoot down a significantly larger portion of anything coming
in from the Ukraine side, there's less of it. They
(04:58):
can get a higher percentage of it. It means that
there's smaller amounts getting through, as you say, over a
much massive, larger geographical area, so that you can't focus
and concentrate the fire like the Russians are able to
at all the different levels. I mean, honestly, it's it's
math and it's production capacity, and that's what a war
of attrition is, and that's what Russia is waging and
(05:19):
frankly winning at this point.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
Well since our last conversation last week, Daniel Davis, is
there any aspect of Russia Ukraine negotiations, settlement any has
anything changed at all? Are we still at the status
quo that we found ourselves in for so long?
Speaker 2 (05:33):
We are still at the disconnected from reality level on
our side. And there was a conference in Kiev, I
believe no, I'm sorry it was Finland over the weekend
on Saturday, where you had the headliner of David Petraeus.
And he went on and he was asked questions by
a lot of people, and he is still with the
same thing. He said, Actually, I'm not making this up.
(05:54):
He started off by saying his remarks that will I'm
actually feeling better about things for Ukraine that I have
in quite a while. And then he went out and
light about out a bunch of reasons which were totally
divorced from reality. It's like not even on the same planet.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
And that's where we hit him. Danny's going to get
him on speed dial and we'll see if we can't
continue the balance of this conversation on telephone. Sadly, again,
our zoom feed that we've been using failed us at
this moment in time, so he's going to be trying
to get him back on we get the follow up
of those comments. I also wanted to ask him about
you an ambassador Mike Waltz talking about the defending every
(06:29):
engine of NATO territory after Russian jets flew into Estonia.
If we can get that one in so without further ado,
there's Daniel Davis on the phone. Daniel, you were summing
up the comments that were devoid of reality. Let's finish
that thought before I ask you a question about NATO
territory and Russian in Russian jet intrusions.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Yeah, see they're still thinking, Look, all we need is
some more support. We just need a little bit more time,
We need a little bit more ammunition, and then we
can start bleeding Russian drop. Kind of the gist of it,
and it's like so divorced from what's actually happening on
the ground and the balance of forces which continues to
deteriorate on the Ukraine side everywhere, from desertions going up
(07:11):
five to seven hundred per day by some reports. Of course,
the casualty ratios. You can't force mobilize enough people to
offset the losses, whereas according to the Ukrainian side information,
Russia is still able to produce around thirty one thousand
troops new troops per month, which offsets and even the
(07:32):
Institute for the Study Wars, we can acknowledge that if
they don't have the ability on the Ukraine side to
prevent Russia from producing more troops and now than their
tactics on the Russian side are prioritizing securing their troops
so they don't have as many casualties, so that means
they are growing while the Ukraine side is shrinking. And
(07:52):
in that environment you have General Petrea saying I feel
better about Ukraine. It just delies any kind of logic.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
I concur with you that assessment and real briefly, I
just note that I read an article earlier in the
week that Cuba is supplying supplying troops to the Russians
as well. We had the North Koreans doing some work
for him, and now I guess the Cubans are supplying men.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
That's that's new one on.
Speaker 1 (08:15):
Yeah, they are.
Speaker 2 (08:16):
Wouldn't put I wouldn't put a lot of concern in
that though the mighty Cuban military. I mean, I know
that we have to worry about the invasion, so yeah,
someone need to keep on though.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
Right why not? Well, anyway, real quick here, I saw
the other day you and a messader Mike Waltzho's warning yesterday.
I believe it was us and the Allies would defend
every inch and his words of natotarry this after Russian
fighter jets violated Estonian airspace. Russia has been kind of
liberal with violating internet or our our airspace of late.
Is this Are they really tempting us with World War
(08:48):
three here? Or are they just testing us and seeing
how we react? Where's this going?
Speaker 2 (08:53):
Yeah, that's a troubling development. I don't mind telling you.
That's been my fear from day one. Is it something
either a bad decision, a miscalculation and error, a mistake,
something would cause this war to bleed beyond the borders
of Ukraine, which could suck us all into an absolute
unwinnable war which could alto easily go nuclear. And the
(09:13):
fact that Russia is now feeling more confident to test
into the air space a little bit. Now, Look, a
lot of this happened during the Cold War, so by
itself that's not a big issue. We've got planes up there.
They do too, But the fact that they're willing to
do a little bit more now, I think, is to
send a message to the West saying, hey, don't f
with this, because you know, we have the capacity that
(09:35):
you don't have, and so there'd be more cocky a
little bit, and you get cocky, and then when you
get on our side, you know, people go, oh yeah,
well I'll show you. That's where you get stupid, and
you have the possibility of having a war that nobody
actually wants, but that we could stumble right into.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
Hmm okay, well keep that in mind, folks. Yeah, Francis
Gary Powers right, We used to do that during the
Cold War. Daniel Davis Deep Dive find his podcast online.
You'd be glad you did and join us every Tuesday
at eight thirty for another wonderful edition and insightful it
always is. Daniel Davis. God bless you, sir, and thanks
for spending time with my listeners to me every week.
(10:14):
Always my pleasure.
Speaker 2 (10:15):
Bright to see you next week.
Speaker 1 (10:16):
Take care. He forty two right now fifty five KR.
See the talk station
Brian Thomas News
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