August 19, 2025 • 9 mins
Brian Thomas is joined by Daniel Davis to take a deep dive into the current state of the Ukraine War.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Height twenty nine, I fifty five karsde talk station. We'll
just go ahead and dispatch trafficking weather and dive right
on into it. It is time for the Daniel Davis
Deep Dive, my friend retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis, offering
his weekly analysis on mostly the wars going onto the world.
Welcome back, Daniel Davis. It's great to have you on.
I understand we caught you off guard. You're traveling right now.
Apologize for that.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Oh no, I'm sorry. We didn't coordinate the schedules better.
But I'm grateful to have a chance to be honest
with you, even if it's just audio today.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
Well, and that's fine. I know you and I are
normally looking at each other, so I am right now
saluting you as I normally do when we see each
other on video. So rest of the show, and you know,
I recommend my listeners again it's Daniel Davis Deep Dive.
Find his podcast always fascinating and interesting and insightful. Okay,
So we had the meeting Trump and and Peutin, and
we had the meeting with Trump and Zelensky, and then
(00:50):
Trump and Plazansky and the European leaders. Nothing ultimately resolved,
no end of the conflict. But what has got me
concerned Daniel Davis and I just wanted to jump right
into this security guarantees that we're willing to provide. Now,
he did not say Trump that we would put boots
on the ground, but he didn't say we wouldn't. He's
previously said something along those lines. But security guarantees are
(01:13):
a sured security assurances from what the European peacekeepers have said,
includes military presence, air defense, armaments, monitoring, a cessation of hostilities.
All this design to act as a you know, a
foil to Vladimir Putin maybe deciding to go back into
Ukraine at some time after some deal is negotiated. I'm sorry,
Daniel Davis. I'm not one that's inclined to want to
(01:34):
have a permanent military presence in any way, shape or form,
in the United States or in the in Ukraine. How
is it that we are expected to provide at significant
expense any one of these components.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
I don't know, Brian.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
That's That's one of the things that just really puzzled me,
is that why we would even be talking about that,
because here to or we have said no, no security
guarantees on the table, and now all of a sudden,
it's on the table now. According to Steve Whitkoff, he
claims that when he went to talk to Foot, the
whimnesday before the Trump meetings happened was that he said
(02:10):
they had relative concurrence conceptually with Russia, which surprised me
by itself that Russia would be willing to contemplate a
security guarantee.
Speaker 3 (02:19):
When they had been against it before. But everything is, like.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
I've talked about, tend the devil's into details and the definitions.
What if when they think security guarantees, what do we
mean when we say security guarantees? And what is Zolensky thing?
Because I promise you all three of those are different.
We're thinking more like consultations. H and and if you know,
if somebody gets attacked, then there'll be considerations, et cetera.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
And Zelensky is thinking.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Article five NATO, everybody's gonna come white for me, right,
And of course he was loved that that would be
fabulous for him if he got that be a major victory.
But nobody, Brian, I'm mean to just tell you categorically, no,
not America, not Germany, not France, the UK Nobody is
going to go fight a war on behalf of Ukraine.
It gets the nuclear armed country. If this is all
(03:09):
the theater, it's fiction. People are just saying whatever they want.
But when it comes down to brass tacks, I'll promise
you nobody will fight for you.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
Right well, And if history is our guide, attacks on
American military forces or is the case, maybe may mean
NATO forces tend to result in attacks against whoever attacked them.
So isn't it like if we have boots on the
ground there, If NATO has boots on the ground in
order to keep this peace, if the Russians were stupid
enough to launch an attack and killed some service members
that are trying to keep the peace there, doesn't it
(03:39):
to facto kick in Article five because of the inevitable
reaction from those who got the attack.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Will it wouldn't inevitably do that because the Article five
has to specify that it's an attack on somebody else,
not because you put troops into harm's way and then
they ended up getting hit, So.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
It wouldn't be clear then.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
But also let me specify the actual article BIB itself
still does not automatically trigger a military response. It only
automatically triggers consultations. And the article the Washington Treaty that
established the Article VIB in nineteen forty nine says that
each country will then have to go to its parliament
(04:18):
or Congress to just not how they're going to react.
So there is a lot of legal room even in
the current Article VIB of NATO, but they'll be even
less willingness to use force. For Ukraine, I just can't
strongly reinforce this. Nobody is going to have their.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
People die and risk a nuclear tactic. It's their country
for Ukraine.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
Right, Okay, And you know that obviously that that Article
five does not eradicate the necessity of Congress to enact
the declaration of war.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
Correct, That is one hundred percent correct. Our constitution still
hells sway good.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
All right, Now, back to Vladimir Putin, if he is
willing to allow for these so called security guarantees, let's
just say, you know, everybody, he's in agreement, it's not
Article five, but at some presence military or other eyes
by European Union countries, in the United States, or some
combination of all of them. If he's willing to accept
that doesn't that suggest that he's not interested in reopening
this conflict down the road.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
That is one hundred percent correct.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
It couldn't be more strongly in agreement there too, and
that was getting reiterated during the Trump Putting meeting, where
he says, look, we're looking to improve security our business
relationships with both the United States and Europe. That's why,
in addition to their military and for policy people that
they brought to that meeting, they brought a lot.
Speaker 3 (05:36):
Of business people. They don't want a war. They want to.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
Get back to normalized relations and to have business going on,
to re establish business contacts. That's what they're looking for.
They also want to get back into the nuclear arms
reduction treaty talks, the last of which will expire in February.
So they're focused on everything besides conquering Europe, which is
a third and it's always been observed, but now Russia
(06:02):
is putting actions behind it.
Speaker 1 (06:04):
Fair enough now in terms of this multi step process
that's currently in place, Putin's gonna meet with Zelensky and
then the three of them puting Trump and Zlannska and
get together to meet at some future date. Considering Russia's
rather hardline position, with the exception of potential concessions on
security agreement. They haven't really waivered though they still want
(06:25):
that Dunnetts a region of the country which they control
seventy six percent of and Ukraine doesn't want to give
it up. But there was some suggestion that Ukraine might
be willing to make some land concessions. I mean, where
do you see this going if you had to read
some tea leaves Daniel Davis.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Yeah, there's no question that you saw. If you saw
that that famous picture from the Old Office with Trump,
that black and white one where Trump's sitting there pointing
to the map with Zelensky.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
In it, I mean, it gets clear you're gonna have
to give It's not even an option, right if you want.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
The United States you have to stay with you. You're
going to give up some plan. The only question is
how much. And here's the thing that you know. It's
good that they have these mixed conversations because that's diplomacy.
It's always you know, difficulty is always time consuming you
longer than you want.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
And it's good that they're talking. So that's a positive thing.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
But everybody needs to understand Russia is still in the
military dominant position, and they don't have to give in
on any of their core demands, and I don't think
they're going to. So there's going to be territory given up,
and it's going to be important to Russia's requirements and
their security guarantees or dividing will simply.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
Keep going, keep going. And some are suggesting, and I
read this in several places Daniel Davis Fory Part Company,
that this negotiation process, there is no ceasefire. Let's not
call it a ceasefire, call it whatever you want, but
this longer term negotiation process is going to continue while
Russia continues to make advances on the lines in Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
That's exactly I actually made that point of battic yesterday
morning on our show before we went before the meeting happened,
that Russia has completely.
Speaker 3 (07:59):
Said, repeatedly that they are willing to.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Negotiate and talk however long it takes, but they will
not stop fighting until there's an agreement. And you see
overnight again they had some pretty substantial attacks, air attacks
into you brain, the attacks on the frontline continue without
any change, and that's going to continue on because Russia
wants to keep putting pressure on the Western side to
show hey, if you don't accommodate us with what we want,
(08:25):
this will continue, and you know, Matt applies and more,
and eventually this will come to a zero sum for
your side.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
Daniel Davis, thoughtful and insightful analysis. As always, I really
appreciate your willingness to come on in spite of the
fact that you're behind the wheel. Be careful in your travels,
my friend. We'll get together next Tuesday for another discussion.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
We're doing, Brian, thanks for making time for us.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
Take care brother, It's always my pleasure to do so.
Eight thirty Coming up at eight thirty eight fifty five
KCD talk station. Hope you can stick around. One of
the great doctors at ohclet's microphone problems. Apologies, great doctors
at ohg's going to join the program. Coming up next
ye learn about the gamma knife. What is the gamma
knife and what's it used for? And OHC apparently the
(09:07):
only facility around that actually employs his technology. We'll hear
from doctor Courtney Heinz or Hents rather coming up shortly.
Be right back.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
This is fifty five karc an iHeartRadio station.
Speaker 1 (09:20):
Steve Perrins coordinated financial place
Height twenty nine, I fifty five karsde talk station. We'll
just go ahead and dispatch trafficking weather and dive right
on into it. It is time for the Daniel Davis
Deep Dive, my friend retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis, offering
his weekly analysis on mostly the wars going onto the world.
Welcome back, Daniel Davis. It's great to have you on.
I understand we caught you off guard. You're traveling right now.
Apologize for that.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Oh no, I'm sorry. We didn't coordinate the schedules better.
But I'm grateful to have a chance to be honest
with you, even if it's just audio today.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
Well, and that's fine. I know you and I are
normally looking at each other, so I am right now
saluting you as I normally do when we see each
other on video. So rest of the show, and you know,
I recommend my listeners again it's Daniel Davis Deep Dive.
Find his podcast always fascinating and interesting and insightful. Okay,
So we had the meeting Trump and and Peutin, and
we had the meeting with Trump and Zelensky, and then
(00:50):
Trump and Plazansky and the European leaders. Nothing ultimately resolved,
no end of the conflict. But what has got me
concerned Daniel Davis and I just wanted to jump right
into this security guarantees that we're willing to provide. Now,
he did not say Trump that we would put boots
on the ground, but he didn't say we wouldn't. He's
previously said something along those lines. But security guarantees are
(01:13):
a sured security assurances from what the European peacekeepers have said,
includes military presence, air defense, armaments, monitoring, a cessation of hostilities.
All this design to act as a you know, a
foil to Vladimir Putin maybe deciding to go back into
Ukraine at some time after some deal is negotiated. I'm sorry,
Daniel Davis. I'm not one that's inclined to want to
(01:34):
have a permanent military presence in any way, shape or form,
in the United States or in the in Ukraine. How
is it that we are expected to provide at significant
expense any one of these components.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
I don't know, Brian.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
That's That's one of the things that just really puzzled me,
is that why we would even be talking about that,
because here to or we have said no, no security
guarantees on the table, and now all of a sudden,
it's on the table now. According to Steve Whitkoff, he
claims that when he went to talk to Foot, the
whimnesday before the Trump meetings happened was that he said
(02:10):
they had relative concurrence conceptually with Russia, which surprised me
by itself that Russia would be willing to contemplate a
security guarantee.
Speaker 3 (02:19):
When they had been against it before. But everything is, like.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
I've talked about, tend the devil's into details and the definitions.
What if when they think security guarantees, what do we
mean when we say security guarantees? And what is Zolensky thing?
Because I promise you all three of those are different.
We're thinking more like consultations. H and and if you know,
if somebody gets attacked, then there'll be considerations, et cetera.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
And Zelensky is thinking.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Article five NATO, everybody's gonna come white for me, right,
And of course he was loved that that would be
fabulous for him if he got that be a major victory.
But nobody, Brian, I'm mean to just tell you categorically, no,
not America, not Germany, not France, the UK Nobody is
going to go fight a war on behalf of Ukraine.
It gets the nuclear armed country. If this is all
(03:09):
the theater, it's fiction. People are just saying whatever they want.
But when it comes down to brass tacks, I'll promise
you nobody will fight for you.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
Right well, And if history is our guide, attacks on
American military forces or is the case, maybe may mean
NATO forces tend to result in attacks against whoever attacked them.
So isn't it like if we have boots on the
ground there, If NATO has boots on the ground in
order to keep this peace, if the Russians were stupid
enough to launch an attack and killed some service members
that are trying to keep the peace there, doesn't it
(03:39):
to facto kick in Article five because of the inevitable
reaction from those who got the attack.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Will it wouldn't inevitably do that because the Article five
has to specify that it's an attack on somebody else,
not because you put troops into harm's way and then
they ended up getting hit, So.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
It wouldn't be clear then.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
But also let me specify the actual article BIB itself
still does not automatically trigger a military response. It only
automatically triggers consultations. And the article the Washington Treaty that
established the Article VIB in nineteen forty nine says that
each country will then have to go to its parliament
(04:18):
or Congress to just not how they're going to react.
So there is a lot of legal room even in
the current Article VIB of NATO, but they'll be even
less willingness to use force. For Ukraine, I just can't
strongly reinforce this. Nobody is going to have their.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
People die and risk a nuclear tactic. It's their country
for Ukraine.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
Right, Okay, And you know that obviously that that Article
five does not eradicate the necessity of Congress to enact
the declaration of war.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
Correct, That is one hundred percent correct. Our constitution still
hells sway good.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
All right, Now, back to Vladimir Putin, if he is
willing to allow for these so called security guarantees, let's
just say, you know, everybody, he's in agreement, it's not
Article five, but at some presence military or other eyes
by European Union countries, in the United States, or some
combination of all of them. If he's willing to accept
that doesn't that suggest that he's not interested in reopening
this conflict down the road.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
That is one hundred percent correct.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
It couldn't be more strongly in agreement there too, and
that was getting reiterated during the Trump Putting meeting, where
he says, look, we're looking to improve security our business
relationships with both the United States and Europe. That's why,
in addition to their military and for policy people that
they brought to that meeting, they brought a lot.
Speaker 3 (05:36):
Of business people. They don't want a war. They want to.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
Get back to normalized relations and to have business going on,
to re establish business contacts. That's what they're looking for.
They also want to get back into the nuclear arms
reduction treaty talks, the last of which will expire in February.
So they're focused on everything besides conquering Europe, which is
a third and it's always been observed, but now Russia
(06:02):
is putting actions behind it.
Speaker 1 (06:04):
Fair enough now in terms of this multi step process
that's currently in place, Putin's gonna meet with Zelensky and
then the three of them puting Trump and Zlannska and
get together to meet at some future date. Considering Russia's
rather hardline position, with the exception of potential concessions on
security agreement. They haven't really waivered though they still want
(06:25):
that Dunnetts a region of the country which they control
seventy six percent of and Ukraine doesn't want to give
it up. But there was some suggestion that Ukraine might
be willing to make some land concessions. I mean, where
do you see this going if you had to read
some tea leaves Daniel Davis.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Yeah, there's no question that you saw. If you saw
that that famous picture from the Old Office with Trump,
that black and white one where Trump's sitting there pointing
to the map with Zelensky.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
In it, I mean, it gets clear you're gonna have
to give It's not even an option, right if you want.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
The United States you have to stay with you. You're
going to give up some plan. The only question is
how much. And here's the thing that you know. It's
good that they have these mixed conversations because that's diplomacy.
It's always you know, difficulty is always time consuming you
longer than you want.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
And it's good that they're talking. So that's a positive thing.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
But everybody needs to understand Russia is still in the
military dominant position, and they don't have to give in
on any of their core demands, and I don't think
they're going to. So there's going to be territory given up,
and it's going to be important to Russia's requirements and
their security guarantees or dividing will simply.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
Keep going, keep going. And some are suggesting, and I
read this in several places Daniel Davis Fory Part Company,
that this negotiation process, there is no ceasefire. Let's not
call it a ceasefire, call it whatever you want, but
this longer term negotiation process is going to continue while
Russia continues to make advances on the lines in Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
That's exactly I actually made that point of battic yesterday
morning on our show before we went before the meeting happened,
that Russia has completely.
Speaker 3 (07:59):
Said, repeatedly that they are willing to.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Negotiate and talk however long it takes, but they will
not stop fighting until there's an agreement. And you see
overnight again they had some pretty substantial attacks, air attacks
into you brain, the attacks on the frontline continue without
any change, and that's going to continue on because Russia
wants to keep putting pressure on the Western side to
show hey, if you don't accommodate us with what we want,
(08:25):
this will continue, and you know, Matt applies and more,
and eventually this will come to a zero sum for
your side.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
Daniel Davis, thoughtful and insightful analysis. As always, I really
appreciate your willingness to come on in spite of the
fact that you're behind the wheel. Be careful in your travels,
my friend. We'll get together next Tuesday for another discussion.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
We're doing, Brian, thanks for making time for us.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
Take care brother, It's always my pleasure to do so.
Eight thirty Coming up at eight thirty eight fifty five
KCD talk station. Hope you can stick around. One of
the great doctors at ohclet's microphone problems. Apologies, great doctors
at ohg's going to join the program. Coming up next
ye learn about the gamma knife. What is the gamma
knife and what's it used for? And OHC apparently the
(09:07):
only facility around that actually employs his technology. We'll hear
from doctor Courtney Heinz or Hents rather coming up shortly.
Be right back.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
This is fifty five karc an iHeartRadio station.
Speaker 1 (09:20):
Steve Perrins coordinated financial place
Brian Thomas News
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