Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Ken and nine first warning weatherfork casts get the rain
this morning, it'll clear up later light at least by
dinner time. They're saying eighty four today is high overnight
cloudy in seventy two eighty five of the high Tomorrow
is sunny sky for the most part, clear over nine
sixty four and a mostly sunny Thursday with a high
of eighty nine seventy four. Right now, traffic time from.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
The UCL Traffic Center.
Speaker 3 (00:20):
The University of Cincinnati Cancer Center hands the most comprehensive
blood cancer center in the nation. The future of cancer
care is here called five one, three, five eighty five
u SECC traffic's.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Settling down just a bit.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Northbound seventy five make it an extra ten minutes out
of Erlinger into Town. Southbound two seventy five continues slow
at the Carrol Cropper Bridge, So does these found seventy
four approaching to seventy five in Miami Town and southbound
seventy one from Fifer Pass to Red Thank Chuck Ingramot
fifty five krra Zee the talk station.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Eight twenty nine on a Tuesday. You know what time
it is. It's time for the Daniel day of his
deep dive retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis to WINS a
program every Tuesday at this time to talk about well
usually warfare, war strategy, and what's it looked like on
the ground. Welcome back, Daniel Davis. Always a pleasure to
have you on the fifty five Krsey Morning Show. Always
a pleasure to be here, Brian, thanks for having me.
(01:15):
All right, well, let's start with Ukraine. I saw an
article of Wall Street Journal Russian masses fifty thousand troops
around Sumi, putting Ukraine in precarious position. They described as
the Ukrainian forces being outnumbered three to one and some
really high casualty numbers also going along with that on
a daily basis. Plus, the Russians continue to gain ground
(01:36):
and take over more land. Now looking real good for
the Ukrainians right now? Is it?
Speaker 2 (01:42):
Well? That hasn't been looking good for the Ukrainians for years. Man.
Speaker 4 (01:47):
You can really go all the way back to the
end of twenty twenty two where they had probably what's
going to be in history. Is there two signature successes
in this whole even at the tactical level, with the
taking of the Kirsn city and the Kharkiv region, when
they forced Russia back over thousands of square kilometers. Since
that time, it's been almost all downhill in the backwards sense.
(02:11):
For the Ukraine side, it's beginning in the twenty twenty
three offensive where they were crushed in there to attempt
to drive Russia out, and ever since that time they
have been on the defensive, and as you pointed out,
evidence suggested Russia's ramping up for a pretty solid summer
offensive really across the whole front line.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
You mentioned that in the Sumi area.
Speaker 4 (02:30):
Interesting thing about that claim of fifty thousand, it seems
to be that they're prioritizing the Russians numbers of troops
and not so much like mechanized forces and tanks and
the armored personnel carries, etc. Which implies that they're still
and they're going to ramp up their preferred strategy tactic,
which is to cause Ukrainian casualties. Not so much to
(02:53):
take ground, because you're not going to take a lot
of ground without a lot of mechanized forces and other
things to allow you to get further down their field.
But they do have enough to get up to the
line and then continue to have casually, so I doubt
you'll see a big movement in terms of how much
territory is taken here in the next coming months, but
you will continue to see a very high casualty rate.
And as we've talked before, it's a zero sum deal
(03:16):
and the Ukraine side just doesn't have men to replace
those they lose well.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
And I was thinking that along along the lines of well.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
If they ask for more military hardware, then they I mean,
you have to have someone to operate it. And with
a declining number of people behind, you know, triggers in
the Ukrainian military force, which is the direction that's going.
They're running out of people. I mean, extra equipment in
arms is not going to help them with their depleted forces,
It doesn't seem I mean, I don't know if they're
(03:43):
clamoring for more from aid from the United States, what
NATO's position is on this visa. You giving them additional
arms and weapons. But you know, back to my fundamental point, well, and.
Speaker 4 (03:54):
That's been my frustration, especially in the Hague with a
NATO meeting and you know, all these big meetings that
you keep seeing all over the television, and Zelensky again
when he's making these speeches and everybody's cheering loudly and
all this kind of stuff, and they're talking about how
the you know, NATO's going to go up to five
percent to GDP in the next ten years, and a
lot of that's going to Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
They're going to give them X, Y and z et cetera.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
The Zelensky is talking, I need air defense missiles, and
I can certainly understand his desire to have that, but
no one in this all of this self congratulatory parade
talks about the fact that you just mentioned here about
the personnel. If we give you all this stuff, who
is going to operate it? Because there is a dearth
of people of the front line. They still are having
(04:36):
terrible situations where they are grabbing men.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
Off the streets.
Speaker 4 (04:40):
In Ukraine, they're talking about lowering the age of mobilization
down to eighteen. It's terrifying a lot of parents, and
there's a lot of people leaving the country trying to
get out, especially they have sixteen seventeen year old kids.
They want to get them out before it gets to eighteen,
et cetera. There's just no people to continue to operate this.
So you're going down a path that's going to they
will lose a little bit slower if we get this stuff,
(05:03):
but it's not going to change the outcome.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
You will lose well.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
And they've got Grandpa's behind the trigger out there on
the front lines too. I mean, we're talking, you know,
some seniors out there that are have taken up arms
and trying to defend their country, whether they want to
or whether they were pulled out of a bar, and
we're told to that just as reflective a very desperate situation.
Speaker 3 (05:23):
On.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
You mentioned the five percent that Trump was able to
get the or the NATO forces to contribute to their
own defense, which I'm glad to see happening, and we've
been footing the bill to defend them now forever. But
that's a gradual process. Just because they're there and they
agree that, okay, five percent of GDP is going to
go to the they have to build up their militaries.
They don't have sizeable military forces right now. They're going
(05:48):
to have to acquire the weaponry and the machinery and
the hardware, which is going to be a gradual acquisition.
Just by them agreeing to do that doesn't benefit Ukraine
at all, Well, it doesn't, and in fact, there's when
you appeer a little bit more into the details of
what's been claimed, despite all the happy headlines and the
claims that we're gonna go to this five percent, which
(06:09):
is a staggering amount above what they've been doing for
decades by the way. Yeah, uh, then you look at
the details and they're saying, yeah, we'll do another reassessment
about a year after Trump leaves office. So all this
congratulations and claims that they're gonna do this or that
for uh, for NATO. And you saw Mark Rucha, the
NATO Secretary General, just lathering up Trump one side and
(06:32):
down the other, praising him in public and saying all
these wonderful things. But called me cynical, But I think
that a lot of these European leaders have no intention
to ever meet five percent, But they just want to
get Trump off the stage into well they can get
a more amenable president maybe that might not be as
concerned as he is about, you know, not doing more
(06:54):
than our share and allowing them not to.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
So I just called me skeptical. We'll see how it
works out.
Speaker 4 (06:59):
Yeah, but you're talking tim years and they have all
their own domestic economic issues. There's gonna be a lot
of elections.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
Between now and then.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
I'm just put me in the will see camp. Yeah,
I'm with you wholeheartedly on that. I'm Jaden and cinecal
about most everything. So yeah, I'm gonna wait and keep
my popcorn out, wait to see what they actually do.
And let's face it, yeah, they might have conceded a
Trump's demands at least on paper, just to sort of
get them in the room with him when he hit
sits down with him and talks about tariffs. You know,
it's like, you don't want to be in a bad
position visa v. Trump if you have to negotiate with him.
(07:26):
All right, let's pivot over to the situation in around
is in Israel, I personally have no idea how much
damage was done to the Irani nuclear facilities. I haven't
been in there. I think people are still struggling over
whether or not it's been damaged for months or years.
I guess the significant takeaway from me is at least
(07:46):
there's a ceasefire and they're not dropping bombs on each
other and killing each other. Right now?
Speaker 2 (07:51):
Do you see that lasting?
Speaker 1 (07:52):
I mean, some of the statements from the Iranian officials
that are still alive or a little bit troubling, most
notably the factois that was issued on Trump and net
and Yahoo the other day that that's not a step
in the right direction. But whatever, But how do you
see this?
Speaker 4 (08:04):
Yeah, Frankly, you have those kinds of statements coming from
all three parties, the US, Israel, and Iran. So in
my view, this is nothing but a pause because all
three parties needed it. We needed it because especially with
what we're still trying to do with Ukraine and what
we had tried to do in the Red Sea, and
then now with this, we didn't have enough air defensive
(08:24):
interceptor missiles or offensive missiles to maintain a steady state
offensive that could have lasted many months. For example, between
Iran and Israel. Israel obviously was running short on interceptor missiles.
They'd been firing, you know, for a long time here,
and now they stepped up, and you know, the Iranian
show that they had a significant capacity for missiles despite
(08:45):
what some may have believed. I think you and I
have been talking on this show for a long time
that Iran did have the capability to penetrate the iron
DOILM system, and now they've proven it and Israel doesn't
have the capacity to endure that kind of sustained hit,
and they've never suffered this in there our history to
the level they have here, and they can't sustain it.
Iran also couldn't sustain what they were enduring because they
(09:06):
basically had lost their air defense system, so the Israeli
jets were flying with virtual impunity around with the well.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
So yeah, so the bottom line, everybody needed a pause.
Speaker 4 (09:15):
But nobody has changed their position, nothing has been accomplished,
so as far as I can see, we're just waiting
for it to restart.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
Okay, And I guess given the incredible uh Israeli intelligence,
we've got to give them props for you know, sneaking
in and setting everything up for this this strike that
they did. I mean, it seems to me that's changed
the whole nature of warfare when you consider DRNE technology
and how you know, moving in and hiding things close
to the targets is an achievable objective. But don't you
(09:43):
think given these rocket batteries, these missile batteries, I would
argue they take up some large space that Iranian intelligence
or Israeli intelligence would know where they are. So these
this open air space that they were able to get
and achieve that. It just seems to invite launches of
more air strikes to blow up the very missiles that
they can't shoot down once they arrived in Israeli airspace.
Speaker 4 (10:05):
Well, they certainly wanted to do that, but Iran for
decades has been well aware that if they got into
a fight with Israel, that this is how the fight
would be done. So they put very few of their
launchers out in the open to be seen or like
in buildings that where it can be easily identified in
the building blown up, So they've all been the majority
have been underground where they remain. So they have the
(10:27):
situation where like in actually North Korea has done this
for many decades and that may be where they originated.
The idea is that there is like you know, these
hardened caves and then the blast doors will open, the
launcher will come out, it will fire's load, and then
it'll go back in there. So unless you have a
plane in the air just looking or a drone of
(10:48):
some sort that can have a target of opportunity in minutes,
you can't get up there before the thing's back in
its container.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
So it's very very difficult to do that, and.
Speaker 4 (10:56):
We don't even know how many missiles and launchers Iran
actually has. You know, I saw some people claiming that
forty percent of the launchers had been destroyed, because that
seems to be the key issue. You can have a
million missiles, but if you don't have any launchers, it's meaningless.
I don't think anyone really knows how many launchers. They
have to know what percentage has been the damage, so
I would not expect that that's going to go away
(11:17):
anytime soon.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
And I imagine they're spread far and wide geographically too,
so absolutely fair enough. Retire with the Colonel Daniel Davis.
Always a real pleasure having on the program. I'll encourage
my listeners to search for your podcast, Daniel Davis Deep
Dive and as always, I'm looking forward to next Tuesday
in another discussion, Man, I already am too, Brian, Thanks very much,
Take care, brother, have a great week. Eight forty fifty
five kr SE detalk station.
Speaker 4 (11:39):
This is fifty five karc an iHeartRadio station.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
In the podcast,