Daniel Davis Deep Dive

Episode Transcript

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I'm at eazelak on fifty five KRCD talk station six
point thirty right now, if do you have CARCV talk
station and always enjoy this time a week get to
talk to Daniel Davis retired with a Colonel Daniel Davis

(01:09):
with the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. You can find his
podcast where you get your podcast. Welcome back, my friend.
It's always a pleasure to have you on the show.

Speaker 1 (01:17):
Always a pleasure to be here.

Speaker 2 (01:18):
Brian can't wait forgive the camera angle change. I came
in here this morning and someone had shifted switched up
the cameras, and I'm not the tech guy. I have
no idea how to get the camera back, so I'm
kind of looking at you from a different angle. Apologies,
but I can see you, and We've got a lot
to talk about this morning. Let's start with Russia Ukraine.
They had a Russia massive strike on Kiv the other day,

(01:41):
and I know Trump's been trying to finagle some negotiations.
Putin's not necessarily cooperating. Trump then has a conversation with Zelensky,
and after saying last week that we weren't going to
be providing any additional arms, I wake up to find
out that Trump is now resuming sending weapons to Ukraine.
Question for you Daniel Davis. After all the converse we've
had on this, can it do any good? Will additional weaponshipments,

(02:05):
whatever they happen to be, have an impact on the
direction of this war, which is not going well for Ukraine.

Speaker 3 (02:12):
Yeah, that's why I'm kind of scratching my head as well,
because I thought the ideal that they should withhold the
weapons was good a week ago when you and I
last talked, Because look, there is a certain number of
ammunition stockpiles, especially most importantly on interceptor missiles air defense
interceptor missiles. That's something that there is a certain number

(02:35):
that the United States has to keep in our stockpiles
in the event that we get into a war, especially
one that has to be sustained for some period of time.
We've got to have enough to provide for our own
national defense. Sean Parnell the Defense Department last week said that, hey,
we did a review. Turns out that we're getting close
to that. So we have to look out for the
needs of America first and will help Ukraine as we can.

(02:57):
And then all of a sudden last night and the
President to completely change his course when he was talking
with reporters with NETANYAHUU over dinner and says no, actually,
now we're gonna go ahead and do it.

Speaker 1 (03:08):
Now.

Speaker 3 (03:08):
It's unclear exactly what that is because he specifically said
defensive weapons. They need some help, but he didn't say
what those weapons were. Is it is it defensive interceptor missiles,
is it more artillery. It's unclear because they haven't specified
what it was. Sean Parnell listed or issued a statement
last night confirming what the President had said, but he

(03:28):
also didn't say what the weapons were or anything else.

Speaker 1 (03:31):
So we don't know what that is.

Speaker 3 (03:33):
But I can tell you authoritatively, whatever they are, it's
going to be in small numbers and it is absolutely
not going to have any impact on the war at all.
I mean, when we had everything in the world, especially
in twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three for that offensive,
if that didn't change the dynamic, this small trickle, just
to a slightly larger small trickle is also not going

(03:55):
to change the term.

Speaker 1 (03:57):
So I'm not really sure what the objective is here
for the US.

Speaker 2 (04:00):
Well, the listed armaments, at least as a report of
the Wall Street journally start out patriot anti missile interceptors,
and we can that's what I want to focus on,
but AM one twenty anti aircraft missiles. Howit's arounds, AGM
one fourteen hell fires missiles to arm the hi Mars
rocket launchers, Stinger anti tank missiles and grenade launchers. But

(04:20):
focusing on the Patriots. Those are the defensive weapons. Those
are the ones that shoot the rockets coming in from
the foe. Now I seem to have read and correct
me if I'm wrong. If you saw something different that
there was expectation that Russia could maybe launch as many
as a thousand rockets at Kiev or pick another target
or area of targets. I mean, you're not going to

(04:41):
send over one thousand Patriot missiles. I mean, these things
are multimillion dollars a pop. And the idea of shooting
down that kind of barrage of missiles, it just seems
like it's an impossible task.

Speaker 1 (04:54):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (04:54):
Well, the claims that there will be a thousand, there
could be soon up to one thousand air Ara objects
going towards Ukraine. So those combination of drones and missiles,
and what the Ukraine side has done is that they
limit the air interceptor missiles only to like the kinsols
or the cruise missiles et cetera. They don't shoot them

(05:16):
at the drones. Problem is you can't just ignore the
drones because the drones are often sent to the missile batteries,
and if you don't take those things out, then you're
not going to have them to shoot the missiles down
later on, which is one of the Russian objectives. But
the bigger issue is we don't have them. It's not
even as important how much each of those interceptor missiles cost,
and you're right there, very very expensive.

Speaker 1 (05:38):
But the problem is how many we have.

Speaker 3 (05:40):
According to open source information, we produce maybe six hundred
per year. And in that and a blast like this,
you could use thirty forty or even more interceptor missiles
in one barush And you can see that's not gonna
last any time at all for the whole year. And
we can't go down on our own stock policy. We
put our national security at risk. So I just don't

(06:00):
know how you're going to square this circle. Well, what's
your prediction for what happens next? If Phutan's not willing
to sit down. I mean it was Zelenski's all giddy
with excitement about getting another arms shipment, but that doesn't
solve the problem. It doesn't solve the problem of their
manpower shortage, and it doesn't solve the problem of Russia
making further and further inroads in the Ukraine territory. Now,

(06:21):
a couple of things that happened in the last week
since you and I talked. Julian and Urupka for the
German journalist, who's probably one of the best cover in
the war in the West. He's very pro Ukraine, but
he admitted in an interview on the July first that hey,
I'm sorry, folks, but there are not enough Ukrainian men.

(06:41):
He said, there are sometimes just a handful of men
to defend an entire village, and the Russians have more men,
and they have more bombs, they have more drones, et cetera.
So they're able to take them methodically one after the other,
even if it's slow.

Speaker 1 (06:54):
The Ukraine side can't stop them. That's the one issue.

Speaker 3 (06:58):
Then on the second side, you had just last night
you had Sergei Lavrov again say hey, look, we want
to have a negotiated settlement. We're looking we're inviting the
Ukraine side to come back to the third round of
direct talks, which they've had two up so far in
this nimbool, but then he listed his conditions, which are
just as draconing as they have ever been. Meanwhile, Russia
has made more offensive operations and advancements in the area Pakrosk,

(07:21):
and they have now resumed their offensive in Assumi area
and then also kind of in the northern Kupeyansk area,
et cetera. So they are continuing to relentlessly onslaught move
in as they say they want negotiated settlement, and you
have the Ukraine side doesn't have enough manpower and they
don't have enough ammunition to do anything on the battlefield,
So well, where's it going. Russia's gonna win the war

(07:43):
if we don't have a negotiated settlement.

Speaker 2 (07:45):
That's well, and that's obviously from you have to give
them props the Russians for having these strategic objective in
their sits. Continue to pound away, you're winning, You're whittling
down their troops the virtually nothing, they're running out of munitions,
and that pushes us further and for to a point
of capitulation where we get what we want.

Speaker 1 (08:03):
Draconian as our terms may be.

Speaker 3 (08:06):
Well, that's the point, and either they're gonna and they
keep saying this, and they've never said anything else. Quite frankly,
they're either going to get it through a negotiated settlement,
which are these draconian terms, right, or they're just gonna
seize it on the battlefield. And they're showing that they
have the capacity. And believe me, Russia is able to
read the newspapers too. They know how few ammunition or

(08:27):
how little ammunition the Ukraine side, the Western side has
to give, and they know that they are continuing to
shrink the Ukraine army every day, because it is clear
that Ukraine is not able to force mobilize as many
people as they lose on a daily basis, probably in
the order of several thousand, and so that means every
month their army is shrinking, and that diversity or that

(08:47):
disparity that Julian Rupka noted is only going to increase.
And at some point, Brian, at some point there has
to almost methodically, mathematically, there must be a break somewhere,
and then the Russians have one hundred of thousands of
operational reserves that they can flood into a break if
they find one.

Speaker 1 (09:05):
That's where we're at.

Speaker 2 (09:08):
Doesn't paint a very pretty fixture, at least for Ukraine.

Speaker 1 (09:10):
Right now.

Speaker 2 (09:11):
Pivoting over to the Israel Iran situation, I see Iran
basically cracking down on its people, confiscating cell phones, murdering
or executing a lot of people that they believe to
be friendly with Israel, perhaps spies, I don't know. The
graduate imagine the sweep is a little bit broader than

(09:31):
people who are actually guilty of cooperating with Israel. But
that seems the direction they're going. I presume that the
powers of beer a little worried about a coup or
perhaps like a military coup for example, or a popular uprising.

Speaker 1 (09:46):
Yeah, they are the.

Speaker 3 (09:48):
Issue with the surprise attack by Israel on the so
called twelve day War, because it was predicated or started
with Massad agents being physically inside the and you know,
firing these drunes off, very similar to what the Ukraine
side did to Russia a month or so ago and
the bomber fleet.

Speaker 1 (10:07):
The Massad agents did the same thing.

Speaker 3 (10:09):
Well, they had to have some help on the ground,
that much was very clear, and they had locations all
over that had a much bigger effect than just a
tactical help.

Speaker 1 (10:18):
On the first couple of days of the war. Now
it has the.

Speaker 3 (10:21):
Iranian regime and a panic, and so they were cracking down.
And I actually had a conversation yesterday online with a
friend of mine who has direct contacts in the Iranian side,
and they're just in anguish, especially the Kurds, because the
regime is using this opportunity to crack down on anyone's
eeming suspected of anything, and they're definitely going way overward

(10:42):
because they figure, look, let's just use a big net
and that way we'll be sure to get the all
of them, even if we get some people who aren't guilty. Yeah,
whatever sucks to be done, but we're gonna do it.
That seems to be their attitude. And the Iranians have
to be careful with that because if they go too
far on that, they could actually cause some of the
simmering hatred toward their regime from the inside that could

(11:04):
give it fuel. It remains to be seen, and this
source who's been connected for many years and wants to
see an uprising on inside, says, so far, it's not
that far. It's not gone that direction because the opposition
is not unified enough. But if you keep pushing pressure,
you could create it just briefly before we part company today,
Daniel Davis, a brief word or two on the Hoothy's

(11:27):
firing rockets at ships.

Speaker 2 (11:30):
Going off the coast. There, Where is this going and
where do you see this ending? I mean, if I
can even use that broad of a question for you.

Speaker 3 (11:38):
Yeah, there was another ship that was sunk in the
Red Sea, which the Houthis claim was a ship going
to that was helping Israel. It was from a company
that already has one ship in a port at Israel.
So that's the connection between the two here. But this
just shows that despite what we did to the Hoothi's
despote with the Israelis, because they also launched another series

(11:59):
of a taxi gainst toothie targets in some ports, et cetera.
You're just not gonna shut him down. They just are
going to suffer and suck down whatever missiles you want
to send. But they are committed to what they're doing
and they're going to continue to fire at some lower level,
but some level it is as they've been doing for
a full decade already against the Saudi's, against US and
against Israel. You're just not going to shut this down. Okay,

(12:21):
real quick to what end? Yeah, they have to warn something.
But if they're I mean they're if they're if they're
not shooting the hoothies, do they want the war against
the the the Palestinians in Gaza to stop?

Speaker 1 (12:34):
They said, if you stop that, we stopped this one.

Speaker 3 (12:36):
And when we had the ceasefire last time, they did
until we started attacking again. So if there is a ceasefire,
if Trump is able to get a ceasefire with Nan Yahoo,
as he says he may be within a week, then
that will also stop.

Speaker 1 (12:49):
Huh.

Speaker 2 (12:50):
Well, maybe there is a bright spot in this discussion.
Daniel Davis Daniel Davis Deep Dive every Tuesday here in
the fifty five Jarsey Morning Show. Of course you can
find his podcast throughout the week. Daniel, always a pleasure
having in the program Sir, my.

Speaker 1 (13:02):
Pleasure, my friends.

Speaker 2 (13:02):
See you next time next Tuesday. It's a forty two
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Speaker 3 (14:04):
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