Daniel Davis Deep Dive

Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (01:00):
Happy Tuesday. I always look forward to this hour of
the week because it's time to get the Daniel Davis
Deep Die with former retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis doing
war analysis and perfect timing on this Welcome back, Daniel Davis.
It's all as a pleasure having you on the fifty
five Case Morning Show. Always a pleasure to be here.
Brian Well continuing a theme that we've been talking about

(01:21):
with Russia and Ukraine. Every week we talk, we talk
about how the Russia has a much stronger position going
into any discussions about a ceasefire or resolution of the
war whatever to stop the bloodshed. They have said repeatedly
over the course of the last week as we fast
approached this meeting to try to resolve the conflict with

(01:41):
Donald Trump in several days, that we're not giving up
the land that we've got. We demand some concessions on land.
We demand that Ukraine be precluded from entering NATO. I mean,
it's the same line in the sand that Putin's been
drawing from the day one, only to get in response
from Zelensky and apparently the European UN. No, we're not
going to concede Land, and we're not going to give

(02:03):
up the possibility of Ukraine entering NATO. So we're at
this stalemate. Well, things have just gotten better for the
Russians as we move forward to this meeting this weekend.
Let my listeners know what's going on in the Eastern region.
Daniel Davis.

Speaker 4 (02:15):
Yeah, there has been a continued stalemate in the political realm,
but in the military realm it is far from that,
and in fact, there has been some pretty major developments
in about the last forty eight hours where there has
been a major penetration of the Ukraine lines by the
Russian forces north of a city called Pokrovsk.

Speaker 2 (02:33):
They've been going after this for quite some time.

Speaker 4 (02:34):
We've been mentioned in I think several of our conversations
we've had in recent months that this is something Russia
has been moving closer and closer towards. But now then
it appears that they have a major breakthrough where they
have moved in twenty four I'm sorry, in the thirty
six hours about twenty kilometers deep and now about seven
kilometers wide. They're expanding their bridgehead and the reason is

(02:57):
because Ukraine simply doesn't have enough men.

Speaker 2 (03:00):
That's been a theme you and I've talked about for
a long time. Now it's actually manifesting in.

Speaker 4 (03:04):
A really powerful way because Russia many of the trench
lines that they went up to, and they've got video
showing this, there simply weren't any Ukrainians manning them. Defensive
lines were good, they were certainly capable of doing the job,
but there weren't enough troops demand them. So now Russia
has penetrated through those lines, gotten behind some of them,
and now then they're extending deep and wide into to

(03:27):
the last major line.

Speaker 2 (03:29):
Of ukraine defense.

Speaker 4 (03:30):
This is similar to what Ukraine was trying to do
in twenty twenty three when they wanted to penetrate the
Russian lines of defense, make a breach and then put
troops in to get all the way down to the
Azov coast. They never made it past the first one
because Russian's defensives and their manpower were sufficient to repel that.
Now then the situation in reverse. Ukraine doesn't have the

(03:51):
number of troops and if Russia continues to exploit this
right here, there are no defensive belts in the remainder
of the interior of the country, and if Russia has
the forces and crucially the logistics to be able to
back this up, they could continue to roll as far
as they can drive, because Ukraine simply doesn't have the
manpower to stop them. Now, Ukraine does recognize, you know

(04:14):
how critical this is, and according to all the sources
I can ascertain this morning, they're literally throwing in the
kitchen sink. They're using all their strategic reserves, the Azole Brigade,
they're pulling folks from other portions of the front to
try and stop it. But here's the problem, Brian they
don't have fortifications in this area, so they're going to
be fighting in the open, which means that's going to

(04:34):
give the advantage to Russia. Russia accomplished this by a
combination of drones, of course, troops on the ground mainly infantry,
not armored so far, but the glide bombs have been
a huge issue. The artillery. They have just been saturating
these areas, making the thin lines even more brittle. And

(04:55):
now then we've seen a major break and it's unclear
if Ukraine can stop and you know, coming literally days
before this, Trump putin meeting here. I mean, if anybody
was ever looking for political leverage, you know, at the
highest levels, this is certainly providing it. And it just
almost shreds any kind of hope that Trump can go

(05:15):
in there and deal with the Europeans are going to
ask him to do. Tomorrow, there's a big meeting between
the heads of state and Trump on a phone call
to try to convince him not to quote give away
the store, but there may be nothing to quote give
away because the Russians are simply taking it. This is
the most the deepest penetration Russia has had in two
years of fighting, and could come at a time when

(05:36):
it signals this war could be coming to an end.
It's not gonna happen overnight, but this could prove to
be the pivot point that sees this war come to
an end, either negotiations or through a Ukraine loss.

Speaker 1 (05:49):
Well, in terms of conceding land, obviously, Russian now is
controlling a bigger chunk of land. Is this Pakrovsk region?
Is this one of those areas that's predominant Russian leaning,
like we had with Crimea, where they could make a
legitimate claim because hey, these are Russian people. They would
rather be affiliated and under the leadership of Russia as

(06:10):
opposed to Ukraine. We're taking that area. Other areas of
Ukraine are more independent. Folks don't perceive themselves as to
be Russian. So how about this particular region and this
new area that they've taken over.

Speaker 4 (06:22):
It's a mix, but it's there is still a significant
portion that's ethnic Russian. And there is all the way
to the Daneppe River and what the Russians concerned called
Novo Russia, which is I think eight oblost the first eight.
Instead of the four that have currently been annexed, there's
eight about eight up to the river. That importantly includes

(06:46):
some of the area where Odessa is in the south,
which is beyond the Danepper River. So there's a lot
of area there that includes a lot of ethnic Russians,
and certainly they would welcome this, but there's lots of
others who are not ethnic Russians who are fearing it.

Speaker 1 (07:03):
Well, what do you expect to happen this weekkend Daniel Davis,
I mean, a moment of clarity for everybody in the
European Union. I mean, interestingly enough, Jad Vansh just said
the other dav was yesterday, we're done funding the Ukraine
war business. We want to bring about a peaceful settlement
to this thing. He said, We're not gonna pay for
these arms anymore. European Union wants to do it. Fine,
but you painted a scenario that even if the European

(07:24):
Union showed up today with a whole bunch of arms,
there aren't enough men to use the arms to fight
back the Russians. So are we gonna have a moment
of clarity this weekend when they're all gonna wake up
and say, you know what, Vladimir Putin's hand is a
lot stronger than ours. We don't have anything to bargain with.
We're gonna have to start cutting up Ukraine.

Speaker 4 (07:41):
You know, Brian, if there was going to be a
moment of clarity, that it would have already come. These information,
this fundamentals have been there almost from the beginning, and
I've been, you know, beating my head against the wall.
So if there was a moment of clarity, they would
have already gotten it. So I doubt I honestly, I've
out even now they'll have it. And in fact, some

(08:02):
of the statements I've seen in just the last twenty
four hours. This shows that a lot of the European
leaders are still oblivious.

Speaker 2 (08:08):
To this and just no, no, no, no, we just
need more stuff.

Speaker 4 (08:11):
We just need the US to give us more interceptor
missiles or artillery pieces.

Speaker 2 (08:15):
Whatever fill in the blank. They just want.

Speaker 4 (08:18):
They just aren't willing to So I don't think even
this will provide clarity. I think the only thing that
could provide clarity is if you see Russian mechanized formations
exploiting this penetration, and instead of just infantrymen who are
limited by how fast you can you move to walk
to portions of the front, they could then, once they

(08:39):
have it broad enough, they can drive in and now
then you could see not tens of kilometers falling per day,
but hundreds of kilometers falling per day. Then you might
get a moment of clarity where they realize, oh, snap,
we either end this now or we could lose everything
to the Dneppa River and possibly beyond, which is very
much a real conces.

Speaker 1 (09:00):
Well, and let's assume that's gonna happen, because that's what
seems to be going on every week we talk about it.
Russia improves its hand. They seem to be in a
collective state of denial obviously. So if Russia does go
out away to the river and they get all the
land that they're hoping to get, and they accomplish that,
they bring the tanks in, they roll forward quicker, I

(09:20):
suppose will Russia be able to hold it? You and
I have talked about the concept of an ongoing, long term,
protracted like guerrilla warfare. The Ukrainians will take to the
hills whoever's left and constantly pester and shoot and attack
the Russians in a piecemeal fashion, never giving them any
peace whatsoever. Can the Russians maintain control over that region
once they have control of it?

Speaker 4 (09:41):
They seem to think they can. And that's still I mean,
the answer is really unanswerable right now. We can only project.
But the Russians apparently are aware of that, have considered that,
and are prepared for that, and they apparently will want
to hold onto areas where it is mostly ethnic Russian.
And look, I'm not going to defend this, but I'm
just and say that I would guess, and no one's

(10:01):
told me this, but known history, I would suggest that
if they take this area to the Dipper, they'll probably
expel any population that is not pro Russian, that doesn't
want them, you'll see a version of ethnic cleansing, just
like we did in World War Two in several places
in the ugly aftermath of that fat You know, it
happened when the Germans were moving forward, they ethnically cleansed areas,

(10:24):
and when the Soviets came through, especially in Eastern Europe,
they did the same things. And so I unfortunately would
expect something like that to happen because Russia doesn't want
to get into a situation like you described, so that
they will try to clear it out. And they still
expect tho that there would be some for they said.
One source I've talked to you said, there's a five
year plan post the end of this conflict where they

(10:46):
expect to have to find that and then over time
it'll peter out, which matches what we also saw in
the post World War II area where the Soviets had
a lot of that, especially in Hungary and Yugoslavia and
some other areas. We saw that and it took four
or five years to peter out before it finally did.

Speaker 2 (11:01):
And looks like the Russians are prepared for that. Well.

Speaker 1 (11:03):
We can have a long term discussion on it. But
that sounds to me if I can draw a parallel
and link its sover Because we haven't talked about Israel Gaza,
it looks like Israel's going in and just going to
completely try to like not say ethnically cleans, but basically
try to throw everybody out of Gaza as a strategy.

Speaker 2 (11:16):
Now, well, I.

Speaker 4 (11:18):
Mean it is, and you can use whatever term you
want to, but the net on the ground is it
appears the same that they're trying to physically force everybody
all the two point whatever is millionaire still left and
move them into the southern part of the script, which
is just like putting sardines in a can. And I
don't know if you've seen any these pictures recently, but
it's nothing but fields of tents and just lean tos

(11:41):
and just i mean not even official tents, just tarps
and whatever else that can get all in the rubble
because there's nowhere to live, and that's not sustainable that
you can't do that.

Speaker 2 (11:50):
It's not even at this point of matters.

Speaker 4 (11:52):
So much of making sure you get enough food aid
you although that's obviously required to keep people from starving
to death, but you can't sustain that can live that way.
So either Israel's gonna have to relent and allow people
back into other areas and spread them out and then rebuild,
or somebody else is gonna have to take them to
go out. Otherwise you'll probably literally start getting large scale

(12:15):
die offs. And I just it's a horrible, horrible humanitarian situation.
I don't see a good military outcome or a political
outcome for Israel. I think they kind of box themselves
into a position, even if people are very much pro Israel,
I mean, militarily speaking, this is not sustainable and it's
not going to bring peace to Israel. And I don't

(12:35):
know what in it Yaho government's gonna do.

Speaker 1 (12:38):
Wow, boy, I wish we had better news. But you
got to tell call him like you see him. Daniel
Davis appreciate the time you spend my listeners to me
every week. We'll do it again next Tuesday. Every Tuesday
Daniel Davis Deep Dive and search for his podcast online.
He's talking. He has some interesting and wonderful guests on
his show. Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Great talking with my
brother always a pleasure, Always my pleasure. Br Ryan see
you next week, next Tuesday, eight forty Right now, five

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