Daniel Davis Deep Dive

Episode Transcript

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It's Tuesday. It's time for the Daniel Davis Deep Dive.
Brian Thomas here with retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis getting
the latest update. Welcome back, Daniel Davis. Always a real

(01:03):
pleasure to have you on my program and always a
pleasure to be here, and good to be back in
the studio today.

Speaker 1 (01:09):
And oh, yeah it is. That's right. Last week was
on the telephone. That's all right, it was we got
it in, we got the information we needed and another
week has passed, so they resolved the conflict between Russian
and Ukraine. Yeah, Daniel Davis, Wow.

Speaker 3 (01:21):
You know, I assumed. I mean, it's been a whole week.
You'd figure the word be over by now. But yeah,
it doesn't look like there's been any change since last
time you and I talked.

Speaker 1 (01:29):
Well, except there was a map that was posted Aljira
is the site. I don't suppose it really matters, but
it shows who controls what in Ukraine, and you know,
Russian advance areas, Russian control areas. This I just sum
it up as from my perspective, it is not a
pretty picture for President Zelenski and Ukraine because Russia keeps

(01:53):
seeping further and further a west.

Speaker 3 (01:58):
Yeah. In fact, there was another one and then I
think it was the Institute for the Study War, which
is and also one in a Wall Street Journal which
put probably the same kind of information out there. I mean,
the information is what it is. And you if you
have this dichotomy that's hard to explain. On the one hand,
you have these very bold and brash statements by Zelensky

(02:19):
on Sunday on his independence Day where he said, we
haven't won yet, but we will definitely not lose, and
we are going to Basically, we're still looking for territorial integrity,
we still want our borders back. We're still not going
to give away any territory. And by the way, I
still want more bombs and bullets and stuff from everybody.
And then you have the European leaders lining up, cheering

(02:41):
it on, saying yes, here's some more stuff. Germany says, yeah,
we're going to give you more things, just in the
last twelve hours. But then you look at that map
and you look at the Russian side, which says, listen
that we haven't changed any of our stances and well
over a year, and if you want to keep going
down that path there, we'll keep going down the path
we're going in, which is slow by any measure, but

(03:04):
in terms of territory, but it keeps piling up the
Ukrainian casualties and you just can't sustain that over time.

Speaker 1 (03:11):
It just can't be done. I think it was Wall
Street Journal, and I read it was an interesting suggestion.
I didn't quite buy into it. But Ukraine's drone attacks
on the refineries and oil production in Russia and the
Russian territory is having an impact the rationing gasoline, I
guess in some places in Russia. And they were kind
of suggesting that, well, you know, maybe Ukraine could really

(03:32):
make something of this. If they can tank Russia's economy
by hitting its oil infrastructure really hard, somehow that's going
to result in maybe some form of victory. Not knowing
where all the oil refineries are and where all the
drilling is done in Russia, Sir, I don't really know
if Ukraine has the ability to reach and hit a

(03:52):
bunch of Russian oil infrastructure targets. They can hit some,
clearly because they've done it. But what do you make
of that suggestion? Yeah, that's a thin hope.

Speaker 3 (04:04):
And according to the Russian press that I looked at
just before we came on here, there are some serious
concerns about what that's doing to the gasoline supply throughout
the country, and there are some, but you've got to
understand just like what's going on in the opposite direction.
When the Russians attack on the Ukraine oil infrastructure, that
causes a lot of difficulty and pain, but those things

(04:25):
get repaired and then they get brought back online. And
it's the same thing in Russia too. I think the
number is like eighteen percent according to one calculation, that
the refining capacity has been taken offline. Well, that still
shows you that eighty two percent is online, and a
lot of it, as you point out, is beyond the
range of anything of the Ukraine side.

Speaker 1 (04:44):
So that will continue on.

Speaker 3 (04:45):
And if Russia has to ration gas for its population
in some areas, they'll do that as long as it
doesn't affect the military, which by all accounts it has not.
So when you're talking about war making capacity, that causes
pain for the Russians. They don't like it, but it
doesn't limit their ability to fight at the front line
or in the air, and that is where the war

(05:05):
is being lost by the Ukraine side.

Speaker 1 (05:07):
Yeah, and of course the imbalance in troops, that's something
a common theme between you and I. Russia has obviously
almost unlimited number of troops, although I noted, did I
read correctly that the North Koreans are no longer involved
in fighting the conflict in Ukraine or not?

Speaker 3 (05:23):
But there's apparently a potential on the table for it.
If the two sides decide it's a good idea, they
could have up to thirty thousand more. But even that
number is really inconsequential because Russia apparently has more than
enough troops. In fact, they've got somewhere most reports somewhere
around seven to eight hundred thousand not in contact that
they could call upon if needed. So thirty thousand from

(05:46):
North Korea is probably not going to make any difference strategically.

Speaker 1 (05:49):
And what do you make of the At least I
read that the United States was prohibiting Ukraine from launching further,
a longer range strikes into Russia. That's we're taking an
active role in strategy. Is this like Vietnam we have
you know, consultants on the ground and helping them out
from a logistics standpoint, or is this just a practical consequence. Well,

(06:10):
if you want aid from the United States, you want
missiles from the United States. You can't shoot them at
longer distances. I'm trying to make some sense out of
all this.

Speaker 3 (06:18):
Yeah, yeah, for sure that there are limitations and constraints
on the supplies that the Trump administration is given to Ukraine.
And of course, and that makes sense. I mean, if
Trump is having all this personal negotiations with Vladimir Putin
trying to bring the war to an end, it's not
going to go well if at the same time he's
enabling the Ukraine side to have these long range strikes

(06:40):
it hit important targets deep inside of Russia which can
only be effected using American troops to get it done.
Because a lot of these things are so technical and
require capabilities beyond what Ukraine has, you can't just hand
them a missile launcher and say, hey, do whatever you
want with this. They have we have to participate in
key areas here.

Speaker 2 (06:58):
And I don't know for.

Speaker 3 (07:00):
A fact, but I suspect that that probably was part
of the conversations privately between Putin and Trump, that he's saying, hey,
you want to be a mediator here, but you can't
be a mediator if you're simultaneously allowing them to hit
us deep inside here. You need to call that off
if you really want to have it, and then maybe
we'll have some concessions for you, et cetera. I suspect
that's probably part of what's going on here.

Speaker 1 (07:21):
Well, wash Rents repeat this. You know, every time we
talk about the current status of negotiations, clearly there is
no ceasefire. The war continues. Russia continues to make some
tiny advances. They're going back and forth with a tit
for tat. The position of Zelnsky has not changed, and
the position of Ladimir Putin has not changed. If Putin

(07:43):
wants his land, however much it is, Zlnski says, no
land period, end of story. We remain at this permanent impass,
don't we.

Speaker 3 (07:52):
I mean, really well, we remain We remain at a
diplomatic impass. We don't remain at a military impass because
Russia continues to grind away. And when I say grind away,
I mean primarily on the Ukrainian armed forces and the
composition of their army more than the land. The land
is a byproduct according to what the Russians say, and
that we see that that's exactly what they're doing. Now

(08:14):
you look at the economies, because you have to have
an economy to be able to enable operations at the
front line here, and you see that the Ukrainian economy
has just been gutted all throughout this war, and yet
they still remain in the fight. And there are some
signs on the Russian economy that it's going down, but
don't put your hopes in that, because you still see

(08:35):
the grinding down at the front.

Speaker 1 (08:37):
Well, and to the extent we have any arsenal any
eras left in our quiver in terms of sanctions, do
you see them as a vehicle to get this thing
resolved or have we used all our ammo in terms
of sanctions.

Speaker 3 (08:50):
Well, in fact, it's because of the previous rounds of
sanctions and the arrows we've used to use your analogy there,
that Russia has had to reorient its economy into other
areas so that it's not subject to that. So you
can still throw some arrows out there, But now then
Russia has made itself almost impervious, certainly has greatly reduced
the risk that that could harm them by just modifying

(09:14):
their economy. So we just don't have the kind of
arrows that they need anymore.

Speaker 1 (09:18):
All right, let's real quick. We have not talked about
Israel Gaza in a long time. Just want to get
your sort of brief comments and maybe summary of where
you perceive that situation to be right now. Daniel Davis. Yeah,
it's in a difficult situation here.

Speaker 3 (09:31):
I mean, you've gotten some really troubling signs that have
come out lately. First of all, just even President Trump
condemned an Israeli attack on a hospital that was the
double tapped and so when the first aid workers came
to try and help out, they were then blown up.
That's not helping Israel at all because it's on camera,
people can see it, and it's hard to defend. Meanwhile,

(09:53):
inside Israel, you have another challenge in that this is
what I've been arguing about, that Israel is on a
path to where it cannot militarily accomplish its goals, so
it's just a permanent fighting. And you had the Israeli
chief of the IDF say that he's vehemently asking Yahoo
and this has just in the last twenty four hours

(10:14):
to take the ceasefire on the table because we need it,
the Israeli side needs it, and you're not going to succeed,
and by continuing to occupy Gaza, you're gonna put the
remaining hostages lives at risk. So there's a big debate
inside even Israel right now, and they're coming to the
realization this is not a military attainable goal and they're
gonna have to do something different.

Speaker 1 (10:34):
I've read a lot about the casualty the guys and
citizen casualties, but what of the Israeli casualties. I mean,
are is the military just merely exhausted or are they
losing a lot of lives in comparison.

Speaker 3 (10:47):
Of course, they're not losing anywhere near as many lives,
but they are wearing out the military itself. The suicides
are going up. PTSD is starting to be a problem.
And because Israel has always relied on a relatively small
active force and then a big reserve force that they
can call up in times of war, well now then

(11:08):
you're talking, you're closing in on two years, and it's
just not designed to do that to be a permanent deal,
because all the lives of these reservists are now getting
turned upside down because they're constantly on and off of activeduty,
and that messes up their businesses and everything else. And
again it's just not sustainable because the system wouldn't design
for this kind of a war. Israel's going to have

(11:28):
to do something different or everybody's gonna end up losing.

Speaker 1 (11:31):
Daniel Davis deep Die I find a podcast, follow him
throughout the week here what he has to say, and
join us every week here on the fifty five cars
See Morning show. It's eight thirty for the Daniel Davis
deep Die, my friend. It's always great talking with you,
always my pleasure. See you next week, Next week, eight
thirty nine, fifty five KR see the talk stations. Stick around.
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Tell you give you some information about hearing aids generally,

(11:52):
why they're important, and when you should consider them, that
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