Daniel Davis Deep Dive

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Speaker 1 (00:46):
AY twenty nine. On a Tuesday, you know what time
it is is time for a Daniel Davis deep dive.
Every Tuesday. At this moment in time, we get to
retire Lieutenant Colonel to give us his analysis. And again
we're going back to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Another week, another conversation and no resolution. Daniel Davis, welcome back,
my friends. Always great having you on the show.

Speaker 3 (01:07):
Yeah, I bet it's not as great as me being here.
I look forward to this every week. You're good man, Daniel.

Speaker 1 (01:12):
I appreciate these kind words and a lot of activity
over the weekend. Apparently the largest strike by Russia on
Ukraine since this thing started. Are we in at three
and a half years at this point, oh man? Time flies? Anyway,
eight hundred drones and thirteen missiles fired in Ukraine, most
of which I guess five hundred reportedly shot down, of course,

(01:33):
meaning three hundred of the drones got in and a
handful of the missiles gotshat. It looks like nine of
the missiles made it through and we're not intercepted. I
guess my first question is, certainly this is not a
movement toward resolution. This is an this is increased pressure. Again,
it's the largest strike yet. But I guess I'm kind

(01:54):
of wondering, you know, just from a military and a
strategic standpoint, Daniel, is there any rhyme or reason to
what Russia is targeting with these because they hit residential neighborhoods.
Sometimes they comparently hit one of the Ukraine Cabinet ministry building,
but that sounds like maybe a legitimate target. But I mean,
is this sort of like willy nilly launching things and
just irking and and pissing off Ukrainians and making the

(02:17):
populace angry or what's the story from a military perspective, Daniel, Yeah, it.

Speaker 3 (02:21):
Doesn't appear that way. What you got to understand that
what the Ukraine side does, and to an extent you
can understand this. All of these anti aircraft missiles and
interceptor missiles that are fired up, if they miss, they're
gonna come down. And it's been very often throughout this
entire war that much of the damage inside residential areas
is because either of an interception that success succeeded, and

(02:45):
sometimes it'll hit like the rocket motor of an incoming
missile will knock it off course and then of course
it just falls wherever it falls, or the interceptor missile
itself misses and then we'll land on a residential building.
And when much of the infrastructures that Ukraine has is
intentionally placed inside residential areas to make it harder for
Russia to do so that they get accused of this

(03:06):
stuff internationally. Russia has apparently calculated that they don't really
care about what the international is going to say anymore.
So if there's military infrastructure inside residential areas, they're just
going to go after it. And it could also be
that they're attacking some civilian territories impossible.

Speaker 1 (03:23):
I don't know.

Speaker 3 (03:24):
There was another one overnight that had twenty one retirees
killed in an outlying village, and it's hard to see
how that was a military target.

Speaker 1 (03:32):
I don't know.

Speaker 3 (03:33):
But what we do know is that Russia is saying, listen,
we're in this to win it, and we're not backing
down any from that. We've made a path open for
a negotiated settlement, which is basically capitulation. They say, you
can either take that, or, as Putin expressly said in
Beijing last week, we'll keep going until we went it
on the battlefield. That's the stark reality well.

Speaker 1 (03:53):
And on our side of the equation, since, at least,
thank god, thus far, we're not planning on putting boots
on the ground. I know Zelunsky's asking for more Patriot
interceptor missiles, which are extraordinarily expensive and finite in quantity
and tend to be used up rather quickly. That is
not going to stop the Russian offensive. I don't think
there's any possible way, noting the manufacturing hurdle, you have

(04:15):
to even get them over there. But what is left?
Trump keeps threatening Russia with like additional sanctions or something.
I keep asking out loud, when are our options going
to run out? And is there really anything left in
our arsenal to throw at Russia that's going to get
them to come to the table or otherwise soften their
position on a negotiation.

Speaker 3 (04:37):
The options have run out, not are running out, but
have run out. We simply don't have them because of
all these seventeen rounds of previous sanctions that we've done
since February twenty twenty two, there's nothing left, and Russia
has made themselves essentially a sanctions proof. Now, there are
some things that we can still do which could cause

(04:57):
some pain to Russia, but not enough caused any kind
of change in policies. And that's one of the things
I emphasized so emphatically here is that these seventeen rounds
of sanctions has never succeeded a single time in compelling
Russian compliance on any topic. Somebody's irrational to the highest
degree to think that anything next would have a success

(05:20):
where the other eighteen or seventeen have already failed. And
now then the one area where we have put something
on is on India. So there's a fifty percent tear
up on India alone, and that's what The only thing
they are talking is separate is reflective tariffs on those
that do business with Russia, thinking somehow that would cause it,
but there's no chance. In fact, India today I saw

(05:42):
in the news actually says they vowed. Now not only
are they not going to stop buying Russian to ole
like we wanted, they're going to increase by somewhere between
fifteen and fifty percent in the coming number of months.
So that's also backfired, and that of course helps Russia
out as well. So we are faced with this stark situation.
We either accede to math that Ukraine can never no

(06:06):
matter how many missiles they get, they can't overwhelm the
number of incoming Russian missiles which are increasing, and that
the menpower on the front. By Sirsky's own admission, yesterday
is a threefold advantage for Russia. You cannot even hold
on with those numbers. So we either give into the
acknowledged reality, or we keep with this pretending that we

(06:27):
have something to do and just watch Ukraine get ground
to dust. That's where we are, Brian, is that stark? Wow?

Speaker 1 (06:33):
And no, you can't look back and say, well, three
hundred that movie shows that, you know, a few number
of men can fight off a massive army. That is
not reality in this current situation. And even in the
movie though, those three hundred ended up losing. So that's
not a good model either, fair and fair enough, I forget,
it's a very important element of that. Well, so the
really concerning thing for me, moving aside from justice conflict,

(06:55):
we've in essence driven the prime minister of any emodi
into the arms of the Russians. I mean, they were
a valuable trading partner and we you know, they got
a billion people. That's a lot of business we can
do and they're you know, we should be. I'm alarmed
by that growing relationship between Jiji and ping Vladimir Putin
in India.

Speaker 3 (07:16):
Yeah, and absolutely, I mean India has intentionally wanted to
have a kind of a hands off attitude both the
West and the East because they wanted to kind of
straddle it. They said, we want to do business with everybody.
We don't want to join one block against another, and
they successfully did that. But now we're shoving them over
into that block. And then now then you're adding and

(07:36):
you just saw it in Beijing last week where they
had their World War two victory celebration. You also added
Kim Jong unt that on the stage. You had the
president of Iran that was there, in addition to a
whole bunch of others, but you had all of them
happy together. That's not good for us, and that's what
our policies are producing. You should be worried about that. Yeah,
it is a huge concern of mine. Well, and then

(07:58):
what of the European Union on this? And we've had
multiple conversations over the hell coming up in years now,
Daniel Davis. But the European Union being in a sense
of our state of denial, they keep saying, no, no,
we need to fight, we need like whatever. Now France's
economies collapsed and their government has collapsed. I don't know
where the European Union is at this moment in time
relative to the conflict, but they still seem to be

(08:18):
emasculated and incapable of doing anything anyway. And you've got
the matters compounded by French as of France's economy going
into the toilet, right, and then you can you can
also add Germany into that same calculations, and you know,
and then you have Robert Fiso and Victor Orbon on
the other end saying, hey, we just want this war
to get over with so we can get back to

(08:39):
doing business and stop costing ourselves to the inexpensive gas
from Russia et cetera in the quantities that are needed.
So you have fracturing all over the European Union. But
the bottom line is that whichever ones are cleaning on to,
let's keep doing something or in absolutely you said it
best denial. There is no path militarily, diplomat or economically

(09:01):
where they can avoid defeat. And the longer we ignore that,
the longer we harm our own interest, not just those
of the Ukrainian people, who are enabled to fight a
war that can only be lost. That is, it's a
real problem and something we're gonna have to face, probably
sooner rather than later, or Ukraine will simply lose the
war and then we'll be in a much worse situation.

Speaker 1 (09:23):
Yeah, And honestly, from from my perspective of my position
right now, looking at where we are, they're just on
a path to lose the war. As long as Russia
is not willing to capitulate on anything, that's it. They're
going to continue to do these massive strikes like they
did over the weekend. They've obviously got the resources and
the manpower to do it. They've got no incentive stop.

Speaker 3 (09:41):
I don't know, Daniel Davis, I hear you. You want
to finish that sentence with something that's I know, I
can't find one either. It's just why would they go
down a path that can only fail? It's a edge scratcher,
It truly is. Nobody wants to submit to feat but
clearly they're on the path to defeat. And that's just

(10:02):
practical playing in your face reality. Brought to you by,
of course, Daniel Davis, retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis. Look
for The Deep Dive where you get your podcasts and
follow him and always tune in on Tuesdays at eight
thirty for another well interesting discussion. Even if we can't
resolve the problems of the world. Daniel, We try.

Speaker 1 (10:19):
We do. Love you, brother, Thank you, Great week Man
thirty nine. Fifty five talk stations Stick around me right back.

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Speaker 1 (10:31):
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