Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Chuck Ingram, fifty five KRFC the Talk Station. Hey twenty
eight here fifty five KRCD Talk Station. It's Tuesday. It's
that time a week regular listeners, No, it's appointment listening
time for the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Retired Lieutenant Colonel
Daniel Davis joins the program every week, as he does
throughout the week with his podcast, Daniel Davis Deep Dive
talks about matters military, which he clearly has a whole
(00:22):
lot of information about, as we learn every single week.
Welcome back, Daniel Davis. It's always a pleasure, sir. Good
to see you did a lot.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
To be here, Brian, thanks for having me back.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
All right, let's start with Iran. This kind of reminded
me of the red line of the Sand Barack Obama
mentioned with regard to Syria It's use of chemical weapons.
You know, blah blah blah, red line of the sand,
do not cross it. And then the line gets crossed,
and then you wait and wait and wait for something
to happen, and nothing really happens. Donald Trump lately has
been making a lot of very strong pronouncements with regard
(00:52):
to the crackdown on protesters in Iran, most notably last week.
He said on Friday, I made the statement very strongly
to the they the Irani and start killing people like
they have in the past, we will get involved, will
be hitting them very hard where it hurts. Doesn't mean
boots on the ground, but it means hitting them very hard,
very hard, where it hurts. Similar pronounces have been made,
but the crackdown continues now. Depending upon who you believe.
(01:13):
Given the fog of war, somewhere between oh six hundred
and two thousand protesters have been killed, lots and lots
arrested a multiplier of that, but it continues. Internet's been
shut down, which makes it a little more difficult for
the protesters to organize themselves. But the Trump response now
has been to levy a twenty five percent tariffyn countries
(01:36):
doing business with Iran? Is that the step after these
claims about military involvement and bombs being dropped and at least
alluding to all of that, is this the response to
the line being crossed? Because of course this killing continues.
Daniel Davis, you know, I mean I.
Speaker 2 (01:54):
Want to back up just a bit and even look
at why was that a red line ever drawn?
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Period?
Speaker 2 (01:59):
Why is it in the interest of America? Why is
it a vital national literat that we should risk our troops,
our planes and go and kill somebody in another country
because there's some protests going on, or there's things happening
in there we don't like, or that their protesters being killed.
Even that's not there's no authorization or justification for that anyway.
(02:20):
And so I don't know why we would let that
be a deciding factor if it wasn't our national security
or anything related to the interest of America. So that's
the first question, which has not been answered at all
so far, right, And then the second one is if
you're gonna make a threat and then all of a
sudden there's a basically a truth social post it's twenty
(02:40):
five percent. That's I mean, there's there's literally thousands of
sanctions already on Iran. This is not no one's even
gonna notice this one. It's not gonna have any real
impact on anything. So I don't really understand. Now, I'll
tell you what I'm concerned about. What I fear is
that we just don't have all the assets in place
right now. And that's the only reason you haven't seen
any strikes because we don't have that much combat power
(03:03):
up there. You may recall that just a few days
before this, we did have a big strike in Syria,
so that's obviously in the same region, and we do
have some package. I was curious that we used apparently
a large strike package against alleged ISIS targets in Syria
when we're already talking about maybe doing something in Iran,
and you don't see this big build up of power
(03:23):
like you did, say before the war in twenty or
the options in twenty twenty four when we helped Israel
against Iran, or in the so called Twelve Day war
in June of last year. So I'm not sure what
we can do other than firing some demonstrative missile strikes
here and there. It's not going to be really painful,
and who knows whether they're going to have any impact.
(03:45):
So this is this is a big puzzle to me.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
It is, and I suppose to the former comments, you're
channeling a friend of the show, Senator Ran Paul, who
expresses the same concerns about congressional involvement, declarations of war,
and the larger question, Wait a second, are you going
to be doing this everywhere freedom and democracy or whatever
is in jeopardy or anywhere in the world, whether people
being having the rights violated, And the answer is that
(04:08):
that would be literally impossible. So we're picking and choosing.
But also I read an article, and maybe this is
to your point about whether we are ready to engage
in some sort of military operation in Iran. I've heard
that the military, the folks within the military, the generals,
the admirals with whom I guess Donald Trump consults, say
they are not ready to do engage to engage in
(04:29):
this that bombing Iran may suggest a much longer, more
protracted military involvement than we are ready to bite off
at this point. I guess we got our hands full
over in Venezuela with a lot of military resources there.
We certainly have not had the problem when the South
China seed disappear or go anywhere. So we're kind of
spread far and wide. Is that really maybe part of
(04:50):
the problem, Daniel Davis.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Well, it's part of many problems. I'll tell you that
the fact that we are spread literally to the four
wins in the Seven Seas, and we are four structure
is not really that big. And so if you get
called into engagement anywhere it's gonna come close to tapping
you out. And we saw we had fifteen percent of
the Navy and all kinds of other power marines, air Force,
(05:13):
Navy all down there in the Venezulin area. Well a
lot of that, most of it is, I understand, is
still there. So you haven't redeployed that anywhere. It takes
a long time to ship things back over into the
Middle East, etc.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
I think you'd need.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Probably a couple of aircraft carriers if you're going to
do anything meaningful to Iran, and I haven't even heard
of the potential deployments of any of that yet. Thankfully,
I'm glad because the last thing we need to do
is to go back and start another war with Iran,
because Iran has said that this time that the gloves
would come off if you attack us again. We're going
to hit your bases throughout the Middle East. And I
(05:46):
can just tell you from personal experience of being there,
many of these far flung bases that we have throughout
the Middle East have literally no air defense coverage on
a strateg or on a theater level operation, and those
missiles from Iran could just rain down and there's nothing
we could do to stop them. They could cause enormous damage,
and we need to be really, really careful that we
don't get into this habit that we can bomb anyone
(06:09):
would want, like Venezuela and nothing will happen. Ever, because
one of these days we're going to bout off more
than we can chew, and all of a sudden, there
could be Americans throughout the Middle East or killed for
no reason at all. So this is something we really
don't need.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
To do, so, I would think given the seemingly precarious
nature of the Iranian administration, given the protests, a lot
of people speculating that maybe the regime will be overthrown.
It remains to be seen. But desperate situations result in
desperate acts. So, Daniel Davis, in your military experience, do
you think Iran will make good and launch attacks on
(06:44):
our various military resources in the Middle East, which suggests
also that Israel might get attacked. They've done it before.
That means Israel would get involved in whatever retaliation if
they launch one.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
That is the threat that it would be the US
and Israel, they said, and so they would have hit both.
And I think that the intent is to say, hey, look,
you saw what happened during the Twelve Day War. Your
air defenses in Israel couldn't even protect you, and it
won't protect you this time either, because we have rebuilt
a lot of the capacity that we lost there, and
they've continued to make a lot of these better era
(07:16):
ballistic missiles that were so successful last time. And listen,
a lot of these protests, too many people in the
West are saying, oh, this is just all indigenous stuff,
It's just natural. It's not there has been long time
simmering things. There are domestic issues, but there is no
question that a lot of this has been fomented from
the outside. Mike Pompeo openly admitted on his ex account
(07:39):
that Mossad is in the is already on the ground there.
There has been many other credible reports that both six
and CIA has been fomenting things on the ground to
try to make it worse than it was, and a
lot of people in Iran are understanding recognized that The
reason why that is so important to understand is when
you're talking about there is the legitimate possibility for large
(08:00):
scale upheavals that could overturn the regime.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
If you make them.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
The regime recognized that they their very existence could be
a threat if they do nothing. Now they have no
motivation to restrain themselves if you now add on top
of that missile. So we don't want to put them
into back them into a corner to where it's like
use it or lose it, because they may use it.
I'm just telling you our defenses will not stop most
(08:25):
of these things, and we will suffer casualties if we put.
Speaker 1 (08:28):
Them in a no win situation. Well, you know, interesting
the global outside influence pot stirring that's made that's led
to some of these protests, we might want to look
a little bit inwardly about that same concept happening here
in the United States of America, because we have a
lot of protesters here who many analysts and researchers have
suggested are being stirred by outside nefarious forces who just
(08:48):
simply don't like the United States.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Yeah, you know, what's good for the goose is good
for the gander kind of thing, and we don't like that.
We don't talk about how bad it is, and we
try to expose whenever that does happen, and we've been
doing it for decades. I mean, oh yeah, a long time,
and you know, and sometimes those chickens can come home
to roost. And this is part of the reason why
I'm adamantly against that. I actually believe in self determination
(09:16):
of people in Iran want to change their former government.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
That is their right prerogative.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
They take all the risks and the potential rewards for
whatever they do on their own. We don't need to
stir the thing up or do anything because our national
security is not at risk no matter who runs Iran.
They are a weak country militarily and they don't threaten
us at all, so we don't need to use any force.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
Whatever they do is.
Speaker 2 (09:38):
On their own. But when we do that, Brian, it
then invites it to come back home. And I fear
that we may find that to urcha grin one day.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
Well, it's interesting quote a silver parallel that I'm gonna
quickly draw here the anti Iranian sentiment, and I agree
with your principles about we don't need to be going
around telling anybody else how to live their lives. Period
and point taken the ant Iranian propagandas built into the equation.
We remember the overthrow of the shot, We remember the
taking of the hostages. We remember Iran threatening to blow
(10:07):
everybody up with the nuclear weapon. We think it's a
dangerous thing to get a nuclear weapon, on and on.
This has been going on for decades, so there's this
general animosity toward Iran which makes something like this military
strike seem more palatable. Like, yeah, this sounds analogous to
Vladimir Putin. Yeah, he was affiliated with the Soviet Union.
A lot of people my age, you know, I'm sixty,
I remember the Cold War. I hated the Soviet Union
(10:28):
as much as the next guy. So sort of that
animosity is baked into the cake, which is I think
a lot of the reason why people are so against
the Russian invasion in Ukraine. Again, to the security interests
of the United States, Ukraine doesn't really pose any this
war is ongoing. I see that Russia recently bombed to
the Ukrainian city which with reportedly one of those hypersonic missiles.
(10:49):
Is that accurate, because seems to me that Russia still
keeps moving forward and capture more Land. Daniel, Yes, it
is absolutely accurate. I was reading some of those reports.
Is very warning.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
A lot of viscandors and other hypersonic missiles and then
another wave of the guaranty drones, the theater level drones
that have been going across most of them, well not
most of them, but a large number of them, a
large percentage to get through every time. And it is
just continuing to just destroy the ability of Ukraine to
have any energy electricity, either to do business or to
(11:23):
have military industrial capacity.
Speaker 1 (11:26):
It's all just devastating that. And now then they're.
Speaker 2 (11:29):
The mayor of Kiev is literally telling people to leave
the city because they don't have enough power to keep
people from freezing to death.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
That tells you a lot right there, It really does.
I want to say war of attrition, but it's one
that the Russians seem to be winning, right. Just real
quick quick question before we part, Cody Daniel Davis, did
you ever when this first started, this conflict with Russian
invading Ukraine, do you ever anticipate that it would take
this long that this war would still be going on
without some clear victory. I would imagine my guess early
(11:59):
on would have been the rush would have rolled right
over Ukraine apps in some mace, massive outside force boots
on the ground from the European Union or NATO or whatever.
But they keep moving forward and it's been going on
for a long time.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
Well, the problem with the Russians is that, and with
that scenario is that they did not intend to do that.
They did not intend to roll over and take over
the country because they knew that. I mean, they'd been
watching a year civil war going on before then, they'd
been watching NATO build up the Ukraine military, so they
knew that they were capable and fairly large, and so
they went in with a relatively small force.
Speaker 1 (12:32):
It was a demonstration force.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
This canard that Russia thought they were going to win
in three days was nonsense. They never said that. They
never intended that. They didn't have the force to it.
They intended to compel a negotiated settlement, which they nearly
got in Istambul two months into the war. But then
when they didn't get that, they didn't have a plan
be resourced, and that's when they said, oh crap. And
so it took them a year and a half to
(12:55):
get back up to the point to where they're at now,
where they can fight and win a war of attrition.
Speaker 1 (12:59):
That's where are at now. And so.
Speaker 2 (13:03):
That no, to answer your question, I didn't expect this Russia.
Didn't expect this. I did not expect that this would
go on this long. I thought we'd have a negotiated
settlement a long time ago, because that was in the
best interests of Europe, Ukraine, and the United States. Unfortunately,
that's not what we did, and now then we have
a much stronger Russia our on the NATO Eastern Flank
than we had before, and we're gonna have to deal
(13:24):
with that for a long time to come.
Speaker 1 (13:25):
Every Tuesday, beginning at a thirty, the Daniel Davis Deep
Dive with our guest and friend, retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis.
Find him where you find your podcast, Daniel Davis Deep Dive,
It'll be on my blog page fifty five Casey dot com. Sir,
you have a great week. We'll do this again next Tuesday.
Look forward to it, Brian, see you then, take care, sir.
Eight forty two Dusty