Daniel Davis Deep Dive - Foreign Policy

Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:55):
Ay twenty eight to fifty five Karra see de talk
station Happy Tuesday. Made always happier because it's that time
we'll get an update on the various conflicts going on
in the in the around the globe with a deep
dive with Daniel Davis. It is that time for the
allertive moment, Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Welcome back, Daniel. It's
always a pleasure to have you on the fifty five
KRC Morning Show. My friend.

Speaker 2 (01:15):
I look forward to this every week. Glad to be here.

Speaker 1 (01:17):
I'm glad you do because I find it just absolutely
fascinating tapping into your years of military expertise in the
field of conflict. If you don't mind, I'm going to
start with the Russia Ukraine situation. I've recently read that
Russia is making some gains taken over some more land Ukraine.
But the thing I wanted to start with now I've

(01:37):
acknowledged time and time again with you and other segments
on the program, the fog of war. You have no
idea what in the hell's going on on the ground
and any given conflict, we don't know what the actual
casualty number is, but the New York Times just recently
reported that the Russians have suffered six hundred thousand casualties.
Now that's dead and wounded collective. But I did a

(01:59):
quick check and during the entire nine years that the
Soviet Union was in Afghanistan, they lost a total of
fifteen thousand met and they were there nine years. So
in terms, even if the figure is half of what
the New York Times says, I mean, that's a significant
amount of carnage. And I can only imagine how bad
it's been for the Ukrainians.

Speaker 4 (02:19):
Yeah, my, honestly, I don't think that that number is
anywhere close to being right, just based on how the
war is being waged, what the Russians are doing. I
think that that, frankly, is part of the disinformation campaign
by the West. But I will tell you, and I've
talked to some pro Russian people who say the number

(02:39):
isn't minor. They say it's somewhere around eighty thousand dead,
which is a staggering number. It is when you're talking anything,
because it's like probably double that wounded, seriously wounded we're
talking about. So it's massive numbers no matter what. And
the reason I say I don't think that the high
number is right is because of how Russia conducts itself.
It doesn't use these so called meat wave attacks, which

(03:01):
everybody in the West seems to say as a matter
of fact that that's what they do. That's not how
they operate. They actually lead with firepower, artillery, drone strikes,
missile strikes, et cetera, so that they don't put their
troops in as much risk. Now then they're not going
straight bull rushed into cities like they did in back moot.

Speaker 2 (03:19):
They're doing flanking maneuvers, et cetera.

Speaker 4 (03:22):
So I think that they're causing a whole lot more
casualties on the Ukraine side, but they are now prioritizing
not losing their men and spending more ammunition in response.

Speaker 1 (03:31):
Honestly, sir, that's exactly what I expect you do to say,
because when I saw that, I'm like, there's no way
six hundred thousand. But we'll take the numbers as we
see them and will analyze them accordingly, which is why
I appreciate we have you to talk to about it.

Speaker 4 (03:43):
And you know, it doesn't make any sense what they claim,
which they claim Russia has more casualties than the Ukraine
side does, even though they also claim that Russia has
between a five and ten to one firepower advantage, And
I just don't know how you get the logic that
says that guys with ten times more ammunition and weapons
suffer ten times more casualties.

Speaker 2 (04:02):
It's just irrational, all right.

Speaker 1 (04:03):
Moving to what seems to be a certainty, it's widely
reported Russia has made some gains in Ukraine, in the
territory within Ukraine, and they are advancing rather than while
being held held on a line. Yep, that's right, yeah,
it's it's it's not a stalemate. It is a methodical
grind forward.

Speaker 4 (04:22):
And in the last about month and a half, Russia's
gains have been picking up speed. This incursion into the
into the Curse where the Ukraine and in August invaded,
a portion of Russia is being squeezed out, and it's
it's now a serious risk of being completely cut off
at the neck, so that Ukraine will either have to
withdraw them all real quick, or they'll have they may
lose them. But on the eastern front, around the Pokrolsk area,

(04:45):
around a city called Tourets around they just lost another city.

Speaker 2 (04:49):
Called around Vuladar. They're moving forward, et cetera.

Speaker 4 (04:52):
All the places that that they're fighting there's three main
ones in the east and they're just making methodical progress
in each of them.

Speaker 1 (04:59):
And they're holding the line there too. This isn't like
they capture a city and then the Ukrainians come in
around side or flank them and push them back out.
They're holding the territory as they advance forward.

Speaker 2 (05:10):
That is correct.

Speaker 4 (05:10):
There haven't been any meaningful counter attacks, even tactical counter
texts by the Ukraine side, maybe since February of this year.

Speaker 2 (05:20):
So it is non stop backwards for the Ukraine side.

Speaker 4 (05:23):
Occasionally as sending reinforcements into one area lock just in
front of Pokrovs, one of the probably the number one
target in the east.

Speaker 2 (05:30):
They have slowed down the initial or the.

Speaker 4 (05:33):
Direct front in there, but then that means Russia has
gone elsewhere around the flanks. So they stop one place,
but then they pulled troops away to make it firm
and they hold the line a little while, but then
when they pulled troops from here, then Russia goes there
with other troops and then they penetrate there. So it's
just to lose lose for the Ukraine side right now, well,
ignoring whether or not they have sufficient arms to defend themselves.

(05:56):
Does that suggest that there are insufficient troops to get
the job done? On the Ukraine side, that's the primary
issue right now. It's primarily a troop. Is you actually
a lot of the sixty one billion dollars that we
approved earlier this year? A lot of stuff is also
coming from several European states. They're actually getting more and
more ammunition right now. But it's a man power issue.

(06:16):
It's always been. War is always won by men, not machines,
not money. But they are having an incredibly difficult time
because they're just running out of men, quite frankly, and
they've been press ganging them into service.

Speaker 2 (06:30):
They literally take them off the streets.

Speaker 4 (06:33):
They're trying now recruiting print drives, which are kind of
curious because they featured lots of sexual in tone ads.
I don't know why they think that's going to get
somebody to go to the front, but that's what they're trying.

Speaker 2 (06:45):
They're doing.

Speaker 4 (06:45):
They're pulling out all the stops. They just don't have
enough to offset losses.

Speaker 1 (06:49):
Maybe they should promise them the number of virgins after
death when they die as an incentive to anyway, don't
go down that road. Just let me how about the
idea of North Korean North Korean troops helping out the
Soviet or the Soviets very slipped again, north Korean troops
helping out the Russians. Did I read that correctly?

Speaker 2 (07:09):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (07:09):
You did.

Speaker 4 (07:10):
There's been more and more credible reports that North Korea
has not simply been helping Russia with artillery shells other
kinds of military help, which has been enormous. I'm reportedly
between three and four million shells have been sent by
North Korea, but now also thousands of men, especially some
of the defensive positions.

Speaker 2 (07:31):
The rumor is that.

Speaker 4 (07:34):
Some of the North Korean troops are going into places
to replace Russian troops that are like defending borders, etc.

Speaker 2 (07:40):
To free up more combat troops to go into Ukraine.

Speaker 4 (07:43):
So far, there has been one report of North Korean
troops that were killed in action, so that there has
been some fighting in the front, but we don't know
quite the numbers. Apparently it's in the low thousands at
the moment, but a lot of that maybe just be
to kind of test the international waters to see what
the pushback may be, and if there's not a lot
more could come later.

Speaker 1 (08:02):
Well, this does not sound like it is aligning up
to be very good, at least as far as the
Ukrainian's bargaining position. To the extent some sort of treaty
or settlement is negotiated, they're going to have to probably
give up a sizeable chunk of land in order to
get to get some peace in the region.

Speaker 4 (08:19):
Well, you know, Zelenski continues to make all I mean,
he just went on another European tour this past few
days where he keeps talking like he did when he
was in Washington for the United Nations Summit, that he
wants to have a strong, peaceful settlement that he can
quote only get peace through strength, which you said just
two days ago, that he wants to force Russia into peace.

(08:39):
But there is no forcing Russia into peace when he's
losing territory by the day.

Speaker 2 (08:43):
So the longer he waits to make that.

Speaker 4 (08:45):
Kind of offer to where he's willing to make a
negotiated settlement and lose some territory, they're just going to
keep losing more territory that's going to be taken by
force of arms, not by negotiation. And every day his
position gets weaker, not stronger. So I worry about the
fate of Ukraine if they don't make a deal pretty soon.

Speaker 1 (09:04):
All right, let's pivot over to Israel and the ongoing conflicts,
multi front battles being waged there. What's your assessment on
going forward and where those conflicts are going to lead Israel.

Speaker 4 (09:16):
Well, the biggest thing right now is that a lot
of people have been surprised, me being one of them,
that Israel has not already responded to the October first
Iranian strike of one hundred and eighty missiles. A lot
of people thought that it would be a response within
I don't know, a lot like three or four days,
maybe you're a week, But now then it's two weeks

(09:37):
since that had happened. And I think that the reason
is because there's a tremendous amount of diplomacy going on
behind the scenes where the US is trying to talk
Israel down from some of their bigger strictures. Because you
hadf Tally Bennett in the first few days saying, man,
we need to go after their nuclear weapons, we need
to go after their oil infrastructure, and a lot in
the United States were saying that.

Speaker 2 (09:59):
But that's how you get into a region wide war.

Speaker 4 (10:01):
And I think no matter what the administration wants to
happen on the ground, they also don't want it to
go into all that war that whose end is unknown,
that could cost us a great deal. So I think
that's starting to have some success. There was reports that
the Israeli said over not that they won't hit the
energy or the oil infrastructure, and so they're going to

(10:21):
go after military targets. The problem is, I'm not sure
that that's going to be viewed as you know, appropriate
for the Uranian side, and they may still respond back,
so we may not be out of the woods yet.

Speaker 1 (10:32):
This thing could still escalate into a war. Yeah, I
was surprised that Israel has actually said that out loud.
I mean, what you know, for a Wall Street Journal
article from this morning, Israel is sure as US it
will not strike Irans oil and nuclear facilities. Officials say,
I don't know why you would say that out loud,
even if you were not planning on hitting those. As
long as the threat exists, maybe you keep her on

(10:52):
at bail a little bit.

Speaker 4 (10:54):
Well, I mean that assumes that that's a true statement
and is not a deceptive plan, which it could be
like to make them okay, good, they're not gonna come here.
Oh shoot, they did, so I don't take that at
face value at all.

Speaker 1 (11:05):
All right, Well, you're now general of the army, and
you're a five star general, and you're in charge of
making the decisions on behalf of the Israelis What would
you do by way of whether retaliate or not? What
would you what would be your path forward? Considering, of course,
as we have talked about, and you just alluded to that,
a serious escalation like hitting their oil manufacturing or hitting

(11:26):
their nuke sites may very well result in potentially a
global conflict considering all the players that are involved on
the Iranian side of the equation.

Speaker 2 (11:33):
Right right, that's exactly right.

Speaker 4 (11:35):
What I would do is I would do some version
of what they did after the April attack when Iran
sent all those missiles and drones into Israel in response
to Israel blowing up the embassy in Syria. By striking
something that doesn't cause casualties like what the Uranians did.
They made sure that both of their responses didn't kill

(11:55):
anybody on the ground. They took out a few targets,
and they just basically just said, hey, we don't want
this to escalate, so we're gonna hit nonsensitive targets. If
you hit do something like that, then there's a chance
that you can now tamp this down and stop going
up the escalation rater. Then I would focus on not
expanding the war, because they've already committed themselves to this
new incursion into southern eleven, which is a full out

(12:18):
war by itself.

Speaker 2 (12:19):
Don't let anybody tell you any differently.

Speaker 4 (12:21):
Every aspect of warfare is being engaged here, and that
is already going to be a monumentally difficult task for Israel.
They should not take on more than their military can handle.
So I would if I was a fovester general, I
would say, let's figure out what to do about this
one in Lebanon before we even think about doing anything
with Iran.

Speaker 1 (12:38):
And then, of course, I presume that strategy that you
could propose is coupled with maybe cracking down and reimposing
the sanctions on around to cut off their money supply,
which the Biden administration hasn't been doing a late.

Speaker 4 (12:52):
Well, you know that's I see that in the news
a lot, and I scratch my head and I wonder
what they're talking about, because there are incredible sanctions still
in place on Iran. They were crippling sanctions, but the
biggest place where they get money is areas. We don't
have the power to sanction ie money going to China
because China and India, because they're buying Iranian oil, not

(13:14):
subject to our sanctions. Because so there's really not much
more room to knuckle down there, and none of the
sanctions have had any impact so far, so that's not
really going to solve any problems.

Speaker 2 (13:24):
And most of the things that might are beyond our reach.

Speaker 1 (13:28):
So what we then would have is two foreign powers,
Iran and Israel, just continuing this tit for tat game
over time with no will.

Speaker 4 (13:38):
Here's the thing, though Iran does not want a war.
They have signaled in every way possible that they want
to defend their interest as they see it, but they
don't want it to escalate. So they're fine, especially after
seeing is Hassanzreela assassinated in Beyrout in a lot of
their senior general some of the senior IRGC leaders have
also been killed. Iran is fine with not escalating this

(14:00):
and I think they would like nothing more than for
this tip to tat escalation ladder process to stop.

Speaker 2 (14:05):
So there is a reason to think that could happen.

Speaker 1 (14:08):
I suppose one of the ways they could get it
to stop is quit funding the terrorist organizations.

Speaker 4 (14:13):
Well, and again that depends on your perspective. From our perspective,
that's it's a terrorist organization, but from their side, it's
a resistance to all the things that Israel is doing
against it, and it's interest in the region.

Speaker 1 (14:25):
Uh.

Speaker 4 (14:25):
And that's an unsolvable deal because you're one guy's freedom fighters,
another guy's terrorists.

Speaker 1 (14:30):
Lots of layers in this cake, Sir, It's always a
pleasure to talk through them with you. Retired Lieutenant Colonel
Daniel Davis. Another fun edition of The Deep Dive with
Daniel Davis. Search for it online you find his podcast
throughout the week and I'll look forward to another discussion
with you next week, my friend, you next week. Take
care brother A forty two fifty five cars the talk
stations stick around. We got a little more talk about Joe.

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