Daniel Davis Deep Dive - Israel / Hezbollah Ukraine / Russia

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hey, twenty nine here fifty five KRSE detalk station. It
is that alliterative segment of the fifty five KRSE Morning Show.
Can't take credit for the name. It is Daniel Davis
Deep Dive. You can search form online the podcast Daniel
Davis Deep Dive. Good to have you back on this show.
Daniel retired Lieutenant colonel and analyst of things conflicts mostly related.
Lately we're gonna talk about the Middle East, shocking no one.

(00:23):
Good to see you. Good to have you back on
the show, My friend always great to be here. I'm
actually looking forward to this as much as my own show. Now.
I'm glad. I really have fun talking with you, and
you know, you offer a very it's a unique insight.
I think that's where the value comes from. You just
have a different way of looking things, and of course,
you know the horrors and the fog of war. Difficult

(00:43):
to come up with solutions, but it always helps when
you have some sort of strategy or a plan if
you're getting into a conflict, which I don't know that
we have here going to Ukraine, and you know, I
just can I before we talk about the Ukrainian president
offering this sort of piece, the piece through strength, solution
and real quick. I just wanted to get your reaction

(01:03):
on what I thought. My immediate reaction was to laugh.
But the genius of being able to plant bombs inside
pagers and walkie talkies that the Hesbala people had, I
mean they the Hesbala guys are the ones that got
blown up, is it not. I mean a master work
of intelligence community to get those things in the hands

(01:24):
of those guys and simultaneously blow them up, which I thought,
knocking them back on their heels, which would open an
opportunity for Israel to yes, go in militarily and go
after the terrorists in Lebanon, which apparently has happened.

Speaker 2 (01:39):
Yeah, it's in terms of just state craft and of
the intelligence ability to do that, it's it's truly an
unprecedented event. Yeah, it's never been done to that extent
because there was so much complexity and so much time
necessary to set up shell companies and to make the
recipients think that it was a trust agent and all

(02:00):
that kind of stuff. There are some issues around the
edge because it was not very discriminated. Some you know,
children were killed who happened to have the pagers, so
you know, it's not a clean operation, but it's it
definitely operationally significantly damaged his blows ability to communicate. And if,

(02:21):
as I suspect is the case, Israel's getting ready to
go in on the ground and push back. They've signaled
everything to that degree, this will significantly complicate his Bill's
ability to coordinate a reaction on the ground.

Speaker 1 (02:34):
And you can't deny the psychological benefit it had to
have had. I mean, can you imagine that Hisbolla commanders
when that happened, and what their reaction might have been.
So score one for the psyops I suppose to, but
I just I couldn't believe my eyes when I was
reading what I was reading about what happened. Both, let's
move away from Israel and Lebanon and Gaza and get

(02:55):
over to Ukraine, where President valk Zelensky, I guess has
presented some sort of East proposal to Biden. I'm calling
it peace through strength, because that's what he's saying, strengthening
us and we can negotiate some peace. What's your take
on this one, Daniel, What are the details of this
proposal of the extent we've eate anybody knows him yet?

Speaker 2 (03:14):
Listen. It's bizarre, is the only word that I can
come up with, because everywhere you look, and I'm talking
about in the last twenty four hours, actually the last
twelve hours, there are continuing extensive losses by the Ukraine side,
especially on the Eastern Front. They have taken one small
village in the course carry up in the north, but

(03:36):
then they are continuing to lose more ground kind of
in the neck of that penetration ip up into Russia,
which now puts their whole battle force at risk of
being cut off if they don't withdraw pretty soon. And
so when he comes in now and says, and he
was asked specifically on ABC News last night, does your
plans envision negotiation, because that's kind of what he has implied,

(03:58):
And he said, no, does it imply in negoti we
just want to, through diplomatic means, make Putin think that
he can't win, so that he gives us what we want.
And I'm sorry, that's not how war works, that's not
how human nature works. When you're on the commanding side
and you have all of the advantages and your side
is physically winning on the battlefield, you're not going to

(04:19):
negotiate a bad position, and so I don't really understand
what he's thinking. The only thing that I'll say is
that maybe he's gonna ask Biden to say, hey, put
us in NATO, give us more long range weapons, so
that'll change the actual calculation.

Speaker 1 (04:36):
But that is never going to happen now. And we
are talking about Vladimir Putin here, right. I mean, he's
got an ego the size of the continent. I mean,
he is not going to back off on something like that.
I mean, I don't know the guy personally, but I
have observed his behavior and his conduct over the years.
If he's not happy about something, somebody dies or he
gets his way, and he is not going to to

(04:56):
put his tail between his legs. That's my analysis of
the guy. No psychologists, and I don't play one on radio.
But going back to the long range missiles I heard
the other day, and I'm sorry I camera call the
source of my apologies, but I'll just gauge your reaction
on this because it sounds logical coming from Vladimir Putin.
He told us, do not sell those long range missiles

(05:17):
to Ukraine, and do not let them hit in the
interior of our country, or you my friend, United States
have started World War three in essence, they have nuclear
capabilities and they will be willing to use them. Any
truth to that is that anything you heard this minus
thinking this was kind of like back channel communications, Yeah, yeah.

Speaker 2 (05:35):
There have been I actually have heard some sources who
claim to have knowledge of about some of those back channels,
And the claim is that Russia's was very very emphatic
about what they would be willing to do. They certainly
wouldn't go to nuclear weapons immediately, like if we authorize
long range missiles and they were used. And the reason,
by the way that he says this is because those

(05:57):
missiles are so sophisticated, both in their operation and in
the targeting mechanism that requires satellite guidance and satellite target identification,
which Ukraine doesn't have. So if it will only be
at our direct engagement, which many people in the ways
have admitted to ironically, But the bigger issue is that

(06:17):
the missiles are not going to change the course of
the war, even if it didn't escalate, it's not going
to change anything because there's not enough of them.

Speaker 1 (06:25):
We don't even have enough, as our.

Speaker 2 (06:26):
Secretary of Defense openly admitted, We don't have enough. But
what Russia has claimed is that if that happens, even
on the tactical you know, in conventional format with missiles,
then they will respond in kind. And we don't know
for sure what they mean, but so I think that
they would possibly strike like AMO depots in Natal countries

(06:48):
if that happens, And of course, now then you've got
Article five implications. And then I think that's the other
reason why they didn't mention the nuclear capacity, because if
NATO things are going to end the war, then you Russia,
in their view, will have no choice because they can't
handle conventionally NATO. Then they would use, They're willing to
use tactical nuclear weapons, and man, I'm saying, why even

(07:09):
toy with that possibility when there's nothing to gain even conventionally.

Speaker 1 (07:13):
Don't do it. Yeah, I share your concerns along those lines,
but a pivoting over the broader concerns you just pointed out,
we don't even have enough of these missiles, and I'm
thinking along the lines for our own protection benefit or
any conflicts we might be involved with. Something I hear
and read repeatedly over and over again. It was back
when we were talking about one hundred and fifty five

(07:33):
millimeters shells. We're running out of those. Well, it's only
old equipment and we aren't got to yet. Fine, whatever,
we're trying to build up Japan's army, we're trying to
build up Israel, supplying them with weapons. We're supplying Ukraine
with weapons. What about are the exhaustion of our own
defense capabilities, our own ability defend ourselves or wage war?
That is a serious concern, isn't it. It's an even

(07:54):
bigger than that. To me.

Speaker 2 (07:55):
You had Jake Sullivan about a week or so ago
in a public forum admit that we had to get
all the interceptor missiles we had offered everywhere else in
the world, everywhere else, to give them all to Ukraine. Now,
you mentioned at the early part of this show here
the era Israel war. If they go in on the
ground against Hezbolah, they have hundreds of thousands of rockets

(08:19):
and weapons, they will need even more interceptor missiles than
we have. So if we are already exhaust given them
to Ukraine, and then now here Israe's about to need
even more? Where are they coming from? And then God
help us if we get into a warning where which
is what we're supposed to have our military for to
defend our interests if we then get into a war, Brian,

(08:41):
we don't have any interceptors, and that makes us strategically vulnerable.

Speaker 1 (08:45):
It's a bad move. Well, and knowing that Chinese are involved,
the Iranians are involved, and the Russians are all involved
in these multiple conflicts, they're all helping each other, supporting
each other with supplies of weapons. It makes me want
to suspect, given the demands of our US military manufacturing capabilities,
that part of them is really engaged in a battle

(09:06):
of attrition to see us use up all of our
military hardware, giving them an opportunity to do all I
don't know, maybe invade Taiwan, or maybe invade some other
country or who knows.

Speaker 2 (09:15):
But we're in jeopardy. We don't even end this strategic
and we're sucking ourselves into that track. Yes, they may
have that intention, but only because we're enabling it. That's
the maddening part to me, is that we're facilitating ourselves
getting sucked into a trap.

Speaker 1 (09:33):
Daniel Davis always refreshing and enlightening conversation, maybe not always uplifting,
but gotta call it like it is. Man, gotta call
like it is Next Tuesday. We're trying to avoid the
worst outcome. I know you are, and I'm with you
on that. I had enough award. Tune in next Tuesday
for another Daniel Davis deep dive. In the meantime, search
for them online. You'll find them. Take care of my friend.
Best of health you next time. All right, brother, coming

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