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November 5, 2024 15 mins
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Ato six if if you find Karen c De Talk Station,
Brian Thomas right here. Glad to be especially on a Tuesday,
because this is the time we get the inside scoop
with bright Bart News bookmarkt B R e I, t
b a art dot Com, some solid reporting from folks
like my guest today, John Carney, bright Bart financial letter
and co author of breit Bart Business Digest. John, welcome

(00:21):
back to the morning show. It's a pleasure to have
you on as always.

Speaker 2 (00:25):
Yes, thanks for having me pleasure.

Speaker 1 (00:27):
Man. What's this election going to mean to the economy?
I was kind of glad. I think everyone expects the
Fed to lower the interest rate, but at least they
waited to laughter the election because that's certainly would have
been viewed as some sort of perhaps election interference. At
least that's the way I perceive it. But by all
expectations are supposed to lower it. I know, folks that
are interested in buying a home expect a little love

(00:47):
in terms of interest rates. But generally speaking, Kamala Harris
versus Donald Trump, the outcome is going to have some
impact on the economy. What's your take, John.

Speaker 2 (00:58):
Yeah, So, the so the Fed did cut in September,
but mortgage rates have gone up since then because the
market actually doesn't think the FED will be able to
keep cutting. They're almost certainly going to cut later this
week in November, but after that, either in December or
sometime next year, they are going to have to slow

(01:18):
down their cuts because, frankly, there are parts of the economy,
including consumers spending, that are just too high to justify
further cuts, and we're actually risking further inflation. I think
that what we're going to see after this election is
probably a lot of uncertainty. Remember it's not just the

(01:40):
presidential election, but both houses of Congress, and it may
take a few days to learn who's going to be president,
and it could take even longer to learn who will
control Congress. All of that will matter a lot for
how the economy is going to develop over the next
few years. A Republican sweep is viewed by a lot

(02:02):
of people. A sweep by either party really is viewed
by a lot of people as probably auguring in more deficits.
I'm not sure that's right. I think actually a Republican
sweep would lead to both lower inflation and lower deficits,
whereas if the Democrats do well, they will have more

(02:23):
or less been rewarded for driving deficits up to record
highs and driving inflation up to record highs, and so
therefore they won't ever stop. I think we will get
a resurgence of inflation if we get Democrats, not just
in the White House, but if they do well enough
that they capture one or both Houses of Congress.

Speaker 1 (02:45):
Well in terms of the Democrats taking over both Houses
of Congress, at both houses and the presidency, so give
them a clean sweep. You suggest that spending will never stop,
doesn't I know inflationary realities or dollars you print the
less value they have. Anybody with a measure of common
sense understands that. But we are on an already unsustainable path.

(03:10):
Debt service is already close to a trillion dollars annually.
That's more than we spend on defense. We do have obligations,
some would argue, maybe less than we should have, but
we have global obligations as well as obligations here. Domestically,
our social welfare safety net is collapsing and underfunded. So
how can that trajectory continue without bringing us to our

(03:32):
knees and causing our collective bankruptcy.

Speaker 2 (03:35):
John, I think there's a big problem here, and this
is one of the reasons why if the elector rewards
the Democrats and Biden and Harris in particular for having
driven up inflation with their unnecessary American Rescue plan so high,
forty year high in inflation, if that doesn't have electoral consequence,

(04:00):
I do not see why they don't do it again.
It's like, you know, if you can tell a child,
I'm very sorry, you know, I'm very upset at you
for having stolen, you know, eaten the cookies out of
the cookie jar when I told you not to. But
if there are no consequences, when the cookie jar is refilled,
the kids can will be right back in it. That
is exactly what it's going to happen with the Democrats.

(04:23):
If Kamala Harris comes in, she will see it as
a basically as a mandate for them to get back
on this Green New Deal, massive subsidy spending program, and
they are going to do it all over again.

Speaker 1 (04:40):
Well, and you know, I keep going back to the
reason why the Democrats are the fascists in spite of
what they scream with Donald Trump. But again going back
to the reality of that is this just fiddling while
the country burns, and they think they're going to outlive,
or rather that their time on this earth is going
to end before the co collapse hits, because you can't

(05:02):
sustain this kind of spending. It's just every country that's
ever gone down this road has collapsed. We've got so
many illustrations. I don't even know where to begin.

Speaker 2 (05:10):
Remember though, that they so one is they are in denial.
They still say, you know, price hikes went up. You know,
prices went up because of greed or putin or whatever.
You want to imagine anything but their program. So one,
they're a little bit in denial. But two, as institutions collapse,
the Party of big Government benefits because they use the

(05:32):
government to step in. So as we have communities fall
apart across America, that benefits the Party of big centralized government.
That and so they don't necessarily look at the collapse
as something that's bad for them. In fact, it tends
to benefit them. I'm not saying they're rooting for the

(05:52):
collapse of the United States, but they do benefit from
a lot of the things that are going to happen
between now and for their deterioration.

Speaker 1 (06:01):
Of our republic right b our financial letter to John Carney.
I just have to point out what it may be
obvious to so many people, but I still have to
say it out loud. They create the problem that causes
the collapse, and then of course we the government will
rush in with a solution that will solve the problem.
It's like the whole green thing. You know, if we
weren't worshipers at the climate cause, we wouldn't have the

(06:21):
problems we're facing right now across the board. They're the
ones that force these solutions, so called solutions upon US
windmills and solar panels that don't generate enough electricity and
also cause well geopolitical realities like helping China and China's
military build. But then they have to come to the
rescue and solve our problems with high gasoline prices, intentionally

(06:42):
high because they refuse to allow us to drill and refine.
They come in with a subsidy or tapping into the
strategic petroleum oil Reserve to soften the blow of what
they created. It's insanity, that's right.

Speaker 2 (06:55):
Look, I mean that the metaphors almost suggests themselves. It's
like a burglar who also has a home security company
on the side. He robs your house and then tells
you how much you need a home security system to
protect you, or an arsonist who is also a fireman.
They are causing the destruction that we are then that

(07:16):
they and then they come in with their solutions that
actually tend to make things worse. Look, one of the
things that we got in economic news just yesterday is
that the average age of a first time home buyer
has gone up to thirty eight because and interest rates
are so high. Think about what that means for family
formation in the United States. If you're a young couple,

(07:37):
you want to have a family. Maybe you know you
have one child, you're living in an apartment, you are
hoping to buy a house. If you have to wait
till you're thirty eight to have the savings to be
able to afford a house, this means your children, This
means more dependency on government. That is, we look at
that and say that's terrible. We need to bring that

(07:59):
back down to the normal level. It was thirty one,
thirty two, thirty three before thirty eight is basically saying
we're not going to have families in the United States.
The Democrats look at this and they say that's a feature,
not a bug.

Speaker 1 (08:12):
Well, and some folks may connect the dots with this
whole idea of the fifteen minute city and the idea
that you know, we shouldn't be had. We shouldn't own
these large homes or even modest homes out in the suburbs.
Those are bad. We have to have more commute time
causes pollution. It's unfair, it's not equitable, whatever I think
that's built into the equation. It's what they want. They

(08:33):
don't want people to have private home ownership, and if
they own something, they want it to be a tiny
little home. Hence the rezoning that's going on in all
these different cities around the country at the behest of
liberals who want to, you know, build more condensed and
apartment dwelling type housing as opposed to individual homes.

Speaker 2 (08:50):
Right. It's it's sort of hilarious. And this is a
great example of what we're talking about. We say, oh, no,
you've created a system where we can't afford home because
you drew prices and interest rates through the roof of
your inflationary policies. And they say, I have an idea.
You can live in a pod instead. Thanks right, that's
the solution. And by the way, the pod living and

(09:12):
the no children means that the government goes bankrupt even faster,
because the thing you need the most of the society
are young people to support your elderly people. When you're
not producing enough young people, your elderly people are therefore
more dependent on government than before. And that again is
part of the program. It's why that when we say

(09:35):
it's unsustainable, they say, no, it's sustainable. It just means
more government from now until the eventual We know how
this will will eventually end unless we vote correctly, right,
we have a choice. It's not inevitable. We can turn
back the tide. But if we reward what's happened over
the last four years with another four years, it becomes

(09:57):
harder and harder.

Speaker 1 (09:58):
It does. And of course the fat is these problems
and our refusal to have children as a multitude of
reasons for that justifies and supports their open borders argument,
which is, well, this is the replacement population that we
won't have. We need work there, We need workers to
do the jobs that Americans won't do. We've been convinced
that we won't do certain jobs that always blows my mind.

(10:20):
But that serves as justification for the insanity on the
southern border, in northern border.

Speaker 2 (10:26):
And actually that is another circular argument again where when
you have fewer children, then you bring in more immigrants,
that actually discourages family formation because it lowers the income
of young people because they're now competing with more young people.
So rather than having a cycle where when you had
a wave of fewer children, you then get a baby boom,

(10:47):
after that, you bring in the immigration boom, which supplants
the baby boom. Those immigrants then don't get along as
well with their friends and neighbors because they're from all
over the world, which requires more government. So it is,
you know, all these things are very very deeply connected.
You're absolutely right, And there is a you know, and

(11:07):
we're faced with a choice, right and it's very clear,
do you want more of what we saw, you know,
high prices, unrestricted, open borders, higher crime, or do you
want a economy that will promote family formation, that will
have price stability and will have secure borders, you know,

(11:31):
And frankly, that's the choice. They don't want us to
look at it. In those choices, they say These are
all separate policies, don't connect the dots, but you just
did a great job of connecting.

Speaker 1 (11:40):
This all well. Thank you. I try to apply logic
and reason to any situation, and that's where I come
down on this actually seems as obvious as you had
our conversation out loud this morning. Going back to your
initial comment, though I really must do this, John Carney Bright,
part Financial Editor, Consumer Spending, you said it's expected to ry. Now,

(12:01):
I've read any number of articles about consumers already maxing
out their credit card debts, and given the landscape of
inflationary pressures, I'm just wondering, I mean, are there that
many extra dollars around to allow consumers to increase spending
and any given moment. I know we're entering Christmas season,
which is like the biggest time we spend, but I
mean home budgets, they face the stark reality the federal

(12:23):
government doesn't have We don't have a printing press in
our home, so we've got to mind our budgets. And
you know, the weight of credit card debt is almost
insurmountable given how high the regular the credit card rates are.

Speaker 2 (12:34):
Well, I have some terrible news when you look at
the money, the amount of money in the economy, it's
actually been rising again for the last three months. I
don't think that's a coincidence that this is happening while
we're going into this election. I think they've actually turned
on the metaphorical printing presses to get more money into
the economy. And they cut interest rates in September irresponsibly,

(12:59):
one before or eight weeks before the election. So yes,
they are putting trying to put more money into the system.
And frankly, look, as long as interest rate, as long
as unemployment stays low, and it's been very low, uh,
then we will still see a lot of consumer spending

(13:20):
because people don't spend just out of money they have now,
they actually spend out of money that they expect to have.
So if they feel secure in their jobs, they will
keep spending and they will run up credit card debt.
It's unfortunate because credit card debt is very expensive right now.
And if I were, you know, if I were to
give people advice and they don't do that. But look,
it is still happening, and people are when you look

(13:43):
discretionary spending, spending on restaurants, spending on airplanes. People are
spending on things that they could choose not to. That
tells me that consumer spending is going to keep going strong.

Speaker 1 (13:54):
All right, fair enough, and one final question before we
part company. Let's us say assume, for the sake of
discussion that the Republicans sweep everything and they choose to
make good on their long standing promise to be fiscally
responsible and cut down the size and scope of government.
Do you think we have any hope of that happening?

(14:15):
With Elon Musk having some role in that, as is suggested,
may happen.

Speaker 2 (14:20):
Yes, Elon Musk came in and found that he could
fire tons of people at Twitter. He runs his other
companies very leanly. There are offices inside of every branch
of government that shouldn't even exist. Does every part of
the government need a diversity, Equity and Inclusion office? Of of
course not. So just start right away and zero those out.

(14:43):
And by the way, you have to fire all of
those people. And because if you just say eliminate the office,
they get transferred and do the same job. You actually
have to say how many people work in this department
in your agency? All right? You have to get rid
of them, and that well, I mean, look, that's not
that much money, but it will set the tone. They

(15:05):
could do that on day one with an ex second quarter.

Speaker 1 (15:07):
Well, I've been living for that day since I became
aware politically in my late high school years. It's dreams,
but let's say the dreams can come true. John Carney,
appreciate everything you do. Probly. I have one of my
listeners in Florida just chimed in instant media you are
her favorite Breitbart reporter. And I know a lot of
people feel that way very much. And Marie loves you,

(15:30):
John Carney. We love you too. On the fifty five
Carsy Morning Show, keep it the great work with Breitbart.
Tell everybody there that the fifty five Carssy Morning Show
listeners said, Hello, I'll look forward to another edition next Tuesday.
We'll be logging in John's been fun today eight twenty one.
Coming up at eight twenty two, Stick around Daniel Davis
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