Money Monday with Brian James

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
For one preset for instant access to the information that
affects you. Always on fifty five KRC the talk station.
It's Stato six here petbove Gar CD talk station. It
being Monday, it's that time of week what we do
the thing we call Monday Monday with all what financials.
Brian James financial planner he is, and he's bringing us

(00:21):
lately some bad news. Jeez, Brian, can you can you
put a smile on my face one of these weeks?
Welcome back, my friend. It's always good to have you
on the show.

Speaker 2 (00:29):
Thanks for let me join you again. I gotta ask,
do I do I give you like a negative kind
of connotation?

Speaker 3 (00:34):
Do I do it do every time we talk it
seems like it's bad anymore? Do you just think of
me in terms of sadness?

Speaker 2 (00:40):
Of course not.

Speaker 1 (00:41):
You know, it's kind of like Dave how to do
Tech Friday with Dave Hatter at six Thirday every Friday,
and he's always warning us about just the absolute land
minds that are lurking everywhere when you're online. You know,
the scammers, the hackers, folks breaking into our infrastructure, sending
you spam text that will end up taking over your
phone or stealing your data, and it's it's depressing, but
it's really important information. I mean, these are kind of

(01:03):
things we need to know. I mean, you, of course
focus towards the financial and try to get us to
have the attitude that we need to take care of
ourselves and how to do so, and how to properly
plan for our retirement and how to manage things. So
I think it's all valuable. Although you know what, negative
news gets the clicks, and that's kind of what's been
going on of late in the financial markets. I saw
that weekly jobless claims jump to two hundred and forty

(01:25):
one thousand, the latest sign of economic trouble in CNBC's headlines.
So when you file for unemployment this is for first
time filings. What does that specifically mean that the person
who is filing for unemployment has never filed for unemployment before.

Speaker 3 (01:42):
The first time, and kind of this go around there's
this is obviously complicated stuff, but yeah, this is a.

Speaker 1 (01:48):
That's kind of why I asked the question, because people
read that number and I don't think they give any
measure of thought to really what it entails or what
it means. So I kind of wanted to get a
little foundational point before we talk about the broader economic
trouble that this might portend.

Speaker 3 (02:01):
Yeah, so a first time filer is literally somebody who's
submitting a claim for the very first time during this
specified period. It distinguishes new claims from continuing claims. That's
why we have two. There's two different phrases you'll hear
whenever we talk about job as claims, first time filers
and continuing claims. So, yeah, and these happen, of course,
whenever the economy tends to slow down a little bit.
As you mentioned, we're up to two hundred and forty

(02:22):
one thousand first time filers. That's up eighteen thousand from
the week before, and the Dow Jones organization was estimating
two hundred and twenty five thousand. Remember, everything in the
financial markets, in the economic analysis has to do with
what did we think was going to happen and then
what actually happened. So a little above the estimates. But
I don't think it's a shock to anyone. Most people

(02:44):
know somebody who is directly impacted by the decisions that
our administration is currently making, which in the very short run,
here there's no way to for everyone to withstand all
of these tariffs, all these extra challenges without some kind
of reaction seeing companies say, you know what, we got
to pull in for just a little for a little bit,
and hopefully we'll make it through the other side and

(03:05):
bring everybody back on.

Speaker 2 (03:06):
But there has to be a reaction to this right now.

Speaker 1 (03:08):
So there is some connection to the tariffs and people's
dealing with the tariffs, preparing or otherwise reacting to them.
That's connected with the higher weekly job claim.

Speaker 3 (03:19):
Absolutely, because because think about it this way, a tariff is,
you know, whether we whether good, bad, or in different
a tariff is an extra outlay of cash that a
company has to start paying to keep its business going
forward any way you want to slice it. That is
the thing that's happening. So that means they might have
to be backing off on other things. So maybe there's
some some smaller product they sell or something like that

(03:40):
that's just not all that viable, and therefore they may
have to shut down that division or at least mothballet
for a little while. That costs people jobs, and they
may be looking for opportunities to save just so we
can buy some time and I've got I've got clients,
I've got some personal friends who are talking about we
need to be able to bring in parts and raw
materials from overseas. Didn't see these tariffs coming, you know,

(04:03):
last year, so we didn't exactly plan for it, right,
and we can't afford to double overnight or cost of
good soul, which is basically what's happening here. Things got
twice as expensive as they were last year. Nobody planned
for that. The ones who have the you know, who
have the deepest pockets and the best ability to weather
the storm are the ones who are going to be
here on the other side of it. But if you're

(04:23):
not in that situation, then there's a lot of pain
out there.

Speaker 1 (04:26):
Yeah, And I'm just part of me is kind of
surprised at how quickly the implementation of the tariffs have
went in and how quickly they've been implemented. It seems
to me like there will be a very very complicated
process that once you know, you declare whatever given tariff
is going to be applied, you can actually connect it
to an imported product and have that tax or that

(04:48):
tariff ode right away. That's like the peace of God.
I don't know, I don't know how they can accomplish
that and how. That's why I'm kind of shocked that
it has this immediate effect because the tariffs have only
been in place now for what six weeks or two months?

Speaker 2 (05:00):
Yeah, So a couple thoughts on that.

Speaker 3 (05:01):
I mean, first off, this administration is a more so
than any other administration in history, has been tearing band
aids off left and right. Let's just do it, make
a mass break things and then we'll move on. The
other thing, too, is remember what the market is always
trying to do, and what business people are always trying
to do is anticipate. So, yes, the tariffs have only
been in place for a short while, but we've been

(05:22):
talking about them since really since November because Trump talked
about them all through his campaign, so there's been a
whole lot lot of anticipation about it. Business has started
to rejigger and shuffle things. That's why we're seeing we're
seeing we saw a decline in the overall GDP of
the United States. It wasn't because demand fell or anything
like that. It was because businesses were holding off on

(05:44):
US based purchases of supplies and things that they need
in favor of buying a bunch of stuff that they
all they knew they would need kind of stocking up
before the tariffs hit. So we saw a much bigger
trade imbalance due to that.

Speaker 1 (05:56):
Right, And I saw an article about night Trial night
Trial gloves as surgical gloves, and there is a US
manufacturer then obviously could not compete with Chinese production because
how much cheaper it is. But it's finally getting a
whole lot more orders. So there's one business that has
benefited from this, among other businesses that were in this
article that I read about how the tariffs have helped

(06:17):
US industries in certain areas. But he said he has
a lot of customers that wouldn't do business with him
because of the price of his gloves now coming to
him and saying, hey, we need these gloves, and they're
placing orders with his company because now his price is
actually competitive with the tariff in place.

Speaker 2 (06:35):
Yeah. Now, now think of the downstream effect of that.

Speaker 3 (06:38):
So they're not these companies who are purchasing those gloves
from him, These organizations, they are not saving money themselves.
They're actually paying more than they were less. Exactly, it's
still a cost.

Speaker 2 (06:47):
Increase for them.

Speaker 3 (06:48):
So this is going to be this will do a
lot of damage with a lot of ripple effects from this,
and it's going to take a lot of wherewithal for
somebody to for organization to weather the storm.

Speaker 1 (06:56):
Well and real quick before we move on to the
next topic, and we take a break before we do that.
I've seen many articles and I'm sure you have too,
Brian James Mallworth Financial China's economy is not doing real
well and a lot of people there's been a lot
of workers protesting in the streets that haven't been paid.
And I saw most recent article US tariffs may drive
China's economy into depression. Now, whether or not that's true,

(07:20):
can you guess what that global ramification might be if
China were to actually go into a depression but that
have a profound impact or any impact on the United States?

Speaker 2 (07:30):
Well, I would.

Speaker 3 (07:31):
Everything's connected to everything, So if the United States sneezes,
everybody suffers, that's what we're you know, we're beating the
daylights out of the rest of the world. Were the
decisions that we are proactively making right now. China is
the world's second largest economy. So while while we are
in direct of somewhat violent competition with them. Economically speaking,
if if China ends up going into recession, that means

(07:53):
they will spend less money and there will be other
trade imbalances changing. There will definitely be ripple effects from that.
Because you're rooting for them or rooting against them, they
still factor into the equation. So if they're suffering and
they're not spending as much money, then that means there
are other other impacts that will happen to other countries.
There's just a great reshuffling of the decks. This is

(08:14):
again globalization as how we got here. Everybody's connected to
everybody else. So if one sneeze is everybody else gets
a cold. That's kind of how it's been for a
while now. So I would very much say that any
any effect on such a large economy, such a large
supplier of purchasing effectively, is going to have an impact.

Speaker 2 (08:31):
For sure.

Speaker 1 (08:32):
Yeah, they do buy from other countries. I mean they
we have an imbalance with China, but that is an imbalance,
not a one sided. They only we buy from them,
So I can see how that could impact us if
they're not selling their stuff because they've gone into depression.
Complicated it is, and what's what we got, Brian James.
We'll talk about consumer confidence coming up. Young workers, well

(08:55):
they have burnout and their concerned living paycheck to paychecks,
plus mind blowing starter home prices. We'll talk about those
subjects coming up with all Worth Financials Brian James. I
hope you can stick around fifty five KRC the talk
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Speaker 1 (10:09):
K eighteen fifty five r C detalk station, Happy Monday,
It's money Monday. It's Brian James pivoting over from jobless
claims to consumer confidence. Not going in the right direction
with consumer confidence, Brian James, what's the story on this one?

Speaker 2 (10:25):
Consumer confidence is down? Go figure. That's the shocker of
all shockers.

Speaker 3 (10:29):
So fell by seven point nine points last month in April,
all the way down to eighty six. This is the
fifth consecutive month of declining confidence. And honestly, if you
think about that, that coincides exactly with the election. So
I think that there was a perception out there, and
it's not that people don't support there's obviously a good
chunk of the population that supports the Trump administration in

(10:49):
the situations that they bring about. But at the same time,
logic dictates that the decisions that are happening, their decisions
that are coming out are are going to have a
short term here, and the President himself has said that
many times. So five months of declining confidences, people began
to anticipate that these kinds of things are going to
have an impact. So lots of pessimism around there, just
future business conditions, employment prospects. I'm worried about my income,

(11:13):
so on and so forth. And this is all kind
of natural. This is the part of the cycle when
we're rejiggering exactly how we present ourselves as a country
to the rest of the world. We are making it
more expensive to do business with us, that is, you know,
the administration's goal here is long term gain for some
short term pain, and so right now we're in the
middle of the short term.

Speaker 1 (11:32):
Well, we live in an immediate gratification kind of mindset
world these days. People aren't willing to wait it out
to see what happens, and if it does, we do
end up reaping the benefits that he has promised as
a consequence of these So but if real time your
job might be on the line, I can certainly understand
your confidence would go down.

Speaker 2 (11:50):
Yeah, it doesn't make sense.

Speaker 3 (11:51):
I mean, this is just a situation where people are
re examining exactly what their situations are. And as we've
talked before, businesses themselves are having to make decisions.

Speaker 2 (12:00):
I want to ensure growth through this environment.

Speaker 3 (12:02):
That means I need to maybe take a hit here
in the short run, and I have to shut down lines,
I have to lay off some people.

Speaker 2 (12:08):
I would very much prefer.

Speaker 3 (12:09):
To keep those kinds of things, but I got to
keep my nose just above water. Until we get through this,
we can kind of get back to normal. So we
are seeing some pretty steep declines in these confidence numbers,
and we'll have to see where they go over the
next few weeks. Well, and this might very well translate
over to the leading industrial indexes S and P five
hundred doubts that are I know we're down over the year,
but I mean we've had some pretty big jumps of late.

(12:32):
It's as if the market is resisting the concerns expressed
by the masses.

Speaker 2 (12:38):
Well, I remember what.

Speaker 3 (12:39):
We talked about that the market is always trying to
anticipate what's coming next. So yeah, there was a very
big boying about a month ago. We hit the Well
we're still down for the year, but the Nasdaq was
down fifteen eighteen percent at its very lowest point. Now
as we're sitting here, it's only down about seven percent.
Everything bounced in early April, and as we've talked about before,

(13:01):
if you are a diversified portfolio holder, meaning you got
a little bit of everything, you got a horse in
every race, then you're actually doing okay.

Speaker 2 (13:08):
Well.

Speaker 3 (13:08):
A lot of diversified portfolios are actually up for the year,
believe it or not, because there are other things out
there then the S and P five hundred, I'm speaking
specifically of international companies, which again are up fourteen percent
year to date. If you're somebody who abandoned everything but
the US over the past fifteen years because of how
the S and P five hundred have performed, then you
are now missing out on a more stable.

Speaker 2 (13:29):
Portfolio because of all this.

Speaker 3 (13:31):
But yes, about a month ago, things bounced back up
because the market is simply anticipating that these tariffs are
going to come and go. Eventually, cooler heads will prevail
and everybody will find their new position in all of this,
and the market will go forward. Underneath, things are relatively healthy.
There is still demand. We don't have a two thousand
and eight type situation. The economy wants to go up

(13:53):
and the market does too. We just need the fog
to clear a little bit.

Speaker 1 (13:56):
Well, and since the experts and amusing my little quote
fingers here are in the market, so the ones that
run the businesses are the ones that do the the
you know, the investment investment decisions.

Speaker 2 (14:06):
That's optimism right there.

Speaker 1 (14:08):
If they have fact with this bump in the markets,
smart people know that things are going to get better
at some point in potentially or possibly the near future.
If the markets were tanking, all these smart people are saying, no,
it's going to be it's going to hit the fan
and it's going to be terrible. So that's a little
bit of optimism built into this. If you're not even
if you're not invested in the market, well they're saying

(14:28):
things will probably be better.

Speaker 3 (14:31):
Yeah, and again I'll go back to anticipation. Those smart
people have decisions they have to make, they have to
grow their portfolios. And I'm not just talking about investment people,
that's business people in general. They're moving things around to
take advantage of what they see coming. I would remind
everybody that the back in two thousand and eight, when
you know a lot of people were invested then, and
we most most of us remember that as kind of

(14:51):
a benchmark of how scary things can be. The bottom
of that market was March ninth of two thousand and nine.
If you go back and read the headlines, Brian, you
will not see positive headlines until around June of that year.
So the headlines are always going to trail reality. The
market wants to go up, it anticipates the good news coming,
but it also makes a lot of false head starts.

Speaker 1 (15:12):
Well, and that was the other thing I was going
to say in connection with consumer confidence, I mean, try
to find a positive headline.

Speaker 4 (15:17):
In the world.

Speaker 2 (15:19):
It's it's a Sysivian challenge.

Speaker 1 (15:21):
You know, unless you look at things like you are
sort of objectively looking at the market and recognizing the
decisions that are making to keeping that have caused the
market to bounce back. That's actually a positive story built
into all of this. But everywhere you turn, it's woe's me,
and this is terrible, and Trump sucks and you know,
tariffs are killing everybody. I mean, it's just it's hard
to find a bright spot in terms of what people's

(15:42):
perception of how things are out in the world.

Speaker 2 (15:45):
But we're not the experts. Really we're just sort of
living our.

Speaker 1 (15:48):
Lives day to day, and that's you know, I think
people a lot of people are quite off and influenced by,
of course what they read, and it maybe has no
connection with necessary reality. Yeah, and that's that's why we
have to step back and look at the forest, not
the trees.

Speaker 3 (16:05):
So again that's we we focus always on financial planning.
We have to deal with this stuff. Something's got to
grow and keep up with inflation. That's going to involve
the stock market in some way, shape or form for everybody.
This is what comes along with it. So let's understand
the history and make sure we're not putting ourselves in
a bad spot with it.

Speaker 2 (16:22):
All.

Speaker 1 (16:22):
Right, Well, we'll bring buying back and find out that, well,
apparently young workers are ready to quit, burnout, pay concerns
and I don't know from what job they're in now
to what job they might take, but pay concerns driving
exodus according to the study fines analysis, we're gonna hear
about that. Plus, thank god you don't live in one
of a multitude of California cities. The price of starter

(16:44):
homes has just gone through the roof. But that's just
not happening in California. It's happening all over. We'll get
a little bit on that from Brian James as well.
One more with money Monday, All with Financial Brian James.

Speaker 2 (16:54):
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With the forecasts, we're gonna have a cloudy day to
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Seventy five for the high on Wednesday with cloudy sky's
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Speaker 2 (17:49):
See the talk station Hey, twenty.

Speaker 1 (17:52):
Eight fifty five car c detalk station Hey, Very Happy
Monday too. One more segment with all Worth Financials. Brian James. Brian,
young workers are burned out. I just kind of laugh
at that. I remember when I first started practicing litigation,
you know, twelve hour days, six days a week, and
we did it year after year after year, and I honestly,

(18:14):
while I might have complained at the time, I wasn't
going to quit over it. Anyway. What's the story on
this when Brian.

Speaker 3 (18:21):
James, seventy three percent of gen Z and seventy percent
millennials are actively looking to change jobs. In other words,
three out of every four of those young people sitting
next to you are sniffing around. And this is coming
from just overall frustration with the job, burnout feelings, and
just an overall monotony of the work and so forth. Different, Yeah,

(18:43):
a little bit of monotony. They're not super excited about
the day to day, you know, as much.

Speaker 2 (18:47):
As they're older.

Speaker 1 (18:48):
Okay, so it's a question of lacking intellectual stimulation or satisfy.

Speaker 2 (18:54):
It's not.

Speaker 1 (18:55):
I mean, I know, we got a pay element on
this before we get to the living paycheck to paycheck component,
but they would be satisfied in so far as their salary.
But they're just tired of doing what they're doing.

Speaker 3 (19:06):
Yeah, And I think there's another element I heard that.
I think there's another element to this. It's not even
mentioned in the article. And I'm speaking as i'd speak
to my clients. I'd always tell them that they their
kids are my clients too, So I'll talk to anybody
about anything. And the impression that I get from them
is that they feel that the hill is so much steeper.
We all got to push a rock up a hill
to get to retirement. They feel their hill is a

(19:27):
lot steeper because they're not going to have you know,
they they're they're bombarded with the fact that social security
is going to go away. It's not, but there's still
the mental component that they're that socicurity might take a hit,
that things are more expensive, inflation and all of this,
and they're they're among some of them, there's a feeling
of hopelessness. Why does it matter that I have that
I want to grind because I'm not going to be
able to afford it anyway. The deck is so stacked

(19:48):
against me. That doesn't mean they've done the math to
analyze it, but that's the drum beat that's out there again.
Because of social media they have, they have a lot
more to contend with in terms of the loudness of
all of their.

Speaker 1 (19:58):
You you know, I back of my mind immediately started
thinking of the seventies and stagflation. Things were not pretty
in this country at all, and a lot worse than
they are right now. But we've had so many decades
of without I mean, there's been bumps in the road,
as you've pointed out many times, like you know, the
tech bubble burst and the housing bubble burst, but you
know for the last several decades, and we've had nothing

(20:20):
but you know, rainbows and puppy puppies. It's just it's
been really overall a great environment. They haven't seen it,
Kane before.

Speaker 3 (20:31):
Yeah, and well everything negative gets amplified.

Speaker 2 (20:34):
Yeah. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (20:35):
So I was talking to my son and he was
explaining to me how relationships work nowadays. You can't break
up with someone because they never go away. You see
them on social media, you see how they're linked, you
see what they're talking about, all of this stuff. This
is a much different environment than any of these other
generations have had to contend with.

Speaker 2 (20:51):
And I kind of got what he was saying. And
it's scary out there.

Speaker 3 (20:54):
And you attach that to trying to raise a family,
start your career and all that. You get surrounded by, Oh,
so and so is doing so much better than you.
So and so just bought this house. Everybody's happy, wonderful.
What's wrong with you?

Speaker 2 (21:05):
Right? You can't get away from that and focus on
your job now.

Speaker 1 (21:08):
And I think every generation has struggled with some component
of what you just said before. And I think you
just try to focus on your own life and quit
comparing yourself to the Joneses. We don't all live at
a different level, and we all live at different levels,
and thus it has ever been But back to the
paycheck to paycheck component. I suppose that will be a
little disheartening if you can't save any money at all. Yeah,

(21:29):
and that's another three quarters of people.

Speaker 3 (21:30):
Seventy four percent of employees say they're living paycheck to paycheck,
which simply means that I get paid and I pay
my bills and the checking account goes back down to zero.
I can't make any headway. I can't save money to
take the family on a vacation. I can't work on
paying my mortgage down faster. I can't bump up my
four oh one K percentage contribution. I just feel like
I'm stuck in the mud. And then that leads to this,
is there another opportunity out there? What should I be doing?

(21:53):
Can I Can I put myself in a better spot?
Or it leads to quiet quitting and just kind of
hanging it up and doing the bare minimum.

Speaker 1 (22:01):
Okay, pivoting over one of the reasons people are a
living in paycheck to paycheck. I couldn't believe the numbers
on this one, Brian James. Starter homes top one million
dollars in two hundred and thirty three cities. That's doubled
since since am I sorry it was eighty five cities
that had that price in twenty twenty. This is amazing.

Speaker 3 (22:20):
Yeah, so five years ago only eighty five cities had
a median start These are starter homes, right, So the
typical starter home now costs a million dollars or more
in two hundred and thirty some areas.

Speaker 2 (22:29):
Now, this is not affecting Cincinnati. We're still we've got
a booming real estate market.

Speaker 3 (22:33):
But starter homes around here about a quarter million dollars so,
which is still a relative to our local environment. That
still has an impact, of course, But this is this
is highlighting the affordability crisis in the housing market. And
this is another thing I can't like we just got
done talking about I'm unhappy with my job. I don't
get paid enough. Why am I bothering to do all this?
I just can't make things go. And part of this

(22:55):
can be because of the mortgage payment that stares somebody
in the face on the first of every month.

Speaker 1 (22:58):
That in when they re assess your property taxes and
it jumps sixty three percent, and you're not prepared for
that kind of hit like Claremont County and other counties
have struggled with. You know, it's a little disheartening, to
say the least. Although the bright spot in this is
thank god we don't live in California. He already gave
props to the City of Cincinnati for hiving much lower
than a million dollars one hundred and thirteen of these

(23:19):
two hundred and thirty three cities are in California. That
speaks volumes, New New York, New Jersey right behind. To me,
none of this is a shock because these are the
places we always hear about is being more expensive with
regard to real estate. So this is also revealing that
the United States is short by about four and a
half million homes. In other words, if we had four
and a half million more homes available for purchase, the

(23:41):
purchase price would be down closer to a normal level.
That's why you're still seeing subdivisions. We live up here
in Butler County's new subdivision going up in a cornfield
every other week. It seems like we've got some catching
up to do. The builders are certainly doing their part
to put them out there, but we haven't gotten a
point yet where it has truly made an impact on
the price of a starter home. Well, and I imagine

(24:02):
those brand new subdivision homes probably a little more pricey
than you know, the two hundred and fifty thousand figure
you just mentioned, which means someone is going to be
moving from maybe a starter home and buying one of
the newer homes out in the subdivisions, which will free
up some of these more affordable starter homes for the
for the people. Yeah, the United States to a profit margin.

(24:22):
That's where I live.

Speaker 3 (24:22):
So those builders are building the type of homes off
of which they can make the most profit, and unfortunately
that doesn't tend to be that starter home.

Speaker 2 (24:29):
No.

Speaker 1 (24:29):
I see the fixed rate mortgage. That rate dipped a
little bit to six point eight one percent last week,
which was previously seven point one seven So that's going
in the right direction. Any before we part company, Brian James,
any tea lea freading on the direction that's going to go.

Speaker 3 (24:43):
Well, we need to see exactly what's going to be
happening here with the rest of the economy, you know,
we we it's pretty clear out there that the President
would very much like mister Jerome Powell to start cutting
rates yesterday, but that is not happen and it does
not appear likely. There is a meeting this week, but
there is zero chance that we're going to see a
rad cut out of this one. So I wouldn't look
for movement there anytime soon.

Speaker 1 (25:04):
All Right, we'll write it through as we always do.
Brian James Alworth Financial Camp. Thank you though for the
time he spoke my listeners me every Monday. Look forward
to another conversation next week. Have a great week, Happy Monday.
Talk to you in seven days. Stick around, folks, got
more to talk about. We'll also open the phone lines
up with this is the subject you want to bring up?
Happy to talk about? At five one, three, seven, four,
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three talk pound five fifty on AT and T phones.

(25:25):
It's eight thirty six. I'll be right back.

Speaker 3 (25:27):
This is fifty five KRC an iHeartRadio station.

Speaker 4 (25:30):
Andy and