Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Two five KRC.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Tonight, the story in the midst of all of this
market volatility that isn't getting too much attention, But maybe
you should be paying attention to if you're listening to
Simply Money presented by All Word Financial I Memi Wagner
along with Bob's spondseller. For the past couple of weeks,
the whole world has been focused on Tariff's Wall Street's
reaction to them. We've had wild swings, we've seen crazy headlines,
(00:30):
but there is something going on a little bit maybe
beneath the surface, that maybe you're not paying attention to
as an investor. Bob, I know you're super humble, but
I'm going to give you some credit here. You have
been saying this whole time, you are keeping a close
eye on the bond market.
Speaker 3 (00:49):
Talk about why that is.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
Well.
Speaker 4 (00:51):
One reason, thank you, Amy.
Speaker 5 (00:53):
One reason why that is is the United States has
to refinance. As I think we all know, or most
of us know, you worth thirty six trillion dollars in debts.
Speaker 4 (01:02):
We've got some debts in this country.
Speaker 5 (01:05):
And you know the dirty little secret here is seven
trillion of that thirty six trillion has to be refinanced
in some way, shape or form during twenty twenty five.
And historically, you know, China has bought a lot of
our debt, Japan has bought a lot of our debts.
So in the midst of all this tariff talk and
negotiation behind the scenes with the president and these various countries,
(01:28):
I mean, don't you know bond yields in the in
the purchase of bonds is a factor in all this,
especially when you're talking about China. So the interesting thing
over the last couple of weeks, as most people have
just been focused on the gyration up and down in
the stock market, there's been a little movement in the
ten year treasury bond and the bond market in general
(01:50):
over the last week as well, And I think that'll
be a part of this ongoing negotiation, you know, going
on with these various countries, especially China.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
I want to go to investing one oh one right now.
Just a reminder, you know, if you own stocks, right
most of us do invest in our flow and k
that's ownership, part ownership of a company. On the flip
side the bond market, if you own bonds, you're loaning
your money, and in this case, what we're talking about
is to the federal government, which is considered one of
(02:21):
the safest investments that you can make. Right the tenure treasury,
you're loaning your money to the government and assuming you know,
if it's a ten year treasury that ten years later
you'll get back a certain amount of interest on that
bond when it comes to maturity. Now, I think there's
so much kind of misunderstanding about what bonds are. But
(02:44):
when we talk about having a diversified portfolio, one of
the things that we're talking about within your asset allocation
is that you own both stocks and bonds, And I
think it depends on your individual situation how much of
each you should own, but we often refer to the
bond portion of it as the shock absorbers. You know,
you were making Bob an excellent point for those who
(03:07):
like I just can't wrap my head around bonds.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
There's a lot of similarities to CDs.
Speaker 4 (03:14):
Yes, and the different Yeah.
Speaker 5 (03:16):
What when you buy a CD, you're loaning your money
to a bank, and I think everybody can understand this concept.
You know, when you go buy a three year CD
at the bank, everybody knows what they're getting. You know,
you give the bank the fifty grand, one hundred grand,
ten grand and say, hey, I know what my interest
rate's going to be for the next three years, I'm
going to get interest and at the end of that
term of time, I'm going to get all my money back.
(03:39):
Really easy to understand what people don't understand. You know,
if you go look at how the proverbial sausage is
being made in the background, the price of that CD
if you go to sell it before maturity, it's fluctuating
every day in the market based on the movement of
interest rates.
Speaker 4 (03:55):
The same thing happens with bonds.
Speaker 5 (03:58):
When we have clients in a bond portfolio and they
look and they pull up their account online, you're going
to get a real day to day price update on
those bonds. Even though if you hold the bond to maturity,
which is what most people do in the portfolio, it
doesn't matter. Yes, the volatility is, you know, not immaterial. Yeah,
(04:21):
And I think that's a hard concept for people to understand.
The other hard concept is the price of bonds moves
inversely to the direction of interest rates. Most people think, hey,
interest rates go up, that's a good thing because I'm
getting more money, you know, on my bonds, Well, the
price of that existing bonds dropped because the person buying
(04:44):
a bond today is going to get a higher rate.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
You can get more money and more an interest off
of a newer bond than the one that you own.
Speaker 5 (04:50):
So all that can get a little bit confusing, and
that's why you know you hear the birth the term
laddered bond portfolio. That's where folks like Andy Stout and
his team are Chief investor officer here at all Worth
build and monitor long term laddered bond portfolios for our clients.
So you've got a little bit of everything in terms
of diversification. Diversification on the time horizon of your bond,
(05:15):
diversification on who you're lending your money to, whether that's
the federal government, a municipality, a corporation. You build a
nice layer diversified portfolio of bonds, and over time that
does cushion volatility of the of the portfolio and helps
bonds do what they're meant to do. As you said, Amy,
do two things. Provide some regular interest and cash flow
(05:39):
and be a cushioning mechanism against stock market volatility.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
You're listening to simply money and presented by all Worth Financial,
I mean you Wagner along with Bob Sponseler. You know, Bob,
you're talking about the fact that what bonds are supposed
to do. In twenty twenty two, we did have this
weird situation where the stock market and the bond market
was down at the same time, you know. So I
think there's maybe some investors out there who are like, oh,
(06:03):
if we saw some volatility in the bond market recently,
does that mean that we're going to experience long term
volatility here? And maybe is the bond market not able
to hold up its end of the deal right now?
Speaker 5 (06:18):
And that all remains to be seen, you know, dependent
on what happens with this tariff policy. You know, whether
some of these tariffs take hold and stay in place
for the long term. Folks are saying that can be
inflationary and that can raise long term interest rates. On
the flip side, it can also be recessionary, and you
put the economy into a recession. The FED will typically
(06:41):
drop rates if we start to see high unemployment and
things like that. So that's why people are paying attention
to the bond market. I will just say, at least
at this point in time, amy. The bond market this
year is nothing close to what we saw in twenty
twenty two. The Federal Reserve raised interest straight seven times
during that year, and that's why we had the aggregate
(07:04):
bond indecks.
Speaker 4 (07:05):
Down in the mid teams.
Speaker 5 (07:06):
Yeah, this year, as a Friday of last week, the
bond market's up a little over one percent. Now, we
did see you know, a year, a month, a week,
I'm sorry, prior to that, we were up almost three percent.
So we did see the aggregate bond index pull back
about two percent last week. And for reasons I think
(07:28):
I'd like to understand. I think a lot of that
has to do with some of this ongoing tariff discussion
and who's going to be buying our debt in the
short term here. If China decides to say, well, you
want to play with us in this way, we're not
going to buy your debt anymore. You got to go
find a new buyer for your debt. And that's what
makes the bond market a little bit nervous here in
the short term.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
Well, and I.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
Think the question was during that week where we saw that,
you know, that decline, the selloff right in the bond
market is is is it not the police of safety
that it's always supposed to have been. And I appreciate
the fact that you're saying, listen, as a long term investor,
the bond portion of your portfolio, like is not really
(08:13):
subject to the daily fluctuations, Like this is immaterial to you.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
You know, so it's important to understand.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
You were in my office earlier, I googled the bond
market and there are headlines all over the place talking
about it. So we felt like, hey, it's important to
tell you and to give you the context of how
we look at this, and that's you need to understand
how the bond market works. You need to understand how
it works within your investment portfolio as a long term investor,
(08:42):
and then you need to understand why people are talking
about this right now and does it impact you.
Speaker 5 (08:47):
Yeah, the bond market can be volatile, and it was
last week, Yeah, and it moved. Bonds moved inversely to stocks.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
Last week.
Speaker 5 (08:53):
We got a nice little recovery short term in the
stock market, but meanwhile the bond market went down a
little bit.
Speaker 4 (09:00):
Now, Historically, you know, the level.
Speaker 5 (09:03):
Of volatility in bonds pales in comparison to the volatility
in stocks, but they will move around. Bonds are priced daily,
and we already tried to give that CD analogy. The
important thing is don't get caught up on it every
single day, because, again to the point you just made amy,
(09:24):
if you hold the bonds to maturity, you get your
money back, just like you do with a CD, and
you don't have to worry about this daily fluctuation.
Speaker 6 (09:32):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (09:33):
Yeah, I just think there's so much confusion over Wait
a second, it was this yesterday and now I'm looking
at it today and it's this amount. What does this
mean for me in those daily fluctuations? Again, for your
long term investor, really shouldn't mean anything.
Speaker 3 (09:45):
In fact, if you've.
Speaker 2 (09:47):
Done the work before we've gotten to these places of volatility.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
You should have stress tested your.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Portfolio, and that's running your particular investment allocation.
Speaker 3 (09:59):
Your You know how.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
You're invested through a series of scenarios, hopefully a lot
of them similar to what we're going through right now,
and say, what would the impact of exactly how I'm
invested be in times of volatility like this? Then you
step back from what you're seeing and you say, can
I handle that? Can I sleep at night?
Speaker 1 (10:18):
Still?
Speaker 3 (10:18):
If the answer is no, you should have already made.
Speaker 5 (10:21):
Some moves, that's right, And it is extremely difficult for
anyone to predict the short term movement of interest rates,
and it's very dangerous at times to make big bets
on that, and.
Speaker 4 (10:32):
I think that's why we even try.
Speaker 5 (10:34):
No, and that's another reason why I think we saw
some volatility last week. There was some unwinding of hedge
fund positions and leverage bond trades, and when those people
have to unwind those positions in the short term, that's
going to create some volatility. But again back to your point, Amy,
this is why we've got a diversified portfolio for our
clients in place, and you diversify based on who you're
(10:57):
lending your money to governments, local governments, federal government companies,
as well as the duration and the maturity dates on
those bonds, and that helps you ride through periods like
this without a ton of volatility.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
We work with a lot of smart, well educated investors here.
I think we are really lucky. But I have had
some people in my office recently. I wouldn't even say
they're nervous, but when we run through their plan and
we look at their numbers, right, they're spending, what's coming in,
how their investments are allocated, and we then run it
through the Monte Carlo right, all of the different scenarios,
(11:34):
markets up, markets down, and then we make projections about
where they'll be when they're in their nineties and beyond.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
It's just deep breath. It's like, oh, okay, yeah, we're good.
We're good.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
And so this is why you build your plan. This
is why you make sure you've got the right asset allocation.
This is why you stress tested. It may seem like
a boring endeavor when markets are only going up, but
during times like this, I'm telling you it is time
well spent.
Speaker 3 (11:59):
Here's the all Worth of advice.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
A good stress test portfolio should be able to weather
any storm, including volatility in the stock market and also
in the bond market, and it's really important to understand
the role of both within your investments. Coming up next,
the most ridiculous financial headlines that were just plain wrong.
You're listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial.
(12:21):
Here in fifty five KRC, the talk station Addie.
Speaker 8 (12:24):
Make us the number one pre sent on your car
radio and on the free new and improved iHeartRadio app.
Free never sounded so good. Fifty five KRC The Talk Station.
Speaker 9 (12:33):
All Worth Financial a registered investment advisory firm. Any ideas
presented during this program are not intended to provide specific
financial advice. You should consult your own financial advisor, tax consultant,
or a state planning attorney to conduct your own due diligence.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
You're listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial
and Meani Wagner along with Bob Sponseller. If you can't
listen to our show every night, you don't have to
miss a thing we talk. We have adeently podcast where
you just search Simply Money. It's on the iHeart app
or wherever you get your podcasts. Coming up at six
forty three. You've got a lot of great questions about
estate planning strategies, and a lot more in our Ask
(13:15):
the Advisor segment.
Speaker 3 (13:16):
We'll get to all that in just a few minutes.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
One of the things Bob, that we do on the show,
I think that it's different from where you get elsewhere,
is we rip apart. Some headlines that you might come
across that might give you pause, freak you out, give
you major anxiety if you don't have kind of some
historical perspective.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
But I think what.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
We're going to do now is even more of a
treat because it's not just hey, here's some recent headlines.
It is going back decades in talking about some of
the headlines that people actually came across they could have
totally derailed their money. And I think this perspective might
help you kind of the next time you come across one.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
Of these things and it gives you a little heartburn.
Speaker 5 (14:00):
It's a great reminder amy that so much of the
media is built to instill fear and greed in people,
so that we click on the articles and we get
emotionally charged up by them. Here here's a good one
back from nineteen twenty nine in the New York Times
quote stocks have reached a permanently high plateau. Pretty bold
(14:20):
statement about how the stock market would continue to rise forever.
And we all know what happened shortly thereafter in nineteen
twenty nine.
Speaker 3 (14:30):
What could possibly go wrong?
Speaker 4 (14:32):
What can possibly go wrong?
Speaker 2 (14:33):
Meanwhile, what we know now is there was so many
factors behind the scenes, people being over leveraged, all kinds
of things that were slowly silently behind the headlines, leading
everything to what set our country back financially for over
a decade.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
Right, when I come across people who lived through.
Speaker 2 (14:56):
The Great Depression, their approach to money isn't entirely different
from everyone else. Is because these are formative years and
it shook them to their core. Standing in line to
wait for bread in food like this was a devastating
time financially. And again nineteen twenty nine, right just on
(15:17):
the cusp of this, everyone thought it was smooth sailing well.
Speaker 5 (15:20):
And that's why you have a lot of people in
their eighties who are living in small Cape Cod paid
off houses that are worth six seven million dollars driving a.
Speaker 4 (15:31):
Fifteen year old sedan.
Speaker 5 (15:33):
They remember the Great Depression, and you know they adjusted
their life accordingly. Here's another headline back from nineteen sixty six.
The Dow hits one thousand.
Speaker 4 (15:45):
This is the end of the line.
Speaker 2 (15:49):
So many times people will refer to the Dow and
they'll talk about how many points up or down it is, right,
and it can sound scary. In the reminder we always
give you is, hey, what's the percentage. What's the percentage
that it's up or down at any given point. That's
what you need to focus on. The Dow hitting one
thousand back in nineteen sixty six, this is the end
(16:10):
of the line.
Speaker 3 (16:10):
It can't possibly go further. We all know how that
has played out and continues to play.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Out, right, And so I think you know, the reminder
here is you've got to focus on what's really important.
It's not points, it's the percentage that it's up or down.
And listen, and any given day it could be up,
it's going to be down, one never knows. But over time,
what you have to count on is more up days
in the market than down days.
Speaker 3 (16:35):
And that's how.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
You slowly build wealth. Right time in the market, not
timing the market.
Speaker 5 (16:41):
Yeah, I mean the market should be hitting all time
highs on a fairly regular basis. That means we have
a growing economy. That's how it's supposed to work. Yep,
they're going to be ebbs and flows in between. But
calling a all time market high is ridiculous. Yeah, how
about this one amy In two thousand, the Wall Street
(17:02):
Journal declares the tech boom is over. You know, all
tech stocks are nothing but a fad. The whole thing's
going to blow up. Obviously, the market did blow up.
This was the first big bear market I experienced. As
an advisor, and it was severe and it certainly had
people nervous. Not making light of that at all. But
(17:22):
to declare technology a fad was, you know, obviously overstated.
Speaker 3 (17:28):
Somewhat short sighted.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
I think you've got to remember kind of the thought
process during that time.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
You could do Amy and Bob dot Com.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
And we could have zero financial plan whatsoever, and people
were going to invest because there was dot Com at
the end of that company name.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
In many of these companies were just not fundamentally sound.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
It was a bit of a house of cards and
that house of cards fell down. Does that mean that
there was no future for technology? Well, we all know
how this played out. Fast forward to Apple to Amazon
to Meta. I mean, these are these large companies that
have moved the markets over the past couple of years.
You know, I think maybe technology got a little bit
(18:11):
ahead of itself when it came to during that time.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
Do I still think that these big, large companies will
continue to innovate? Yes, yeah, I do.
Speaker 10 (18:19):
I do.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
Am I going to go all in on the tech sector?
Absolutely not right. We've learned this lesson.
Speaker 5 (18:25):
Well on the same thing could be said about AI
stocks today.
Speaker 4 (18:28):
I mean, it's an emerging new technology.
Speaker 5 (18:31):
It's going to impact the economy, we hope in a
very positive way. But there's going to be winners and
losers in this space. And you can't just say, hey,
I'm going to buy anything with AI next week's name,
Because to your last point, some of these companies have
earnings and growing earnings, and some of them have no
earnings and no prospect of ever having any earnings and
(18:53):
a depleting balance sheet at the same time. So with
new innovation and new companies comes opper trinity, but also
comes a lot of potential short term volatility.
Speaker 2 (19:04):
Yeah, here's another great headline from nineteen ninety five, the
end of the Internet just a fad.
Speaker 3 (19:11):
It was recently telling my daughter.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
In nineteen ninety five, I was a freshman at the
University of Kentucky.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
We had to leave our dorm and go to.
Speaker 2 (19:21):
The Chemphis building on UK's campus to check our email.
Do you realize how crazy that sounds to our children now,
who are picking out their phones out of their pockets.
Speaker 3 (19:30):
And they've got email and text messages.
Speaker 2 (19:33):
You know, will these companies will continue to evolve and
to innovate.
Speaker 3 (19:38):
I think calling anything just a fad, does it make sense.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
I think the key here is to proper diversify yourself.
Speaker 4 (19:45):
Amy.
Speaker 5 (19:46):
I'm going to date myself a bit here. You might
get a chuckle out of this, But I got in
this business in nineteen ninety one, and it was literally
that year where they started to put personal computers on
people's desks hooked up to the inner I used to
just stare at that screen at all the scrolling advertisements,
and I'm like, this is awesome, you know, just to
(20:07):
have that on my desktop. I'm one of those old
people that got introduced to the internet.
Speaker 3 (20:12):
Here's the old Worth advice.
Speaker 2 (20:13):
Next time you see a headline just screaming at you
about what it thinks is going to happen in the
future of the market, take it with a grain of salt.
Coming up next, how's your career going? Is it time
to pivot, exit or double down? We're going to get
into that nextual. Listening to Simply Money presented by all
Worth Financial. Here in fifty five KRC the talk station.
Speaker 3 (20:33):
Driver an iHeartRadio station. You're listening to Simply Money.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
You're presented by all Worth Financial, I Memi Wagner along
with Bob spawn Seller. Do you feel like maybe you're
at a career crossroads right now, like, do you keep
on the path that you've always been?
Speaker 4 (20:55):
Can?
Speaker 3 (20:55):
Can you pivots? What are your options? Joining us tonight
is our ex bard and everything to do with your
job Julie on the job, Julie Balki.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
You know, I think the options when you get to
a career crossroads, you know, do you pivot?
Speaker 3 (21:09):
Do you exit to double down? And how do you
even know?
Speaker 10 (21:14):
So the first thing let's do, let's normalize that you
will have multiple career crossroads in your career and versus
you pick one job when you're twenty two and hang
on for dear life for forty plus years. You know,
it's it is healthy and normal to come to those
moments where you say, am I doing what I want
(21:35):
to do? Do I want to do something completely different?
Do I just want to make a slight pivot? And
I call that different chapters of your career. So we're
very comfortable using them more different chapters of life. But
I'm just such a fan of your career should be
lived in chapters as well, and so anytime you start
(21:56):
to have those feelings, it's really really don't stuff them down.
It's it's really worth examining why am I feeling this way,
what's working, what isn't blah blah blah, and then what
do I do about it? And the trick here is
you've got to be willing to do something about it.
Speaker 5 (22:10):
Amy as you talk about that, I think of some
of the articles I read that predict, you know, the
average person's going to have nine to twelve career or
job changes throughout their career, you know, people that are
young right now. And then I compare that to people
in their seventies and eighties. The people that worked at
one company for thirty five forty years got the gold watch,
(22:30):
got the pension. Is somewhere in the middle what reality
should be, you know, meaning if you're if you if
you're changing jobs and careers nine to twelve times, are
you maybe a little impatient or is that just the
way things have evolved, you know, in the economy these days.
Speaker 10 (22:48):
So let's say the numbers nine. It's reasonable to think
that at least half of that number will be involuntary changes,
the companies having layoffs. Companies may outsourcing what your department does.
And so when you look at how many times people
will get laid off in their career if they start
(23:08):
in the workforce today. If I had to, let's just say,
laid off or let go for some reason, for any reason,
If I just had to pick a number out of
the sky, it'd probably be I'd say, in probably four
or five times, you're going to be presented with the
opportunity to find your life's work elsewhere. And then there
are going to be those times when it becomes evident
(23:32):
to you that it's time for you to initiate that.
And so it's going to be that combination. But so
instead of just hoping it doesn't happen to you, and
we need to learn the skills of self reflection, of discernment,
of getting getting into action and changing jobs because believe me,
(23:55):
it's a lot more pleasant when you make that choice
actively instead of having it done to you.
Speaker 4 (24:02):
So we need to we need to doge proof our
career and resume.
Speaker 11 (24:06):
Is that what you're saying, Well, you know, I you know,
I don't. I don't know if there that's even possible.
You know, you can, as I think a lot of
our friends in the Washington area would tell us, you
can be doing a great job and you can be
at risk for a variety of reasons, and it could
it could feel very arbitrary, or it could be very
(24:28):
Look we what you got, what this team does, we
are outsourcing it.
Speaker 3 (24:32):
To a team in India.
Speaker 10 (24:33):
So now you need to go find something else. And
so the ability to be resilient in your career and
to reskill or upskill or decide to do something else,
you have to learn to invest in and take a
chance on yourself instead of waiting for an employer to
really be the one that controls your controls your career.
Speaker 2 (24:53):
So pivot, exit or double down, right, Julie Valki, Julian
the job joining us tonight to help us figure this out.
Speaker 3 (24:59):
You know, Julie, you may an excellent point.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
Of course, sometimes we don't have a choice in this
and we're shoved into this change. But if you are
someone who's maybe just started to feel an itch or
you used to love what you did and it's just
not as enjoyable anymore, how do you think through does
it make sense to change and where would you even
start looking? I think it can be overwhelming for a
(25:22):
lot of people to think about making a change proactively
mid career, because that can be really scary.
Speaker 10 (25:31):
Yeah, and So the first thing you have to do
is look inward and assess why am I feeling this way?
Am I feeling this way because I'm bored? Maybe I've
been doing it for a long time and it's fine,
but you know, I believe I could you know, I
could do something else or use my talents and skills differently.
Or is it because something has changed at work? Maybe
you have a new leader that you don't quite get
(25:52):
along with, or maybe it's something you're dealing with at
home that really is rippling into work. So you've got
to be really good at pinning those things down.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
What is it?
Speaker 10 (26:03):
Is it the job itself? Is it you know, do
you not like it anymore or you burn out? Or
have you been put in a role that you don't
feel confident and qualified for? Or is it it's a
return to the office thing and that has really up
ended your life and you can't do that. Or is
it a leadership for cultures? So you've got to look
at what's the primary reason why I'm feeling this way,
(26:24):
And then the next question is is this something that's
under my control? And if it's a leadership change and
your report and you work in a really small company,
and that's you don't have the opportunity to move into
a different department, then you've got to figure out it
may be time to leave. If it's that you really
like the company you work for and you really like
(26:44):
the leadership and you believe in the mission, but you're
getting bored in your job, that might be something you
could have a conversation about. So you've got to diagnose
the problem before you can figure out if it's in
your control, and if it isn't. If you try everything
and say, you know what, it's just time for me
to move on whatever reason, then the next step is
figuring out, like getting in your car and opening up
(27:07):
Google Maps and putting the destination, and you have to
start figuring out, given what's unsatisfactory about where you are now,
what does satisfactory look like? What? In other words, what
do I want to move toward? More of this, less
of this, et cetera. And it's really, really and this
is why we exist. It's hard to do it for
yourself because we don't I find it normally, we don't
(27:31):
give ourselves enough credit for all the things we're good at.
Where most of us are instead of being having a
self having a overinflated sense of what we're capable of.
It's generally underinflated. And that's I mean, that's what we do.
We help people figure that out and then put a
(27:52):
plan together to go get it. But if you're stuck
in the if you're stuck in the who else would
hire me? This is all I know. I'm over fifty,
I'm too old. If you start any of that thinking,
then you're really relegating yourself to just several more years
of being miserable. And frankly, when you're miserable at work,
(28:16):
it's very, very hard to be pleasant in other areas
of your life because the line between work and home
is gone.
Speaker 3 (28:22):
At this point, Julie quickly, we have about a minute left.
Speaker 2 (28:27):
You know, for someone who is in this place, you
kind of refer to this. But you and I have
done this together in the past, making lists what do
I want to do more of? What do I want
to do less of? And I think putting it on
paper can be incredibly I opening of, Oh, maybe here's
the solution, and maybe it's already within the company that
(28:48):
I'm working.
Speaker 3 (28:49):
It's just a slight pivot.
Speaker 10 (28:51):
Right exactly, that's right. Once you figure out. So the
process we walk people through is we'll say, okay, what's
not working and what do you want? So we help you,
We'll figure out you pull yourself away from your employer
and say, okay, what do I really want? The next
question then is can I get it where I am?
And if the answer is yes, then you start to
(29:13):
have conversations where you're very clear about what you want,
more of, less of, et cetera. But sometimes the answer
is no. And so at that point you are at
a crossroads where you say, well, I either need to
I believe everybody deserves to be happy at work, So.
Speaker 3 (29:30):
Maybe it's making a jump, right, that could be the
best thing.
Speaker 2 (29:34):
You've got to ask yourself courage, but you've got to ask.
Speaker 3 (29:37):
Yourself questions first.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
Yeah, Julie Bauki, Julie on the job, Thank you so much,
great insights. You're listening to something money presented by all
Worth Financial here in fifty five krs the talk station.
Speaker 1 (29:48):
You're about it. You're on the tense yard line of peace.
We're getting close. Talk about it. I'll believe it when
it is clearly a psychopathion.
Speaker 6 (29:57):
Why is any here explaining call it?
Speaker 5 (30:00):
Thank you?
Speaker 1 (30:01):
I love hearing the Democrats for news. We've been ripped
off as a country for many, many.
Speaker 6 (30:06):
Years, and your views are trillion guests, How can.
Speaker 9 (30:12):
Terriffs be effective if they're hurting both countries?
Speaker 3 (30:15):
Am I on the air?
Speaker 1 (30:16):
Fifty five KRC the talk station?
Speaker 10 (30:20):
Are you rumber?
Speaker 8 (30:21):
One pre said on your car radio and on the
free new and improved iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 1 (30:25):
Free never sounded so good?
Speaker 8 (30:27):
Fifty five KRC the talk station.
Speaker 3 (30:34):
You're listening to Simply Money presented by all Worth Financial.
Speaker 2 (30:36):
I mean you Wagner alone with Bob spawn sell or,
do you have a financial question you need a little
help with. There's a red button you can click on
while you're listening to the show right there on the
iHeart app. Record your question. It's coming straight to us,
and it is time to ask the advisor some of
your questions. First one is from Chris and Mason.
Speaker 4 (30:52):
Should I invest one hundred percent in stocks? If I
plan on handing my portfolio over to my children? I
don't need the money.
Speaker 5 (30:59):
Well, Chris just going off the question, and I'm a
literal kind of guy, so I'm just reading the question.
If this is truly money that you never intend to
spend and it's a long term time horizon, and you're
going to live another fifteen, twenty thirty years and then
hand these stop the portfolio over to your children. By
all means, take advantage of capital gains, growth in the market,
(31:22):
stepped up cost bases at death. It's a wonderful way
to leave assets you know to your children and grow
them while you're still alive.
Speaker 4 (31:30):
I say, go for it, but be diversified. Be diversified,
don't put it all in deep seek.
Speaker 2 (31:36):
One of the number one conversations or first conversations I
have when I'm working with someone is what's your goal
for your money? Do you want your last check to
bounce or do you want your kids to get this money.
If the goal is, hey, we've got enough that we're
not going to need a lot of this and the
kids are going to get it, I.
Speaker 3 (31:54):
Think it does make sense to be more aggressive.
Speaker 2 (31:56):
I think the one caveat I would throw in here is, hey,
if you're one hundred percent of the stock market, hopefully
you realize the price of admission is going to be
some volatility. Are you going to wake up one day
and see that that portfolio could potentially be down twenty percent?
And are you still going to be able to sleep
at night knowing that it's likely going to rebound to
a new high, hopefully before your kids.
Speaker 3 (32:14):
Inherent that money.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
So a lot of this is just understanding your own
risk tolerance.
Speaker 10 (32:18):
Here.
Speaker 3 (32:19):
Let's get to Mark now in Madeira, my.
Speaker 12 (32:21):
Wife and I are both fifty one years old and
have no children. We are in great shape financially. Should
we be investing in private equity, hedge funds or alternative investments?
Speaker 5 (32:32):
Well, Mark, I think investing in these different asset classes
has very little to do with how old you are
and how many children you have and what shape you're
in financially.
Speaker 4 (32:41):
It just has to do with how much.
Speaker 5 (32:44):
Growth do you want or potential growth do you want
in your portfolio and how much risk mitigation do you
want a lot of times, the reason people use alternative
investments is to have a non correlated asset class in
their portfolio, meaning something that will go down when the
broad stock market goes up, and vice versa. With private equity,
you know you're getting privately held companies that have oftentimes
(33:07):
a lot more growth potential, but you need to be
aware that there's higher fees usually involved with these type
of investments and your money can be locked up for
a period of time. And then hedge funds is kind
of a to me, very similar to alternative investments, just
another non correlated asset class. So I think the key
here is just to understand how each of these different
(33:28):
types of investments work and then decide is this a
good fit for me and my personal financial plan?
Speaker 2 (33:35):
Yeah, and I think you got to look at Okay,
what are we really going to need in retirement?
Speaker 3 (33:38):
Right? What are our expenses going to be? I would
say dollars that you know you're going to need to
live off of retirement.
Speaker 2 (33:44):
Maybe don't belong in some of these asset classes because
there's just going.
Speaker 3 (33:48):
To be more volatility potentially associated with these.
Speaker 2 (33:51):
If you have checked the box and you know you're
good for retirement and you want to diversify beyond there,
this could be a great thing to look at.
Speaker 4 (34:00):
Bob.
Speaker 3 (34:00):
I love your point about, Hey, do your research first.
Speaker 2 (34:03):
Just because other people are talking about it doesn't mean
you go on in on any of these potential investments.
Things like this can sound incredibly sexy, but I think
you have to figure out does this truly make sense
for us?
Speaker 3 (34:14):
All right, let's get to Robert now in Amberley Village.
Speaker 9 (34:17):
How can I structure my portfolio to minimize exposure to
a potential recession while maintaining upside potential.
Speaker 4 (34:23):
I think this.
Speaker 5 (34:24):
Comes down to how your portfolio is allocated risk wise
between different asset classes, broadly speaking, stocks, bonds, and cash.
And then you know, Robert, there, there is going to
be a recession at some point.
Speaker 4 (34:37):
It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.
Speaker 5 (34:39):
So again, it comes down to planning your cash flow
and having some short term money, money that you're gonna
need within one to three years, set aside in something
that's safe, high yield savings accounts, short term bonds, things
like that that will dramatically minimize your exposure.
Speaker 4 (34:59):
To a potent Yeah.
Speaker 2 (35:01):
I think you've got to build up cash reserves right
that you could potentially draw from when markets are down,
so that you're not locking in losses right by pulling
distributions out of your investments.
Speaker 3 (35:11):
I'm going to throw out another option here.
Speaker 2 (35:13):
It's called a buffer to ETF and this could be
something that might make sense for your assets, a portion
of your assets, and essentially it can protect you from
give you some downside protection while also taking advantage of
potential upside too, you know, and I think you just
have to think through does this something that makes sense
for you? Our buffer ETF here at all Worth we
(35:35):
say to fully participate in the advantages of this, you
need your probably money locked up in it for about
a year.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
And it's not ever locked up. It's not like an
annuity or anything else.
Speaker 2 (35:44):
But to truly participate in it, you know, that's something
that you need to think through.
Speaker 3 (35:49):
Right, Is this money I'm going to need in the
next year or so.
Speaker 2 (35:51):
So I think there are options here, and I also
think it's really smart to be thinking through the closer
you get to retirement, not only growth, but also protect
all right, coming up next, a little dose.
Speaker 3 (36:02):
Of Wagner wisdom for you.
Speaker 2 (36:04):
You're listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial
here on fifty five KRC, the talk station.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
Remember you are first time. Okay, this is.
Speaker 10 (36:13):
My first time, so nervous, and it's easier to listen
than it is to call in.
Speaker 1 (36:19):
A little nervous tom there with me. First I voted
as a Republican. Then I'm calling in.
Speaker 3 (36:23):
A radio station.
Speaker 1 (36:24):
It's okay. My mom is rolling in her grave right now.
We love first timers. First time I've ever called out
of frustration. You've come to the right place. I have
to call in. I just have to speak my by
fifty five JRC the talk station.
Speaker 3 (36:40):
Open enrollment has come and gone.
Speaker 1 (36:42):
It doesn't matter affects you at the top end, bottom
of the hour.
Speaker 2 (36:45):
What the heck is going on with my property tax bill?
Speaker 1 (36:48):
Fifty five KRZ the talk station.
Speaker 2 (36:57):
You're listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth find
Angela Memani Wagner along with Bob Sponseller that music can
only mean one thing.
Speaker 3 (37:04):
It is time for some Wagner wisdom for you. Bob.
Speaker 2 (37:08):
I'm going to ask you to stick with me on
this one. I was listening to a podcast this week and.
Speaker 3 (37:13):
They were sharing this story.
Speaker 2 (37:15):
I don't know how many years it goes back, but
back to the day where people would go to local
festivals all the time, things like that, and there was
a competition at a festival where you could go and
you could guess how much the prize steer weighs.
Speaker 3 (37:32):
Right, it's the it's the competition.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
So all these people were going and they were all
putting in guesses in one lucky.
Speaker 4 (37:40):
Person is a prise steer an animal or a human being.
Speaker 3 (37:44):
I think it's an animal.
Speaker 2 (37:45):
As I was following along, Christ is the animal, and
everyone is, you know, making their bets on what's what's
the winning thing here?
Speaker 3 (37:54):
One person comes within ten pounds.
Speaker 2 (37:56):
Interestingly, someone who was there that day said to the
people who were doing this festival, can I get all
the guesses? And they're like, sure, sure you can get
all the guesses, we don't need them. So this person
went home and averaged together everybody's guesses. Interestingly, they were
within two pounds. When you put the collective together, they
(38:18):
were within two pounds of what the actual weight was.
And that got me thinking as I was listening to
this about being broadly diversified, right, one person won that day,
one person like that, one thing came out ahead. But
the collective, right, everyone's collective energy in smarts actually got
(38:39):
much closer to the reality.
Speaker 3 (38:40):
And so I think there's so many people who want
to go in on all in on whatever it is.
Pick your company, pick your asset class, pick what an
alt investment, and think this is it.
Speaker 2 (38:52):
And I fully fully believe a broadly diversified, you know,
portfolio built on indexes where we're.
Speaker 3 (39:00):
Relying on the brain power of a lot of really smart.
Speaker 2 (39:03):
People running these companies is truly what's going to get
you out ahead.
Speaker 5 (39:07):
Well, and you're you know a lot of people are wrong,
just like you're going to have a lot of big
winners and big losers in a broad index. But the
broad market, highly diversified, is always right, I think, is
the point that you're making. And I guess I was
going to ask, too, is this person that you're referring
to named Andy Stout? Is this how Andy grew up
(39:27):
our chief investment officer at all? This sounds like something
Andy would have done.
Speaker 2 (39:31):
It is probably how his brain works, which is why
I'm so glad he is in the position that he's in.
Speaker 3 (39:37):
But it just it was so interesting because I was listening.
Speaker 2 (39:39):
To the story, I was thinking I would have never thought,
first of all, hey what did everyone collectively come up with?
Speaker 3 (39:46):
But how much closer it.
Speaker 2 (39:47):
Was to any person's individual Guess you know there's people
that I come into contact with all the time.
Speaker 3 (39:54):
What about Crypto? What about this? What about that?
Speaker 2 (39:57):
And I'm like, what about the S and P five hundred?
What about these big companies?
Speaker 4 (40:02):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (40:02):
And to your point, Amy and all joking, stupid jokes aside.
That's an excellent illustration, it really is, and it's a
good lesson to learn for all of us.
Speaker 2 (40:11):
Yeah, So the next time you're at a party, someone's
talking about how much they made some crazy return on
some individual asset, and you're starting to think, either I
need to get into that or I need to figure
out what my own lottery ticket is.
Speaker 3 (40:24):
Right, No, I mean it's the chortouse versus the hair here,
being broadly diversified.
Speaker 2 (40:29):
It's not one sexy stock that's going to change everything
for you. It's being smart and well diversified through the years.
Speaker 3 (40:36):
Thanks for listening.
Speaker 2 (40:37):
You've been listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth
Financial here in fifty five krs the talk station, Mark Leavin.
Speaker 6 (40:44):
This is why I feel you and I we have
a special relationship. Really, I don't deal well with Washington,
I don't deal well with cliques, social circles, and I
don't deal well with the media. Just being honest with you.
When I come on this program and do my own research,
we talk about.
Speaker 4 (40:59):
Indo pendent media.
Speaker 6 (41:00):
I am independent from independent media.
Speaker 4 (41:03):
In other words, I do as I wish to do.
Speaker 1 (41:05):
I do what I do tonight at ten oh six
on fifty five KRC, the talk station, The president says
he wants
Two five KRC.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Tonight, the story in the midst of all of this
market volatility that isn't getting too much attention, But maybe
you should be paying attention to if you're listening to
Simply Money presented by All Word Financial I Memi Wagner
along with Bob's spondseller. For the past couple of weeks,
the whole world has been focused on Tariff's Wall Street's
reaction to them. We've had wild swings, we've seen crazy headlines,
(00:30):
but there is something going on a little bit maybe
beneath the surface, that maybe you're not paying attention to
as an investor. Bob, I know you're super humble, but
I'm going to give you some credit here. You have
been saying this whole time, you are keeping a close
eye on the bond market.
Speaker 3 (00:49):
Talk about why that is.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
Well.
Speaker 4 (00:51):
One reason, thank you, Amy.
Speaker 5 (00:53):
One reason why that is is the United States has
to refinance. As I think we all know, or most
of us know, you worth thirty six trillion dollars in debts.
Speaker 4 (01:02):
We've got some debts in this country.
Speaker 5 (01:05):
And you know the dirty little secret here is seven
trillion of that thirty six trillion has to be refinanced
in some way, shape or form during twenty twenty five.
And historically, you know, China has bought a lot of
our debt, Japan has bought a lot of our debts.
So in the midst of all this tariff talk and
negotiation behind the scenes with the president and these various countries,
(01:28):
I mean, don't you know bond yields in the in
the purchase of bonds is a factor in all this,
especially when you're talking about China. So the interesting thing
over the last couple of weeks, as most people have
just been focused on the gyration up and down in
the stock market, there's been a little movement in the
ten year treasury bond and the bond market in general
(01:50):
over the last week as well, And I think that'll
be a part of this ongoing negotiation, you know, going
on with these various countries, especially China.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
I want to go to investing one oh one right now.
Just a reminder, you know, if you own stocks, right
most of us do invest in our flow and k
that's ownership, part ownership of a company. On the flip
side the bond market, if you own bonds, you're loaning
your money, and in this case, what we're talking about
is to the federal government, which is considered one of
(02:21):
the safest investments that you can make. Right the tenure treasury,
you're loaning your money to the government and assuming you know,
if it's a ten year treasury that ten years later
you'll get back a certain amount of interest on that
bond when it comes to maturity. Now, I think there's
so much kind of misunderstanding about what bonds are. But
(02:44):
when we talk about having a diversified portfolio, one of
the things that we're talking about within your asset allocation
is that you own both stocks and bonds, And I
think it depends on your individual situation how much of
each you should own, but we often refer to the
bond portion of it as the shock absorbers. You know,
you were making Bob an excellent point for those who
(03:07):
like I just can't wrap my head around bonds.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
There's a lot of similarities to CDs.
Speaker 4 (03:14):
Yes, and the different Yeah.
Speaker 5 (03:16):
What when you buy a CD, you're loaning your money
to a bank, and I think everybody can understand this concept.
You know, when you go buy a three year CD
at the bank, everybody knows what they're getting. You know,
you give the bank the fifty grand, one hundred grand,
ten grand and say, hey, I know what my interest
rate's going to be for the next three years, I'm
going to get interest and at the end of that
term of time, I'm going to get all my money back.
(03:39):
Really easy to understand what people don't understand. You know,
if you go look at how the proverbial sausage is
being made in the background, the price of that CD
if you go to sell it before maturity, it's fluctuating
every day in the market based on the movement of
interest rates.
Speaker 4 (03:55):
The same thing happens with bonds.
Speaker 5 (03:58):
When we have clients in a bond portfolio and they
look and they pull up their account online, you're going
to get a real day to day price update on
those bonds. Even though if you hold the bond to maturity,
which is what most people do in the portfolio, it
doesn't matter. Yes, the volatility is, you know, not immaterial. Yeah,
(04:21):
And I think that's a hard concept for people to understand.
The other hard concept is the price of bonds moves
inversely to the direction of interest rates. Most people think, hey,
interest rates go up, that's a good thing because I'm
getting more money, you know, on my bonds, Well, the
price of that existing bonds dropped because the person buying
(04:44):
a bond today is going to get a higher rate.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
You can get more money and more an interest off
of a newer bond than the one that you own.
Speaker 5 (04:50):
So all that can get a little bit confusing, and
that's why you know you hear the birth the term
laddered bond portfolio. That's where folks like Andy Stout and
his team are Chief investor officer here at all Worth
build and monitor long term laddered bond portfolios for our clients.
So you've got a little bit of everything in terms
of diversification. Diversification on the time horizon of your bond,
(05:15):
diversification on who you're lending your money to, whether that's
the federal government, a municipality, a corporation. You build a
nice layer diversified portfolio of bonds, and over time that
does cushion volatility of the of the portfolio and helps
bonds do what they're meant to do. As you said, Amy,
do two things. Provide some regular interest and cash flow
(05:39):
and be a cushioning mechanism against stock market volatility.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
You're listening to simply money and presented by all Worth Financial,
I mean you Wagner along with Bob Sponseler. You know, Bob,
you're talking about the fact that what bonds are supposed
to do. In twenty twenty two, we did have this
weird situation where the stock market and the bond market
was down at the same time, you know. So I
think there's maybe some investors out there who are like, oh,
(06:03):
if we saw some volatility in the bond market recently,
does that mean that we're going to experience long term
volatility here? And maybe is the bond market not able
to hold up its end of the deal right now?
Speaker 5 (06:18):
And that all remains to be seen, you know, dependent
on what happens with this tariff policy. You know, whether
some of these tariffs take hold and stay in place
for the long term. Folks are saying that can be
inflationary and that can raise long term interest rates. On
the flip side, it can also be recessionary, and you
put the economy into a recession. The FED will typically
(06:41):
drop rates if we start to see high unemployment and
things like that. So that's why people are paying attention
to the bond market. I will just say, at least
at this point in time, amy. The bond market this
year is nothing close to what we saw in twenty
twenty two. The Federal Reserve raised interest straight seven times
during that year, and that's why we had the aggregate
(07:04):
bond indecks.
Speaker 4 (07:05):
Down in the mid teams.
Speaker 5 (07:06):
Yeah, this year, as a Friday of last week, the
bond market's up a little over one percent. Now, we
did see you know, a year, a month, a week,
I'm sorry, prior to that, we were up almost three percent.
So we did see the aggregate bond index pull back
about two percent last week. And for reasons I think
(07:28):
I'd like to understand. I think a lot of that
has to do with some of this ongoing tariff discussion
and who's going to be buying our debt in the
short term here. If China decides to say, well, you
want to play with us in this way, we're not
going to buy your debt anymore. You got to go
find a new buyer for your debt. And that's what
makes the bond market a little bit nervous here in
the short term.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
Well, and I.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
Think the question was during that week where we saw that,
you know, that decline, the selloff right in the bond
market is is is it not the police of safety
that it's always supposed to have been. And I appreciate
the fact that you're saying, listen, as a long term investor,
the bond portion of your portfolio, like is not really
(08:13):
subject to the daily fluctuations, Like this is immaterial to you.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
You know, so it's important to understand.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
You were in my office earlier, I googled the bond
market and there are headlines all over the place talking
about it. So we felt like, hey, it's important to
tell you and to give you the context of how
we look at this, and that's you need to understand
how the bond market works. You need to understand how
it works within your investment portfolio as a long term investor,
(08:42):
and then you need to understand why people are talking
about this right now and does it impact you.
Speaker 5 (08:47):
Yeah, the bond market can be volatile, and it was
last week, Yeah, and it moved. Bonds moved inversely to stocks.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
Last week.
Speaker 5 (08:53):
We got a nice little recovery short term in the
stock market, but meanwhile the bond market went down a
little bit.
Speaker 4 (09:00):
Now, Historically, you know, the level.
Speaker 5 (09:03):
Of volatility in bonds pales in comparison to the volatility
in stocks, but they will move around. Bonds are priced daily,
and we already tried to give that CD analogy. The
important thing is don't get caught up on it every
single day, because, again to the point you just made amy,
(09:24):
if you hold the bonds to maturity, you get your
money back, just like you do with a CD, and
you don't have to worry about this daily fluctuation.
Speaker 6 (09:32):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (09:33):
Yeah, I just think there's so much confusion over Wait
a second, it was this yesterday and now I'm looking
at it today and it's this amount. What does this
mean for me in those daily fluctuations? Again, for your
long term investor, really shouldn't mean anything.
Speaker 3 (09:45):
In fact, if you've.
Speaker 2 (09:47):
Done the work before we've gotten to these places of volatility.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
You should have stress tested your.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Portfolio, and that's running your particular investment allocation.
Speaker 3 (09:59):
Your You know how.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
You're invested through a series of scenarios, hopefully a lot
of them similar to what we're going through right now,
and say, what would the impact of exactly how I'm
invested be in times of volatility like this? Then you
step back from what you're seeing and you say, can
I handle that? Can I sleep at night?
Speaker 1 (10:18):
Still?
Speaker 3 (10:18):
If the answer is no, you should have already made.
Speaker 5 (10:21):
Some moves, that's right, And it is extremely difficult for
anyone to predict the short term movement of interest rates,
and it's very dangerous at times to make big bets
on that, and.
Speaker 4 (10:32):
I think that's why we even try.
Speaker 5 (10:34):
No, and that's another reason why I think we saw
some volatility last week. There was some unwinding of hedge
fund positions and leverage bond trades, and when those people
have to unwind those positions in the short term, that's
going to create some volatility. But again back to your point, Amy,
this is why we've got a diversified portfolio for our
clients in place, and you diversify based on who you're
(10:57):
lending your money to governments, local governments, federal government companies,
as well as the duration and the maturity dates on
those bonds, and that helps you ride through periods like
this without a ton of volatility.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
We work with a lot of smart, well educated investors here.
I think we are really lucky. But I have had
some people in my office recently. I wouldn't even say
they're nervous, but when we run through their plan and
we look at their numbers, right, they're spending, what's coming in,
how their investments are allocated, and we then run it
through the Monte Carlo right, all of the different scenarios,
(11:34):
markets up, markets down, and then we make projections about
where they'll be when they're in their nineties and beyond.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
It's just deep breath. It's like, oh, okay, yeah, we're good.
We're good.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
And so this is why you build your plan. This
is why you make sure you've got the right asset allocation.
This is why you stress tested. It may seem like
a boring endeavor when markets are only going up, but
during times like this, I'm telling you it is time
well spent.
Speaker 3 (11:59):
Here's the all Worth of advice.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
A good stress test portfolio should be able to weather
any storm, including volatility in the stock market and also
in the bond market, and it's really important to understand
the role of both within your investments. Coming up next,
the most ridiculous financial headlines that were just plain wrong.
You're listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial.
(12:21):
Here in fifty five KRC, the talk station Addie.
Speaker 8 (12:24):
Make us the number one pre sent on your car
radio and on the free new and improved iHeartRadio app.
Free never sounded so good. Fifty five KRC The Talk Station.
Speaker 9 (12:33):
All Worth Financial a registered investment advisory firm. Any ideas
presented during this program are not intended to provide specific
financial advice. You should consult your own financial advisor, tax consultant,
or a state planning attorney to conduct your own due diligence.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
You're listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial
and Meani Wagner along with Bob Sponseller. If you can't
listen to our show every night, you don't have to
miss a thing we talk. We have adeently podcast where
you just search Simply Money. It's on the iHeart app
or wherever you get your podcasts. Coming up at six
forty three. You've got a lot of great questions about
estate planning strategies, and a lot more in our Ask
(13:15):
the Advisor segment.
Speaker 3 (13:16):
We'll get to all that in just a few minutes.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
One of the things Bob, that we do on the show,
I think that it's different from where you get elsewhere,
is we rip apart. Some headlines that you might come
across that might give you pause, freak you out, give
you major anxiety if you don't have kind of some
historical perspective.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
But I think what.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
We're going to do now is even more of a
treat because it's not just hey, here's some recent headlines.
It is going back decades in talking about some of
the headlines that people actually came across they could have
totally derailed their money. And I think this perspective might
help you kind of the next time you come across one.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
Of these things and it gives you a little heartburn.
Speaker 5 (14:00):
It's a great reminder amy that so much of the
media is built to instill fear and greed in people,
so that we click on the articles and we get
emotionally charged up by them. Here here's a good one
back from nineteen twenty nine in the New York Times
quote stocks have reached a permanently high plateau. Pretty bold
(14:20):
statement about how the stock market would continue to rise forever.
And we all know what happened shortly thereafter in nineteen
twenty nine.
Speaker 3 (14:30):
What could possibly go wrong?
Speaker 4 (14:32):
What can possibly go wrong?
Speaker 2 (14:33):
Meanwhile, what we know now is there was so many
factors behind the scenes, people being over leveraged, all kinds
of things that were slowly silently behind the headlines, leading
everything to what set our country back financially for over
a decade.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
Right, when I come across people who lived through.
Speaker 2 (14:56):
The Great Depression, their approach to money isn't entirely different
from everyone else. Is because these are formative years and
it shook them to their core. Standing in line to
wait for bread in food like this was a devastating
time financially. And again nineteen twenty nine, right just on
(15:17):
the cusp of this, everyone thought it was smooth sailing well.
Speaker 5 (15:20):
And that's why you have a lot of people in
their eighties who are living in small Cape Cod paid
off houses that are worth six seven million dollars driving a.
Speaker 4 (15:31):
Fifteen year old sedan.
Speaker 5 (15:33):
They remember the Great Depression, and you know they adjusted
their life accordingly. Here's another headline back from nineteen sixty six.
The Dow hits one thousand.
Speaker 4 (15:45):
This is the end of the line.
Speaker 2 (15:49):
So many times people will refer to the Dow and
they'll talk about how many points up or down it is, right,
and it can sound scary. In the reminder we always
give you is, hey, what's the percentage. What's the percentage
that it's up or down at any given point. That's
what you need to focus on. The Dow hitting one
thousand back in nineteen sixty six, this is the end
(16:10):
of the line.
Speaker 3 (16:10):
It can't possibly go further. We all know how that
has played out and continues to play.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Out, right, And so I think you know, the reminder
here is you've got to focus on what's really important.
It's not points, it's the percentage that it's up or down.
And listen, and any given day it could be up,
it's going to be down, one never knows. But over time,
what you have to count on is more up days
in the market than down days.
Speaker 3 (16:35):
And that's how.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
You slowly build wealth. Right time in the market, not
timing the market.
Speaker 5 (16:41):
Yeah, I mean the market should be hitting all time
highs on a fairly regular basis. That means we have
a growing economy. That's how it's supposed to work. Yep,
they're going to be ebbs and flows in between. But
calling a all time market high is ridiculous. Yeah, how
about this one amy In two thousand, the Wall Street
(17:02):
Journal declares the tech boom is over. You know, all
tech stocks are nothing but a fad. The whole thing's
going to blow up. Obviously, the market did blow up.
This was the first big bear market I experienced. As
an advisor, and it was severe and it certainly had
people nervous. Not making light of that at all. But
(17:22):
to declare technology a fad was, you know, obviously overstated.
Speaker 3 (17:28):
Somewhat short sighted.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
I think you've got to remember kind of the thought
process during that time.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
You could do Amy and Bob dot Com.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
And we could have zero financial plan whatsoever, and people
were going to invest because there was dot Com at
the end of that company name.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
In many of these companies were just not fundamentally sound.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
It was a bit of a house of cards and
that house of cards fell down. Does that mean that
there was no future for technology? Well, we all know
how this played out. Fast forward to Apple to Amazon
to Meta. I mean, these are these large companies that
have moved the markets over the past couple of years.
You know, I think maybe technology got a little bit
(18:11):
ahead of itself when it came to during that time.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
Do I still think that these big, large companies will
continue to innovate? Yes, yeah, I do.
Speaker 10 (18:19):
I do.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
Am I going to go all in on the tech sector?
Absolutely not right. We've learned this lesson.
Speaker 5 (18:25):
Well on the same thing could be said about AI
stocks today.
Speaker 4 (18:28):
I mean, it's an emerging new technology.
Speaker 5 (18:31):
It's going to impact the economy, we hope in a
very positive way. But there's going to be winners and
losers in this space. And you can't just say, hey,
I'm going to buy anything with AI next week's name,
Because to your last point, some of these companies have
earnings and growing earnings, and some of them have no
earnings and no prospect of ever having any earnings and
(18:53):
a depleting balance sheet at the same time. So with
new innovation and new companies comes opper trinity, but also
comes a lot of potential short term volatility.
Speaker 2 (19:04):
Yeah, here's another great headline from nineteen ninety five, the
end of the Internet just a fad.
Speaker 3 (19:11):
It was recently telling my daughter.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
In nineteen ninety five, I was a freshman at the
University of Kentucky.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
We had to leave our dorm and go to.
Speaker 2 (19:21):
The Chemphis building on UK's campus to check our email.
Do you realize how crazy that sounds to our children now,
who are picking out their phones out of their pockets.
Speaker 3 (19:30):
And they've got email and text messages.
Speaker 2 (19:33):
You know, will these companies will continue to evolve and
to innovate.
Speaker 3 (19:38):
I think calling anything just a fad, does it make sense.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
I think the key here is to proper diversify yourself.
Speaker 4 (19:45):
Amy.
Speaker 5 (19:46):
I'm going to date myself a bit here. You might
get a chuckle out of this, But I got in
this business in nineteen ninety one, and it was literally
that year where they started to put personal computers on
people's desks hooked up to the inner I used to
just stare at that screen at all the scrolling advertisements,
and I'm like, this is awesome, you know, just to
(20:07):
have that on my desktop. I'm one of those old
people that got introduced to the internet.
Speaker 3 (20:12):
Here's the old Worth advice.
Speaker 2 (20:13):
Next time you see a headline just screaming at you
about what it thinks is going to happen in the
future of the market, take it with a grain of salt.
Coming up next, how's your career going? Is it time
to pivot, exit or double down? We're going to get
into that nextual. Listening to Simply Money presented by all
Worth Financial. Here in fifty five KRC the talk station.
Speaker 3 (20:33):
Driver an iHeartRadio station. You're listening to Simply Money.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
You're presented by all Worth Financial, I Memi Wagner along
with Bob spawn Seller. Do you feel like maybe you're
at a career crossroads right now, like, do you keep
on the path that you've always been?
Speaker 4 (20:55):
Can?
Speaker 3 (20:55):
Can you pivots? What are your options? Joining us tonight
is our ex bard and everything to do with your
job Julie on the job, Julie Balki.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
You know, I think the options when you get to
a career crossroads, you know, do you pivot?
Speaker 3 (21:09):
Do you exit to double down? And how do you
even know?
Speaker 10 (21:14):
So the first thing let's do, let's normalize that you
will have multiple career crossroads in your career and versus
you pick one job when you're twenty two and hang
on for dear life for forty plus years. You know,
it's it is healthy and normal to come to those
moments where you say, am I doing what I want
(21:35):
to do? Do I want to do something completely different?
Do I just want to make a slight pivot? And
I call that different chapters of your career. So we're
very comfortable using them more different chapters of life. But
I'm just such a fan of your career should be
lived in chapters as well, and so anytime you start
(21:56):
to have those feelings, it's really really don't stuff them down.
It's it's really worth examining why am I feeling this way,
what's working, what isn't blah blah blah, and then what
do I do about it? And the trick here is
you've got to be willing to do something about it.
Speaker 5 (22:10):
Amy as you talk about that, I think of some
of the articles I read that predict, you know, the
average person's going to have nine to twelve career or
job changes throughout their career, you know, people that are
young right now. And then I compare that to people
in their seventies and eighties. The people that worked at
one company for thirty five forty years got the gold watch,
(22:30):
got the pension. Is somewhere in the middle what reality
should be, you know, meaning if you're if you if
you're changing jobs and careers nine to twelve times, are
you maybe a little impatient or is that just the
way things have evolved, you know, in the economy these days.
Speaker 10 (22:48):
So let's say the numbers nine. It's reasonable to think
that at least half of that number will be involuntary changes,
the companies having layoffs. Companies may outsourcing what your department does.
And so when you look at how many times people
will get laid off in their career if they start
(23:08):
in the workforce today. If I had to, let's just say,
laid off or let go for some reason, for any reason,
If I just had to pick a number out of
the sky, it'd probably be I'd say, in probably four
or five times, you're going to be presented with the
opportunity to find your life's work elsewhere. And then there
are going to be those times when it becomes evident
(23:32):
to you that it's time for you to initiate that.
And so it's going to be that combination. But so
instead of just hoping it doesn't happen to you, and
we need to learn the skills of self reflection, of discernment,
of getting getting into action and changing jobs because believe me,
(23:55):
it's a lot more pleasant when you make that choice
actively instead of having it done to you.
Speaker 4 (24:02):
So we need to we need to doge proof our
career and resume.
Speaker 11 (24:06):
Is that what you're saying, Well, you know, I you know,
I don't. I don't know if there that's even possible.
You know, you can, as I think a lot of
our friends in the Washington area would tell us, you
can be doing a great job and you can be
at risk for a variety of reasons, and it could
it could feel very arbitrary, or it could be very
(24:28):
Look we what you got, what this team does, we
are outsourcing it.
Speaker 3 (24:32):
To a team in India.
Speaker 10 (24:33):
So now you need to go find something else. And
so the ability to be resilient in your career and
to reskill or upskill or decide to do something else,
you have to learn to invest in and take a
chance on yourself instead of waiting for an employer to
really be the one that controls your controls your career.
Speaker 2 (24:53):
So pivot, exit or double down, right, Julie Valki, Julian
the job joining us tonight to help us figure this out.
Speaker 3 (24:59):
You know, Julie, you may an excellent point.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
Of course, sometimes we don't have a choice in this
and we're shoved into this change. But if you are
someone who's maybe just started to feel an itch or
you used to love what you did and it's just
not as enjoyable anymore, how do you think through does
it make sense to change and where would you even
start looking? I think it can be overwhelming for a
(25:22):
lot of people to think about making a change proactively
mid career, because that can be really scary.
Speaker 10 (25:31):
Yeah, and So the first thing you have to do
is look inward and assess why am I feeling this way?
Am I feeling this way because I'm bored? Maybe I've
been doing it for a long time and it's fine,
but you know, I believe I could you know, I
could do something else or use my talents and skills differently.
Or is it because something has changed at work? Maybe
you have a new leader that you don't quite get
(25:52):
along with, or maybe it's something you're dealing with at
home that really is rippling into work. So you've got
to be really good at pinning those things down.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
What is it?
Speaker 10 (26:03):
Is it the job itself? Is it you know, do
you not like it anymore or you burn out? Or
have you been put in a role that you don't
feel confident and qualified for? Or is it it's a
return to the office thing and that has really up
ended your life and you can't do that. Or is
it a leadership for cultures? So you've got to look
at what's the primary reason why I'm feeling this way,
(26:24):
And then the next question is is this something that's
under my control? And if it's a leadership change and
your report and you work in a really small company,
and that's you don't have the opportunity to move into
a different department, then you've got to figure out it
may be time to leave. If it's that you really
like the company you work for and you really like
(26:44):
the leadership and you believe in the mission, but you're
getting bored in your job, that might be something you
could have a conversation about. So you've got to diagnose
the problem before you can figure out if it's in
your control, and if it isn't. If you try everything
and say, you know what, it's just time for me
to move on whatever reason, then the next step is
figuring out, like getting in your car and opening up
(27:07):
Google Maps and putting the destination, and you have to
start figuring out, given what's unsatisfactory about where you are now,
what does satisfactory look like? What? In other words, what
do I want to move toward? More of this, less
of this, et cetera. And it's really, really and this
is why we exist. It's hard to do it for
yourself because we don't I find it normally, we don't
(27:31):
give ourselves enough credit for all the things we're good at.
Where most of us are instead of being having a
self having a overinflated sense of what we're capable of.
It's generally underinflated. And that's I mean, that's what we do.
We help people figure that out and then put a
(27:52):
plan together to go get it. But if you're stuck
in the if you're stuck in the who else would
hire me? This is all I know. I'm over fifty,
I'm too old. If you start any of that thinking,
then you're really relegating yourself to just several more years
of being miserable. And frankly, when you're miserable at work,
(28:16):
it's very, very hard to be pleasant in other areas
of your life because the line between work and home
is gone.
Speaker 3 (28:22):
At this point, Julie quickly, we have about a minute left.
Speaker 2 (28:27):
You know, for someone who is in this place, you
kind of refer to this. But you and I have
done this together in the past, making lists what do
I want to do more of? What do I want
to do less of? And I think putting it on
paper can be incredibly I opening of, Oh, maybe here's
the solution, and maybe it's already within the company that
(28:48):
I'm working.
Speaker 3 (28:49):
It's just a slight pivot.
Speaker 10 (28:51):
Right exactly, that's right. Once you figure out. So the
process we walk people through is we'll say, okay, what's
not working and what do you want? So we help you,
We'll figure out you pull yourself away from your employer
and say, okay, what do I really want? The next
question then is can I get it where I am?
And if the answer is yes, then you start to
(29:13):
have conversations where you're very clear about what you want,
more of, less of, et cetera. But sometimes the answer
is no. And so at that point you are at
a crossroads where you say, well, I either need to
I believe everybody deserves to be happy at work, So.
Speaker 3 (29:30):
Maybe it's making a jump, right, that could be the
best thing.
Speaker 2 (29:34):
You've got to ask yourself courage, but you've got to ask.
Speaker 3 (29:37):
Yourself questions first.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
Yeah, Julie Bauki, Julie on the job, Thank you so much,
great insights. You're listening to something money presented by all
Worth Financial here in fifty five krs the talk station.
Speaker 1 (29:48):
You're about it. You're on the tense yard line of peace.
We're getting close. Talk about it. I'll believe it when
it is clearly a psychopathion.
Speaker 6 (29:57):
Why is any here explaining call it?
Speaker 5 (30:00):
Thank you?
Speaker 1 (30:01):
I love hearing the Democrats for news. We've been ripped
off as a country for many, many.
Speaker 6 (30:06):
Years, and your views are trillion guests, How can.
Speaker 9 (30:12):
Terriffs be effective if they're hurting both countries?
Speaker 3 (30:15):
Am I on the air?
Speaker 1 (30:16):
Fifty five KRC the talk station?
Speaker 10 (30:20):
Are you rumber?
Speaker 8 (30:21):
One pre said on your car radio and on the
free new and improved iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 1 (30:25):
Free never sounded so good?
Speaker 8 (30:27):
Fifty five KRC the talk station.
Speaker 3 (30:34):
You're listening to Simply Money presented by all Worth Financial.
Speaker 2 (30:36):
I mean you Wagner alone with Bob spawn sell or,
do you have a financial question you need a little
help with. There's a red button you can click on
while you're listening to the show right there on the
iHeart app. Record your question. It's coming straight to us,
and it is time to ask the advisor some of
your questions. First one is from Chris and Mason.
Speaker 4 (30:52):
Should I invest one hundred percent in stocks? If I
plan on handing my portfolio over to my children? I
don't need the money.
Speaker 5 (30:59):
Well, Chris just going off the question, and I'm a
literal kind of guy, so I'm just reading the question.
If this is truly money that you never intend to
spend and it's a long term time horizon, and you're
going to live another fifteen, twenty thirty years and then
hand these stop the portfolio over to your children. By
all means, take advantage of capital gains, growth in the market,
(31:22):
stepped up cost bases at death. It's a wonderful way
to leave assets you know to your children and grow
them while you're still alive.
Speaker 4 (31:30):
I say, go for it, but be diversified. Be diversified,
don't put it all in deep seek.
Speaker 2 (31:36):
One of the number one conversations or first conversations I
have when I'm working with someone is what's your goal
for your money? Do you want your last check to
bounce or do you want your kids to get this money.
If the goal is, hey, we've got enough that we're
not going to need a lot of this and the
kids are going to get it, I.
Speaker 3 (31:54):
Think it does make sense to be more aggressive.
Speaker 2 (31:56):
I think the one caveat I would throw in here is, hey,
if you're one hundred percent of the stock market, hopefully
you realize the price of admission is going to be
some volatility. Are you going to wake up one day
and see that that portfolio could potentially be down twenty percent?
And are you still going to be able to sleep
at night knowing that it's likely going to rebound to
a new high, hopefully before your kids.
Speaker 3 (32:14):
Inherent that money.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
So a lot of this is just understanding your own
risk tolerance.
Speaker 10 (32:18):
Here.
Speaker 3 (32:19):
Let's get to Mark now in Madeira, my.
Speaker 12 (32:21):
Wife and I are both fifty one years old and
have no children. We are in great shape financially. Should
we be investing in private equity, hedge funds or alternative investments?
Speaker 5 (32:32):
Well, Mark, I think investing in these different asset classes
has very little to do with how old you are
and how many children you have and what shape you're
in financially.
Speaker 4 (32:41):
It just has to do with how much.
Speaker 5 (32:44):
Growth do you want or potential growth do you want
in your portfolio and how much risk mitigation do you
want a lot of times, the reason people use alternative
investments is to have a non correlated asset class in
their portfolio, meaning something that will go down when the
broad stock market goes up, and vice versa. With private equity,
you know you're getting privately held companies that have oftentimes
(33:07):
a lot more growth potential, but you need to be
aware that there's higher fees usually involved with these type
of investments and your money can be locked up for
a period of time. And then hedge funds is kind
of a to me, very similar to alternative investments, just
another non correlated asset class. So I think the key
here is just to understand how each of these different
(33:28):
types of investments work and then decide is this a
good fit for me and my personal financial plan?
Speaker 2 (33:35):
Yeah, and I think you got to look at Okay,
what are we really going to need in retirement?
Speaker 3 (33:38):
Right? What are our expenses going to be? I would
say dollars that you know you're going to need to
live off of retirement.
Speaker 2 (33:44):
Maybe don't belong in some of these asset classes because
there's just going.
Speaker 3 (33:48):
To be more volatility potentially associated with these.
Speaker 2 (33:51):
If you have checked the box and you know you're
good for retirement and you want to diversify beyond there,
this could be a great thing to look at.
Speaker 4 (34:00):
Bob.
Speaker 3 (34:00):
I love your point about, Hey, do your research first.
Speaker 2 (34:03):
Just because other people are talking about it doesn't mean
you go on in on any of these potential investments.
Things like this can sound incredibly sexy, but I think
you have to figure out does this truly make sense
for us?
Speaker 3 (34:14):
All right, let's get to Robert now in Amberley Village.
Speaker 9 (34:17):
How can I structure my portfolio to minimize exposure to
a potential recession while maintaining upside potential.
Speaker 4 (34:23):
I think this.
Speaker 5 (34:24):
Comes down to how your portfolio is allocated risk wise
between different asset classes, broadly speaking, stocks, bonds, and cash.
And then you know, Robert, there, there is going to
be a recession at some point.
Speaker 4 (34:37):
It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.
Speaker 5 (34:39):
So again, it comes down to planning your cash flow
and having some short term money, money that you're gonna
need within one to three years, set aside in something
that's safe, high yield savings accounts, short term bonds, things
like that that will dramatically minimize your exposure.
Speaker 4 (34:59):
To a potent Yeah.
Speaker 2 (35:01):
I think you've got to build up cash reserves right
that you could potentially draw from when markets are down,
so that you're not locking in losses right by pulling
distributions out of your investments.
Speaker 3 (35:11):
I'm going to throw out another option here.
Speaker 2 (35:13):
It's called a buffer to ETF and this could be
something that might make sense for your assets, a portion
of your assets, and essentially it can protect you from
give you some downside protection while also taking advantage of
potential upside too, you know, and I think you just
have to think through does this something that makes sense
for you? Our buffer ETF here at all Worth we
(35:35):
say to fully participate in the advantages of this, you
need your probably money locked up in it for about
a year.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
And it's not ever locked up. It's not like an
annuity or anything else.
Speaker 2 (35:44):
But to truly participate in it, you know, that's something
that you need to think through.
Speaker 3 (35:49):
Right, Is this money I'm going to need in the
next year or so.
Speaker 2 (35:51):
So I think there are options here, and I also
think it's really smart to be thinking through the closer
you get to retirement, not only growth, but also protect
all right, coming up next, a little dose.
Speaker 3 (36:02):
Of Wagner wisdom for you.
Speaker 2 (36:04):
You're listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial
here on fifty five KRC, the talk station.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
Remember you are first time. Okay, this is.
Speaker 10 (36:13):
My first time, so nervous, and it's easier to listen
than it is to call in.
Speaker 1 (36:19):
A little nervous tom there with me. First I voted
as a Republican. Then I'm calling in.
Speaker 3 (36:23):
A radio station.
Speaker 1 (36:24):
It's okay. My mom is rolling in her grave right now.
We love first timers. First time I've ever called out
of frustration. You've come to the right place. I have
to call in. I just have to speak my by
fifty five JRC the talk station.
Speaker 3 (36:40):
Open enrollment has come and gone.
Speaker 1 (36:42):
It doesn't matter affects you at the top end, bottom
of the hour.
Speaker 2 (36:45):
What the heck is going on with my property tax bill?
Speaker 1 (36:48):
Fifty five KRZ the talk station.
Speaker 2 (36:57):
You're listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth find
Angela Memani Wagner along with Bob Sponseller that music can
only mean one thing.
Speaker 3 (37:04):
It is time for some Wagner wisdom for you. Bob.
Speaker 2 (37:08):
I'm going to ask you to stick with me on
this one. I was listening to a podcast this week and.
Speaker 3 (37:13):
They were sharing this story.
Speaker 2 (37:15):
I don't know how many years it goes back, but
back to the day where people would go to local
festivals all the time, things like that, and there was
a competition at a festival where you could go and
you could guess how much the prize steer weighs.
Speaker 3 (37:32):
Right, it's the it's the competition.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
So all these people were going and they were all
putting in guesses in one lucky.
Speaker 4 (37:40):
Person is a prise steer an animal or a human being.
Speaker 3 (37:44):
I think it's an animal.
Speaker 2 (37:45):
As I was following along, Christ is the animal, and
everyone is, you know, making their bets on what's what's
the winning thing here?
Speaker 3 (37:54):
One person comes within ten pounds.
Speaker 2 (37:56):
Interestingly, someone who was there that day said to the
people who were doing this festival, can I get all
the guesses? And they're like, sure, sure you can get
all the guesses, we don't need them. So this person
went home and averaged together everybody's guesses. Interestingly, they were
within two pounds. When you put the collective together, they
(38:18):
were within two pounds of what the actual weight was.
And that got me thinking as I was listening to
this about being broadly diversified, right, one person won that day,
one person like that, one thing came out ahead. But
the collective, right, everyone's collective energy in smarts actually got
(38:39):
much closer to the reality.
Speaker 3 (38:40):
And so I think there's so many people who want
to go in on all in on whatever it is.
Pick your company, pick your asset class, pick what an
alt investment, and think this is it.
Speaker 2 (38:52):
And I fully fully believe a broadly diversified, you know,
portfolio built on indexes where we're.
Speaker 3 (39:00):
Relying on the brain power of a lot of really smart.
Speaker 2 (39:03):
People running these companies is truly what's going to get
you out ahead.
Speaker 5 (39:07):
Well, and you're you know a lot of people are wrong,
just like you're going to have a lot of big
winners and big losers in a broad index. But the
broad market, highly diversified, is always right, I think, is
the point that you're making. And I guess I was
going to ask, too, is this person that you're referring
to named Andy Stout? Is this how Andy grew up
(39:27):
our chief investment officer at all? This sounds like something
Andy would have done.
Speaker 2 (39:31):
It is probably how his brain works, which is why
I'm so glad he is in the position that he's in.
Speaker 3 (39:37):
But it just it was so interesting because I was listening.
Speaker 2 (39:39):
To the story, I was thinking I would have never thought,
first of all, hey what did everyone collectively come up with?
Speaker 3 (39:46):
But how much closer it.
Speaker 2 (39:47):
Was to any person's individual Guess you know there's people
that I come into contact with all the time.
Speaker 3 (39:54):
What about Crypto? What about this? What about that?
Speaker 2 (39:57):
And I'm like, what about the S and P five hundred?
What about these big companies?
Speaker 4 (40:02):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (40:02):
And to your point, Amy and all joking, stupid jokes aside.
That's an excellent illustration, it really is, and it's a
good lesson to learn for all of us.
Speaker 2 (40:11):
Yeah, So the next time you're at a party, someone's
talking about how much they made some crazy return on
some individual asset, and you're starting to think, either I
need to get into that or I need to figure
out what my own lottery ticket is.
Speaker 3 (40:24):
Right, No, I mean it's the chortouse versus the hair here,
being broadly diversified.
Speaker 2 (40:29):
It's not one sexy stock that's going to change everything
for you. It's being smart and well diversified through the years.
Speaker 3 (40:36):
Thanks for listening.
Speaker 2 (40:37):
You've been listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth
Financial here in fifty five krs the talk station, Mark Leavin.
Speaker 6 (40:44):
This is why I feel you and I we have
a special relationship. Really, I don't deal well with Washington,
I don't deal well with cliques, social circles, and I
don't deal well with the media. Just being honest with you.
When I come on this program and do my own research,
we talk about.
Speaker 4 (40:59):
Indo pendent media.
Speaker 6 (41:00):
I am independent from independent media.
Speaker 4 (41:03):
In other words, I do as I wish to do.
Speaker 1 (41:05):
I do what I do tonight at ten oh six
on fifty five KRC, the talk station, The president says
he wants
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