Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
This free is a the American Smart Authentic Voices fifty
five krs. He the talk station.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Tonight.
Speaker 3 (00:18):
Are we in for lower stock market games and the
years to come? Some major players in the financial world
seem to think. So, you're listening to Simply Money because
iented by all Worth Financial on Bob Sponseller along with
Brian James. There's some new research out tonight from both
Vanguard and morning Stars. So those are two pretty big names,
so I guess we ought to pay attention at least
(00:38):
talk about what they're saying here, Brian.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Uh, Let's start with Vanguard. They say.
Speaker 3 (00:43):
Vanguard says don't expect double digit returns in the stock
market like we've been seeing in the years to come.
In fact, they're forecasting annual US equity returns of just
around four to six percent over the next decade. That's
still slightly ahead of inflation expects. But that's that's a
lot lower return than what folks have been used to here,
(01:05):
you know, over the last I don't know, eighty years
on average. And then morning Star ads that much of
the recent stock market performance, which we all know has
been fueled by just a few massive tech stocks. Think
the mag seven, and they're warning investors to temper expectations before. Brian,
we see these predictions all the time. You and I
(01:28):
make fun of them on this show on a regular basis.
Is this anything to pay attention to in your opinion.
Speaker 4 (01:34):
Bob, I always come back to market history when when
I think about this stuff. When I was a baby advisor,
this would have been late nineties. This was the original
Internet boom, when Yahoo ruled the roofs. Remember those days.
I'm dating myself, of course, but so here this is
a revelation I want to you're a revelation I had
about maybe you're not dating yourself.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
I got started in this business before there were computers
on our debt.
Speaker 4 (01:54):
When the Internet was all facts based. That's how old
I am. Go ahead, but no, so a few of
your ago. Something occurred to me that it's a very
special to me in my career. But I think it
makes a lot of sense and it's a lot of
things together for me. So I'm thinking back to fifth
grade at Saint Ignacius over there on the west side.
Missus Keith, one of my all time favorite teachers, famous
for her Hawaiian shirts, behive hairdoos, and weekly readers taught
(02:15):
me about something called the Dutch East India Company, and
she didn't know why she was teaching. I didn't know
why at the time, but it all makes sense now.
Dutch East India Company was the original stock market, effectively
because I if I am a merchant with one ship
and I send it across the world and it thinks
I'm screwed. If I have ten percent of ten ships
and two of them sink, the other eight are going
to make me a boutload of money. That was the
(02:36):
origin of the stock market. Using other people's money. I
don't think the Dutch people called it o PM, but
other people's money to invest in profit for profit ventures.
That has evolved into what we now know today as
the stock market. So and that idea of using other
people's capital to invest in grow and come up with
new ideas and grow things has been around for four
or five hundred years. I don't think it's changing anytime soon.
(02:58):
So even though Vanguard Morning Star I've come out with these,
I swear I've heard this Bob ever since, ever since,
or every time we have some kind of big catalyst
wave and then the wave kind of comes to rest.
It was the original Internet wave, and then it was
real estate that blew up in two thousand and eight,
and then after that we got into mobile devices and
social media those kinds of things. Now it's ai. Every
time we come offul one of these waves, somebody comes
(03:20):
out and says, we need to adjust our expectations. And
I'm going back on thirty years of personal history with this,
and that has yet to happen, Bob, Greed is greed.
The stock market is run by very smart people who
are very greedy. They will find new ways to make money.
It has happened for centuries.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
All right. Well, while you're talking about good old missus
Keith on the west side, that breaks.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
That brings up memories of my American Studies class at
Green Hills High School where a guy who's still one
of my good friends I've known and said sixth grade,
had the audacity to hand out the Communist Manifesto in
the middle of class to all of us and make
an argument that communism was the way to go.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
H what a difference is you school?
Speaker 3 (04:03):
Well, I would to Green Hills High School and this
guy we laughed him out of the class.
Speaker 2 (04:08):
You know, we're anyway, let's let's yeah, I'm with you.
Speaker 3 (04:11):
Innovation has always been there, Greed has always been there.
People are always going to adapt, adjust, invent, innovate. I
don't think the stock market's dead. I do think from
time to time, and this might be one of those times.
And I think, you know, these articles make a good
point and a point that we echo all the time.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
I mean, let's face it, in the s and P.
Five hundred and now, over.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
Thirty percent of the market cap is dominated by these
mag seven companies, you know, tied to AI. And if
if a few of those companies hiccup or demand slows down,
that's not going that's not only going to bring down
those company stock prices, but it could bring the market
with it. So point well taken. The point here, Brian,
is diversification. Not assume that growth and innovation is dead,
(04:58):
you know, and not going to return for another ten years.
Speaker 4 (05:01):
That's my thin And there's some other voices out there
talking a little differently. So t row Price, big mutual
fun company based out of Baltimore. I believe they're forecasting
more balanced growth and they're kind of heralding a new
era of broader market gains. But they're making the point
that sectors like industrials, financials, healthcare will will be outpacing tech.
I think what they're really saying is that they feel
(05:21):
like tech that is driven for decades now it might
be running out of steam and coming back to the
pack a little bit, allowing the other companies and the
other industries out there to kind of catch up. So again,
just that just feeds into your point of this is
why we talk about diversification. Don't throw all your eggs
in one basket. Make sure you got exposure in a
little bit of everything.
Speaker 3 (05:39):
Well, and then Golden Sachs came out with a report
which you know, I agree with this. They say, analysts
say that, you know, there is a gap between how
the Magnificent seven stocks have been performing and the rest
of the market, but they think that gap is going
to start to shrink. And Brian, let's just talk about
the business cycle. I mean, we can go back and
look at what happened and when the tech bubb the
(06:02):
tech bubble happened, you know in two thousand to two
thousand and two. You know, at the beginning stages of
new innovation and technology. The people that create the technology
and the equipment that that stuff soares and we're seeing
that right now. But then over time, just look at
the Internet as businesses, businesses started to actually use the
(06:22):
Internet and gain the productivity that comes in, you know,
from adopting new technology that improves the productivity of every industry.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
So it does go in cycles.
Speaker 3 (06:36):
And I think that's the point Goldman might be making
right now, is this thing's gonna probably start to even out,
particularly when it comes to AI. I mean, i'll say
case and point our company. I sat through a I
don't know, our long presentation yesterday on the AI tools
we have here at all Worth.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
It was fascinating, riveting.
Speaker 3 (06:55):
It's gonna allow us to do a lot of things
over here that took hours and hours and hours to do,
and that time is going to shrink dramatically, which is
going to raise our productivity. Now, did we have access
to that, you know, six twelve, eighteen months ago?
Speaker 2 (07:11):
No, Now we do. Uh, most people don't.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
Think of every you know, restaurants, healthcare companies, energy companies.
Everybody's going to have access to this stuff, but it
takes time for new technology to broaden out its usage,
you know, throughout all users in all industries. And yeah,
over time, things will even out, and that's how the
market has always worked and frankly how it should work.
(07:37):
That's the sign of a healthy economy and a healthy market.
Speaker 4 (07:41):
Yeah, I would say I would also echo that that
we hear that from our clients too. Our clients work
for just about every type of workplace here in the
city and elsewhere, hospitals, factories, banks, so on and so forth,
and everybody is going through some kind of transition where
their companies are looking to benefit from artificial intelligence. That
is the catalyst of this particular era, and I think
we'll see the same kind of the same kind of
(08:01):
expansion whenever we've seen a similar catalyst in the past.
Speaker 3 (08:05):
You're listening to simply Money presented by all Worth Financial.
I'm Bob sponsor along with Brian James. So, Brian, are
we in a bubble right now? City Bank came out
with a report they sent out to their clients say no,
we're not in a bubble, but some valuation metrics are
compelling and so to ride those AI enablers, the companies
(08:26):
that are developing AI technologies for now, but they say,
and I agree with this, in the medium term, there's
going to be a handoff in market leadership to the
AI adopters, those companies that can take this new innovative
technology and adopt it into their business and get these
big productivity gains, And that's probably what's likely to happen
(08:48):
here over the next five to ten years.
Speaker 2 (08:50):
I agree with that, Brian.
Speaker 4 (08:52):
Yeah, and so therefore, okay, great, So what should investors
what should be looking for for the next ten years?
So first off, you know, as we always say, we'll
beat the drum again, revisit your allocations. If you have
had a significant amount of TEX stocks, or if you've
seen your portfolio outpaced the market, then I'll bet you
do have a significant amount of TEX stocks in there.
That is not a bad thing, but it does mean
you're overweighted, and at some point that needs to be
(09:14):
rebalanced at least a little bit. You know, you can't
ride the horse until it's dead. You have to you
have to take some profits at some point. So if
you do find yourself with a significant position, you know
there's some people out there sitting on an awful lot
of Apple or Nvidia or any of those types of
stocks that you know, maybe you made a decent sized
bet on ten years ago. And now it's going through
the roof. That is great. However, any company can have
(09:35):
anything happen at any time, so you might be considering
ways to to to reduce the risk there, and that
does not necessarily mean sell it. There are ways you
can manage risk around a concentrated position without actually selling
it occurring taxes. You can use op a lot of times.
For example, Bob we we associate options with speculative trading,
and there is there is that element in that world.
But options can also be used as security policies to
(09:57):
kind of guarantee put put some money into a position
that will guarantee a floor below a concentrated position. So
just to be on the same side of, you know,
the idea of rebalancing without incurring the taxes. You can
also start looking at income. Right if the twenty twenties
are more volatile, then then it looks like there might
be a better environment for things like buffer dtfs, which
will put some put some shock absorbers on your portfolio,
(10:20):
and focusing more on dividend paying stocks. Maybe you feel
like you've got enough in your nest egg, it's less
growth oriented, but you're still okay with some risk. Well,
then you might you might switch it toward income, and
then as that income comes in, figure out where that
fresh cast should go. Just some different ways to think
about things.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
Yeah, the key here is to build a financial plan
and stress tested, you know, against all kinds of things inflation,
interest rate, fluctuation, you know, a tech bubble, anything like that,
and make sure your long term plan is resilient and
diversified and so you can weather pretty much every storm
that comes down the pike by having a strategy in
(10:55):
place to weather those storms in advance. Here's the all
Worth advice. Don't assume the winners of the past will
be the winners of the future, and overallocate to those
current winners. Build a strategy that works even when the
market leaders change, because they can and will and always
have changed. Coming up next, we've got the new amount
(11:17):
you might have to pay for healthcare costs during retirement,
and the number is staggering.
Speaker 2 (11:23):
How to best prepare? Next?
Speaker 3 (11:24):
You're listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial
on fifty five KR see the talk station.
Speaker 5 (11:30):
Worth Financial a registered investment advisory firm. Any ideas presented
during this program are not intended to provide specific financial advice.
You should consult your own financial advisor, tax consultant, or
a state planning attorney to conduct your own due diligence.
Speaker 3 (11:50):
You're listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial
on Bob Sponsller along with Brian James. If you can't
listen to Simply Money every night, subscribe and get our
daily podcast. You can listen the following morning during your
commute to work or at the gym. And if you
think your friends or family could use some financial advice.
Speaker 2 (12:08):
Let them know about us as well.
Speaker 3 (12:09):
Just search Simply Money on the iHeart app or wherever
you find your podcast. There's a new step forward in
the push to add a specific alternative investment to your portfolio.
But is it right for you? We're going to talk
about that coming up at six forty three. All right,
We've got two stories tonight that should make every retiree
(12:29):
or pre retiree perk up and pay attention. First, Fidelity
released its twenty twenty five healthcare cost estimate and it
is a startling number for a sixty five year old
couple entering retirement now. And Second, AARP reports that there
are now sixty three million unpaid family caregivers in America,
(12:51):
and that's people caring for aging parents and draining their
finances and energy in the process. Brian, there's a lot
to talk talk about here. Let's let's first dig into
this Fidelity report.
Speaker 4 (13:03):
Yeah, so let's dig into Let's get into this. So
this year's estimate from fidelities one hundred and seventy two
five hundred dollars for a sixty five year old couple retiring. Now,
that is up four percent from last year. Ironically, about
four percent is about what we use when we forecast
healthcare expenses. We do increase them for individual people by
about four percent every year. That number coming from Fidelity
(13:24):
includes only that's only including the Medicare premiums themselves, deductibles, copays,
and prescriptions. This has nothing to do with long term
care dental revision, which are things that are for the
most part not covered by Medicare. And a lot of
people don't know that. We think that Medicare picks up
these things, but will it'll pick up doctor visits, hospitalization stuff,
not the longer term things.
Speaker 3 (13:42):
Yeah, So, Brian, not to take you off track here,
but just just to make the point, they're talking about
over one hundred and seventy two thousand dollars for a couple.
And that's just for regular old healthcare costs, you know,
that what people would have to spend over their remaining
lifetime after they retire, not counting any long term care needs.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Right, that's just normal health care costs, right.
Speaker 4 (14:04):
That's normal health care costs. And I want to say
that I think we're actually referring to an individual here,
because that's the normal. The figure we've heard on for
a long time is about three hundred thousand dollars for
a married couple to survive and have health care expenses.
So I think we're actually talking about a one hundred
and seventy two thousand dollars for one individual member of
a couple. Therefore, three hundred and fifty thousand. That rings
(14:24):
true with what we've spoken about for years, with a
decent amount of inflation built into it. Now. So here's
the thing to remember too. Medicare itself is not free, right,
So that's where these numbers are coming from. You're going
to pay for your Part B premiums. Part A is free.
Your Part A is basically hospitalization. Part B is your
doctor bills, prescription drug plan, under Part D and then
as a choice you might make for a metagap or
(14:46):
a Medicare advantage plan. It does all add up quickly,
especially over twenty thirty year retirement. Medicare is a pretty
good thing. I don't have many clients to complain about
the care that they get. Sometimes it's a little frustration
over the administration the red tape, but that's going to
happen no matter what kind of health insurance you have.
So Medicare is a pretty good deal. However, it is
not free. Be sure you budget for it separately from
your normal living expenses.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
So, I mean in the plans that I build for clients,
we take that three hundred and fifty thousand dollars number
and let's just divide it by thirty let's say, and
we we add that cost, you know, on top of
what a couple plans to spend on what I call
normal operating expenses and vacations and charitable gifts and all that.
We want to put that buffer into their financial plan
(15:28):
and stressed us to make sure that the plan's going
to work and they're they're not going to run out
of money. And that's the encouragement here. You got to
build a plan that budgets for this stuff, because this
is not pie in the sky, this might or could
happen kind of stuff. These are real life numbers that
real people are spending in retirement, and you got a
(15:49):
budget for it.
Speaker 2 (15:50):
Brian.
Speaker 3 (15:50):
Let's get into the AARP study. You know, the sixty
three million Americans are now providing unpaid care to a
loved one. That number is up forty five percent for
just from just a decade ago. What's going on there
with caregiving?
Speaker 2 (16:07):
Brian?
Speaker 4 (16:08):
So, yeah, these are other things we have to worry
about here, because sometimes it's not yourself that we're worried about.
With regard to healthcare, AARP and the National Alliance for
Caregiving say about sixty three million Americans are providing unpaid
care to a loved one. Right. That sounds like a
complicated situation, but this is this is no more than
somebody who gets up and goes to their loved one's house,
or maybe it's even somebody that they just not not
(16:29):
even a relative to somebody that they care about and
they're helping out with day to day tasks. And sometimes
this is this is a pivot point for a lot
of people's financial plans. Sometimes this results in one, you know,
somebody having to take less hours, you know, work part
time or in extreme cases, you know what, nobody can
care for my for my parents, so it's gonna have
to be me. So we are going to create our
(16:50):
own household and we will find a way to live
off of my parents' social security, my parents' pension. So
this isn't we're not necessarily talking about somebody with a
with a living type of a health care provider. This
just somebody who has another job, but they providing this
unpaid care to a level and that is up forty
five percent from ten years ago. That is a huge number.
In other words, people are opting to have their own
(17:10):
family and friends come in to provide care on a
free basis versus and we're not talking about you know,
long term care type of arrangements here. The stress from
this bob is real. So half of these caregivers say
they spend over twenty four hours a week on caregiving.
That is it. That's a full time job. I mean
caring for another person. Even if it's only twenty four hours,
ill bet feels like forty eight hours. Four and ten
of them are providing or performing some pretty high intensity
(17:31):
medical tasks too with little or no training, which is
of course emotionally and financially exhausting for both of the
people involved in this. These types of arrangements.
Speaker 3 (17:40):
Yeah, the time spent on this is a drain. And
then you throw in the part where you're performing some
of these you know, what they call high intensity medical tasks.
In other words, we're trying to perform tasks that we're
not medically trained to perform because we're just trying to
do the best we can to care for our loved ones.
That is a real emotional drain and time drain on people.
(18:03):
And I guess the point we're trying to make here
in this segment is you've got to factor some of
this stuff into your own retirement planning. And where the
rubber meets the road here is you might your parents
might have the assets.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
You might have assets, but if.
Speaker 3 (18:15):
You're pulled out of the workforce early to care for
a parent, or if your own healthcare expenses rise way
faster than expected, that plan can quickly go off track. So,
like everything else, the sooner you plan ahead for this
kind of stuff, you know, even looking at long term
care insurance, if it makes sense for your plan, do
(18:36):
that in your late forties and early fifties. Don't wait
until your mid sixties or seventies to do this because
the expense, it gets very expensive, very quickly. And these
costs aren't just line items. They're major life disruptors, especially
when you're talking about custodial care or care in a facility.
Speaker 2 (18:55):
You need liquidity for healthcare.
Speaker 3 (18:57):
You got to have flexibility for your family's care and
maybe even some professional support, you know, like people coming
into the home. And none of this stuff is cheap.
And Brian, we're seeing more and more families have to
deal with this and it's very disruptive to multiple family
members at times.
Speaker 4 (19:15):
It really can me And you mentioned long term care.
One of the things I like to highlight long term
care insurance can be a solution to this. But just
to give people some some numbers to kind of chew on.
If you're thinking about this, if you're a married couple
and you want a plan that's going to cover basically everything,
we never have to worry about it again, you're probably
looking at a ten to twelve maybe thirteen thousand dollars
expense every single year. That's a good good. You know,
insurance planned but obviously expensive too. You might look into
(19:38):
if you have an old cash value life insurance plan
that you no longer need the death benefit for you
can sometimes convert those into something that will provide long
term care. So that is something to look into before
you assume you need to go out and pay for
a term based long term care policy.
Speaker 3 (19:51):
Here's the all Worth advice. Healthcare and caregiving aren't surprises.
They're near certainties nowadays. Plan for them with the same
rigor you apply to your investment strategy, and your retirement
plan will thank you later. Coming up next, we've got
the biggest estate planning mistakes and how to avoid them.
You're listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial
(20:12):
on fifty five KRC.
Speaker 2 (20:13):
The talk station Hi.
Speaker 1 (20:15):
Coach Brindaughters is fifty five KRC and iHeartRadio station.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
You're listening to Simply Money presented by all Worth Financial.
I'm Bob Sponseller along with Brian James, joined tonight by
our estate planning expert from the law firm of Wood
and Lamping, mister Dan Perry. Dan thanks as always for
making time for us tonight and I know you want
to talk about a very important topic, avoiding the biggest
estate planning mistakes that people often make out there.
Speaker 6 (20:48):
Fill us in, Dan, Yeah, thanks again for having me.
Today's topic is one of my favorites because these mistakes
are so common, but yet they're so preventable. And the
first and probably biggest mistake is not having a plan
at all. I can't tell you how many times I
hear people say I'm not rich enough to need an
(21:09):
estate plan.
Speaker 2 (21:10):
But here's the truth.
Speaker 6 (21:12):
If you own anything a house, a bank account, even
a car, you have in a state, and if you
don't make a plan, the state will make one for
you through what they call the probate process, and that
often means delays, unnecessary legal fees, and people inheriting things
you never intended. I had a case recently where someone
died without a will and his adult children ended up
(21:34):
fighting in court for two years over a house worth
one hundred and eighty thousand dollars. He had just taken
ninety minutes to meet with an attorney. That entire nightmare
could have been avoided. The second big mistake I see
is outdated or poorly drafted documents, especially do it yourself
wills We've seen the online templates or software programs, and
(21:57):
the problem is these generic forms can't out for your
specific situation and they often lead to ambiguities. For instance,
did you update your will after your divorce? Did you
name a guardian for your minor children? Are your beneficiary
designations consistent with your estate plan? I've reviewed wills that
were downloaded from the internet only to find that they
(22:17):
were invalid under Ohio law, and that's really a ticking
time bomb for your family.
Speaker 4 (22:22):
Hey, Dan, question for you, there is there a good time?
You know, like, yes, if I have a life changing
event like with those incidence as you just described, then yeah,
that should be a trigger that maybe I need to
adjust my state planned documents. But is this something that
people should work in, you know, like we change our
batteries and our smoke detectors every time the time changes.
Is there some time that you would recommend that people
(22:42):
just you know, try to have a thought that maybe
I need to review things, even if there isn't a
trigger like that.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
Sure.
Speaker 4 (22:49):
Absolutely.
Speaker 6 (22:50):
We tell clients to call us every three years. Hopefully
nothing's changed. Hopefully the law has never changed, but you know,
give us a call every three years. Do take the
time to do a review, but yet give your attorney
a call every three years just to see if things
have changed, got it. Another silent killer that we see
(23:11):
is with outdated beneficiary designations. You might have a will
that says your current spouse gets everything, but you got
that old four ROH and K from a job two
jobs ago. It still names your ex spouses the beneficiary.
Well guess what that ex is getting the money. Your
will does not override beneficiary forms. That goes the same
with joint accounts, transfer on death deeds, payable on death accounts.
(23:34):
If your asset titles do not match your state plan,
it causes confusion and often litigation. Another mistake is not
communicating your wishes to your family. Even a perfect plan
can fall apart if your family is left in the dark.
So what should you do. Well, let someone know where
your documents are, share who your executor and trustees are,
(23:55):
and consider writing a letter of intent explaining your reasoning
if you're making uneven gifts. A well ap planned a
state is just as much about preventing conflict as it
is about transferring assets. And finally, the most overlooked aspect
is not planning for what happens if you're alive but
can't manage your affairs, and a complete estate plan is
(24:18):
going to include a durable power of attorney so someone
can manage your finances if you can't, as well as
a healthcare power of attorney and living will so your
medical wishes are clear. And without these, your family may
have to go to court to get a guardianship. That's expensive,
time consuming and emotionally draining, especially during a medical crisis.
Speaker 3 (24:39):
All right, Dan, I want to jump in here just
to amplify the point you made when you started off,
and that's you know, with the preponderance of these online
will and trust packages now and let's face it with AI,
you know this stuff is only growing. I mean, we
have tools that we can use for clients where they
can do their wills and trust, you know, and powers
of attorney to them else it's not a matter of
(25:02):
being able to do it. I think the point you're making,
and it's the point I always make to people. Unless
you are strongly opposed to sitting down with a live
human being expert, a state planning attorney will help let
me help you set you up with one, because filling
out a document is easy.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
Knowing what to do, how to express your wishes.
Speaker 3 (25:25):
And then how to communicate amongst family members is the key,
that's the secret sauce. And I can't I can't count
how many times a good attorney has been worth his
or her weight and goal by their ability to sit
down with a family and actually figure out what the
family wants to do and make sure it gets executed.
(25:46):
So my question to you, Dan is how much of
your time and energy and value add let's call it
is not just the words that you put on the paper,
but the conversations and guidance that you actually give to family,
is when you're sitting in an actual conference room with
them doing what it is that you do for them
every day.
Speaker 6 (26:06):
Yeah, it's a great question. And as I tell clients
that are sitting down with me, you know, my job
is not rafting the documents. You know, ten percent of
my job with you is doing that. Yeah, but is
just having a discussion with you. What does the family want?
What's your goals here? How do you want your assets
(26:27):
to transfer to debt? Are you concerned about long term care?
Speaker 4 (26:31):
Okay?
Speaker 6 (26:32):
How do we implement a plan under the law that's
going to work for you and your family, and so
ninety percent of my job is having these discussions with
clients and explaining the law and developing a plan of
how we get there.
Speaker 2 (26:47):
And knowing what questions to ask.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
That's so, that's so key, all right, Dan, thanks as
always for joining us tonight. You're listening to Simply Money,
presented by all Worth Financial on fifty five KRC, the
talk Station, Every Hour.
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Fifty five KRC, the Talk Station.
Speaker 3 (27:43):
You're listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial.
I'm Bob sponsorer along with Brian James. Do you have
a financial question you'd like for us?
Speaker 2 (27:51):
To answer.
Speaker 3 (27:51):
There is a red button you can click while you're
listening to the show right there on the iHeart app.
Simply record your question and it will come straight to
us tonight. We've got a big movement in how retirement
portfolios could evolve here in the days and weeks and
years to come. Some of the biggest names on Wall Street,
firms like Blackstone, Apollo, KKR, they're all launching private equity ETFs.
(28:17):
This is a new way to get access to an
asset class that used to be off limits to everyday investors. Brian,
It's about to go mainstream in all kinds of portfolios,
including four to one K plans, and you better believe
Wall Street is betting big on this trend.
Speaker 4 (28:35):
Private credit is the secret word of the day. That's
what we're talking about here. Private credit is basically lending
money to companies that don't go to the traditional route
where you would issue public bonds or going through banks
and getting loans. These are direct loans. Earlier I referenced
to other People's Money OPM. This is basically a company
coming directly to you for a loan, not a bond
that's traded on an exchange or something like that, but
(28:58):
basically your loaning money directly the to the company and
you have a contract between you and so forth. But
this is not a new concept, right, This is all
the time. But what we're talking about here is average
investors being able to access this space through more traditional
type investments like an exchange traded fund. So this has
been a booming asset class around pension funds, insurance companies
offers higher yields. Those types of organizations really rely on steady,
(29:21):
predictable income. That is the appeal here. We're talking about
yield eight to ten percent or more in some cases,
compared to the Treasury bonds that sit around four percent. Now,
it's never that simple, right, This is never as simple
as let me just go find a database and I'll
just find the thing that spits out the highest level
of income. There are risks involved in these and so
we'll get into that in a bit. But so why
(29:42):
is this coming to ETFs now, Bob, tell me about that.
Speaker 3 (29:45):
Well, there's a flood of investor demand for alternative income sources.
Plus private equity firms like the ones we mentioned, Blackstone,
Apollo and others. They're sitting on billions of dollars in
private loans, and they need new buyers for these loans, Brian,
So you know it's I don't I don't know. I've
got thoughts on this good hearkening back to when high
(30:08):
yield bonds just cratered. You know, anytime you've got a
recession and things go south, a lot of unsuspecting people
that are chasing high yield get left holding the bag.
And so it's kinda I love this space. I love
private credit. I mean, these companies. A lot of times
banks don't want to lend to these companies, and there's
(30:28):
a reason for that, and it's called credit risk. So
if someone's you know, promising eight, ten, eleven percent income,
there's a reason for that, and the reason is the
risk is higher, the credit risk is higher. So you
just got to watch out for what you're buying. And
you know, for firms like black Zone and Apollo, they're
holding themselves out as hey, we'll do the underwriting for you,
(30:50):
we'll select a beautiful portfolio of private credit for you.
Speaker 2 (30:54):
And I'm sure they do all the great underwriting and
do a great.
Speaker 3 (30:57):
Job, but that does not alleviate credit risk, especially if
we go into a recession.
Speaker 2 (31:02):
So again, be careful.
Speaker 3 (31:05):
Don't just pile into this stuff because you're enticed by
that eight ninety ten percent yield. There's a reason the
yields higher, because the risk is higher. Brian, Yeah, on
the interest rates too.
Speaker 4 (31:15):
Remember these are floating rate loans. If you are a company,
an organization, or frankly, a person you know that doesn't
have the best credit quality, then you may be a
subject to a floating rate loan. This is the opposite
of like a thirty year fixed mortgage, where you know,
you lock it in and you can stick it on
a spreadsheet and you know exactly what you're gonna pay
and exactly when the whole thing goes away. A floating
rate loan means that the rate that that company has
(31:37):
to pay is is gonna float with interest rates. It
will move around. That means if interest rates drop, your
income drops. That's good for the company who borrowed your money,
but not great for you. If interest rates go up,
your income's gonna go up. Awesome, right, That could push
the company into bankruptcy because if they can't keep up
with it, So you just you might be subject to
a surprise on either side. Just know what you're getting
into just like just like anything.
Speaker 2 (31:57):
Else, all right.
Speaker 3 (31:58):
So, Brian, when you're sitting down and talking to a client,
what are you walking them through? And I guess that's
assuming you know the client has done the right thing
and has come to a good fiduciary financial advisor like yourself, Brian,
who can walk you through the pros and cons of
this stuff.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
And that's really the main encouragement here.
Speaker 3 (32:17):
Make sure before you venture into this space, either in
your four one K plan or in your overall retirement plan,
you do sit down with a good fiduciary advisor that
can walk you through the pros and cons of this
stuff and if and how it fits into an overall plan.
So talk about some of the things that you walk
your clients through as you evaluate this potential asset class
(32:39):
in the client's portfolio.
Speaker 4 (32:40):
Brian, Well, first off, we never lead with a solution, right,
We need to understand the problem first. Private credit may
be an answer to a specific question within someone's financial plan,
but it is not itself a financial plan. So this
assumes we have already gone through and figured out what
are somebody's resources. Here's the savings they put away, the
investments they've had the retirement piles of money and the
retirement streams of income meaning pension and social security, maybe
(33:03):
rental property or whatever. Then next to that we've gone
through and we figured out, here's what they're trying to
do with it. We're going to retire at this point therefore,
and retire in this case means my assets are going
to suffice to support me sustain me for the rest
of my life. That's retirement in my mind. And so
once we've got a clear picture on what needs to happen,
then we can start turning to what are the solutions
that we can put in place to do this. And
(33:25):
Bob I would say, with regard to private credit and
even private equity, or really anything that's a little more
advanced than your standard kind of investment portfolios, you need
to understand at least a little bit, right. You don't
need to be an attorney able to negotiate the contracts
of these things, but you need to understand the concepts.
If it is a little bit too much for you,
or if it feels like it might be just kind
of out of your realm of understanding, then that might
(33:46):
be a red flag right there. Regardless of how great
the investment is because you don't want these things causing
stress when it was unnecessary, because you know, maybe it's
a floating rate situation where the interest rate changed and
that was unexpected for you, And you have to be
at bear in mind the fees on the things. Some
of them can carry internal fees north of one percent.
That's pretty expensive, and you have to make sure you
understand the net income you're getting out of it, including
(34:07):
again that floating rate thing, because guess what that fee
doesn't float That fee is the fee If the interest
rate floats down on you, then you're going to be
getting less out of it, you know, than you might
have expected. So and also liquidity, it can be an issue.
You might be able to sell that ETF, but what
happens to the values of those underlying loans. Credit quality
is everything when it comes to this, because that will
drive the price of the stuff that's inside the ETF.
(34:29):
So just because it's easy to buy doesn't make it
necessarily the right decision for you.
Speaker 3 (34:34):
Yeah, I, and I harken back to you, know how
your bond funds that a lot of listeners out there
have probably had or are used to having in their
portfolios and they're wonderful when everything's going well. You love
that eight nine, ten percent yield. But I'm telling you,
the volatility of this stuff can can start to approach
the volatility of the stock market if we have a
(34:56):
recession or major pullback in the market. So you got
to be careful about this stuff. And I look at
this like adding spice to a stew. A little bit
can add some flavor and a little punch. Too much
and you could possibly ruin the whole dish. And by
the dish, we mean your retirement plan. Here's the all
Worth advice. If you're chasing yield, don't forget about risk.
(35:18):
Private credit ETFs might have a place in your portfolio,
but only strong diversified foundation.
Speaker 2 (35:26):
Coming up next, I've got my two cents on.
Speaker 3 (35:28):
This whole long term care and caring for loved ones
topic because it's a loaded topic. You're listening to Simply Money,
presented by all Worth Financial on fifty five KRC, the
talk station.
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The Events of the day.
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Let's look at the events controversy of the Epstein files. Yes,
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Following these events closely at the fence.
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Talk about it here fifty five krs the talk station.
Speaker 2 (36:23):
You're listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial.
I'm Bob Sponsller.
Speaker 3 (36:27):
Along with Brian James and Brian I'm going to share
my two cents just to piggyback on our prior segment
today talking about planning ahead for these long term care situations.
Speaker 2 (36:38):
And Brian, I, I.
Speaker 3 (36:40):
Can't count how many situations I am running into right
now personally. I mean, we've got colleagues in the office
that are dealing with loved ones, I've got clients in
this situation, and I want to talk a little bit
about how to get out in front of some of
this long term care stuff to avoid some of the
surprises that might come down the pipe and the key
(37:01):
word I want to throw out there.
Speaker 2 (37:03):
The keywords are proactive.
Speaker 3 (37:05):
Communication, meaning I think a lot of times the adult kids,
when they sense that that mom and dad are getting
to the point where help is needed, I think the
kids need to sit down together and formulate a strategy
on how we're going to go about this, not only
from a time standpoint, but financially. And then once you've
(37:26):
got a strategy that all the kids can can can
make work without completely disrupting their families from a from
a financial and a scheduled standpoint, then go in and
sit down with mom and dad and and and kind
of talk through how this is all going to work.
I've kind of I've coached a few a couple of
families in particular through this situation this year, and that
(37:49):
seems to work pretty well. And I'm thinking of one
situation in particular where the husband and these are folks
to work with me for over thirty years.
Speaker 2 (37:58):
The husband passed away last next year.
Speaker 3 (38:01):
The wife does not want to move out of the home,
but she's already fallen down twice and has broken some bones,
and you know, all their memories are in the home.
Speaker 2 (38:10):
Doesn't want to leave.
Speaker 3 (38:11):
The family is spending their entire weekend, you know, going
in shifts taking care of this lady. And rightfully so,
she's a wonderful lady and they love their mother and
all that, but they're just like we talked about in
the prior segment. They're worn out, they're stressed out, they
can't do it anymore. So we're we're now at the
point where they're formulating that strategy, and they got to
(38:32):
go in and tell Mom, Hey, we're at the point
where we got to do something.
Speaker 2 (38:36):
Here, here's what we've decided we're going to do.
Speaker 3 (38:39):
It's not a fun conversation, but the sooner you can
get out in front of this stuff and proactively communicate
amongst the family, the easier this is going to go. Ryan,
you know, I'm sure you've had situations to draw on
like this as well.
Speaker 4 (38:54):
Yeah, this comes up very frequently in the course of
a financial planning engagement. We all start off worried about
our own situations in the dust settles, and then it
comes up, you know what, I think mom and Dad
are gonna need some help coming up, So how can
we work this out? And Bob, you said the keyword
several times, The key word proactive, get out ahead of it,
and I really need that conversation where everybody can level set.
Then then I'm really talking about yes, between you and
(39:16):
the person you're providing care for, obviously, but also the
other family members. Realistically, the way life works, nobody's gonna
be able to put the same level of time and
energy and resources into caring for this person. Somebody's gonna
gonna carry the bulk of the load. That's just the
way it is. And frankly, if you try to spread
it out evenly, it's not gonna work because people will
have different opinions. Somebody has to be in charge. But
if that, if you are that person who cannot be
(39:38):
the primary caregiver, then be mindful of the time and
effort and energy that's going to be expended by your
sibling who is doing the work. Perhaps you are the
one to find a way to give that person a
break every I don't know, four six weeks something like that.
Whatever works out for you and your budget, find a
way to provide outside care, respite care so that your
sibling who's doing the heavy lifting can get some time
to themselves to kind of recover from a little bit
(39:59):
of this.
Speaker 2 (40:00):
A huge burden.
Speaker 3 (40:01):
Yeah, this is not just about putting hypothetical numbers on
a spreadsheet that that that's way easier than actually having
the discussions with family members on how this is actually
going to be implemented. And it's a case by case situation.
It's a very delicate topic. All right, thanks for listening.
You've been listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth
Financial on fifty five KRC the Talk Station, A.
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