October 15, 2025 • 41 mins
On this episode of Simply Money presented by Allworth Financial, Bob and Brian celebrate the third birthday of the latest bull market — and reflect on what an 85% rise in the S&P 500 since 2022 really teaches long-term investors. Then, they explore a hidden risk for high-net-worth investors: complacency. When your wealth grows, it’s easy to think it’ll manage itself. Bob and Brian share how rebalancing, tax strategies, and proactive planning can keep success from turning into vulnerability. Plus, the team answers your most pressing financial questions about Roth IRAs, 5% CDs, and more.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
You.
Speaker 2 (00:00):
I got a lot today, do you. I do got
to put up these Halloween decorations?
Speaker 3 (00:04):
Will It's time to do it, dude?
Speaker 2 (00:06):
The rest I do need to know. On fifty five
krs the talk station.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
Tonight, we celebrate an important birthday that has fueled your portfolio.
If you made the choice to participate. You're listening to
Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial on Bob Sponseller
along with Brian James. October is a very special month.
It's the three year birthday or anniversary of the latest
(00:37):
bull market hats and horns and loud noise makers for
all those who decided to stay in the market back
in October of twenty twenty two. Brian, it seems like
yesterday we were having a really rough time of it
in twenty twenty two, and lo and behold, we're up
(00:58):
over sixty six hundred on the s P after falling
to a low of a little over thirty five hundred
in twenty twenty two. Amazing how that works if you
stay invested and play the long game. That's right.
Speaker 4 (01:12):
So this very day, October fourteenth of twenty twenty two,
we were all in the depths of misery because that
was the bottom of that bear market of twenty two,
and so twenty twenty two was one of the five
worst years we've ever had. It doesn't come along with
a crazy story, right. It's up there though, with the
nineteen thirty sevens, nineteen seventy four, two thousand and two,
and two thousand and eight. Twenty twenty two is a
(01:34):
fifth worst year we ever had in the stock market.
It just doesn't have a you know, a great depression
or great recession or any of those kind of crazy headlines.
It was just the unwinding of a lot of stuff
after the post COVID run up. But the SNP hit
a low then of above thirty five eighty three, and now,
as you just said, we're over sixty six hundred on
the SMP. So that's an eighty five percent jump in
this three year span. If you panicked in twenty twenty two,
(01:57):
then figure out how to not do that again. You
ignored it like you should, and you let things come back.
Then you were in good shape. You should be sitting
at a point where you've got more money than you
ever had in your entire life.
Speaker 3 (02:08):
All right, Brian, let's go back to twenty twenty two,
and look at the last three years and that eighty
five percent jump. I mean, obviously twenty twenty two, the
big reason the market went down is that's when the
Federal Reserve raised interest rates seven times in that year,
and it just crushed both the stock and the bond market.
But who would have thought with all the headlines and
(02:29):
noise and political division and turmoil and threats of world
war and all this stuff flying around every day, who
would have ever guessed that over the last three years
the market would be up eighty five percent over that
period of time. And that's really what we're trying to
drive home here is it's all there's never gonna it's
(02:50):
never gonna feel like a good day to put your
money at risk in the stock market. I would have
never have guessed we'd be where we are today. And
I don't know, how were you feeling in twenty twenty two,
And are you surprised at where we are today?
Speaker 4 (03:05):
Same as I felt after two thousand and eight and
after two thousand and two. Right, the pattern doesn't change.
It's time in the market, not timing the market so
you did. The idea is not to try to avoid
these things. Andy Stout Our chief investment officer puts together
information all the time for us to understand market history,
and I think it's an extremely important thing for everybody
to understand, just to see how things actually work.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
So let's go through a little bit of math.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
Had you invested a million bucks in the S and
P five hundred and twenty years ago, that million dollars
would now be worth about seven point one million. And
that's just sitting there and ignoring it. That's not doing
anything cute with it. That's not getting into any of
the latest crazes or the meme stocks or crypto or
anything like that. That's just the five hundred largest American
companies and what they've done for a seven time.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
Increase in your portfolio. There. That's if you left it alone.
Speaker 4 (03:53):
Now, let's say out of those seven six hundred and
fifty days or however many days it was, had you
missed ten of them, then that million dollars would be
worth only about three point three million. I'm literally talking
about ten trading days out of thousands upon thousands of
trading days in that twenty time or in that twenty
year period.
Speaker 3 (04:11):
So you missed, you missed the ten best days, and
you gave up over half of the return over a
twenty year period by missing the ten best that best days.
That's really hard to believe, but those are the facts.
Those are fact the fact that's right now, let's make
it even worse. Had you missed the twenty best days.
When we say missed, what I mean is, whoops. The
market is kind of bumpy right now.
Speaker 4 (04:32):
I'm gonna get out and stay out until until I
feel it's better, which means you've already eaten a little bit.
Nobody's gonna nail the you know, the exit point. The
market's coming down a little bit. You're gonna permanently lock
in that loss, and then you're gonna miss the upswing
because you're never gonna You're not gonna hit the upswing
anymore than than you missed the downswing. So had you
missed the best twenty days, now your million bucks is
(04:52):
only worth about two that's doubling over twenty years, which
is a really really sad return. If you miss the
best thirty days now at this point, you're basically not
making any money. You've made one point of your million
would now be worth one point three. So one month
out of the last twenty years worth of trading days.
That's where all the return has come from. Don't get cute,
don't try to time the market. You don't know better
(05:12):
than anybody else.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
Well in that in that thirty days, thirty days over
twenty years, missing it that million bucks, like you just said,
it's worth one point three million dollars, Brian, that's only
a one point three percent annualized game. That doesn't even
keep pace with inflation, to say nothing of taxes.
Speaker 4 (05:31):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
And unfortunately people have this kind of experience because they're
in and out, in and out, they cave into fear.
And you know, at that point, if you're gonna miss
those best thirty days over twenty years, you might as
well just put it in cash, put it in a CD.
These numbers are powerful and it and it lends, you know,
to the real point that we're trying to make. Patience
(05:53):
is the key here, walk us through some more numbers. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (05:58):
So most of the time, if you think about it,
this is what we're saying is most of the time,
the market does a bunch of nothing. All we did
was pull thirty days out of twenty years, and we
basically made the market do nothing over the past twenty years,
even though we started with an example of a seven
time return over that timeframe. So the majority of trading days, Bob,
they don't end with huge gains and losses.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
They kind of go up a little bit and go
down a little bit.
Speaker 4 (06:20):
Over those So let's unpack that a little bit over
the last Over the past three years, just since twenty
twenty two, again ending literally today October fourteenth, of twenty
twenty five, we've had seven hundred and fifty trading days.
Of those, four hundred and fifteen have had an average
daily gain of point seven percent, the other three hundred
and thirty five and average loss of point six percent, So
that almost cancels out, except that there are more updates
(06:43):
than down days. So if you compound that tiny point
zero three percent edge over seven hundred fifty days all
of a sudden, instead of just adding up to twenty
two and a half percent, it's snowballs. Every day's gain
builds on the last. That's compounding, and it happens in
the background, but it can't if you kick the legs
of the stool out from under by trying to time.
Speaker 3 (07:02):
Yeah, the point is that your portfolio growth takes time
in most days it's gonna feel like it's doing nothing,
and you do have to sit through some volatility, like
what's gone on, let's say over the last few days,
up down, up down. That's all part of the game,
the game, and you've got to remain patient and discipline
(07:22):
and not worried about or focus on what's happening every
single day, because most days not much is happening at all. Now, Brian,
this doesn't mean that we've never had some extended bear markets.
You know, since nineteen forty nine, we've had twelve bull
markets and twelve bear markets. Again, since nineteen forty nine,
(07:47):
the same number of bull and bear markets.
Speaker 4 (07:50):
Well, Bob, if we've had just as many bulls as bears,
then how can we possibly have made any money.
Speaker 3 (07:55):
That doesn't make any sense. Well, here's the key, and
this is really important. The average length of those bull
markets has been five years and five months, with an
average total return of two hundred and seventy percent over
that time. For each of the bear markets, the average
length of each bear market has just been one year
(08:16):
and one month, with an average total loss of only
thirty two percent over every bear market. So you don't
have to be a genius or a math wizard to
know that even though the number of bearing, the gains
that you get in bull markets far outweighs any pullbacks
that we have in bear markets. And that's why long
(08:38):
term investors always win.
Speaker 4 (08:41):
Yeah, And so the idea is to stay invested in
and ride it out because the bull markets are longer
and go higher than the bear markets last and that
the bear markets go down. So volatility is to be expected, right,
We're always going to have the ups and downs. US
stocks have experienced corrections, averaging fourteen percent down since nineteen eighty,
(09:02):
so that's pretty average. We had one to ten percent
earlier earlier this year in April that was no fund.
Speaker 3 (09:07):
It was more than it was more than ten. I mean,
it was getting close to, if not over, that fourteen percent.
And let's face it, everyone was freaking out because we'd
never seen the reason why before. We had never seen,
you know, a president of the United States hold up
a chart saying we're going to tear if the entire world,
you know, simultaneously back in eight oh nine, we'd never
(09:31):
seen a housing crisis like what we saw then. You know,
the reasons for these bear markets are always new. You know,
think of COVID. No one had ever seen anything like
COVID during their lifetime, so we we have a tendency
to think that, well, this time it's different. You know,
this time, the market's never going to return just because
it goes downcent But expect in terms of a market
(09:56):
plock market, that's normal, and that's what we kind of
call the price of admission, the price of being involved. Yeah,
and then there's always an upswing that follows it.
Speaker 4 (10:04):
So take this, for example, from nineteen forty nine to
twenty twenty four, if we see a twenty percent pullback,
Historically speaking, these are not estimates, these are real numbers.
Whenever the market pulls back twenty percent from those set
seventy five year period going back to right after World
War Two, a twenty percent drop has rebounded with a
forty six percent return over the next three years and
(10:24):
seventy three percent over the next five years.
Speaker 3 (10:26):
So don't screw with the long term investments.
Speaker 4 (10:28):
Remember, there are people sitting at the top of all
of our publicly traded companies and they are navigating, they
are making decisions, They are pulling levers and pushing buttons
to try to make those companies profitable again. When the
market pulls back, it's simply saying I don't see how
you're going to be profitable here in the short run,
and changes are made, layoffs happen, new products are discovered,
new markets are discovered, and we move on. The United
(10:50):
States a profit margin has always been that way, and
that's why we always have that recovery. The stock market is.
It's not detached from anything else for the purpose of
measuring opinions on how profitable companies will be. And as
long as there is human greed out there, someone is
going to push the ball forward because it is by
far the best way to create a bigger pile of money.
Speaker 3 (11:13):
Here's the all Worth advice. The most accomplished investors will
they exhibit unwavering discipline regardless of current market conditions. This
bull market may have some folks thinking they've quote unquote
made it financially. Coming up next, why that sense of
success might actually be the biggest risk to your long
(11:34):
term wealth. You're listening to Simply Money, presented by all
Worth Financial on fifty five KRC the talk station in
the Middle East.
Speaker 2 (11:41):
We have all to work together to make sure that
it happens.
Speaker 3 (11:44):
In the day's news for bariently toward one of the
longest shutdowns in American history.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
More Off the Government is off China US trade war
affecting the market fifty five KRC the talk station.
Speaker 5 (11:55):
All Worth Financial a registered investment advisory firm. Any idea
is presented during this program are not intended to provide
specific financial advice. You should consult your own financial advisor,
tax consultant, or a state planning attorney to conduct your
own due diligence.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
You're listening to Simply Money is thated by all Worth
Financial and Bob spond Seller along with Brian James. If
you can't listen to Simply Money live every night, subscribe
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(12:36):
Straight Ahead at six forty three. We are digging into
some of your most pressing financial questions, like when to
move money out of CDs that are paying five percent,
what to do when you're sitting on big games in
your brokerage account, and more. Well, there's this natural tendency
to believe that once you've built a big you know,
(12:57):
net worth or big pile of wealth, it just runs
on autopilot. It's self sustaining. You don't have to worry
about it anymore. You don't have to optimize anything. The
market's been doing great, like we've just illustrated, so we'll
just ride it out and watch. Well, the more money
you have, the more exposed you might be. Bigger balances
(13:19):
mean bigger tax bills, more estate planning complications, and more
risks in terms of dollar amounts and volatility if you
allow your asset allocation to drift off target. Brian, let's
walk through some of these moves that a lot of
wealthier investors just you know, kind of don't pay attention to.
(13:41):
They can really make a huge difference if they do
a little proactive planning and get strategic about their money. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (13:48):
So one of the areas where complacency can be a problem,
where if I start ignoring things, well, things get a
little bit out of whack, Bob. So maybe I was
in a sixty to forty nine balanced conservative portfolio when
I set my plan, but if I haven't touched it
in these past three years of this really strong bull market.
But I might be sitting on a portfolio that's no
longer sixty percent stocks, it's eighty percent stocks.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
That's a good thing.
Speaker 4 (14:08):
We want growth, but that's the whole point of needing
to rebalance an asset allocation and diversification. You're not going
to know that until a correction hits, and it hits
a little harder than you thought it would. You thought
it would, well, that means you were probably out of
whack to begin with. So so you had a little
too much exposure in the more volatile thing. Another element, Bob,
is tax loss harvest thing. You look like I want
(14:28):
to say something, Bob, So I'm gonna give you. Well,
I'll give you a second there now, Well good, I
want to go back to that first point. I mean,
because I see this happen once in a while. You allow,
you know, people allow their portfolio.
Speaker 3 (14:38):
To get like you said, move from that initial sixty
percent stock up to eighty eighty five percent you know stocks,
and then we get that you know, annual fourteen percent decline,
and then the phone rings and say should we get out? Well,
what you should have done is trim some of the game.
The market was up and you and I have been
(14:59):
talking about of that. It seems like for the last
two or three weeks now, keeping your allocation in balance
where it needs to be according to your risk tolerance,
so you don't freak out when we get a little volatility,
you know, I just bring that up because that happens
from time to time. Yeah, that's what some of my
phone calls are about. I don't know. Do you go
(15:20):
through anything similar with your clients.
Speaker 4 (15:22):
Absolutely, and we always go over you know, here, let's
talk about what's working in the portfolio and what's not
working as well, right, because an asset allocated portfolio diversification
by definition means you're gonna have something that's leading the
pack doing great, and you're gonna have something that's bringing
up the rear end. But those things are never going
to stay the same. For years, it's been the international
and emerging market stocks that have kind of lagged the
rest of the pack. But that is not the case
(15:43):
this year. You're up, you know, twenty five thirty percent
in your international position, assuming you kept it in place.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
A lot of people walked away.
Speaker 4 (15:50):
From it over the last decade when when those positions
were simply not performing as well, as the US based stocks,
so make sure you've got a good allocation there. The
United States is changing how it's perceived by the rest
of the world. For you know, good batter and different.
That's what's happening, and the world is changing its perception.
Therefore opportunities are being found elsewhere.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
All right, I interrupted you before, Brian, you wanted to
talk about I think tax loss harvesting and dovetailing that
with concentrated stock positions.
Speaker 4 (16:18):
I have here stuff to share, time, time to start
thinking about this stuff. We're getting close to you close
to go time here in Q four. So that means
hopefully your advisor or you are looking for proactively looking
for losses to harvest, or maybe if you've got something
that's sitting at a significant gain, sell that too to
to to realize that.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
Gain and not lose the dollars.
Speaker 4 (16:39):
But I'll offset it with some kind of if there's
a loss in a position at a loss position, then
go ahead and offset the game with that. Otherwise just
leaving money on the table. Either are puzzle pieces in
front of you that fit directly together, so do that.
If you have a good nest egg. We're not talking
small dollars. Here, good tax planning can easily be a
pretty significant six figure swing over a few years by
(17:01):
taking these taking these steps. Now, this also comes up
with concentrated stocks. People do let their gains run, don't
want to pay the tax, and hey, it ain't broke,
I'm not going to fix it. That doctor just keeps
running and running. Now, all of a sudden, we got
a single position that's maybe thirty or forty percent of
their portfolio, or sometimes this is an employer stock grants
and options, those kinds of things. You have a lot
exposed and not sleeping very well at night. So I
(17:22):
think you got an example for us.
Speaker 3 (17:24):
Yeah, let's take an example. You know, hypothetical couple named
Dan and Lisa. They're in their early sixties. They recently
sold a business. They've got about six million dollars now,
obviously more than enough to feel financially independent. They're smart,
they've worked, they've worked hard, and now they feel like
they've made it and they're coasting. They haven't rebalanced their
(17:45):
portfolio in years, they haven't updated their estate plan since
their kids were in college, and they've made almost no
tax planning moves at all. And Brian this is an
example of what you just talked about. They just let
their portfolio coast up to eighty five percent in stocks,
heavily concentrated in tech stocks. So they've got big embedded
(18:05):
gains in several positions, and now they don't want to
talk about it because they know that taxman is looming
in any moves that they make. They're worried about a
big tax bill. Here's the risk. They're just one correction
away from losing hundreds of thousands of dollars in value,
and they have no guardrails in place, no structured withdrawal plan,
(18:29):
no strategy for wrath conversions, and no estate transition plan.
So everything they've built is exposed. Not because they're reckless,
but because they've just grown comfortable and they just they
just assume that that six million dollar number will manage itself.
And those are the kind of people that will benefit
(18:50):
from working with a good fiduciary advisor to help them
be a good steward of that six million dollars and
make it work even harder for them.
Speaker 4 (18:59):
Yeah, high performer, you've got there for a reason, but
most likely there was somebody pushing you along the way.
So even high performers need accountability, and the irony of
that is, you know, the more money you have, the
more you need somebody asking tough questions to make sure
we're looking under every stone for things that can go
wrong and possibly for missed opportunities. But very often sometimes
high net worth investors stop listening to that. We hit
(19:21):
a point where we checked the box. I've made it.
I've made my fortune. You know, I must be doing
something right. Therefore nothing needs to change. But as we
just talked about with the example of the international stock positions,
markets do change. There's also tax laws that change your goals,
your own personal situation may change. So it's an ongoing
conversation really that never stops. Even Tiger Woods has a
(19:41):
swing coach at the top of his game, he still
had people in his ear telling him what was going
well and what wasn't. So he could have somebody in
arms length away who would see things that he wouldn't.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
That's what a financial advisor does. Yeah, the people who
stay sharp, the ones who preserve their wealth and even
continue to grow it. They treat financial planning like a
skill to maintain, not just a box they checked one time.
Here's the all worth advice. The moment you feel like
you've quote unquote made it is exactly when you need
(20:11):
to stay engaged because success can't protect you from complacency.
Here's a question you may have asked yourself, should I
invest in real estate? We're gonna look at the pros
and cons coming up next. You're listening to Simply Money
presented by all Worth Financial on fifty five KRC, the
talk station Allot the Straight Jacket.
Speaker 5 (20:32):
This is fifty five KARC and iHeartRadio station.
Speaker 3 (20:40):
You're listening to Simply Money presented by Allworth Financial on
Bob Sponseller along with Brian James, joined tonight by our
real estate expert, Michelle Sloan, owner of Remax Time and Michelle.
This is a topic that Brian and I are excited
to get into because it comes up all the time
with our clients. Is real estate a good investment, especially
(21:01):
now considering prices are higher than ever? You know, talk
about pros and cons of real estate as an investment, Well, it.
Speaker 6 (21:10):
Is no matter what whether you're buying a home that
is for your personal use, or buying a home that
you're going to use as a rental or a vacation home,
or an airbnb. It is an investment one way or another.
It's the biggest investment that you're ever going to make.
So the question is do you try to jump into
the market right now when we have talked about the
(21:32):
home sales year over year are up seven percent, So yes,
the prices of homes are up. They are higher than
they were, but we don't anticipate them to be lower
anytime soon. So you get in today, it's going to
be a better price most likely than it will be
(21:53):
a year from now. And you have to you have
to do your own financial planning, and you have to
talk to peopeople that know your situation, because every situation
is different. Are you going to need a mortgage, Well,
you're gonna have to bake in that interest rate, in
those closing costs, and maybe you have to do some
repairs depending on what you're looking for. You want to
(22:16):
you want to look at the big picture. If you're
gonna pay cash, the different story you may not have
as much to you. You're not gonna have that overhead
of a mortgage payment and the interest rate and all
of that stuff. So there seems to be an awful
lot of buyers today that.
Speaker 4 (22:38):
On the topic of the mortgage there except for those
people looking maybe for a second home. These are people
who tend to be, of course, you know, maybe retired
or maybe you're about to retire. Is can you talk
a little bit about the challenge of getting a mortgage
if you're you may have plenty of assets but no income.
Some banks are cool with that, some banks aren't, even
though you've got a lot of money in the bank.
Speaker 3 (22:55):
And what kind of situations have you seen like.
Speaker 6 (22:57):
That, Yeah, you have to shop around. I am fine
that A lot of buyers in that situation who maybe
are in their seventies and they're retired, they still have
some income, it may not be as much as if
they were working full time, and more often than not,
they're going to put maybe seventy or eighty percent down
(23:17):
in cash and then only get a small mortgage. And
that's really the way to go if you have the
means to do that. That way, you know you're not
using all of your cash, uh, and you have leaving
some of that available and then you're only taking out
a small mortgage. You might have to do just a
little bit of shopping, but there are definitely lenders out
there who can help you all.
Speaker 3 (23:39):
Right, Michelle, I'm curious because I think we have to
distinguish between you know, when we buy a home, are
we buying it to live in it or you know,
a second home you know vacation destination to live in it,
or are we buying it as a rental income source,
you know, a true one hundred percent investment property. Talk
about the whole property for rental income market right now.
(24:04):
How are average rents trending? Are you seeing people successfully
handle rental property right now when you factor in all
the tax benefits of the depreciation You've already talked about
potential appreciation of the home price to say nothing in
the rental income. Is that still working right now as
a good cash flow investment strategy.
Speaker 6 (24:25):
Absolutely, there is always opportunities in the real estate industry.
I think that you have to decide if you're buying
a home as rental income. A lot of the HLAs
have tightened down. And this is the one thing that
I get questioned, awful an awful lot. I have three
hundred thousand dollars to spend. I want to buy a
(24:48):
rental property. I'd like to be maybe get a condo
or something like that. So I don't have to do
all of the maintenance. What can you find for me? Well,
that's to be more of a challenge because if you
are buying a condo for rental purposes, oftentimes the HOA
(25:08):
has clamped down and not allowing rentals in a lot
of communities. So again it's a lot of research, but
there are opportunities. And then if you have to think
about if you're buying a rental single family home, you're
going to have maintenance. Who's going to take care of
the yard, the lawn, the exterior, that kind of thing.
(25:32):
The average rent right now in Cincinnati is about fourteen
hundred dollars a month. Uh, that sounds so high, but
and it is, but and it has the rent has
rows seven point four percent, So you want to do
some calculations, you know.
Speaker 4 (25:52):
So is it even possible because I'll have people throw
this out every now and then they inherit money, they
retire and so forth, is it really even possible? Because
we get this idea that hey, I'll just buy a
property and I'm gonna airb and be it. That was
cool maybe fifteen years ago you could actually you know,
make a little cash flow it.
Speaker 3 (26:08):
Yeah, you could totally make it pay for itself.
Speaker 4 (26:10):
But now I'm feeling like it maybe may know, it
may get you just under a break even, but you're
gonna lose money.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
Am I wrong?
Speaker 6 (26:15):
There just seems like every situation I look at it,
there's a lot of work involved and people don't see that.
You know, you every time somebody's in and out, you
have to clean. And then if they bust things up,
you know you're gonna have to fix things. And then
you read it like a rental for a reason. Yeah, yeah,
you know, an airbnb. I think again, it sounds great,
(26:37):
but I would do I would do. Buyer beware if
you're planning to do something like that, because there are
a lot of hitting costs that you may not consider. Yeah,
it sounds perfect, you know, buy let's buy a cool
place in downtown Cincinnati overlooking the river, and you know
we'll airbnb it and we'll get one thousand dollars a night. Well, well,
(27:00):
you're not always going to be rented. It's it's gonna
cost you money. You're going to have to hire somebody
unless you're going to do the work, unless you're going
to clean after every person, and.
Speaker 4 (27:11):
You're going to be in this thing. Yeah, you're gonna
be in it more than you ever intended to.
Speaker 3 (27:15):
Absolutely, Well, it's a lot of work, Michelle. You know
something that that I've become aware of here in recent months,
you know, is you brought up the hoa's. I think
you got to do your due diligence on the financial
condition of that hoas because insurance rates are climbing, So
these condo buildings are in need of repairs, which means
assessments and depending on the location, you know, big time assessments.
(27:41):
You know, think about areas in Florida where these these
condos that are forty fifty years old are not hurricane proof.
You know, you got to look beyond just the price
of the place and what you think you can rent
it for, right And so are there particular locations you're
seeing that are very attractive versus you know, big watch
out signs, you know that.
Speaker 6 (28:03):
And that's a really good question, and it really is
going to it's going to be very personal. So if
the rentals that Scott and my own, they're all local,
so if we need to get to them quickly, we can.
But thinking of I would never buy personally a rental
in Florida because I can't keep my eyes on it.
Speaker 3 (28:25):
It's kind of like owning a bar.
Speaker 6 (28:28):
If you're not in that bar all the time, people
are going to be drinking your alcohol and they're going
to be stealing from the till unless you're there and
monitoring the situation, or maybe hiring somebody that you know
and trust. So as far as a location, it really
really depends on what type of property you're looking for.
(28:49):
If you're looking for a little higher end property, if
you're looking for something that's, you know, a fixer upper.
There's there's so many options, but the biggest thing that
I can say is planning is key. Connect with a
smart financial planner I think we know some, and a
really smart realtor.
Speaker 3 (29:08):
I think we know one of those too. It sounds great. Hey, Thanks,
thanks as always for all your help. Michelle. You're listening
to Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial on fifty
five KRC the talk station. The Shumer shutdown, Trump shutdown.
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Fifty five KRC and iHeartRadio Station.
Speaker 3 (30:06):
You're listening to Simply Money sent up by all Worth
Financial on Bob Sponseller along with Brian James. Do you
have a financial question you'd like for us to answer.
There's a red button you can click while you're listening
to the show right in the iHeart app. Simply record
your question and it will come straight to us. All right.
Brian Martin and Lovelin has one for you. He says,
(30:27):
we're retired and we're drawing from our portfolio. How do
we decide which accounts to tap first? Taxable accounts? Iras
roth irays, how do we decide to make that money
last longer?
Speaker 4 (30:40):
Yeah, this is a great question and it's a good
thing to tackle early on to understand the differences between
all these accounts. So so really, with the you might
have a lot of different accounts. There could be fifteen
accounts in one household, but there's really only a handful
of tax treatments.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
So some things are tax deferred.
Speaker 4 (30:56):
That's oftentimes you're iras, and four in case you've never
paid tax or those things can also be roth, meaning
you paid you didn't get a deduction up front, so
you technically pay taxes on the front end but no
taxes on the back. Or you can have you might
have a taxable account, this is something that spits out
of ten ninety nine every year on the dividends, and
maybe they are capital gains and those kinds of things.
So those are the three basic tax treatments. So here's
(31:18):
some ways to think about it. A good rule of
thumb is to spend those taxable accounts first, then your
tax deferred ones, and save those wroth iras for a last.
Speaker 3 (31:28):
That's now let's get more specific.
Speaker 4 (31:30):
There are exceptions to this, but that's that's kind of
a good way to just start thinking about it. Since
the WROTH money is tax free and there's no require
minimum distributions, we're not trying to avoid those at age
seventy five or seventy three, so let the ross run
put them on the back end, and your kids are
also going to inherit them a little more efficiently.
Speaker 3 (31:46):
So, but let's talk about more specific situations.
Speaker 4 (31:48):
If you're at a low tax bracket early in retirement,
you might fill up those brackets by going ahead and
taking proactively strategic IRA withdrawals and paying taxes a little
earlier than you have to, but otherwise doing it at
a lower bracket because you have less income.
Speaker 3 (32:02):
You also might do partial Roth conversions at this time.
Speaker 4 (32:05):
Not only is that going to turn it into tax
free income from here on out, it's also going to
reduce future require minimum distributions and you're going to control
your taxes later when Social Security and Medicare kicks in.
So hopefully that helps. That helps answer that question a
little bit. Let's move on to Jerry and Westchester, and
Jerry says, if Roth accounts are so tax efficient, why
wouldn't we just stick all of our dollars into that
instead of traditional iras and four O one k's what
(32:27):
do you think of that?
Speaker 3 (32:27):
Bob Well, I say to Jerry that that might be
exactly what you want to do, I mean, depending on
your situation. So kudos to you for thinking about this stuff.
You know up front, so here, but here's how I'd
answer the question. Anytime we get into a discussion or
you have to do the analysis on this WROTH versus
regular iran four oh one K you got you gotta
(32:49):
build some assumptions into your long term financial plan, things
like what are tax rates now based on your current income,
What do you think tax rates are going to be
down the road, what are your income needs gonna be.
So there's some there's some work that goes into this
to come up with a plan to determine whether it
does make sense to defer taxes now. Most of the time,
(33:14):
you know, the traditional iras in four oh one k's
make the most sense for people that are in a
high income tax bracket now and think they're going to
be in a lower tax bracket you know, when they retire.
So you got to run the numbers. But look, there's
nothing wrong with the WROTH iren in case, there's a
lot right with the WROTH accounts, there's nothing wrong with it.
(33:36):
The key here is to match the strategy with your
individualized financial plan to determine which mix of WROTH versus
regular accounts make the most sense for you. And again
it has to do with a lot to do with
your current income now, the tax bracket you're in now
versus where you think you're going to be down the road.
(33:57):
And then everybody has an opinion on where tax rates
are headed. We'll leave that for another day, but hope
that helps Jerry. All right, Rachel and fort Mitchell. You know,
says Brian. We've got cash and CDs earning over five percent,
but rates won't stay that high forever. How do we
transition back into longer term investments when the time comes?
Speaker 4 (34:18):
All right, Rachel, This is a very common question now
because when interest rates finally got off the mat a
few years ago and we all slowly began to remember
that we're allowed to get paid on our deposits, a
lot of people put money into in the CDs and
kind of lock some of these rates in. Well, those
are starting to come due now and we've got decisions
to make. Yields are coming down. The Federal Reserve has
cut rates, has cut interest rates a little bit and
as problem and is expected to have a few more
(34:40):
of those too, which is going to be good for
your stock market portfolio, but not great for where you're
trying to lock in those yields.
Speaker 3 (34:45):
So really the think of it like this. Think of
it this way. We're kind of turning down a dimmer switch.
You're not flipping light switch.
Speaker 4 (34:52):
Instead of moving everything at once, reinvestings gradually maybe every
quarter or as those CDs mature. That's a way to
kind of force yourself to dollar cost aver. You're not
throwing everything into your stock and bond portfolio at the
worst possible time, because you're gonna spread it out over time.
You also could look at what something called a bond ladder,
which basically means let's say you buy you know, I'll
make up an example.
Speaker 3 (35:11):
You've got fifty thousand dollars.
Speaker 4 (35:12):
You put ten thousand dollars into five different bonds coming
due each year over the next five years. That's going
to lock in the yields where they currently are, but
also create liquidity on an annual basis.
Speaker 3 (35:24):
That's the basic function of a bond ladder.
Speaker 4 (35:26):
So you know, it's just think of it as a
as a as a process, not a Okay, I'm done
with CDs today and now I'm all in the stock market,
so just be don't don't make it more complicated than
it has to be to get back in. So we're
gonna move on to John and Anderson. John's had an
advisor for a long time, and he says they're starting
to wonder about how to evaluate performance beyond just the returns.
(35:46):
What should they really be measuring in determining whether this
advisor's providing value for them, Bob.
Speaker 3 (35:52):
Well. John also said, you know, they've been working with
the same advisor for years, and he's just starting to
wonder how to evaluate the performance not just of market returns,
but advisors. And here's my answer. And and this this
is somewhat I guess might be controversial to some. I
think most people in our business, Brian, feel free to disagree.
(36:12):
Whether it's fiduciary advisors, commission based brokers, people holding them
south themselves out as investment advisors. You know, let's face it,
eighty over almost eighty percent of all actively managed you know,
accounts net of fees underperform their peer group index again
(36:33):
over two thirds, close to eighty percent. So you gotta,
you gotta, you got to conclude that the value added
here in any financial advisor relationship is not in that
advisor saying I'm gonna beat the market every year. It's
all the other stuff they do for you, the tax efficiency,
the estate planning, the truly comprehensive financial plan, putting behavioral
(36:57):
guardrails around some of the decisions that people may keeping
them from making decisions from what they might not be
able to recover from. That's where the value is added.
And if your advisor is not current advisor is not
adding that kind of value, you might want to get
a second opinion from a good fiduciary advisor. Coming up next,
(37:17):
I've got my two cents on why people don't stay
more disciplined from a long term standpoint in the stock market.
You're listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial
on fifty five KRC the talk station Mark Levin.
Speaker 1 (37:33):
Let me tell you, so, the Internet is breeding evil,
breeding evil.
Speaker 2 (37:37):
And TikTok is the main culprit.
Speaker 1 (37:39):
And I don't know what's happening with TikTok, but that
damn thing needs to be sold now and it needs
to be cleaned up. And I don't want to hear
about free speech and everything else. It's a private company.
The company needs to clean it up because this is
crazy between the communist Chinese and all the crap that
people put.
Speaker 2 (37:55):
On this stuff. Mark Levin tonight at ten oh six
on fifty five KRC, the talk station at the Thompson
House flows.
Speaker 4 (38:02):
I am so worried that next month I have to
choose between groceries for my kids or gas for my car.
Speaker 2 (38:07):
Talk about it here fifty five KRC, the talk station.
Speaker 3 (38:15):
You're listening to. Simply Money said I by all Worth
Financial and Bob Sponsller along with Brian James. All Right, Brian,
I'm gonna throw my behavioral finance cap on here tonight
and talk a little bit about why some investors don't
stay more disciplined, you know, and treat the stock market
like the wonderful long term investment opportunity that it is.
(38:39):
And you know, we threw out a slew of data
earlier in the show today making the case, and it's facts.
There's no opinion there, it's just facts on the benefits
of having a lot of your money in the stock
market long term. I want to talk about why people
don't do it, and I've come up with three most
common reasons. And look, I've been guilty of all three
(39:01):
of these, you know, at some point in time over
the course of my career. I would say one is
control when the market does nothing, and we're used to
running a business and we want to make things happen.
We want we we think we're smart and we think
we can outsmart the market. We think we can pick
stocks and pick you know, time the market in and out.
(39:22):
We just think we're smarter than everyone else, and we
want to control the outcome ourselves. Number two, and this
is a big one, is just the media. Let's face it,
over a ninety percent of the stories we hear all day,
every day in the media are negative. That's what sells
negative headlines, and people just get scared and they say, gosh,
(39:46):
what else could happen bad? I'm going to park my
money on the sidelines and wait for the market to
get better. And as we've already illustrated, you miss the
best ten twenty thirty days over a twenty year period,
and you literally leave millions of dollars on the table.
And then the third is politics, you know, depending on
who's in the office, and and and again you know
(40:09):
this is not a political you know, common I'm just saying,
people on both sides of the aisle, depending on our biases,
we think if one political party is in power, the
whole world's going to come to an end, and if
I get my guy or my party in office, everything's
going to be great. And this is just a great
reminder that if you look back over history, depending on
(40:30):
which political party is in power, the long term returns
on the stock market are nearly identical. Brian, thanks for listening.
You've been listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth
Financial on fifty five KRC, the talk station.
Speaker 2 (40:46):
I want to know what's happening. I know what's going
on around town, around the country.
Speaker 3 (40:49):
I don't I need to.
Speaker 4 (40:51):
Know the weather, in traffic.
Speaker 2 (40:53):
I want to know what's happening on my local school
boards if I want to know that too.
Speaker 3 (40:57):
If I don't know what's going on, how can I
have a valid opinion.
Speaker 1 (41:00):
Knowing is like massage in your brain, and it's pretty
easy to do, right.
Speaker 2 (41:05):
I do it every day, be in the know. I
listen on the way to work every day, I listen
on the way home. Listen and you'll know plat fifty
five KRC being talkstation.
Speaker 3 (41:16):
Maybe this is
You.
Speaker 2 (00:00):
I got a lot today, do you. I do got
to put up these Halloween decorations?
Speaker 3 (00:04):
Will It's time to do it, dude?
Speaker 2 (00:06):
The rest I do need to know. On fifty five
krs the talk station.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
Tonight, we celebrate an important birthday that has fueled your portfolio.
If you made the choice to participate. You're listening to
Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial on Bob Sponseller
along with Brian James. October is a very special month.
It's the three year birthday or anniversary of the latest
(00:37):
bull market hats and horns and loud noise makers for
all those who decided to stay in the market back
in October of twenty twenty two. Brian, it seems like
yesterday we were having a really rough time of it
in twenty twenty two, and lo and behold, we're up
(00:58):
over sixty six hundred on the s P after falling
to a low of a little over thirty five hundred
in twenty twenty two. Amazing how that works if you
stay invested and play the long game. That's right.
Speaker 4 (01:12):
So this very day, October fourteenth of twenty twenty two,
we were all in the depths of misery because that
was the bottom of that bear market of twenty two,
and so twenty twenty two was one of the five
worst years we've ever had. It doesn't come along with
a crazy story, right. It's up there though, with the
nineteen thirty sevens, nineteen seventy four, two thousand and two,
and two thousand and eight. Twenty twenty two is a
(01:34):
fifth worst year we ever had in the stock market.
It just doesn't have a you know, a great depression
or great recession or any of those kind of crazy headlines.
It was just the unwinding of a lot of stuff
after the post COVID run up. But the SNP hit
a low then of above thirty five eighty three, and now,
as you just said, we're over sixty six hundred on
the SMP. So that's an eighty five percent jump in
this three year span. If you panicked in twenty twenty two,
(01:57):
then figure out how to not do that again. You
ignored it like you should, and you let things come back.
Then you were in good shape. You should be sitting
at a point where you've got more money than you
ever had in your entire life.
Speaker 3 (02:08):
All right, Brian, let's go back to twenty twenty two,
and look at the last three years and that eighty
five percent jump. I mean, obviously twenty twenty two, the
big reason the market went down is that's when the
Federal Reserve raised interest rates seven times in that year,
and it just crushed both the stock and the bond market.
But who would have thought with all the headlines and
(02:29):
noise and political division and turmoil and threats of world
war and all this stuff flying around every day, who
would have ever guessed that over the last three years
the market would be up eighty five percent over that
period of time. And that's really what we're trying to
drive home here is it's all there's never gonna it's
(02:50):
never gonna feel like a good day to put your
money at risk in the stock market. I would have
never have guessed we'd be where we are today. And
I don't know, how were you feeling in twenty twenty two,
And are you surprised at where we are today?
Speaker 4 (03:05):
Same as I felt after two thousand and eight and
after two thousand and two. Right, the pattern doesn't change.
It's time in the market, not timing the market so
you did. The idea is not to try to avoid
these things. Andy Stout Our chief investment officer puts together
information all the time for us to understand market history,
and I think it's an extremely important thing for everybody
to understand, just to see how things actually work.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
So let's go through a little bit of math.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
Had you invested a million bucks in the S and
P five hundred and twenty years ago, that million dollars
would now be worth about seven point one million. And
that's just sitting there and ignoring it. That's not doing
anything cute with it. That's not getting into any of
the latest crazes or the meme stocks or crypto or
anything like that. That's just the five hundred largest American
companies and what they've done for a seven time.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
Increase in your portfolio. There. That's if you left it alone.
Speaker 4 (03:53):
Now, let's say out of those seven six hundred and
fifty days or however many days it was, had you
missed ten of them, then that million dollars would be
worth only about three point three million. I'm literally talking
about ten trading days out of thousands upon thousands of
trading days in that twenty time or in that twenty
year period.
Speaker 3 (04:11):
So you missed, you missed the ten best days, and
you gave up over half of the return over a
twenty year period by missing the ten best that best days.
That's really hard to believe, but those are the facts.
Those are fact the fact that's right now, let's make
it even worse. Had you missed the twenty best days.
When we say missed, what I mean is, whoops. The
market is kind of bumpy right now.
Speaker 4 (04:32):
I'm gonna get out and stay out until until I
feel it's better, which means you've already eaten a little bit.
Nobody's gonna nail the you know, the exit point. The
market's coming down a little bit. You're gonna permanently lock
in that loss, and then you're gonna miss the upswing
because you're never gonna You're not gonna hit the upswing
anymore than than you missed the downswing. So had you
missed the best twenty days, now your million bucks is
(04:52):
only worth about two that's doubling over twenty years, which
is a really really sad return. If you miss the
best thirty days now at this point, you're basically not
making any money. You've made one point of your million
would now be worth one point three. So one month
out of the last twenty years worth of trading days.
That's where all the return has come from. Don't get cute,
don't try to time the market. You don't know better
(05:12):
than anybody else.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
Well in that in that thirty days, thirty days over
twenty years, missing it that million bucks, like you just said,
it's worth one point three million dollars, Brian, that's only
a one point three percent annualized game. That doesn't even
keep pace with inflation, to say nothing of taxes.
Speaker 4 (05:31):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
And unfortunately people have this kind of experience because they're
in and out, in and out, they cave into fear.
And you know, at that point, if you're gonna miss
those best thirty days over twenty years, you might as
well just put it in cash, put it in a CD.
These numbers are powerful and it and it lends, you know,
to the real point that we're trying to make. Patience
(05:53):
is the key here, walk us through some more numbers. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (05:58):
So most of the time, if you think about it,
this is what we're saying is most of the time,
the market does a bunch of nothing. All we did
was pull thirty days out of twenty years, and we
basically made the market do nothing over the past twenty years,
even though we started with an example of a seven
time return over that timeframe. So the majority of trading days, Bob,
they don't end with huge gains and losses.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
They kind of go up a little bit and go
down a little bit.
Speaker 4 (06:20):
Over those So let's unpack that a little bit over
the last Over the past three years, just since twenty
twenty two, again ending literally today October fourteenth, of twenty
twenty five, we've had seven hundred and fifty trading days.
Of those, four hundred and fifteen have had an average
daily gain of point seven percent, the other three hundred
and thirty five and average loss of point six percent, So
that almost cancels out, except that there are more updates
(06:43):
than down days. So if you compound that tiny point
zero three percent edge over seven hundred fifty days all
of a sudden, instead of just adding up to twenty
two and a half percent, it's snowballs. Every day's gain
builds on the last. That's compounding, and it happens in
the background, but it can't if you kick the legs
of the stool out from under by trying to time.
Speaker 3 (07:02):
Yeah, the point is that your portfolio growth takes time
in most days it's gonna feel like it's doing nothing,
and you do have to sit through some volatility, like
what's gone on, let's say over the last few days,
up down, up down. That's all part of the game,
the game, and you've got to remain patient and discipline
(07:22):
and not worried about or focus on what's happening every
single day, because most days not much is happening at all. Now, Brian,
this doesn't mean that we've never had some extended bear markets.
You know, since nineteen forty nine, we've had twelve bull
markets and twelve bear markets. Again, since nineteen forty nine,
(07:47):
the same number of bull and bear markets.
Speaker 4 (07:50):
Well, Bob, if we've had just as many bulls as bears,
then how can we possibly have made any money.
Speaker 3 (07:55):
That doesn't make any sense. Well, here's the key, and
this is really important. The average length of those bull
markets has been five years and five months, with an
average total return of two hundred and seventy percent over
that time. For each of the bear markets, the average
length of each bear market has just been one year
(08:16):
and one month, with an average total loss of only
thirty two percent over every bear market. So you don't
have to be a genius or a math wizard to
know that even though the number of bearing, the gains
that you get in bull markets far outweighs any pullbacks
that we have in bear markets. And that's why long
(08:38):
term investors always win.
Speaker 4 (08:41):
Yeah, And so the idea is to stay invested in
and ride it out because the bull markets are longer
and go higher than the bear markets last and that
the bear markets go down. So volatility is to be expected, right,
We're always going to have the ups and downs. US
stocks have experienced corrections, averaging fourteen percent down since nineteen eighty,
(09:02):
so that's pretty average. We had one to ten percent
earlier earlier this year in April that was no fund.
Speaker 3 (09:07):
It was more than it was more than ten. I mean,
it was getting close to, if not over, that fourteen percent.
And let's face it, everyone was freaking out because we'd
never seen the reason why before. We had never seen,
you know, a president of the United States hold up
a chart saying we're going to tear if the entire world,
you know, simultaneously back in eight oh nine, we'd never
(09:31):
seen a housing crisis like what we saw then. You know,
the reasons for these bear markets are always new. You know,
think of COVID. No one had ever seen anything like
COVID during their lifetime, so we we have a tendency
to think that, well, this time it's different. You know,
this time, the market's never going to return just because
it goes downcent But expect in terms of a market
(09:56):
plock market, that's normal, and that's what we kind of
call the price of admission, the price of being involved. Yeah,
and then there's always an upswing that follows it.
Speaker 4 (10:04):
So take this, for example, from nineteen forty nine to
twenty twenty four, if we see a twenty percent pullback,
Historically speaking, these are not estimates, these are real numbers.
Whenever the market pulls back twenty percent from those set
seventy five year period going back to right after World
War Two, a twenty percent drop has rebounded with a
forty six percent return over the next three years and
(10:24):
seventy three percent over the next five years.
Speaker 3 (10:26):
So don't screw with the long term investments.
Speaker 4 (10:28):
Remember, there are people sitting at the top of all
of our publicly traded companies and they are navigating, they
are making decisions, They are pulling levers and pushing buttons
to try to make those companies profitable again. When the
market pulls back, it's simply saying I don't see how
you're going to be profitable here in the short run,
and changes are made, layoffs happen, new products are discovered,
new markets are discovered, and we move on. The United
(10:50):
States a profit margin has always been that way, and
that's why we always have that recovery. The stock market is.
It's not detached from anything else for the purpose of
measuring opinions on how profitable companies will be. And as
long as there is human greed out there, someone is
going to push the ball forward because it is by
far the best way to create a bigger pile of money.
Speaker 3 (11:13):
Here's the all Worth advice. The most accomplished investors will
they exhibit unwavering discipline regardless of current market conditions. This
bull market may have some folks thinking they've quote unquote
made it financially. Coming up next, why that sense of
success might actually be the biggest risk to your long
(11:34):
term wealth. You're listening to Simply Money, presented by all
Worth Financial on fifty five KRC the talk station in
the Middle East.
Speaker 2 (11:41):
We have all to work together to make sure that
it happens.
Speaker 3 (11:44):
In the day's news for bariently toward one of the
longest shutdowns in American history.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
More Off the Government is off China US trade war
affecting the market fifty five KRC the talk station.
Speaker 5 (11:55):
All Worth Financial a registered investment advisory firm. Any idea
is presented during this program are not intended to provide
specific financial advice. You should consult your own financial advisor,
tax consultant, or a state planning attorney to conduct your
own due diligence.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
You're listening to Simply Money is thated by all Worth
Financial and Bob spond Seller along with Brian James. If
you can't listen to Simply Money live every night, subscribe
and get our daily podcast. And if you think your
friends or family or both could use some financial advice,
tell them about us as well. Just search Simply Money
on the iHeart app or wherever you find your podcast.
(12:36):
Straight Ahead at six forty three. We are digging into
some of your most pressing financial questions, like when to
move money out of CDs that are paying five percent,
what to do when you're sitting on big games in
your brokerage account, and more. Well, there's this natural tendency
to believe that once you've built a big you know,
(12:57):
net worth or big pile of wealth, it just runs
on autopilot. It's self sustaining. You don't have to worry
about it anymore. You don't have to optimize anything. The
market's been doing great, like we've just illustrated, so we'll
just ride it out and watch. Well, the more money
you have, the more exposed you might be. Bigger balances
(13:19):
mean bigger tax bills, more estate planning complications, and more
risks in terms of dollar amounts and volatility if you
allow your asset allocation to drift off target. Brian, let's
walk through some of these moves that a lot of
wealthier investors just you know, kind of don't pay attention to.
(13:41):
They can really make a huge difference if they do
a little proactive planning and get strategic about their money. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (13:48):
So one of the areas where complacency can be a problem,
where if I start ignoring things, well, things get a
little bit out of whack, Bob. So maybe I was
in a sixty to forty nine balanced conservative portfolio when
I set my plan, but if I haven't touched it
in these past three years of this really strong bull market.
But I might be sitting on a portfolio that's no
longer sixty percent stocks, it's eighty percent stocks.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
That's a good thing.
Speaker 4 (14:08):
We want growth, but that's the whole point of needing
to rebalance an asset allocation and diversification. You're not going
to know that until a correction hits, and it hits
a little harder than you thought it would. You thought
it would, well, that means you were probably out of
whack to begin with. So so you had a little
too much exposure in the more volatile thing. Another element, Bob,
is tax loss harvest thing. You look like I want
(14:28):
to say something, Bob, So I'm gonna give you. Well,
I'll give you a second there now, Well good, I
want to go back to that first point. I mean,
because I see this happen once in a while. You allow,
you know, people allow their portfolio.
Speaker 3 (14:38):
To get like you said, move from that initial sixty
percent stock up to eighty eighty five percent you know stocks,
and then we get that you know, annual fourteen percent decline,
and then the phone rings and say should we get out? Well,
what you should have done is trim some of the game.
The market was up and you and I have been
(14:59):
talking about of that. It seems like for the last
two or three weeks now, keeping your allocation in balance
where it needs to be according to your risk tolerance,
so you don't freak out when we get a little volatility,
you know, I just bring that up because that happens
from time to time. Yeah, that's what some of my
phone calls are about. I don't know. Do you go
(15:20):
through anything similar with your clients.
Speaker 4 (15:22):
Absolutely, and we always go over you know, here, let's
talk about what's working in the portfolio and what's not
working as well, right, because an asset allocated portfolio diversification
by definition means you're gonna have something that's leading the
pack doing great, and you're gonna have something that's bringing
up the rear end. But those things are never going
to stay the same. For years, it's been the international
and emerging market stocks that have kind of lagged the
rest of the pack. But that is not the case
(15:43):
this year. You're up, you know, twenty five thirty percent
in your international position, assuming you kept it in place.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
A lot of people walked away.
Speaker 4 (15:50):
From it over the last decade when when those positions
were simply not performing as well, as the US based stocks,
so make sure you've got a good allocation there. The
United States is changing how it's perceived by the rest
of the world. For you know, good batter and different.
That's what's happening, and the world is changing its perception.
Therefore opportunities are being found elsewhere.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
All right, I interrupted you before, Brian, you wanted to
talk about I think tax loss harvesting and dovetailing that
with concentrated stock positions.
Speaker 4 (16:18):
I have here stuff to share, time, time to start
thinking about this stuff. We're getting close to you close
to go time here in Q four. So that means
hopefully your advisor or you are looking for proactively looking
for losses to harvest, or maybe if you've got something
that's sitting at a significant gain, sell that too to
to to realize that.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
Gain and not lose the dollars.
Speaker 4 (16:39):
But I'll offset it with some kind of if there's
a loss in a position at a loss position, then
go ahead and offset the game with that. Otherwise just
leaving money on the table. Either are puzzle pieces in
front of you that fit directly together, so do that.
If you have a good nest egg. We're not talking
small dollars. Here, good tax planning can easily be a
pretty significant six figure swing over a few years by
(17:01):
taking these taking these steps. Now, this also comes up
with concentrated stocks. People do let their gains run, don't
want to pay the tax, and hey, it ain't broke,
I'm not going to fix it. That doctor just keeps
running and running. Now, all of a sudden, we got
a single position that's maybe thirty or forty percent of
their portfolio, or sometimes this is an employer stock grants
and options, those kinds of things. You have a lot
exposed and not sleeping very well at night. So I
(17:22):
think you got an example for us.
Speaker 3 (17:24):
Yeah, let's take an example. You know, hypothetical couple named
Dan and Lisa. They're in their early sixties. They recently
sold a business. They've got about six million dollars now,
obviously more than enough to feel financially independent. They're smart,
they've worked, they've worked hard, and now they feel like
they've made it and they're coasting. They haven't rebalanced their
(17:45):
portfolio in years, they haven't updated their estate plan since
their kids were in college, and they've made almost no
tax planning moves at all. And Brian this is an
example of what you just talked about. They just let
their portfolio coast up to eighty five percent in stocks,
heavily concentrated in tech stocks. So they've got big embedded
(18:05):
gains in several positions, and now they don't want to
talk about it because they know that taxman is looming
in any moves that they make. They're worried about a
big tax bill. Here's the risk. They're just one correction
away from losing hundreds of thousands of dollars in value,
and they have no guardrails in place, no structured withdrawal plan,
(18:29):
no strategy for wrath conversions, and no estate transition plan.
So everything they've built is exposed. Not because they're reckless,
but because they've just grown comfortable and they just they
just assume that that six million dollar number will manage itself.
And those are the kind of people that will benefit
(18:50):
from working with a good fiduciary advisor to help them
be a good steward of that six million dollars and
make it work even harder for them.
Speaker 4 (18:59):
Yeah, high performer, you've got there for a reason, but
most likely there was somebody pushing you along the way.
So even high performers need accountability, and the irony of
that is, you know, the more money you have, the
more you need somebody asking tough questions to make sure
we're looking under every stone for things that can go
wrong and possibly for missed opportunities. But very often sometimes
high net worth investors stop listening to that. We hit
(19:21):
a point where we checked the box. I've made it.
I've made my fortune. You know, I must be doing
something right. Therefore nothing needs to change. But as we
just talked about with the example of the international stock positions,
markets do change. There's also tax laws that change your goals,
your own personal situation may change. So it's an ongoing
conversation really that never stops. Even Tiger Woods has a
(19:41):
swing coach at the top of his game, he still
had people in his ear telling him what was going
well and what wasn't. So he could have somebody in
arms length away who would see things that he wouldn't.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
That's what a financial advisor does. Yeah, the people who
stay sharp, the ones who preserve their wealth and even
continue to grow it. They treat financial planning like a
skill to maintain, not just a box they checked one time.
Here's the all worth advice. The moment you feel like
you've quote unquote made it is exactly when you need
(20:11):
to stay engaged because success can't protect you from complacency.
Here's a question you may have asked yourself, should I
invest in real estate? We're gonna look at the pros
and cons coming up next. You're listening to Simply Money
presented by all Worth Financial on fifty five KRC, the
talk station Allot the Straight Jacket.
Speaker 5 (20:32):
This is fifty five KARC and iHeartRadio station.
Speaker 3 (20:40):
You're listening to Simply Money presented by Allworth Financial on
Bob Sponseller along with Brian James, joined tonight by our
real estate expert, Michelle Sloan, owner of Remax Time and Michelle.
This is a topic that Brian and I are excited
to get into because it comes up all the time
with our clients. Is real estate a good investment, especially
(21:01):
now considering prices are higher than ever? You know, talk
about pros and cons of real estate as an investment, Well, it.
Speaker 6 (21:10):
Is no matter what whether you're buying a home that
is for your personal use, or buying a home that
you're going to use as a rental or a vacation home,
or an airbnb. It is an investment one way or another.
It's the biggest investment that you're ever going to make.
So the question is do you try to jump into
the market right now when we have talked about the
(21:32):
home sales year over year are up seven percent, So yes,
the prices of homes are up. They are higher than
they were, but we don't anticipate them to be lower
anytime soon. So you get in today, it's going to
be a better price most likely than it will be
(21:53):
a year from now. And you have to you have
to do your own financial planning, and you have to
talk to peopeople that know your situation, because every situation
is different. Are you going to need a mortgage, Well,
you're gonna have to bake in that interest rate, in
those closing costs, and maybe you have to do some
repairs depending on what you're looking for. You want to
(22:16):
you want to look at the big picture. If you're
gonna pay cash, the different story you may not have
as much to you. You're not gonna have that overhead
of a mortgage payment and the interest rate and all
of that stuff. So there seems to be an awful
lot of buyers today that.
Speaker 4 (22:38):
On the topic of the mortgage there except for those
people looking maybe for a second home. These are people
who tend to be, of course, you know, maybe retired
or maybe you're about to retire. Is can you talk
a little bit about the challenge of getting a mortgage
if you're you may have plenty of assets but no income.
Some banks are cool with that, some banks aren't, even
though you've got a lot of money in the bank.
Speaker 3 (22:55):
And what kind of situations have you seen like.
Speaker 6 (22:57):
That, Yeah, you have to shop around. I am fine
that A lot of buyers in that situation who maybe
are in their seventies and they're retired, they still have
some income, it may not be as much as if
they were working full time, and more often than not,
they're going to put maybe seventy or eighty percent down
(23:17):
in cash and then only get a small mortgage. And
that's really the way to go if you have the
means to do that. That way, you know you're not
using all of your cash, uh, and you have leaving
some of that available and then you're only taking out
a small mortgage. You might have to do just a
little bit of shopping, but there are definitely lenders out
there who can help you all.
Speaker 3 (23:39):
Right, Michelle, I'm curious because I think we have to
distinguish between you know, when we buy a home, are
we buying it to live in it or you know,
a second home you know vacation destination to live in it,
or are we buying it as a rental income source,
you know, a true one hundred percent investment property. Talk
about the whole property for rental income market right now.
(24:04):
How are average rents trending? Are you seeing people successfully
handle rental property right now when you factor in all
the tax benefits of the depreciation You've already talked about
potential appreciation of the home price to say nothing in
the rental income. Is that still working right now as
a good cash flow investment strategy.
Speaker 6 (24:25):
Absolutely, there is always opportunities in the real estate industry.
I think that you have to decide if you're buying
a home as rental income. A lot of the HLAs
have tightened down. And this is the one thing that
I get questioned, awful an awful lot. I have three
hundred thousand dollars to spend. I want to buy a
(24:48):
rental property. I'd like to be maybe get a condo
or something like that. So I don't have to do
all of the maintenance. What can you find for me? Well,
that's to be more of a challenge because if you
are buying a condo for rental purposes, oftentimes the HOA
(25:08):
has clamped down and not allowing rentals in a lot
of communities. So again it's a lot of research, but
there are opportunities. And then if you have to think
about if you're buying a rental single family home, you're
going to have maintenance. Who's going to take care of
the yard, the lawn, the exterior, that kind of thing.
(25:32):
The average rent right now in Cincinnati is about fourteen
hundred dollars a month. Uh, that sounds so high, but
and it is, but and it has the rent has
rows seven point four percent, So you want to do
some calculations, you know.
Speaker 4 (25:52):
So is it even possible because I'll have people throw
this out every now and then they inherit money, they
retire and so forth, is it really even possible? Because
we get this idea that hey, I'll just buy a
property and I'm gonna airb and be it. That was
cool maybe fifteen years ago you could actually you know,
make a little cash flow it.
Speaker 3 (26:08):
Yeah, you could totally make it pay for itself.
Speaker 4 (26:10):
But now I'm feeling like it maybe may know, it
may get you just under a break even, but you're
gonna lose money.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
Am I wrong?
Speaker 6 (26:15):
There just seems like every situation I look at it,
there's a lot of work involved and people don't see that.
You know, you every time somebody's in and out, you
have to clean. And then if they bust things up,
you know you're gonna have to fix things. And then
you read it like a rental for a reason. Yeah, yeah,
you know, an airbnb. I think again, it sounds great,
(26:37):
but I would do I would do. Buyer beware if
you're planning to do something like that, because there are
a lot of hitting costs that you may not consider. Yeah,
it sounds perfect, you know, buy let's buy a cool
place in downtown Cincinnati overlooking the river, and you know
we'll airbnb it and we'll get one thousand dollars a night. Well, well,
(27:00):
you're not always going to be rented. It's it's gonna
cost you money. You're going to have to hire somebody
unless you're going to do the work, unless you're going
to clean after every person, and.
Speaker 4 (27:11):
You're going to be in this thing. Yeah, you're gonna
be in it more than you ever intended to.
Speaker 3 (27:15):
Absolutely, Well, it's a lot of work, Michelle. You know
something that that I've become aware of here in recent months,
you know, is you brought up the hoa's. I think
you got to do your due diligence on the financial
condition of that hoas because insurance rates are climbing, So
these condo buildings are in need of repairs, which means
assessments and depending on the location, you know, big time assessments.
(27:41):
You know, think about areas in Florida where these these
condos that are forty fifty years old are not hurricane proof.
You know, you got to look beyond just the price
of the place and what you think you can rent
it for, right And so are there particular locations you're
seeing that are very attractive versus you know, big watch
out signs, you know that.
Speaker 6 (28:03):
And that's a really good question, and it really is
going to it's going to be very personal. So if
the rentals that Scott and my own, they're all local,
so if we need to get to them quickly, we can.
But thinking of I would never buy personally a rental
in Florida because I can't keep my eyes on it.
Speaker 3 (28:25):
It's kind of like owning a bar.
Speaker 6 (28:28):
If you're not in that bar all the time, people
are going to be drinking your alcohol and they're going
to be stealing from the till unless you're there and
monitoring the situation, or maybe hiring somebody that you know
and trust. So as far as a location, it really
really depends on what type of property you're looking for.
(28:49):
If you're looking for a little higher end property, if
you're looking for something that's, you know, a fixer upper.
There's there's so many options, but the biggest thing that
I can say is planning is key. Connect with a
smart financial planner I think we know some, and a
really smart realtor.
Speaker 3 (29:08):
I think we know one of those too. It sounds great. Hey, Thanks,
thanks as always for all your help. Michelle. You're listening
to Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial on fifty
five KRC the talk station. The Shumer shutdown, Trump shutdown.
Speaker 2 (29:23):
The Democrats will own it.
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Portland is on fire, the Ice facility has been under siege.
Speaker 3 (29:29):
President's declared war on Chicago is a disaster.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
We deserve to be safe in our communities. Again, Thank America.
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Trump again, Israel and hamas a piece. Deal is closer
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Kissing about every nation working on this deal.
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The events of the day, clear transparent information are heard
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In real time.
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You're Maddy available everywhere with the iHeartRadio app now number
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Fifty five KRC and iHeartRadio Station.
Speaker 3 (30:06):
You're listening to Simply Money sent up by all Worth
Financial on Bob Sponseller along with Brian James. Do you
have a financial question you'd like for us to answer.
There's a red button you can click while you're listening
to the show right in the iHeart app. Simply record
your question and it will come straight to us. All right.
Brian Martin and Lovelin has one for you. He says,
(30:27):
we're retired and we're drawing from our portfolio. How do
we decide which accounts to tap first? Taxable accounts? Iras
roth irays, how do we decide to make that money
last longer?
Speaker 4 (30:40):
Yeah, this is a great question and it's a good
thing to tackle early on to understand the differences between
all these accounts. So so really, with the you might
have a lot of different accounts. There could be fifteen
accounts in one household, but there's really only a handful
of tax treatments.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
So some things are tax deferred.
Speaker 4 (30:56):
That's oftentimes you're iras, and four in case you've never
paid tax or those things can also be roth, meaning
you paid you didn't get a deduction up front, so
you technically pay taxes on the front end but no
taxes on the back. Or you can have you might
have a taxable account, this is something that spits out
of ten ninety nine every year on the dividends, and
maybe they are capital gains and those kinds of things.
So those are the three basic tax treatments. So here's
(31:18):
some ways to think about it. A good rule of
thumb is to spend those taxable accounts first, then your
tax deferred ones, and save those wroth iras for a last.
Speaker 3 (31:28):
That's now let's get more specific.
Speaker 4 (31:30):
There are exceptions to this, but that's that's kind of
a good way to just start thinking about it. Since
the WROTH money is tax free and there's no require
minimum distributions, we're not trying to avoid those at age
seventy five or seventy three, so let the ross run
put them on the back end, and your kids are
also going to inherit them a little more efficiently.
Speaker 3 (31:46):
So, but let's talk about more specific situations.
Speaker 4 (31:48):
If you're at a low tax bracket early in retirement,
you might fill up those brackets by going ahead and
taking proactively strategic IRA withdrawals and paying taxes a little
earlier than you have to, but otherwise doing it at
a lower bracket because you have less income.
Speaker 3 (32:02):
You also might do partial Roth conversions at this time.
Speaker 4 (32:05):
Not only is that going to turn it into tax
free income from here on out, it's also going to
reduce future require minimum distributions and you're going to control
your taxes later when Social Security and Medicare kicks in.
So hopefully that helps. That helps answer that question a
little bit. Let's move on to Jerry and Westchester, and
Jerry says, if Roth accounts are so tax efficient, why
wouldn't we just stick all of our dollars into that
instead of traditional iras and four O one k's what
(32:27):
do you think of that?
Speaker 3 (32:27):
Bob Well, I say to Jerry that that might be
exactly what you want to do, I mean, depending on
your situation. So kudos to you for thinking about this stuff.
You know up front, so here, but here's how I'd
answer the question. Anytime we get into a discussion or
you have to do the analysis on this WROTH versus
regular iran four oh one K you got you gotta
(32:49):
build some assumptions into your long term financial plan, things
like what are tax rates now based on your current income,
What do you think tax rates are going to be
down the road, what are your income needs gonna be.
So there's some there's some work that goes into this
to come up with a plan to determine whether it
does make sense to defer taxes now. Most of the time,
(33:14):
you know, the traditional iras in four oh one k's
make the most sense for people that are in a
high income tax bracket now and think they're going to
be in a lower tax bracket you know, when they retire.
So you got to run the numbers. But look, there's
nothing wrong with the WROTH iren in case, there's a
lot right with the WROTH accounts, there's nothing wrong with it.
(33:36):
The key here is to match the strategy with your
individualized financial plan to determine which mix of WROTH versus
regular accounts make the most sense for you. And again
it has to do with a lot to do with
your current income now, the tax bracket you're in now
versus where you think you're going to be down the road.
(33:57):
And then everybody has an opinion on where tax rates
are headed. We'll leave that for another day, but hope
that helps Jerry. All right, Rachel and fort Mitchell. You know,
says Brian. We've got cash and CDs earning over five percent,
but rates won't stay that high forever. How do we
transition back into longer term investments when the time comes?
Speaker 4 (34:18):
All right, Rachel, This is a very common question now
because when interest rates finally got off the mat a
few years ago and we all slowly began to remember
that we're allowed to get paid on our deposits, a
lot of people put money into in the CDs and
kind of lock some of these rates in. Well, those
are starting to come due now and we've got decisions
to make. Yields are coming down. The Federal Reserve has
cut rates, has cut interest rates a little bit and
as problem and is expected to have a few more
(34:40):
of those too, which is going to be good for
your stock market portfolio, but not great for where you're
trying to lock in those yields.
Speaker 3 (34:45):
So really the think of it like this. Think of
it this way. We're kind of turning down a dimmer switch.
You're not flipping light switch.
Speaker 4 (34:52):
Instead of moving everything at once, reinvestings gradually maybe every
quarter or as those CDs mature. That's a way to
kind of force yourself to dollar cost aver. You're not
throwing everything into your stock and bond portfolio at the
worst possible time, because you're gonna spread it out over time.
You also could look at what something called a bond ladder,
which basically means let's say you buy you know, I'll
make up an example.
Speaker 3 (35:11):
You've got fifty thousand dollars.
Speaker 4 (35:12):
You put ten thousand dollars into five different bonds coming
due each year over the next five years. That's going
to lock in the yields where they currently are, but
also create liquidity on an annual basis.
Speaker 3 (35:24):
That's the basic function of a bond ladder.
Speaker 4 (35:26):
So you know, it's just think of it as a
as a as a process, not a Okay, I'm done
with CDs today and now I'm all in the stock market,
so just be don't don't make it more complicated than
it has to be to get back in. So we're
gonna move on to John and Anderson. John's had an
advisor for a long time, and he says they're starting
to wonder about how to evaluate performance beyond just the returns.
(35:46):
What should they really be measuring in determining whether this
advisor's providing value for them, Bob.
Speaker 3 (35:52):
Well. John also said, you know, they've been working with
the same advisor for years, and he's just starting to
wonder how to evaluate the performance not just of market returns,
but advisors. And here's my answer. And and this this
is somewhat I guess might be controversial to some. I
think most people in our business, Brian, feel free to disagree.
(36:12):
Whether it's fiduciary advisors, commission based brokers, people holding them
south themselves out as investment advisors. You know, let's face it,
eighty over almost eighty percent of all actively managed you know,
accounts net of fees underperform their peer group index again
(36:33):
over two thirds, close to eighty percent. So you gotta,
you gotta, you got to conclude that the value added
here in any financial advisor relationship is not in that
advisor saying I'm gonna beat the market every year. It's
all the other stuff they do for you, the tax efficiency,
the estate planning, the truly comprehensive financial plan, putting behavioral
(36:57):
guardrails around some of the decisions that people may keeping
them from making decisions from what they might not be
able to recover from. That's where the value is added.
And if your advisor is not current advisor is not
adding that kind of value, you might want to get
a second opinion from a good fiduciary advisor. Coming up next,
(37:17):
I've got my two cents on why people don't stay
more disciplined from a long term standpoint in the stock market.
You're listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial
on fifty five KRC the talk station Mark Levin.
Speaker 1 (37:33):
Let me tell you, so, the Internet is breeding evil,
breeding evil.
Speaker 2 (37:37):
And TikTok is the main culprit.
Speaker 1 (37:39):
And I don't know what's happening with TikTok, but that
damn thing needs to be sold now and it needs
to be cleaned up. And I don't want to hear
about free speech and everything else. It's a private company.
The company needs to clean it up because this is
crazy between the communist Chinese and all the crap that
people put.
Speaker 2 (37:55):
On this stuff. Mark Levin tonight at ten oh six
on fifty five KRC, the talk station at the Thompson
House flows.
Speaker 4 (38:02):
I am so worried that next month I have to
choose between groceries for my kids or gas for my car.
Speaker 2 (38:07):
Talk about it here fifty five KRC, the talk station.
Speaker 3 (38:15):
You're listening to. Simply Money said I by all Worth
Financial and Bob Sponsller along with Brian James. All Right, Brian,
I'm gonna throw my behavioral finance cap on here tonight
and talk a little bit about why some investors don't
stay more disciplined, you know, and treat the stock market
like the wonderful long term investment opportunity that it is.
(38:39):
And you know, we threw out a slew of data
earlier in the show today making the case, and it's facts.
There's no opinion there, it's just facts on the benefits
of having a lot of your money in the stock
market long term. I want to talk about why people
don't do it, and I've come up with three most
common reasons. And look, I've been guilty of all three
(39:01):
of these, you know, at some point in time over
the course of my career. I would say one is
control when the market does nothing, and we're used to
running a business and we want to make things happen.
We want we we think we're smart and we think
we can outsmart the market. We think we can pick
stocks and pick you know, time the market in and out.
(39:22):
We just think we're smarter than everyone else, and we
want to control the outcome ourselves. Number two, and this
is a big one, is just the media. Let's face it,
over a ninety percent of the stories we hear all day,
every day in the media are negative. That's what sells
negative headlines, and people just get scared and they say, gosh,
(39:46):
what else could happen bad? I'm going to park my
money on the sidelines and wait for the market to
get better. And as we've already illustrated, you miss the
best ten twenty thirty days over a twenty year period,
and you literally leave millions of dollars on the table.
And then the third is politics, you know, depending on
who's in the office, and and and again you know
(40:09):
this is not a political you know, common I'm just saying,
people on both sides of the aisle, depending on our biases,
we think if one political party is in power, the
whole world's going to come to an end, and if
I get my guy or my party in office, everything's
going to be great. And this is just a great
reminder that if you look back over history, depending on
(40:30):
which political party is in power, the long term returns
on the stock market are nearly identical. Brian, thanks for listening.
You've been listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth
Financial on fifty five KRC, the talk station.
Speaker 2 (40:46):
I want to know what's happening. I know what's going
on around town, around the country.
Speaker 3 (40:49):
I don't I need to.
Speaker 4 (40:51):
Know the weather, in traffic.
Speaker 2 (40:53):
I want to know what's happening on my local school
boards if I want to know that too.
Speaker 3 (40:57):
If I don't know what's going on, how can I
have a valid opinion.
Speaker 1 (41:00):
Knowing is like massage in your brain, and it's pretty
easy to do, right.
Speaker 2 (41:05):
I do it every day, be in the know. I
listen on the way to work every day, I listen
on the way home. Listen and you'll know plat fifty
five KRC being talkstation.
Speaker 3 (41:16):
Maybe this is
Simply Money News
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