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December 9, 2025 38 mins

On this episode of Simply Money presented by Allworth Financial, Bob and Brian are joined by Allworth CIO Andy Stout to preview the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year. With a rate cut all but guaranteed, what really matters is how Jerome Powell sets expectations for early 2026—and how a divided Fed committee might shape the path ahead. Andy unpacks what high-net-worth investors need to watch in the upcoming dot plot and why rebalancing your portfolio now could be crucial. Then, Bob and Brian dig into why more than 70% of millionaires don’t feel wealthy—and how to shift your mindset (and your plan) to regain confidence. They also reveal the three costly financial gaps that can hit if you retire before 65. And in the listener mailbag: mutual funds vs. ETFs in retirement accounts, understanding real bond yields, and how to handle today’s top-heavy S&P 500.

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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Tonight despite flying blind for a little while when government
economic data was not available to them. The Federal Reserve
is meeting this week and is going to make a
decision on interest rates, and that decision could impact all
of us. You're listening to Simply Money, presented by Allworth Financial.
I'm Bob Sponseller along with Brian James. We're joined tonight

(00:27):
by all Worths Chief Investment Officer Andy Stout. Andy's always
a fabulous resource to try to make sense of all
of this complex economic stuff. And by the way, he
and his team also managed a little over thirty five
billion dollars for our clients here at Allworth. Andy, thanks
for joining us. And let's get right to it. What's
the Fed going to do this Wednesday? And you know,

(00:49):
we see that we've already I guess we've already priced
in a quarter point rate cut, and so I'll say,
what's going to happen this Wednesday? And I guess, more importantly,
what's going to happen likely in Anuary relative to interest rates?

Speaker 2 (01:03):
Well, the Fed will most likely cut rates here when
they meet on Wednesday. There's about a ninety five percent chance,
So I mean it's pretty much a lock at this point.
I mean, obviously anything can happen, but it seems like
it's pretty much dialed in that the FED will cut rates.
So that's not that's not unexpected. You know, what's going
to be more interesting is how Chair Pale essentially navigates

(01:26):
the economic divide between the different committee members over there,
because over the past few weeks we've seen some members
Fed governors talking about, you know, I'm really worried about inflation.
We got to maybe be a little bit slower on that.
If we have some other FED members saying, you know,
we got to be a little bit more about the
labor market, so we should be cutting rates. And there's

(01:48):
been a really big divide, and then when we put
it all together, Share Pale probably will be able to
get enough people wrangle the herd of cats, if you
will onto onto his side, that we get a rate cut.
The bigger question, though, is how he sets up January.

Speaker 3 (02:07):
To your point, well, can we talk about January then?
To you, what do you feel right now? Granted a
lot can happen between now and then, but are we
on do you think we're going to be staying on
this declining rate path?

Speaker 4 (02:18):
How quick will they be to pivot given the rhetoric.

Speaker 3 (02:21):
That has come out of this administration that we wanted
rates cut since before it made any sense to cut
rates because that was a campaign promise. So are is
there any chance we waiver off of that?

Speaker 4 (02:30):
Anyway?

Speaker 2 (02:31):
When you look at what's going to happen in January,
we'll get a very big clue when the Fed meets
this week because they're going to release their quarterly Summary
of Economic Projections, which includes their DOP plot. The top
plot is. Besides this sounding really you know, fancy and
rhyming and all that good stuff, it's really actually interesting
because what it shows it shows where each Fed member

(02:52):
thinks rates should be at the end of upcoming calendar years.
When we look back at the one that the last
one that came out in September, it shows that there
would probably just be one rate cut in twenty twenty six,
and that's likely to be at least That's what most
economists think, is that you could see just one more
cut pricing on the dot blot. I'm want to be
too shocked if we see two cuts priced in for
twenty twenty six at least shown to be the median dot.

(03:14):
But it's going to be a close call. Now in
terms of what might actually happen in January, I think
they're probably going to wait, but you will have to
see when the FED meat meets next on it. It's
going to be January twenty eighth. See what the data
looks like because we haven't had data. I mean, we've
been in the data blackout, and once we start to
get this data, we'll be able to see what does

(03:35):
the job market look like? You know, what does inflation
look like? And right now we just don't know. So
until we have that, I think it's most likely that
the FED uh stands still.

Speaker 1 (03:46):
Well, hey, not to belabor this point, but what you know,
the FED talks all the time about being data dependent
and appropriately, so what data are is the FED going
to get, you know, government and otherwise data in other words,
back to normal data generation. What data are they going
to have between now and the January meeting.

Speaker 2 (04:04):
Well, they will actually start to get that data. So
just to kind of poke a little bit of fun
at the FED, because who doesn't like to do that?

Speaker 4 (04:12):
Right?

Speaker 2 (04:12):
If they're data dependent? I mean, why are they cutting
rates when they haven't had any data?

Speaker 1 (04:16):
Right?

Speaker 2 (04:16):
Or I mean it doesn't make any sense. So what
the FED is really more data dependent on is probably
like the stock market reaction, it's going to be what
the bond market things. That we have gotten some data,
but it's been mostly private market data. We're not going
to get that official data up until really next week.
December sixteenth is when the labor market data comes out,
and that'll be for the month of November. It should

(04:38):
have been last week, but because of the shutdown, it
was delayed. We'll get the inflation data for November on
December eighteenth, so we'll have that, and then we'll also
get the December data before the next meeting, so the
FED will have two months of new fresh data for
both the labor market and inflation. And oh, by the way,
on December twenty third, I guess, Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah

(05:03):
for those of you celebrating. That's when we'll get the
GDP report for Q three.

Speaker 4 (05:08):
So then, are we feeling that.

Speaker 3 (05:12):
Do you feel there's a pivot point coming up where
we might need to be making some changes to capital assumptions,
those kinds of things where we kind of status quo
at the moment.

Speaker 2 (05:20):
Well, in terms of how we think about you know
where the markets might head. It's really important to look
at what's expected from an economic standpoint, because when you
see these big pullbacks in the market, brind it typically
occur around recessions, because when you have a slower economic
growth rate, that pulls down earnings growth rate and earnings
are really what drives the value of the stock market.

(05:43):
And when you look at valuations in general, I mean,
the market's near the upper end of valuations, there's no
question about that. What has supported things, though, is that
the earnings growth rate has continued. So until we get
a real shock to that earnings growth rate, we'll probably
still see I mean least for the longer term investors.
Obviously the lucky and have in the short term, but

(06:03):
we don't really expect any sort of shock to those
capital market assumptions.

Speaker 1 (06:09):
Andy, Let's let's talk about just good old asset allocation
and rebalancing here. Heading into the end of the year,
obviously the S and P five hundreds up about eighteen percent,
but Brian and I talk about this all the time
on this show, So much of that return is concentrated
in just a few tech names. This year From an
overall financial planning standpoint and just responsible, you know, rebalancing

(06:32):
an asset allocation. What are you and your team looking
at and maybe what are some of the moves that
you think we should be considering here heading into the
end of the year.

Speaker 2 (06:43):
You're right, a lot of the emphasis is on those
bigger companies like the mag seven, if you will, but
there's been some other companies out there that've had, you know,
some very good returns this year. I mean, you know,
Western Digital is one example for an AI play. You know,
they've had an extraordinary run up this year, and they're
not in those top seven. That's why it's really important

(07:04):
to have, you know, the broader diversification and when you
look at returns kind of across different sectors or asset classes.
You mentioned large caps up about eighteen percent. You know,
small caps have had a pretty good year. Two through
Friday at least, they're up about fifteen percent. And when
you look outside of the US, it's actually been even
better with both developed markets, which is which are countries

(07:24):
like Europe as an example, in Japan, as well as
emerging markets which include you know, China and you know, India, Mexico.
You know, on average, those those they're up around thirty percent,
so it's been even better outside of the US.

Speaker 1 (07:38):
Now.

Speaker 2 (07:38):
Part of that is due to a declining dollar, which
is off about eight percent for the year. So but
the point is that regardless of where you've looked this
past year, there have been some positive returns. So you
don't want to always push all of your eggs in
one basket, and you know that's not something that you know,
we're big believers in. But when you think about just
the big picture of diversification being diversified this year, you know,

(08:01):
every acid class is done pretty good. So as long
as you've had some diversification kind of spread out, you know,
you've been hanging in there and you've been doing pretty
well as long as you haven't made any emotional decison,
because you remember back in April, that's when the market was,
you know, kind of in a free fall because the
world is coming to you and oh no, AI spending
is collapsing, and there were so many other worries up
in the market was down in large cuts, down about

(08:22):
nineteen percent or very very quickly. As long as you
didn't panic, you did pretty well this year so far.

Speaker 3 (08:27):
So let's talk a little more about about asset allocation,
because I think one of the one of the areas
that people have been frustrated with over the past decade
or so, maybe even longer, is fixed income, right cause
we all know we need something to offset the stock market,
and for a long time that's just been the assumption
that we need an occasion of bonds. And when I
started this industry thirty some years ago, the recommendation of
the rule of thumb was your age in bonds. And

(08:49):
I'm thinking at the tender age of fifty one, half
of my portfolio would have been in something that's been
underperforming forever. So but that's not the case anymore. Bonds
are finally starting to perform again. Are we feeling differently
than we have over the past ten to fifteen years,
so that bonds can be more reliable part of the portfolio.

Speaker 2 (09:04):
When you look at bonds over the long run where
you typically see their returns go. When I say long run,
like maybe over the next ten years on average, When
you have like a forward looking it's really based on
what that starting yield is. So right now, with a
yields around four percent, do you eve or take? That's
where you might be able to see some your total
return really look like over the next few years. On average,

(09:25):
when you look at what's been going on this year,
bonds have had a really good year. I mean, treasury
bonds are about six percent, corporate bonds are up about
seven and a half percent, And that just highlights that
not all bonds are created equals. So it'll really depend on,
you know, what the economic environment is. So when the
economy is doing fine, you know, corporate bonds will tend.

Speaker 4 (09:41):
To be better.

Speaker 2 (09:42):
When you start to see that scare, that's where treasury
bonds often perform a little better, and that's why you
want to have that diversification, even within the fixed income side.
So when I'm thinking about bonds in general, I'm thinking
about asset glasses overall. You know, bonds certainly provide a
ballast for you, like you're saying, Brian, or stock market volatility,
you know, but just a bigger picture, it comes down

(10:03):
to being able to make sure you have that right
investment mix so you avoid those emotional decisions.

Speaker 4 (10:09):
Now if you have.

Speaker 2 (10:10):
The uh, the wherewithal to withstand the volatility like we
had back in April and not make any you know,
rash decisions, and you don't and you need that risk
if you have the willingness to take the risk, the
need to take the risk, you know, having that equity
out higher equity allocation probably makes sense. But that's where
it comes back to financial planning. That's why you want
to make sure that you have that investments to support
your financial plan. Now if you're unable to uh manage

(10:34):
that volatility, because let's face that, people are not rational.
We tend to make the worst decisions when our emotions
are flaring up. It's easy to say, yes, I want
to you know, buy low and sell high. But when
push comes to sub when you see the blood in
the streets, and it's a little harder to to say, okay,
well everything's down, I want to buy now. That's when
people panic and that's what and that's when they want

(10:55):
to sell. That's why having a financial plan to guide
that asset allocation is critical.

Speaker 1 (11:00):
And right the right investment risk. I mean touch a
little bit on gold because a lot a lot of
our clients have been asking about this, you know, and
I think to your point on emotion, I mean, Gold's
up nearly sixty percent this year. So when any asset
club goes up or any stock goes up by that amount,
you know, the calls are going to come in and say,
should we be participating? Uh, we usually don't get a

(11:23):
sixty percent up year in gold. That doesn't happen very often.
Is this a sign of longer term inflation worries or
just to flight to safety or just a speculative run
At this point, talk to us a little bit about
gold and where you see gold, you know, moving into
twenty twenty six.

Speaker 2 (11:41):
Well, it certainly had a good year. Repeat of sixty
percent back to back years would be relatively unprecedented for
pretty much any asset class out there. So it seems
unlikely that we see anything like that, you know, and
when we think about what's been driving a lot of
it has been i'll call it that inflation fears and
also just a lot of speculative invest who have been

(12:01):
looking to capitalize on recent run ups. So you're probably
seeing a little bit of a push in that area.
Will that continue? I mean it's tough to say. I
would be shocked if we did see another sixty percent
return though in twenty twenty six.

Speaker 1 (12:14):
All right, thanks Andy. Coming up next, why many people
think a seventh figure net worth isn't enough and how
you can overcome that mindset challenge. You're listening to Simply
Money presented by all Worth Financial on fifty five KARC,
the talk station. You're listening to Simply Money presented by

(12:35):
all Worth Financial. I'm Bob Sponsller along with Brian James.
If you can't listen to Simply Money live every night,
subscribe and get our daily podcast. You can listen the
following morning during your commute or at the gym, or
while you're out Christmas shopping. Imagine that, and if you
think your friends or family could use some financial advice,
tell them about us as well. Just search Simply Money

(12:57):
on the iHeart app or wherever you find your podcast.
Straight Ahead at six forty three from ETF Strategies to
S and P five hundred Concentration Risk, We're going to
take on your most nuanced investing questions. Well. For years,
hitting quote unquote millionaire status a net worth of a

(13:18):
million dollars was the gold standard. It meant you were rich,
you were financially successful, maybe even set for life. But
a new wave of data reveals a confusing twist. Many
millionaires aren't feeling that wealthy. Brian, Yeah, talk about this
latest survey, and I'm not surprised at all by these

(13:38):
numbers you're about to share.

Speaker 3 (13:40):
Yeah, it's a recent survey from Northwestern Mutual. Only about
three and ten Americans with at least a million dollars
in investable assets think of themselves as wealthy, and Bob,
I think you can confirm this too, as can all
the other all Worth advisors that whenever we do a
financial plan, and part of that is constructing your net
worth statement for people and we point out exactly where

(14:00):
they are, and I'll always ask people, do you feel
like a millionaire? And in my three decades of doing this,
no one has ever said yes. We've always got that
voice in the back of our heads. It just tells
us that we're not okay and we're going to need some,
you know, a little bit of help, you know, getting
to that, to that confident feeling, which good thing the
financial plan.

Speaker 4 (14:17):
I guess, well, where's this coming from?

Speaker 3 (14:19):
So this is it's inflation and cost of living, Bob,
A million dollars simply doesn't buy what it did decades ago.

Speaker 4 (14:25):
It's not that.

Speaker 3 (14:26):
Over abundance that it used to be, making us feel
like it feel comfortable, that we can really pay for
any bill that comes down the pipe.

Speaker 1 (14:33):
I think yeah, And I think the key is the
words you just used decades ago. I mean those of
us that are in our forties, fifties, and sixties, I
mean we were we were raised thinking that being a
millionaire was again the gold standard. If you got there,
you were set. But look, we're not talking about recent inflation.
We're just talking about normal inflation that has accumulated over ten, twenty,

(14:56):
thirty forty years. And you know, I'm not you know,
thumbing my nose at a million dollars. It's a lot
of money, but in terms of replacing a paycheck and retiring,
people need to realize that a million dollars today is
not nearly what it was thirty years ago. And I
think people just need to make a paradigm shift and
to your point, put together an actual financial plan which

(15:20):
lays out the numbers on what is it going to
take to be able to retire in the manner in
which you have become accustomed to living from a lifestyle standpoint,
and I think this is just catching more and more
people off guard.

Speaker 4 (15:34):
Yeah, it also has to do with where these assets are.

Speaker 3 (15:37):
You know, a lot of times people don't understand it
and really have no idea what their net worth is
because not all assets are you know, first of all,
in one place where you can easily track with the
value everything is. And then we're all accustomed to, you know,
logging into our four one k's that kind of thing.
You can see exactly what it was worth as of
yesterday's market clothes, sometimes even today's current prices.

Speaker 4 (15:55):
But that doesn't do any good for.

Speaker 3 (15:56):
Real estate other types of harder investments that just aren't
valued on a day basis, so people don't take the time.

Speaker 4 (16:01):
Well, some do.

Speaker 3 (16:02):
Some have that obsessive Excel spreadsheet they update once a
week or once a day, as it may be, but
you know, we just don't have the visibility to it
as well. But that's also a problem of liquidity. You know,
some of these investments are not very liquid. I may
have several million dollars worth of real estate, but I
can't turn it around tomorrow. It's not a checking account,
so I can't unnecessarily access it very quickly without making

(16:23):
some permanent decisions and jumping through a lot of hoops
to get that to a point where I need whether
I'm literally selling it or borrowing against it. Those aren't
very quick types of types of investments there.

Speaker 1 (16:34):
Yeah, And just to drive this point home again with
with just some simple math, Brian, I mean, the rule
of thumb for years and years in decades has been,
you know, whatever you have saved up, play on a
withdrawal rate of somewhere let's say four four and a half,
you know, maximum five percent, and that way you'll preserve
your principle, maybe have it grow a little bit at

(16:57):
the inflation rate and be able to replace your income. Well,
let's just say even at the high end of that
five percent of a million dollars is fifty grand. Ask
yourself out there, am I living on more than fifty
thousand dollars right now? And if the answer to that's yes,
or or maybe even double that amount, well a million
dollars is not going to get it done. You know,

(17:18):
we can layer on things like social security and if
you have a pension income, but hopefully you get our
point here, four to five percent of a million dollars
is not going to replace most people's lifestyle in twenty
twenty five. And so Debriyan's point, you do have to
put together a financial plan for your individual situation. It

(17:38):
doesn't matter what your neighbors are doing or what you
see on social media social media, it matters what your
lifestyle is. And the sooner you can get out in
front of this and plan accordingly, you're not going to
get into your fifties and sixties and be, you know,
get that negative surprise that you just are not on
track to be able to retire in the manner in

(17:59):
which you would like.

Speaker 3 (18:01):
So let's talk about solutions here. What can we do
to get ourselves out of this sort of bubble of.

Speaker 4 (18:06):
Lack of confidence.

Speaker 3 (18:07):
Well, well, make sure you've got liquidity, make sure you
have what you need that you can get to. So
keep a portion of these assets and more easy to
access accounts outside of real estate, outside retirement accounts. You know,
this is sometimes known as an emergency fund as well
as you know, just just kind of that mid term
funding things that I you know, I think we all
have a general, generally good understanding of the fact that
I need cash to pay the bills here in the

(18:28):
shorter run, but maybe think about those shorter to medium
term goals. I know, I'm going to buy a car
next year. We've got that wedding to pay for whatever
those things are. Make sure those are out there. Just
the idea that okay, yeah, we got to a big
bill coming up, but we already know how we're going
to pay for it. Then that doesn't sit in the
back of your head and eat away at you that
you've got this massive bill if you already have kind
of a sinking fund for it. And then also a
diversify not just for growth. A lot of us are obsessed,

(18:50):
you know, with a stock market and those types of
growth assets, so we can inflate our networth. But remember
at some point it's okay, you're allowed to switch these
assets on to start producing income. So this is dividend stocks,
maybe you've rental, real estate, buffer ETF, dividend focused funds,
those kinds of things where you're creating cash flow instead
of just expanding that networth.

Speaker 4 (19:09):
A number there, and you do have.

Speaker 1 (19:11):
To plan for some longer term risks, SEINQ. What's of
return risk if we have a market correction, I mean,
just plane on inflation, which you know, no matter what
rate we are today, we can I think we can
all agree inflation is not going away forever. It's a
thing and it has to be factored into your cash flow,
planning and taxes. And this is a good time to

(19:32):
mention a good trusted advisor if you know, if they're
doing their job, they're going to ask the right questions
and help you build this type of financial plan that
we're talking about and hopefully get you on the right
track to not worry about so much the term millionaire,
but focus more on what you need to do to
get to where you need to be for your plan

(19:54):
lifestyle needs. Here's the all Worth advice. Real wealth is
not just what you're worth, it's what you can access,
how securely you live, and how confident you can feel
about your future. Next, we'll break down three big gaps
you should understand if you decide to leave the workforce
before eight sixty five. You're listening to Simply Money, presented

(20:15):
by all Worth Financial on fifty five KRC. The talk
station you're listening to, Simply Money was ied my all
Worth Financial on Bob spond Seller along with Brian James.
More and more people are stepping away from the workforce
earlier than expected. Sometimes it's an eye out that happens.

(20:37):
Sometimes it's just burnout. Sometimes it's frankly the sense that hey,
I've saved enough out of here. But here's what a
lot of folks don't realize. And Brian, we're gonna get
into this healthcare cost thing. Walking away early from the
workforce opens up three big planning gaps that can quietly

(20:57):
cost folks hundreds of thousands of if they're not careful
and don't plan ahead. Let's get into it, because this
this comes up more and more, at least in the
meetings that I have with clients. People are looking to
get out early before sixty five, and I think oftentimes
they're shocked. It's some of the things that they need

(21:18):
to plan for that perhaps they had not thought of.

Speaker 3 (21:21):
Yeah, Bob, this is the that window between I really
if they like, I've saved enough money to pay the bills,
but I'm not yet old enough to take advantage of
the retirement benefits that the country has put in place,
most specifically social Security and medicare so kind of that
financial limbo. So well, today we're going to walk through
these three gaps that we've identified, you know, through through
building plans and plans for people to help them.

Speaker 4 (21:41):
Bridge these issues.

Speaker 3 (21:42):
So, first, Office of Healthcare, this is the big one.
So Medicare eligibility begins at age sixty five for everybody.
But obviously, if you're going to go away in your
late fifties, you know, say fifty eight, Well that's seven years.

Speaker 4 (21:51):
You got to cover that bill some other way.

Speaker 3 (21:54):
So a lot of people think they can just jump
on the Affordable Care Act exchange, but a lot of
but the premiums can be really high. You're looking at
for an individual one thousand, maybe fifteen hundred bucks a month,
depending on the kind of care you need. But also
if you're married now you got to kind of double
that too. There's a few ways around this. Remember, if
you may have access to cobra, this should buy you
a little bit of time. You should have the ability

(22:16):
to have your your former employer continue to keep you
as a part of their group even though you have
separated from service. That is usually limited to eighteen months
for you and the spouse, and you'll be paying both habs.

Speaker 4 (22:28):
Rest assured.

Speaker 3 (22:28):
It's still going to get more expensive, but you're part
of a group, so it's cheaper versus the Affordable Care
Act plans where you will be you'll be buying it
off the shelf as an individual.

Speaker 4 (22:38):
So and as well as you can also right right now.

Speaker 3 (22:41):
There are subsidies. These subsidies are in question right there.
There are hot topics right now. The income that you generate,
right if you have income coming in from investments, you've
been doing roth conversions, well, then you may lose access
to some of these subsidies, meaning those premiums are going
to go up, and so you're going to kind of
lose the affordable in the Affordable Care Act. So this
is why if you're going to pull the trigger on this,
be sure that you're looking with eyes wide open at

(23:02):
the solutions you have, whether that's going to be COBRA,
the ACA, or structuring those withdrawals to make sure you
stay below those certain income threshold when you're buying off
the shelf. But regardless, it needs to be a big
part of the strategy.

Speaker 1 (23:14):
All right, let's talk about gap number two, something we'll
call the income timing gap. And this one's sneaky. Most
people aren't thinking about, you know, fifty nine and a half,
sixty five, seventy three. You know some key ages here
on when assets become available or when you must take
assets out of qualified plan accounts. A lot some people think, hey,

(23:35):
I've got this pile of money, I'll just use it.
But if you start pulling from a four to one
K account before each fifty nine and a half, you
could trigger early withdrawal penalties if things are not structured correctly.
On the flip side, if you wait too long, you
could get slammed with required minimum distributions at age seventy three.
So there's some planning that needs to take place there

(23:57):
with regard to your four oh one ks and even
IRA as well. So the sweet spot, and we talk
about this all the time, Brian, is often between your
work years and when the government triggers kick in, you know,
Medicare and Social Security. That's the window for roth conversions,
capital gains, harvesting, strategic withdrawals, things like that. But put

(24:18):
to your prior point, if you get into some of
these strategies for longer term tax efficiency, that can throw
your income much higher than where you're going to be
able to qualify for some of these ACA ACA subsidies.
So there's a lot of planning and discussion and weighing
pros and cons of this before you just pull the trigger.

(24:40):
What we're talking about here is really putting together a
customized income plan rather than just winging it, because the
consequences of winging it can be severe.

Speaker 3 (24:52):
Yeah, and a lot, and you're you're going to have
to choose between which goal you're going to prioritize and
which goal you're going to sacrifice. You know that there's
no way to get all these things set in a
way where you can benefit the most from each one
of them. For example, let's say you're passionate about ROTH conversions.
This is that same window of time. Ironically, when your
income drops before you have turned on Social Security, and

(25:13):
definitely before age seventy three or seventy five, depending on
your age, when require minimum distributions come in, that's the
best window to do ROTH conversions. However, roth conversions work
directly immediately against your ACA premiums, that that's going to
be a solution for you.

Speaker 4 (25:27):
So you'll just have to figure out what is your.

Speaker 3 (25:28):
Comfort zone for getting those ROTH conversions done for tax
free growth forever versus having a little bit of a
premium attached to your medicarriature your medical insurance costs there
So moving on, let's go to the market risk gap.
Guess what investments go up and down? We don't get
to control that, and that's the biggest risk. That's really

(25:49):
kind of the hardest to see. What we call sequence
of returns, and then we discuss it frequently here. What
this really means is that the worst thing that can
happen to anybody is for the market to take a
big hit early in retirement. This doesn't happen very often.
We're talking about the big years where we have huge swings.
So we've had a few of them somewhat recently, and
I'm referring to twenty twenty two. So somebody who retired
in twenty twenty one immediately saw their portfolio take some

(26:11):
kind of the hit. I would say at least ten
to twenty percent, depending on how they were invested. Hopefully
not everything was still in the market at that time
if they had retired, but some people did go through
that also, two thousand and eight, those kinds of things,
those kinds of years. So even if you have the
same portfolio, same average rate of return, those bad years
early mean the math is just going to work against you.
Your number might come up. Sometimes this happens to people.

(26:33):
Cash flow strategy is going to matter. So one approach
we like to use with clients who might be exposed
to this is working out of a bucket system, right,
So let's create a bucket and let's just make sure
we've got the first year or two worth of expenses
in really conservative or just things like cash money markets, CDs,
those kinds of things time to come do when that
bill comes due. So that when we know we have

(26:54):
significant bills coming due, maybe it's that big family trip
that you've always wanted to take, that's come and do
it a year, year and a half, those kinds of things.
As you're rounding out your family obligations, make sure that
money is somewhere where can where you can get to
it easily and it's not really at risk. That way,
you won't have the longer term. That really does two things.
It protects that expense, that bill from not getting paid,
and it will also protect your longer term assets. That

(27:16):
will then you know very well are going to ride
the waves a little bit, but if you know you're
not going to be dipping into them, that makes it
that much more comfortable to have to pay those bills.

Speaker 1 (27:24):
Yeah, this sequence of return risk is real and a
lot of people don't think about it because, let's face it, Brian.
When we're working and we're just socking money away in
our four to one k's and we're in the what
we'll call the accumulation phase, you don't really care about
sequence of return. All you care about is what's my
average rate of return over the years and decades, because

(27:44):
that's what builds wealth. Well. When you start turning that
wealth into a paycheck, volatility matters, and that's really what
Brian just talked about here, and this is why you
have to be intentional about planning ahead of some of
this potential volatility which always comes, and make sure your
income strategy is aligned with your goals and needs in

(28:06):
the short term. Here's the all Worth advice. Leaving the
workforce early doesn't mean you're at the finish line. You're
just at one stage of a longer, often more complex race.
Confused by top heavy markets, real yields or real assets.
We'll tackle your biggest investment questions next. You're listening to

(28:27):
Simply Money presented by all Worth Financial on fifty five
KRC the talk station. You're listening to Simply Money presented
by all Worth Financial on Bob Sponsorlar along with Brian James.
Do you have a financial question you'd like for us
to answer. Well, there's a red button you can click
while you're listening to the show. If you're listening on

(28:48):
the iHeart app, simply record your question and it will
come straight to us. Paul in Montgomery leads us off
tonight Brian. He says, we've always used mutual funds in
our four to one k, but I've heard ETFs can
be way more tax efficient. Does that matter inside a
retirement account or does it only matter in taxable accounts?

Speaker 4 (29:09):
Great question, No, it doesn't matter.

Speaker 3 (29:11):
Next question, Uh, No, I'm kidding, of course, But yeah,
this is this is a fairly simple one, but with
with some with some details behind it, because it's not
something to be ignored. But tax efficiency is only relevant
to a non retirement account. Retirement accounts, by definition, are
tax sheltered there that's either raw if you're not paying
any taxes at all, or it was pre tax meaning
you deducted it. Uh, and you're you're going to pay

(29:32):
income taxes out the back end. But the important thing
to your question, Paul is that, no, the activity inside
the accounts, while it stays inside the accounts, doesn't have
any impact on your on your current year's taxes. Now
that doesn't mean to ignore you know that you've got
mutual funds versus ETFs. Those kinds of things. ETFs are
a little bit tough. I don't I don't know that
I've even seen an ETF in a retirement plan four

(29:52):
win K retirement plan other than where somebody has their
own broker's account attached to it, where sometimes you can
do that, but you're truly doing your own thing at
that point. So don't don't bang your head against Waalt
too hard looking for ETFs inside your four oh one k's.
Most four oh one k's have put the effort into
finding the cheapest of mutual funds out there that they
possibly can. There are mechanical reasons for this. It is

(30:13):
a little bit tougher to divide ETFs up into a
small amount that's coming out of you know, somebody these paycheck.
If somebody's got one hundred bucks going in their paycheck
and then spread across fifteen funds, that's a pretty tiny
dollar amount. Mutual funds are better equipped to handle that
over time. So you know, you do want to pay
attention to cost, that's the big factor. But don't be
disappointed that you're not seeing ETFs in there. But and again,
set aside your tax concerns. That's going to be totally

(30:35):
dictated by whether you've got wroth or pre tax dollars
in there or after tax. That's a different question than
the investments inside. All right, So now we're going to
move on to Harry in Westchester, and Harry is thinking
about the different types of investments in what they yield.
Confused about real versus nominal yield on bonds? What's the
difference between those two and how do you evaluate whether
a bond is truly protecting your purchasing power?

Speaker 1 (30:55):
Bob, Well, Harry, I mean, let's just define these terms.
Nominal yield is just what I'll call the yield that's
on the sticker on the window shield. It's the gross
yield on a bond, fairly easy to find. And what
you got to evaluate, though, is whether that's going to
get you where you need to be in terms of
purchasing power. So we got to factor in two other

(31:17):
things in addition to nominal yield. One is inflation and
the other is taxes. So you know that's where you
got to sit down and say, what am I truly
getting you know, out the door here factoring in those
two things other than nominal yield, and see your bonds
are getting you where you need to be in terms
of what that bond portion of your financial plan needs

(31:40):
to accomplish. That's really the difference between nominal and real.
When they talk about real yield. Real yield is just
the yield adjusted for inflation. So again inflation, real yield,
nominal yield, taxes. You got to factor all that stuff
into how to construct properly construct a bond portfolio. Greg

(32:01):
and hyde Park says, with the S and P five
hundred so top heavy, right now, how do you decide
whether equal weight indexing or market cap weighting makes more
sense for long term growth? I'm glad Greg is asking
this question. It appears that he's been listening to us, Brian,
because we've been hitting on this topic often this year.

Speaker 4 (32:22):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (32:22):
So the question behind the question here is is when
the S and P five hundred is as top heavy
as it is today, meaning that the largest companies drive
most of the indexes returns the way it's constructed, then
the question is should investor stick with market cap waiting
or shift to equal weighting?

Speaker 4 (32:37):
Well, the market cap.

Speaker 3 (32:38):
Weighting gives the biggest companies the biggest influence versus an
equal weight where every company has the same seat at
the table, the one you're seeing crawling across the bottom
of your TV screen that is cap weighted, meaning the
bigger the company, the larger the impact that has on
the index. And that's where we're talking about Nvidia and
Apple and those biggest.

Speaker 4 (32:56):
Companies out there driving everything.

Speaker 3 (32:58):
So generally speaking, though over the last thirty years, equal
weight has often outperformed, but that usually happens only in
the environments where there's some kind of leadership rotation away
from megacaps. We haven't seen that in a while. Smaller
companies tend to rebound after periods of unperformance. So in contrast,
when a handful of the big ones dominate, think of
the late nineties or even the past several years, market

(33:19):
cap weighting will pull ahead because you're riding the winners
out at full strength. So think about if you're going
to make a choice between these two. First of all,
don't agonize too much over this. This isn't the pot
of gold at the end of the rainbow. It's just
to understand, you know, how these things are constructed and
what the impacts are. But to think about what you
feel about market leadership. If you feel like today's you know,
megacaps are going to keep compounding, well, then going with
that market cap weighting makes sense the way it's currently constructed.

Speaker 1 (33:42):
You know.

Speaker 3 (33:42):
On the other hand, if you're rebalancing preference, if that
is more important to you, then you're going to want
to focus on the equal weight because using an index
is not going to allow you to rebalance very efficiently
because it's always going to be market cap weighted. And
then also risk tolerance it has a lot to do
with this equal weight is going to be a little
more volatile because of the tilt towards the smaller companies
which will have bigger swings. So there really isn't a need,

(34:04):
though to pick one side here. Both of them can
work as long as you understand what the impact. I
think it's much more more philosophical in terms of understanding
how these things are built and being able to kind
of anticipate what you'll be feeling as things move around.

Speaker 4 (34:17):
I will move on to Uh, We'll move on.

Speaker 3 (34:18):
To Marke in cold Spring, who's got for one more here,
He's got questions about growth versus value. He's asking how
they how do those two different things behave in different
economic cycles, and how do you map that portfolio to
these different outcomes?

Speaker 1 (34:31):
Well, Mark, I mean growth funds are growth ETFs. I
mean it is what the word implies, earnings growth and
a lot of times the pe ratios can get high,
meaning the price versus a unit of earnings. And you know,
we talk about the cap weighting of the s and
P five hundred all the time. Brian's has covered that.
So just understand when when when these stocks have made
a run like they have, you're paying up for this

(34:53):
growth and you're assuming that that growth and that growth
rate is going to continue. Value funds or value ETFs
are more focused on the health of the balance sheet.
They often pay higher dividends. Those can be more sensitive
to interest rate fluctuations. So you're gonna have less volatility
in general in value funds or value ets and growth.

(35:15):
You're also going to have a little bit less upside
in healthy markets. So and again remember the dividends matter
because when interest rates start to move around, uh, if
people think they're going to get more value with less
risk by investing in bonds, they'll tend to sell out
as some of these value stocks because on a risk

(35:36):
adjusted basis, they see more value in bonds or Casher
equivalents even sometimes. So that's a little bit how these
different you know, vehicles behave under different economic regimes. All right,
before you close the books on twenty twenty five, are
you sure you took your required minimum distribution correctly? We're

(35:56):
gonna walk through a checklist next that can hopefully seave
you from that looming twenty five percent penalty that is
out there for unsuspecting folks. You're listening to Simply Money
presented by all Worth Financial on fifty five KRC the
talk station. You're listening to Simply Money presented by all

(36:17):
Worth Financial on Bob Sponseller along with Brian James. All Right,
we're getting down to the end of the year, and
if you're a seventy three or older, or you inherited
a retirement account, the IRS literally has their handout. We're
talking about requirement required minimum distributions or r mds for
short Brian, But in the interest of time, I want

(36:40):
to cover one of these that really catches some people
off guard. Often under the New Secure Act and that's
these inherited iras. The rules for an inherited iras have
changed big time. And if you're a non spouse beneficiary,
you might be on that ten year rule. And even

(37:01):
so you might still owe an RMD this year. Will
you cover what we need to be on the lookout
for in that situation.

Speaker 3 (37:08):
Yeah, that's so. These rules did change a lot. So
in twenty twenty. For anybody who died before twenty twenty,
you're subject to the original rules, which were that you
could spread out that distribution over your lifetime. There's a
calculation you got to go through, but you as the beneficiary,
which spread it out over your remaining thirty forty fifty
sixty years of life, and it wasn't that much. Now,

(37:29):
anybody who passed after twenty twenty, you have to take
it all out within ten years. And I think we're
five years into this now, so I think people kind
of get the notion that I have to have a
ten year clock kind of ticking in my head.

Speaker 4 (37:41):
I got to liquidate the whole thing. And this is
all about paying taxes.

Speaker 3 (37:43):
By the way, it's not that you know, the IRS
isn't going to confiscate your money. You just have to
pay taxes on it, and it loses its tax shelter
from then on. After you pull the money out, you
do whatever it is that you want to do with
it. It's just like any other dollar in your checking account.
But here's the big rule that changed this year. You
may have to you probably you do have to take
at least a small amount of require minimum distribution If

(38:04):
that person who preceded you and bequeathed this unto you,
if they themselves were of require minimum distribution age, then
you do need to take.

Speaker 4 (38:12):
Out a minimal amount. It's not nearly as much as
it used to be.

Speaker 3 (38:15):
But at the same time, you can't just do nothing
anymore in that particular situation and wait until year tend
to liquidate. So make sure you've got several weeks left
to sort this out. Has to get done by the
end of the calendar year. Make sure you're on top
of that.

Speaker 1 (38:27):
Here's the ll Worth advice. The IRS doesn't just accept
I forgot as an excuse. Make sure you're planning accordingly
for your rmds, and you only got twenty two days
or so to do it, and Christmas is coming up,
people are getting busy. Make sure you get out in
front of this now. Thanks for listening tonight. You've been
listening to Simply Money, saided by all Worth Financial on

(38:48):
fifty five KRC, the talk station

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