Red meat may no longer be the star of the Christmas dinner table.
The price of sirloin and porterhouse steaks and lamb chops rose about 25-percent in the past year, and beef mince and sausages more than 10-percent.
But poultry and pork have stayed at or below the rate of inflation.
Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen told Andrew Dickens that a summer salad's more affordable.
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Speaker 1 (00:09):
You're listening to a podcast from News Talks'd be follow
this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Families may be paying more for the food on their
tables this Christmas, but you'll be paying less for some
of the gifts under the tree. According to stats New
Zealand Data, food has had a sharp increase. Bread is
up fifty three percent, the Kiwi fruit for your pav
up forty four percent, which means, of course Kiwis will
be paying on average four hundred and fifteen dollars at
the supermarket for their Christmas meal. The good news, toys,
(00:39):
electronics and men's clothing, amongst others, have dropped in price
since last year. We have infometric CEO Brad Olsen with
us at Merry Christmas to you, Bred.
Speaker 3 (00:49):
Merry Christmas to you Andrew as well.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
So what foods should families be avoiding if they want
to save cash for tomorrow's feast.
Speaker 3 (00:57):
Well, look, if you're keen enough to brave the crowds
at the supermarket today, are the likes of your your
beef steak or mints and the likes of your lamb
is going to cost you quite a bit more. And
you know a lot of other options. Over the last year,
there's been some pretty big price increases. Steak is up
twenty seven percent over the last year, mince is up
(01:18):
fifteen percent, Lamb chops and lamb roasts twenty five and
forty three percent, respectively higher, So all of those costing
you a lot more. And if you haven't already set
down the plans for the Christmas meal yet, it might
well pay to potentially avoid using the barbecue, given that
gas prices have increased, you know, sort of around seventeen
(01:39):
percent over the last year. I'd probably be looking more
at sort of you know, maybe a pork roast or
chicken skewers were similar to make things slightly more affordable
this Christmas isak.
Speaker 2 (01:48):
What we're doing, We're having pork belly at our house. Meanwhile,
what foods have dropped the most in cost? I know,
I bought five ears of corn for five bucks the
other day, and that's good.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Yes, you're definitely sort of seeing some better options over
time coming through, and I think a lot of that
has to do with, you know, some of the produce
that's that's emerging as well. You know, it's a bit
more of a seasonal time, So some options are coming
through better if you're looking through it, you know, putting
together a summer salad is a bit more affordable. Let
(02:19):
Us is down nearly thirteen percent, Carrots down about the same,
Rice down a touch one point eight percent, if you're
looking a sort of branch out from the usual sort
of Christmas barbecue or summer ham So definitely some other
options out there. But I think, you know, for a
lot of families, one of the biggest challenges this Christmas
will be figuring out how to pay for the summer meal,
(02:39):
and so a lot of money probably going on that,
given everyone gets the family together at Christmas time, probably
leaving a little bit less available for putting stuff under
the tree.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Yeah, okay, I'm going to talk more about this. We
talk back a little bit later on this morning. And
can I just say last night we had the family
together for the first time. We had chicken that was
cheapest chips, well it's cheaper than chips actually really an
a meso sauce and it was delicious. A little bit
of ice cream and some coffee of the cure and
it was a meal fit for the for a king
and fifteen bucks ago if you think about it, you
can do it. Can I ask you what's behind the
(03:11):
changes in the food prices?
Speaker 3 (03:13):
Look in particular with the meat, it's a supply and
demand issue where there's quite a lot of demand for
New Zealand beef or just beef in general across the
worlds for lamb as well, but it's not quite as
much of it. Over in one of the biggest markets
in the US, they've got the lowest beef stock numbers
in about fifty years. So they want to be eating beef,
but they just don't have the animals available. Even here
(03:35):
in New Zealand, we've seen a four percent decrease in
the volume of beef and lamb killed over the last
twelve months, and so again it's just a little bit
of a change around in that supply demand dynamic. Whereas
the likes of you know, chicken in pork, there's still
enough of it around, Demands still healthy, but it's sort
of you haven't seen those animal numbers come back quite
as much.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
What about retail, what's the trends with retail.
Speaker 3 (03:59):
Well, it really depends on exactly what's being spent on.
We had some worldline data out earlier this week for
the first three weeks of December, showing that spending on
the likes of food and look like we've just been
talking about, you know, going to the supermarket getting your food,
that spending remains well above last year's levels each and
every week, but spending on core retail has been a
(04:21):
little bit more subdued. So going out and next you're
doing that present shop, people are obviously, you know, putting
the money towards the food and putting less on the presents.
But it's also interesting it depends on what you're buying.
You know, people aren't spending quite as much on the
likes of you know, chocolate and other options because they've
gone up in priced quite a bit more. There's still
a lot of deals though that you're starting to see
(04:41):
coming through, for the likes of you know, toys and
outdoor equipment and the likes I mean. I saw Brisco
as the start of their their Boxing Day sale, you know,
quite a few days before Boxing Day, which sort of
suggests that, look, there are businesses out there they haven't
had as good of sales as they would have liked
through the year. They're really trying to sort of provide
a reason for people to get out and spend, and
(05:02):
of course households are looking for sort of as good
of a discount, as good of a sort of sale
as possible, so that it is trying to sort of
tempt people to spend a bit more by offering those
slightly cheaper options.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
I've had a text while you were talking from a
fellow who says, according to those stats you mentioned, New
Zealanders have spent three point two billion dollars this December.
He did some maths and reckons that's four hundred and
twenty million dollars in GSC which is going to go
to the government. That's a lot of money for the
government which they could use in paying down the debt.
So that's true. This is why the government wants you
(05:33):
to get out there and actually start spending, because they
would like more money.
Speaker 3 (05:38):
Well exactly. And of course if you've got that more
spending going through the economy, then all our s being equal,
you're going to start to see some better demand from
the businesses. They'll probably be making some more profits, so
there'll be more tax to the government, and they might
employ some more people who will then pay the paye,
which is more tax. Again. So again as we start
to see those interest rates come down as you know,
people start to feel a little bit more positive about
(06:00):
the economy. We do expect that spending to pick up,
but look at Christmas time, it's always the sort of
biggest spend up time of the year. Around about midday
today will be the sort of peak time for spending.
You know, people will be out in force. I'm hoping
to stay well away from the shops given the chaos
that I saw yesterday here and praying to day. But look,
you know, all the best to those who are going
(06:20):
out and spending. The economy certainly salutes you for it,
but you know, be kind in the crowds because there
seems to be a lot of chaos out there.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
Merry Christmas to you, Brand Allison. Thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
For more from News Talk sed B. Listen live on
air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever
you go with our podcast on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to a podcast from News Talks'd be follow
this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Families may be paying more for the food on their
tables this Christmas, but you'll be paying less for some
of the gifts under the tree. According to stats New
Zealand Data, food has had a sharp increase. Bread is
up fifty three percent, the Kiwi fruit for your pav
up forty four percent, which means, of course Kiwis will
be paying on average four hundred and fifteen dollars at
the supermarket for their Christmas meal. The good news, toys,
(00:39):
electronics and men's clothing, amongst others, have dropped in price
since last year. We have infometric CEO Brad Olsen with
us at Merry Christmas to you, Bred.
Speaker 3 (00:49):
Merry Christmas to you Andrew as well.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
So what foods should families be avoiding if they want
to save cash for tomorrow's feast.
Speaker 3 (00:57):
Well, look, if you're keen enough to brave the crowds
at the supermarket today, are the likes of your your
beef steak or mints and the likes of your lamb
is going to cost you quite a bit more. And
you know a lot of other options. Over the last year,
there's been some pretty big price increases. Steak is up
twenty seven percent over the last year, mince is up
(01:18):
fifteen percent, Lamb chops and lamb roasts twenty five and
forty three percent, respectively higher, So all of those costing
you a lot more. And if you haven't already set
down the plans for the Christmas meal yet, it might
well pay to potentially avoid using the barbecue, given that
gas prices have increased, you know, sort of around seventeen
(01:39):
percent over the last year. I'd probably be looking more
at sort of you know, maybe a pork roast or
chicken skewers were similar to make things slightly more affordable
this Christmas isak.
Speaker 2 (01:48):
What we're doing, We're having pork belly at our house. Meanwhile,
what foods have dropped the most in cost? I know,
I bought five ears of corn for five bucks the
other day, and that's good.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Yes, you're definitely sort of seeing some better options over
time coming through, and I think a lot of that
has to do with, you know, some of the produce
that's that's emerging as well. You know, it's a bit
more of a seasonal time, So some options are coming
through better if you're looking through it, you know, putting
together a summer salad is a bit more affordable. Let
(02:19):
Us is down nearly thirteen percent, Carrots down about the same,
Rice down a touch one point eight percent, if you're
looking a sort of branch out from the usual sort
of Christmas barbecue or summer ham So definitely some other
options out there. But I think, you know, for a
lot of families, one of the biggest challenges this Christmas
will be figuring out how to pay for the summer meal,
(02:39):
and so a lot of money probably going on that,
given everyone gets the family together at Christmas time, probably
leaving a little bit less available for putting stuff under
the tree.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Yeah, okay, I'm going to talk more about this. We
talk back a little bit later on this morning. And
can I just say last night we had the family
together for the first time. We had chicken that was
cheapest chips, well it's cheaper than chips actually really an
a meso sauce and it was delicious. A little bit
of ice cream and some coffee of the cure and
it was a meal fit for the for a king
and fifteen bucks ago if you think about it, you
can do it. Can I ask you what's behind the
(03:11):
changes in the food prices?
Speaker 3 (03:13):
Look in particular with the meat, it's a supply and
demand issue where there's quite a lot of demand for
New Zealand beef or just beef in general across the
worlds for lamb as well, but it's not quite as
much of it. Over in one of the biggest markets
in the US, they've got the lowest beef stock numbers
in about fifty years. So they want to be eating beef,
but they just don't have the animals available. Even here
(03:35):
in New Zealand, we've seen a four percent decrease in
the volume of beef and lamb killed over the last
twelve months, and so again it's just a little bit
of a change around in that supply demand dynamic. Whereas
the likes of you know, chicken in pork, there's still
enough of it around, Demands still healthy, but it's sort
of you haven't seen those animal numbers come back quite
as much.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
What about retail, what's the trends with retail.
Speaker 3 (03:59):
Well, it really depends on exactly what's being spent on.
We had some worldline data out earlier this week for
the first three weeks of December, showing that spending on
the likes of food and look like we've just been
talking about, you know, going to the supermarket getting your food,
that spending remains well above last year's levels each and
every week, but spending on core retail has been a
(04:21):
little bit more subdued. So going out and next you're
doing that present shop, people are obviously, you know, putting
the money towards the food and putting less on the presents.
But it's also interesting it depends on what you're buying.
You know, people aren't spending quite as much on the
likes of you know, chocolate and other options because they've
gone up in priced quite a bit more. There's still
a lot of deals though that you're starting to see
(04:41):
coming through, for the likes of you know, toys and
outdoor equipment and the likes I mean. I saw Brisco
as the start of their their Boxing Day sale, you know,
quite a few days before Boxing Day, which sort of
suggests that, look, there are businesses out there they haven't
had as good of sales as they would have liked
through the year. They're really trying to sort of provide
a reason for people to get out and spend, and
(05:02):
of course households are looking for sort of as good
of a discount, as good of a sort of sale
as possible, so that it is trying to sort of
tempt people to spend a bit more by offering those
slightly cheaper options.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
I've had a text while you were talking from a
fellow who says, according to those stats you mentioned, New
Zealanders have spent three point two billion dollars this December.
He did some maths and reckons that's four hundred and
twenty million dollars in GSC which is going to go
to the government. That's a lot of money for the
government which they could use in paying down the debt.
So that's true. This is why the government wants you
(05:33):
to get out there and actually start spending, because they
would like more money.
Speaker 3 (05:38):
Well exactly. And of course if you've got that more
spending going through the economy, then all our s being equal,
you're going to start to see some better demand from
the businesses. They'll probably be making some more profits, so
there'll be more tax to the government, and they might
employ some more people who will then pay the paye,
which is more tax. Again. So again as we start
to see those interest rates come down as you know,
people start to feel a little bit more positive about
(06:00):
the economy. We do expect that spending to pick up,
but look at Christmas time, it's always the sort of
biggest spend up time of the year. Around about midday
today will be the sort of peak time for spending.
You know, people will be out in force. I'm hoping
to stay well away from the shops given the chaos
that I saw yesterday here and praying to day. But look,
you know, all the best to those who are going
(06:20):
out and spending. The economy certainly salutes you for it,
but you know, be kind in the crowds because there
seems to be a lot of chaos out there.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
Merry Christmas to you, Brand Allison. Thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
For more from News Talk sed B. Listen live on
air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever
you go with our podcast on iHeartRadio.
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