Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
If you were on my listener trip to Washington, DC,
you would have met my guest in person. Dan Hoffman,
is a former multi location CIA station chief, including Moscow,
and I think the best person anybody could talk to
about what's going on in and near Russia, perhaps in
(00:22):
the mind of Putin and people who surround Putin and
so on. Dan, thanks for making time for us. I
know you're a very busy guy. I really appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Well, happy to do it, Ross.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
So let's let's there's so many different aspects.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
I want to start with Trump and Putin. You obviously
pay attention to this stuff every day. Just a week ago,
Trump was on a phone call with Putin and he
seemed to be doing the same old stuff of kind
of playing nice with Putin and saying I get along
with him.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
Well, within just.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
A couple of days they were going going back and
forth at each other. And now yesterday Trump gave something
like a what appears to be a two week deadline,
but we don't know to what.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
So tell us what you think of all this.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Well, look, President Trump sit on the campaign trail that
he would end the war in a day, and so
Putin heard that and Putin also knows that President Trump
has talked about trying to engage Russia commercially and enticing
Putin to the negotiating table with the promise of some
(01:25):
commercial deals that might be a benefit to both countries.
And Putin is hearing that as well. And so one
of the things that I've been emphasizing all along is
that it's important for us to see the world through
the eyes of Putin. That's what I did at CIA
for decades. It's also important to see ourselves through Putin's eyes.
And what Putin I think is seeing right now. Look
this war is I don't see any indication there's anything
(01:48):
we can do to get him to stop fighting in Ukraine.
He invaded Ukraine and his strategic goal was to topple
the government, and I haven't seen any indication that he's
going to let up now. We haven't tried using all
the leverage we have, specifically secondary sanctions and more weapons
to Ukraine. And remember the Vibe administration failed to give
(02:10):
Ukraine what they needed when they needed that failed to
deter the war in the first place. But that's going
to be the question for the Trump administration and for
President Trump to ask his dress or of CIA John Ratcliffe.
Is Putin ever going to be interested in making a deal,
And if so, what do we need to do about it?
That's the hard one. Ross. Vladimir Putin is a KGB
(02:32):
guy and he hates the United States of America. We
are Russia's main enemy, that's what they call us. So
he doesn't want to see President Trump succeed on the
world stage, doesn't want the United States to look like
the strong superpower that we are in the world stage.
And there's the challenge that we face. Right.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
I actually laughed, I literally laughed out loud when I
heard Trump say, I don't know what's happened to this guy?
He's changed, right, I mean there's I don't think Putin
has changed since, not only while he's been in politics,
but as you say, he's an old school KGB.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
What was his highest rank, colonel?
Speaker 1 (03:08):
Maybe I don't think the dude has ever.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
Changed, right, That's it.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Look, he came to power and immediately launched a brutal
war on Czechnia, and there were all sorts of questions
about the origin of that war and buildings that came down.
Was it the FSB that did it? There wasn't any
definitive evidence that the FSB was responsible for the explosions
in a number of buildings that couldn't used as a
(03:35):
pretext to launch a war on Chechnya which violated massive
human rights. But then he went on to invade Georgia
and still holds Georgian territory, a massive cyber attack on
a Stonia taken down a Malaysian airliner using a band
chemical nerve agent novichok to try to kill a former defector,
killing a defector with a with polonium two ten turned
(03:56):
him into a know a human dirty bomb in the
streets of London. And then of course invading Ukraine illegally
annexing Crimea in twenty fourteen, and then this war, which
is what has been responsible for hundreds of thousands of casualties,
and it's been a complete failure for him. He's not winning.
Finland and Sweden are NAO members, has been a brain
drain of a million or so Russians that have fled
(04:18):
the country, and Ukraine has cut his army down the sides.
It didn't look too good and his own military and
zone intelligence officers know it all right, So war and
he almost can't. He can't get out of it. If
he does, it's just grave risk to his regime security.
I think that's probably all that matters to him.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
Frankly, all right, we've got three or four minutes left.
Speaker 1 (04:40):
I'm going to reassign you from from CIA to National
Security Council. You are now national Security Advisor. President Trump
comes to you and says, what should I do that
might have some actual effect in terms of leveraging Putin
to stop the fight.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
Well, President Trump gave Putin another two weeks, and I
just don't think there's going to be That's what Putin
wants to do. He wants to play for time, and
I would have this has got to be it. So
you know, they can meet. Now US national security officials
can meet and decide what we're going to do. But
it's got to be secondary sanctions and the President can
(05:21):
authorize those, and it'll take some time in the Congress,
but it'll deliver that message to Putin that we're serious
about hurting him and hurting his economy. And then we
should just deliver to Ukraine what they need, let them
pay for it. Europeans will pay for it and give
them more weapons, so that they can defend themselves from
(05:41):
a future Russian attack, not just stop this one. But
I am sorry to say, and I didn't ever serve
with the National Security Council. You used to just telling
leadership what they need to know, and especially when it's
not what they want to hear. I don't know that
this is war is going to end until unless Latimer
Putin is out of the Kremlin. That's just probably the
way it is. So you need to deter him or
(06:03):
to defend yourself at the point of attack, and that's
what it's going to take. It's a long haul.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
I couldn't agree with you more, especially on the weapons.
And we did see the story that Germany said they
were going to help Ukraine develop their own Ukrainian missiles,
long range missiles that will since they'll be Ukrainian, will
not have the Western imposed restrictions on targets and distances
that they can shoot these things, so that.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
Would be good. I'm a little a little hesitant on the.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
Secondary sanctions because I just don't think they're going to work.
And I think one of the big ones if we're
going to talk about sanctioning people buying Russian oil, would
be India and I don't think the US wants to
get into that with India. And I actually don't think
Trump wants to get into more of a fight with
China either. So I just I don't know about the sanctions, man.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
Yeah, well, I think you blame those on the guy
who's responsible. That's Vladimir Putin. Yeah, and I'm not sure
there's another answer here. India happens to be Ussia's ally. Well, okay,
then figure it out and find some other way. But
you can't be allied with a country that has invaded
its sovereign neighbor and tried to change the border by force.
(07:15):
That's what was supposed to end at the end of
the Second World War, and no surprise, this is the
most devastating land war since then. So I'm sorry. That's
the world. The policy is all about making the best
decision among a bunch of bad ones. Yeah, and that's
the challenge we face, man. I mean, we'll be on
talking about this in a few more months and we'll
(07:36):
see where we're at.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
Then we got about forty five seconds left. I saw
a really interesting piece over at the Wall Street Journal.
I don't remember if I sent it to you, but
it's about US marines showing up on a Swedish island
called Gutland. And I'm sure you're well aware of this
Baltic Sea, and it seems like we are fortifying NATO's
north against potential Russian aggression or just to show Russia
(07:59):
that we're paying What do you think about this?
Speaker 2 (08:03):
Well, this is where you know, we've got to collect
intelligence on the threat and then be prepared to do
something about it. And Russia has been mounting all sorts
of hybrid operations in that part of the world. So
it's it's a case where we got to work really
closely with our allies and beyond on alert to detect
(08:24):
these in these operations and do something about it. Again,
he's this is what he does. He mounts, you know,
cloak and dag or espionage operations, what he's been doing
his whole life, and he's not going to stop.
Speaker 1 (08:35):
That's part of why your previous career must have been
one of the most interesting jobs ever.
Speaker 3 (08:40):
And I wish you could talk about it more, but
I know better than to ask.
Speaker 1 (08:43):
Dan Hoffman, former CIA station chief and multiple locations including Moscow.
Thanks so much for your time and your expertise. Dan,
and we'll talk again soon, all right, Take care,
If you were on my listener trip to Washington, DC,
you would have met my guest in person. Dan Hoffman,
is a former multi location CIA station chief, including Moscow,
and I think the best person anybody could talk to
about what's going on in and near Russia, perhaps in
(00:22):
the mind of Putin and people who surround Putin and
so on. Dan, thanks for making time for us. I
know you're a very busy guy. I really appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Well, happy to do it, Ross.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
So let's let's there's so many different aspects.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
I want to start with Trump and Putin. You obviously
pay attention to this stuff every day. Just a week ago,
Trump was on a phone call with Putin and he
seemed to be doing the same old stuff of kind
of playing nice with Putin and saying I get along
with him.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
Well, within just.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
A couple of days they were going going back and
forth at each other. And now yesterday Trump gave something
like a what appears to be a two week deadline,
but we don't know to what.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
So tell us what you think of all this.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Well, look, President Trump sit on the campaign trail that
he would end the war in a day, and so
Putin heard that and Putin also knows that President Trump
has talked about trying to engage Russia commercially and enticing
Putin to the negotiating table with the promise of some
(01:25):
commercial deals that might be a benefit to both countries.
And Putin is hearing that as well. And so one
of the things that I've been emphasizing all along is
that it's important for us to see the world through
the eyes of Putin. That's what I did at CIA
for decades. It's also important to see ourselves through Putin's eyes.
And what Putin I think is seeing right now. Look
this war is I don't see any indication there's anything
(01:48):
we can do to get him to stop fighting in Ukraine.
He invaded Ukraine and his strategic goal was to topple
the government, and I haven't seen any indication that he's
going to let up now. We haven't tried using all
the leverage we have, specifically secondary sanctions and more weapons
to Ukraine. And remember the Vibe administration failed to give
(02:10):
Ukraine what they needed when they needed that failed to
deter the war in the first place. But that's going
to be the question for the Trump administration and for
President Trump to ask his dress or of CIA John Ratcliffe.
Is Putin ever going to be interested in making a deal,
And if so, what do we need to do about it?
That's the hard one. Ross. Vladimir Putin is a KGB
(02:32):
guy and he hates the United States of America. We
are Russia's main enemy, that's what they call us. So
he doesn't want to see President Trump succeed on the
world stage, doesn't want the United States to look like
the strong superpower that we are in the world stage.
And there's the challenge that we face. Right.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
I actually laughed, I literally laughed out loud when I
heard Trump say, I don't know what's happened to this guy?
He's changed, right, I mean there's I don't think Putin
has changed since, not only while he's been in politics,
but as you say, he's an old school KGB.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
What was his highest rank, colonel?
Speaker 1 (03:08):
Maybe I don't think the dude has ever.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
Changed, right, That's it.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Look, he came to power and immediately launched a brutal
war on Czechnia, and there were all sorts of questions
about the origin of that war and buildings that came down.
Was it the FSB that did it? There wasn't any
definitive evidence that the FSB was responsible for the explosions
in a number of buildings that couldn't used as a
(03:35):
pretext to launch a war on Chechnya which violated massive
human rights. But then he went on to invade Georgia
and still holds Georgian territory, a massive cyber attack on
a Stonia taken down a Malaysian airliner using a band
chemical nerve agent novichok to try to kill a former defector,
killing a defector with a with polonium two ten turned
(03:56):
him into a know a human dirty bomb in the
streets of London. And then of course invading Ukraine illegally
annexing Crimea in twenty fourteen, and then this war, which
is what has been responsible for hundreds of thousands of casualties,
and it's been a complete failure for him. He's not winning.
Finland and Sweden are NAO members, has been a brain
drain of a million or so Russians that have fled
(04:18):
the country, and Ukraine has cut his army down the sides.
It didn't look too good and his own military and
zone intelligence officers know it all right, So war and
he almost can't. He can't get out of it. If
he does, it's just grave risk to his regime security.
I think that's probably all that matters to him.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
Frankly, all right, we've got three or four minutes left.
Speaker 1 (04:40):
I'm going to reassign you from from CIA to National
Security Council. You are now national Security Advisor. President Trump
comes to you and says, what should I do that
might have some actual effect in terms of leveraging Putin
to stop the fight.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
Well, President Trump gave Putin another two weeks, and I
just don't think there's going to be That's what Putin
wants to do. He wants to play for time, and
I would have this has got to be it. So
you know, they can meet. Now US national security officials
can meet and decide what we're going to do. But
it's got to be secondary sanctions and the President can
(05:21):
authorize those, and it'll take some time in the Congress,
but it'll deliver that message to Putin that we're serious
about hurting him and hurting his economy. And then we
should just deliver to Ukraine what they need, let them
pay for it. Europeans will pay for it and give
them more weapons, so that they can defend themselves from
(05:41):
a future Russian attack, not just stop this one. But
I am sorry to say, and I didn't ever serve
with the National Security Council. You used to just telling
leadership what they need to know, and especially when it's
not what they want to hear. I don't know that
this is war is going to end until unless Latimer
Putin is out of the Kremlin. That's just probably the
way it is. So you need to deter him or
(06:03):
to defend yourself at the point of attack, and that's
what it's going to take. It's a long haul.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
I couldn't agree with you more, especially on the weapons.
And we did see the story that Germany said they
were going to help Ukraine develop their own Ukrainian missiles,
long range missiles that will since they'll be Ukrainian, will
not have the Western imposed restrictions on targets and distances
that they can shoot these things, so that.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
Would be good. I'm a little a little hesitant on the.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
Secondary sanctions because I just don't think they're going to work.
And I think one of the big ones if we're
going to talk about sanctioning people buying Russian oil, would
be India and I don't think the US wants to
get into that with India. And I actually don't think
Trump wants to get into more of a fight with
China either. So I just I don't know about the sanctions, man.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
Yeah, well, I think you blame those on the guy
who's responsible. That's Vladimir Putin. Yeah, and I'm not sure
there's another answer here. India happens to be Ussia's ally. Well, okay,
then figure it out and find some other way. But
you can't be allied with a country that has invaded
its sovereign neighbor and tried to change the border by force.
(07:15):
That's what was supposed to end at the end of
the Second World War, and no surprise, this is the
most devastating land war since then. So I'm sorry. That's
the world. The policy is all about making the best
decision among a bunch of bad ones. Yeah, and that's
the challenge we face, man. I mean, we'll be on
talking about this in a few more months and we'll
(07:36):
see where we're at.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
Then we got about forty five seconds left. I saw
a really interesting piece over at the Wall Street Journal.
I don't remember if I sent it to you, but
it's about US marines showing up on a Swedish island
called Gutland. And I'm sure you're well aware of this
Baltic Sea, and it seems like we are fortifying NATO's
north against potential Russian aggression or just to show Russia
(07:59):
that we're paying What do you think about this?
Speaker 2 (08:03):
Well, this is where you know, we've got to collect
intelligence on the threat and then be prepared to do
something about it. And Russia has been mounting all sorts
of hybrid operations in that part of the world. So
it's it's a case where we got to work really
closely with our allies and beyond on alert to detect
(08:24):
these in these operations and do something about it. Again,
he's this is what he does. He mounts, you know,
cloak and dag or espionage operations, what he's been doing
his whole life, and he's not going to stop.
Speaker 1 (08:35):
That's part of why your previous career must have been
one of the most interesting jobs ever.
Speaker 3 (08:40):
And I wish you could talk about it more, but
I know better than to ask.
Speaker 1 (08:43):
Dan Hoffman, former CIA station chief and multiple locations including Moscow.
Thanks so much for your time and your expertise. Dan,
and we'll talk again soon, all right, Take care,
The Ross Kaminsky Show News
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