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May 7, 2025 • 16 mins
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
You know, if you've been listening to me for some time,
that my major in college was basically foreign policy, and
that I probably follow international stuff a lot more, not
just a little more, a lot more than your average
local talk show host in America. And I think you
probably also know that I've been to India three times,

(00:22):
I haven't been to Pakistan, and a couple of weeks ago,
when some terrorists from Pakistan came in and machine gunned
a bunch of tourists at a hotel in India controlled Kashmir,
India responded by saying, we're going to cut off some
water from a river that you need for farming, in

(00:42):
particular in Pakistan. I don't think they've done it yet,
but they threatened it. And we'll talk in a minute
about what's happened in the last twenty four hours. But
I said to you on the show, I said, look,
I know I'm early on this, but I understand this
situation a little bit because I've been studying this for
a long time, and this has the potential I'm not
saying it will or it has the potential to be

(01:05):
the most dangerous situation in the world, more much more
than Israel versus Gaza, and more than Ukraine versus Russia,
depending on how it goes. But I only know enough
to be dangerous and not enough to be helpful. So
joining us to actually be helpful is Dbakdas And Dbak

(01:26):
is a assistant professor at the Corbel School of International
Studies at the University of Denver, where he studies peace
and national security and has a particular expertise in this
part of the world. So, Dbak, thank you for doing this,
especially on such short notice. I just reached out to
you last night, so I appreciate it.

Speaker 2 (01:45):
Thank you so much for having me us.

Speaker 1 (01:47):
But before we so, I want to get into this
in a somewhat nerdy way with you, like a little
bit in depth. Okay, So before we talk about just
what happened yesterday, just give us one or two minutes
on the history oracle context of this situation around Kashmir.

Speaker 2 (02:04):
Thanks for us.

Speaker 3 (02:05):
Yeah, So, in terms of a historical sort of quick backgrounder,
I think what we need to know is that Kashmir
is an area which India and Pakistan both claim is theirs.
And this really goes back to nineteen forty seven, which
is when we had a partition in India and Pakistan,
and Kashmir was an independent prinsivy state and it was

(02:31):
asked by both India and Pakistan to join. The thing
is it had a Hindu king but a Muslim majority population.
As things turns out, both the king Hari Singh didn't
actually join India or Pakistan immediately. And as Indian Pakistan
Wan becomes states, Pakistan then invades Kashmir, Hari Singh reaches

(02:54):
out to the Indian Prime minister and asks for help
and in return, Harri saying signs what we call the
instrument of accession joining India.

Speaker 2 (03:03):
Now this was then later on went to the UN.

Speaker 3 (03:06):
Pakistan doesn't recognize that that this instrument of accession was signed.
And and we've we've had this territorial dispute between Indian
and Pakistan ever since.

Speaker 1 (03:18):
Who was the Indian Prime minister at the time of
that document.

Speaker 3 (03:22):
Indian Prime minister was Joel Al Nahru, who was the
first Indian Prime minister.

Speaker 1 (03:26):
Yeah, and that's that's right, and obviously a hugely important
person in Indian history. I figured it might be might
be him. So all right, so how about from then
till now? Again, it's sort of a broad question. I
don't mean every little thing that's happened, but would you
say there's been kind of a consistent level of disagreement

(03:49):
and tension and whatever. Has it ever been really calm?
Has there ever really been agreement? And maybe you can
also add, actually how close has it do you feel
like these two countries have come to war over Kashmir
before the current situation?

Speaker 3 (04:05):
Right, So we've had a number of wars over Kashmir already. Right,
So nineteen forty seven, forty eight, this initial break when
I was talking about that was the first India Pakistan war,
right as both countries were essentially born, right as soon
as British colonialism was sort of thrown away. And you know,

(04:25):
let's let's give our hat tip to the British for
having left us with this problem to begin with. But so,
so ninety seven ninety.

Speaker 2 (04:35):
Forty eight is the first war.

Speaker 3 (04:36):
Nineteen sixty five is the second India Pakistan war that
happens directly over Kashmir. Nineteen seventy one is the third
war between India and Pakistan. Doesn't happen over Kashmir, happens
over the creation of Bangladesh. So East being East Pakistan
becomes Bangladesh, and.

Speaker 2 (04:53):
Then nineteen ninety nine is the.

Speaker 3 (04:55):
Kargil War, which is also over Kashmir, over the Kargil
region of Kashmir between.

Speaker 2 (05:00):
Indian and Pakistan.

Speaker 3 (05:01):
Since nineteen ninety nine we haven't had a war, but
since nineteen seventy one, where Indian and Pakistani forces meet
is this line called the line of control, and you know,
we have firings over the line of control very regularly.

Speaker 2 (05:18):
There is a.

Speaker 3 (05:19):
Ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan which gets broken very regularly.
And the other thing is, you know, has it been peaceful?
There are times that it has in fact been peaceful
in despite these wars.

Speaker 1 (05:35):
Right.

Speaker 2 (05:36):
So, for example, the problem.

Speaker 3 (05:38):
Of terrorism that that really is what's part of the
most recent crisis is not one that we talked about
in the nineteen sixties or seventies. It really starts towards
the end of the eighties and the nineties are sort
of the a day of terrorist activity in Kashmir, which

(05:58):
is in many ways aided and abetted by the Pakistani military,
and you see a lot more civilian casualties starting to
take place because of essentially indiscriminate acts of terror.

Speaker 1 (06:12):
Is the population of Kashmir still a Muslim majority it.

Speaker 2 (06:19):
Is, yes.

Speaker 3 (06:20):
So if you think of the state of Jummu and Kashmir,
Kashmir is the valley and slightly higher up, so it's
a smaller population, but it is a Muslim majority population.
If you think of Jumu, it is a Hindu majority population.
It is no longer a stake I should I should say.
In twenty nineteen, the Indian Parliament passed an act which

(06:44):
basically turned Jammu and Kashmir into a what we call
a union territory, which means that it is now directly
under the governance of the Indian government in New Delhi.

Speaker 1 (06:58):
If there were a vote of the people in Kashmir,
would they vote to be part of India or vote
to be part of Pakistan.

Speaker 2 (07:04):
That's a difficult question.

Speaker 3 (07:07):
It's a difficult question because I think Kashmiris might say.

Speaker 2 (07:11):
That they want to be independent. There is a strong
set of folks who might say we want to be
with Indian because.

Speaker 3 (07:21):
And independent Kashmir would have India, Pakistan and China on
their borders, three nuclear countries. And you know, there'll be
some who who might say, you know, we want to
be with Pakistan. It's difficult to predict how that would go.
But I do not think a majority of the Shmiris

(07:43):
would necessarily say as Pakistan claims that they want to
be with Pakistan.

Speaker 2 (07:50):
I think that is not correct.

Speaker 1 (07:52):
We're talking with dbak Das from the University of Denver,
from the Korbel School of International Studies there. All right,
so now let's talk about what happened in the last
few days and the current situation, and maybe you can
just sort of describe what happened over the Just give us,
like a globalie, a quick summary of what happened in

(08:14):
the last few days.

Speaker 3 (08:15):
So on the very second of April, we had a
terrorist attack on the Indian side of Kashmir at a
place called Pehelgam and twenty six civilians were killed. This
was one of those attacks where the terrorists sought out
civilians and they killed them fairly discriminately, which was very

(08:38):
which was new. Later on, after the event took place,
a group called the Resistance Front, which is a part
of the Lush Curry Taiba terrorist outfit, claimed responsibility. Now
this is essentially since two thousand and eight, when the

(08:59):
Mumbai Tax took place on India. On India in Mumbai
on civilians. This is probably the most brazen terrorist attack
that we've seen which directly target civilians. So in response,
India first put in abeyance the Indus Water Treaty, something
that you mentioned a little earlier, and the idea there

(09:22):
was essentially that you know, you're the main river that
flows through Pakistan actually as its origin in the Himalayas,
flows through India first, and it's India saying, you know,
we recognize that military options are not our only options,
that we have a broader set of things in our

(09:44):
tool kit to be able to respond to terrorist action
on the Indian side of the bottom. So that was
number one, and then of course May seventh, essentially we
found out yesterday that India launched something called Operation Shindhu,

(10:04):
which was a reference the term Sindur is vermillion that
Hindu women put on their head as a mark that
they are married. This was a sort of reference to
the fact that these men who were husbands of these
Hindu women were killed. So it was very concerted in

(10:26):
that sense. Operations Sindur basically had nine targets in Pakistan,
four in Pakulin directly Pakistan, and the rest were on
the Pakistani side of Kashmir, and it was conducted within
half an hour span between one am and one thirty am.
No military establishments for target it targeted. The Indian government

(10:51):
essentially said that it had targeted bases an infrastructure of
the terrorist groups that were off rating on the Pakistani
side of the bottom.

Speaker 1 (11:03):
Pakistan claimed to have shot down at least five Indian
aircraft and a drone, of which three would be a
fairly advanced French fighter jet.

Speaker 2 (11:14):
Do you think that's true.

Speaker 3 (11:19):
We don't have any evidence about that. For US in general,
if a plane has been shot down, a few things
are reported right away. First is the debrie tends to
be scattered around a large area. And the second thing

(11:40):
is that there is some form of acknowledgement that there's
been an engagement and some sort of casualties from the
site that has lost the plane or a pilot potentially.

Speaker 2 (11:52):
We have not had that from India.

Speaker 3 (11:54):
We have not had any reporting that shows evidence that
they have been played shot down. That said, could we
find out in a couple of days potentially, but right
now it sounds more to be rhetoric than based in fact.

Speaker 1 (12:16):
All Right, two last questions, what are the odds that
the ISI knew about this attack. The ISI, for listeners,
being the Pakistani intelligence service that is much too cozy
and has been for many years with terrorist groups. They
really play both sides all the time.

Speaker 2 (12:32):
I think odds are fairly high.

Speaker 3 (12:35):
There has ben and you might see this in social
media as well. Right after the attack took place in Pahlgam,
you saw that a number of clips of the Pakistani
Army Chief as Monair has been doing the rounds and

(12:55):
he seems to be the new Pakistani Army Chief seems
to be very intersted in having some sort of role
to play on Kashmir, something that he thinks potentially that
the Pakistani civilian government has not done enough off now
as a result, he did right before the attack in

(13:16):
Pelgramtic took place, he did say that Kashmir is Pakistan's
jugular vein, somehow connecting Pakistan and Kashmir into one entity.

Speaker 2 (13:26):
And saying, you know, this is our lifeline and.

Speaker 3 (13:28):
Our lifelood, which seemed like you would think an odd
thing to say, but in the context of what's been
going on, perhaps not so odd. So is it possible
to short to answer your question ensure that the Pakistani
I SI and the Army knew about this. I think
it's very possible that the Pakistani army and the ISI

(13:48):
knew about this.

Speaker 2 (13:50):
Was it directed by them? We are not sure. We
don't have evidence of that yet.

Speaker 1 (13:56):
Okay, I got about a minute and a half left here,
So what now?

Speaker 3 (14:00):
I think that given past trends, we might expect some
form of retaliation from Pakistan. I think that the way
that India conducted these attacks in Pakistan and the Pakistani
side of Kashmir have room for some off ramps. So
no military infrastructure was targeted, for example, which means that

(14:23):
to Pakistani it gives the Pakistani army and the Defense
ministry a chance to say, look, our army was not attacked.
Right now, that said, Pakistan's government has already sort of said, well,
this is an act of war, which means that it's
keeping all its options open at this point in time.

(14:45):
Could it retaliate with a similar sort of air strike
or missile.

Speaker 2 (14:50):
Strike on the Indian side?

Speaker 3 (14:52):
I think the answer is yes, it could, but if
it did, it would also be met with a retaliatory
side from India. So this is kind of that point
to us where I would say it's Uh, it really
is up to the Pakistani government. They could choose to
take the off ramp and say, well, well it we

(15:13):
call it a freeze here and we follow up with
other sort of rhetorical as well as diplomatic action, but
we don't take military action. But the chance of military
action is pretty high at the moment. Not to worry you,
but that I.

Speaker 1 (15:30):
Mean, they they they shouldn't right. Pakistanis I'm not saying
the government, but pakistanis started it. India retaliated against against
terrorist targets, they say, and it's not possible for Pakistan
to retaliate military to retaliate against India militarily without either

(15:51):
attacking India's military infrastructure, which would be a very bad move,
or attacking Indian civilians, which would be a very bad move.
What else are they going to target, like a shopping
center at night when nobody's in it. What's the point
they If they're smart, they're going to take an off ramp.
But emotions are very high. So so we'll see dbactas

(16:12):
from University of Denver. Thank you so much for making
time for us again, especially on short notice. I really
appreciate it. We'll we'll keep in touch as this situation develops.

Speaker 2 (16:22):
Thanks for having me us very glad to

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