June 16, 2025 • 8 mins
Kurt Cambier of Centennial Capital Partners joins the show for a discussion about the potential impact of the Iran/Israel war on global markets and the economy and about why the market has been so remarkably resilient in the past month or so. Is the TACO trade real?
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
I'm very pleased to bring back to the show my
good friend and a dad himself, Kurt Cambier, proprietor of
Centennial Capital Partners. Listeners keep asking me when's Kurt coming back.
We're working on that. And a listener asked me specifically yesterday, Hey,
could you get Kurt on to talk about what he
thinks about any potential impact from the Israel Iran War?
(00:20):
And I thought that sounds like a fine idea. So
here he is, the man himself, Kurt Cambier. Hi, Kurt, Hi.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Ron was Father's Day.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
It was uneventful as I expected, probably not as good
as yours.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Oh that was yours, so that was good as well.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Yeah, all right, So I've got two major topics I
want to talk with you about.
Speaker 3 (00:43):
One is the Israel Iran War.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
The stock market had a fairly bad day on Friday,
but not disastrously bad, and it's recovered half of it
already today. Oil was up quite a bit when the
when the shooting started. It's down a couple dollars today,
So in the middle kind of of a recent range
and it almost seems like a bit of a yawn.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
How are you looking at this?
Speaker 2 (01:08):
Yeah, it's a nothing burger. Obviously, if you're in Iran
or in Israel. It's a pretty major event that I'm
at market wise, because that's not the nineteen eighties anymore.
The United States produces about thirteen million barrels of oil
itself and can produce them more very quickly. We made
friends with Saudi Arabia. That was a good move on
(01:31):
down Trump's part, and they can certainly provide that. That's
why I'm thinking this might have been set up that way.
I'll provide that access oil that's going to be needed.
And you know, the Sunni Shia thing between the Saudi's
and Iran is actually bigger than the Arab Jewish thing
as far as the negativity is a battle. So I
(01:52):
don't think it's going to be much of a deal
at all. I think it doesn't hurt us economically, it
doesn't hurt the world economically. Most of Iranians one million
barrels a day are sold to China, and China's already
and kind of a tough spot. So I think it's
a nothing factor.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
Yeah, I think that.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
I think the only thing that might make it a
not and nothing burger, and I don't expect this to happen,
would be is if Israel attacked to the heart of
Iran's oil infrastructure, and I realized, as you said, they
don't produce nearly what they used to. But oil is
one of these things where if supply goes down even
a little, prices can go up a lot. But it
(02:31):
seems I don't think Israel will do that because I
think Trump has probably warned them against that because he
hates high oil prices.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
Yeah, I think that's exactly corrected. I think we're going
to go after the Supreme Leader to put the brakes
on him. And he made friends with Israel too, which
are the last administration made enemies with Israel and made
enemies with Saudi Arabia. So I think this is, in
my opinion, planned all along.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
Okay, let me switch gears with you a little bit.
Speaker 1 (02:58):
So, as you know, either late March or early April,
I suspected that Donald Trump was gonna go crazy on
trade and do some stuff that was going to hurt
the market a lot, and I and I sold quite
a bit of stuff, and I was absolutely right about that,
but then I was wrong after that. I did not
see the market turning around to be as resilient as
(03:20):
it has been. I think you did see that, and
so I would like to know to what you attribute
the remarkable market resilience, including today. I mean, there still
is a shooting war going on in the Middle East,
and you know the Dow between Friday and today is
down less than four hundred points right now, which is,
you know, nothing, it's nothing really, So to what do
(03:43):
you attribute the resilience of the market. Do you think
it's a fundamental statement about the economy. Do you think
it's more about how much the incredible amount of liquidity
on the sidelines some combination.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
I do think it's a combination. I think the first
thing is a liquidity everybody's like and to buy the dips,
especially the retail investor. And so there's so much trillions
and trillions of cash on the sidelines, and that's still
come out of a hangover from COVID, and that is
going to drive the market. Any dip is not going
to last very long. The other thing is is the
market's actually undervalued. And what I mean by that if
(04:19):
you go back from nineteen ninety five, we changed from
an industrial economy to a technology economy. The technology economy
changes the fuller PE ratios, so the pas get to
twenty one, which previous nineteen ninety five would be bubblicious
territory and a correction. Well, since nineteen ninety five, a
twenty one PE is a bottom ten percent. The average
(04:41):
is twenty seven and a half. It's taking ninety five
and Bubblicious is actually a thirty six and it's burned
the little twenties right now, which means it to buy
an opportunity based upon the profitability that is available and
what that is all about. Sell a report last week
from artificial intelligence, which is a real and it's really
(05:01):
early in the game yet that the average engineer is
six times or more productive using artificial intelligence than it
were even three years ago. So profitability of companies will
drive the market, you know, all right, let.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
Me let me switch gears with you for a second.
Just follow up on the AI thing. I'm very interested
in how the AI, how it's going to play out.
It's inevitable that it's going to massively change just so
many things in terms of in terms of its disruption
of how businesses operate, and just so listeners understand, disruption
(05:37):
is not necessarily a bad thing. It sounds like a
negative word, but I don't mean it that way. It's
a I use it as a non judgmental word. But Kurt,
in terms of the potential for AI to disrupt how
businesses operate, I think it's potentially potentially the biggest disruption
of all time, where you know, at least since the
advent of electricity or something, and bigger than the Internet,
(05:58):
probably bigger than the Internet at itself. But the other thing, Kurt,
then what I really want you to focus on is
this disruption might occur much more rapidly than any prior
massive disruption to employment in the United States.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
How do you think about that?
Speaker 1 (06:16):
And what do you see as the upsides and downsides
of that?
Speaker 3 (06:19):
If you agree with me, maybe you don't.
Speaker 2 (06:22):
No, I agree that a hundred percent. It's something called
creative destruction. I mean, I remember these days in the
nineteen nineties when before the Internet, when I do a lunch,
we did before phones for an answered service is back
back now, you know. But what's happened is the pp
PRAI profitability for hour ratio is accelerated at a record level.
(06:46):
And in fact, it's not a V shape. It's a
spaceship SpaceX rocket going to the moon, and so when
they when that profitability increases like that, that does disrupt
the economy. But there's good disruptions and bad disruption. To
this is a disruption. This is an inflection point. This
is a point where a country with the number one
lead by far, not even close to anybody else, the
(07:08):
United States, is going to have a glorious time period
and going forward it's not a green light every day,
not sunshine and remotes every day, but a really big
growth area. And I think we're going to see that
from artificial intelligence, and I think the United States is
going to capture a lot of business and I think
it's going to be an incredible time period to be
an investor. The difference behind a little bit of a
(07:30):
few things. I mean, they may start cutting interest rates,
are way behind on that, and that'll help housing, which
twenty six could be an unbelievable house here. But so
those are the things that I think are taking place
in that creative destruction and that the disruptive nature of
the market on a positive basis.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
Kurt Cambier is proprietor of Centennial Capital Partners. If you
don't have a financial planner in your life, or you do.
When you think you're not getting enough attention and you're
not getting the results you would respect, you might give
Kurt a call and sit down and have a conversation.
Costs you nothing to sit down and meet with him
and just see if it feels like it makes sense
(08:08):
to work together. You can get started at k kambeer
dot com, k C A, M, B I E R
dot com. Thanks for doing this, Kurt and all my
listeners hope we have you back on the show every
day sometime soon.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
We're working on it.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
I know we are. Thanks Kurt, Okay, you too.
I'm very pleased to bring back to the show my
good friend and a dad himself, Kurt Cambier, proprietor of
Centennial Capital Partners. Listeners keep asking me when's Kurt coming back.
We're working on that. And a listener asked me specifically yesterday, Hey,
could you get Kurt on to talk about what he
thinks about any potential impact from the Israel Iran War?
(00:20):
And I thought that sounds like a fine idea. So
here he is, the man himself, Kurt Cambier. Hi, Kurt, Hi.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Ron was Father's Day.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
It was uneventful as I expected, probably not as good
as yours.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Oh that was yours, so that was good as well.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Yeah, all right, So I've got two major topics I
want to talk with you about.
Speaker 3 (00:43):
One is the Israel Iran War.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
The stock market had a fairly bad day on Friday,
but not disastrously bad, and it's recovered half of it
already today. Oil was up quite a bit when the
when the shooting started. It's down a couple dollars today,
So in the middle kind of of a recent range
and it almost seems like a bit of a yawn.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
How are you looking at this?
Speaker 2 (01:08):
Yeah, it's a nothing burger. Obviously, if you're in Iran
or in Israel. It's a pretty major event that I'm
at market wise, because that's not the nineteen eighties anymore.
The United States produces about thirteen million barrels of oil
itself and can produce them more very quickly. We made
friends with Saudi Arabia. That was a good move on
(01:31):
down Trump's part, and they can certainly provide that. That's
why I'm thinking this might have been set up that way.
I'll provide that access oil that's going to be needed.
And you know, the Sunni Shia thing between the Saudi's
and Iran is actually bigger than the Arab Jewish thing
as far as the negativity is a battle. So I
(01:52):
don't think it's going to be much of a deal
at all. I think it doesn't hurt us economically, it
doesn't hurt the world economically. Most of Iranians one million
barrels a day are sold to China, and China's already
and kind of a tough spot. So I think it's
a nothing factor.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
Yeah, I think that.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
I think the only thing that might make it a
not and nothing burger, and I don't expect this to happen,
would be is if Israel attacked to the heart of
Iran's oil infrastructure, and I realized, as you said, they
don't produce nearly what they used to. But oil is
one of these things where if supply goes down even
a little, prices can go up a lot. But it
(02:31):
seems I don't think Israel will do that because I
think Trump has probably warned them against that because he
hates high oil prices.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
Yeah, I think that's exactly corrected. I think we're going
to go after the Supreme Leader to put the brakes
on him. And he made friends with Israel too, which
are the last administration made enemies with Israel and made
enemies with Saudi Arabia. So I think this is, in
my opinion, planned all along.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
Okay, let me switch gears with you a little bit.
Speaker 1 (02:58):
So, as you know, either late March or early April,
I suspected that Donald Trump was gonna go crazy on
trade and do some stuff that was going to hurt
the market a lot, and I and I sold quite
a bit of stuff, and I was absolutely right about that,
but then I was wrong after that. I did not
see the market turning around to be as resilient as
(03:20):
it has been. I think you did see that, and
so I would like to know to what you attribute
the remarkable market resilience, including today. I mean, there still
is a shooting war going on in the Middle East,
and you know the Dow between Friday and today is
down less than four hundred points right now, which is,
you know, nothing, it's nothing really, So to what do
(03:43):
you attribute the resilience of the market. Do you think
it's a fundamental statement about the economy. Do you think
it's more about how much the incredible amount of liquidity
on the sidelines some combination.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
I do think it's a combination. I think the first
thing is a liquidity everybody's like and to buy the dips,
especially the retail investor. And so there's so much trillions
and trillions of cash on the sidelines, and that's still
come out of a hangover from COVID, and that is
going to drive the market. Any dip is not going
to last very long. The other thing is is the
market's actually undervalued. And what I mean by that if
(04:19):
you go back from nineteen ninety five, we changed from
an industrial economy to a technology economy. The technology economy
changes the fuller PE ratios, so the pas get to
twenty one, which previous nineteen ninety five would be bubblicious
territory and a correction. Well, since nineteen ninety five, a
twenty one PE is a bottom ten percent. The average
(04:41):
is twenty seven and a half. It's taking ninety five
and Bubblicious is actually a thirty six and it's burned
the little twenties right now, which means it to buy
an opportunity based upon the profitability that is available and
what that is all about. Sell a report last week
from artificial intelligence, which is a real and it's really
(05:01):
early in the game yet that the average engineer is
six times or more productive using artificial intelligence than it
were even three years ago. So profitability of companies will
drive the market, you know, all right, let.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
Me let me switch gears with you for a second.
Just follow up on the AI thing. I'm very interested
in how the AI, how it's going to play out.
It's inevitable that it's going to massively change just so
many things in terms of in terms of its disruption
of how businesses operate, and just so listeners understand, disruption
(05:37):
is not necessarily a bad thing. It sounds like a
negative word, but I don't mean it that way. It's
a I use it as a non judgmental word. But Kurt,
in terms of the potential for AI to disrupt how
businesses operate, I think it's potentially potentially the biggest disruption
of all time, where you know, at least since the
advent of electricity or something, and bigger than the Internet,
(05:58):
probably bigger than the Internet at itself. But the other thing, Kurt,
then what I really want you to focus on is
this disruption might occur much more rapidly than any prior
massive disruption to employment in the United States.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
How do you think about that?
Speaker 1 (06:16):
And what do you see as the upsides and downsides
of that?
Speaker 3 (06:19):
If you agree with me, maybe you don't.
Speaker 2 (06:22):
No, I agree that a hundred percent. It's something called
creative destruction. I mean, I remember these days in the
nineteen nineties when before the Internet, when I do a lunch,
we did before phones for an answered service is back
back now, you know. But what's happened is the pp
PRAI profitability for hour ratio is accelerated at a record level.
(06:46):
And in fact, it's not a V shape. It's a
spaceship SpaceX rocket going to the moon, and so when
they when that profitability increases like that, that does disrupt
the economy. But there's good disruptions and bad disruption. To
this is a disruption. This is an inflection point. This
is a point where a country with the number one
lead by far, not even close to anybody else, the
(07:08):
United States, is going to have a glorious time period
and going forward it's not a green light every day,
not sunshine and remotes every day, but a really big
growth area. And I think we're going to see that
from artificial intelligence, and I think the United States is
going to capture a lot of business and I think
it's going to be an incredible time period to be
an investor. The difference behind a little bit of a
(07:30):
few things. I mean, they may start cutting interest rates,
are way behind on that, and that'll help housing, which
twenty six could be an unbelievable house here. But so
those are the things that I think are taking place
in that creative destruction and that the disruptive nature of
the market on a positive basis.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
Kurt Cambier is proprietor of Centennial Capital Partners. If you
don't have a financial planner in your life, or you do.
When you think you're not getting enough attention and you're
not getting the results you would respect, you might give
Kurt a call and sit down and have a conversation.
Costs you nothing to sit down and meet with him
and just see if it feels like it makes sense
(08:08):
to work together. You can get started at k kambeer
dot com, k C A, M, B I E R
dot com. Thanks for doing this, Kurt and all my
listeners hope we have you back on the show every
day sometime soon.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
We're working on it.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
I know we are. Thanks Kurt, Okay, you too.
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