July 17, 2025 • 13 mins
We'll talk about Denver's economic and population struggles, in something of a contrast to the sunny optimism we got from Mayor Johnston yesterday.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Kelly Cawfield, who is the executive director of the Common
Sense Institute, where I am proud to be the Mikey
Loprino Free Enterprise Fellow as well. You know, in my
work there, I focus well, they do most of the work,
but in my work there, I focus primarily on economic issues.
But Common Sense Institute puts out nonpartisan, deeply researched papers.
(00:24):
They're not really political arguments or you should do this
or that. It's more analysis and then here's some things
you might think about. But they do this an enormous
range of issues, right crime, healthcare, the economic stuff I'm
involved with. What we're going to talk with Kelly about
today is two different studies that have to do with
(00:46):
the intersection of demographics and economics in Denver and more
broadly in Colorado. So hey, Kelly, welcome back. It's good
to have you here.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
Thanks so much. Ross. I'm excited to dive into these reports.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
Let's start with the Colorade and this is from Cole
Anderson and doctor Caitlin McKenny and the headline Fewer Movers,
Bigger problems migration declines in Colorado and its biggest cities.
So this particular report is primarily a demographic report, and
why don't you tell me what you think the key
(01:19):
takeaways are? And then I got some questions for you. Great.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
Yes, I think fewer movers means bigger economic and workforce
problems for the state. So we were curious, and what
are those net migration trends for our great state of
Colorado's We looked at the last ten years ross and
we wanted to understand what are the in migration versus
out migration trends. That's what net migration is. So when
(01:46):
we look across ten years, we saw a decline of
about fifty three percent in terms of net migrations for Colorado.
And I want to be clear, that still means more
people are coming to the state than are leaving, but
the rate has really slowed. We then wanted to dig
into Denver metro region. So that's you know, Denver Aurora
(02:11):
Lakewood for this report, and for excuse me, actually a
little bit larger that one is showing a larger footprint
of really the whole front range ron. So that's showing
even bolder Denver Aurora for that story. It's even sharper,
it's showing a closer to a seventy percent decrease in
net migration over the last ten years.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
One of the things that I noticed, Kelly, in both
of these graphs is, for let's call it six years
starting in twenty fifteen for the state and for Denver
with there was a little blip up in twenty eighteen,
but generally the trend was significantly down down until you
get into COVID, and then nobody's really moving around much
(02:55):
in COVID, so the numbers are all real low, and
then there's been a slow, deady climb since then. But
it looks to me like in terms of the decline,
most of the damage or however you'd want to term it,
happened in the several years before COVID, rather than in
the last few years. So you know, in my mind,
(03:16):
the first thing that comes to my mind, Kelly, is gosh,
Colorado has gotten so expensive and the traffic has gotten
so bad, and just things like that that maybe make
it a little bit more challenging to want to move here.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
That's right, you know, the net migration. When we talked
to the State Demographer's office, you know, they like to
note that twenty fifteen was a real boomyar for Colorado.
So when you do this ten year look back, it's
pretty interesting and it's important to take note of that.
But as you can see in the figures in the report,
we still had we're still looking good in twenty sixteen
and twenty seventeen, and you're right somewhere around, you know,
(03:52):
twenty eighteen to twenty twenty, we just started to see
this trend which is really concerning for economic and workforce
reasons of not as many people moving to Colorado, and
that got much more obvious in the Denver metro region.
You know, we also looked at Colorado Springs, that's a
real important city for Colorado's economy. They also saw net
(04:17):
migration decrease, but it's a smaller rate that was closer
to thirty percent over the last ten years.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
So you know, Okay, I think what I want to
do is so keep that big picture in mind, and
then I want to move to the other study now,
the one by Thomas Young Denver metro area in perspective jobs, retail, sales,
population growth. So this covers a whole bunch of things
as well, and a focus on Denver. As the title
(04:45):
notes to me, this one because it includes some of
these other things is maybe even a little more sobering.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
Yeah, this study was really interesting. We wanted to better
understand how does the Denver metro compared to other cities
that we see as competitors. And the bottom line is
Denver Metro. Again, this is not just Denver, this is
the Denver Metro region. We're looking at Denver Aurora Centennial
(05:14):
and we used to be an A plus student ronson.
Now we're more middle of the pack. The Denver Metro
region has been well reported by a variety of sources
that you've had on your show. We're really booming in
the twenty tens and early twenty twenties, but the economics
and demographics are changing in a few ways. We just
talked about net migration. I love to hit on two
(05:36):
other points that we have in Thomas's report. One is
really first, job growth. That's something that we're asked about
all the time. What's going on with job growth and
the Denver metro region. And unfortunately we're a middle performer
now we're more of that C student versus A plus.
And we wanted to compare ourselves to other cities that
(05:58):
are attracting young workers, good culture, they're attracting businesses for
expansion and a startup. So we looked at Austin, Raleigh, Nashville, Miami, Tampa, Charlotte,
even Phoenix, and we aren't doing as good as those
in terms of job growth. They're all doing better. But
(06:20):
I said, we're in the middle of the pack. Denver
is doing better than some of our West Coast cities
like San Francisco, Seattle, and Portland since April of twenty twenty.
That's really where we're starting to see the slowing of
job growth. It started in the twenty twenty twenty twenty
one time frame, and our job growth during that period
was about twenty one percent. But that puts us in
(06:42):
the middle of the pack. It's not where we want
to be.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
I also noticed a key finding in this report about
retail sales, and I'll just read from the report here.
When comparing retail sales growth from the end of twenty
twenty four through the first quarter of twenty twenty five,
the Denver Aurora Centennial metro area had the third lowest
retail sales growth rate reported across three hundred and eighty
(07:07):
seven metro areas around the country. And actually they were
down one point two percent, which is only zero point
one percent better than the weakest metro area in the
whole country, which is two falls South Dakota. And this,
Kelly plays into what we've heard from the mayor of
Denver actually, who was on my show yesterday talking about
(07:28):
how they need to fill a two hundred and fifty
million dollars budget gap because retail sales are coming in
or sales taxes coming in so much less. Aurora is
having the same problem on a smaller scale, and so
is Colorado Springs.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
That's absolutely right, and I think that's one of the
more interesting findings here. What is going on with retail sales.
I mean, to be one of the lowest of nearly
four hundred metro areas across the country, has huge impacts
to these city budgets. You know, we were looking at
if Denver had stayed at the Denver Metro again, it's
(08:04):
not just Denver, Denver Metro, Denver roorri Centennial. If that
jurisdiction had stayed on track for retail sales growth that
we had been seeing, you know, starting back in twenty twenty,
the city of Denver, excuse me, the Denver region would
have had an additional one hundred and forty five million,
and that's certainly Denver's a big driver right of that.
(08:26):
Denver msa region that I'm talking about, So there would
have been at least you know, millions of dollars that
would have helped to address that two hundred and fifty
million budget shortfall over the next two years. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
So, I mean, I think what we gather from these studies,
and for those just joining, we're talking with Kelly Cawfield,
executive director of the Common Sense Institute, and what I
what I gather from these studies, Kelly, is that while
I wouldn't call things terrible in in a state that
(09:00):
is used to being kind of you know, full of boomtowns,
let's say now we're just sort of kind of middle
in the middle of the pack and a lot of
things and seeing more like a normal city.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
That's right, you know, used to be a plus. Now
we're more of a C student And that's not where
our employers want to be. It's not where you know,
I know our leaders want to be. You know, that
four hundred metro area ranking where we're at one of
the bottom levels for retail sales growth. And again that's
really just sort of the last six months. Russ. That's
(09:35):
a really interesting trend. And you know, I think a
part of that story. We don't know for sure why
we're at the very bottom there, but it could. I
think it's a part of the net migration story when
we look at just the first half, right, we don't
know for sure what twenty twenty five is going to
look like for net migration. We got to be basing
(09:55):
off of some projections that we're basing our work off
of for the State Demography Office, but we're estimating thirty
six thousand fewer arrivals this year. So we think the
migration challenges is a part of the slowing retail sales
growth we're seeing.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
And I will say this isn't so much an economic point,
but there are probably quite a lot of people listening
to us right now who when they hear all right,
you know there are Let me see if I can
find the number on the chart here for Colorado. Let's
see the wait, those Colorado springs. Let me find the
whole chart. Okay, So like a little less than thirty
(10:34):
three thousand net migration, you know versus sixty nine ten
years ago, you might have a lot of people saying, good,
this place too crowded. Housing prices are going up too much,
the traffic's too bad. We actually want it to grow less.
I'll give you the last word.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
I think it's easy to want to think that way,
but I think for the broader good of our state,
un real concerned about inflation, and I'm concerned about housing
and public safety. And even with this slowing down of
net migration, we should all care about the cost of living.
That's impacting all of us at all levels of income
(11:18):
are housing challenges. Colorado is ranked fiftieth by Common Sense
Institutes home Buyer Misery Index, and we are seeing challenges
with crime. We used to be more middle of the
pack in terms of crime and now we're forty third.
So while I would say it might be nicer to
feel less crowded, we should all care about public safety, housing,
(11:38):
cost of living, and that's I think a big part
of our slowdown.
Speaker 1 (11:42):
I think you're absolutely right. These things are all very,
very interconnected, and they also tend to you will tend
to have market forces that cause correction. Putting aside even
for a minute, the issues about crime and you know,
homeless industrates and all that which are legate issues on point.
You know, a place gets very popular and Colorado, shoot,
(12:03):
it's a spectacular place to live. A lot of people
move here, prices go up, and then at some point
prices go up enough that people say I can't afford
to move there anymore, and it slows down. Or some
people say, my house is worth so much now in Colorado,
I'm going to sell it and move and move to Arkansas.
I can't tell you how many listeners I've gotten that
message from. So it is also interesting, in addition to
(12:24):
those quality of life issues, how fundamental market forces can
also impact some of these data series.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
That's right. I mean, Denver Metro, we're just no longer
that high growth outlier that we used to be, and
I think a real dedicated focus on how we bring
the jobs back and address our declining retail sales should
be a huge priority for state and loqual leaders folks.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
Common Sense Institute is a fantastic source of unbiased, nonpartisan
research on all kinds of issues that impact the state
of Colorado, the stuff you heard us talk about today
with demographics and retail sales and jobs, crime, health, all
kinds of things. The easiest website CSI COO like Common
(13:11):
Sense Institute, Colorado CSI co dot org. Kelly Cawfield is
executive director of the Common Sense Institute. Thanks for your time, Kelly,
Thank you so.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
Much, Ross, and thanks for being one of our colloms.
Speaker 1 (13:23):
Oh, it's my honor, it's my owner, all right. That's
that's Kelly Cawfield.
Kelly Cawfield, who is the executive director of the Common
Sense Institute, where I am proud to be the Mikey
Loprino Free Enterprise Fellow as well. You know, in my
work there, I focus well, they do most of the work,
but in my work there, I focus primarily on economic issues.
But Common Sense Institute puts out nonpartisan, deeply researched papers.
(00:24):
They're not really political arguments or you should do this
or that. It's more analysis and then here's some things
you might think about. But they do this an enormous
range of issues, right crime, healthcare, the economic stuff I'm
involved with. What we're going to talk with Kelly about
today is two different studies that have to do with
(00:46):
the intersection of demographics and economics in Denver and more
broadly in Colorado. So hey, Kelly, welcome back. It's good
to have you here.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
Thanks so much. Ross. I'm excited to dive into these reports.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
Let's start with the Colorade and this is from Cole
Anderson and doctor Caitlin McKenny and the headline Fewer Movers,
Bigger problems migration declines in Colorado and its biggest cities.
So this particular report is primarily a demographic report, and
why don't you tell me what you think the key
(01:19):
takeaways are? And then I got some questions for you. Great.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
Yes, I think fewer movers means bigger economic and workforce
problems for the state. So we were curious, and what
are those net migration trends for our great state of
Colorado's We looked at the last ten years ross and
we wanted to understand what are the in migration versus
out migration trends. That's what net migration is. So when
(01:46):
we look across ten years, we saw a decline of
about fifty three percent in terms of net migrations for Colorado.
And I want to be clear, that still means more
people are coming to the state than are leaving, but
the rate has really slowed. We then wanted to dig
into Denver metro region. So that's you know, Denver Aurora
(02:11):
Lakewood for this report, and for excuse me, actually a
little bit larger that one is showing a larger footprint
of really the whole front range ron. So that's showing
even bolder Denver Aurora for that story. It's even sharper,
it's showing a closer to a seventy percent decrease in
net migration over the last ten years.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
One of the things that I noticed, Kelly, in both
of these graphs is, for let's call it six years
starting in twenty fifteen for the state and for Denver
with there was a little blip up in twenty eighteen,
but generally the trend was significantly down down until you
get into COVID, and then nobody's really moving around much
(02:55):
in COVID, so the numbers are all real low, and
then there's been a slow, deady climb since then. But
it looks to me like in terms of the decline,
most of the damage or however you'd want to term it,
happened in the several years before COVID, rather than in
the last few years. So you know, in my mind,
(03:16):
the first thing that comes to my mind, Kelly, is gosh,
Colorado has gotten so expensive and the traffic has gotten
so bad, and just things like that that maybe make
it a little bit more challenging to want to move here.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
That's right, you know, the net migration. When we talked
to the State Demographer's office, you know, they like to
note that twenty fifteen was a real boomyar for Colorado.
So when you do this ten year look back, it's
pretty interesting and it's important to take note of that.
But as you can see in the figures in the report,
we still had we're still looking good in twenty sixteen
and twenty seventeen, and you're right somewhere around, you know,
(03:52):
twenty eighteen to twenty twenty, we just started to see
this trend which is really concerning for economic and workforce
reasons of not as many people moving to Colorado, and
that got much more obvious in the Denver metro region.
You know, we also looked at Colorado Springs, that's a
real important city for Colorado's economy. They also saw net
(04:17):
migration decrease, but it's a smaller rate that was closer
to thirty percent over the last ten years.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
So you know, Okay, I think what I want to
do is so keep that big picture in mind, and
then I want to move to the other study now,
the one by Thomas Young Denver metro area in perspective jobs, retail, sales,
population growth. So this covers a whole bunch of things
as well, and a focus on Denver. As the title
(04:45):
notes to me, this one because it includes some of
these other things is maybe even a little more sobering.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
Yeah, this study was really interesting. We wanted to better
understand how does the Denver metro compared to other cities
that we see as competitors. And the bottom line is
Denver Metro. Again, this is not just Denver, this is
the Denver Metro region. We're looking at Denver Aurora Centennial
(05:14):
and we used to be an A plus student ronson.
Now we're more middle of the pack. The Denver Metro
region has been well reported by a variety of sources
that you've had on your show. We're really booming in
the twenty tens and early twenty twenties, but the economics
and demographics are changing in a few ways. We just
talked about net migration. I love to hit on two
(05:36):
other points that we have in Thomas's report. One is
really first, job growth. That's something that we're asked about
all the time. What's going on with job growth and
the Denver metro region. And unfortunately we're a middle performer
now we're more of that C student versus A plus.
And we wanted to compare ourselves to other cities that
(05:58):
are attracting young workers, good culture, they're attracting businesses for
expansion and a startup. So we looked at Austin, Raleigh, Nashville, Miami, Tampa, Charlotte,
even Phoenix, and we aren't doing as good as those
in terms of job growth. They're all doing better. But
(06:20):
I said, we're in the middle of the pack. Denver
is doing better than some of our West Coast cities
like San Francisco, Seattle, and Portland since April of twenty twenty.
That's really where we're starting to see the slowing of
job growth. It started in the twenty twenty twenty twenty
one time frame, and our job growth during that period
was about twenty one percent. But that puts us in
(06:42):
the middle of the pack. It's not where we want
to be.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
I also noticed a key finding in this report about
retail sales, and I'll just read from the report here.
When comparing retail sales growth from the end of twenty
twenty four through the first quarter of twenty twenty five,
the Denver Aurora Centennial metro area had the third lowest
retail sales growth rate reported across three hundred and eighty
(07:07):
seven metro areas around the country. And actually they were
down one point two percent, which is only zero point
one percent better than the weakest metro area in the
whole country, which is two falls South Dakota. And this,
Kelly plays into what we've heard from the mayor of
Denver actually, who was on my show yesterday talking about
(07:28):
how they need to fill a two hundred and fifty
million dollars budget gap because retail sales are coming in
or sales taxes coming in so much less. Aurora is
having the same problem on a smaller scale, and so
is Colorado Springs.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
That's absolutely right, and I think that's one of the
more interesting findings here. What is going on with retail sales.
I mean, to be one of the lowest of nearly
four hundred metro areas across the country, has huge impacts
to these city budgets. You know, we were looking at
if Denver had stayed at the Denver Metro again, it's
(08:04):
not just Denver, Denver Metro, Denver roorri Centennial. If that
jurisdiction had stayed on track for retail sales growth that
we had been seeing, you know, starting back in twenty twenty,
the city of Denver, excuse me, the Denver region would
have had an additional one hundred and forty five million,
and that's certainly Denver's a big driver right of that.
(08:26):
Denver msa region that I'm talking about, So there would
have been at least you know, millions of dollars that
would have helped to address that two hundred and fifty
million budget shortfall over the next two years. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
So, I mean, I think what we gather from these studies,
and for those just joining, we're talking with Kelly Cawfield,
executive director of the Common Sense Institute, and what I
what I gather from these studies, Kelly, is that while
I wouldn't call things terrible in in a state that
(09:00):
is used to being kind of you know, full of boomtowns,
let's say now we're just sort of kind of middle
in the middle of the pack and a lot of
things and seeing more like a normal city.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
That's right, you know, used to be a plus. Now
we're more of a C student And that's not where
our employers want to be. It's not where you know,
I know our leaders want to be. You know, that
four hundred metro area ranking where we're at one of
the bottom levels for retail sales growth. And again that's
really just sort of the last six months. Russ. That's
(09:35):
a really interesting trend. And you know, I think a
part of that story. We don't know for sure why
we're at the very bottom there, but it could. I
think it's a part of the net migration story when
we look at just the first half, right, we don't
know for sure what twenty twenty five is going to
look like for net migration. We got to be basing
(09:55):
off of some projections that we're basing our work off
of for the State Demography Office, but we're estimating thirty
six thousand fewer arrivals this year. So we think the
migration challenges is a part of the slowing retail sales
growth we're seeing.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
And I will say this isn't so much an economic point,
but there are probably quite a lot of people listening
to us right now who when they hear all right,
you know there are Let me see if I can
find the number on the chart here for Colorado. Let's
see the wait, those Colorado springs. Let me find the
whole chart. Okay, So like a little less than thirty
(10:34):
three thousand net migration, you know versus sixty nine ten
years ago, you might have a lot of people saying, good,
this place too crowded. Housing prices are going up too much,
the traffic's too bad. We actually want it to grow less.
I'll give you the last word.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
I think it's easy to want to think that way,
but I think for the broader good of our state,
un real concerned about inflation, and I'm concerned about housing
and public safety. And even with this slowing down of
net migration, we should all care about the cost of living.
That's impacting all of us at all levels of income
(11:18):
are housing challenges. Colorado is ranked fiftieth by Common Sense
Institutes home Buyer Misery Index, and we are seeing challenges
with crime. We used to be more middle of the
pack in terms of crime and now we're forty third.
So while I would say it might be nicer to
feel less crowded, we should all care about public safety, housing,
(11:38):
cost of living, and that's I think a big part
of our slowdown.
Speaker 1 (11:42):
I think you're absolutely right. These things are all very,
very interconnected, and they also tend to you will tend
to have market forces that cause correction. Putting aside even
for a minute, the issues about crime and you know,
homeless industrates and all that which are legate issues on point.
You know, a place gets very popular and Colorado, shoot,
(12:03):
it's a spectacular place to live. A lot of people
move here, prices go up, and then at some point
prices go up enough that people say I can't afford
to move there anymore, and it slows down. Or some
people say, my house is worth so much now in Colorado,
I'm going to sell it and move and move to Arkansas.
I can't tell you how many listeners I've gotten that
message from. So it is also interesting, in addition to
(12:24):
those quality of life issues, how fundamental market forces can
also impact some of these data series.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
That's right. I mean, Denver Metro, we're just no longer
that high growth outlier that we used to be, and
I think a real dedicated focus on how we bring
the jobs back and address our declining retail sales should
be a huge priority for state and loqual leaders folks.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
Common Sense Institute is a fantastic source of unbiased, nonpartisan
research on all kinds of issues that impact the state
of Colorado, the stuff you heard us talk about today
with demographics and retail sales and jobs, crime, health, all
kinds of things. The easiest website CSI COO like Common
(13:11):
Sense Institute, Colorado CSI co dot org. Kelly Cawfield is
executive director of the Common Sense Institute. Thanks for your time, Kelly,
Thank you so.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
Much, Ross, and thanks for being one of our colloms.
Speaker 1 (13:23):
Oh, it's my honor, it's my owner, all right. That's
that's Kelly Cawfield.
The Ross Kaminsky Show News
Popular Podcasts
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.