Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
I thought of my friend Ed Pray there.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
The other day, my wife and I we were driving
through rural Jefferson County to go for a.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Hike, and we actually drove by an Ed Pray.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
They're listing out there near where we went hiking, near
where I saw a black bear across the road. So
that would be a bonus if you if you buy
that house the dad is selling.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
Ed is just a.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Fantastic real estate agent, a personal friend of mine, valued
morning show partner, and Ed and I have a bet
about real estate prices for calendar year twenty twenty five.
So Hi, Ed, welcome back. It's been a little while
since I talked to you. It's good to see you.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
Ross is always a pleasure. It's great to be on What.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Don't you just tell people what our bet is?
Speaker 4 (00:50):
Okay, So we are looking at during the calendar year
twenty twenty five, are we going to see the median
closed price across the eleven counties make up the Denver
metro area increased by three percent? And coincidentally, what that
really looks like based on the month of December, is
we that price would be above six hundred thousand, almost
(01:14):
like to the dollar and you know, like you and
I have been talking about, it's a very i'll use
the word interesting market, especially with this latest data to
come out.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
Right, and I want to talk mostly about the data,
but I'll just talk about one little artifact here so far.
The median closed price in Denver is a Denver metro
area is up a bit for the year.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
Which makes it seem like ED is winning.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
Well, ED is winning because that's the series that we're measuring,
even though and I would still lose the bet. But
I'm going to explain this anyway. I think kind of conceptually,
I think I'm right, But what's happening is, since it's
not based on what's the average value of every home
that exists in the Denver metro, it's about what houses
(02:02):
are actually selling.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
And so I'm gonna throw out a theory, Ed.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
And you tell me whether you think this is possible, probable,
or what. So, since the median closing sale home price
is up a little bit from last year, but since
I think real estate is a little bit weak, what
I suspect is going on is that there has been
a decline in the number of transactions of lower priced
(02:30):
homes that has been greater than the decline of transactions,
or there might not even be a decline, I don't
know with higher priced homes. And so therefore, of the
homes that are actually selling, the dollar value is up
a little bit, and that can happen even if actually
all real estate prices were down a.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
Little well to that point, you know, we joke around
a little bit ross that, you know state it feels
like nothing can just be black and white.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
So I would.
Speaker 4 (03:04):
Agree with that, but I would also say that it's
very subjective to area.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
And what I mean by that is if.
Speaker 4 (03:11):
We're looking at communities, you know, we're not talking zip codes,
we are talking about specific neighborhoods. There are certainly specific
neighborhoods across the metro area where lower price homes are
not selling and higher price homes are, and vice versa.
But I think you're right in you know, you and
(03:31):
I have talked a lot about, especially lately, you know,
some of these really hot markets as it pertains to
the higher price homes, you know, areas like apple Wood
or Cherry Hills, you're still seeing properties move in a
matter of just a couple of days. And just like
you had pointed out, we're talking, you know, two and
three million dollars plus.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
So there have been a bunch of news articles lately,
and you get this data anyway, you don't really need
the news articles. But headline from the Denver Gazette state
wide housing report shows swelling inventory but prices still hold.
Headline from the Colorado Springs Gazette local home listings hit
(04:14):
eleven year high sales increase despite price records. So that
does show, you know, a little difference here and there
in Colorado Springs, not in the Denver metro area, but
in general. What can you tell us about two things?
Inventory levels right now and transaction volume right now?
Speaker 3 (04:34):
Well? Absolutely, And you know, right before our call, I
had noted, you.
Speaker 4 (04:39):
Know, when we hit ten thousand active units across the
metro area, you have some alarm bell started going off
only because we hadn't seen that amount of inventory in many,
many years. Yeah, you know, as of the end of June,
we're now above fourteen thousand wow, active listings on the market,
which is which is very surprising.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
When we contrast that and I.
Speaker 4 (05:04):
Will get to the volume of sales, but when we
contrast that to the media and close.
Speaker 3 (05:07):
Price, because it actually went up to.
Speaker 4 (05:10):
Six hundred and ten two hundred dollars, representing a one
point seven percent increase between May and June, which is
just it's hard to it's hard to believe, really, and
I think it shows resilience in this housing market in sellers,
even if they're not able to sell, you know, they're
they're taking their property off the market quickly. As we
(05:32):
see the median days on market at only eighteen days.
You're just seeing sellers not really willing at least right
now to make price major price reductions. And so, you know,
getting back to your point, you know, the number of
close homes decreased by almost ten percent between May and June.
(05:53):
And part of that is some seasonality as we get
into the summer season of travel, but that's that is significant,
and I think part of that is sellers are seeing
the news, they're seeing the swelling inventory, and instead of
testing the market, they're saying, maybe we wait until you know, hey,
potentially interest rates come down or we see absorption kick up.
Speaker 3 (06:16):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
And on the interest rate thing, people have been waiting
that for a long time now on the long term rates,
and it's not happening. There was this brief downward spike
I don't remember when it was, maybe a year ago
or something like that, where September yeah, yeah, okay, so
and the mortgage rates went from roughly seven to roughly
(06:37):
six even maybe got into the high fives if you
caught a good tick one day, but it didn't last
very long. And now it's back up close to seven again.
And how big a factor is that?
Speaker 3 (06:51):
It's big ross.
Speaker 4 (06:52):
You know, when we look at real estate, there's two
main drivers, and that is interest rates and then employment
and unite both know, you know, it appears that the
unemployment rate is taking up a little bit, but historically speaking,
I believe four point two percent, if I'm.
Speaker 3 (07:08):
Not mistaken, that's not crazy.
Speaker 4 (07:11):
And it should also be noted that we hit eight
percent mortgage rates in October of twenty twenty three, So
I mean, yes, we're at higher interest rates than several
years ago.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
We all know that, but it's far from the peak.
So I think that there's this.
Speaker 4 (07:25):
Third driver and it would be hard to ignore it,
and that is the uncertainty in the economy. And it
just is very difficult for buyers to want to make
big life decisions when we don't know what's coming tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (07:41):
So all right, let's talk about the current situation.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
Then, a lot of homes for sale, not necessarily sitting
around for long, but as you said, if it seems
like a home is sitting around, then then with maybe
a higher than usual frequency, the sellers are taking their
homes off the market.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
Is it this daable to.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
Have high inventory and price is not going down or
do you feel like it's inevitable that prices have to
go I mean, nothing's really inevitable, but just based on
your experience, what are the chances that prices don't go
down from here?
Speaker 1 (08:18):
Given that there are fourteen thousand units on the market.
Speaker 4 (08:22):
It's a great question, and I will say every time
I treat try to read the crystal ball, I you know,
I put my foot in my mouth, but I think
it's unlikely that we can sustain, you know, especially if
you I mean, you might see prices stagnate, but I
would not be surprised even when we get our July
(08:42):
data to see them tick down a bit, you know,
because what we're seeing is you've got savvy buyers, opportunistic
buyers that are starting to come out of the woodwork because.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
There are I mean, there are good deals out there
right now.
Speaker 4 (08:57):
And that's not to say that you know, folks aren't
getting you know, hitting their goals on on the seller
side of things. But you've got to be really careful
bringing a property market, making sure that you can differentiate
through finishes, you know, the lot orientation, that the pricing
and the marketing is right, because otherwise the last thing
you want to do is have to differentiate through pricing
(09:19):
because as you can imagine, ross, if you've got three
other properties on your street and they're all about the same, well,
a buyer's probably going to jump on the one that
has the most attractive pricing. And so bottom line, I
would not be surprised at all to see the media
and closed price tick down. And then I think a
big part of this is, of course, like we talked
(09:39):
about uncertainty in the economy, and then the key factor
here is interest rates. And if there were significant movement
or improvement and rates, I mean you could see double
or triple the amount of showings one weekend to the next.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
Wow, we're talking with ed Pray.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
They're excellent real estate agent, ed pro at p R
A t H e R dot com. You know, it's
funny as you describe you know, all right, you need
to differentiate your home by having it basically by having
it be a little nicer than the next guy's home,
because if it's not, the only thing you're gonna be
able to do is cut the price, which is not
what you.
Speaker 1 (10:16):
Want to do.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
And all this stuff that you're describing actually is a
normal real estate market. It just feels odd to us
because we went these years, not just the COVID years,
but in Colorado even some years a little bit before that,
where it was just such a seller's market all the time.
You know, I use this bad analogy. Ed When I
(10:38):
was a kid, this is a true story. When I
was a kid, I went deep sea fishing with my dad.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
We went a lot.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
One time, the boat went through or near this massive
school of io was mackerel or bonito or something like that,
and it was just the biggest school of fish I've
ever seen, and they were so hungry that you could
throw an unbaited hook and they would bite it and
you would catch a fish without any bait.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
But that's not normally what it's like. That's what the
real estate market was like.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
If you were a seller three years ago, you know,
or for whatever something like that. But that's not normal.
So pick up that analogy and describe kind of normal,
you know, is now normal compared to what's it like
having been a realtor around here for the last years.
Speaker 4 (11:28):
Well, I mean, that's a great analogy, and we joke, actually,
ross like we are so far beyond the point of
throwing a sign in the yard and crossing our fingers
because I mean, frankly speaking, I hate to say it,
but three or four years ago, I mean you put
a property on the market that was priced halfway decent.
(11:49):
I mean it's going to get not just an offer,
but multiple offers, and most likely above list price. So
now it's hard for me to say this is normal
because if we look at the you know, fourteen one
thousand plush of active listings on the market, we have
to go all the way back to pre twenty eleven
to hit those inventory levels.
Speaker 3 (12:09):
But you know, I also want to mention that historically.
Speaker 4 (12:13):
Speaking, we would say that four to six months of
inventory of active listings based on the current absorption rate
is a balanced market and interesting enough, as of the
end of June, we're still only at three points six three.
Speaker 3 (12:29):
Months, so it's very interesting.
Speaker 4 (12:31):
It can be difficult to some extent to understand the
data because obviously you've got swelling inventory, You've got you know,
it's never been a better buyer's market in the entire
time that I've been an agent, you know, obviously until
you go back to the two thousand and eight, two
thousand and nine, but you know, you're still saying, but
(12:53):
by historical standards that we only know, we have less
than four months of inventory, which is frankly, Oh, it's surprising.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
Listener question, how large is the geographic area that Ed
Prather covers with his real estate services?
Speaker 3 (13:12):
That's a great question.
Speaker 4 (13:13):
You know, we operate as a team, and so we're
able to provide a lot of leverage to our agents
that allows us to operate from Fort Collins down to
Colorado Springs. We do a little bit of I seventy
not a ton and and just I want to be
completely transparent, we don't do much of anything in Boulder,
(13:33):
but outside of that, you know, we take listenings and
help buyers almost across the entire metro area, and we're
able to do that with the team model that we incorporate.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
Now, this listener is asking, and these are not places
that are near each other but somewhat out slightly outlying areas.
A listener is asking about Bennett, Larkspur, Firestone.
Speaker 3 (13:53):
Absolutely, absolutely all of that.
Speaker 4 (13:55):
I believe that we have listenings and barks for and
Bennett right now, and I think we have something going
live in Firestone this weekend.
Speaker 3 (14:05):
You know, we take our listenings live on Thursday.
Speaker 4 (14:07):
So those are areas that we cover and your you know,
it's interesting with those areas because we're seeing a lot
of developments, you know, as we push out and people
are wanting more and more, you know, some space, you
have some breathing room. And I think that that's been
sort of the theme since COVID in seeing people leave
(14:29):
that high density. In fact, the CBD, the Central Business District,
is having a very difficult time, you know, because of
that fact people just wanting to get some some space. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
And also, you know, land prices have gotten so expensive
that you need to go past the suburbs to the
exurbs for a lot of folks to get something you
can afford, especially maybe a first home for a young couple.
Kristin and I were out near Elizabeth in Elbert County
looking at trees we were looking at trees for the
you know, we're real landscaping there house that you've seen,
(15:01):
and boy, the number of developments out there, which is
I mean if you live in if you work in
Denver or in DTC or something, I mean like that's
a heck of a drive. But there are at least hundreds,
maybe thousands of units being built. So that leads to
my next question for you. And we just have a
couple of minutes left here. It seems like I feel
(15:26):
like I'm seeing the biggest increase in new construction supply
maybe since I've been in Colorado.
Speaker 1 (15:33):
Do you are you seeing something like that?
Speaker 2 (15:36):
And when you tie it in with the fact that
Colorado's population growth rate has slowed dramatically, do you think
we may end up in a situation where there is
truly over supply of housing.
Speaker 3 (15:52):
Well, I do.
Speaker 4 (15:53):
And it's interesting because if we're talking about you know,
areas that we just mentioned, you know, like you know, Bennett,
Larkspur or Elizabeth, you're absolutely right where you're seeing just
an incredible amount of development. And I think we are
absolutely on the verge of that because the same reason
that Colorado was so attractive for so long which was
(16:17):
the cost of living, has now become one of the
primary reasons that folks are taking off. And that's not
to say that, you know, people don't want to be here.
I mean I can't see us ever live leaving. I mean,
I'm a Colorado native. I love it, but you get it, Yeah,
you see it.
Speaker 3 (16:32):
It's tough.
Speaker 4 (16:33):
I think that an oversupply, especially of new housing in infill,
you know, so in higher density density areas, is unlikely.
Speaker 3 (16:42):
But you do see what's happening, you know, near and
around the.
Speaker 4 (16:45):
Airport in Green Valley Ranch, there is an incredible amount
of inventory. And what's interesting, Ross is the way that
the builders operate is they can incentivize differently. So if
you can imagine they are offering rates in the four
for thirty or fixed, if you can believe.
Speaker 3 (17:03):
It, because that's what they're having to do.
Speaker 4 (17:05):
I am astounded though, by just the number of housing starts,
because I have the same feeling.
Speaker 3 (17:12):
At some point you just can't keep up with it.
Speaker 4 (17:14):
I mean, especially if you don't have interest rates come down,
whether you offer the incentives or not.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
Ed Pray There's website is unsurprisingly Edprather dot com Ed
p R A. T.
Speaker 1 (17:25):
H e R dot com.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
If you're gonna sell a home, we don't even talk
about it that much. But Ed and his team are
happy to help you on the other side too, if
you're buying a home, happy to help you work on
any part of a real estate transaction. And as we
just discussed, he and his team cover are a very
wide geographic area around the Denver metro. Mandy, do you
want to say anything to Ed as long as he's
here other than can you you? Ah?
Speaker 4 (17:47):
Hi?
Speaker 3 (17:48):
Ed? Hi, Mandy, I'm so happy to hear your voice.
Speaker 5 (17:53):
Well, we got to get you on the show, but
I have to have some separation, nows you. We're on
this clown ross. I gotta get that stink off you Firs.
But obviously great information. So basically, it's a great time
to sell a house and it's a great time to
buy a house, but you better have the right reel
dor on both ends.
Speaker 3 (18:11):
Well, absolutely, you know, I think we need to remind ourselves.
Speaker 4 (18:14):
You know, house homes are selling every day, but we
just need to be very intentional. Throwing aside in the yard,
hoping for the best. Trusting a friend of a friend
who doesn't do any business at all is not the
way to do it. And on the buy side of things,
there are incredible deals. And to that point, we're going
to be watching this data very closely because to your point, Ross,
(18:34):
I think there's a good chance that we see that
media in close price slip. But right now you and
I both know that I am winning the best.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
And pray to dot com for all your help with
real estate. Thanks Ed, Thanks Ross, most pleasure. All Right,
we'll see you
I thought of my friend Ed Pray there.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
The other day, my wife and I we were driving
through rural Jefferson County to go for a.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Hike, and we actually drove by an Ed Pray.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
They're listing out there near where we went hiking, near
where I saw a black bear across the road. So
that would be a bonus if you if you buy
that house the dad is selling.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
Ed is just a.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Fantastic real estate agent, a personal friend of mine, valued
morning show partner, and Ed and I have a bet
about real estate prices for calendar year twenty twenty five.
So Hi, Ed, welcome back. It's been a little while
since I talked to you. It's good to see you.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
Ross is always a pleasure. It's great to be on What.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Don't you just tell people what our bet is?
Speaker 4 (00:50):
Okay, So we are looking at during the calendar year
twenty twenty five, are we going to see the median
closed price across the eleven counties make up the Denver
metro area increased by three percent? And coincidentally, what that
really looks like based on the month of December, is
we that price would be above six hundred thousand, almost
(01:14):
like to the dollar and you know, like you and
I have been talking about, it's a very i'll use
the word interesting market, especially with this latest data to
come out.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
Right, and I want to talk mostly about the data,
but I'll just talk about one little artifact here so far.
The median closed price in Denver is a Denver metro
area is up a bit for the year.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
Which makes it seem like ED is winning.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
Well, ED is winning because that's the series that we're measuring,
even though and I would still lose the bet. But
I'm going to explain this anyway. I think kind of conceptually,
I think I'm right, But what's happening is, since it's
not based on what's the average value of every home
that exists in the Denver metro, it's about what houses
(02:02):
are actually selling.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
And so I'm gonna throw out a theory, Ed.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
And you tell me whether you think this is possible, probable,
or what. So, since the median closing sale home price
is up a little bit from last year, but since
I think real estate is a little bit weak, what
I suspect is going on is that there has been
a decline in the number of transactions of lower priced
(02:30):
homes that has been greater than the decline of transactions,
or there might not even be a decline, I don't
know with higher priced homes. And so therefore, of the
homes that are actually selling, the dollar value is up
a little bit, and that can happen even if actually
all real estate prices were down a.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
Little well to that point, you know, we joke around
a little bit ross that, you know state it feels
like nothing can just be black and white.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
So I would.
Speaker 4 (03:04):
Agree with that, but I would also say that it's
very subjective to area.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
And what I mean by that is if.
Speaker 4 (03:11):
We're looking at communities, you know, we're not talking zip codes,
we are talking about specific neighborhoods. There are certainly specific
neighborhoods across the metro area where lower price homes are
not selling and higher price homes are, and vice versa.
But I think you're right in you know, you and
(03:31):
I have talked a lot about, especially lately, you know,
some of these really hot markets as it pertains to
the higher price homes, you know, areas like apple Wood
or Cherry Hills, you're still seeing properties move in a
matter of just a couple of days. And just like
you had pointed out, we're talking, you know, two and
three million dollars plus.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
So there have been a bunch of news articles lately,
and you get this data anyway, you don't really need
the news articles. But headline from the Denver Gazette state
wide housing report shows swelling inventory but prices still hold.
Headline from the Colorado Springs Gazette local home listings hit
(04:14):
eleven year high sales increase despite price records. So that
does show, you know, a little difference here and there
in Colorado Springs, not in the Denver metro area, but
in general. What can you tell us about two things?
Inventory levels right now and transaction volume right now?
Speaker 3 (04:34):
Well? Absolutely, And you know, right before our call, I
had noted, you.
Speaker 4 (04:39):
Know, when we hit ten thousand active units across the
metro area, you have some alarm bell started going off
only because we hadn't seen that amount of inventory in many,
many years. Yeah, you know, as of the end of June,
we're now above fourteen thousand wow, active listings on the market,
which is which is very surprising.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
When we contrast that and I.
Speaker 4 (05:04):
Will get to the volume of sales, but when we
contrast that to the media and close.
Speaker 3 (05:07):
Price, because it actually went up to.
Speaker 4 (05:10):
Six hundred and ten two hundred dollars, representing a one
point seven percent increase between May and June, which is
just it's hard to it's hard to believe, really, and
I think it shows resilience in this housing market in sellers,
even if they're not able to sell, you know, they're
they're taking their property off the market quickly. As we
(05:32):
see the median days on market at only eighteen days.
You're just seeing sellers not really willing at least right
now to make price major price reductions. And so, you know,
getting back to your point, you know, the number of
close homes decreased by almost ten percent between May and June.
(05:53):
And part of that is some seasonality as we get
into the summer season of travel, but that's that is significant,
and I think part of that is sellers are seeing
the news, they're seeing the swelling inventory, and instead of
testing the market, they're saying, maybe we wait until you know, hey,
potentially interest rates come down or we see absorption kick up.
Speaker 3 (06:16):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
And on the interest rate thing, people have been waiting
that for a long time now on the long term rates,
and it's not happening. There was this brief downward spike
I don't remember when it was, maybe a year ago
or something like that, where September yeah, yeah, okay, so
and the mortgage rates went from roughly seven to roughly
(06:37):
six even maybe got into the high fives if you
caught a good tick one day, but it didn't last
very long. And now it's back up close to seven again.
And how big a factor is that?
Speaker 3 (06:51):
It's big ross.
Speaker 4 (06:52):
You know, when we look at real estate, there's two
main drivers, and that is interest rates and then employment
and unite both know, you know, it appears that the
unemployment rate is taking up a little bit, but historically speaking,
I believe four point two percent, if I'm.
Speaker 3 (07:08):
Not mistaken, that's not crazy.
Speaker 4 (07:11):
And it should also be noted that we hit eight
percent mortgage rates in October of twenty twenty three, So
I mean, yes, we're at higher interest rates than several
years ago.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
We all know that, but it's far from the peak.
So I think that there's this.
Speaker 4 (07:25):
Third driver and it would be hard to ignore it,
and that is the uncertainty in the economy. And it
just is very difficult for buyers to want to make
big life decisions when we don't know what's coming tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (07:41):
So all right, let's talk about the current situation.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
Then, a lot of homes for sale, not necessarily sitting
around for long, but as you said, if it seems
like a home is sitting around, then then with maybe
a higher than usual frequency, the sellers are taking their
homes off the market.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
Is it this daable to.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
Have high inventory and price is not going down or
do you feel like it's inevitable that prices have to
go I mean, nothing's really inevitable, but just based on
your experience, what are the chances that prices don't go
down from here?
Speaker 1 (08:18):
Given that there are fourteen thousand units on the market.
Speaker 4 (08:22):
It's a great question, and I will say every time
I treat try to read the crystal ball, I you know,
I put my foot in my mouth, but I think
it's unlikely that we can sustain, you know, especially if
you I mean, you might see prices stagnate, but I
would not be surprised even when we get our July
(08:42):
data to see them tick down a bit, you know,
because what we're seeing is you've got savvy buyers, opportunistic
buyers that are starting to come out of the woodwork because.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
There are I mean, there are good deals out there
right now.
Speaker 4 (08:57):
And that's not to say that you know, folks aren't
getting you know, hitting their goals on on the seller
side of things. But you've got to be really careful
bringing a property market, making sure that you can differentiate
through finishes, you know, the lot orientation, that the pricing
and the marketing is right, because otherwise the last thing
you want to do is have to differentiate through pricing
(09:19):
because as you can imagine, ross, if you've got three
other properties on your street and they're all about the same, well,
a buyer's probably going to jump on the one that
has the most attractive pricing. And so bottom line, I
would not be surprised at all to see the media
and closed price tick down. And then I think a
big part of this is, of course, like we talked
(09:39):
about uncertainty in the economy, and then the key factor
here is interest rates. And if there were significant movement
or improvement and rates, I mean you could see double
or triple the amount of showings one weekend to the next.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
Wow, we're talking with ed Pray.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
They're excellent real estate agent, ed pro at p R
A t H e R dot com. You know, it's
funny as you describe you know, all right, you need
to differentiate your home by having it basically by having
it be a little nicer than the next guy's home,
because if it's not, the only thing you're gonna be
able to do is cut the price, which is not
what you.
Speaker 1 (10:16):
Want to do.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
And all this stuff that you're describing actually is a
normal real estate market. It just feels odd to us
because we went these years, not just the COVID years,
but in Colorado even some years a little bit before that,
where it was just such a seller's market all the time.
You know, I use this bad analogy. Ed When I
(10:38):
was a kid, this is a true story. When I
was a kid, I went deep sea fishing with my dad.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
We went a lot.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
One time, the boat went through or near this massive
school of io was mackerel or bonito or something like that,
and it was just the biggest school of fish I've
ever seen, and they were so hungry that you could
throw an unbaited hook and they would bite it and
you would catch a fish without any bait.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
But that's not normally what it's like. That's what the
real estate market was like.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
If you were a seller three years ago, you know,
or for whatever something like that. But that's not normal.
So pick up that analogy and describe kind of normal,
you know, is now normal compared to what's it like
having been a realtor around here for the last years.
Speaker 4 (11:28):
Well, I mean, that's a great analogy, and we joke, actually,
ross like we are so far beyond the point of
throwing a sign in the yard and crossing our fingers
because I mean, frankly speaking, I hate to say it,
but three or four years ago, I mean you put
a property on the market that was priced halfway decent.
(11:49):
I mean it's going to get not just an offer,
but multiple offers, and most likely above list price. So
now it's hard for me to say this is normal
because if we look at the you know, fourteen one
thousand plush of active listings on the market, we have
to go all the way back to pre twenty eleven
to hit those inventory levels.
Speaker 3 (12:09):
But you know, I also want to mention that historically.
Speaker 4 (12:13):
Speaking, we would say that four to six months of
inventory of active listings based on the current absorption rate
is a balanced market and interesting enough, as of the
end of June, we're still only at three points six three.
Speaker 3 (12:29):
Months, so it's very interesting.
Speaker 4 (12:31):
It can be difficult to some extent to understand the
data because obviously you've got swelling inventory, You've got you know,
it's never been a better buyer's market in the entire
time that I've been an agent, you know, obviously until
you go back to the two thousand and eight, two
thousand and nine, but you know, you're still saying, but
(12:53):
by historical standards that we only know, we have less
than four months of inventory, which is frankly, Oh, it's surprising.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
Listener question, how large is the geographic area that Ed
Prather covers with his real estate services?
Speaker 3 (13:12):
That's a great question.
Speaker 4 (13:13):
You know, we operate as a team, and so we're
able to provide a lot of leverage to our agents
that allows us to operate from Fort Collins down to
Colorado Springs. We do a little bit of I seventy
not a ton and and just I want to be
completely transparent, we don't do much of anything in Boulder,
(13:33):
but outside of that, you know, we take listenings and
help buyers almost across the entire metro area, and we're
able to do that with the team model that we incorporate.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
Now, this listener is asking, and these are not places
that are near each other but somewhat out slightly outlying areas.
A listener is asking about Bennett, Larkspur, Firestone.
Speaker 3 (13:53):
Absolutely, absolutely all of that.
Speaker 4 (13:55):
I believe that we have listenings and barks for and
Bennett right now, and I think we have something going
live in Firestone this weekend.
Speaker 3 (14:05):
You know, we take our listenings live on Thursday.
Speaker 4 (14:07):
So those are areas that we cover and your you know,
it's interesting with those areas because we're seeing a lot
of developments, you know, as we push out and people
are wanting more and more, you know, some space, you
have some breathing room. And I think that that's been
sort of the theme since COVID in seeing people leave
(14:29):
that high density. In fact, the CBD, the Central Business District,
is having a very difficult time, you know, because of
that fact people just wanting to get some some space. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
And also, you know, land prices have gotten so expensive
that you need to go past the suburbs to the
exurbs for a lot of folks to get something you
can afford, especially maybe a first home for a young couple.
Kristin and I were out near Elizabeth in Elbert County
looking at trees we were looking at trees for the
you know, we're real landscaping there house that you've seen,
(15:01):
and boy, the number of developments out there, which is
I mean if you live in if you work in
Denver or in DTC or something, I mean like that's
a heck of a drive. But there are at least hundreds,
maybe thousands of units being built. So that leads to
my next question for you. And we just have a
couple of minutes left here. It seems like I feel
(15:26):
like I'm seeing the biggest increase in new construction supply
maybe since I've been in Colorado.
Speaker 1 (15:33):
Do you are you seeing something like that?
Speaker 2 (15:36):
And when you tie it in with the fact that
Colorado's population growth rate has slowed dramatically, do you think
we may end up in a situation where there is
truly over supply of housing.
Speaker 3 (15:52):
Well, I do.
Speaker 4 (15:53):
And it's interesting because if we're talking about you know,
areas that we just mentioned, you know, like you know, Bennett,
Larkspur or Elizabeth, you're absolutely right where you're seeing just
an incredible amount of development. And I think we are
absolutely on the verge of that because the same reason
that Colorado was so attractive for so long which was
(16:17):
the cost of living, has now become one of the
primary reasons that folks are taking off. And that's not
to say that, you know, people don't want to be here.
I mean I can't see us ever live leaving. I mean,
I'm a Colorado native. I love it, but you get it, Yeah,
you see it.
Speaker 3 (16:32):
It's tough.
Speaker 4 (16:33):
I think that an oversupply, especially of new housing in infill,
you know, so in higher density density areas, is unlikely.
Speaker 3 (16:42):
But you do see what's happening, you know, near and
around the.
Speaker 4 (16:45):
Airport in Green Valley Ranch, there is an incredible amount
of inventory. And what's interesting, Ross is the way that
the builders operate is they can incentivize differently. So if
you can imagine they are offering rates in the four
for thirty or fixed, if you can believe.
Speaker 3 (17:03):
It, because that's what they're having to do.
Speaker 4 (17:05):
I am astounded though, by just the number of housing starts,
because I have the same feeling.
Speaker 3 (17:12):
At some point you just can't keep up with it.
Speaker 4 (17:14):
I mean, especially if you don't have interest rates come down,
whether you offer the incentives or not.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
Ed Pray There's website is unsurprisingly Edprather dot com Ed
p R A. T.
Speaker 1 (17:25):
H e R dot com.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
If you're gonna sell a home, we don't even talk
about it that much. But Ed and his team are
happy to help you on the other side too, if
you're buying a home, happy to help you work on
any part of a real estate transaction. And as we
just discussed, he and his team cover are a very
wide geographic area around the Denver metro. Mandy, do you
want to say anything to Ed as long as he's
here other than can you you? Ah?
Speaker 4 (17:47):
Hi?
Speaker 3 (17:48):
Ed? Hi, Mandy, I'm so happy to hear your voice.
Speaker 5 (17:53):
Well, we got to get you on the show, but
I have to have some separation, nows you. We're on
this clown ross. I gotta get that stink off you Firs.
But obviously great information. So basically, it's a great time
to sell a house and it's a great time to
buy a house, but you better have the right reel
dor on both ends.
Speaker 3 (18:11):
Well, absolutely, you know, I think we need to remind ourselves.
Speaker 4 (18:14):
You know, house homes are selling every day, but we
just need to be very intentional. Throwing aside in the yard,
hoping for the best. Trusting a friend of a friend
who doesn't do any business at all is not the
way to do it. And on the buy side of things,
there are incredible deals. And to that point, we're going
to be watching this data very closely because to your point, Ross,
(18:34):
I think there's a good chance that we see that
media in close price slip. But right now you and
I both know that I am winning the best.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
And pray to dot com for all your help with
real estate. Thanks Ed, Thanks Ross, most pleasure. All Right,
we'll see you
The Ross Kaminsky Show News
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