Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
So I'm very careful about what I listened to, and
there are lots of podcasts I like, but they're not
very many podcasts that I like enough never to miss
an episode. My next guest, Dimitri Caffinis, is the proprietor
and host of an amazing podcast called Hidden Forces. The
website is Hiddenforces dot io. It is a must listen
(00:21):
and I must subscribe if you care not just about
you know, thinking about the world, but if you're really
interested in hearing from from voices, you will rarely hear
anywhere else.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
He gets some of the most amazing guests.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
I have to say, he gets some of the most
amazing guests, and some of them some of them are
people I hadn't even heard of, and they're just incredible.
And so I really love listening to Hidden Forces, and
Dmitri has kindly agreed to take some time out of
his day to join us for a big picture conversation today. So,
Hi Dimitri, thanks for being here. Hey Ross, it's my pleasure.
(00:55):
I would like to I would like to start with
the burning question of the day from.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
The show, and then we'll get into the podcast.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
Asked to your podcast from zero to ten with zero
being raw cookie dough and ten being the most you
could possibly cook a chocolate chip cookie and.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
Still be able to eat it. What is the optimal
level of.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
Cooking of the cookie dough for dimitry cafinis?
Speaker 3 (01:23):
Uh, well, that's a for interesting question, I guess. Uh,
I definitely would like it. I like everything more. I
like everything more raw than I like it cooked. So
that's not just true for cookies, it's true for meat.
It's true for everything. So some were below five, Okay,
fair enough.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
I'm around to three myself, So that's that's a good answer.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
That sounds about right. Actually, that's what That's the number
I actually would have would have said. So three, we're
in a quarters here.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
Do you think that enjoyment for lesser cooked stuff comes
from a Greek heritage or is that just a person opposite?
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Actually, a Greek people tend to overcook everything in my experience,
and actually when it comes to meat's a perfect example.
I grew up in a house where everything had to
be well done, and then when I moved and to
Italy where I worked and lived for some period of time,
I started eating raw, rare cooks of meat, and I
realized that, oh, actually, this is way better.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
All right. Now, let's get slightly more serious.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
For people who don't know you, I want to just
set a brief foundation of you, as you often do
with your guests, but just briefly, like twenty nine seconds
because I like prime numbers. What do my listeners need
to know about you and your background to have a
framework to understand what we're going to talk about next.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
Well, I mean, I'm sort of an autodide act and
I've always just followed my instincts on what I find interesting.
And I've always been an entrepreneur, and I've started companies
both on the product side of the business, so in
video game industry on the technology side, and application development
design working in the case industry. And then I had
(03:01):
a radio show, a TV show, I had a theater company.
So I'm just kind of like somebody that always has
just done lots of different things. But my curiosity has
always been my north star, and ever since I started
this podcast, I've just used it as a vehicle for
me to explore topics that interest me, and I find
experts who are really interesting and thoughtful that can speak
to those subjects, and I bring them on for two
hour long conversations.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
We just nerd out.
Speaker 1 (03:24):
Yeah, and I think listeners who know me know based
on Dimitri's description of his own podcast why I love
it so much. Because I'm a nerd and Dimitri and
I won't say we necessarily agree on everything, but that
isn't really the point. We very much share the list
of what issues we might say are the most important
(03:45):
things going on in the world, and DMITRII just brings
such interesting guests and conversations about all these things. Now,
before we get into specific issues, you were.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Talking in a recent episode.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
I forget which episode it was, because i've listened to it.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
I got a little behind.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
So I listen to a whole bunch in a row
about how you've had a little drift between pessimism and
optimism lately, and tell us a little about that.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
Which way are you drifting and why? You know?
Speaker 3 (04:14):
That's an interesting and timely question, because I think now
I have objective evidence to suggest that I've clearly become
more pessimistic. Because so, I have a mini podcast series
that I'm doing with Grant Williams where we both share
the series on our respective podcasts, and it is called
The one hundred Year pivot where we speak with people
about what we think are century you know, one hundred
(04:35):
year changes happening once in every few generations. And the
guest that's coming on the show tomorrow is Jonathan Kershner,
who had been on the Hidden Force podcast some years ago.
And I went back and I listened to that episode
and I listened to my introduction, and it was so hopeful,
and I was sort of appealing to the listeners and
appealing to the audience to say, like, we can do
something about these things that are these things that aren't
(04:57):
working in our life. We can change them. We have
the power, blah blah blah. And now I definitely have
drifted to a state of more pessimism. I don't think
it's pessimism Ross, honestly, I think it's acceptance.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
Like I think it's just acceptance.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
Of what the world where we are, what people seem
to want, and the fact that it just seems that
we need to go through this process that we're going through.
I guess that's the perspective I have now. I had
the perspective before of like, this is a problem, this
is what we need to do to fix it. Now
I'm like, this is a problem. We have to go
through this hell in order to sort of become the
people that were meant to be after we get through it.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
Okay, And a lot of times, folks, in conversations that
you hear Dmitri have with guests, or the occasional conversation
that Dmitri have offline when we're just talking or texting
or something.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
It delves.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
It drifts a bit into philosophy, which I love. And
so I'm not sure that my next question is exactly philosophical,
but I should have started with this when you say
you're drifting into pessimism, at least a little bit pessimism
about what exactly.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
I guess, you.
Speaker 3 (06:03):
Know, like here, here's I'll give you one maybe to
sort of focalize this a bit. I just finished the
conversation yesterday with someone who's a broad thinker. He's somewhat
of a philosopher, butody also thinks about geopolitical issues, and the.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Focus of the conversation was quote world building.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
So essentially, the United States was a builder of worlds
post World War Two. It helped build the international framework
upon which the Western world really existed throughout the Cold
War and subsequently, and it has now seemingly receded from
that responsibility, and in its place, someone else will necessarily
build the world. Now, maybe it's it's China, Maybe it's
(06:45):
a panoply of international corporations functioning alongside other sovereign states.
But I guess what I'm pessimistic about is the American
order and the liberal world order. And I'm concerned that
there is a kind of a arc energy that has
taken over in our world and we and and that,
(07:05):
and that we've sort of like exhausted our generative energy
to build a constructive universe. That's so much of the
language today in the political sphere is sort of built
and is couched in negatives, like you know, we have
to stop so and so, like we have to exclude
so and so, like it's it's.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
It's not it's not affirmative.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
And I think that I guess that speaks to one
of the sort of sources of my pessimism.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
And I'm with you on that.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
I I don't know that I would try to compare
degrees of pessimism. I in general, over most of my lifetime,
I have thought that there is something in the American
spirit that tends to overcome most things, And my concern
right now is that a generation or more of hardcore
leftists who are against most things that I believe in.
(07:56):
And I don't mean policy, I mean most principles that
I leave are are good and true and beautiful. These
people have been running especially higher education, for long enough
that I think a lot of the people, especially the
people who went to college, who are going to be
the people running things. I think that American spirit that I,
(08:17):
in my mind, have relied on to bring us out
of some of these downward moves where we get isolationists
or xenophobic or whatever. I just I'm less optimistic than
I used to be about that American spirit triumphing. I'm not,
I don't know, pessimistic, but I'm at least closer to
neutral than I've ever been. Well.
Speaker 3 (08:38):
I also think that we're in this place in America.
We don't know who we are, and until we figure
that out, we're not in a position to really express
loftier ambitions about what the world should look like. And
I don't know why we're in this place right now,
but it seems that we are. So that when you
tell me, for example, you know, like what you think
(09:01):
you were sort of somewhat externalizing this.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
Idea of like what American values are?
Speaker 3 (09:05):
I feel like we don't actually have a consensus view
of what that is and what it means to be
an American anymore. And I don't mean that in a
sense of immigration and in the sense of like genetic
archetypes of what does an American look like? I mean
in terms of like, what are the values, what does
it mean to be an American? What do we supportes,
what does an American form of governance look like? You know,
(09:26):
so many of the norms and values that we have
were being actively shattered. But again, to go back to
my point about the source of my pessimism, isn't the
destruction of those values that concerns me. It is the
lack of a positive, affirmative vision of the future that
concerns me.
Speaker 2 (09:43):
So all we're doing is destroying, but we're not creating.
That makes a lot of sense.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
I want to dig into some specific topics with you,
and again for those just joining, we're talking with Dimitri Caffinis.
His podcast is called Hidden Forces, and you should go
find it and subscribe to it. There's a lot of
different tiers of subscription, and as you go up. You
get more benefits if you get if you do the
Genius Tier, you get invited to essentially small online conversations
(10:15):
where you can do Q and A with these brilliant guests.
And you also will get invited to small group dinners.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
And I haven't been to one yet.
Speaker 1 (10:24):
But I mean, Dimitri has done South America and Europe
and the US, and I don't know where else, and
I really got to get to one. And that's if
you subscribe at the Genius tier. You know, at the
risk of free advertising. Do you want to add anything
to what I just said, Dimitri, Ah.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
You're so kind throughout. No, No, that's fine. Ross.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
People can learn more about that at Hiddenforces dot io.
But thank you for your kind words Hiddenforces dot Io.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
I've been catching up a little bit on the stuff
you're doing with Grant Williams, who's super interesting, and this
thing that's coming up a lot, and I think in
the most recent episode as well with the economic historian. Dude,
is this thing you talk about called one hundred year pivot?
Speaker 2 (11:03):
What is that?
Speaker 3 (11:06):
The one hundred year pivot is a term that we
co developed with Grant to describe this moment in time
which we think is a moment that comes around every
once every few centuries, maybe once every few generations, maybe
like every once every eighty or one hundred years. And
because in some sense, you know, human history is cyclical,
(11:29):
and that we want to try and understand it to
the best that we can, and also to the extent
that we do understand it to be able to position ourselves,
our families, and our portfolios to navigate it as effectively
as possible. So that's what that's where the that's where
the pivot component comes in. What do we do about it?
Speaker 1 (11:48):
One of the things again, and I was actually listening
to this conversation your podcast this morning while I was
walking my dog, was how the interest rate environment has
changed a lot, and we've gone to from the early
days like gold standard days, and even much much older days.
Speaker 2 (12:08):
Than that, even before there was a United States.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
Perhaps we've gone to a period of time with higher
highs and lower lows on interest rates.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
Why does that matter? Why does it matter that interest
rates are going up?
Speaker 1 (12:21):
You're asking, why does it matter that the range of
interest rates has become what it has become in modern
times where you could get fed funds close to twenty
percent and also zero over the course of generation.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
I see, So, how did we go from close to
twenty percent of the FED funds rate in the early
eighties to where we are today?
Speaker 2 (12:41):
Or where we were? I mean, I don't mean how
did we get there?
Speaker 1 (12:45):
What I mean is what is the significance of the
fact that it's possible for interest rates to have a
range like that when it seems like it didn't used
to be possible for interest rates to have a range
like that.
Speaker 3 (12:55):
Well, I don't know that that it wasn't possible that
interest rates didn't I mean, I think, I think what
I would say is that traditionally interest rates have been
very volatile. It's only been in the modern era, during
the period of the Great Moderation I would get, say,
sometime after the nineteen eighty seven crash to some time
before the pandemic, that we've experienced this incredibly low volatility
(13:20):
in interest rates.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
And I think that and I have always made the case.
Speaker 3 (13:23):
You know, going back to my time in television, that
the reduction of interest rate volatility increases the instability of
credit markets because it increases the propensity of market participants
to take risks. So it isn't just having low interest
rates that encourages risk. It is interest rate stability, interest
(13:46):
rate non volatility that encourages risk because market participants have
this unreasonable expectation that they should be able to source
credit at a predictable price.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
And so I.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
Think that, I mean, I don't know that answers your question,
but I so I get so the answer to your
question is, I don't I don't know that. I don't
know that the range of interest rates is the thing
that's notable about the period that we've lived in, or
something we should we should be concerned about.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
I think that what what what I would.
Speaker 3 (14:16):
Say is concerning and is notable isn't even necessarily the
reduction in the price of money or the interest rate,
the historical reduction since the since the early eighties. I
would say that it is the socialization of the American economy.
And if we want to talk specifically about interest rates,
then we would want to focus on the Federal reserve
(14:38):
and the that has that has been through all the
forms of innovation related to monetary policy, beginning with the
targeting of interest rates, which again this wasn't a policy.
Speaker 2 (14:49):
In the American experience.
Speaker 3 (14:50):
The federal reserves created to support credit markets during periods
of cyclical stress, to be there as a as a
lender of last resort. But it wasn't even intended to
set the interest rate, let alone telemarkets what that interest
rate is, let alone conduct all forms of forward guidance
and balance sheet expansion in order to accommodate the banking
(15:11):
system on a perpetual basis. So I think that is
to me, what is notable the extent to which the
American form of capitalism has become socialized.
Speaker 2 (15:20):
That's a great answer.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
It's a deep answer that requires a whole bigger conversation
and probably is a whole bigger conversation at one of
your Genius Tier dinners. We're talking with Dimitri Caffinis. The
website Hiddenforces dot io. The podcast is Hidden Forces. It
is an absolute must listen. Seriously, I'm going to ask
you one more, one last question because we just have
(15:44):
a few minutes left and you probably haven't gotten this
one too many times. I don't know how many people
interview you, because usually you're doing the interviewing. How has
your view on any of this kind of stuff that
we are talking about, other than the proper degree of
cooking of a chocolate chip cookie changed by your becoming
(16:06):
a parent?
Speaker 2 (16:10):
Oh, interesting question, you know, I don't know that it's changed.
Speaker 3 (16:13):
I you know, even before I became a father, I
always not I don't know always, but I cared about
other people's children, and I had a sense of responsibility
around what I had a sense that, you know, I
was the inheritor of, you know, the wealth of my experiences,
(16:37):
of the world I've lived in that I had certain responsibilities.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
To give back.
Speaker 3 (16:41):
So I don't know that becoming a parent has it
further invested me in the future and the future beyond
my life. I've always felt a sense of responsibility for
those that come after me.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
That's a super interesting answer, and a laudable one, and.
Speaker 2 (16:58):
I'm not being sarcastic here.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
It's not an answer I could give, right Becoming a
parent changed me a lot, even in terms.
Speaker 2 (17:07):
Of thinking about government policy.
Speaker 1 (17:08):
Rightly, I never liked big spending and big national dad
and all this.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
But then you.
Speaker 1 (17:14):
Become a parent and you realize these people are stealing
our children's future standard of living, and it really came
to upset me even more.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
And then things sort.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
Of outside of politics, you know, it used to be
you'd see or hear some bad story about a child
getting hurt or killed, and before you're a parent, you know,
you think, oh, that's sad, and then when you are
a parent, you know, depending on the story. It got
me to a point where sometimes I'll like see the
beginning of the headline and I'll just shut it down,
like I can't even read that, And I think that's interesting.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
Paradoxically, the becoming a parent has done less to change
my view of the future and the extent of which
I'm concerned about it, and it's done more to endear
me to the past and to the.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
People that came before me.
Speaker 3 (18:01):
I think much more about my parents, my grandparents, the
people that came before them, and you know what, you know,
I guess what really matters in terms of a human
life and human experiences and what is it?
Speaker 2 (18:16):
What's the sacred space that I want to grave for
my children. That's great, That's just absolutely great.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
And folks, I think you can understand from that why
I like this guy so much. And you know, he
doesn't tend to get this personal in his podcasts, but
now you understand the mindset that guides why he's talking
about what he's talking about how he talks about it
and why I like Hidden Forces so much. Hidden Forces
dot Io Dmitri. It's probably full already. But when and
(18:43):
where is the next Genius level dinner.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
Our next dinner is in New York City in September.
Then we've got another dinner in Miami in December, and
then we're working on two week under retreats for the
following year.
Speaker 2 (18:55):
Of course we'll have all those other dinners, but we
have one week of.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Retreat that we're going to do on a Greek island
and another one that we're going to try and do,
probably somewhere in the Caribbean.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
Wow, you know, I don't.
Speaker 1 (19:07):
I guess a lot of you know, your genius people
will come see you from anywhere. I would love to
get you here in Colorado, whether in Denver for a
regular dinner or out in one of the mountain towns.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
You know, we find a place.
Speaker 1 (19:20):
Out byby in Veil Veil Steamboat, any of these places
for more of a weekend retreat kind of thing. I
would love to help you organize one. If you ever
want to get out here, I'd love to help.
Speaker 3 (19:31):
It's a great place, it's a great place to do
one I might take you up on that.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
Folks, go to Hiddenforces dot io and learn more there,
or just go into your podcast app and search for
the Hidden Forces podcast. It'll make you smarter, it'll make
you more interesting, and it'll make you more interested in
the world around you. Dimitri, thank you so much for
making some time for me. I know you're busy and
you're a dad and all that, so I'm really grateful.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
I'm grateful as well. Thank you. Thank you for having
on Ross
So I'm very careful about what I listened to, and
there are lots of podcasts I like, but they're not
very many podcasts that I like enough never to miss
an episode. My next guest, Dimitri Caffinis, is the proprietor
and host of an amazing podcast called Hidden Forces. The
website is Hiddenforces dot io. It is a must listen
(00:21):
and I must subscribe if you care not just about
you know, thinking about the world, but if you're really
interested in hearing from from voices, you will rarely hear
anywhere else.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
He gets some of the most amazing guests.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
I have to say, he gets some of the most
amazing guests, and some of them some of them are
people I hadn't even heard of, and they're just incredible.
And so I really love listening to Hidden Forces, and
Dmitri has kindly agreed to take some time out of
his day to join us for a big picture conversation today. So,
Hi Dimitri, thanks for being here. Hey Ross, it's my pleasure.
(00:55):
I would like to I would like to start with
the burning question of the day from.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
The show, and then we'll get into the podcast.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
Asked to your podcast from zero to ten with zero
being raw cookie dough and ten being the most you
could possibly cook a chocolate chip cookie and.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
Still be able to eat it. What is the optimal
level of.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
Cooking of the cookie dough for dimitry cafinis?
Speaker 3 (01:23):
Uh, well, that's a for interesting question, I guess. Uh,
I definitely would like it. I like everything more. I
like everything more raw than I like it cooked. So
that's not just true for cookies, it's true for meat.
It's true for everything. So some were below five, Okay,
fair enough.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
I'm around to three myself, So that's that's a good answer.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
That sounds about right. Actually, that's what That's the number
I actually would have would have said. So three, we're
in a quarters here.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
Do you think that enjoyment for lesser cooked stuff comes
from a Greek heritage or is that just a person opposite?
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Actually, a Greek people tend to overcook everything in my experience,
and actually when it comes to meat's a perfect example.
I grew up in a house where everything had to
be well done, and then when I moved and to
Italy where I worked and lived for some period of time,
I started eating raw, rare cooks of meat, and I
realized that, oh, actually, this is way better.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
All right. Now, let's get slightly more serious.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
For people who don't know you, I want to just
set a brief foundation of you, as you often do
with your guests, but just briefly, like twenty nine seconds
because I like prime numbers. What do my listeners need
to know about you and your background to have a
framework to understand what we're going to talk about next.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
Well, I mean, I'm sort of an autodide act and
I've always just followed my instincts on what I find interesting.
And I've always been an entrepreneur, and I've started companies
both on the product side of the business, so in
video game industry on the technology side, and application development
design working in the case industry. And then I had
(03:01):
a radio show, a TV show, I had a theater company.
So I'm just kind of like somebody that always has
just done lots of different things. But my curiosity has
always been my north star, and ever since I started
this podcast, I've just used it as a vehicle for
me to explore topics that interest me, and I find
experts who are really interesting and thoughtful that can speak
to those subjects, and I bring them on for two
hour long conversations.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
We just nerd out.
Speaker 1 (03:24):
Yeah, and I think listeners who know me know based
on Dimitri's description of his own podcast why I love
it so much. Because I'm a nerd and Dimitri and
I won't say we necessarily agree on everything, but that
isn't really the point. We very much share the list
of what issues we might say are the most important
(03:45):
things going on in the world, and DMITRII just brings
such interesting guests and conversations about all these things. Now,
before we get into specific issues, you were.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Talking in a recent episode.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
I forget which episode it was, because i've listened to it.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
I got a little behind.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
So I listen to a whole bunch in a row
about how you've had a little drift between pessimism and
optimism lately, and tell us a little about that.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
Which way are you drifting and why? You know?
Speaker 3 (04:14):
That's an interesting and timely question, because I think now
I have objective evidence to suggest that I've clearly become
more pessimistic. Because so, I have a mini podcast series
that I'm doing with Grant Williams where we both share
the series on our respective podcasts, and it is called
The one hundred Year pivot where we speak with people
about what we think are century you know, one hundred
(04:35):
year changes happening once in every few generations. And the
guest that's coming on the show tomorrow is Jonathan Kershner,
who had been on the Hidden Force podcast some years ago.
And I went back and I listened to that episode
and I listened to my introduction, and it was so hopeful,
and I was sort of appealing to the listeners and
appealing to the audience to say, like, we can do
something about these things that are these things that aren't
(04:57):
working in our life. We can change them. We have
the power, blah blah blah. And now I definitely have
drifted to a state of more pessimism. I don't think
it's pessimism Ross, honestly, I think it's acceptance.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
Like I think it's just acceptance.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
Of what the world where we are, what people seem
to want, and the fact that it just seems that
we need to go through this process that we're going through.
I guess that's the perspective I have now. I had
the perspective before of like, this is a problem, this
is what we need to do to fix it. Now
I'm like, this is a problem. We have to go
through this hell in order to sort of become the
people that were meant to be after we get through it.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
Okay, And a lot of times, folks, in conversations that
you hear Dmitri have with guests, or the occasional conversation
that Dmitri have offline when we're just talking or texting
or something.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
It delves.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
It drifts a bit into philosophy, which I love. And
so I'm not sure that my next question is exactly philosophical,
but I should have started with this when you say
you're drifting into pessimism, at least a little bit pessimism
about what exactly.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
I guess, you.
Speaker 3 (06:03):
Know, like here, here's I'll give you one maybe to
sort of focalize this a bit. I just finished the
conversation yesterday with someone who's a broad thinker. He's somewhat
of a philosopher, butody also thinks about geopolitical issues, and the.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Focus of the conversation was quote world building.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
So essentially, the United States was a builder of worlds
post World War Two. It helped build the international framework
upon which the Western world really existed throughout the Cold
War and subsequently, and it has now seemingly receded from
that responsibility, and in its place, someone else will necessarily
build the world. Now, maybe it's it's China, Maybe it's
(06:45):
a panoply of international corporations functioning alongside other sovereign states.
But I guess what I'm pessimistic about is the American
order and the liberal world order. And I'm concerned that
there is a kind of a arc energy that has
taken over in our world and we and and that,
(07:05):
and that we've sort of like exhausted our generative energy
to build a constructive universe. That's so much of the
language today in the political sphere is sort of built
and is couched in negatives, like you know, we have
to stop so and so, like we have to exclude
so and so, like it's it's.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
It's not it's not affirmative.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
And I think that I guess that speaks to one
of the sort of sources of my pessimism.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
And I'm with you on that.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
I I don't know that I would try to compare
degrees of pessimism. I in general, over most of my lifetime,
I have thought that there is something in the American
spirit that tends to overcome most things, And my concern
right now is that a generation or more of hardcore
leftists who are against most things that I believe in.
(07:56):
And I don't mean policy, I mean most principles that
I leave are are good and true and beautiful. These
people have been running especially higher education, for long enough
that I think a lot of the people, especially the
people who went to college, who are going to be
the people running things. I think that American spirit that I,
(08:17):
in my mind, have relied on to bring us out
of some of these downward moves where we get isolationists
or xenophobic or whatever. I just I'm less optimistic than
I used to be about that American spirit triumphing. I'm not,
I don't know, pessimistic, but I'm at least closer to
neutral than I've ever been. Well.
Speaker 3 (08:38):
I also think that we're in this place in America.
We don't know who we are, and until we figure
that out, we're not in a position to really express
loftier ambitions about what the world should look like. And
I don't know why we're in this place right now,
but it seems that we are. So that when you
tell me, for example, you know, like what you think
(09:01):
you were sort of somewhat externalizing this.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
Idea of like what American values are?
Speaker 3 (09:05):
I feel like we don't actually have a consensus view
of what that is and what it means to be
an American anymore. And I don't mean that in a
sense of immigration and in the sense of like genetic
archetypes of what does an American look like? I mean
in terms of like, what are the values, what does
it mean to be an American? What do we supportes,
what does an American form of governance look like? You know,
(09:26):
so many of the norms and values that we have
were being actively shattered. But again, to go back to
my point about the source of my pessimism, isn't the
destruction of those values that concerns me. It is the
lack of a positive, affirmative vision of the future that
concerns me.
Speaker 2 (09:43):
So all we're doing is destroying, but we're not creating.
That makes a lot of sense.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
I want to dig into some specific topics with you,
and again for those just joining, we're talking with Dimitri Caffinis.
His podcast is called Hidden Forces, and you should go
find it and subscribe to it. There's a lot of
different tiers of subscription, and as you go up. You
get more benefits if you get if you do the
Genius Tier, you get invited to essentially small online conversations
(10:15):
where you can do Q and A with these brilliant guests.
And you also will get invited to small group dinners.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
And I haven't been to one yet.
Speaker 1 (10:24):
But I mean, Dimitri has done South America and Europe
and the US, and I don't know where else, and
I really got to get to one. And that's if
you subscribe at the Genius tier. You know, at the
risk of free advertising. Do you want to add anything
to what I just said, Dimitri, Ah.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
You're so kind throughout. No, No, that's fine. Ross.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
People can learn more about that at Hiddenforces dot io.
But thank you for your kind words Hiddenforces dot Io.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
I've been catching up a little bit on the stuff
you're doing with Grant Williams, who's super interesting, and this
thing that's coming up a lot, and I think in
the most recent episode as well with the economic historian. Dude,
is this thing you talk about called one hundred year pivot?
Speaker 2 (11:03):
What is that?
Speaker 3 (11:06):
The one hundred year pivot is a term that we
co developed with Grant to describe this moment in time
which we think is a moment that comes around every
once every few centuries, maybe once every few generations, maybe
like every once every eighty or one hundred years. And
because in some sense, you know, human history is cyclical,
(11:29):
and that we want to try and understand it to
the best that we can, and also to the extent
that we do understand it to be able to position ourselves,
our families, and our portfolios to navigate it as effectively
as possible. So that's what that's where the that's where
the pivot component comes in. What do we do about it?
Speaker 1 (11:48):
One of the things again, and I was actually listening
to this conversation your podcast this morning while I was
walking my dog, was how the interest rate environment has
changed a lot, and we've gone to from the early
days like gold standard days, and even much much older days.
Speaker 2 (12:08):
Than that, even before there was a United States.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
Perhaps we've gone to a period of time with higher
highs and lower lows on interest rates.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
Why does that matter? Why does it matter that interest
rates are going up?
Speaker 1 (12:21):
You're asking, why does it matter that the range of
interest rates has become what it has become in modern
times where you could get fed funds close to twenty
percent and also zero over the course of generation.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
I see, So, how did we go from close to
twenty percent of the FED funds rate in the early
eighties to where we are today?
Speaker 2 (12:41):
Or where we were? I mean, I don't mean how
did we get there?
Speaker 1 (12:45):
What I mean is what is the significance of the
fact that it's possible for interest rates to have a
range like that when it seems like it didn't used
to be possible for interest rates to have a range
like that.
Speaker 3 (12:55):
Well, I don't know that that it wasn't possible that
interest rates didn't I mean, I think, I think what
I would say is that traditionally interest rates have been
very volatile. It's only been in the modern era, during
the period of the Great Moderation I would get, say,
sometime after the nineteen eighty seven crash to some time
before the pandemic, that we've experienced this incredibly low volatility
(13:20):
in interest rates.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
And I think that and I have always made the case.
Speaker 3 (13:23):
You know, going back to my time in television, that
the reduction of interest rate volatility increases the instability of
credit markets because it increases the propensity of market participants
to take risks. So it isn't just having low interest
rates that encourages risk. It is interest rate stability, interest
(13:46):
rate non volatility that encourages risk because market participants have
this unreasonable expectation that they should be able to source
credit at a predictable price.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
And so I.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
Think that, I mean, I don't know that answers your question,
but I so I get so the answer to your
question is, I don't I don't know that. I don't
know that the range of interest rates is the thing
that's notable about the period that we've lived in, or
something we should we should be concerned about.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
I think that what what what I would.
Speaker 3 (14:16):
Say is concerning and is notable isn't even necessarily the
reduction in the price of money or the interest rate,
the historical reduction since the since the early eighties. I
would say that it is the socialization of the American economy.
And if we want to talk specifically about interest rates,
then we would want to focus on the Federal reserve
(14:38):
and the that has that has been through all the
forms of innovation related to monetary policy, beginning with the
targeting of interest rates, which again this wasn't a policy.
Speaker 2 (14:49):
In the American experience.
Speaker 3 (14:50):
The federal reserves created to support credit markets during periods
of cyclical stress, to be there as a as a
lender of last resort. But it wasn't even intended to
set the interest rate, let alone telemarkets what that interest
rate is, let alone conduct all forms of forward guidance
and balance sheet expansion in order to accommodate the banking
(15:11):
system on a perpetual basis. So I think that is
to me, what is notable the extent to which the
American form of capitalism has become socialized.
Speaker 2 (15:20):
That's a great answer.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
It's a deep answer that requires a whole bigger conversation
and probably is a whole bigger conversation at one of
your Genius Tier dinners. We're talking with Dimitri Caffinis. The
website Hiddenforces dot io. The podcast is Hidden Forces. It
is an absolute must listen. Seriously, I'm going to ask
you one more, one last question because we just have
(15:44):
a few minutes left and you probably haven't gotten this
one too many times. I don't know how many people
interview you, because usually you're doing the interviewing. How has
your view on any of this kind of stuff that
we are talking about, other than the proper degree of
cooking of a chocolate chip cookie changed by your becoming
(16:06):
a parent?
Speaker 2 (16:10):
Oh, interesting question, you know, I don't know that it's changed.
Speaker 3 (16:13):
I you know, even before I became a father, I
always not I don't know always, but I cared about
other people's children, and I had a sense of responsibility
around what I had a sense that, you know, I
was the inheritor of, you know, the wealth of my experiences,
(16:37):
of the world I've lived in that I had certain responsibilities.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
To give back.
Speaker 3 (16:41):
So I don't know that becoming a parent has it
further invested me in the future and the future beyond
my life. I've always felt a sense of responsibility for
those that come after me.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
That's a super interesting answer, and a laudable one, and.
Speaker 2 (16:58):
I'm not being sarcastic here.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
It's not an answer I could give, right Becoming a
parent changed me a lot, even in terms.
Speaker 2 (17:07):
Of thinking about government policy.
Speaker 1 (17:08):
Rightly, I never liked big spending and big national dad
and all this.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
But then you.
Speaker 1 (17:14):
Become a parent and you realize these people are stealing
our children's future standard of living, and it really came
to upset me even more.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
And then things sort.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
Of outside of politics, you know, it used to be
you'd see or hear some bad story about a child
getting hurt or killed, and before you're a parent, you know,
you think, oh, that's sad, and then when you are
a parent, you know, depending on the story. It got
me to a point where sometimes I'll like see the
beginning of the headline and I'll just shut it down,
like I can't even read that, And I think that's interesting.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
Paradoxically, the becoming a parent has done less to change
my view of the future and the extent of which
I'm concerned about it, and it's done more to endear
me to the past and to the.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
People that came before me.
Speaker 3 (18:01):
I think much more about my parents, my grandparents, the
people that came before them, and you know what, you know,
I guess what really matters in terms of a human
life and human experiences and what is it?
Speaker 2 (18:16):
What's the sacred space that I want to grave for
my children. That's great, That's just absolutely great.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
And folks, I think you can understand from that why
I like this guy so much. And you know, he
doesn't tend to get this personal in his podcasts, but
now you understand the mindset that guides why he's talking
about what he's talking about how he talks about it
and why I like Hidden Forces so much. Hidden Forces
dot Io Dmitri. It's probably full already. But when and
(18:43):
where is the next Genius level dinner.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
Our next dinner is in New York City in September.
Then we've got another dinner in Miami in December, and
then we're working on two week under retreats for the
following year.
Speaker 2 (18:55):
Of course we'll have all those other dinners, but we
have one week of.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Retreat that we're going to do on a Greek island
and another one that we're going to try and do,
probably somewhere in the Caribbean.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
Wow, you know, I don't.
Speaker 1 (19:07):
I guess a lot of you know, your genius people
will come see you from anywhere. I would love to
get you here in Colorado, whether in Denver for a
regular dinner or out in one of the mountain towns.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
You know, we find a place.
Speaker 1 (19:20):
Out byby in Veil Veil Steamboat, any of these places
for more of a weekend retreat kind of thing. I
would love to help you organize one. If you ever
want to get out here, I'd love to help.
Speaker 3 (19:31):
It's a great place, it's a great place to do
one I might take you up on that.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
Folks, go to Hiddenforces dot io and learn more there,
or just go into your podcast app and search for
the Hidden Forces podcast. It'll make you smarter, it'll make
you more interesting, and it'll make you more interested in
the world around you. Dimitri, thank you so much for
making some time for me. I know you're busy and
you're a dad and all that, so I'm really grateful.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
I'm grateful as well. Thank you. Thank you for having
on Ross
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