Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
From the brilliant comedian Stephen Wright. And this is about
a time that he got on the bus and sat
down next to a gorgeous blonde Chinese girl.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
And this is the rest of the story.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
And she said, well, I've just come back for my
analyst and he's still unable to help me. Nice, what's
the problem? And she paused and said, I'm a nymphomaniac
and I only get turned on my Jewish cowboys. Then
she said, by the way, my name is Diane. And
I said, hello, Diane, I'm Bucky goldst.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Mm hmm, there you go.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
I hope you under I hope you understood that I
won't I won't say what it was again. So, uh,
my next guest Bucky Goldstein a Jewish cowboy. No, his
name is Jordan Levi Levy, And I said, and uh.
And Jordan is CEO of Arcadia Asset Management. And you
might not have heard of Arcadia Asset Management, but they
they owned five Rivers cattle Feeding, which is the largest
(01:03):
cattle feeding operation.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
In the entire world. So there's a very big deal.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Nobody's nobody knows more about the price of beef at
the supermarket than Jordan does. And it's something I've wanted
to talk with him about for for quite some time.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
He's a busy dude, but he made time for us today.
So what's up there, Bucky.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
Good to see you.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
ROSA glad to do it, very glad to do it.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
So you and I talked a while back.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
More like kind of COVID sort of time frame or
issues going on with labor shortages at the processing facilities and.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Stuff like that, and I I kind of thought then
when that when.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
COVID settled out, settled down, the price of beef would
go down. Uh, And it definitely hasn't. And of course
other things happened either. Beef isn't alone in that. But
can you can you tell us why why is beef
so expensive?
Speaker 5 (02:00):
I think fundamentally speaking, we have the smallest cowherd since
the nineteen fifties, and while we can produce more with
less and we have. If you look at total tonnage,
it's about equal to a year ago and twenty four
was equal to twenty twenty three. But people want the product,
and I think that's the most amazing part. So as
(02:23):
we're producing more tonnage with less head, we are finding
insatiable demand from the consumers. And that's for a variety
of reasons.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
Okay, so I'm trying to understand produce more with less,
So I'm just in my non expert brain, I think
of a few possibilities.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Producing more meat with fewer cows.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
Either means you're cutting them differently, and I sort of
doubt that because cutting was probably pretty efficient already.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
The cows are bigger maybe.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
Or maybe there's something where there's a higher survival like
a lower attrition rate of cattle, so a bigger percentage
of them are making it all the way to becoming
food bo So what is it.
Speaker 5 (03:05):
It's ultimately the amount of pounds we're putting on the animal.
It's one of the best sustainability stories in agriculture is
the fact that we can produce more beef today with
the same amount of cattle that we had in the
nineteen fifties. And I think that that's the great part
of the story, which is the weights are getting bigger
due to genetics and more precision feed stuffs, and so
(03:29):
the producer is doing all they can to help meet
the demand of the consumer who just loves beef right now,
whether it's Maha or the greater adaptation of glp ones.
People want protein, and they want the highest quality, best
tasting protein, and that protein is beef.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
Wow. Okay, so what about the cost of feed?
Speaker 1 (03:54):
Right, Grain prices can be highly variable, although I haven't
heard a lot about a lot of volatility in grain
prices lately, but there have been times, and you and
I have a mutual friend who was, you know, pretty
big involved in in all this stuff and trading the
grains and all, there have been times when the stuff
you might feed the cows got very expensive and that
(04:14):
might make the cows more expensive. Is that happening now
or is feed pricing kind of under control?
Speaker 5 (04:20):
No?
Speaker 4 (04:20):
Quite the opposite ross.
Speaker 5 (04:21):
In fact, we're putting in kind of contract lows and
corn the last couple of days, and so the cost
to put on additional pounds is not as expensive as
it has been in the past. Which is part of
the reason that the weights have increased so much, is
that you know, the grain farmer has made it, has
made their product. There are input cheap, and as a result,
(04:45):
we're able to increase weights to help satiate that demand.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
So I'm president of bad Analogy Club.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
I'm going to throw something at you, and I want
you to tell me if it's reasonable. The airline into
for many years, was famously volatile when it came to
their finances, and you'd have airlines with some frequency going bankrupt.
And one of the things the airlines did in recent
years to try to deal with that, and with great success,
(05:17):
is to massively cut.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
The number of flights that are available.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
So now instead of five flights a day to DC,
there are three, And instead of five flights a day
being sixty percent full, there are three flights a day
that are one hundred percent full. Is that a similar
dynamic to why there are fewer head of cattle or
is there another reason or multiple reasons.
Speaker 5 (05:39):
I wish our industry was that sophisticated, but that's not
how it works. Ultimately, we buy cattle from the cowcaf producer.
The cowcaf producer is the picture the beautiful ranches post COVID.
The economics were terrible and so they had to liquidate
heard and then in addition drought said in Keek how
(06:01):
caf areas. And so when you have poor economics and
poor drought, you have to liquidate your herd. And by
the time that that hits the market, which is where
we are today. The signal is to start rebuilding the herd,
and we can't rebuild the herd and get you a
steak tomorrow. And so unfortunately, the supply situation gets tighter
(06:23):
before it gets looser. As we bring young females out
of the production chain, we breathe them, and sadly, it's
about a year from the time we take a heifer
a female out of out of meat production and bringing
a steak on the plate. So I guess the good
(06:44):
news is is that I think the industry is starting
to show signs of life in terms of bringing more
animals to market. The bad news is it takes a
long time to bring you an animal that ultimately is
a great steak or a wonderful a wonderful, wonderful.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
We're talking with Jordan Leavy.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
He is CEO of Arcadia Asset Management and Arcadia owns
Five Rivers Cattle Feeding, which is the largest cattle feeding
operation in the world. So let's talk about this from
the perspective either of the rancher who's selling you the cows,
and then also from your perspective it is it better
for them, is it better for you to sell fewer
(07:26):
cows for a higher price or more cows for a
lower prices. Is it an easily calculable thing? Like where
it might be better to like, how do you decide
between selling ten million at fifteen dollars a pound and
fifteen million a ten dollars a pound.
Speaker 5 (07:41):
Yeah, we've got some really smart PhDs in the office
that help us make those calculations. I would tell you
from where I sit, I like abundant supplies. The reason
I like abundant supplies is there's less volatility in the
market and we keep our consumers happy. And we need
to keep our consumers happy so that we have a
long tail of demand. Don't want to blip on the
radar of just demand for a year or two. We
(08:03):
want to make consumers eat beef for the rest of
their lives and then build consumers both domestically and globally
to consume our beef. I think it's important to also
note that one of the reasons that the supply situation
is so tight, it's not just the domestic supply. The
domestic supply, as I mentioned, is the titus. Since the
nineteen fifties, tariffs have also reduced the amount of beef
(08:26):
coming into the US. In addition, New World screw worm,
which is really important. It's a parasite that's been found
in Mexico and had been eradicated over forty fifty years ago,
is back and as a result, we've closed the border
between the United States and Mexico from bringing cattle supplies
(08:47):
from Mexico into the United States. So the combination of
our tight herd plus the border being shut, plus the
tariffs is creating a very tight supply situation at the time.
We never seen the consumer want our product more. We
hear the signals from the consumer, and we're doing everything
we can to increase supply, both in headcount and in tonnage. Unfortunately,
(09:11):
the head count takes a while to to materialize.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
Yeah, and you know, I only ever traded commodities a
little bit. I trade mostly stock options and stuff like that.
So I traded soybeans and corn for like a few
weeks on the board of trades.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
I don't know this.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
I don't know this stuff very well, but it does
seem to me that it's it's a little bit surprising,
let's say, to have super tight markets in cattle while
setting contract lows in corn.
Speaker 4 (09:42):
It is.
Speaker 5 (09:43):
It is certainly an anomaly. There is no doubt. Generally speaking,
the rising tide lifts all boats. But I think that
speaks to the demand side. Ross and I've been trying
to give you the alley oop here, But the demand
side is the real, real, beautiful story here, Yeah, is
that consumers want our beef. And I think part of
that reason is this huge adaptation or adoption excuse me
(10:04):
of GLP once.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
Indeed, so much conversation about people It's been going on
for a while, but accelerating lately, with people aiming towards
higher protein diets, lower carb diets and all this stuff,
and protein is becoming bigger and bigger and bigger, and
beef is certainly a beneficiary. And so it's kind of
hard to tease out because there's so many things going
on at the same time, it's kind of hard to
(10:27):
tease out what exactly is causing how much of the
price rise or the lack of price decline or whatever.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
How much do you And when I say you, now, I.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
Mean the industry worry that when a ribbi goes from
nine dollars a pound to seventeen dollars a pound, that
people who have been beefeeders. We'll start thinking a little
bit more about chicken or pork, and then maybe even
if beef comes down, they'll be like a you know,
I kind of like the pork, not sure if I'll
(10:58):
come back. Is that a kind of thing that concerns you,
as being such a big player in the industry.
Speaker 5 (11:05):
Sure, if I put my economist hat on, or if
I was sitting next to my chief of staff over
at the office, he would tell you the most important
economic sinignal is disposable income. And so we watched that
like a hawk. And so we're starting to hear stories
about early signs of recession, and then the consumer will
ultimately trade down to a different protein. I like to
(11:29):
believe that we offer the most tastiest protein or animal
protein out there, and that the consumer ultimately comes back.
We also have to remember that beef is being consumed
more at home than at the restaurants in this post
COVID atmosphere, and so beef is significantly cheaper in their
pocket eating it at home relative to eating it at
(11:52):
a restaurant. And so, but the bottom line is ross
to answer your question, you know, doubling the price of
a Rabbi certainly does scare us, Yes, which is why
I think the industry is beginning to respond to the
economic signals. It's making cattle bigger because the inputs are cheaper,
but the signal is there, and ultimately we're beginning that
(12:12):
rebuild process.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
All right, let me just switch gears with you for
a moment.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
And this might be a little bit outside of what
five rivers specifically does, but I'm sure you know all
the answers. And this came from a colleague of mine
wanted me to ask you this when I told him
you were you were going to be on. Can you
please tell us what wag you means and what American
wag you means and then maybe just talk about that
segment of the market a little bit.
Speaker 5 (12:37):
Yeah, So wagu and American wag you means delicious. That's
a Joe brows But Wagu beef and American wag you
be it's generally speaking, wag you beef is produced in Japan,
uh and American wagu beef is produced in the United States.
That American wag you beef is generally fifty to fifty
(12:58):
one percent Wagu and the other like let's say the
father is wagu, a wagoo bull and either an angus
or a different breed of cow, and so it is
predominantly wago because it's greater than fifty percent. We're big,
big proponents of American wago. We're large producers of it,
(13:18):
and those of you that haven't tried it, I highly
recommend it, and I think once you try it, you'll
never trade the pork.
Speaker 4 (13:24):
Ever, we're chicken.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
What's better about it?
Speaker 5 (13:28):
It has a tremendous fat and flavor profile that you
cannot always get from a prime steak. It's so rich,
and so think of it as dark chocolate versus milk chocolate.
Both are delicious, but sometimes you want to create that
dark chocolate because you want that richness.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Last question for you, Jordan, and going back to our
previous topic, if if you were a betting man, give
me right now a price for a benchmark grade of
beef that everybody in your industry would be talking about
in terms of dollars per pound.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
What's just some benchmark number.
Speaker 5 (14:04):
Yeah, So today we're selling beef cattle at about two
dollars and forty cents a pound, which would be a
record futures the exchange is posting around two thirty five.
We had a meeting yesterday and I said two fifty
before two twenty Wow. So I think we'll put kind
of a cycle high here in the next I don't know,
(14:27):
between now and the middle of first quarter of twenty six,
and we'll see live cattle prices at two dollars and
fifty cents a pound. So to our consumer friends, what
I would tell you is, it's probably going to get
more expensive before it gets cheap, okay.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
And then the last question, when what's your best guess
as to when it will be cheaper?
Speaker 2 (14:46):
Like, when will it be below two dollars?
Speaker 4 (14:48):
It'll be below two dollars.
Speaker 5 (14:53):
I'd hate to say never, but two dollars seems real
cheap in this environment.
Speaker 3 (14:58):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (14:58):
So maybe never. Fascinating, fascinating Probably in twenty.
Speaker 4 (15:02):
Twenty seven Ross, that's when we'd see two dollars again.
Speaker 2 (15:05):
Wow.
Speaker 1 (15:06):
Jordan Lavy is CEO of ar Kadie Asset Management. They
own five Rivers Cattle, which is the largest cattle feeding
operation in the entire world.
Speaker 2 (15:14):
Probably very very few.
Speaker 1 (15:16):
People in the world know as much about about beef
and the cattle market as Jordan. I'm very grateful for
your time as always, and thanks.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
Thanks so much and we'll keep in touch.
Speaker 4 (15:26):
Yeah, awesome, Come and see us Ross.
Speaker 2 (15:28):
Yeah, we'll do, we'll do.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
They're based in Johnstown, by the way, which is pretty
cool right here, right here in Colorado, Okay,
From the brilliant comedian Stephen Wright. And this is about
a time that he got on the bus and sat
down next to a gorgeous blonde Chinese girl.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
And this is the rest of the story.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
And she said, well, I've just come back for my
analyst and he's still unable to help me. Nice, what's
the problem? And she paused and said, I'm a nymphomaniac
and I only get turned on my Jewish cowboys. Then
she said, by the way, my name is Diane. And
I said, hello, Diane, I'm Bucky goldst.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Mm hmm, there you go.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
I hope you under I hope you understood that I
won't I won't say what it was again. So, uh,
my next guest Bucky Goldstein a Jewish cowboy. No, his
name is Jordan Levi Levy, And I said, and uh.
And Jordan is CEO of Arcadia Asset Management. And you
might not have heard of Arcadia Asset Management, but they
they owned five Rivers cattle Feeding, which is the largest
(01:03):
cattle feeding operation.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
In the entire world. So there's a very big deal.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Nobody's nobody knows more about the price of beef at
the supermarket than Jordan does. And it's something I've wanted
to talk with him about for for quite some time.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
He's a busy dude, but he made time for us today.
So what's up there, Bucky.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
Good to see you.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
ROSA glad to do it, very glad to do it.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
So you and I talked a while back.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
More like kind of COVID sort of time frame or
issues going on with labor shortages at the processing facilities and.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Stuff like that, and I I kind of thought then
when that when.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
COVID settled out, settled down, the price of beef would
go down. Uh, And it definitely hasn't. And of course
other things happened either. Beef isn't alone in that. But
can you can you tell us why why is beef
so expensive?
Speaker 5 (02:00):
I think fundamentally speaking, we have the smallest cowherd since
the nineteen fifties, and while we can produce more with
less and we have. If you look at total tonnage,
it's about equal to a year ago and twenty four
was equal to twenty twenty three. But people want the product,
and I think that's the most amazing part. So as
(02:23):
we're producing more tonnage with less head, we are finding
insatiable demand from the consumers. And that's for a variety
of reasons.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
Okay, so I'm trying to understand produce more with less,
So I'm just in my non expert brain, I think
of a few possibilities.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Producing more meat with fewer cows.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
Either means you're cutting them differently, and I sort of
doubt that because cutting was probably pretty efficient already.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
The cows are bigger maybe.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
Or maybe there's something where there's a higher survival like
a lower attrition rate of cattle, so a bigger percentage
of them are making it all the way to becoming
food bo So what is it.
Speaker 5 (03:05):
It's ultimately the amount of pounds we're putting on the animal.
It's one of the best sustainability stories in agriculture is
the fact that we can produce more beef today with
the same amount of cattle that we had in the
nineteen fifties. And I think that that's the great part
of the story, which is the weights are getting bigger
due to genetics and more precision feed stuffs, and so
(03:29):
the producer is doing all they can to help meet
the demand of the consumer who just loves beef right now,
whether it's Maha or the greater adaptation of glp ones.
People want protein, and they want the highest quality, best
tasting protein, and that protein is beef.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
Wow. Okay, so what about the cost of feed?
Speaker 1 (03:54):
Right, Grain prices can be highly variable, although I haven't
heard a lot about a lot of volatility in grain
prices lately, but there have been times, and you and
I have a mutual friend who was, you know, pretty
big involved in in all this stuff and trading the
grains and all, there have been times when the stuff
you might feed the cows got very expensive and that
(04:14):
might make the cows more expensive. Is that happening now
or is feed pricing kind of under control?
Speaker 5 (04:20):
No?
Speaker 4 (04:20):
Quite the opposite ross.
Speaker 5 (04:21):
In fact, we're putting in kind of contract lows and
corn the last couple of days, and so the cost
to put on additional pounds is not as expensive as
it has been in the past. Which is part of
the reason that the weights have increased so much, is
that you know, the grain farmer has made it, has
made their product. There are input cheap, and as a result,
(04:45):
we're able to increase weights to help satiate that demand.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
So I'm president of bad Analogy Club.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
I'm going to throw something at you, and I want
you to tell me if it's reasonable. The airline into
for many years, was famously volatile when it came to
their finances, and you'd have airlines with some frequency going bankrupt.
And one of the things the airlines did in recent
years to try to deal with that, and with great success,
(05:17):
is to massively cut.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
The number of flights that are available.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
So now instead of five flights a day to DC,
there are three, And instead of five flights a day
being sixty percent full, there are three flights a day
that are one hundred percent full. Is that a similar
dynamic to why there are fewer head of cattle or
is there another reason or multiple reasons.
Speaker 5 (05:39):
I wish our industry was that sophisticated, but that's not
how it works. Ultimately, we buy cattle from the cowcaf producer.
The cowcaf producer is the picture the beautiful ranches post COVID.
The economics were terrible and so they had to liquidate
heard and then in addition drought said in Keek how
(06:01):
caf areas. And so when you have poor economics and
poor drought, you have to liquidate your herd. And by
the time that that hits the market, which is where
we are today. The signal is to start rebuilding the herd,
and we can't rebuild the herd and get you a
steak tomorrow. And so unfortunately, the supply situation gets tighter
(06:23):
before it gets looser. As we bring young females out
of the production chain, we breathe them, and sadly, it's
about a year from the time we take a heifer
a female out of out of meat production and bringing
a steak on the plate. So I guess the good
(06:44):
news is is that I think the industry is starting
to show signs of life in terms of bringing more
animals to market. The bad news is it takes a
long time to bring you an animal that ultimately is
a great steak or a wonderful a wonderful, wonderful.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
We're talking with Jordan Leavy.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
He is CEO of Arcadia Asset Management and Arcadia owns
Five Rivers Cattle Feeding, which is the largest cattle feeding
operation in the world. So let's talk about this from
the perspective either of the rancher who's selling you the cows,
and then also from your perspective it is it better
for them, is it better for you to sell fewer
(07:26):
cows for a higher price or more cows for a
lower prices. Is it an easily calculable thing? Like where
it might be better to like, how do you decide
between selling ten million at fifteen dollars a pound and
fifteen million a ten dollars a pound.
Speaker 5 (07:41):
Yeah, we've got some really smart PhDs in the office
that help us make those calculations. I would tell you
from where I sit, I like abundant supplies. The reason
I like abundant supplies is there's less volatility in the
market and we keep our consumers happy. And we need
to keep our consumers happy so that we have a
long tail of demand. Don't want to blip on the
radar of just demand for a year or two. We
(08:03):
want to make consumers eat beef for the rest of
their lives and then build consumers both domestically and globally
to consume our beef. I think it's important to also
note that one of the reasons that the supply situation
is so tight, it's not just the domestic supply. The
domestic supply, as I mentioned, is the titus. Since the
nineteen fifties, tariffs have also reduced the amount of beef
(08:26):
coming into the US. In addition, New World screw worm,
which is really important. It's a parasite that's been found
in Mexico and had been eradicated over forty fifty years ago,
is back and as a result, we've closed the border
between the United States and Mexico from bringing cattle supplies
(08:47):
from Mexico into the United States. So the combination of
our tight herd plus the border being shut, plus the
tariffs is creating a very tight supply situation at the time.
We never seen the consumer want our product more. We
hear the signals from the consumer, and we're doing everything
we can to increase supply, both in headcount and in tonnage. Unfortunately,
(09:11):
the head count takes a while to to materialize.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
Yeah, and you know, I only ever traded commodities a
little bit. I trade mostly stock options and stuff like that.
So I traded soybeans and corn for like a few
weeks on the board of trades.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
I don't know this.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
I don't know this stuff very well, but it does
seem to me that it's it's a little bit surprising,
let's say, to have super tight markets in cattle while
setting contract lows in corn.
Speaker 4 (09:42):
It is.
Speaker 5 (09:43):
It is certainly an anomaly. There is no doubt. Generally speaking,
the rising tide lifts all boats. But I think that
speaks to the demand side. Ross and I've been trying
to give you the alley oop here, But the demand
side is the real, real, beautiful story here, Yeah, is
that consumers want our beef. And I think part of
that reason is this huge adaptation or adoption excuse me
(10:04):
of GLP once.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
Indeed, so much conversation about people It's been going on
for a while, but accelerating lately, with people aiming towards
higher protein diets, lower carb diets and all this stuff,
and protein is becoming bigger and bigger and bigger, and
beef is certainly a beneficiary. And so it's kind of
hard to tease out because there's so many things going
on at the same time, it's kind of hard to
(10:27):
tease out what exactly is causing how much of the
price rise or the lack of price decline or whatever.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
How much do you And when I say you, now, I.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
Mean the industry worry that when a ribbi goes from
nine dollars a pound to seventeen dollars a pound, that
people who have been beefeeders. We'll start thinking a little
bit more about chicken or pork, and then maybe even
if beef comes down, they'll be like a you know,
I kind of like the pork, not sure if I'll
(10:58):
come back. Is that a kind of thing that concerns you,
as being such a big player in the industry.
Speaker 5 (11:05):
Sure, if I put my economist hat on, or if
I was sitting next to my chief of staff over
at the office, he would tell you the most important
economic sinignal is disposable income. And so we watched that
like a hawk. And so we're starting to hear stories
about early signs of recession, and then the consumer will
ultimately trade down to a different protein. I like to
(11:29):
believe that we offer the most tastiest protein or animal
protein out there, and that the consumer ultimately comes back.
We also have to remember that beef is being consumed
more at home than at the restaurants in this post
COVID atmosphere, and so beef is significantly cheaper in their
pocket eating it at home relative to eating it at
(11:52):
a restaurant. And so, but the bottom line is ross
to answer your question, you know, doubling the price of
a Rabbi certainly does scare us, Yes, which is why
I think the industry is beginning to respond to the
economic signals. It's making cattle bigger because the inputs are cheaper,
but the signal is there, and ultimately we're beginning that
(12:12):
rebuild process.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
All right, let me just switch gears with you for
a moment.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
And this might be a little bit outside of what
five rivers specifically does, but I'm sure you know all
the answers. And this came from a colleague of mine
wanted me to ask you this when I told him
you were you were going to be on. Can you
please tell us what wag you means and what American
wag you means and then maybe just talk about that
segment of the market a little bit.
Speaker 5 (12:37):
Yeah, So wagu and American wag you means delicious. That's
a Joe brows But Wagu beef and American wag you
be it's generally speaking, wag you beef is produced in Japan,
uh and American wagu beef is produced in the United States.
That American wag you beef is generally fifty to fifty
(12:58):
one percent Wagu and the other like let's say the
father is wagu, a wagoo bull and either an angus
or a different breed of cow, and so it is
predominantly wago because it's greater than fifty percent. We're big,
big proponents of American wago. We're large producers of it,
(13:18):
and those of you that haven't tried it, I highly
recommend it, and I think once you try it, you'll
never trade the pork.
Speaker 4 (13:24):
Ever, we're chicken.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
What's better about it?
Speaker 5 (13:28):
It has a tremendous fat and flavor profile that you
cannot always get from a prime steak. It's so rich,
and so think of it as dark chocolate versus milk chocolate.
Both are delicious, but sometimes you want to create that
dark chocolate because you want that richness.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Last question for you, Jordan, and going back to our
previous topic, if if you were a betting man, give
me right now a price for a benchmark grade of
beef that everybody in your industry would be talking about
in terms of dollars per pound.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
What's just some benchmark number.
Speaker 5 (14:04):
Yeah, So today we're selling beef cattle at about two
dollars and forty cents a pound, which would be a
record futures the exchange is posting around two thirty five.
We had a meeting yesterday and I said two fifty
before two twenty Wow. So I think we'll put kind
of a cycle high here in the next I don't know,
(14:27):
between now and the middle of first quarter of twenty six,
and we'll see live cattle prices at two dollars and
fifty cents a pound. So to our consumer friends, what
I would tell you is, it's probably going to get
more expensive before it gets cheap, okay.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
And then the last question, when what's your best guess
as to when it will be cheaper?
Speaker 2 (14:46):
Like, when will it be below two dollars?
Speaker 4 (14:48):
It'll be below two dollars.
Speaker 5 (14:53):
I'd hate to say never, but two dollars seems real
cheap in this environment.
Speaker 3 (14:58):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (14:58):
So maybe never. Fascinating, fascinating Probably in twenty.
Speaker 4 (15:02):
Twenty seven Ross, that's when we'd see two dollars again.
Speaker 2 (15:05):
Wow.
Speaker 1 (15:06):
Jordan Lavy is CEO of ar Kadie Asset Management. They
own five Rivers Cattle, which is the largest cattle feeding
operation in the entire world.
Speaker 2 (15:14):
Probably very very few.
Speaker 1 (15:16):
People in the world know as much about about beef
and the cattle market as Jordan. I'm very grateful for
your time as always, and thanks.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
Thanks so much and we'll keep in touch.
Speaker 4 (15:26):
Yeah, awesome, Come and see us Ross.
Speaker 2 (15:28):
Yeah, we'll do, we'll do.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
They're based in Johnstown, by the way, which is pretty
cool right here, right here in Colorado, Okay,
The Ross Kaminsky Show News
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