Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's been much too long since we have had my
ageless friend on the show. Katie McFarland was Deputy National
Security under Donald Trump in his first administration, and she's
been doing foreign policy work since she was like three
years old, and working with Henry Kissinger when she was
a toddler, and is just one of the greatest minds
(00:23):
and thinkers and explainers of foreign policy and national security.
And I don't think there's ever been any guest of
the show about whom I have gotten so many emails
saying when are you.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Going to have her back as Katie McFarland.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
And she's back in between her various grandmother ing duties
which have been taking up much of her time lately. Hi,
kat it is so good to see you. It's been
a while.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
And has been a while, but I'm glad to be
back with you.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
How are the grandkids before we talk about the world.
Speaker 3 (00:54):
Yeah, boy, just one second, excuse me for one minute.
I forgot to turn that on. My children are great,
my grandchildren are great, and we have a big family
wedding coming up in ten days, so I'm very preoccupied
with things like, you know, who's going to throw the bouquet.
Who's going to catch the bouquet? What kind of flowers
(01:16):
are going to be on the table. So I'm living
like my best life as a as a New York housewife. Another,
is it pre planned?
Speaker 2 (01:23):
Who catches the bouquet? Of course I had no idea.
Speaker 3 (01:29):
Yes.
Speaker 1 (01:30):
I thought it was like you turn around and you
randomly throat fling the thing and some random person catches it.
It's like opening a fortune cookie of no idea. Wow,
look at that. I feel so naive now.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Reason. I mean, it was just like warfare, right if
somebody you don't really want bridesmaids elbowing each other out
to catch the bouquet, that's not a very attractive look.
It's got to be kind of pre planned. Wow.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Wow, I had no idea. I had no idea.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Producer shaking his head too, he had no idea. Also,
all right, So I realized, that's extremely important. But let's
get let's get to some slightly less important but still
important stuff about what's going on in the world.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
And everybody saw President.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
Trump's meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska. I was not
among those people who said, oh, just meeting with him
as a win for Putin. Although I didn't think much
would come of it, I thought, why not, It's worth
a try. And then he met with Zelenski and the
Europeans and there's all this talk. But now Sergei Lavrov
is throwing cold water on the whole thing. So how
(02:34):
are you seeing right now any potential for a piece
deal between Russia and Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
President Trump's in his awkward position because he wants a
deal that at the end of the deal does the following.
It guarantees Ukraine's sovereignty and security, but it does so
at the same time that it improves relations between the
United States and Russia, because it's not just Europe, it's
not just Ukraine, not just ending the world though that's
(03:04):
a big part of President Trump's motivation, but it's also
to have an enduring, new and enduring relationship with Russia.
Why does that matter to us, because we're trying to
do a reverse Kissinger, which is just what a wedge
between China and Russia. Because now, at the beginning of
Trump's first term, one of his goals was to improve
relations with Russia in part, in the large part because
(03:28):
he's always recognized China is the big strategic threat, not Russia,
not other things. It's always been China. So how do
you make sure China doesn't It's Chinese technology, Chinese money
is not married up with Russian weapons and Russian natural resources,
because that's a strategic and really existential threat to us.
(03:48):
So he's got a much deeper set of objectives. So
what's happening. Well, he could, you know, he could do
a lot to crush Russia's economy. There are several things
he could do in the international banking system, he could
and for a secondary sanctions. What that would do, though,
was drive Russia. Might drive Russia to a negotiating table,
or it might bankrupt Russia so that it could not
(04:10):
proceed and pursue the war. But what it would do
is drive Russia into the arms if you of China.
And that's what he doesn't want to do, and I
think that's why he's been giving Russia every off ramp.
You know, let's meet, and let's meet, let's have another meeting,
let's do this. And if Russia doesn't accept, he doesn't
go to the table, if he doesn't negotiate in good faith,
then Trump does have what euphemistically is called the nuclear
(04:34):
option doesn't mean use mere weapons, but to take steps
against Russia that would really crush their economy.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
Lediarer Putin is a master manipulator, and he is very
clever at getting people to make it difficult to predict
what he's going to do next, which I think is
a strategic benefit to him. And also he's an old
style KGB colonel who deeply regrets the breakup of the
Soviet Union. And he wrote that seven thousand page essay
(05:07):
that you probably read three or four times, although it
probably bored you to tears even the very first time,
in which he argues that the creation of the Ukraine
by Vladimir Lenin was a historical error and that Ukraine
should not exist as a country. So, if you're looking
at a guy who deeply believes that his legacy is
at least some reassembling of, if not the Soviet Union,
(05:28):
at least the Russian Empire, I shouldn't say at least,
then do you think there's any threat that can be
made against Vladimir Putin that would deter him from this
effort to try to take whatever he wants to take
of Ukraine. My thinking has been the only thing that
would move him. Would be if China said they were
going to stop buying Russian energy and I don't see
(05:49):
that happening.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
Well, what would deter Putin? They didn't have any money,
you know, worse or expensive. And there's one of the
reasons that President Putin did not invade anybody. While Trump
was president was a condident. The money when Obama was president,
oil was one hundred and forty dollars a barrel. What
did that mean? The Russian economy was flush. Russia had
plenty of extra money to just spend out a war.
(06:12):
The thought is that Russian needs oil at about a
ninety hundred dollars a barrel because it pays for everything
in Russian society. American energy companies make a profit of
oils about fifty dollars a barrel, So we can always
undercut the Russians, we can always make the world buy
American energy is cheaper, faster, better, safer than anybody else's.
But what it does to Russia is it bankrupts Russia.
(06:34):
So when President Obama was in office, plenty of money
for Wladimir Putin to grab crimea President Trump comes into office,
oil goes from one hundred and forty dollars a barrel
down to about forty dollars a barrow. Part of that
was COVID, but a lot of that was President Trump's
energy policy. And all of a sudden, Putin doesn't have
any money to buy weapons. He has a hard enough
(06:54):
time feeding his own people. President Trump leaves office, Boden
comes in, reverts back, so the Obama energy policies and
all predictively goes to about one hundred dollars to Burea.
And so there's Russia once again, you know, flush with cash.
And what does it do with the money. It invades
Ukraine again. So a lot of it is tied to
oil prices because it's Russia's main line of work. It's
(07:17):
the only way they make real money. And if you
if so, you don't trust Footin for it for five minutes,
but you take away his ability to make war because
you take away his income. That's why it takes longer.
But it's a way to end the war.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
Okay, So I'm with you on all that. So how
do you get the price of oil down? So I
don't think China will stop buying Russian oil. That would
be one way to get rid of a massive income
but they won't do that. So you could have American
producers produce more, but I kind of think they won't
because oil prices are low right now, and that industry,
the investors in that industry got pretty upset when years
(07:53):
ago they put a lot of money in and they
really didn't get payback, and they want to see return
on their capital now, so they are a lot more
hesitant to expand production then they used to be. The
other potential way and this is every bit is difficult,
But could you get Saudi, Could you get Opek to
like open the spigots just a little more and drive
oil from sixty four to fifty seven?
Speaker 3 (08:14):
You certainly could do that. And that's one of the
reasons that President Trump has pursued a real pro Saudi,
pro Gulf Arab policy is in part because they'll do
US favors like that. But I would look at it
in a different way. The countries that import Russian oil
are China the most, India's next, and then Turkey. It's
(08:35):
also true, which is just stunning, is that Russia will
export oil to countries they're called ghost ships and those
countries and pretend it's not Russian oil, or they repackage
it and then they send it back to the Europeans.
So in fact, the Europeans, despite their claims to the
contrary and oh poor Ukraine, Europeans are complicit in giving
(08:58):
putin the money to pay for the machine. Now, the
other thing that Trump understands is, you know, the price
of oil means Russia's broke or Russia's rich. There's a
second thing that's going on that is really had not
been eight years ago, but is really what you're seeing.
You're seeing it playing out in real time, which is
is the tair Force. So the United States is the
(09:19):
world's largest market. Every country needs access to our market
or it doesn't function. You know, we have alternatives, we
can buy from different suppliers, but all those other countries
need to sell their goods to the United States and
they will pay heavily for that privilege. So one of
that's why Trump is able to rewrite all of these
trade deals, because these other countries have no choice. One
(09:41):
of the places to go is to India, and President
Trump has tried this has started doing the same India,
if you buy Russian and oil, We're going to slap
massive sanctions on your goods. You're not going to be
able to sell your goods and in the United States
in any competitive way, so you can those are all
secondary sanctions. Now where are we in that, Well, we're
kind of in the middle of that. The Indians have
(10:02):
indicated maybe they want to They certainly don't like the tariffs,
but what would they do as an alternative. The Europeans. Interesting,
the Europeans have been buying Russian oil and guess for
a long time, and then part of the U EU
European Union US trade deal of about a month ago
contain Everyone thought it was all about tariff levels and
access to each other's markets, but it also is about energy.
(10:24):
The Europeans agreed to buy three quarters of a trillion
dollars of American energy and invest in American energy production.
So what that does is it replaces Russia with Russian
energy with American energy. So all these things together is
stuff that's kind of going on in President Trump's mind,
you know, economic pressure and sanctions and commerce and using
(10:49):
commerce as a trade weapon. It takes longer to achieve
your result, but I think it's a much surer thing
than a military engagement, which, as we've seen, you know,
gets into these wars. Good at finishing these words, and
you're certainly not good at winning these words.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
We're talking with Katie McFarland, former Deputy National Security Advisor,
author a few years ago of a book that remains
highly relevant today. It's called Revolution, Trump, Washington and We
the People. I'm going to ask you a question that
you're not going to answer, but I'm going to ask
you anyway, when Mike Waltz got removed as National Security Advisor, did.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
You have interest in that job?
Speaker 3 (11:27):
No? You know, I mean, you're wonderful to say that,
and I've been asked about that, and I've been asked
to join the Trump administration. But at my stage of life,
those are one hundred dollars week jobs.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Yeah, and been.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
There, done that, you know, As you point out, I
go all the way back to Henry Kissinger is my boss.
So what I think I'm far more effective is to
help the national debate. And I know President Trump himself
very much values what people say on the air and
the kind of explanations that they do, why they support him,
why they like his policies. So I think I'm more
(12:00):
talking to people like you than I am. You know,
I'm meeting in the bowels of the White House, talking
to people of exist and secretaries of viso.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
I get that completely. Sometimes people ask me if I
want to run for office, and I say, I think
I can be far more effective on the radio than
being one of however many people one last Russia question,
then I want to move to a couple other things.
I had a quasi expert on this stuff on the show,
not as expert as you, but a journalist who was,
like with Trump in Helsinki and follows this stuff very closely.
(12:33):
And I asked him, do you think there will be
a ceasefire agreed to between Russia and Ukraine by the
end of the year, And he said yes.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
And my answer is no, I think there won't be.
What do you think.
Speaker 3 (12:45):
I think Trump will get it here? And here's why.
You know, I've worked for for presidents. I've been in
the winehouse situation room, you know, in varying degrees of
positions of power. But I've seen up close all of
the certain negotiating styles of different presents and President Reagan.
Why is Trump so successful? You know, He's just successful
of any international negotiations he's touching. Was the seven piece
(13:08):
agreements so far in just as many months. And I
think it's because he approaches it as a businessman. A businessman,
especially a real estate developer. He's got to build a building.
He doesn't make any money until that building is built up.
Until that point, it just costs him money to buy
the land. He has a service to Dad. He needs
to buy the materials, he has to hire the workers.
(13:29):
So he's got an urgency of getting that building built
so he can get to some profit. The second thing
is he doesn't know what's going to run into trouble
along the way. It's going to have bad weather that's
going to delay construction. Is he going to have a
labor strength? Is he going to have politicians you want
to shut him down. So he's got to be able
to maneuver and tibot and improvise, and unlike most politicians,
(13:52):
so for Trump, you don't have a plan A, a
plan B, a plan C. And he moves on very quickly.
He doesn't continue to beat the dead horse. Chicians only
have planning because if they admit, oh, my Plan A
was a failure, then they're all of a sudden open
to a lot of political criticism and a politician was
to win the next election. Trump is differently focused. So
(14:14):
I think that then is his success. It's a long
answer of saying yes. I think he gets what he wants.
I think he gets a peace agreement. How he gets it,
I think there's so many more steps here, he's going
to have it. Plan A was they were all going
to come to the negotiating table because his term and personality.
That didn't work. Plan B he was going to use
economic and military pressure. He did use it on Ukraine.
(14:34):
They went to the negotiating table and they're prepared to
do a deal, but it didn't work. On Russia. Plan
C was to meet with Vladimir Putin. Maybe that has
some success, but as you point out, Putin says one thing,
Lavrov says something else, Putin continues to bump. So I
think Trump is on to Plan D and maybe there's
a Plan EYE. But I think he gets there because
(14:55):
he's going to improvise pivot. It won't be pretty, but
I think get a deal on the end.
Speaker 1 (15:01):
My listeners know, and you probably know, kt I have
mixed feelings about Trump.
Speaker 2 (15:05):
I love him on some things and not so much
on other things.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
But what I often say to my listeners is everybody
knows that Trump is very transactional, right. I don't think
Trump has a lot of deep beliefs. I think he
has two deep beliefs that I know of for many
mint for decades.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
One is he's skeptical of free trade. That's not the
point of our conversation today. The other is he hates war.
He's hated war for decades. He's been very clear about it.
Speaker 1 (15:30):
The dude wants to Nobel Peace Prize, and I think
he should probably get it. But certainly he thinks I
think he thinks, I don't know him, that if he
can arrange a piece deal between Russia and Ukraine, he'd
be a shoe in. Now he's not a shoe in
for anything, because so many people out there just can't
think straight about him. But I appreciate this about him
(15:52):
that I think he deeply in his heart hates war,
and I.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
Think it goes you know, he's the Vietnam generational. Though
he did not serving the military, he had a lot
of friends who did, and that was the beginning of
America's forever wars that we lose. Whether it was Vietnam
and enormous sacrifice ript the country apart. The wa had
nothing to show for it. We lost that war. And
then we had the Middle East Wars if Forever wars
(16:17):
in Afghanistan and Iraq. Spent a lot of blood and
treasure around those, nothing to show for it. We lost
those for us, we had the Libya, I mean, all
these little wars, and during the Obama administration nothing good
ever happened. So so I think President Trump. First of all,
he comes with a deep, visceral abhorrence of war. And secondly,
(16:37):
he believes in commerce. He believes in trade. We're good
at trade. He believes in technology. We're good at technology.
So why don't we do what we're good at to
maintain America's position in the world.
Speaker 2 (16:49):
Let me switch gears with you for just a couple
of minutes.
Speaker 1 (16:50):
It's been out of the American news a lot, but
the Israel Gaza situation is still going.
Speaker 2 (16:56):
Benjamin et Yaho has put forward.
Speaker 1 (16:59):
A plan that the Israeli military doesn't seem to love.
But they'll do what if they're told to to go
capture Gaza City and uh there, And now you've got
this organization claiming that there's a famine there. Of course,
every picture of a starving kid is actually a kid
who's got a health issue, and it's not actually, you know,
skinny like that from starving.
Speaker 2 (17:18):
It's all it's all lies.
Speaker 1 (17:19):
But how do you think about the current Israel Gaza situation,
in particular in the context of America's national interests.
Speaker 3 (17:28):
I think that we have we have a vital national
interest in the Middle East, certainly with Israel. I think
we have the beginnings of peace in the Middle East
with the Abraham Acorus, which are peace agreements between Israelis
and the Gulf Arabs. I think that will expand and
include other Arab countries. What to be done, Look, you know,
you got to get rid of the mass. They're not
(17:49):
and there's no nice way to say this. You've just
got to obliterate the mass. And I think if Israel
just I think President Trump has made it pretty clear
Israel do actually have to do, but do it fast.
And so I am very much in favor of Israel
going in just cleaning it out, because at the end
of the day, the people, the Palestinians are not going
to thrive while Hamas has got their hands around the
(18:11):
necks of the Palastinians. One thing I really, Duke a
commanded president for is this new humanitarian relief effort that
we are running. So in the past, any relief and
humanitarian assistants went to the UN, and from the UN
it went to Hamas, and Hamas was distributing it, or
that the Hamas was keeping a lot of the aid
for themselves, selling it on the black market and denying
(18:33):
its medical and humanitarian assistants to their own people. And
they wanted to do to deny it because they wanted
the picture of the starving for Palestinians, because they want
to win the pr battle. They know they can't win
a military bettle against Israel, but they might win a
per battle. So once the United States has now stepped
in and we are distributing the aid, the humanitarian assistance,
medical assistance, the situation for the average Palestinian, I think
(18:56):
it has gotten much better.
Speaker 1 (18:58):
Kata McFarlane, former Deputy Outational Security Advisor, author of Revolution Trump,
Washington and we the people.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
It's been much too long. Kt. I'm so glad we've
got your schedule to be back.
Speaker 1 (19:08):
Once a month for the next few months, and it's
it's really great to see you have fun at that
big family wedding. I didn't realize the biggest thing I
learned today is that you actually know an advance who's
going to catch the bouquet.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
My mind is still is still blown on that.
Speaker 4 (19:23):
So well, I mean, just think about this ross. If
you don't know in advance, if you're leaving this all
up to chance, Yeah, well I guess you could. But
I trained as a defense planner at MIT.
Speaker 3 (19:33):
We don't like to leave things to chance.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
The visual of bridemaids, bridesmaids jumping over each other to
catch the bouquet is something I long to see. KT,
thanks for being here in Go Navy.
Speaker 3 (19:51):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
See all right, that's the great KT McFarland's
It's been much too long since we have had my
ageless friend on the show. Katie McFarland was Deputy National
Security under Donald Trump in his first administration, and she's
been doing foreign policy work since she was like three
years old, and working with Henry Kissinger when she was
a toddler, and is just one of the greatest minds
(00:23):
and thinkers and explainers of foreign policy and national security.
And I don't think there's ever been any guest of
the show about whom I have gotten so many emails
saying when are you.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Going to have her back as Katie McFarland.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
And she's back in between her various grandmother ing duties
which have been taking up much of her time lately. Hi,
kat it is so good to see you. It's been
a while.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
And has been a while, but I'm glad to be
back with you.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
How are the grandkids before we talk about the world.
Speaker 3 (00:54):
Yeah, boy, just one second, excuse me for one minute.
I forgot to turn that on. My children are great,
my grandchildren are great, and we have a big family
wedding coming up in ten days, so I'm very preoccupied
with things like, you know, who's going to throw the bouquet.
Who's going to catch the bouquet? What kind of flowers
(01:16):
are going to be on the table. So I'm living
like my best life as a as a New York housewife. Another,
is it pre planned?
Speaker 2 (01:23):
Who catches the bouquet? Of course I had no idea.
Speaker 3 (01:29):
Yes.
Speaker 1 (01:30):
I thought it was like you turn around and you
randomly throat fling the thing and some random person catches it.
It's like opening a fortune cookie of no idea. Wow,
look at that. I feel so naive now.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Reason. I mean, it was just like warfare, right if
somebody you don't really want bridesmaids elbowing each other out
to catch the bouquet, that's not a very attractive look.
It's got to be kind of pre planned. Wow.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Wow, I had no idea. I had no idea.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Producer shaking his head too, he had no idea. Also,
all right, So I realized, that's extremely important. But let's
get let's get to some slightly less important but still
important stuff about what's going on in the world.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
And everybody saw President.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
Trump's meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska. I was not
among those people who said, oh, just meeting with him
as a win for Putin. Although I didn't think much
would come of it, I thought, why not, It's worth
a try. And then he met with Zelenski and the
Europeans and there's all this talk. But now Sergei Lavrov
is throwing cold water on the whole thing. So how
(02:34):
are you seeing right now any potential for a piece
deal between Russia and Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
President Trump's in his awkward position because he wants a
deal that at the end of the deal does the following.
It guarantees Ukraine's sovereignty and security, but it does so
at the same time that it improves relations between the
United States and Russia, because it's not just Europe, it's
not just Ukraine, not just ending the world though that's
(03:04):
a big part of President Trump's motivation, but it's also
to have an enduring, new and enduring relationship with Russia.
Why does that matter to us, because we're trying to
do a reverse Kissinger, which is just what a wedge
between China and Russia. Because now, at the beginning of
Trump's first term, one of his goals was to improve
relations with Russia in part, in the large part because
(03:28):
he's always recognized China is the big strategic threat, not Russia,
not other things. It's always been China. So how do
you make sure China doesn't It's Chinese technology, Chinese money
is not married up with Russian weapons and Russian natural resources,
because that's a strategic and really existential threat to us.
(03:48):
So he's got a much deeper set of objectives. So
what's happening. Well, he could, you know, he could do
a lot to crush Russia's economy. There are several things
he could do in the international banking system, he could
and for a secondary sanctions. What that would do, though,
was drive Russia. Might drive Russia to a negotiating table,
or it might bankrupt Russia so that it could not
(04:10):
proceed and pursue the war. But what it would do
is drive Russia into the arms if you of China.
And that's what he doesn't want to do, and I
think that's why he's been giving Russia every off ramp.
You know, let's meet, and let's meet, let's have another meeting,
let's do this. And if Russia doesn't accept, he doesn't
go to the table, if he doesn't negotiate in good faith,
then Trump does have what euphemistically is called the nuclear
(04:34):
option doesn't mean use mere weapons, but to take steps
against Russia that would really crush their economy.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
Lediarer Putin is a master manipulator, and he is very
clever at getting people to make it difficult to predict
what he's going to do next, which I think is
a strategic benefit to him. And also he's an old
style KGB colonel who deeply regrets the breakup of the
Soviet Union. And he wrote that seven thousand page essay
(05:07):
that you probably read three or four times, although it
probably bored you to tears even the very first time,
in which he argues that the creation of the Ukraine
by Vladimir Lenin was a historical error and that Ukraine
should not exist as a country. So, if you're looking
at a guy who deeply believes that his legacy is
at least some reassembling of, if not the Soviet Union,
(05:28):
at least the Russian Empire, I shouldn't say at least,
then do you think there's any threat that can be
made against Vladimir Putin that would deter him from this
effort to try to take whatever he wants to take
of Ukraine. My thinking has been the only thing that
would move him. Would be if China said they were
going to stop buying Russian energy and I don't see
(05:49):
that happening.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
Well, what would deter Putin? They didn't have any money,
you know, worse or expensive. And there's one of the
reasons that President Putin did not invade anybody. While Trump
was president was a condident. The money when Obama was president,
oil was one hundred and forty dollars a barrel. What
did that mean? The Russian economy was flush. Russia had
plenty of extra money to just spend out a war.
(06:12):
The thought is that Russian needs oil at about a
ninety hundred dollars a barrel because it pays for everything
in Russian society. American energy companies make a profit of
oils about fifty dollars a barrel, So we can always
undercut the Russians, we can always make the world buy
American energy is cheaper, faster, better, safer than anybody else's.
But what it does to Russia is it bankrupts Russia.
(06:34):
So when President Obama was in office, plenty of money
for Wladimir Putin to grab crimea President Trump comes into office,
oil goes from one hundred and forty dollars a barrel
down to about forty dollars a barrow. Part of that
was COVID, but a lot of that was President Trump's
energy policy. And all of a sudden, Putin doesn't have
any money to buy weapons. He has a hard enough
(06:54):
time feeding his own people. President Trump leaves office, Boden
comes in, reverts back, so the Obama energy policies and
all predictively goes to about one hundred dollars to Burea.
And so there's Russia once again, you know, flush with cash.
And what does it do with the money. It invades
Ukraine again. So a lot of it is tied to
oil prices because it's Russia's main line of work. It's
(07:17):
the only way they make real money. And if you
if so, you don't trust Footin for it for five minutes,
but you take away his ability to make war because
you take away his income. That's why it takes longer.
But it's a way to end the war.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
Okay, So I'm with you on all that. So how
do you get the price of oil down? So I
don't think China will stop buying Russian oil. That would
be one way to get rid of a massive income
but they won't do that. So you could have American
producers produce more, but I kind of think they won't
because oil prices are low right now, and that industry,
the investors in that industry got pretty upset when years
(07:53):
ago they put a lot of money in and they
really didn't get payback, and they want to see return
on their capital now, so they are a lot more
hesitant to expand production then they used to be. The
other potential way and this is every bit is difficult,
But could you get Saudi, Could you get Opek to
like open the spigots just a little more and drive
oil from sixty four to fifty seven?
Speaker 3 (08:14):
You certainly could do that. And that's one of the
reasons that President Trump has pursued a real pro Saudi,
pro Gulf Arab policy is in part because they'll do
US favors like that. But I would look at it
in a different way. The countries that import Russian oil
are China the most, India's next, and then Turkey. It's
(08:35):
also true, which is just stunning, is that Russia will
export oil to countries they're called ghost ships and those
countries and pretend it's not Russian oil, or they repackage
it and then they send it back to the Europeans.
So in fact, the Europeans, despite their claims to the
contrary and oh poor Ukraine, Europeans are complicit in giving
(08:58):
putin the money to pay for the machine. Now, the
other thing that Trump understands is, you know, the price
of oil means Russia's broke or Russia's rich. There's a
second thing that's going on that is really had not
been eight years ago, but is really what you're seeing.
You're seeing it playing out in real time, which is
is the tair Force. So the United States is the
(09:19):
world's largest market. Every country needs access to our market
or it doesn't function. You know, we have alternatives, we
can buy from different suppliers, but all those other countries
need to sell their goods to the United States and
they will pay heavily for that privilege. So one of
that's why Trump is able to rewrite all of these
trade deals, because these other countries have no choice. One
(09:41):
of the places to go is to India, and President
Trump has tried this has started doing the same India,
if you buy Russian and oil, We're going to slap
massive sanctions on your goods. You're not going to be
able to sell your goods and in the United States
in any competitive way, so you can those are all
secondary sanctions. Now where are we in that, Well, we're
kind of in the middle of that. The Indians have
(10:02):
indicated maybe they want to They certainly don't like the tariffs,
but what would they do as an alternative. The Europeans. Interesting,
the Europeans have been buying Russian oil and guess for
a long time, and then part of the U EU
European Union US trade deal of about a month ago
contain Everyone thought it was all about tariff levels and
access to each other's markets, but it also is about energy.
(10:24):
The Europeans agreed to buy three quarters of a trillion
dollars of American energy and invest in American energy production.
So what that does is it replaces Russia with Russian
energy with American energy. So all these things together is
stuff that's kind of going on in President Trump's mind,
you know, economic pressure and sanctions and commerce and using
(10:49):
commerce as a trade weapon. It takes longer to achieve
your result, but I think it's a much surer thing
than a military engagement, which, as we've seen, you know,
gets into these wars. Good at finishing these words, and
you're certainly not good at winning these words.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
We're talking with Katie McFarland, former Deputy National Security Advisor,
author a few years ago of a book that remains
highly relevant today. It's called Revolution, Trump, Washington and We
the People. I'm going to ask you a question that
you're not going to answer, but I'm going to ask
you anyway, when Mike Waltz got removed as National Security Advisor, did.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
You have interest in that job?
Speaker 3 (11:27):
No? You know, I mean, you're wonderful to say that,
and I've been asked about that, and I've been asked
to join the Trump administration. But at my stage of life,
those are one hundred dollars week jobs.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Yeah, and been.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
There, done that, you know, As you point out, I
go all the way back to Henry Kissinger is my boss.
So what I think I'm far more effective is to
help the national debate. And I know President Trump himself
very much values what people say on the air and
the kind of explanations that they do, why they support him,
why they like his policies. So I think I'm more
(12:00):
talking to people like you than I am. You know,
I'm meeting in the bowels of the White House, talking
to people of exist and secretaries of viso.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
I get that completely. Sometimes people ask me if I
want to run for office, and I say, I think
I can be far more effective on the radio than
being one of however many people one last Russia question,
then I want to move to a couple other things.
I had a quasi expert on this stuff on the show,
not as expert as you, but a journalist who was,
like with Trump in Helsinki and follows this stuff very closely.
(12:33):
And I asked him, do you think there will be
a ceasefire agreed to between Russia and Ukraine by the
end of the year, And he said yes.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
And my answer is no, I think there won't be.
What do you think.
Speaker 3 (12:45):
I think Trump will get it here? And here's why.
You know, I've worked for for presidents. I've been in
the winehouse situation room, you know, in varying degrees of
positions of power. But I've seen up close all of
the certain negotiating styles of different presents and President Reagan.
Why is Trump so successful? You know, He's just successful
of any international negotiations he's touching. Was the seven piece
(13:08):
agreements so far in just as many months. And I
think it's because he approaches it as a businessman. A businessman,
especially a real estate developer. He's got to build a building.
He doesn't make any money until that building is built up.
Until that point, it just costs him money to buy
the land. He has a service to Dad. He needs
to buy the materials, he has to hire the workers.
(13:29):
So he's got an urgency of getting that building built
so he can get to some profit. The second thing
is he doesn't know what's going to run into trouble
along the way. It's going to have bad weather that's
going to delay construction. Is he going to have a
labor strength? Is he going to have politicians you want
to shut him down. So he's got to be able
to maneuver and tibot and improvise, and unlike most politicians,
(13:52):
so for Trump, you don't have a plan A, a
plan B, a plan C. And he moves on very quickly.
He doesn't continue to beat the dead horse. Chicians only
have planning because if they admit, oh, my Plan A
was a failure, then they're all of a sudden open
to a lot of political criticism and a politician was
to win the next election. Trump is differently focused. So
(14:14):
I think that then is his success. It's a long
answer of saying yes. I think he gets what he wants.
I think he gets a peace agreement. How he gets it,
I think there's so many more steps here, he's going
to have it. Plan A was they were all going
to come to the negotiating table because his term and personality.
That didn't work. Plan B he was going to use
economic and military pressure. He did use it on Ukraine.
(14:34):
They went to the negotiating table and they're prepared to
do a deal, but it didn't work. On Russia. Plan
C was to meet with Vladimir Putin. Maybe that has
some success, but as you point out, Putin says one thing,
Lavrov says something else, Putin continues to bump. So I
think Trump is on to Plan D and maybe there's
a Plan EYE. But I think he gets there because
(14:55):
he's going to improvise pivot. It won't be pretty, but
I think get a deal on the end.
Speaker 1 (15:01):
My listeners know, and you probably know, kt I have
mixed feelings about Trump.
Speaker 2 (15:05):
I love him on some things and not so much
on other things.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
But what I often say to my listeners is everybody
knows that Trump is very transactional, right. I don't think
Trump has a lot of deep beliefs. I think he
has two deep beliefs that I know of for many
mint for decades.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
One is he's skeptical of free trade. That's not the
point of our conversation today. The other is he hates war.
He's hated war for decades. He's been very clear about it.
Speaker 1 (15:30):
The dude wants to Nobel Peace Prize, and I think
he should probably get it. But certainly he thinks I
think he thinks, I don't know him, that if he
can arrange a piece deal between Russia and Ukraine, he'd
be a shoe in. Now he's not a shoe in
for anything, because so many people out there just can't
think straight about him. But I appreciate this about him
(15:52):
that I think he deeply in his heart hates war,
and I.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
Think it goes you know, he's the Vietnam generational. Though
he did not serving the military, he had a lot
of friends who did, and that was the beginning of
America's forever wars that we lose. Whether it was Vietnam
and enormous sacrifice ript the country apart. The wa had
nothing to show for it. We lost that war. And
then we had the Middle East Wars if Forever wars
(16:17):
in Afghanistan and Iraq. Spent a lot of blood and
treasure around those, nothing to show for it. We lost
those for us, we had the Libya, I mean, all
these little wars, and during the Obama administration nothing good
ever happened. So so I think President Trump. First of all,
he comes with a deep, visceral abhorrence of war. And secondly,
(16:37):
he believes in commerce. He believes in trade. We're good
at trade. He believes in technology. We're good at technology.
So why don't we do what we're good at to
maintain America's position in the world.
Speaker 2 (16:49):
Let me switch gears with you for just a couple
of minutes.
Speaker 1 (16:50):
It's been out of the American news a lot, but
the Israel Gaza situation is still going.
Speaker 2 (16:56):
Benjamin et Yaho has put forward.
Speaker 1 (16:59):
A plan that the Israeli military doesn't seem to love.
But they'll do what if they're told to to go
capture Gaza City and uh there, And now you've got
this organization claiming that there's a famine there. Of course,
every picture of a starving kid is actually a kid
who's got a health issue, and it's not actually, you know,
skinny like that from starving.
Speaker 2 (17:18):
It's all it's all lies.
Speaker 1 (17:19):
But how do you think about the current Israel Gaza situation,
in particular in the context of America's national interests.
Speaker 3 (17:28):
I think that we have we have a vital national
interest in the Middle East, certainly with Israel. I think
we have the beginnings of peace in the Middle East
with the Abraham Acorus, which are peace agreements between Israelis
and the Gulf Arabs. I think that will expand and
include other Arab countries. What to be done, Look, you know,
you got to get rid of the mass. They're not
(17:49):
and there's no nice way to say this. You've just
got to obliterate the mass. And I think if Israel
just I think President Trump has made it pretty clear
Israel do actually have to do, but do it fast.
And so I am very much in favor of Israel
going in just cleaning it out, because at the end
of the day, the people, the Palestinians are not going
to thrive while Hamas has got their hands around the
(18:11):
necks of the Palastinians. One thing I really, Duke a
commanded president for is this new humanitarian relief effort that
we are running. So in the past, any relief and
humanitarian assistants went to the UN, and from the UN
it went to Hamas, and Hamas was distributing it, or
that the Hamas was keeping a lot of the aid
for themselves, selling it on the black market and denying
(18:33):
its medical and humanitarian assistants to their own people. And
they wanted to do to deny it because they wanted
the picture of the starving for Palestinians, because they want
to win the pr battle. They know they can't win
a military bettle against Israel, but they might win a
per battle. So once the United States has now stepped
in and we are distributing the aid, the humanitarian assistance,
medical assistance, the situation for the average Palestinian, I think
(18:56):
it has gotten much better.
Speaker 1 (18:58):
Kata McFarlane, former Deputy Outational Security Advisor, author of Revolution Trump,
Washington and we the people.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
It's been much too long. Kt. I'm so glad we've
got your schedule to be back.
Speaker 1 (19:08):
Once a month for the next few months, and it's
it's really great to see you have fun at that
big family wedding. I didn't realize the biggest thing I
learned today is that you actually know an advance who's
going to catch the bouquet.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
My mind is still is still blown on that.
Speaker 4 (19:23):
So well, I mean, just think about this ross. If
you don't know in advance, if you're leaving this all
up to chance, Yeah, well I guess you could. But
I trained as a defense planner at MIT.
Speaker 3 (19:33):
We don't like to leave things to chance.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
The visual of bridemaids, bridesmaids jumping over each other to
catch the bouquet is something I long to see. KT,
thanks for being here in Go Navy.
Speaker 3 (19:51):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
See all right, that's the great KT McFarland's
The Ross Kaminsky Show News
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