Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
I'm very pleased to welcome back to the show my
(00:02):
friend David Flaherty, who is president of Magellan Strategies, which
is a very top quality polling firm based right here
in Colorado. And sometimes you will see some of their
work in public and other times you won't know what
they're doing because they're doing work for private clients. They
(00:23):
just put out a very interesting public poll. It just
came out a few days ago, and the Colorado Voter
Opinion Survey, and I wanted to talk with David about
it because while there is some stuff in there that
is not surprising, you know that there are more Democrats
than Republicans in Colorado, or that Colorado doesn't love Trump,
(00:44):
there's plenty of stuff in this polling that is I
think really interesting, somewhat surprising, and that's the stuff I
primarily wanted to talk with David about.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
So David, welcome back to the show. Thanks for doing this.
I appreciate it absolutely, Ross, thanks for having me. Yeah,
there's a lot going on, there's a lot to cover,
and it's been a while since we put out some
research around opinions on federal issues as well as state issues,
and there was there like you there's some things that
(01:15):
wasn't surprised by, but there were some things that definitely
caught our attention, you know, and one being just the
Democrat party here in Colorado. I'm not saying the state's
going ruby red, you know, next November, and that's a
long time way off, but the Democrats clearly have some
some brand issues, what they stand for issues. It's really
(01:35):
relief really excuse me revealing, but that's just one of
several things that I found really interesting about this really
wide ranging survey.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
So let's just dispense with the Trump stuff early on
because it's not that interesting, but it does sort of
set the framework. And you asked about a bunch of
different policy areas do you approve or disapprove of how
Donald Trump is doing on things like immigration in the
border and other things like that, And there's no issue
(02:04):
where in the state of Colorado where Donald Trump has
more approved than disapprove on any single issue in this
state as far as I could tell. So basically, I mean,
the state doesn't like Colorado doesn't like Trump, and we've
known that for a while. So then let's get to
the next thing, where, surprisingly to me, you asked favorable
(02:26):
or unfavorable about the Republican Party and the Democratic Party.
And I thought these results were fascinating, especially given how
much the state doesn't like Trump.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
Can you talk about that? Absolutely. We did two questions.
One was a measurement of job approval of the job
the Democrats are doing in Congress as well as Republicans.
But then we also asked you have a favorable or
unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party and really not since
two thousand and nine, ross you know, during Obama's first
couple of years in office, have we ever measured the
(02:59):
negative ratings of the Democratic Party, especially in Congress. Being
as high as seventy four percent disapprove of the job
they're doing in Congress, that's pretty fascinating and it really
tells us as well as their image right where Republicans.
Great Republicans aren't like seventy five percent approval, but they
are slightly better than the Democrats right now. And that's
(03:21):
that's that's pretty revealing, and it clearly I think political observers,
people that follow politics know that the Democratic parties had
a really hard time coming together with an alternative message
and alternative strategy to the Trump administration, and they're really
flat footed right now. What people are seeing, they're not liking,
(03:42):
and I just we consider it more or less a
wake up call for you know, Democrats. You know, I'm
not going to talk about at this time right now,
but the governor's race, you know what we may find
next year. However, they have a lot of work to do,
and those national bad numbers seem to be really having
an impact as well here in Colorado that you know,
(04:04):
for them to be successful in twenty six, this needs
to be addressed.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
So one of the other areas you ask about, and
we're gonna tie all this stuff together, but you asked
about economic questions. How do you feel about you know,
is the economy going to get better? Say the same,
get worse? And I'm seeing in your polling results fifty
seven percent of people say that the economy is going
to get worse. That's kind of split almost evenly between
(04:29):
probably gonna get worse, definitely going to get worse. Only
thirty five percent say it's probably are definitely going to
get better. So your survey shows a significant amount of negativity.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
About the economy.
Speaker 1 (04:41):
Tying it back to what you just said, what I
wonder about And this may be a little further than
what you're trying to do with your work, but if
you have an opinion, I would like to know it.
If people think the economy is not good, and assuming
that the economy is normally the number one thing people
vote on, we've got the Republicans in charge of everything
(05:03):
at the federal level and Democrats in charge of everything at.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
The state level.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
Who do voters blame when they feel that their number
one issue isn't going the way they want it to go.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Well, that's an excellent question, ROSSI isn't the way to
look at this. All incumbents should be on their guard
because voters in Colorado have a very sour opinion not
just of the national economy. They're not thrilled with the
tariff policies. They do believe it will make them cost
more goods. The number one issue on the economy is
(05:35):
obviously controlling the cost of living and inflation, which is
front and center, which did help out you know, Donald
Trump in twenty twenty four to defeat you know, Joe Biden.
But sure, I mean Governor Paulis we all know is
moving on. But for Michael Pennett, Phil Wiser whoever the
Republican nominees may be for governor. You know, typically when
(05:56):
you see these kinds of numbers being so bad on
the economy, let alone whether it will improve in twelve months,
that usually sets up well for an alternative candidate than
the party in power. And that's what we're going to
be watching, you know, and who knows who the Republican
nominee may be. But does it mean we're going to
go and have a surprise and Colorado has elects a
(06:17):
Republican governor. We're not saying that. And the generic measurements
we measured did not straight really from our typical d
plus ten to twelve point advantage ever since twenty sixteen ish.
But yes, excellent observation there ross where. Typically when the
economy is this bad and people's opinions of the economy
that bad, it sets up opportunities for alternative candidates that
(06:40):
are currently not in power. And like you said, we
have a federal Republican Republicans and control as they battle
to maintain control, you know, especially in the House, and
then here the Democrats, you know, they've been in control
for a very long time now, maybe people are ready
to look at some alternative solutions to addressing the state's
problems that they want to address.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
That's a really interesting point. So so what David is
saying is, rather than think about it as they're going
to blame the Republicans or they're going to blame the Democrats.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
If they're feeling bad.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
About what's going on, they'll blame whoever's in office now.
And it could be a very anti incumbent mood. David,
it seemed to me from time to time we get
very anti incumbent moods, and probably the first election of
Donald Trump, and actually both elections of Donald Trump were
significantly about anti incumbent, anti incumbent moods. I wonder what,
(07:34):
and this is not so much straight from this survey,
but just from your experience, can anti incumbent moods really
trump people's tribalism, like, you know, just voting for the
party that they always vote for it. How many people
who are Democrats would vote for a Republican because they're
(07:55):
in an anti incumbent mood. I mean, some clearly did
for Trump. And in this state we have a lot
of unaffiliated so it might be a little interesting in
that realm too.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
Absolutely, in one thing that we always look through a lens.
In Colorado, the unaffiliates are going to decide, really who's
gonna be in powered. They are nearly fifty percent of
registration now and in the twenty four election they finally
voted in those numbers. It's not going to be common
in our current politics where a Democrat will feel, you
(08:26):
know what, the inflation is so wrong, especially younger Democrats
eighteen to thirty four is an incredibly important subgroup of
voters that really determined twenty eighteen where hey, if you
ever wanted a whold elective office, if you ran as
a Democrat in twenty eighteen, you're gonna win. And that's
exactly what happened. Those younger voters turned out at presidential
levels where they made up nearly one out of four
votes cast. However, in twenty fourteen excuse me, twenty twenty four,
(08:51):
they did not vote as strongly as they did in
twenty twenty. In fact, one hundred thousand few of them voted.
They were clearly not as jazz to either vote on
Trump out in twenty twenty or they don't have a champion.
You know. The gold standard, which for Democrats is Barack Obama,
where him he was such an exciting candidate. You have
both sides where not only were there like I really
(09:12):
do not feel comfortable with the Republican candidate, but I'm
super excited about who we have. Are the Democrats going
to have a candidate that is making them super excited
so that twenty twenty six perhaps comes similar to what
happened in twenty eighteen, And I would say, right now
that's not the case. You know, they don't seem to
be as excited, even though they are frustrated about inflation.
(09:33):
They can't buy a home, they can't get a job.
AI's taking their jobs, like, there's a lot of headwinds
for that age group. Are they going to turn out
to make out one of four votes in twenty twenty six,
We don't know, but right now it doesn't appear to
be because they're not thrilled, you know, with what the
Democrats are serving up right now. Anyways, not to say
that whoever the dem nominee is here in Colorado, that's
(09:55):
kind of how I put it all together. Oz.
Speaker 1 (09:57):
To answer your question or talking with David Flaherty from
Magellan Strategies, the website is Magellanstrategies dot com. And if
you go to the website you can find this fascinating
research that we're talking about, the Colorado twenty twenty five
voter opinion survey. So I'll just follow up on a
couple of things you said. One, in twenty twenty four,
Donald Trump made huge inroads with young voters. He didn't
(10:20):
win them. I think he didn't win them, but he
did much better than he did before, which is I
think a very interesting thing. And you know, it seemed
to me, especially in twenty eighteen, I got the sense
that just because voters are unaffiliated, it doesn't mean they're
all really swing voters. There are plenty of unaffiliated voters
who are basically hardcore Dems and some who are Republicans.
(10:42):
But you don't need to be registered with a party
in Colorado because you can participate in the primary without it.
But it seemed like in twenty eighteen, as you mentioned,
lots of voters just voted for every Democrat they could
find because they hated.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
Trump so much.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
And I think that I think that dynam still exists
to some degree, but I share your expectation that it's
to a lesser degree.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
I agree yeah, I feel like it's kind of more
baked in and that Donald Trump's frame. You're right, and
that's the other thing that's also you cannot just dismiss
younger voters are really feeling inflation. They're the ones with
lower incomes, They're the ones that are trying to start
their lives, They're the ones that are trying to buy
a home. And just like how Donald Trump one in
(11:28):
twenty sixteen in one pockets of Democrats in rural areas
where economic growth and opportunity was just not even in existence.
There are shades of that, and like you said, Ross,
you know, caution this year he didn't win a majority
of them. But I feel that those younger voters were like, look,
I'm not thrilled about the way this guy goes about
(11:48):
his business. However, I'm looking at lower inflation and I'm
going to give him a try, just and cross my fingers.
I do think it's somewhere in that vein. Yeah, and
that makes sense to me as well. You know, it's
it's and until they really have a champion that's going
to come along, and we will see if that kind
that kind of candidate evolves. We don't know yet. But
that's what makes this interesting to political observers and people
(12:11):
that you know, follow politics in our state in nationally.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
So I say this next thing as observation and not
as criticism. The two leading Democratic candidates candidates for governor,
Michael Bennett and Phil Wiser, neither one of them is
an exciting candidate. And Phil and I are actually pretty
good friends. I don't know Michael Bennett. Phil and I
are pretty good friends. He's a very smart guy, he's
a very nice guy. He's wrong on a lot, but
(12:37):
he's not exciting. He's he's very much of an academic
kind of persona and and and Michael Bennett is too
in a way. And every once in a while, including
maybe a week ago, when Michael Bennett was questioning RFK Junior,
you know, he started yelling at him, and you kind
of get this feeling like Michael Bennett sometimes feels like
(12:57):
he needs to yell in order to.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Get people to pay attention or something.
Speaker 1 (13:01):
You could see a republic Republicans put out a candidate,
maybe Barb Kirkmeyer, for example, who might be a little
more a little more energy, a little more excitement. But man,
that's a big hill to overcome in a D plus
eleven state.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
I would agree Ross and in conventional wisdom, just to
touch on first about the Republican generic bell, we did
ask that question. I think conventional wisdom is that any
Republican that runs the best campaign, and you know, their
stealing of support though is still around forty five forty
six percent, and they will always struggle to get those
additional four or five points. Can Barbara Kirkmeyer or one
(13:39):
of the other primary candidates get out there and do it.
We will see the environment set up perfectly for them,
you know what I mean, to make an alternative case
on how they're going to address the problems facing people
in Colorado. Yeah, but getting back to the Democratic candidate,
You're absolutely right. I see Attorney General wiser at you know,
I go to a lot of you know, CCI conferences.
He's very approachable. He's very much a guy that I
(14:02):
think in his term has gone across the isle. Just
from my own personal work that we do with county
governments and that conservative county governments appreciate how he has
showed up on sex trafficking, fentanyl, and just law and
order issues. I also, I do not know Michael Bennett
you know what I mean. Either it's tougher when you
are a US senator at the Senate level, but his
(14:22):
presidential campaign I thought was perhaps a little bit more
interesting in the things he has fought for. I agree
he's always been kind of known, you know, when he
was like working at Denver Public schools as more of
a technocrat, if you will. But his twenty years in
you know, nearly twenty years in the Senate right there,
Neither of them are Barack Obama. And I'm just saying
Barack Obama if nobody's going to just replace that. But
(14:46):
I do agree with you know, Attorney General Wiser and
Senator Bennett right now are projecting their way. They go
about their business and try to achieve their goals and
represent Coloraden's is is different. It's kind of more problem
solving and keep their heads down and maybe not as exciting.
But again, but getting to Barb Kirkmeyer, very long time,
you know, Well County commissioner. She's done some very great
(15:08):
things in the Senate, I believe as non you know,
not blocking everything great. She's still from Well County, so
you know, long record, but I agree it it makes
this the sort of set up very interesting for twenty six.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
All right, last question for you, David in your new
Colorado twenty twenty five voter opinion survey and folks Magellan
Strategies dot Com to see this, is there something that
we haven't talked about yet that really surprised you and like, wow,
this is this is interesting.
Speaker 2 (15:37):
Two things ross One, you know, and I know I
need to add this just to the blog post, but
it's in our presentation. Is that you know, we did
an image rating question for you know, former Vice President
Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Congresswoman Alexandria Acostio Cortez,
and I hope I got her name right AOC, as
(15:58):
she's properly known, and that AOC, you know, with thirty
thousand people come to hear her speak in our state
earlier this year, that's pretty amazing. Her image rating was
the best of all of the democrats measured. And I
feel that even independence will give her the time of
day of like, tell me about your brand of populism
without her being so tied to Bernie Sanders or just
so far left. And I'm not saying she's becoming a moderate,
(16:20):
but her having a better image rate than Kamala or
Gavin Newsom is pretty surprising. Second most important thing the
question on Ukraine and aid to Ukraine. I find it
absolutely fascinating that Donald Trump in ten years has turned
Republicans or a majority of Republicans into more of an
isolation party when it comes to projecting strength in the
(16:44):
kind of George W. Bush neo conservative thing, and that
Democrats are the number one party when it comes to
going as far as possible and supporting the Ukraine. I
find that amazing that Donald Trump has actually changed, you know,
Republican party that used to be, you know, after nine
to eleven, we're going over there and boots on the
(17:04):
ground and we're projecting world strength everywhere where Donald Trump
and his party, and we know Maggie has been like,
I think we don't need to do that anymore. I
don't think we need to do that. And there's a
great discussion around that. But how many Republicans are like yep,
I am in isolationist Republican which harks back to the
days of like nineteen thirty. I find that utterly fascinating
that Republicans are much more reserve about foreign eight in
(17:26):
all its forms. Fascinating.
Speaker 1 (17:28):
Yeah, that's a great insight, and you know, probably part
of a potential bigger conversation that I'm sure political scientists
will look at of just how much the Republican Party
has changed in recent years.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
That's a very jarring example. Free trade.
Speaker 1 (17:42):
Also Republicans turning against free trade because of Trump. Another
very interesting one. David Flaherty runs Magellan Strategies. You got
to check out this Colorado twenty twenty five voter opinion survey.
It really is fascinating. It's up at Magellanstrategies dot com.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
Yes, to make sure that it's under the blog. It's
not front and center in case some people go to
Magellan Strategies. I just if you go to our blog,
you'll see it's posted right there. It's the most recent
post and it's all in there for you to download view,
make up your own mind. We covered a ton of
stuff because there's a ton of stuff going on, but
I just really appreciate having the opportunity to discuss it,
(18:19):
and I appreciate that you appreciate the research. There's a
lot of interesting things in here.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
Absolutely, Okay, Magellan Strategies dot Com click where it says
blog and you will find this. David, thanks for your time,
really fascinating research and a great conversation.
Speaker 2 (18:31):
Appreciate it. Good to see your Row Starctisians all right,
you two
I'm very pleased to welcome back to the show my
(00:02):
friend David Flaherty, who is president of Magellan Strategies, which
is a very top quality polling firm based right here
in Colorado. And sometimes you will see some of their
work in public and other times you won't know what
they're doing because they're doing work for private clients. They
(00:23):
just put out a very interesting public poll. It just
came out a few days ago, and the Colorado Voter
Opinion Survey, and I wanted to talk with David about
it because while there is some stuff in there that
is not surprising, you know that there are more Democrats
than Republicans in Colorado, or that Colorado doesn't love Trump,
(00:44):
there's plenty of stuff in this polling that is I
think really interesting, somewhat surprising, and that's the stuff I
primarily wanted to talk with David about.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
So David, welcome back to the show. Thanks for doing this.
I appreciate it absolutely, Ross, thanks for having me. Yeah,
there's a lot going on, there's a lot to cover,
and it's been a while since we put out some
research around opinions on federal issues as well as state issues,
and there was there like you there's some things that
(01:15):
wasn't surprised by, but there were some things that definitely
caught our attention, you know, and one being just the
Democrat party here in Colorado. I'm not saying the state's
going ruby red, you know, next November, and that's a
long time way off, but the Democrats clearly have some
some brand issues, what they stand for issues. It's really
(01:35):
relief really excuse me revealing, but that's just one of
several things that I found really interesting about this really
wide ranging survey.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
So let's just dispense with the Trump stuff early on
because it's not that interesting, but it does sort of
set the framework. And you asked about a bunch of
different policy areas do you approve or disapprove of how
Donald Trump is doing on things like immigration in the
border and other things like that, And there's no issue
(02:04):
where in the state of Colorado where Donald Trump has
more approved than disapprove on any single issue in this
state as far as I could tell. So basically, I mean,
the state doesn't like Colorado doesn't like Trump, and we've
known that for a while. So then let's get to
the next thing, where, surprisingly to me, you asked favorable
(02:26):
or unfavorable about the Republican Party and the Democratic Party.
And I thought these results were fascinating, especially given how
much the state doesn't like Trump.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
Can you talk about that? Absolutely. We did two questions.
One was a measurement of job approval of the job
the Democrats are doing in Congress as well as Republicans.
But then we also asked you have a favorable or
unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party and really not since
two thousand and nine, ross you know, during Obama's first
couple of years in office, have we ever measured the
(02:59):
negative ratings of the Democratic Party, especially in Congress. Being
as high as seventy four percent disapprove of the job
they're doing in Congress, that's pretty fascinating and it really
tells us as well as their image right where Republicans.
Great Republicans aren't like seventy five percent approval, but they
are slightly better than the Democrats right now. And that's
(03:21):
that's that's pretty revealing, and it clearly I think political observers,
people that follow politics know that the Democratic parties had
a really hard time coming together with an alternative message
and alternative strategy to the Trump administration, and they're really
flat footed right now. What people are seeing, they're not liking,
(03:42):
and I just we consider it more or less a
wake up call for you know, Democrats. You know, I'm
not going to talk about at this time right now,
but the governor's race, you know what we may find
next year. However, they have a lot of work to do,
and those national bad numbers seem to be really having
an impact as well here in Colorado that you know,
(04:04):
for them to be successful in twenty six, this needs
to be addressed.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
So one of the other areas you ask about, and
we're gonna tie all this stuff together, but you asked
about economic questions. How do you feel about you know,
is the economy going to get better? Say the same,
get worse? And I'm seeing in your polling results fifty
seven percent of people say that the economy is going
to get worse. That's kind of split almost evenly between
(04:29):
probably gonna get worse, definitely going to get worse. Only
thirty five percent say it's probably are definitely going to
get better. So your survey shows a significant amount of negativity.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
About the economy.
Speaker 1 (04:41):
Tying it back to what you just said, what I
wonder about And this may be a little further than
what you're trying to do with your work, but if
you have an opinion, I would like to know it.
If people think the economy is not good, and assuming
that the economy is normally the number one thing people
vote on, we've got the Republicans in charge of everything
(05:03):
at the federal level and Democrats in charge of everything at.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
The state level.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
Who do voters blame when they feel that their number
one issue isn't going the way they want it to go.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Well, that's an excellent question, ROSSI isn't the way to
look at this. All incumbents should be on their guard
because voters in Colorado have a very sour opinion not
just of the national economy. They're not thrilled with the
tariff policies. They do believe it will make them cost
more goods. The number one issue on the economy is
(05:35):
obviously controlling the cost of living and inflation, which is
front and center, which did help out you know, Donald
Trump in twenty twenty four to defeat you know, Joe Biden.
But sure, I mean Governor Paulis we all know is
moving on. But for Michael Pennett, Phil Wiser whoever the
Republican nominees may be for governor. You know, typically when
(05:56):
you see these kinds of numbers being so bad on
the economy, let alone whether it will improve in twelve months,
that usually sets up well for an alternative candidate than
the party in power. And that's what we're going to
be watching, you know, and who knows who the Republican
nominee may be. But does it mean we're going to
go and have a surprise and Colorado has elects a
(06:17):
Republican governor. We're not saying that. And the generic measurements
we measured did not straight really from our typical d
plus ten to twelve point advantage ever since twenty sixteen ish.
But yes, excellent observation there ross where. Typically when the
economy is this bad and people's opinions of the economy
that bad, it sets up opportunities for alternative candidates that
(06:40):
are currently not in power. And like you said, we
have a federal Republican Republicans and control as they battle
to maintain control, you know, especially in the House, and
then here the Democrats, you know, they've been in control
for a very long time now, maybe people are ready
to look at some alternative solutions to addressing the state's
problems that they want to address.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
That's a really interesting point. So so what David is
saying is, rather than think about it as they're going
to blame the Republicans or they're going to blame the Democrats.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
If they're feeling bad.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
About what's going on, they'll blame whoever's in office now.
And it could be a very anti incumbent mood. David,
it seemed to me from time to time we get
very anti incumbent moods, and probably the first election of
Donald Trump, and actually both elections of Donald Trump were
significantly about anti incumbent, anti incumbent moods. I wonder what,
(07:34):
and this is not so much straight from this survey,
but just from your experience, can anti incumbent moods really
trump people's tribalism, like, you know, just voting for the
party that they always vote for it. How many people
who are Democrats would vote for a Republican because they're
(07:55):
in an anti incumbent mood. I mean, some clearly did
for Trump. And in this state we have a lot
of unaffiliated so it might be a little interesting in
that realm too.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
Absolutely, in one thing that we always look through a lens.
In Colorado, the unaffiliates are going to decide, really who's
gonna be in powered. They are nearly fifty percent of
registration now and in the twenty four election they finally
voted in those numbers. It's not going to be common
in our current politics where a Democrat will feel, you
(08:26):
know what, the inflation is so wrong, especially younger Democrats
eighteen to thirty four is an incredibly important subgroup of
voters that really determined twenty eighteen where hey, if you
ever wanted a whold elective office, if you ran as
a Democrat in twenty eighteen, you're gonna win. And that's
exactly what happened. Those younger voters turned out at presidential
levels where they made up nearly one out of four
votes cast. However, in twenty fourteen excuse me, twenty twenty four,
(08:51):
they did not vote as strongly as they did in
twenty twenty. In fact, one hundred thousand few of them voted.
They were clearly not as jazz to either vote on
Trump out in twenty twenty or they don't have a champion.
You know. The gold standard, which for Democrats is Barack Obama,
where him he was such an exciting candidate. You have
both sides where not only were there like I really
(09:12):
do not feel comfortable with the Republican candidate, but I'm
super excited about who we have. Are the Democrats going
to have a candidate that is making them super excited
so that twenty twenty six perhaps comes similar to what
happened in twenty eighteen, And I would say, right now
that's not the case. You know, they don't seem to
be as excited, even though they are frustrated about inflation.
(09:33):
They can't buy a home, they can't get a job.
AI's taking their jobs, like, there's a lot of headwinds
for that age group. Are they going to turn out
to make out one of four votes in twenty twenty six,
We don't know, but right now it doesn't appear to
be because they're not thrilled, you know, with what the
Democrats are serving up right now. Anyways, not to say
that whoever the dem nominee is here in Colorado, that's
(09:55):
kind of how I put it all together. Oz.
Speaker 1 (09:57):
To answer your question or talking with David Flaherty from
Magellan Strategies, the website is Magellanstrategies dot com. And if
you go to the website you can find this fascinating
research that we're talking about, the Colorado twenty twenty five
voter opinion survey. So I'll just follow up on a
couple of things you said. One, in twenty twenty four,
Donald Trump made huge inroads with young voters. He didn't
(10:20):
win them. I think he didn't win them, but he
did much better than he did before, which is I
think a very interesting thing. And you know, it seemed
to me, especially in twenty eighteen, I got the sense
that just because voters are unaffiliated, it doesn't mean they're
all really swing voters. There are plenty of unaffiliated voters
who are basically hardcore Dems and some who are Republicans.
(10:42):
But you don't need to be registered with a party
in Colorado because you can participate in the primary without it.
But it seemed like in twenty eighteen, as you mentioned,
lots of voters just voted for every Democrat they could
find because they hated.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
Trump so much.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
And I think that I think that dynam still exists
to some degree, but I share your expectation that it's
to a lesser degree.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
I agree yeah, I feel like it's kind of more
baked in and that Donald Trump's frame. You're right, and
that's the other thing that's also you cannot just dismiss
younger voters are really feeling inflation. They're the ones with
lower incomes, They're the ones that are trying to start
their lives, They're the ones that are trying to buy
a home. And just like how Donald Trump one in
(11:28):
twenty sixteen in one pockets of Democrats in rural areas
where economic growth and opportunity was just not even in existence.
There are shades of that, and like you said, Ross,
you know, caution this year he didn't win a majority
of them. But I feel that those younger voters were like, look,
I'm not thrilled about the way this guy goes about
(11:48):
his business. However, I'm looking at lower inflation and I'm
going to give him a try, just and cross my fingers.
I do think it's somewhere in that vein. Yeah, and
that makes sense to me as well. You know, it's
it's and until they really have a champion that's going
to come along, and we will see if that kind
that kind of candidate evolves. We don't know yet. But
that's what makes this interesting to political observers and people
(12:11):
that you know, follow politics in our state in nationally.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
So I say this next thing as observation and not
as criticism. The two leading Democratic candidates candidates for governor,
Michael Bennett and Phil Wiser, neither one of them is
an exciting candidate. And Phil and I are actually pretty
good friends. I don't know Michael Bennett. Phil and I
are pretty good friends. He's a very smart guy, he's
a very nice guy. He's wrong on a lot, but
(12:37):
he's not exciting. He's he's very much of an academic
kind of persona and and and Michael Bennett is too
in a way. And every once in a while, including
maybe a week ago, when Michael Bennett was questioning RFK Junior,
you know, he started yelling at him, and you kind
of get this feeling like Michael Bennett sometimes feels like
(12:57):
he needs to yell in order to.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Get people to pay attention or something.
Speaker 1 (13:01):
You could see a republic Republicans put out a candidate,
maybe Barb Kirkmeyer, for example, who might be a little
more a little more energy, a little more excitement. But man,
that's a big hill to overcome in a D plus
eleven state.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
I would agree Ross and in conventional wisdom, just to
touch on first about the Republican generic bell, we did
ask that question. I think conventional wisdom is that any
Republican that runs the best campaign, and you know, their
stealing of support though is still around forty five forty
six percent, and they will always struggle to get those
additional four or five points. Can Barbara Kirkmeyer or one
(13:39):
of the other primary candidates get out there and do it.
We will see the environment set up perfectly for them,
you know what I mean, to make an alternative case
on how they're going to address the problems facing people
in Colorado. Yeah, but getting back to the Democratic candidate,
You're absolutely right. I see Attorney General wiser at you know,
I go to a lot of you know, CCI conferences.
He's very approachable. He's very much a guy that I
(14:02):
think in his term has gone across the isle. Just
from my own personal work that we do with county
governments and that conservative county governments appreciate how he has
showed up on sex trafficking, fentanyl, and just law and
order issues. I also, I do not know Michael Bennett
you know what I mean. Either it's tougher when you
are a US senator at the Senate level, but his
(14:22):
presidential campaign I thought was perhaps a little bit more
interesting in the things he has fought for. I agree
he's always been kind of known, you know, when he
was like working at Denver Public schools as more of
a technocrat, if you will. But his twenty years in
you know, nearly twenty years in the Senate right there,
Neither of them are Barack Obama. And I'm just saying
Barack Obama if nobody's going to just replace that. But
(14:46):
I do agree with you know, Attorney General Wiser and
Senator Bennett right now are projecting their way. They go
about their business and try to achieve their goals and
represent Coloraden's is is different. It's kind of more problem
solving and keep their heads down and maybe not as exciting.
But again, but getting to Barb Kirkmeyer, very long time,
you know, Well County commissioner. She's done some very great
(15:08):
things in the Senate, I believe as non you know,
not blocking everything great. She's still from Well County, so
you know, long record, but I agree it it makes
this the sort of set up very interesting for twenty six.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
All right, last question for you, David in your new
Colorado twenty twenty five voter opinion survey and folks Magellan
Strategies dot Com to see this, is there something that
we haven't talked about yet that really surprised you and like, wow,
this is this is interesting.
Speaker 2 (15:37):
Two things ross One, you know, and I know I
need to add this just to the blog post, but
it's in our presentation. Is that you know, we did
an image rating question for you know, former Vice President
Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Congresswoman Alexandria Acostio Cortez,
and I hope I got her name right AOC, as
(15:58):
she's properly known, and that AOC, you know, with thirty
thousand people come to hear her speak in our state
earlier this year, that's pretty amazing. Her image rating was
the best of all of the democrats measured. And I
feel that even independence will give her the time of
day of like, tell me about your brand of populism
without her being so tied to Bernie Sanders or just
so far left. And I'm not saying she's becoming a moderate,
(16:20):
but her having a better image rate than Kamala or
Gavin Newsom is pretty surprising. Second most important thing the
question on Ukraine and aid to Ukraine. I find it
absolutely fascinating that Donald Trump in ten years has turned
Republicans or a majority of Republicans into more of an
isolation party when it comes to projecting strength in the
(16:44):
kind of George W. Bush neo conservative thing, and that
Democrats are the number one party when it comes to
going as far as possible and supporting the Ukraine. I
find that amazing that Donald Trump has actually changed, you know,
Republican party that used to be, you know, after nine
to eleven, we're going over there and boots on the
(17:04):
ground and we're projecting world strength everywhere where Donald Trump
and his party, and we know Maggie has been like,
I think we don't need to do that anymore. I
don't think we need to do that. And there's a
great discussion around that. But how many Republicans are like yep,
I am in isolationist Republican which harks back to the
days of like nineteen thirty. I find that utterly fascinating
that Republicans are much more reserve about foreign eight in
(17:26):
all its forms. Fascinating.
Speaker 1 (17:28):
Yeah, that's a great insight, and you know, probably part
of a potential bigger conversation that I'm sure political scientists
will look at of just how much the Republican Party
has changed in recent years.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
That's a very jarring example. Free trade.
Speaker 1 (17:42):
Also Republicans turning against free trade because of Trump. Another
very interesting one. David Flaherty runs Magellan Strategies. You got
to check out this Colorado twenty twenty five voter opinion survey.
It really is fascinating. It's up at Magellanstrategies dot com.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
Yes, to make sure that it's under the blog. It's
not front and center in case some people go to
Magellan Strategies. I just if you go to our blog,
you'll see it's posted right there. It's the most recent
post and it's all in there for you to download view,
make up your own mind. We covered a ton of
stuff because there's a ton of stuff going on, but
I just really appreciate having the opportunity to discuss it,
(18:19):
and I appreciate that you appreciate the research. There's a
lot of interesting things in here.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
Absolutely, Okay, Magellan Strategies dot Com click where it says
blog and you will find this. David, thanks for your time,
really fascinating research and a great conversation.
Speaker 2 (18:31):
Appreciate it. Good to see your Row Starctisians all right,
you two
The Ross Kaminsky Show News
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