Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
So pleased to welcome back to Kowa my friend Katie McFarland,
who may be the most requested guests on the show.
And when we go some weeks or heaven forbid a
few months without kat boy, do I hear it?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
And Katie has generously made.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
Herself available us today even though she's traveling and she's
on a different time zone from her usual time zone
and giving a talk somewhere and all, and so, as always,
thanks thanks for making time for us, appreciate it so much.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Well, it's a pleasure.
Speaker 4 (00:31):
Thank you so much for having me on your very
thoughtful and insightful show.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
One quick question for you before we get to the
Israel Gaza thing, And if you don't have an opinion
or haven't really watched the news that much this morning
and don't really have anything to say, that's fine. But
I was wondering if you had any thoughts on what.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Pete Hegseth said to the military this morning.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
I know you're more foreign policy than military, but there's
an overlap there and I just wondered if you had
a thought.
Speaker 4 (00:55):
Yeah, I mean, I work forever at the Pentagon, so
I know the sort of mentality of the military, and
he says, look, we're running We're the Department of War.
We're not the Department of Peace or DEI or even Defense.
We're the Department of War, and our jobs we're going
to defend them. We're going to have the military equipment
and strategy to defend the country, to kill bad guys,
(01:17):
to fight the enemies. And what he didn't say was
and thereby with that capability, what we do is deter war.
But that is the Trump doctrine. I think the president
sounded like the President's remarks fell a little flat, and
I think in part it's because all those generals were assembled,
they're not knowing what they were assembled for. It had
been rumored in the media and other places that Pete
(01:39):
Hexseth wants to cut about twenty percent of the flag
officer rank, that we've become too top heavy in the military.
And so I'm sure that none of them were in
a laughing mood. They were all wondering if the ax
was about to fall on them. So I think it
was a really important thing to do. And I think
that what happens now is, you know, the administrator has
been in long and up to sort of reevaluate the
(02:02):
military strategy, the foreign policy strategy, and now they're implementing
both of those, and those are the guys who are
there in the room who are going to be implementing them.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
That's I'm with you on all that.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
And just in terms of quality of presentation, I will
say that Pete Hegseth was was was very good and
probably better than I expected. And President Trump like it
was a little rambling and sort of off topic and
probably a little worse, a little worse than I expected,
but whatever, that's not important. The main thing is what
(02:32):
Hegseth said and what he's trying to trying to get
the military back on mission, which I thought was great.
So it actually worked out very well having you we
we originally going to have you yesterday. We got you
today instead, and I think it actually works out better
because now we've had some hours to try to digest
a little bit of this Israel Gaza peace Plan, which
(02:52):
I actually think it's kind of a remarkable document. And
I've been a little skeptical of of wit Cough a
little bit. Jared Kush has done some good things already
with the Abraham Accords. I don't know that this is
going to work. But it seems to me like hard
to do a lot better as a proposal. But you're
the experts to tell me what you think.
Speaker 3 (03:12):
This is earth shatteringly brilliant.
Speaker 4 (03:15):
And it's not just the proposal that they put in
front of Hamas in the Arab world yesterday, it's the
steps leading to it. Let me go back to eight ten,
twenty forty years ago. The thought was always that if
you were going to have Middle East peace in large,
you rit large, it would start with figuring out the
Palestinian problem. It would start with a peace between Israel
(03:39):
and the Palestinians. And it never worked because that was
never going to the Palestinians, whether they were Yaser Arafat
in the PLO forty years ago or Hamas today in
the same areas, they don't want peace, They want the
obliteration of Israel. So since the half of you know,
you don't get peace without both parties, and since the
Palestinian part of the peace process was never going to
(04:03):
be to give up its weapons, never going to be
to give up its pies, even when he asked their
airfat was offered in the Clinton administration. Just unbelievable goodness
of a deal and something that it could live with
and could have thrived with. It wouldn't take it so
fast forward to where we are today, and I think
President Trump understood that the road to piece does not
(04:23):
run through It does not run through the Palestinian territories,
it doesn't run through Gossa. It runs to a lot
of other capitals, and then eventually it gets there. So
the first term, as she pointed out with I'm Jure
Kushner and the Abraham chorus, that was that was an
opportunity for the United States to support the younger generation
(04:46):
the Middle East. When we came into office in the
beginning of the Trump term, Saudi Arabia, the golf Arabs
were all in the middle of a generational shift of power.
The old guys were up. You know, we're too old.
The young guys were coming in but very inexperienced. And
so which side does the United States back? Jared Kushner
wanted to back the younger guys who were in their thirties.
(05:07):
He said, well, they may be young, but they're the
same age as their majority of their very big baby
boom population. And he said that that those leaders have
been educated in the West. They were comfortable in open societies.
They were comfortable with women's rice, they were comfortable with
a diversified economy, and they knew they had to diversify
their economy because of Trump's energy policies, because of fracking,
(05:31):
because of oil and natural gas.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
The United States now has.
Speaker 4 (05:35):
That we could always, we could dominate the price of
oil and natural gas. It would never be high again
because of simple supply and demand. We had so much
more supply than anybody had ever thought the United States
was capable of. So the golf Arab countries, the UAE,
the Saudi's others, they said, Okay, we know we need
(05:55):
a diversified economy. How do we do that. We need investment.
How do we get an investment. Nobody's going to invest
in a war torn part of the world.
Speaker 3 (06:03):
We need peace. We need peace with Israel.
Speaker 4 (06:05):
That was the genesis of the GalF Arabs, who had
opposed peace with Israel for fifty years. That was the
genesis of them swinging over to peace with Israel. And
it's been very effective that travel between the two areas,
there's trade.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
Everybody's benefited.
Speaker 4 (06:23):
Israel's benefited, the Saudis, even though they're not signatories to
the abraham Acorus.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
They were the prime movers in the abraham A Chorus.
Speaker 4 (06:30):
But all of those countries have enjoyed just a boom,
an economic boom as well as an investment boom, and
more open societies, much closer relations to the United States.
Speaker 3 (06:41):
So that was part one of the big chess move.
Speaker 4 (06:43):
Then part two of the chess move comes in Trump's
second term, which is Israel obliterating Hamas's adversary, I mean
it's proxies, So Hezbelah Hamas, the Hooties, the missile defense
shield that was sin Syria. Israel took all of those out,
and then when October seventh happened, Israel concluded, I think
(07:04):
that there was no piece to be had ever with Hamas,
and so then they've then pursued this very different approach.
So it was to take Iran, which remember the golf
Arabs are no longer Israel's enemies, but Iran still is.
And what does Iran have money because of oil and
it has proxies. Israel takes out the proxies so they're
not threatening Israel or the world anymore. And then the
(07:27):
United States under Trump two point zero puts sanctions back
on Iran, isolates Iran, make sure the price of oil
is low, Iran's getting no income to pay for anything,
much less as proxies. And then the United States that
takes out Iran's nuclear program.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
So then you have an.
Speaker 4 (07:45):
Emasculated Iran, no money, no friends, no allies, no nothing.
So then we're on to sort of what's the next
step of all of this, Well, to finally get Hamas
to come to the table. Why is Hamas always resisted
coming to the table.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
They've never had to. They've always had.
Speaker 4 (08:02):
Monetary support, whether it's come from the Golf Arabs forty
years ago or from Iran five years ago. But now
Hamas is alone, isolated, no money, no nothing. And Katar,
which was really the one country that where the Hamas
could could hide out in safety under the auspices of
(08:24):
maybe having negotiations, even even Katar changed his mind. And
so when President Trump two days ago announced this new
peace plan, the important part wasn't.
Speaker 3 (08:35):
The specifics of it.
Speaker 4 (08:37):
It was that all the Arabs endorsed it, Egypt endorsed it,
Katar endorsed it, the Saudis endorsed it, Turkey and everybody
in the region endorsed it. So now it leads Almas
with no friends, no supporters, and no way out, and
the terms of the agreement are immediacy's fire, hostages.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
Come home home.
Speaker 4 (09:01):
The next part of it is that Hamas lays down
its arms, an interim government is formed, probably under an
international interim government, maybe under the leadership of former British
Prime Minister Tony Blair. Israel withdraw us from the Gaza.
The government, the new government or governing body of Gaza
(09:22):
will be this international maybe Tony Blair had of it,
but it'll include countries from the region, and it'll include technocrasts,
the guys are going to keep the water on, the
guys who are going to rebuild the roads, with the
idea that then Hamas is gone, Hamas is there's no
military for Hamas, there's no aid for Hamas, there's no
weapons for Hamas. Hamas is dead, and then the Palestinian
(09:46):
people have an opportunity to rebuild. Not paid for by
the United States, not paid for by Israel, not with
American occupation, not with Israeli occupation, but paid for and
run by the countries in the Middle East, all the
countries who have most recently signed up to be members
of the Abraham of Corus.
Speaker 3 (10:05):
I mean, it's just everything is now in place.
Speaker 4 (10:09):
And if you'll see that an amazing thing that President
Trump had happened yesterday, two days ago. But bib dant Yea,
who came to the US and went to the White House,
what was the first thing he did.
Speaker 3 (10:20):
He made a phone call to the head.
Speaker 4 (10:23):
Of a mirror of Katar and he said, I'm sorry
that we had that is action that we bomb to
kill the Hamas leaders in your country. We'll never do
that again. So all of a sudden, Katar, the last
hold out of supporting Hamas, is now neutralized. So Hamas
in the next three days has a decision do they
want to go along with this new piece plan, and
(10:45):
if they don't, all these countries, the United States and
the Arab countries have more or less signed on to Okay, Israel,
go finish the job, kill off all of Hamas's remaining.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
We're talking with Kat McFarland, former Deputy National Security Advisor
in Donald Trump's firstdministration and a foreign policy hand for
for many many years and one of my my very
favorite guests on these topics.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
So a couple things I'll add to that.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
So I think I hope that if Hamas says no,
that the fact that the Arab countries have agreed to
all this.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
The way this is structured.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
If Hamas says no, it'll be obvious to absolutely everybody
that Hamas and not Israel, is the obstruction to peace,
and therefore it could continue. It could allow the continuation
of something like the Abraham Accords, which you know, if
Donald Trump's first.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
Term had been a year longer, I think.
Speaker 1 (11:42):
There's a decent chance that Saudi Arabia would have been signed. Right,
So if if Hamas says no, maybe they start pursuing
that on the side while doing whatever they're going to do.
To Hamas, do you want to say anything about that?
And then I got another.
Speaker 4 (11:56):
Question, Yeah, but Hamas, I mean with what where's AASA's
money right now?
Speaker 3 (12:02):
It's not coming from the UN.
Speaker 4 (12:04):
You know, Hamas was stealing the humanitarian supplies the UN
was bringing in. They were stealing what it was like
ninety seven percent were captured by armed guards and disappeared.
They never got to the Palestinian people. So that's stride up.
It's now being distributed directly to the Palestinian people. That
aid is going directly to the Palestinian people, not through Hamas.
(12:27):
The Hamas's bank rollers always follow the money ross.
Speaker 3 (12:30):
It's you know, war is expensive.
Speaker 4 (12:32):
So where's where is their big donor their most recent
big donor. Well that's Iran, and Iran is broke, doesn't
have any money or anywhere fold to pay for anything
for Hamas.
Speaker 3 (12:44):
It's big protector.
Speaker 4 (12:45):
Hamas's protector is cuked and cutter in Doha, and they
are They've now flip sides. So I don't I mean,
if Hamas is going to cause trouble, it's going to
cause trouble with whatever they've got.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
Left right right right exactly. And they might right might
They might want to just fight to the bitter end.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
The street fighters who want to be martyrs and hate
everything and everybody. They're kind of nihilists in there in
their own way. But what I what I kind of
wanted to ask you to respond to more was not
so much whether Hamas will say yes or no, but
what you think the prospects are for continuing the Abraham
Accords and stuff like that to build a much broader
piece in the Middle East.
Speaker 4 (13:23):
I think it's the future is golden. If Hamas remember
Hamas is not the Palestinian Simas is this caggle of
you know, vampires on the top of the Palestinian people.
If Hamas is gone, then the Arab countries together, not once,
they're all going to together work together in this multi
Arab force to rebuild Gaza, rebuild probably the Palaeston on
(13:48):
the West Bank, to govern it together. And so they're
already working together with Israel in a defacto way, and
so du jure I would think the next step is
that they do come to the other and the Abraham
Accords just adds, you know, another five or ten countries
in the next couple of months. Now, remember when before
October seventh, there was a trinnering event before October seventh,
(14:11):
and that was when Brett Bear Fox Knew sat down
with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, the guy really
runs things, Mohammed and Selman, and he said, you're negotiating
with Israel to join the Abraham Accords.
Speaker 3 (14:24):
How's that going?
Speaker 4 (14:25):
And the Crown Prince said, oh, I think we're quite close.
I think we're within a couple of weeks. And then
the next night Brettbhaar sat down with Bane who said
what do you think you're the other side of this equation,
And he said, oh, we're very close, you know, we're
almost ready to sign. And then sure enough around to
sabotage that, Iran unleashed Hamas and that's when the massacres
(14:47):
came on October seventh. Why did Hamas do that? Why
did Iran do it? They wanted to scupper and sabotage
any idea that the Saudis could join the Abraham Accords.
Now with Hamas a sidelined, now potentially obliterated, there's nothing
standing in the way of all of these countries signing
the Abraham Accords.
Speaker 1 (15:06):
All right, we got got about four minutes left. One
quick question. Have you ever met NBS?
Speaker 4 (15:12):
I met him briefly in the first Trump term, Yes,
and I realized, you know, he came into the White House.
They didn't meet in you know, bells and whistles. They
were really kind of just quietly negotiating and talking to
Jared Kushner and President Trump, you know, long flowing robes.
I've also met him at the Council on Foreign Relations.
(15:33):
He's young, he exudes an enormous amount of self confidence.
He's a very tall guy. I mean physically large guy,
and so you look at him and you don't think, oh,
this guy's in his thirties. He just in some ways
really exudes the confidence of someone who knows what he
wants to do and it may be tough to do it,
but he's he seems quite committed to bringing his people
(15:56):
into a very different age. And then when you look
at what he's done Ross, what is the emphasize He's
not emphasized. But we're gonna like Pompa oil and make money.
So we want to be the high tech center of
the Middle East. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
Yeah. In fact, the Saudi.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
Sovereign Wealth Fund, along with a few other partners including
Jared Pushner. Kushner's firm, just announced yesterday that they're buying
Electronic Arts, this massive video gaming company for fifty five
billion dollars, the biggest ever in unadjusted dollars, the biggest
ever taking a company a publicly traded company private. And
(16:29):
the Saudis are involved in golf. They set up this
alternative to to the PGA. They're and they're taking a
big role in Ultimate Fighting with Dana White. I mean,
they're doing all of this like cultural and sports and
entertainment stuff.
Speaker 2 (16:43):
It's it's fascinating, all right. So I got about two
minutes left.
Speaker 1 (16:47):
The Russia Ukraine war has not been much in American
news in recent weeks.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
There have been some very large.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
Russian attacks on Ukraine, including in Kiev a couple of
nights ago. President Trump express is ongoing for frustration, but
hasn't been doing very much about it, although in some
of his language, he's been giving Europeans not just permission
but encouragement to help Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
And even this is the thing I want to ask.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
You about, changed his language a couple of days ago,
where he started talking about Ukraine potentially recapturing territory, where
all the previous conversation has been let's end the war,
like where the lines are right now? And I noticed
that because you know, I noticed things like that, because
I study this stuff almost not almost as much as you,
but more than the average bear. What do you make
(17:35):
of that situation?
Speaker 4 (17:37):
I think I think President Trump is scrambling the Putin's brain. Right,
So Putin has gotten used to hearing Trump saying I
want peace, come to the negotiating table, we'll find.
Speaker 3 (17:46):
A way forward.
Speaker 4 (17:47):
And he's tried everything he's given Putin every off ramp,
every opportunity, and Putin's rebuffed it and every single time,
and Putin's in fact grown.
Speaker 3 (17:54):
Closer to the Chinese. So what's Trump trying to do now?
Speaker 4 (17:57):
I think he's trying to scramble Putin's brain saying, hey, look,
you don't want to do it with us in this
way where we can have a good ongoing relationship and
you got Russian relationship after the Ukraine War. Do you
want to do this? Okay, then we're going to help Ukraine.
We're going to give well, we're going to help NATO.
We are going to sell. Remember, but the big difference
here is that Trump's not paying for this. You know,
(18:19):
the Guide administration was writing in a check of one
hundred and one hundred billion, one hundred and thirty billion dollars.
We were giving Ukraine all these weapons and aid with
no accountability. But President Trump has said, Okay, we'll give
you that stuff, but we're selling it to you. We're
providing it, but we're selling it. Europe you buy it, NATO,
you buy it. Then you do whatever you want with it.
(18:39):
But when President Trump has said that basically saying, look, Ukraine,
the Ukraine War, Russia do you want to join with
us in some kind of a deal. If not, I'm
going to continue to sell me in a no skin
off my back.
Speaker 3 (18:51):
I'm going to.
Speaker 4 (18:51):
Continue to sell weapons to NATO. NATO's going to continue
to supply Ukraine, and then you're going to fight forever
and you Russia are going to EVENTU feel somewhere I'll pinch.
Speaker 1 (19:02):
Yeah, I've got a few seconds left, just trying. I
think you know, I took a class in college from
the big new Brazinski and maybe not my favorite national
security advisor, but just have a chance to take a
class from a national security advisor is pretty.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
Interesting, right, And so my my thinking on this, and.
Speaker 1 (19:20):
I want you to just tell me quickly whether you
think I'm kind of close or way off base or whatever.
Is that this this rhetoric from Zelenski and Trump about
Ukraine not just playing for a tie, but playing to
win and taking territory back, I think is certainly escalatory language,
and I think it's necessarily so. And a lot of
(19:40):
people are always, you know, afraid of escalatory language.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
I don't think there's a choice right now.
Speaker 1 (19:46):
So I'm gonna let you sum up here and we'll
we'll we'll end on your final thoughts on this.
Speaker 4 (19:51):
Is that it you know, it hasn't worked to give
it me off ramps, so so Trump's giving escalatory language,
and now Putin's got to be thinking this one through.
Oh I thought I had Donald Trump in my corner.
Maybe I don't. Maybe I've got to rethink this so
it doesn't work. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't work,
but at least it's trying something different because the all
thing was not working.
Speaker 3 (20:09):
So I think you're right.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
Couldn't agree more. KT.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
McFarland one of our very very favorite guests and incredible
expert on foreign policy.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
She's traveling now, going to give a talk tonight.
Speaker 1 (20:20):
I'm very grateful for you making time for us from
a hotel room. I know you don't have to do that,
and you're much in demand, so thanks so much for
doing that.
Speaker 3 (20:28):
It's a pleasure. Thank you, Ross, Keep up the good
work all right.
Speaker 2 (20:31):
Good to see you, KT, and go Navy Keet Army
So pleased to welcome back to Kowa my friend Katie McFarland,
who may be the most requested guests on the show.
And when we go some weeks or heaven forbid a
few months without kat boy, do I hear it?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
And Katie has generously made.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
Herself available us today even though she's traveling and she's
on a different time zone from her usual time zone
and giving a talk somewhere and all, and so, as always,
thanks thanks for making time for us, appreciate it so much.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Well, it's a pleasure.
Speaker 4 (00:31):
Thank you so much for having me on your very
thoughtful and insightful show.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
One quick question for you before we get to the
Israel Gaza thing, And if you don't have an opinion
or haven't really watched the news that much this morning
and don't really have anything to say, that's fine. But
I was wondering if you had any thoughts on what.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Pete Hegseth said to the military this morning.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
I know you're more foreign policy than military, but there's
an overlap there and I just wondered if you had
a thought.
Speaker 4 (00:55):
Yeah, I mean, I work forever at the Pentagon, so
I know the sort of mentality of the military, and
he says, look, we're running We're the Department of War.
We're not the Department of Peace or DEI or even Defense.
We're the Department of War, and our jobs we're going
to defend them. We're going to have the military equipment
and strategy to defend the country, to kill bad guys,
(01:17):
to fight the enemies. And what he didn't say was
and thereby with that capability, what we do is deter war.
But that is the Trump doctrine. I think the president
sounded like the President's remarks fell a little flat, and
I think in part it's because all those generals were assembled,
they're not knowing what they were assembled for. It had
been rumored in the media and other places that Pete
(01:39):
Hexseth wants to cut about twenty percent of the flag
officer rank, that we've become too top heavy in the military.
And so I'm sure that none of them were in
a laughing mood. They were all wondering if the ax
was about to fall on them. So I think it
was a really important thing to do. And I think
that what happens now is, you know, the administrator has
been in long and up to sort of reevaluate the
(02:02):
military strategy, the foreign policy strategy, and now they're implementing
both of those, and those are the guys who are
there in the room who are going to be implementing them.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
That's I'm with you on all that.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
And just in terms of quality of presentation, I will
say that Pete Hegseth was was was very good and
probably better than I expected. And President Trump like it
was a little rambling and sort of off topic and
probably a little worse, a little worse than I expected,
but whatever, that's not important. The main thing is what
(02:32):
Hegseth said and what he's trying to trying to get
the military back on mission, which I thought was great.
So it actually worked out very well having you we
we originally going to have you yesterday. We got you
today instead, and I think it actually works out better
because now we've had some hours to try to digest
a little bit of this Israel Gaza peace Plan, which
(02:52):
I actually think it's kind of a remarkable document. And
I've been a little skeptical of of wit Cough a
little bit. Jared Kush has done some good things already
with the Abraham Accords. I don't know that this is
going to work. But it seems to me like hard
to do a lot better as a proposal. But you're
the experts to tell me what you think.
Speaker 3 (03:12):
This is earth shatteringly brilliant.
Speaker 4 (03:15):
And it's not just the proposal that they put in
front of Hamas in the Arab world yesterday, it's the
steps leading to it. Let me go back to eight ten,
twenty forty years ago. The thought was always that if
you were going to have Middle East peace in large,
you rit large, it would start with figuring out the
Palestinian problem. It would start with a peace between Israel
(03:39):
and the Palestinians. And it never worked because that was
never going to the Palestinians, whether they were Yaser Arafat
in the PLO forty years ago or Hamas today in
the same areas, they don't want peace, They want the
obliteration of Israel. So since the half of you know,
you don't get peace without both parties, and since the
Palestinian part of the peace process was never going to
(04:03):
be to give up its weapons, never going to be
to give up its pies, even when he asked their
airfat was offered in the Clinton administration. Just unbelievable goodness
of a deal and something that it could live with
and could have thrived with. It wouldn't take it so
fast forward to where we are today, and I think
President Trump understood that the road to piece does not
(04:23):
run through It does not run through the Palestinian territories,
it doesn't run through Gossa. It runs to a lot
of other capitals, and then eventually it gets there. So
the first term, as she pointed out with I'm Jure
Kushner and the Abraham chorus, that was that was an
opportunity for the United States to support the younger generation
(04:46):
the Middle East. When we came into office in the
beginning of the Trump term, Saudi Arabia, the golf Arabs
were all in the middle of a generational shift of power.
The old guys were up. You know, we're too old.
The young guys were coming in but very inexperienced. And
so which side does the United States back? Jared Kushner
wanted to back the younger guys who were in their thirties.
(05:07):
He said, well, they may be young, but they're the
same age as their majority of their very big baby
boom population. And he said that that those leaders have
been educated in the West. They were comfortable in open societies.
They were comfortable with women's rice, they were comfortable with
a diversified economy, and they knew they had to diversify
their economy because of Trump's energy policies, because of fracking,
(05:31):
because of oil and natural gas.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
The United States now has.
Speaker 4 (05:35):
That we could always, we could dominate the price of
oil and natural gas. It would never be high again
because of simple supply and demand. We had so much
more supply than anybody had ever thought the United States
was capable of. So the golf Arab countries, the UAE,
the Saudi's others, they said, Okay, we know we need
(05:55):
a diversified economy. How do we do that. We need investment.
How do we get an investment. Nobody's going to invest
in a war torn part of the world.
Speaker 3 (06:03):
We need peace. We need peace with Israel.
Speaker 4 (06:05):
That was the genesis of the GalF Arabs, who had
opposed peace with Israel for fifty years. That was the
genesis of them swinging over to peace with Israel. And
it's been very effective that travel between the two areas,
there's trade.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
Everybody's benefited.
Speaker 4 (06:23):
Israel's benefited, the Saudis, even though they're not signatories to
the abraham Acorus.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
They were the prime movers in the abraham A Chorus.
Speaker 4 (06:30):
But all of those countries have enjoyed just a boom,
an economic boom as well as an investment boom, and
more open societies, much closer relations to the United States.
Speaker 3 (06:41):
So that was part one of the big chess move.
Speaker 4 (06:43):
Then part two of the chess move comes in Trump's
second term, which is Israel obliterating Hamas's adversary, I mean
it's proxies, So Hezbelah Hamas, the Hooties, the missile defense
shield that was sin Syria. Israel took all of those out,
and then when October seventh happened, Israel concluded, I think
(07:04):
that there was no piece to be had ever with Hamas,
and so then they've then pursued this very different approach.
So it was to take Iran, which remember the golf
Arabs are no longer Israel's enemies, but Iran still is.
And what does Iran have money because of oil and
it has proxies. Israel takes out the proxies so they're
not threatening Israel or the world anymore. And then the
(07:27):
United States under Trump two point zero puts sanctions back
on Iran, isolates Iran, make sure the price of oil
is low, Iran's getting no income to pay for anything,
much less as proxies. And then the United States that
takes out Iran's nuclear program.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
So then you have an.
Speaker 4 (07:45):
Emasculated Iran, no money, no friends, no allies, no nothing.
So then we're on to sort of what's the next
step of all of this, Well, to finally get Hamas
to come to the table. Why is Hamas always resisted
coming to the table.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
They've never had to. They've always had.
Speaker 4 (08:02):
Monetary support, whether it's come from the Golf Arabs forty
years ago or from Iran five years ago. But now
Hamas is alone, isolated, no money, no nothing. And Katar,
which was really the one country that where the Hamas
could could hide out in safety under the auspices of
(08:24):
maybe having negotiations, even even Katar changed his mind. And
so when President Trump two days ago announced this new
peace plan, the important part wasn't.
Speaker 3 (08:35):
The specifics of it.
Speaker 4 (08:37):
It was that all the Arabs endorsed it, Egypt endorsed it,
Katar endorsed it, the Saudis endorsed it, Turkey and everybody
in the region endorsed it. So now it leads Almas
with no friends, no supporters, and no way out, and
the terms of the agreement are immediacy's fire, hostages.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
Come home home.
Speaker 4 (09:01):
The next part of it is that Hamas lays down
its arms, an interim government is formed, probably under an
international interim government, maybe under the leadership of former British
Prime Minister Tony Blair. Israel withdraw us from the Gaza.
The government, the new government or governing body of Gaza
(09:22):
will be this international maybe Tony Blair had of it,
but it'll include countries from the region, and it'll include technocrasts,
the guys are going to keep the water on, the
guys who are going to rebuild the roads, with the
idea that then Hamas is gone, Hamas is there's no
military for Hamas, there's no aid for Hamas, there's no
weapons for Hamas. Hamas is dead, and then the Palestinian
(09:46):
people have an opportunity to rebuild. Not paid for by
the United States, not paid for by Israel, not with
American occupation, not with Israeli occupation, but paid for and
run by the countries in the Middle East, all the
countries who have most recently signed up to be members
of the Abraham of Corus.
Speaker 3 (10:05):
I mean, it's just everything is now in place.
Speaker 4 (10:09):
And if you'll see that an amazing thing that President
Trump had happened yesterday, two days ago. But bib dant Yea,
who came to the US and went to the White House,
what was the first thing he did.
Speaker 3 (10:20):
He made a phone call to the head.
Speaker 4 (10:23):
Of a mirror of Katar and he said, I'm sorry
that we had that is action that we bomb to
kill the Hamas leaders in your country. We'll never do
that again. So all of a sudden, Katar, the last
hold out of supporting Hamas, is now neutralized. So Hamas
in the next three days has a decision do they
want to go along with this new piece plan, and
(10:45):
if they don't, all these countries, the United States and
the Arab countries have more or less signed on to Okay, Israel,
go finish the job, kill off all of Hamas's remaining.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
We're talking with Kat McFarland, former Deputy National Security Advisor
in Donald Trump's firstdministration and a foreign policy hand for
for many many years and one of my my very
favorite guests on these topics.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
So a couple things I'll add to that.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
So I think I hope that if Hamas says no,
that the fact that the Arab countries have agreed to
all this.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
The way this is structured.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
If Hamas says no, it'll be obvious to absolutely everybody
that Hamas and not Israel, is the obstruction to peace,
and therefore it could continue. It could allow the continuation
of something like the Abraham Accords, which you know, if
Donald Trump's first.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
Term had been a year longer, I think.
Speaker 1 (11:42):
There's a decent chance that Saudi Arabia would have been signed. Right,
So if if Hamas says no, maybe they start pursuing
that on the side while doing whatever they're going to do.
To Hamas, do you want to say anything about that?
And then I got another.
Speaker 4 (11:56):
Question, Yeah, but Hamas, I mean with what where's AASA's
money right now?
Speaker 3 (12:02):
It's not coming from the UN.
Speaker 4 (12:04):
You know, Hamas was stealing the humanitarian supplies the UN
was bringing in. They were stealing what it was like
ninety seven percent were captured by armed guards and disappeared.
They never got to the Palestinian people. So that's stride up.
It's now being distributed directly to the Palestinian people. That
aid is going directly to the Palestinian people, not through Hamas.
(12:27):
The Hamas's bank rollers always follow the money ross.
Speaker 3 (12:30):
It's you know, war is expensive.
Speaker 4 (12:32):
So where's where is their big donor their most recent
big donor. Well that's Iran, and Iran is broke, doesn't
have any money or anywhere fold to pay for anything
for Hamas.
Speaker 3 (12:44):
It's big protector.
Speaker 4 (12:45):
Hamas's protector is cuked and cutter in Doha, and they
are They've now flip sides. So I don't I mean,
if Hamas is going to cause trouble, it's going to
cause trouble with whatever they've got.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
Left right right right exactly. And they might right might
They might want to just fight to the bitter end.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
The street fighters who want to be martyrs and hate
everything and everybody. They're kind of nihilists in there in
their own way. But what I what I kind of
wanted to ask you to respond to more was not
so much whether Hamas will say yes or no, but
what you think the prospects are for continuing the Abraham
Accords and stuff like that to build a much broader
piece in the Middle East.
Speaker 4 (13:23):
I think it's the future is golden. If Hamas remember
Hamas is not the Palestinian Simas is this caggle of
you know, vampires on the top of the Palestinian people.
If Hamas is gone, then the Arab countries together, not once,
they're all going to together work together in this multi
Arab force to rebuild Gaza, rebuild probably the Palaeston on
(13:48):
the West Bank, to govern it together. And so they're
already working together with Israel in a defacto way, and
so du jure I would think the next step is
that they do come to the other and the Abraham
Accords just adds, you know, another five or ten countries
in the next couple of months. Now, remember when before
October seventh, there was a trinnering event before October seventh,
(14:11):
and that was when Brett Bear Fox Knew sat down
with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, the guy really
runs things, Mohammed and Selman, and he said, you're negotiating
with Israel to join the Abraham Accords.
Speaker 3 (14:24):
How's that going?
Speaker 4 (14:25):
And the Crown Prince said, oh, I think we're quite close.
I think we're within a couple of weeks. And then
the next night Brettbhaar sat down with Bane who said
what do you think you're the other side of this equation,
And he said, oh, we're very close, you know, we're
almost ready to sign. And then sure enough around to
sabotage that, Iran unleashed Hamas and that's when the massacres
(14:47):
came on October seventh. Why did Hamas do that? Why
did Iran do it? They wanted to scupper and sabotage
any idea that the Saudis could join the Abraham Accords.
Now with Hamas a sidelined, now potentially obliterated, there's nothing
standing in the way of all of these countries signing
the Abraham Accords.
Speaker 1 (15:06):
All right, we got got about four minutes left. One
quick question. Have you ever met NBS?
Speaker 4 (15:12):
I met him briefly in the first Trump term, Yes,
and I realized, you know, he came into the White House.
They didn't meet in you know, bells and whistles. They
were really kind of just quietly negotiating and talking to
Jared Kushner and President Trump, you know, long flowing robes.
I've also met him at the Council on Foreign Relations.
(15:33):
He's young, he exudes an enormous amount of self confidence.
He's a very tall guy. I mean physically large guy,
and so you look at him and you don't think, oh,
this guy's in his thirties. He just in some ways
really exudes the confidence of someone who knows what he
wants to do and it may be tough to do it,
but he's he seems quite committed to bringing his people
(15:56):
into a very different age. And then when you look
at what he's done Ross, what is the emphasize He's
not emphasized. But we're gonna like Pompa oil and make money.
So we want to be the high tech center of
the Middle East. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
Yeah. In fact, the Saudi.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
Sovereign Wealth Fund, along with a few other partners including
Jared Pushner. Kushner's firm, just announced yesterday that they're buying
Electronic Arts, this massive video gaming company for fifty five
billion dollars, the biggest ever in unadjusted dollars, the biggest
ever taking a company a publicly traded company private. And
(16:29):
the Saudis are involved in golf. They set up this
alternative to to the PGA. They're and they're taking a
big role in Ultimate Fighting with Dana White. I mean,
they're doing all of this like cultural and sports and
entertainment stuff.
Speaker 2 (16:43):
It's it's fascinating, all right. So I got about two
minutes left.
Speaker 1 (16:47):
The Russia Ukraine war has not been much in American
news in recent weeks.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
There have been some very large.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
Russian attacks on Ukraine, including in Kiev a couple of
nights ago. President Trump express is ongoing for frustration, but
hasn't been doing very much about it, although in some
of his language, he's been giving Europeans not just permission
but encouragement to help Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
And even this is the thing I want to ask.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
You about, changed his language a couple of days ago,
where he started talking about Ukraine potentially recapturing territory, where
all the previous conversation has been let's end the war,
like where the lines are right now? And I noticed
that because you know, I noticed things like that, because
I study this stuff almost not almost as much as you,
but more than the average bear. What do you make
(17:35):
of that situation?
Speaker 4 (17:37):
I think I think President Trump is scrambling the Putin's brain. Right,
So Putin has gotten used to hearing Trump saying I
want peace, come to the negotiating table, we'll find.
Speaker 3 (17:46):
A way forward.
Speaker 4 (17:47):
And he's tried everything he's given Putin every off ramp,
every opportunity, and Putin's rebuffed it and every single time,
and Putin's in fact grown.
Speaker 3 (17:54):
Closer to the Chinese. So what's Trump trying to do now?
Speaker 4 (17:57):
I think he's trying to scramble Putin's brain saying, hey, look,
you don't want to do it with us in this
way where we can have a good ongoing relationship and
you got Russian relationship after the Ukraine War. Do you
want to do this? Okay, then we're going to help Ukraine.
We're going to give well, we're going to help NATO.
We are going to sell. Remember, but the big difference
here is that Trump's not paying for this. You know,
(18:19):
the Guide administration was writing in a check of one
hundred and one hundred billion, one hundred and thirty billion dollars.
We were giving Ukraine all these weapons and aid with
no accountability. But President Trump has said, Okay, we'll give
you that stuff, but we're selling it to you. We're
providing it, but we're selling it. Europe you buy it, NATO,
you buy it. Then you do whatever you want with it.
(18:39):
But when President Trump has said that basically saying, look, Ukraine,
the Ukraine War, Russia do you want to join with
us in some kind of a deal. If not, I'm
going to continue to sell me in a no skin
off my back.
Speaker 3 (18:51):
I'm going to.
Speaker 4 (18:51):
Continue to sell weapons to NATO. NATO's going to continue
to supply Ukraine, and then you're going to fight forever
and you Russia are going to EVENTU feel somewhere I'll pinch.
Speaker 1 (19:02):
Yeah, I've got a few seconds left, just trying. I
think you know, I took a class in college from
the big new Brazinski and maybe not my favorite national
security advisor, but just have a chance to take a
class from a national security advisor is pretty.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
Interesting, right, And so my my thinking on this, and.
Speaker 1 (19:20):
I want you to just tell me quickly whether you
think I'm kind of close or way off base or whatever.
Is that this this rhetoric from Zelenski and Trump about
Ukraine not just playing for a tie, but playing to
win and taking territory back, I think is certainly escalatory language,
and I think it's necessarily so. And a lot of
(19:40):
people are always, you know, afraid of escalatory language.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
I don't think there's a choice right now.
Speaker 1 (19:46):
So I'm gonna let you sum up here and we'll
we'll we'll end on your final thoughts on this.
Speaker 4 (19:51):
Is that it you know, it hasn't worked to give
it me off ramps, so so Trump's giving escalatory language,
and now Putin's got to be thinking this one through.
Oh I thought I had Donald Trump in my corner.
Maybe I don't. Maybe I've got to rethink this so
it doesn't work. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't work,
but at least it's trying something different because the all
thing was not working.
Speaker 3 (20:09):
So I think you're right.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
Couldn't agree more. KT.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
McFarland one of our very very favorite guests and incredible
expert on foreign policy.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
She's traveling now, going to give a talk tonight.
Speaker 1 (20:20):
I'm very grateful for you making time for us from
a hotel room. I know you don't have to do that,
and you're much in demand, so thanks so much for
doing that.
Speaker 3 (20:28):
It's a pleasure. Thank you, Ross, Keep up the good
work all right.
Speaker 2 (20:31):
Good to see you, KT, and go Navy Keet Army
The Ross Kaminsky Show News
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