Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Probably the most important market for most Americans probably the
real estate market. Yeah, a lot of people own some stocks,
but for most folks, you care about where you live.
If you own a house, it might be the most important,
most valuable thing you own. And so from time to
time I like to check in with my friend, the
(00:20):
excellent real estate agent Ed Prayther and talk about what's
going on in the real estate market around Denver and
up and down the Front Range. So we're going to
talk about that for a few minutes today, and we'll
also talk a little bit about our bet. But anyway, Hi, Ed,
good to see you.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Ross, I appreciate you, an unhappy new year to you,
and I'm happy to be here.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Let's jump right in. Interest rates have been pretty pretty
volatile in the last couple of months, but basically since
Trump got elected, and even after that Fed rate cut,
mortgage rates have gone higher. They take down a tiny
bit in recent days. What kind of impact, if any,
have you seen on the residential real estate market.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
The residential market is tied to two things primarily, and
that is employment and interest rates. So in a nutshell,
it's had a huge impact on the market and it's
part of the reason that you know, we're not seeing
the number of sales the amount of transactions is we'd hope,
we still expect that the total number of transactions will
(01:25):
increase in twenty twenty five. But part of that is
is an assumption that the rates are going to tike down,
even if it takes longer than expected. And of course
you and I have talked about this in the past.
You know, we all were hoping, even though there's there's
a loose correlation at bests, that the federal funds, you know,
the cut to the federal funds rate would lead to
(01:47):
mortgage rates coming down, and it's been sort of the opposite,
and especially since we've got a nice dip in rates
in mid September, it's been mostly up from there.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
One of the things that I haven't understood is how
prices have stayed so firm with interest rates going up
this much like I would have thought real estate in
the Denver And you said, like employment, and obviously it's
a supply and demand thing, but are you a little
surprised that mortgage rates went back over seven and prices
(02:22):
really haven't come down.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
I'm really surprised, I mean, like, really, really surprised knowing
that interest rates have such an effect on the market,
and we're seeing it now just by kind of the
velocity of sales going down. The natural assumption is that
you would see prices dip. Now, what would be really interesting,
ross is to see what happens over the coming months,
because when you and I looked at what had happened
(02:45):
in the month of December, we saw the amount of
active inventory dip significantly. But a big part of that
would be seasonality. You know, it's a perfect time to
pull the property off the market, get it freshened up,
new photographer, new marketing, put together, and then in most
cases relaunched. So we saw active inventory dip by quite
(03:05):
a bit, but I would expect that to increase significantly
over the next couple of months here. And with increased inventory,
if rates remain high, you would think that there's even
more pressure downward, pressure on pricing. But it's been resilient
this market to say the least.
Speaker 1 (03:24):
Okay, So what you just described is part of the
reason that I made the bet with you that I made.
And so what folks, what I want to explain here?
So Ed and ED and I made a bet and
was it just up or down or was there an
additional number or was it just higher or lower?
Speaker 2 (03:43):
No?
Speaker 1 (03:43):
Or was it a couple of percent?
Speaker 2 (03:45):
I think, you know, I mean, yeah, exactly right, and
our media and close price ended up at five hundred
and eighty thousand dollars. In our bet was that we're
going to see three percent appreciation in twenty twenty five.
We've got eleven months and change to see what happens here.
But these these high rates, you know, I still think
(04:09):
I'm in good shape, but we'll be watching closely. And
I want to remind us when we look back this
time last year, the median closed price at the end
of the year twenty twenty three was five point fifty
one nine three, Okay, so that's that's just above five
percent increase. And we had a lot of volatility, you know,
(04:31):
I mean, we had rates high for a lot of
the year, not all of the year. But you know,
with that in mind, it will be very interesting to
see what happens here in twenty twenty five. And of
course because of that, we're watching rates in the bond
market very closely.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
So yeah, at my ed ED is betting that the
Median I guess closed sale price for the year will
be up three percent from last year, and I'm saying
it'll be up less than three percent. For me, I
wouldn't actually surprise me if it's down for the year.
I hope I'm wrong because I bought a house.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
So we'll see.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
We only got about one minute left, Ed, And and
for those just joining, we're talking with Ed Prather, who's
my friend and an excellent real estate agent. And you know,
if you're thinking about selling a house, you can go
to Edgepraytherre dot com to get in touch with him
and his team. Can you. I don't know if it's
possible to really answer this question, but are there are
parts of the Front Range or the Denver metro area
(05:26):
that are particularly hot right now a lot of demand
and parts that are particularly not hot right now that
come to come to mind?
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Absolutely, And it's a long list in both directions. And
it's really interesting that you're bringing this up, Ross, because
I had a conversation with one of our listing agents
today and this is in sort of the Rappahoe Farms
area and there is no inventory ever over there, and
because of that, I mean, it's just it's an outlier.
(05:55):
And it it values we value the properties. The market
values properties differently in different sectors, and that's a good
reason to have the conversation because there's a number of
spots that are much stronger, much less inventory, the properties
are moving much quicker. And then there's areas where there's
a lot of inventory, and obviously if you want to
stand out, you're going to have to market and price
your property accordingly. So it's a it's a conversation for offline,
(06:19):
but we've got a ton of data around just that.
Speaker 1 (06:23):
Can you, I mean, are you can you name one
neighborhood that comes to mind in each way, like one
area of town that you think is really hot right now,
like a lot of demand not just blow supply, and
then maybe another area of town that you think could
be a lot harder to sell in.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
Well, sure, so I think generally, and we've talked about
this before. On the west side, we're just seeing, you know,
people are wanting to be closer to the mountains, you know,
have some of those views. So Lakewood in particular, and
especially sort of the southern piece of Lakewood, properties are
moving very very quickly. Part of that is some other
(07:02):
pieces that the decision making process like schools and such.
And then there is additional inventory or I don't know
if i'd call it a saturation, but more inventory in
say the old Town Aurora area, you know, so off
of call facts as you get close to Fitz Simmons,
there's good employment over there, but we're just seeing more
(07:22):
inventory right now, and so we're hoping that his rates
come down over the long term that we would see
that get absorbed over there as well. But right now,
the West Side continues to do very well as far
as inventory and pricing. Stay strong, folks.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
If you're thinking about selling a home, I have always
recommended that you get in touch with Ed Prather. Obviously
he knows the submarkets. He guarantees that he'll sell your
home at or above an agreed upon price, buy an
agreed upon date, or he will waive his commission. You
can get started at edpraytherer dot com at p R
A t h e R dot com. And thanks for
your time and expertise. Has always we'll talk well. I
(08:01):
guess I'll be seeing you for lunch soon, but thanks
for your time.
Speaker 2 (08:03):
Always a pleasure.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
Ross.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
Thank you
Probably the most important market for most Americans probably the
real estate market. Yeah, a lot of people own some stocks,
but for most folks, you care about where you live.
If you own a house, it might be the most important,
most valuable thing you own. And so from time to
time I like to check in with my friend, the
(00:20):
excellent real estate agent Ed Prayther and talk about what's
going on in the real estate market around Denver and
up and down the Front Range. So we're going to
talk about that for a few minutes today, and we'll
also talk a little bit about our bet. But anyway, Hi, Ed,
good to see you.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Ross, I appreciate you, an unhappy new year to you,
and I'm happy to be here.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Let's jump right in. Interest rates have been pretty pretty
volatile in the last couple of months, but basically since
Trump got elected, and even after that Fed rate cut,
mortgage rates have gone higher. They take down a tiny
bit in recent days. What kind of impact, if any,
have you seen on the residential real estate market.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
The residential market is tied to two things primarily, and
that is employment and interest rates. So in a nutshell,
it's had a huge impact on the market and it's
part of the reason that you know, we're not seeing
the number of sales the amount of transactions is we'd hope,
we still expect that the total number of transactions will
(01:25):
increase in twenty twenty five. But part of that is
is an assumption that the rates are going to tike down,
even if it takes longer than expected. And of course
you and I have talked about this in the past.
You know, we all were hoping, even though there's there's
a loose correlation at bests, that the federal funds, you know,
the cut to the federal funds rate would lead to
(01:47):
mortgage rates coming down, and it's been sort of the opposite,
and especially since we've got a nice dip in rates
in mid September, it's been mostly up from there.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
One of the things that I haven't understood is how
prices have stayed so firm with interest rates going up
this much like I would have thought real estate in
the Denver And you said, like employment, and obviously it's
a supply and demand thing, but are you a little
surprised that mortgage rates went back over seven and prices
(02:22):
really haven't come down.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
I'm really surprised, I mean, like, really, really surprised knowing
that interest rates have such an effect on the market,
and we're seeing it now just by kind of the
velocity of sales going down. The natural assumption is that
you would see prices dip. Now, what would be really interesting,
ross is to see what happens over the coming months,
because when you and I looked at what had happened
(02:45):
in the month of December, we saw the amount of
active inventory dip significantly. But a big part of that
would be seasonality. You know, it's a perfect time to
pull the property off the market, get it freshened up,
new photographer, new marketing, put together, and then in most
cases relaunched. So we saw active inventory dip by quite
(03:05):
a bit, but I would expect that to increase significantly
over the next couple of months here. And with increased inventory,
if rates remain high, you would think that there's even
more pressure downward, pressure on pricing. But it's been resilient
this market to say the least.
Speaker 1 (03:24):
Okay, So what you just described is part of the
reason that I made the bet with you that I made.
And so what folks, what I want to explain here?
So Ed and ED and I made a bet and
was it just up or down or was there an
additional number or was it just higher or lower?
Speaker 2 (03:43):
No?
Speaker 1 (03:43):
Or was it a couple of percent?
Speaker 2 (03:45):
I think, you know, I mean, yeah, exactly right, and
our media and close price ended up at five hundred
and eighty thousand dollars. In our bet was that we're
going to see three percent appreciation in twenty twenty five.
We've got eleven months and change to see what happens here.
But these these high rates, you know, I still think
(04:09):
I'm in good shape, but we'll be watching closely. And
I want to remind us when we look back this
time last year, the median closed price at the end
of the year twenty twenty three was five point fifty
one nine three, Okay, so that's that's just above five
percent increase. And we had a lot of volatility, you know,
(04:31):
I mean, we had rates high for a lot of
the year, not all of the year. But you know,
with that in mind, it will be very interesting to
see what happens here in twenty twenty five. And of
course because of that, we're watching rates in the bond
market very closely.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
So yeah, at my ed ED is betting that the
Median I guess closed sale price for the year will
be up three percent from last year, and I'm saying
it'll be up less than three percent. For me, I
wouldn't actually surprise me if it's down for the year.
I hope I'm wrong because I bought a house.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
So we'll see.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
We only got about one minute left, Ed, And and
for those just joining, we're talking with Ed Prather, who's
my friend and an excellent real estate agent. And you know,
if you're thinking about selling a house, you can go
to Edgepraytherre dot com to get in touch with him
and his team. Can you. I don't know if it's
possible to really answer this question, but are there are
parts of the Front Range or the Denver metro area
(05:26):
that are particularly hot right now a lot of demand
and parts that are particularly not hot right now that
come to come to mind?
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Absolutely, And it's a long list in both directions. And
it's really interesting that you're bringing this up, Ross, because
I had a conversation with one of our listing agents
today and this is in sort of the Rappahoe Farms
area and there is no inventory ever over there, and
because of that, I mean, it's just it's an outlier.
(05:55):
And it it values we value the properties. The market
values properties differently in different sectors, and that's a good
reason to have the conversation because there's a number of
spots that are much stronger, much less inventory, the properties
are moving much quicker. And then there's areas where there's
a lot of inventory, and obviously if you want to
stand out, you're going to have to market and price
your property accordingly. So it's a it's a conversation for offline,
(06:19):
but we've got a ton of data around just that.
Speaker 1 (06:23):
Can you, I mean, are you can you name one
neighborhood that comes to mind in each way, like one
area of town that you think is really hot right now,
like a lot of demand not just blow supply, and
then maybe another area of town that you think could
be a lot harder to sell in.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
Well, sure, so I think generally, and we've talked about
this before. On the west side, we're just seeing, you know,
people are wanting to be closer to the mountains, you know,
have some of those views. So Lakewood in particular, and
especially sort of the southern piece of Lakewood, properties are
moving very very quickly. Part of that is some other
(07:02):
pieces that the decision making process like schools and such.
And then there is additional inventory or I don't know
if i'd call it a saturation, but more inventory in
say the old Town Aurora area, you know, so off
of call facts as you get close to Fitz Simmons,
there's good employment over there, but we're just seeing more
(07:22):
inventory right now, and so we're hoping that his rates
come down over the long term that we would see
that get absorbed over there as well. But right now,
the West Side continues to do very well as far
as inventory and pricing. Stay strong, folks.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
If you're thinking about selling a home, I have always
recommended that you get in touch with Ed Prather. Obviously
he knows the submarkets. He guarantees that he'll sell your
home at or above an agreed upon price, buy an
agreed upon date, or he will waive his commission. You
can get started at edpraytherer dot com at p R
A t h e R dot com. And thanks for
your time and expertise. Has always we'll talk well. I
(08:01):
guess I'll be seeing you for lunch soon, but thanks
for your time.
Speaker 2 (08:03):
Always a pleasure.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
Ross.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
Thank you
The Ross Kaminsky Show News
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