11-5-24 *TOPIC* Beware the Blue or Red Mirage

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
I'm going to come back in a few minutes to
this idea of how to watch the election tonight and
the miragers. I'll give you a very short version right now,
and then i'll give you a longer, longer version a
couple of minutes. Short version is this. Different states have
different rules for when they are allowed to start counting
their early vote, their mail in vote, and typically now

(00:21):
it's not the effect's not going to be as big
this year. Typically there is a lot more Democrat early
vote than Republican early vote. That that gap is going
to be much narrower this year because Republicans figured out
that they were morons last time for refusing to vote
early and only going on election day. And you say, well,

(00:42):
why does that make them stupid? And the reason that
it makes them stupid is a lot of people will
It doesn't need to be a huge percentage. What if
it's one percent, right or two percent? Something comes up, right,
they get sick, their kid gets sick, their car breaks down,
and they can't get to the polling place, and they
end up not voting because they didn't vote early. Right,
So Republicans don't want to make that mistaken So but

(01:07):
just stick with me and assume that there is some
democratic advantage in early votes. If a state starts counting
early votes early, and then in their first release of
votes it includes a large percentage of the early mail
in votes because they started tabulating them let's say in

(01:30):
the morning or yesterday, then you will end up with
an initial result that is Democrat leaning. And then as
more Republicans tend to vote same day, you will see
Republicans start to catch up and maybe overcome the early
vote if Democrats were in the lead, let's say. And

(01:52):
then there are other states, and Pennsylvania was famous for
this last time. I guess I'm going into more detail
than I planned on, but I'm just gonna go ahead
with it. Then, so Sylvania was famous for this last time.
We had a similar kind of thing in Arizona. Although yeah, no,
let me hold on, let me get this right. No,
Arizona was the opposite of Pennsylvania. Okay, let me just

(02:14):
stick with Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania has a really, really dumb rule
where they don't start beginning to tabulate the early vote
until late in the day today. And what that means
is the first data that comes out of Pennsylvania is
the same day in person voting, and that tends to

(02:37):
lean Republican. And then over the course of the day,
and it's a big state, so it could be over
the course of the night as well, they start counting
the mail in votes that came in early because they
weren't allowed to count them earlier by state law, and
those lean Democrat. And so as those start getting tabulated,

(03:00):
did you see the initial Republican lead, for example, start
diminishing and maybe diminishing to the point that a Democrat
ends up winning the state. This is what happened to
Trump in twenty twenty, and his voters didn't understand how
they thought it was fraud, like how could you how
could you go to bed with Trump and the lead

(03:21):
and wake up with Biden in the lead? And that's
why that's why I remember remember in particular, remember in
twenty twenty how moronic the Republicans were telling their people,
don't vote early, don't vote by mail, you can't trust
it all. And many of their voters believed those lies,

(03:41):
and so they voted same day. And I don't know
how many Republicans didn't end up voting because they couldn't
make it same day, but anyway, they voted same day.
The same day vote in Pennsylvania gets counted first, and
so you see this large Republican advantage. And then over

(04:03):
the course of the evening, the two things happen. They
start counting the early mail in vote and some of
the larger Democrat counties because the typically the big cities
are Democrat counties, but they've got lots and lots of
votes to manage, so it can be a little bit
slower for a big county, a big blue county can

(04:26):
be a little bit slower to tabulate everything because they're
dealing with so much compared to a small rural county
that has nineteen thousand votes versus you know, the county
that has Philadelphia that might have a million and a
half votes. So both of those things happen at the
same time, and then over the course of the night,
what you end up realizing is that first look, where

(04:49):
it seemed like Trump was ahead was a red mirage, right.
And again, other states have different rules. I think Georgia,
for example, I think Georgia is going to be counting
for you're counting their mail in vote pretty early. Georgia
could have a bloomerage Georgia could have a situation where
it looks like a Harris win early on, and then
as they go on and count the same day in

(05:11):
person stuff Trump catches up. So in order to really
understand this stuff, you need to get a handle on
which states do which thing. And if I have time
to give you more detail about which states to look
at for this than I will. But in any case,

(05:32):
if you see a dynamic like this over the course
of the evening where you go to bed and one
candidate seems like they're ahead, and you wake up and
the other candidate has now surpassed, it's almost certainly this effect.
And it's either that that state dumped their early mail

(05:54):
in voting right at the top and so the same
day vote is now catching up up and that will
tend to show a gain by the Republican candidate over time,
or what Pennsylvania has. They do the same day stuff
as soon as possible, and they're more slowly counting the
mail in stuff over time because they're not allowed to

(06:16):
start until late in the day, and that will show
they're the Democrat gaining over time. But if you see
that kind of dynamic, and you probably will in one
state or another, although not as big as last time
because more Republicans are voting early. Do not assume it's
election fraud. It's not