Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
I am so pleased and privileged to be joined for
the first time on KOA by John Sweet. That's John
with no H, retired Army military intelligence officer who frequently
writes most of the time with a co author, Mark Toth,
who's going to be on some other time, and they
write about all the most important international affairs, geostrategic, military
(00:26):
kind of stuff going on in the world. And as
my listeners know, you know, in college, I majored in
foreign policy. I studied Soviet politics, I studied Chinese politics, I.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Studied nuclear strategy and national security.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
So I'm much more interested in this stuff than your
average talk show host. So I'm really looking forward to
this conversation. So John, thank you so much for making
time for us. And before we start, please tell us
about that logo that's on your shirt.
Speaker 3 (00:54):
Yeah, So for the radio audience, the logo I have
in my.
Speaker 4 (00:57):
Shirt is a picture of a Tory red Tory. It's Japanese,
it's uh it's the symbol of the unit.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
Guy served with an Hunter first Airborne Division.
Speaker 4 (01:06):
The Rocassans and the Rocassians were occupying force in Japan
at the conclusion of the Second World War and they
got their name Rokaissan, which name means umbrellas falling from
the sky. But this is the symbol that the Rocassans
thurber Gate Hunter first Airborne Division fall under.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
It looks either like maybe the front of a Japanese
temple opening or or the or a big version of
the letter pie.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Or something like that. But it's pretty cool. Uh oh,
where that.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
Unit is, wherever they're Rehember they are, you'll see the tory.
They bring it with them. It's it's always somewhere with them.
That's funny. All right.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
So we had a lot to talk about. You know,
we're cover some.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
Some combination of Iran, Russia and Syria. Let me let
me just start with a macro kind of question for you.
Isn't it remarkable? And you know, don't answer yes or
no even though I'm asking yes or no question, give
me a broader answer. But Hamas, okay, Hamas invaded Israel
(02:10):
in October of twenty twenty three, and the result of that,
as of now is that Hamas is almost gone, Hesbal
is almost gone, Asad is gone, Iran is vulnerable, and
the Middle East has changed to Israel's.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
Benefit after Hamas attacked them.
Speaker 4 (02:35):
What do you say about that absolutely. Hey, So Mark
and I have written on this subject a lot. In
one of the oracles, we wrote specifically about the October
seventh attack by Hamas on Israel. Is that it occurrent
obviously October seventh, that was Putin's birthday, that was the
seventieth birthday. In two days after that attack, Russia launched
(02:58):
the largest counterfeits that they had longed to that date, okay,
in the boss the Dumbos region. So the article itself
was Putin's fingerprints are on or or on the Hamas attack,
and we saw that in one way or another as
a diversion away from Ukraine long enough for Putin to
deal to do his counter attack, but at the same
(03:20):
time enabling Hamas to do what they did that day.
And granted we all understand that Hamas was operating under
the authorities of Iran in particular to IRGC, but Russia
had a lot to do with that.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
And if you go back and look at our article,
we talk about the cover that they were.
Speaker 4 (03:40):
Given, as far as financing, the cover that they were given,
as far as weapons that were used, the timing of.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
The operation and more.
Speaker 4 (03:48):
But yes, you're absolutely correct, it's the event that occurred.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
On that day, by you know, either a collusion.
Speaker 4 (03:57):
Or cooperation between Iran, Russia and and all of their
proxies has gotten us to the point where we are
today and once again proving uh that those who deal
or those who mess with with Israel have a have
a common fate and that's generally that that they're defeated.
And also, had Israel, you know, had Israel listen to
(04:21):
the advice or listen to the guidance that was provided
to them by Washington, d C. About what they could
deal with they should do or should not do, we
would not be where.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
We are today. We would actually probably have a stronger
his baller her Moss. But now what we have is
a complete.
Speaker 4 (04:37):
Shift them stands and Mark and I like to call
it the kaleidoscope effect, just a slight twist of the kaleidoscope.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
And everything in the Middle East has changed.
Speaker 4 (04:46):
Moss, has balahiher GC, Syria, Russia, influence in the region,
all that is changed by the events of October seventh.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
I love the cold metaphor. Yeah, that kaleidoscope metaphor is fabulous.
I have the article in front of me about Putin's fingerprints,
all over the Hamas attack, and just give me a
little short, short answers on this part, because I want
to make sure we get to a.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
Lot of a lot of stuff. Uh.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
But you talk about Hamas leaders having traveled to Moscow
like seven months before before the attack twice.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Okay, So.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
How how should we try to distinguish whether your theory
that Russia had some influence on Hamas is really interesting
and insightful or the product of a tinfoil hat, because
I've never heard anybody say that, And You're not.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
A tinfoil hat guy, I'm not saying that about you.
But like, let's say.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
Somebody had no idea who you were, and they read
this thing and they say Russia had something to do
with Hamas attacking that. I've never heard anyone else say it,
So give put a little more meat on those bones.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
So let's uh, let's let's let's step back a little bit.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
It's I RGC, right, I ran, and I ran working
with Russia. Okay, not necessarily Russia directly with Hamas, but
eventually Hamas, I believe, uh, through the through the multiple
trips of Hamas senior leadership to Moscow as far as Uh,
and we document the dates in which those occur, what
could have happened.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
Of course, we don't know for sure because it hasn't
been uh divulged uh or.
Speaker 4 (06:19):
Investigated I guess by other sources, government sources.
Speaker 3 (06:23):
I mean, it's probably still classified. But at some real
at some.
Speaker 4 (06:25):
Level, we have to believe that they were involved in
the planning process and that they were back reefing there
there they're Russian leaders and that the leaders of their
receiver were where to look.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
At that time, Russia was.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
Suffering pretty bad in the Ukraine. Ukraine's counterfeits have been
very effective. With the introduction of PI Mars. They were
pushing Russian forces out. Russian needed something, a diversion the
ship eyes away from from Ukraine. I think that all
along that Iran had been planning something to this effect,
(07:00):
but Russian enabled it. I'm not saying Russian planned it,
but Russia certainly enabled the actions that occurred. And as
you see, there's weapons that were there, there was one
of that was transferred, there was planning that was done concurrently,
and then there are other activities that were revolved to
suggest their fingerprints were on the actual attack. And in
(07:20):
some cases, if I'm not mistaken. In the article we
wrote that with the Hamas rebels as they were going
through the through the border, there was there was actual
audio clips of Russians a Russian language being spoken as
they were going through, to suggest that maybe there are
Russian advisors with the forces as they were attacking.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
Well, all right, we're talking with John Sweet.
Speaker 1 (07:43):
He's a retired Army military intelligence officer. His writings are
all over the place. I find him a lot at
The Hill and the New York Post and some other places.
He's on TV affair bit too. You can follow him
on what used to be called Twitter at j E.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
Sweet twenty twenty two j E. Sweet twenty So.
Speaker 1 (08:01):
I haven't paid very close attention to Syria news for
the last forty eight hours. So what I want to
ask you is based on what you're seeing, since you're
paying closer attention to it than I am. What at
this point do you make of the fact that the
(08:22):
guy who's running the rebels, who used to be a
hardcoregy hottist, who has for a few years been talking
more like a Syrian nationalist than an Islamo fascist.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
Do you believe that rhetoric?
Speaker 1 (08:36):
Do you think that he really wants to have a
country that has something close to freedom intolerance in a
whatever that might look like in the Middle East, not
fully Israel, but something And if I know, I'm asking
a lot of questions all at once. And if he
really does want that, do you think it's even possible
to implement that in a place like Syria.
Speaker 4 (08:59):
Yeah, his background certainly doesn't support what he's espousing uh
on television, as far as he has given credit to
their success based upon the conditions that Israel had set
in Syria for the months prior, in a sense, taken
out key weapons facilities, taken out key i RG leadership,
(09:21):
taken out air defense weapons systems, allowing allowing.
Speaker 3 (09:26):
The rebels to actually to actually gain them.
Speaker 4 (09:29):
Not that Israel's working at cahoots with them, but the
conditions that Israel is setting for their own national security
aided the Syrian rebels in their ability to do what
they have accomplished today. So he has given Israel some credit,
which you're right, his al Qaeda background, his links to ices. Again,
we go back to the kaleidoscope and the shifting of
(09:50):
the sands. One twist, and things changed in the Middle East.
Loyalties in the Middle East are based upon a lot
of things, but one of them is strength, right another
obviously his money and religion. So there are a lot
of complicating factors. Let's understand, he leads HTS, which is
not a group, rather a series of groups of rebels,
and there's other groups there to searing defense forces for instance,
(10:12):
which Principe if I'm not mistaken.
Speaker 3 (10:15):
Or Kurdish.
Speaker 4 (10:16):
So you do have competing factions on the ground that
have different ideas of what they want to do. So
while while they have pushed Aside out, while they are
pushing Russian influence out of the region too, they're gonna
have to contend ultimately with one another here shortly on
who is going to it has since being an interim
president or an interim leader, and then they're gonna have
(10:37):
to have.
Speaker 3 (10:37):
To make those decisions.
Speaker 4 (10:38):
Turkeys is actively involved in supporting this organization, and at
the same time Israel is very concerned because it is
another Islamist extremist organization that.
Speaker 3 (10:49):
Would be up against their borders. So there's a lot
to be worked out.
Speaker 4 (10:53):
But right now he's saying the right things, but saying
the right things, and a slight shift of the kaleidoscope,
but next everything changes.
Speaker 1 (11:02):
So I think I know the answer to this, given
that it's the Middle East and that it's that particular situation.
But do you think that there is a do you
think that there is an outcome or maybe two possible
outcomes that are very likely that are clearly the most
likely outcomes, or is this a situation where there's twenty
possible outcomes and none of them is even a double
(11:25):
digit probability, Like there's there's twenty different outcomes that range
from three percent to nine percent each in probability.
Speaker 3 (11:32):
Yeah, that's a great question.
Speaker 4 (11:34):
So, starting from where we are at this very moment,
the most likely outcome right now that we're seeing there's
Russia influence in the region being being denied, and we're
also seeing that Iran through its IRGC, is being denied
sanctuary in Syria from which they were training because Bala and.
Speaker 3 (11:55):
Moss on.
Speaker 4 (11:57):
Weapons systems, on planning our operations, on launching operations, so
that in a sense was their sanctuary and and and
Syria turn turned the death bear to it. They did
not regulate it or stop it or even the knowledge
that was going on.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
It was just going on, and at the same time.
Speaker 4 (12:17):
I remember asaw it's always been under at least for
the past fourteen years, there's been a civil war going
on in Syria, and he has replied exclusively upon Russian
forces to keep him in office, to beat back the
Syrian rebels. So there has been some discussion at least
within the past forty eight hours that Russia's coordinating and
(12:39):
then discussions with the Syrian rebels to maintain their bases.
But quite frank, I can't believe that the Syrian rebels
would do that, given that for the past fourteen years.
Speaker 3 (12:49):
The Russians have have bombed them, have killed their civilians.
I just can't see that happen.
Speaker 4 (12:55):
I see them giving them time to get out of
the country, but not necessarily.
Speaker 3 (13:01):
To stay.
Speaker 4 (13:02):
So with those two influences out of the region, now
we have a in a sense, a sony Islam, a
type of governance that that will be there that is
going to be possibly influenced by Turkey. So and Turkey
is quite hostile still to Israel. So I think as
we get a little deeper into this, we're starting to
(13:24):
see more overtures against Israel, But for now, they're trying
to keep that overture down at least in the media
until they achieved their objective, which is secure in the country.
For this, for Iran and for the Shia, I think
they've lost that sanctuary. I think Russia's lost that. We'll
lose that sanctuary too. And the second and third impacts
of that are Syria is a gateway for Russia to
(13:48):
get into North Africa, to get into West Africa, to
get into the Sedan and to influence the Middle East region.
When they've lost that gateway, when they've lost that one
water port, and when they've lost that airfield, they've lost
the ability to sustain those operations.
Speaker 3 (14:02):
So I think we're.
Speaker 4 (14:03):
Gonna see changes as money and resources dry up in
those areas, We're gonna start to see change.
Speaker 3 (14:09):
Now, the question is the vacuum. Who fills the vacuum.
Speaker 4 (14:12):
There's always somebody there to fill the vacuum, so we
have to keep eyes on that.
Speaker 1 (14:17):
All right, I think we're gonna have to wrap it
up here. I'm gonna make one comment and then I'm
just gonna have to have you back and have Mark back,
and maybe both of you at the same time, because
there's just so much to talk about, but just one
quick comment that you can respond to and then we'll
we'll wrap it up. So Erdawan of Erwan's a bad guy.
He's an Islamist, he doesn't like Israel. He doesn't even
(14:40):
like America, even though he's a member of NATO.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
He plays his cards pretty well.
Speaker 1 (14:44):
I don't like him, but I can't say he's playing
his cards badly. All that said, I would much rather
have Syria turn into some you know, miniature Turkey, then
turn into some miniature Afghanistan.
Speaker 3 (15:00):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (15:01):
Absolutely, you want us, you know, you want that type
of that type of setting. But again, the the things
that Saide's harbored hamas terrorist. Irwan has been very negative
about Israel, so there's always the possibility he has some
type of influence on that. Again, Turkey is a NATO country, Uh,
(15:23):
so we have some weight with NATO. But but but
Erwine plays many hands. He plays the financial hand with Russia.
He wanted gas to come through at one time, pipeline
to be built, So I mean he's a player. He's
Turkey first obviously, Uh. But he's very adamantly anti Israel.
So it's in and uh and NATO has to pay
attention to that obviously, but I think, like you said,
(15:46):
a Turkish type of governance there versus a Taliban type
of governance.
Speaker 3 (15:50):
Uh, that's a much better outcome for noise.
Speaker 1 (15:54):
John Sweet served in the US Army as military intelligence officer.
Follow him on Twitter at j et t Week twenty
twenty two.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
You can find links to many of his articles that we.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
Kind of talked about indirectly in my conversation today.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
At my blog at.
Speaker 1 (16:08):
Rosskominski dot com, you can find all the stuff we
talked about and more. John, thanks so much for joining me.
It's a great conversation. We'll definitely do it again.
Speaker 3 (16:16):
Hi Rose, thanks for bringing bring me oshell.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
Glad to do it, Glad to do it. Okay,
I am so pleased and privileged to be joined for
the first time on KOA by John Sweet. That's John
with no H, retired Army military intelligence officer who frequently
writes most of the time with a co author, Mark Toth,
who's going to be on some other time, and they
write about all the most important international affairs, geostrategic, military
(00:26):
kind of stuff going on in the world. And as
my listeners know, you know, in college, I majored in
foreign policy. I studied Soviet politics, I studied Chinese politics, I.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Studied nuclear strategy and national security.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
So I'm much more interested in this stuff than your
average talk show host. So I'm really looking forward to
this conversation. So John, thank you so much for making
time for us. And before we start, please tell us
about that logo that's on your shirt.
Speaker 3 (00:54):
Yeah, So for the radio audience, the logo I have
in my.
Speaker 4 (00:57):
Shirt is a picture of a Tory red Tory. It's Japanese,
it's uh it's the symbol of the unit.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
Guy served with an Hunter first Airborne Division.
Speaker 4 (01:06):
The Rocassans and the Rocassians were occupying force in Japan
at the conclusion of the Second World War and they
got their name Rokaissan, which name means umbrellas falling from
the sky. But this is the symbol that the Rocassans
thurber Gate Hunter first Airborne Division fall under.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
It looks either like maybe the front of a Japanese
temple opening or or the or a big version of
the letter pie.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Or something like that. But it's pretty cool. Uh oh,
where that.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
Unit is, wherever they're Rehember they are, you'll see the tory.
They bring it with them. It's it's always somewhere with them.
That's funny. All right.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
So we had a lot to talk about. You know,
we're cover some.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
Some combination of Iran, Russia and Syria. Let me let
me just start with a macro kind of question for you.
Isn't it remarkable? And you know, don't answer yes or
no even though I'm asking yes or no question, give
me a broader answer. But Hamas, okay, Hamas invaded Israel
(02:10):
in October of twenty twenty three, and the result of that,
as of now is that Hamas is almost gone, Hesbal
is almost gone, Asad is gone, Iran is vulnerable, and
the Middle East has changed to Israel's.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
Benefit after Hamas attacked them.
Speaker 4 (02:35):
What do you say about that absolutely. Hey, So Mark
and I have written on this subject a lot. In
one of the oracles, we wrote specifically about the October
seventh attack by Hamas on Israel. Is that it occurrent
obviously October seventh, that was Putin's birthday, that was the
seventieth birthday. In two days after that attack, Russia launched
(02:58):
the largest counterfeits that they had longed to that date, okay,
in the boss the Dumbos region. So the article itself
was Putin's fingerprints are on or or on the Hamas attack,
and we saw that in one way or another as
a diversion away from Ukraine long enough for Putin to
deal to do his counter attack, but at the same
(03:20):
time enabling Hamas to do what they did that day.
And granted we all understand that Hamas was operating under
the authorities of Iran in particular to IRGC, but Russia
had a lot to do with that.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
And if you go back and look at our article,
we talk about the cover that they were.
Speaker 4 (03:40):
Given, as far as financing, the cover that they were given,
as far as weapons that were used, the timing of.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
The operation and more.
Speaker 4 (03:48):
But yes, you're absolutely correct, it's the event that occurred.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
On that day, by you know, either a collusion.
Speaker 4 (03:57):
Or cooperation between Iran, Russia and and all of their
proxies has gotten us to the point where we are
today and once again proving uh that those who deal
or those who mess with with Israel have a have
a common fate and that's generally that that they're defeated.
And also, had Israel, you know, had Israel listen to
(04:21):
the advice or listen to the guidance that was provided
to them by Washington, d C. About what they could
deal with they should do or should not do, we
would not be where.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
We are today. We would actually probably have a stronger
his baller her Moss. But now what we have is
a complete.
Speaker 4 (04:37):
Shift them stands and Mark and I like to call
it the kaleidoscope effect, just a slight twist of the kaleidoscope.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
And everything in the Middle East has changed.
Speaker 4 (04:46):
Moss, has balahiher GC, Syria, Russia, influence in the region,
all that is changed by the events of October seventh.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
I love the cold metaphor. Yeah, that kaleidoscope metaphor is fabulous.
I have the article in front of me about Putin's fingerprints,
all over the Hamas attack, and just give me a
little short, short answers on this part, because I want
to make sure we get to a.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
Lot of a lot of stuff. Uh.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
But you talk about Hamas leaders having traveled to Moscow
like seven months before before the attack twice.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Okay, So.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
How how should we try to distinguish whether your theory
that Russia had some influence on Hamas is really interesting
and insightful or the product of a tinfoil hat, because
I've never heard anybody say that, And You're not.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
A tinfoil hat guy, I'm not saying that about you.
But like, let's say.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
Somebody had no idea who you were, and they read
this thing and they say Russia had something to do
with Hamas attacking that. I've never heard anyone else say it,
So give put a little more meat on those bones.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
So let's uh, let's let's let's step back a little bit.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
It's I RGC, right, I ran, and I ran working
with Russia. Okay, not necessarily Russia directly with Hamas, but
eventually Hamas, I believe, uh, through the through the multiple
trips of Hamas senior leadership to Moscow as far as Uh,
and we document the dates in which those occur, what
could have happened.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
Of course, we don't know for sure because it hasn't
been uh divulged uh or.
Speaker 4 (06:19):
Investigated I guess by other sources, government sources.
Speaker 3 (06:23):
I mean, it's probably still classified. But at some real
at some.
Speaker 4 (06:25):
Level, we have to believe that they were involved in
the planning process and that they were back reefing there
there they're Russian leaders and that the leaders of their
receiver were where to look.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
At that time, Russia was.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
Suffering pretty bad in the Ukraine. Ukraine's counterfeits have been
very effective. With the introduction of PI Mars. They were
pushing Russian forces out. Russian needed something, a diversion the
ship eyes away from from Ukraine. I think that all
along that Iran had been planning something to this effect,
(07:00):
but Russian enabled it. I'm not saying Russian planned it,
but Russia certainly enabled the actions that occurred. And as
you see, there's weapons that were there, there was one
of that was transferred, there was planning that was done concurrently,
and then there are other activities that were revolved to
suggest their fingerprints were on the actual attack. And in
(07:20):
some cases, if I'm not mistaken. In the article we
wrote that with the Hamas rebels as they were going
through the through the border, there was there was actual
audio clips of Russians a Russian language being spoken as
they were going through, to suggest that maybe there are
Russian advisors with the forces as they were attacking.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
Well, all right, we're talking with John Sweet.
Speaker 1 (07:43):
He's a retired Army military intelligence officer. His writings are
all over the place. I find him a lot at
The Hill and the New York Post and some other places.
He's on TV affair bit too. You can follow him
on what used to be called Twitter at j E.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
Sweet twenty twenty two j E. Sweet twenty So.
Speaker 1 (08:01):
I haven't paid very close attention to Syria news for
the last forty eight hours. So what I want to
ask you is based on what you're seeing, since you're
paying closer attention to it than I am. What at
this point do you make of the fact that the
(08:22):
guy who's running the rebels, who used to be a
hardcoregy hottist, who has for a few years been talking
more like a Syrian nationalist than an Islamo fascist.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
Do you believe that rhetoric?
Speaker 1 (08:36):
Do you think that he really wants to have a
country that has something close to freedom intolerance in a
whatever that might look like in the Middle East, not
fully Israel, but something And if I know, I'm asking
a lot of questions all at once. And if he
really does want that, do you think it's even possible
to implement that in a place like Syria.
Speaker 4 (08:59):
Yeah, his background certainly doesn't support what he's espousing uh
on television, as far as he has given credit to
their success based upon the conditions that Israel had set
in Syria for the months prior, in a sense, taken
out key weapons facilities, taken out key i RG leadership,
(09:21):
taken out air defense weapons systems, allowing allowing.
Speaker 3 (09:26):
The rebels to actually to actually gain them.
Speaker 4 (09:29):
Not that Israel's working at cahoots with them, but the
conditions that Israel is setting for their own national security
aided the Syrian rebels in their ability to do what
they have accomplished today. So he has given Israel some credit,
which you're right, his al Qaeda background, his links to ices. Again,
we go back to the kaleidoscope and the shifting of
(09:50):
the sands. One twist, and things changed in the Middle East.
Loyalties in the Middle East are based upon a lot
of things, but one of them is strength, right another
obviously his money and religion. So there are a lot
of complicating factors. Let's understand, he leads HTS, which is
not a group, rather a series of groups of rebels,
and there's other groups there to searing defense forces for instance,
(10:12):
which Principe if I'm not mistaken.
Speaker 3 (10:15):
Or Kurdish.
Speaker 4 (10:16):
So you do have competing factions on the ground that
have different ideas of what they want to do. So
while while they have pushed Aside out, while they are
pushing Russian influence out of the region too, they're gonna
have to contend ultimately with one another here shortly on
who is going to it has since being an interim
president or an interim leader, and then they're gonna have
(10:37):
to have.
Speaker 3 (10:37):
To make those decisions.
Speaker 4 (10:38):
Turkeys is actively involved in supporting this organization, and at
the same time Israel is very concerned because it is
another Islamist extremist organization that.
Speaker 3 (10:49):
Would be up against their borders. So there's a lot
to be worked out.
Speaker 4 (10:53):
But right now he's saying the right things, but saying
the right things, and a slight shift of the kaleidoscope,
but next everything changes.
Speaker 1 (11:02):
So I think I know the answer to this, given
that it's the Middle East and that it's that particular situation.
But do you think that there is a do you
think that there is an outcome or maybe two possible
outcomes that are very likely that are clearly the most
likely outcomes, or is this a situation where there's twenty
possible outcomes and none of them is even a double
(11:25):
digit probability, Like there's there's twenty different outcomes that range
from three percent to nine percent each in probability.
Speaker 3 (11:32):
Yeah, that's a great question.
Speaker 4 (11:34):
So, starting from where we are at this very moment,
the most likely outcome right now that we're seeing there's
Russia influence in the region being being denied, and we're
also seeing that Iran through its IRGC, is being denied
sanctuary in Syria from which they were training because Bala and.
Speaker 3 (11:55):
Moss on.
Speaker 4 (11:57):
Weapons systems, on planning our operations, on launching operations, so
that in a sense was their sanctuary and and and
Syria turn turned the death bear to it. They did
not regulate it or stop it or even the knowledge
that was going on.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
It was just going on, and at the same time.
Speaker 4 (12:17):
I remember asaw it's always been under at least for
the past fourteen years, there's been a civil war going
on in Syria, and he has replied exclusively upon Russian
forces to keep him in office, to beat back the
Syrian rebels. So there has been some discussion at least
within the past forty eight hours that Russia's coordinating and
(12:39):
then discussions with the Syrian rebels to maintain their bases.
But quite frank, I can't believe that the Syrian rebels
would do that, given that for the past fourteen years.
Speaker 3 (12:49):
The Russians have have bombed them, have killed their civilians.
I just can't see that happen.
Speaker 4 (12:55):
I see them giving them time to get out of
the country, but not necessarily.
Speaker 3 (13:01):
To stay.
Speaker 4 (13:02):
So with those two influences out of the region, now
we have a in a sense, a sony Islam, a
type of governance that that will be there that is
going to be possibly influenced by Turkey. So and Turkey
is quite hostile still to Israel. So I think as
we get a little deeper into this, we're starting to
(13:24):
see more overtures against Israel, But for now, they're trying
to keep that overture down at least in the media
until they achieved their objective, which is secure in the country.
For this, for Iran and for the Shia, I think
they've lost that sanctuary. I think Russia's lost that. We'll
lose that sanctuary too. And the second and third impacts
of that are Syria is a gateway for Russia to
(13:48):
get into North Africa, to get into West Africa, to
get into the Sedan and to influence the Middle East region.
When they've lost that gateway, when they've lost that one
water port, and when they've lost that airfield, they've lost
the ability to sustain those operations.
Speaker 3 (14:02):
So I think we're.
Speaker 4 (14:03):
Gonna see changes as money and resources dry up in
those areas, We're gonna start to see change.
Speaker 3 (14:09):
Now, the question is the vacuum. Who fills the vacuum.
Speaker 4 (14:12):
There's always somebody there to fill the vacuum, so we
have to keep eyes on that.
Speaker 1 (14:17):
All right, I think we're gonna have to wrap it
up here. I'm gonna make one comment and then I'm
just gonna have to have you back and have Mark back,
and maybe both of you at the same time, because
there's just so much to talk about, but just one
quick comment that you can respond to and then we'll
we'll wrap it up. So Erdawan of Erwan's a bad guy.
He's an Islamist, he doesn't like Israel. He doesn't even
(14:40):
like America, even though he's a member of NATO.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
He plays his cards pretty well.
Speaker 1 (14:44):
I don't like him, but I can't say he's playing
his cards badly. All that said, I would much rather
have Syria turn into some you know, miniature Turkey, then
turn into some miniature Afghanistan.
Speaker 3 (15:00):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (15:01):
Absolutely, you want us, you know, you want that type
of that type of setting. But again, the the things
that Saide's harbored hamas terrorist. Irwan has been very negative
about Israel, so there's always the possibility he has some
type of influence on that. Again, Turkey is a NATO country, Uh,
(15:23):
so we have some weight with NATO. But but but
Erwine plays many hands. He plays the financial hand with Russia.
He wanted gas to come through at one time, pipeline
to be built, So I mean he's a player. He's
Turkey first obviously, Uh. But he's very adamantly anti Israel.
So it's in and uh and NATO has to pay
attention to that obviously, but I think, like you said,
(15:46):
a Turkish type of governance there versus a Taliban type
of governance.
Speaker 3 (15:50):
Uh, that's a much better outcome for noise.
Speaker 1 (15:54):
John Sweet served in the US Army as military intelligence officer.
Follow him on Twitter at j et t Week twenty
twenty two.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
You can find links to many of his articles that we.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
Kind of talked about indirectly in my conversation today.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
At my blog at.
Speaker 1 (16:08):
Rosskominski dot com, you can find all the stuff we
talked about and more. John, thanks so much for joining me.
It's a great conversation. We'll definitely do it again.
Speaker 3 (16:16):
Hi Rose, thanks for bringing bring me oshell.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
Glad to do it, Glad to do it. Okay,
The Ross Kaminsky Show News
Popular Podcasts
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show. Clay Travis and Buck Sexton tackle the biggest stories in news, politics and current events with intelligence and humor. From the border crisis, to the madness of cancel culture and far-left missteps, Clay and Buck guide listeners through the latest headlines and hot topics with fun and entertaining conversations and opinions.