Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
So you know that I'm a finance and econ nerd.
You know that I studied economics in college along with
foreign policy. You know that my previous career before radio
was in financial markets, and you know generally that I'm
a nerd. I mean, Dragon played Yeah, and Dragon played
the song before the weird Al song before White Nerdy,
(00:21):
And we don't know which one of those I'm more of,
but I'm a lot of both and.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
And So, as a guy who's fascinating with politics, the
federal budget, my children's futures, I care a lot about
the discussions going on right now in Washington, d C.
About spending and taxation and what all of that is
going to mean for the federal budget, for the deficit,
(00:52):
for the debt, and, as I say, for my children's futures,
because every dollar that we're borrowing right now is going
to be paid back by future generations, and it's either
going to be massively increased taxes, damaging their quality of life,
or monetizing the debt and printing an immense amount of
(01:12):
money and essentially causing inflation. And I won't get into
all the economics of that, but that will also make
them poorer. So all this stuff we're doing today is
making my children and your children and their children poorer,
and I'm pissed about it. So I want to know.
I want to understand what's happening. And I will say,
the economics, once you know the plan, maybe not that
(01:34):
difficult to understand, but understanding the politics and the plan,
not only is it opaqued, it's intentionally opaque.
Speaker 2 (01:42):
They don't want you to know what they're doing.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
And there are people who spend their day jobs figuring
out what they're doing and what it's going to mean
for us and what's the most likely thing. And one
of those guys is Mike Murphy who's been on the
show before. He's senior VP and chief of staff for
the Committee for a Response a Responsible Federal Budget. It's
CRFB dot org. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. All Right,
(02:10):
that was much too long an intro, but Mike, thanks
so much for joining us again on KOA Ross.
Speaker 3 (02:17):
Great to be with you again. Let's nerd out. I'm
ready to nerd out on the budget week. Okay, let's
let's go for it.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
Okay, so let's nerd out what are the top line
things and we'll get into more in depth that you
see as being the probable push forward by Congressional Republicans
when it comes to the size of the budget and
then separately when it comes to taxation.
Speaker 3 (02:44):
So big picture, while I stepping back ross first of
what the context of the Republicans are operating in when
it comes to the budget. The Congressional Budget Office in
the last couple of weeks, right before the president's inauguration,
came out with updated projections on the budget, and what
they show is over the next ten years, we are
going to accumulate twenty two at least twenty two trillion
(03:07):
dollars an additional debt over the next ten years based
on current law. That's just based on what's on the
books right now. We are facing interest costs on the
federal debt right now that are the fastest growing line
o th in the budget. We spent more on interest
on that national debt in the last fiscal year than
we spent annually on defense. So that's the context. Okay,
(03:30):
how big the problem of our deficits and debt is
that's facing the Congress and the administration right now over
the next ten years as it pertains to what they're
moving forward on their agenda, and your sort of top
line question. What's happening right now is Republicans in Congress
are trying to advance a budget plan that would try
to push forward on multiple elements of their agenda. This
(03:53):
includes investments in border security, potentially more investments in defense,
energy related policy, and also extending tax cuts that are
scheduled to expire at the end of this year that
we're enacted during the first Trump administration back in twenty seventeen.
And what we're worried about as a CUSCAL Responsibility group
(04:13):
is that the House of Representatives look forward a budget
plan to start the process that they're going to use
to achieve this, and that budget plan right now could
lead to what we estimate is about two point eight
trillion dollars of additional debt that's the result of the
cost of extending these tax cuts. But that are only
(04:35):
including in this budget plan about two trillion savings. What
about four point eight trillion potential additional costs. So that's
where this is headed ross and that's one of the
things that we're key in and on and are potentially
concerned about.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Okay, so all right, let's try to frame this up
a little bit.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
I'm very concerned about the deficit and debt all I'm
so very concerned about overtaxation.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
The Star of the Beast mindset.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
Has never worked, but it's still probably the best choice.
And I'm very much in and I'm not sure that
you said exactly where you are on maintaining the Trump
tax cuts from twenty seventeen. I'm very much in favor
of keeping them and then trying to force down spending
(05:30):
to get down the deficit.
Speaker 2 (05:33):
And maybe when the deficit gets.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Down enough and the federal government is borrowing much much less,
they will be less of an overhanging, less of a
drag on the private sector. Maybe the private sector economy
will grow faster and we can partly grow our way
out of this. But I'll tell you, Mike, this is
as much a principal thing as an economic thing. And
(05:55):
let me finish the sentence, and then you can ramble
like I've been rambling. Taxation in excess of what's necessary
to perform the federal government's constitutionally authorized functions is theft.
So most of our taxation now is theft, because most
of what the federal government does is illegal or unconstitutional
(06:19):
and we need to restrain it. And I think the
star of the Beast thing is the only way, even
though it hasn't worked.
Speaker 3 (06:30):
So listen, we I myself and like everybody like tax
cuts well, and the tax cuts that were enacted in
twenty seventeen had many positive benefits, positive benefits for the
economy as well. We take this ross too, is that
when you talk about principles we have. We've took a
very principal approach on these kind of things too, and
our principle is we need to pay for your policy priorities,
(06:55):
whether that's the tax cuts or spending increases. Right the
the issue that you're pointing out about the start of
the Beast principle, so to speak, you're kind of correct
that the historically it doesn't seem to have worked. And
actually the way that this is actually going right now
when it comes to the plan for this budget is
(07:15):
kind of illustrating that point, because what's going on right
now is they've been wrestling with how to approach this
for several weeks and they know most a lot of
the fistical conservatives realize that there is a cost associated
with expending those tax cuts, and when you're talking about
a twenty two trillion dollar increase in the debt already
for the next ten years. You've got to be careful
of what that's going to do. So they realize that,
(07:37):
so they've been trying to bofset it. So in other words, Okay,
if we're going to have those tax cuts, let's have
the spending cuts too. To your point, they've only been
they've been only able to come up with the two
trillion of four point six because it's very hard. The
last time they did tax cuts back in twenty seventeen,
they passed them in December at twenty seventeen. Two months later,
they passed a big spending increase passage. Right, history now
(08:01):
has proven to be the case.
Speaker 1 (08:02):
I do think. I storry to interrupt you, Mike, I
do think. So let me just say back in Trump's
first term, I said repeatedly on the show that Trump's
by far largest failure on domestic policy was his lack
of concern about the size of the federal budget and
deficit and debt. He's not acting that way this time,
(08:25):
and I don't know it's because whether he's changed his
view or whether he's surrounded himself with people who have
very different goals. But these people sure do seem like
they are focusing on on and at least trying to
cut spending.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
Don't you agree, Well, there's no.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
Doubt that through efforts such as the Department Grow Up
an Efficiency, they are making it a stated goal and
priority to find savings, fine efficiencies, find ways. There's no
doubt about that. Ross and we obviously a FIS corresponsibility group,
we welcome that at a principle level without a doubt.
What we're going to hone in in on is when
(09:02):
it comes to some of those efforts there, for example,
is one of the under I think appreciated facts is
and in a lot of cases they are identifying and
saying that they're claiming savings here and different contracts that
they might cancel, headcount, productions, things like that that could
ultimate result in savings. What people don't realize those in
a lot of cases, all those things have kind of
been already appropriated to the agencies by Huntress. And what's
(09:25):
what's likely going to have to happen is Congress is
still going to have to pass laws to rescind a
lot of that funding to actually achieve those savings.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
And that's that's important too.
Speaker 3 (09:35):
We've got to stay on top of that to see
how that actually and.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
It's and it's unclear if they would actually do it.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
That Congress is not famous for doing that, and there's
a lot of there's a lot of fiefdoms to protect,
all right, So all right, so let's keep going here.
I want to I want to try to. I drifted
a lot into economics and principle there. I want to
focus more with you on politics because I can probably
handle a lot of the economics and principles without you.
(10:01):
But you're really you have a much better understanding of
what's going on on Capitol Hill right now. So do
you think Republicans will be able to pass anything, whether
it's a thing you like or not, without Democratic votes
in the next month or two As far as a
(10:22):
reconciliation bill related to spending or taxation, I think.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
That they have a pretty good chance. Again, that's regards
to whether I like it or not. I think they
have a pretty good chance. I think there's a lot
of momentum to do. So the first vote on this
or US is going to be really important. Is next week.
Not to get to technical technical for your listeners, But
there there's a multi step process they have to do
to get to this reconciliation bill, and first they have
(10:50):
to pass a budget resolution to do it. That's gonna
be the first vote next week. It looks like that's
probably going to pass in the House. But there's going
to be competing directions when it comes to passing this
reconciliation bill that will be very tough to reconcile. On
the one hand, you have, and we are supportive of
this group of folks. There are physcal conservatives that really
(11:10):
think you have to offset and ideally pay for more
than the costs of what they're doing on this agenda.
But on the other side, when you start identifying what
the specific policies are going to have to be to
find those offsets. For example, lots of people are keen
in on healthcare reforms, particularly Medicaid reform. There is a
lot of pushback from others within the party that are
(11:32):
worried about the impacts of potential cuts, and those competing
competing factions when you have a very tight margin, very
very tight margin, could put this at risk. We think
that the smarter approach would be to realize the ambitions
are big. Here is a big potential cost. You might
have to scale back, Okay, some of your ambitions when
(11:56):
it comes to the tax side to match up with
what you can actually achieve on the offset side. That
would be a more a smarter approach that maybe you
can rally people around. But right now I think the
MOMENTU is heading towards the least getting a budget resolution passed.
Next week, we'll see if they can get everybody together
on the competing factions on the bigger recociliation bill in
(12:18):
a few months.
Speaker 1 (12:19):
We're talking with Mike Murphy from the Committee for a
Responsible Federal Budget CRFB dot org. So not that it
matters because you're the expert and I'm really not, but
I agree with you on all of that, And I
would add a thing, which not not challenging anything you said,
I would add a thing. I think that most Republicans
(12:41):
right now think, whether we're talking about Chip Roy on
the right or Mike Lawler on the relative left of
the Republican Party, I think these people know that if
they can't pass something and they end up in a
situation where Mike Johnson has to look for demic votes
to pass something, they are going to be completely screwed politically,
(13:04):
and nobody in the Republican side probably is going to
get anything they want, and I think they realize that
that is just a no go.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
And I think there is much more pressure on.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
The fiscal far right versus fiscal not left but moderate.
Speaker 2 (13:23):
To pass something without Democrats.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
I think there is a lot of I think there's
a lot of pressure on that. I think you're right
about that, Ross. I think that history would suggest that
if you this isn't this isn't by the way a
statement were again see the party, history would suggest that
it's often when you start to have to do things
by partisan by partisan ends up kind of bidding up
the costs, right, yep of things right. So this potentially
(13:49):
could happen if we did that. It's also possible that
you get to places where again this the deadline for
the tax stats is actually not until the end of
the calendar year. Washington really frankly never operates outside of
a real action forcing deadline. You can see something where
this attacks that are dragged at the end of the year,
(14:10):
you start talking about that you need to temporary extend
different pieces of this to kind of keep the conversation going.
So I think there's a lot lots of plays here
still remain as this plays out.
Speaker 1 (14:23):
Okay, so last quick question for you, Mike, what's the
probability of a so called government shutdown?
Speaker 3 (14:35):
You know it's so March fourteenth is when the current
appropriations for the government come do I personally believe right
now you never know. I don't think we're going to
see a shutdown. I think there is there seems to
be a lot of issues with the both parties coming
together right now on agreement to have a chip purporation
(14:56):
rest of the year. What ends up normally happening in
that situation is to default to a continuing resolution to
kind of compute the government funded. To avoid a shutdown.
I think it's probably an everyone's interest to avoid to shutdown.
Shutdowns are very dumb from a policy taking perspective, that
you end up costing money in most cases, and so
I think I think ultimately you won't see a shutdown,
(15:18):
but you never know.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
You never know.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
Russ Mike Murphy, Senior VP and chief of staff or
the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget CRFB dot org.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
Great to have you back on the show, Mike. Thanks
for doing this.
Speaker 3 (15:29):
Thanks for having me Ross all right, we'll talk again.