April 25, 2025 • 6 mins
Jonathan Hoenig of CapitalistPig.com says it's been a rocky month on Wall Street, and whispers of a recession are getting louder
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, let's jump over to the Legacy Retirement Group
(00:02):
dot Com phone Line, Special Day, Special Time, Ourcapitalist Pig
dot Com. Jonavan Hoenig live from New York. Jonathan, good morning.
We had another rally on Wall Street, third straight day yesterday.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
It's been a winning week so far. Good morning, Good morning, Mike.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
It's great to be with you. And you know it's
been a special month too. You know, this has been
the most volatile April since the Great Depression. I mean
the last three days, and that back is up about
eight percent. Now we're going to be down a little
bit this morning. The future is appointed lower. But of
course it's been all about tariffs and tariff exemptions. For example,
(00:37):
earlier this week, CNBC reported that Trump was considering some
exemptions for the automotive tariffs, where we saw a lot
of the car makers in effect arrived on that. But
net Mike, this is really having a major impact on
the economy, writ large Intel. Of course, the big chip maker.
Their CFO was out yesterday saying that he thought tariffs
(00:57):
would increase the chance for an economics flow down. He
sees a recession getting even likely, or we're hearing a
lot of that on Wall Street now as well. Intel
will open down about five percent this morning.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Well, and Intel obviously has a great impact in the
central Ohio area with that chip plant here, and they
announced earlier this week that they're going to lay off
twenty percent of their workforce, which that leaves a lot
of question marks for the Licking County chip plant here
a different discussion, but yeah, Intel is something you definitely
want to watch. So, you know, we talked about tariffs,
obviously the in the auto industry, but you know, President
(01:31):
Trump has flowed the idea of kind of pausing or
rolling back some of those tariffs.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
There are at least offering an exemption for them.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Yeah, and I think that's one of the reasons why
there is so much uncertainty, Mike, you know, I mean
we've been told even in the last couple of weeks that,
for example, the Federal Reserve chairman would like to be fired. Well, no,
he's not going to be fired. There'd be no exemptions
on tariffs. Well, yes, there will be an exemption on tariff.
So you know, just that level of a regulatory uncertainty
is incredibly high, and a lot of it this week
(01:58):
had to do with the Federal Reserve chairman as well.
I mean, you know, just literally twenty four hours after
truthing out, you know, a post is subjecting that your
own power will be fired. Trump said they had no
intention of firing the Federal Reserve chair So just so
much uncertainty when it comes not to the economic situation really,
but the tariff situation. The President has very aspirational goals,
(02:20):
but you're hearing that word recession more and more, not
just from economists, but from CEOs as well.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Jonathan Hoenig, Capitalist Pig dot Com Special Day, Special Time,
and you know, you talked about the automotive industry and
a lot of a lot of carmakers and dealers have
a lot of inventory. A lot of cars are sitting
on the lots right now and people are running to
snap those up before the tariffs hit. Same with other
big ticket items appliances you know that are sitting in
(02:48):
warehouses that have not yet been affected by tariffs. We
saw a surge and people buy last month.
Speaker 3 (02:53):
Yeah, I mean, that's the perverse kind of the perverse
nature of these tariffs, Mike, is that it's causing people
to go out and buy things before they take they
take effect. Dal Jones was estimating about a one point
six increase in big ticket purchases for the month where
they served by nine point two percent, things like, as
you said, autos and appliances because people see, well the
(03:15):
president has a PAUSEI teriffs for six months or three months.
I'm gonna go out and buy that car now or
buy that washing machine now before the terriffs hit. So
you know, a lot of people making major moves. And
that's something we've always tried to stress, Mike. You know,
the president and his team seems to work on a
day to day basis.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
Here.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
You know, the deal is on, the deal is off.
But if you're a small business owner, I mean, you're
not looking twenty four hours out, you're looking six months out,
six years out, you know, ten years that you're really
trying to look long term. And I think that's what
makes investing in this environment such a difficult area in
which to invest. In fact, the President's returns are not
that good when it comes to the polls either. He's
(03:54):
getting the lowest polling numbers thirty seven percent of respondents
now approve of his handling of the economy. That's lower
than any time during his first term. So that uncertainty
in Wall Street is showing up on Main Street, and
a lot of Americans are saying to the president, look,
you got to just improve what you're doing with the
markets and the economy.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Rit large, Jonathan, you know, I love to talk about food,
and I saw the story earlier. This week, McDonald's has
introduced his first new permanent addition to the menu in
four years.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
What's going to be on the new McDonald's menu.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Well, Ronald might be rolling over in his grave, but
it's not going to be a hamburger. It's going to
be chicken. You know, McDonald's sells more chicken now than
they do beef mic and they are having.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
A lot of competition.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
And the next wonderful thing about America is that we're
not we are dotted with McDonald's, but you've got these
upstarts like raising canes, wing Stop, all these other new alternatives.
Even Taco Bell now sells crispy chicken tenders and nuggets.
So McDonald's is, you know, throwing their hat even more
into the chicken game. They had a product called the
(04:54):
mccrispy strip. These are delicious and told Fried they're bringing
it back for good now. And as you said, Mike,
this is the first permanent new menu edition in four years.
And when you think about how McDonald's has changed over
the years, I mean, I remember when in the late
nineties salads were a major innovation in McDonald's. You know,
you really have to stay current with the trends to
(05:17):
stay relevant and stay on top. So more chicken at McDonald's.
And what's even better for Americans now is more choice
at lower prices. And of course that's what competition in
the free market does.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
You used to be able to go to McDonald's, Jonathan
and not have to look at the menu because you
knew what was going to be on it.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
You just ordered your usual.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Now the menu changes so often you actually have to
go through the drive through and look at the menu
because there's different options there.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
And that keeps us engaged. And I think always, Mike
of Amazon as being the best example. I mean, Amazon
started as the world's biggest bookstore, but it's Shane, It's
just elevated, it improved, and that's how businesses stay on top.
McDonald's is just one another example.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
All right, we'll stick in the food category.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Chipotle seeing a little bit of a slow down, people
not going out and getting burritos and as often as.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
They used to.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
Yeah, I mean, and because people are cutting back. This
is what the ceo he said. There was a Chipotle
had their earnings call this week. They are raising the
alarm about what they're describing as a spending slow down.
In fact, standing money was quote the overwhelming reason consumers
were reducing the frequency of restaurant visits. That's what the
CEO said. And you know, Mike, I think even the
(06:23):
rate of inflation, as we've talked about, is down. Inflation
is still holding along north of two percent, north of
where the Fed wants it, and all of us are
continuing to see. Maybe eggs have come down a bit
in price, but less expensive, and more and more Americans
having to dip into those four to one K funds
or take on even more credit card debts. So Americans
are hurting. Optimistic, never bet against the country, but certainly
(06:44):
a lot of bills coming due in a very very
rocky muff for stocks,
All right, let's jump over to the Legacy Retirement Group
(00:02):
dot Com phone Line, Special Day, Special Time, Ourcapitalist Pig
dot Com. Jonavan Hoenig live from New York. Jonathan, good morning.
We had another rally on Wall Street, third straight day yesterday.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
It's been a winning week so far. Good morning, Good morning, Mike.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
It's great to be with you. And you know it's
been a special month too. You know, this has been
the most volatile April since the Great Depression. I mean
the last three days, and that back is up about
eight percent. Now we're going to be down a little
bit this morning. The future is appointed lower. But of
course it's been all about tariffs and tariff exemptions. For example,
(00:37):
earlier this week, CNBC reported that Trump was considering some
exemptions for the automotive tariffs, where we saw a lot
of the car makers in effect arrived on that. But
net Mike, this is really having a major impact on
the economy, writ large Intel. Of course, the big chip maker.
Their CFO was out yesterday saying that he thought tariffs
(00:57):
would increase the chance for an economics flow down. He
sees a recession getting even likely, or we're hearing a
lot of that on Wall Street now as well. Intel
will open down about five percent this morning.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Well, and Intel obviously has a great impact in the
central Ohio area with that chip plant here, and they
announced earlier this week that they're going to lay off
twenty percent of their workforce, which that leaves a lot
of question marks for the Licking County chip plant here
a different discussion, but yeah, Intel is something you definitely
want to watch. So, you know, we talked about tariffs,
obviously the in the auto industry, but you know, President
(01:31):
Trump has flowed the idea of kind of pausing or
rolling back some of those tariffs.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
There are at least offering an exemption for them.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Yeah, and I think that's one of the reasons why
there is so much uncertainty, Mike, you know, I mean
we've been told even in the last couple of weeks that,
for example, the Federal Reserve chairman would like to be fired. Well, no,
he's not going to be fired. There'd be no exemptions
on tariffs. Well, yes, there will be an exemption on tariff.
So you know, just that level of a regulatory uncertainty
is incredibly high, and a lot of it this week
(01:58):
had to do with the Federal Reserve chairman as well.
I mean, you know, just literally twenty four hours after
truthing out, you know, a post is subjecting that your
own power will be fired. Trump said they had no
intention of firing the Federal Reserve chair So just so
much uncertainty when it comes not to the economic situation really,
but the tariff situation. The President has very aspirational goals,
(02:20):
but you're hearing that word recession more and more, not
just from economists, but from CEOs as well.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Jonathan Hoenig, Capitalist Pig dot Com Special Day, Special Time,
and you know, you talked about the automotive industry and
a lot of a lot of carmakers and dealers have
a lot of inventory. A lot of cars are sitting
on the lots right now and people are running to
snap those up before the tariffs hit. Same with other
big ticket items appliances you know that are sitting in
(02:48):
warehouses that have not yet been affected by tariffs. We
saw a surge and people buy last month.
Speaker 3 (02:53):
Yeah, I mean, that's the perverse kind of the perverse
nature of these tariffs, Mike, is that it's causing people
to go out and buy things before they take they
take effect. Dal Jones was estimating about a one point
six increase in big ticket purchases for the month where
they served by nine point two percent, things like, as
you said, autos and appliances because people see, well the
(03:15):
president has a PAUSEI teriffs for six months or three months.
I'm gonna go out and buy that car now or
buy that washing machine now before the terriffs hit. So
you know, a lot of people making major moves. And
that's something we've always tried to stress, Mike. You know,
the president and his team seems to work on a
day to day basis.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
Here.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
You know, the deal is on, the deal is off.
But if you're a small business owner, I mean, you're
not looking twenty four hours out, you're looking six months out,
six years out, you know, ten years that you're really
trying to look long term. And I think that's what
makes investing in this environment such a difficult area in
which to invest. In fact, the President's returns are not
that good when it comes to the polls either. He's
(03:54):
getting the lowest polling numbers thirty seven percent of respondents
now approve of his handling of the economy. That's lower
than any time during his first term. So that uncertainty
in Wall Street is showing up on Main Street, and
a lot of Americans are saying to the president, look,
you got to just improve what you're doing with the
markets and the economy.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Rit large, Jonathan, you know, I love to talk about food,
and I saw the story earlier. This week, McDonald's has
introduced his first new permanent addition to the menu in
four years.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
What's going to be on the new McDonald's menu.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Well, Ronald might be rolling over in his grave, but
it's not going to be a hamburger. It's going to
be chicken. You know, McDonald's sells more chicken now than
they do beef mic and they are having.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
A lot of competition.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
And the next wonderful thing about America is that we're
not we are dotted with McDonald's, but you've got these
upstarts like raising canes, wing Stop, all these other new alternatives.
Even Taco Bell now sells crispy chicken tenders and nuggets.
So McDonald's is, you know, throwing their hat even more
into the chicken game. They had a product called the
(04:54):
mccrispy strip. These are delicious and told Fried they're bringing
it back for good now. And as you said, Mike,
this is the first permanent new menu edition in four years.
And when you think about how McDonald's has changed over
the years, I mean, I remember when in the late
nineties salads were a major innovation in McDonald's. You know,
you really have to stay current with the trends to
(05:17):
stay relevant and stay on top. So more chicken at McDonald's.
And what's even better for Americans now is more choice
at lower prices. And of course that's what competition in
the free market does.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
You used to be able to go to McDonald's, Jonathan
and not have to look at the menu because you
knew what was going to be on it.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
You just ordered your usual.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Now the menu changes so often you actually have to
go through the drive through and look at the menu
because there's different options there.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
And that keeps us engaged. And I think always, Mike
of Amazon as being the best example. I mean, Amazon
started as the world's biggest bookstore, but it's Shane, It's
just elevated, it improved, and that's how businesses stay on top.
McDonald's is just one another example.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
All right, we'll stick in the food category.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Chipotle seeing a little bit of a slow down, people
not going out and getting burritos and as often as.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
They used to.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
Yeah, I mean, and because people are cutting back. This
is what the ceo he said. There was a Chipotle
had their earnings call this week. They are raising the
alarm about what they're describing as a spending slow down.
In fact, standing money was quote the overwhelming reason consumers
were reducing the frequency of restaurant visits. That's what the
CEO said. And you know, Mike, I think even the
(06:23):
rate of inflation, as we've talked about, is down. Inflation
is still holding along north of two percent, north of
where the Fed wants it, and all of us are
continuing to see. Maybe eggs have come down a bit
in price, but less expensive, and more and more Americans
having to dip into those four to one K funds
or take on even more credit card debts. So Americans
are hurting. Optimistic, never bet against the country, but certainly
(06:44):
a lot of bills coming due in a very very
rocky muff for stocks,
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