July 31, 2025 • 8 mins
Jonathan Hoenig of CapitalistPig.com has the latest national business including American Eagle stock following the "controversial" Jeans ad
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, we'll switch gears and say good morning to
(00:02):
our capitalist pig. It is Jonathan Hoenig on the Legacy
Retirement Group dot com phone line. Of course, you can
find jonathancapitalist pig dot com. And we had the FED yesterday, Jonathan.
They held rate steady. The Dow and s ANDP and
NASDAK were all sort of mixed because of that.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Good morning.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
Yeah, we had great degree with Mike. Yeah, we're going
to be up pretty sharp with this morning. The NASDAK
up three hundred points on some great technology earnings. But yes,
as you said yesterday, it was all about the feder
Reserve and although the President had wanted the FED to
cut by some three percentage points, this time no change,
basically saying no decisions have been made on September. They're
(00:41):
going to wait and basically be data dependent, keeping an
eye on all those indicators. They've made no decisions, and
we actually get some good indicators about the economy. Ritt
large yesterday, Mike, not gamebusters, but the US economy grew
at about a three percent rate in the second quarter.
That was stronger than expected. Analystics I did only somewhere
on the age about two point three percent. So economy
(01:05):
humming along. It's just greats at least for now, saying
right where they are in the market not far from
its all time high.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
And you know, you're starting to see and the economy grow,
as you pointed out, three percent in the second quarter.
And this is as the tariffs were hitting in April
and May. And you're starting to see a lot of
experts sort of flip the script and go one to
eighty that were critical of Trump and the terriffs, and
they're kind of going these you know, economic experts saying, actually,
(01:34):
this is kind of working.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
It's not really as bad as we thought it was
going to be.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
Well, we're seeing a lot of companies, for example, might
acknowledge that tariff hit but even still managed to beat
earnings when Ford is probably the best example for reporting
earnings yesterday they beat for the second quarter and they
upped their full year guidance, but they also acknowledged that
they paid about eight hundred million dollars in care costs
(01:58):
in the second quarter alone. So I think so much
of what we've seen in terms of the markets is
just the knowledge. You know, we've said for months now
that the market hates uncertainty. Just the knowledge of some
of these tariffs of what exactly they're going to be
giving investors a little more confidence in terms of putting
money to work. But you know, it's all about earnings.
And when you have companies like Wingstop record earnings. That
(02:19):
stock is up about twenty six percent in the pre market.
Or even Microsoft, that company beat on their top and
bottom line on all their cloud strength. That company is
up about eight percent in the pre market. So it's
all about earnings, and many, many American companies are beating
what analysts had expected it to be.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
Jonathan, have you paid attention at all to American eagle
outfitter stock?
Speaker 2 (02:41):
I think it's as simple as AEO. Of course.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
The big controversy on the actress Sidney Sweeney and her
blue Jeans commercial. I saw a story that that stock
was starting to kind of pie. I think it's it's
a pretty cheap stock, it's ten or eleven bucks, but
it was starting to move up a little bit after
that commercial came out.
Speaker 3 (02:59):
Well, they want a controversy, Mike, I don't know if
they won't want of this type of controversy necessarily, Yes,
And in this Sydney Sweeney has Great Genes campaign has
sparked a real intense debate. As you said, it's about race,
about Western beauty standards, and basically it's the idea of
she has great genes j E E G E N
(03:19):
E S. Yeah, gene j E A N S and
this case she probably has both. Interestingly, American Eagle stock
mic it's stockdown is down about fifty percent year to date,
so they need a little controversy of some sort perhaps
to do and get investors and get consumers back in
the door. But this is turning into kind of one
of these cultural wolf touchdown issues. You know, it seems
(03:41):
like something even five or ten years ago, saying that hey,
this beautiful actress has great genes would have been kind
of seen as not such a big deal. Today it's
you know, a felony crime.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
Yeah, you can thank social media for that.
Speaker 1 (03:55):
So yeah, again, the take your symbol on that as
AEO on American Eagle, And if it's at a kind
of a low, it might be might be an opportunity,
I don't know. Sticking with the earnings report, Starbucks is
kind of.
Speaker 3 (04:09):
Sliding a little bit sliding sliding. You know, they have
had now six straight quarterly drops in US same source
sales and Mike, we've been talking about, you know, attempted
turnarounds at Starbucks for months now, really for well over
a year. But their same source sales fell about two percent. Globally,
same source sales fell about two percent. But they're making
(04:31):
a bit of a change. They are shutting down an
entire type of store. You know, they've had these what
they call the pick up only stores, and you might
have seen them in a lot of big cities where
basically there's no seats, no chairs, no place to sit down.
It's literally pick up only where they are shutting that down,
basically saying not because it's not making money, but their
CEO said that they found the format to be overly
(04:55):
transactional and lacking the warmth and human connection that defines
our brand. Pretty interesting, that's why they're shutting it down.
They want people to feel like Starbucks is a place
you can come in, you can hang out, you can
be greeted. So pick up only cafes on the way out.
As the Starbucks turnaround.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
Attempt continues, imagine that people actually want human interaction and
some sort of experience when they go and get their
overpriced coffee. Speaking with Jonathanhoni Capitalist pig dot Com, explain
to me, there was the President Trump signed in executive
order yesterday.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
What is the deminimous trade loophole?
Speaker 3 (05:33):
Yeah, this is kind of interesting. I mean, for many,
many years, there's been a loophole of exports, basically allowing
people to have exports from countries like China with very
little taxes. It's the total number of the dollar volume
of the good was very low, usually under eight hundred dollars,
and that's what it has inspired all these companies like
(05:55):
TMU for example, Mike that have allowed Americans basically have
very very very very cheap imports. Well, the President that's
taken that off the table. Now, you know, getting rid
of that genominimous loophole, which will put a lot of
these low cost import businesses business models into jeopardy. So
you know, the tariff issue is not off the table
(06:16):
at all. I mean it still continues to be. The
President's going to continue to tinker, but you know a
lot of those extremely low cost imports, not just Amazon.
Team is another one example. You're going to see that
to change as the President puts this.
Speaker 4 (06:30):
Tax which had been suspended back on the table, and
I did did you say that the shares of those
companies of Timu and shan or shy In, they dipped,
the stock dipped a little bit because of that.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
Indeed, I mean this had been this exemption for the
global low cost goods, and so exactly as you said,
we're thinking some of those parent companies PDD holdings of
the company. But Amazon also is also down on the announcement.
They have a third party marketplace which basically ships directly
from China. It's called Hall. So there is a lot
of global trade, but to the US and China make
(07:04):
there's no question and the president, you know, whatever side
of the al you're on, is going to be adding
on a tax for low cost goods.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Yeah, we love our cheap junk from China, don't we.
All Right? I see the final story this morning, Jonathan.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
It's being proposed that Americans get a six hundred dollars
rebate check from tariff revenue, much like we got the
COVID stimulus checks.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
Yeah. Well, this is Josh Hawley's idea. Senator Josh Holly,
Republican from Missouri. I believe he wants to see some
of that tariff money going directly to Americans. He has proposed,
and in fact he's introduced to bill. It would provide
families with up to six hundred dollars per adult and
child for a total family of four of about twenty
four hundred dollars from all the teriffs money that the
(07:48):
Treasury Department is brought in, and the Terror of the
Treasury says that basically through July they have about twenty
billion dollars brought in. The one thing I'll point out, Mike,
it's a political issue, but the tariff money has in
fact come from American Foreign countries do not pay America
do not pay tariff. They're paid by American companies that
import those products to America. So this would be a redistribution,
(08:12):
if you will, but certainly a politically popular one these days.
Josh Holly talking about checks from the tariff revenue off
to every American. We'll see where this goes in congres
All right, we'll switch gears and say good morning to
(00:02):
our capitalist pig. It is Jonathan Hoenig on the Legacy
Retirement Group dot com phone line. Of course, you can
find jonathancapitalist pig dot com. And we had the FED yesterday, Jonathan.
They held rate steady. The Dow and s ANDP and
NASDAK were all sort of mixed because of that.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Good morning.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
Yeah, we had great degree with Mike. Yeah, we're going
to be up pretty sharp with this morning. The NASDAK
up three hundred points on some great technology earnings. But yes,
as you said yesterday, it was all about the feder
Reserve and although the President had wanted the FED to
cut by some three percentage points, this time no change,
basically saying no decisions have been made on September. They're
(00:41):
going to wait and basically be data dependent, keeping an
eye on all those indicators. They've made no decisions, and
we actually get some good indicators about the economy. Ritt
large yesterday, Mike, not gamebusters, but the US economy grew
at about a three percent rate in the second quarter.
That was stronger than expected. Analystics I did only somewhere
on the age about two point three percent. So economy
(01:05):
humming along. It's just greats at least for now, saying
right where they are in the market not far from
its all time high.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
And you know, you're starting to see and the economy grow,
as you pointed out, three percent in the second quarter.
And this is as the tariffs were hitting in April
and May. And you're starting to see a lot of
experts sort of flip the script and go one to
eighty that were critical of Trump and the terriffs, and
they're kind of going these you know, economic experts saying, actually,
(01:34):
this is kind of working.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
It's not really as bad as we thought it was
going to be.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
Well, we're seeing a lot of companies, for example, might
acknowledge that tariff hit but even still managed to beat
earnings when Ford is probably the best example for reporting
earnings yesterday they beat for the second quarter and they
upped their full year guidance, but they also acknowledged that
they paid about eight hundred million dollars in care costs
(01:58):
in the second quarter alone. So I think so much
of what we've seen in terms of the markets is
just the knowledge. You know, we've said for months now
that the market hates uncertainty. Just the knowledge of some
of these tariffs of what exactly they're going to be
giving investors a little more confidence in terms of putting
money to work. But you know, it's all about earnings.
And when you have companies like Wingstop record earnings. That
(02:19):
stock is up about twenty six percent in the pre market.
Or even Microsoft, that company beat on their top and
bottom line on all their cloud strength. That company is
up about eight percent in the pre market. So it's
all about earnings, and many, many American companies are beating
what analysts had expected it to be.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
Jonathan, have you paid attention at all to American eagle
outfitter stock?
Speaker 2 (02:41):
I think it's as simple as AEO. Of course.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
The big controversy on the actress Sidney Sweeney and her
blue Jeans commercial. I saw a story that that stock
was starting to kind of pie. I think it's it's
a pretty cheap stock, it's ten or eleven bucks, but
it was starting to move up a little bit after
that commercial came out.
Speaker 3 (02:59):
Well, they want a controversy, Mike, I don't know if
they won't want of this type of controversy necessarily, Yes,
And in this Sydney Sweeney has Great Genes campaign has
sparked a real intense debate. As you said, it's about race,
about Western beauty standards, and basically it's the idea of
she has great genes j E E G E N
(03:19):
E S. Yeah, gene j E A N S and
this case she probably has both. Interestingly, American Eagle stock
mic it's stockdown is down about fifty percent year to date,
so they need a little controversy of some sort perhaps
to do and get investors and get consumers back in
the door. But this is turning into kind of one
of these cultural wolf touchdown issues. You know, it seems
(03:41):
like something even five or ten years ago, saying that hey,
this beautiful actress has great genes would have been kind
of seen as not such a big deal. Today it's
you know, a felony crime.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
Yeah, you can thank social media for that.
Speaker 1 (03:55):
So yeah, again, the take your symbol on that as
AEO on American Eagle, And if it's at a kind
of a low, it might be might be an opportunity,
I don't know. Sticking with the earnings report, Starbucks is
kind of.
Speaker 3 (04:09):
Sliding a little bit sliding sliding. You know, they have
had now six straight quarterly drops in US same source
sales and Mike, we've been talking about, you know, attempted
turnarounds at Starbucks for months now, really for well over
a year. But their same source sales fell about two percent. Globally,
same source sales fell about two percent. But they're making
(04:31):
a bit of a change. They are shutting down an
entire type of store. You know, they've had these what
they call the pick up only stores, and you might
have seen them in a lot of big cities where
basically there's no seats, no chairs, no place to sit down.
It's literally pick up only where they are shutting that down,
basically saying not because it's not making money, but their
CEO said that they found the format to be overly
(04:55):
transactional and lacking the warmth and human connection that defines
our brand. Pretty interesting, that's why they're shutting it down.
They want people to feel like Starbucks is a place
you can come in, you can hang out, you can
be greeted. So pick up only cafes on the way out.
As the Starbucks turnaround.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
Attempt continues, imagine that people actually want human interaction and
some sort of experience when they go and get their
overpriced coffee. Speaking with Jonathanhoni Capitalist pig dot Com, explain
to me, there was the President Trump signed in executive
order yesterday.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
What is the deminimous trade loophole?
Speaker 3 (05:33):
Yeah, this is kind of interesting. I mean, for many,
many years, there's been a loophole of exports, basically allowing
people to have exports from countries like China with very
little taxes. It's the total number of the dollar volume
of the good was very low, usually under eight hundred dollars,
and that's what it has inspired all these companies like
(05:55):
TMU for example, Mike that have allowed Americans basically have
very very very very cheap imports. Well, the President that's
taken that off the table. Now, you know, getting rid
of that genominimous loophole, which will put a lot of
these low cost import businesses business models into jeopardy. So
you know, the tariff issue is not off the table
(06:16):
at all. I mean it still continues to be. The
President's going to continue to tinker, but you know a
lot of those extremely low cost imports, not just Amazon.
Team is another one example. You're going to see that
to change as the President puts this.
Speaker 4 (06:30):
Tax which had been suspended back on the table, and
I did did you say that the shares of those
companies of Timu and shan or shy In, they dipped,
the stock dipped a little bit because of that.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
Indeed, I mean this had been this exemption for the
global low cost goods, and so exactly as you said,
we're thinking some of those parent companies PDD holdings of
the company. But Amazon also is also down on the announcement.
They have a third party marketplace which basically ships directly
from China. It's called Hall. So there is a lot
of global trade, but to the US and China make
(07:04):
there's no question and the president, you know, whatever side
of the al you're on, is going to be adding
on a tax for low cost goods.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Yeah, we love our cheap junk from China, don't we.
All Right? I see the final story this morning, Jonathan.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
It's being proposed that Americans get a six hundred dollars
rebate check from tariff revenue, much like we got the
COVID stimulus checks.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
Yeah. Well, this is Josh Hawley's idea. Senator Josh Holly,
Republican from Missouri. I believe he wants to see some
of that tariff money going directly to Americans. He has proposed,
and in fact he's introduced to bill. It would provide
families with up to six hundred dollars per adult and
child for a total family of four of about twenty
four hundred dollars from all the teriffs money that the
(07:48):
Treasury Department is brought in, and the Terror of the
Treasury says that basically through July they have about twenty
billion dollars brought in. The one thing I'll point out, Mike,
it's a political issue, but the tariff money has in
fact come from American Foreign countries do not pay America
do not pay tariff. They're paid by American companies that
import those products to America. So this would be a redistribution,
(08:12):
if you will, but certainly a politically popular one these days.
Josh Holly talking about checks from the tariff revenue off
to every American. We'll see where this goes in congres
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