June 12, 2025 • 9 mins
Jonathan Henig of CapitalistPig.com breaks down the numbers from Wall street and also can give clients financial guidance at CapitalistPig.com
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
At ten minutes after eight o'clock, it's flipping over to
the Legacy Retirement Group dot com phone line. Say good
morning to the capitalist pig capitalistig dot com Jonavan Hoenig.
Stock market paused briefly yesterday. The rally was slowed down
as investors looked at the softer than expected inflation numbers.
It wasn't up that much, but it was up, and
I'm surprised that people looked at that more than the
(00:22):
US China trade plan that was kind of put forth
that that didn't offset the inflation numbers.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Good morning, Jonathan, what do you think?
Speaker 3 (00:29):
Great?
Speaker 1 (00:29):
Great to view with you my good morning.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Yeah, and looked there's so much to look at, especially
on the heels of that tragic Air India crash. It
was mentioned earlier that has Boeing stopped the manufacturer the
airplane down by about seven and a half percent this morning,
so Boeing is leaving the stock market over all. The
Dow Jones down by about three hundred points on the open.
But to your point, I mean, so many factors playing
(00:53):
it at the market this year. It has come a
hell of away though, since those lows earlier in February
and April, the market at one point was down about
fifteen percent. It is now up about two percent for
the year. In just about what two months, the markets
come up seventeen percent, which is one of the biggest
turn rounds on records. So plenty of the data, whether
(01:14):
it be inflation, whether it be earnings of political unrest,
but the markets come a hell of a long way,
and it's just a couple of percent from its all
time high.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Yeah, so being up is good and that's overall. I mean,
never mind how we got there, because it's it's like
in school, like you need to show your work on
a math problem, but hey, I got the answer right,
Just don't see how I got there. But yeah, being
up two percent this year is a good thing. So
let's kind of unpack the inflation number. So it has
increased slightly on an annual basis. What about month to.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Month, Well, it was up one tenth so one percent
in May compared with last month, and on an annual basis, Mike,
it's about two point four percent, So it's up, but
certainly below where we were just a few years ago.
And it's still higher than the Fed's preferred inflation rate
of two percent. So you've got what me say, could
be a potentially slowing economy. However, even if inflation's slowing,
(02:07):
a couple of big banking moves yesterday Mike City Group,
that is one of the largest retail banks in the US.
They've got millions of credit card customers. They announced that
they're putting aside hundreds of millions of dollars more than
they did the previous quarter to account for potential losses
on loans. So they're kind of seeing some uncertainty out there,
perhaps seeing some potential for Americans that start defaulting on
(02:29):
loans and putting money aside for that. So, you know,
a lot of analysts mikes, a lot of the economy economists,
despite bullishness on President Trump and his agenda, do feels
of perhaps the inflation is at a turning point, the
economy is at a turning point, and we could be
headed down from here.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
JP Morgan one of them, Jamie Diamond, the CEO of
JP Morgan Chase. He is never in a good mood.
I feel like he is always warning some sort of
doom and gloom. Is he like a nervous nelly when
it comes to the well.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
He definitely has a history of being very cautious on
the market, very very cautious on the economy. I guess
you want that from a banker, to always be prudent
and cautious. But it did say something yesterday that Mike
kind of got has turning. He said and un quoting,
now that I think there's a chance real numbers will
deteriorate soon. He said this at a Morgan Stanley conference.
(03:22):
We got the story over at the NBC. So he
is anticipating that some of those economic numbers will start
to deteriorate. So it hasn't happened yet, but it's prompting
a lot of bankers and a lot of economists to
basically build a fork to prepare now for what could
be harder days ahead.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
What happens when they're wrong, when people like Jamie Diamond
are wrong or City Group are wrong. I mean, you
mentioned in the story there just a second ago, that
they're putting hundreds of millions of dollars aside to account
for potential losses on loans. So what happens to that
money that they set quote unquote aside when there aren't
a bunch of losses on loans?
Speaker 3 (03:55):
Well, I mean, they're in financially impacting it that that
money could have been better, could have been more wisely invested.
I mean, that's truth anyone who misses out on any opportunities.
So uh, I mean, I think Mike, what they're in
the set in effect banking on is the fact that
the economy will slow, unemployment will gain, and they'll be
able to shoulder some of this losses, perhaps better than
(04:16):
their competitors. But to your point, look, Uh, the diamond
has been cautious before, and the economy has continued to
continue to soar, So no one really knows what is
going to happen. They're building a ford now.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
That's that's that's the truth. No one really really knows
what's going to happen.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
Jonathan Hoenig our Capitalist Pig, you have a moment today
check him out at capitalist pig dot com.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
Tesla is picking up gains for a fourth day as
Elon Musk sets his Robotaxi launch date.
Speaker 3 (04:42):
Yeah, and and certainly what's happened with Trump as well.
I mean, it's hard to think of a stock that's
been more firmly intertwined with the company's race administration than
Tesla and of course it has been actually shellacked this year,
but as Elon Musk has mended his relationship with President Trump,
shares have been up, in fact that for four straight
days and twelve percent this week, so it's the Trump Agle,
(05:04):
but it's awesome. As you said that Robotaxi. Elon Musk
has been touting this for many, many months and will
launch in Austin on June twenty seconds, so just a
couple of days from now, and that's got a lot
of investors excited that that's going to be truly the
next new big thing. It's not going to be Uber,
it's going to be the Robotaxi, so no Uber driver
at all, just a completely autominous vehicle. That's the Tesla's
(05:27):
next big bet. And we'll be watching this stock closely.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
Jonathan is.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
More and more of us are trying to eat a
little bit better and eating a little bit cleaner, reading
the food labels and you know, eliminating the artificial dies
and all of that, just trying to eat healthier. Some
of these snack food makers are are kind of feeling
the pinch there. You know, people aren't going for Hostess
twinkies or you know, cupcakes or you know, ding dongs or.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Whatever they are. They're not eating that food as much
as they used to.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
They're not I when we got this story over the
streets that come and you're exactly right, Mike. I mean, basically,
there's a growing in risk in healthier foods, foods with
cleaner labels and lower sugar content, and that's impacting a
lot of those snack manufacturers. JM. Smucker that's the parent brand,
that's the parent company of Hostess brands. They were imported
(06:13):
weaker earnings this year, and it was a lot of
those sweet cakes, those doughnuts that led sales downs. Total
sales are kind about twenty six percent, and particularly within
that sweet subcut category segment probably found about seventy two percent.
So this is a real change in the way that
Americans are eating mic We used to, you know, always
(06:34):
treat ourselves with perhaps a bag of warreos or some
ho hoser ding dongs. Americans are just making healthier choices now,
so impacting shares of Smucker and the food industry written large.
Speaker 1 (06:44):
Yeah, just add some protein powder to it and people
will start buying it up again. That's all people need
right now. What about egg prices. Let's stay in the
food category. Egg prices starting to come down a little bit.
Speaker 3 (06:53):
Yeah, they're down about eleven percent and at the lowest
since December, and they're down twenty seven percent since that
marked record, So they've really come down quite a big mic.
But what's amazing is that despite that huge drop, but
twenty seven percent dropped, those prices are still almost double
from what they were just a year ago. We got
the story over at Bloomberg and so you've got a
(07:15):
price of a great a dozen great aggs about four
dollars and fifty four cents, double still from what it
was just a year ago.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
I saw a story you've got here about homeowners, you know,
buying homes, and there is a commonality amongst, you know,
frequent home buyers, people who have bought and sold a
number of different homes.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
What is that number one complaint?
Speaker 3 (07:37):
Well, the number one is maintenance. And that's something that
we don't think about when we think about the cost
of a home. And Mike, we've been reporting on the
extraordinary difficulty and just getting that first home because of
the cost in recent years. But even those people who
managed to get a home, forty five percent of them
have regrets, and that is because of the maintenance cost.
Pretty amazing, and typical American homeowner spends eight thousand dollars
(08:01):
on home items that are not their mortgage, you know,
things like maintenance and upkeep and painting and stuff like that.
And in some states like Hawaii and California, you're talking
about twenty five, twenty eight, twenty nine thousand dollars a
year just in home maintenance. So that's the number one
complaint in almost half of home buyers regret the purchase
for that reason. The cost of home ownership. It ain't cheap.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
Yeah, it stakes up on it, no doubt. Before I
let you fly, let me hear about this story about
we know that AI use an energy hog and the
amount of energy that it takes to fuel these computers.
And as Sam Altman, who's the chat GPT guy, he
figured out exactly how much energy AI uses.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
It's crazy.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
Yeah, it is pretty interesting, isn't it, Because you know, Michael,
like you know, thirty years ago, forty years ago, none
of us were googling. Now we google, you know, all
throughout the day, and same thing when it comes to
something like chat GPT. You know, many of us I'm
sure our listeners have started to use these AI products,
ask them questions, have them do computations, so Sam Moltman
said they did in the mass. And basically each chappee
(09:05):
GPT query consume is about as much electricity as an
oven does over one second, so we're talking about point
zero zero zero zero eighty five in terms of electricity,
point three four watt hours of electricity, so it's not
too much. And when you think about the benefit you
get from those queries, Mike get's no wonder that these
(09:27):
AI stocks who've been on a run for so long,
and many of them, like Pollunteer, still hitting new all
time high
At ten minutes after eight o'clock, it's flipping over to
the Legacy Retirement Group dot com phone line. Say good
morning to the capitalist pig capitalistig dot com Jonavan Hoenig.
Stock market paused briefly yesterday. The rally was slowed down
as investors looked at the softer than expected inflation numbers.
It wasn't up that much, but it was up, and
I'm surprised that people looked at that more than the
(00:22):
US China trade plan that was kind of put forth
that that didn't offset the inflation numbers.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Good morning, Jonathan, what do you think?
Speaker 3 (00:29):
Great?
Speaker 1 (00:29):
Great to view with you my good morning.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Yeah, and looked there's so much to look at, especially
on the heels of that tragic Air India crash. It
was mentioned earlier that has Boeing stopped the manufacturer the
airplane down by about seven and a half percent this morning,
so Boeing is leaving the stock market over all. The
Dow Jones down by about three hundred points on the open.
But to your point, I mean, so many factors playing
(00:53):
it at the market this year. It has come a
hell of away though, since those lows earlier in February
and April, the market at one point was down about
fifteen percent. It is now up about two percent for
the year. In just about what two months, the markets
come up seventeen percent, which is one of the biggest
turn rounds on records. So plenty of the data, whether
(01:14):
it be inflation, whether it be earnings of political unrest,
but the markets come a hell of a long way,
and it's just a couple of percent from its all
time high.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Yeah, so being up is good and that's overall. I mean,
never mind how we got there, because it's it's like
in school, like you need to show your work on
a math problem, but hey, I got the answer right,
Just don't see how I got there. But yeah, being
up two percent this year is a good thing. So
let's kind of unpack the inflation number. So it has
increased slightly on an annual basis. What about month to.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Month, Well, it was up one tenth so one percent
in May compared with last month, and on an annual basis, Mike,
it's about two point four percent, So it's up, but
certainly below where we were just a few years ago.
And it's still higher than the Fed's preferred inflation rate
of two percent. So you've got what me say, could
be a potentially slowing economy. However, even if inflation's slowing,
(02:07):
a couple of big banking moves yesterday Mike City Group,
that is one of the largest retail banks in the US.
They've got millions of credit card customers. They announced that
they're putting aside hundreds of millions of dollars more than
they did the previous quarter to account for potential losses
on loans. So they're kind of seeing some uncertainty out there,
perhaps seeing some potential for Americans that start defaulting on
(02:29):
loans and putting money aside for that. So, you know,
a lot of analysts mikes, a lot of the economy economists,
despite bullishness on President Trump and his agenda, do feels
of perhaps the inflation is at a turning point, the
economy is at a turning point, and we could be
headed down from here.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
JP Morgan one of them, Jamie Diamond, the CEO of
JP Morgan Chase. He is never in a good mood.
I feel like he is always warning some sort of
doom and gloom. Is he like a nervous nelly when
it comes to the well.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
He definitely has a history of being very cautious on
the market, very very cautious on the economy. I guess
you want that from a banker, to always be prudent
and cautious. But it did say something yesterday that Mike
kind of got has turning. He said and un quoting,
now that I think there's a chance real numbers will
deteriorate soon. He said this at a Morgan Stanley conference.
(03:22):
We got the story over at the NBC. So he
is anticipating that some of those economic numbers will start
to deteriorate. So it hasn't happened yet, but it's prompting
a lot of bankers and a lot of economists to
basically build a fork to prepare now for what could
be harder days ahead.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
What happens when they're wrong, when people like Jamie Diamond
are wrong or City Group are wrong. I mean, you
mentioned in the story there just a second ago, that
they're putting hundreds of millions of dollars aside to account
for potential losses on loans. So what happens to that
money that they set quote unquote aside when there aren't
a bunch of losses on loans?
Speaker 3 (03:55):
Well, I mean, they're in financially impacting it that that
money could have been better, could have been more wisely invested.
I mean, that's truth anyone who misses out on any opportunities.
So uh, I mean, I think Mike, what they're in
the set in effect banking on is the fact that
the economy will slow, unemployment will gain, and they'll be
able to shoulder some of this losses, perhaps better than
(04:16):
their competitors. But to your point, look, Uh, the diamond
has been cautious before, and the economy has continued to
continue to soar, So no one really knows what is
going to happen. They're building a ford now.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
That's that's that's the truth. No one really really knows
what's going to happen.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
Jonathan Hoenig our Capitalist Pig, you have a moment today
check him out at capitalist pig dot com.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
Tesla is picking up gains for a fourth day as
Elon Musk sets his Robotaxi launch date.
Speaker 3 (04:42):
Yeah, and and certainly what's happened with Trump as well.
I mean, it's hard to think of a stock that's
been more firmly intertwined with the company's race administration than
Tesla and of course it has been actually shellacked this year,
but as Elon Musk has mended his relationship with President Trump,
shares have been up, in fact that for four straight
days and twelve percent this week, so it's the Trump Agle,
(05:04):
but it's awesome. As you said that Robotaxi. Elon Musk
has been touting this for many, many months and will
launch in Austin on June twenty seconds, so just a
couple of days from now, and that's got a lot
of investors excited that that's going to be truly the
next new big thing. It's not going to be Uber,
it's going to be the Robotaxi, so no Uber driver
at all, just a completely autominous vehicle. That's the Tesla's
(05:27):
next big bet. And we'll be watching this stock closely.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
Jonathan is.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
More and more of us are trying to eat a
little bit better and eating a little bit cleaner, reading
the food labels and you know, eliminating the artificial dies
and all of that, just trying to eat healthier. Some
of these snack food makers are are kind of feeling
the pinch there. You know, people aren't going for Hostess
twinkies or you know, cupcakes or you know, ding dongs or.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Whatever they are. They're not eating that food as much
as they used to.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
They're not I when we got this story over the
streets that come and you're exactly right, Mike. I mean, basically,
there's a growing in risk in healthier foods, foods with
cleaner labels and lower sugar content, and that's impacting a
lot of those snack manufacturers. JM. Smucker that's the parent brand,
that's the parent company of Hostess brands. They were imported
(06:13):
weaker earnings this year, and it was a lot of
those sweet cakes, those doughnuts that led sales downs. Total
sales are kind about twenty six percent, and particularly within
that sweet subcut category segment probably found about seventy two percent.
So this is a real change in the way that
Americans are eating mic We used to, you know, always
(06:34):
treat ourselves with perhaps a bag of warreos or some
ho hoser ding dongs. Americans are just making healthier choices now,
so impacting shares of Smucker and the food industry written large.
Speaker 1 (06:44):
Yeah, just add some protein powder to it and people
will start buying it up again. That's all people need
right now. What about egg prices. Let's stay in the
food category. Egg prices starting to come down a little bit.
Speaker 3 (06:53):
Yeah, they're down about eleven percent and at the lowest
since December, and they're down twenty seven percent since that
marked record, So they've really come down quite a big mic.
But what's amazing is that despite that huge drop, but
twenty seven percent dropped, those prices are still almost double
from what they were just a year ago. We got
the story over at Bloomberg and so you've got a
(07:15):
price of a great a dozen great aggs about four
dollars and fifty four cents, double still from what it
was just a year ago.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
I saw a story you've got here about homeowners, you know,
buying homes, and there is a commonality amongst, you know,
frequent home buyers, people who have bought and sold a
number of different homes.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
What is that number one complaint?
Speaker 3 (07:37):
Well, the number one is maintenance. And that's something that
we don't think about when we think about the cost
of a home. And Mike, we've been reporting on the
extraordinary difficulty and just getting that first home because of
the cost in recent years. But even those people who
managed to get a home, forty five percent of them
have regrets, and that is because of the maintenance cost.
Pretty amazing, and typical American homeowner spends eight thousand dollars
(08:01):
on home items that are not their mortgage, you know,
things like maintenance and upkeep and painting and stuff like that.
And in some states like Hawaii and California, you're talking
about twenty five, twenty eight, twenty nine thousand dollars a
year just in home maintenance. So that's the number one
complaint in almost half of home buyers regret the purchase
for that reason. The cost of home ownership. It ain't cheap.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
Yeah, it stakes up on it, no doubt. Before I
let you fly, let me hear about this story about
we know that AI use an energy hog and the
amount of energy that it takes to fuel these computers.
And as Sam Altman, who's the chat GPT guy, he
figured out exactly how much energy AI uses.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
It's crazy.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
Yeah, it is pretty interesting, isn't it, Because you know, Michael,
like you know, thirty years ago, forty years ago, none
of us were googling. Now we google, you know, all
throughout the day, and same thing when it comes to
something like chat GPT. You know, many of us I'm
sure our listeners have started to use these AI products,
ask them questions, have them do computations, so Sam Moltman
said they did in the mass. And basically each chappee
(09:05):
GPT query consume is about as much electricity as an
oven does over one second, so we're talking about point
zero zero zero zero eighty five in terms of electricity,
point three four watt hours of electricity, so it's not
too much. And when you think about the benefit you
get from those queries, Mike get's no wonder that these
(09:27):
AI stocks who've been on a run for so long,
and many of them, like Pollunteer, still hitting new all
time high
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com