The 151st running of The Kentucky Derby!

Mike makes his pick for tomorrow's race. We'll see what happens.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Kentucky Derby one hundred and fifty first running of the
Roses is tomorrow night, Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Post
time set for just before seven o'clock, six fifty seven.
Got about twenty three year old colts going at it
in the first leg of the Triple Crown. And it's funny,
if you know, I'll watch this, and I do like
horse racing, and then I'll watch the I think it's

(00:22):
the Preakness is the next one, and if the same
horse doesn't win, then I'm out on. I'm I always
like to see the prospect of a triple Crown, right,
you know, they call it the most exciting two minutes
in sports. And you got a mile and a quarter
track and it's going to be wet Louisville. Looked at
the weather Louisville. They've got like a ninety nine percent

(00:43):
chance of showers tomorrow, much like the weather is going
to be here.

Speaker 2 (00:46):
Now.

Speaker 1 (00:46):
Will it be raining at post time? Don't know. There's
some saying that it could clear out a little bit,
but it'll have been raining all day and there's races
all day at Churchill Downs.

Speaker 2 (00:57):
I always wondered that because I mean, you know, you
wait so long the build up for such a fast race.
I was wondering, there's got to be other what do
you call them heats or just races or.

Speaker 1 (01:06):
Yeah, there's there's a number of different races before. I
think the Oaks maybe is the one. I'm maybe getting
my races mixed up. But there's a number of different
races before the Derby. So then you look at the
track conditions that everyone's like, well, you got to pick
a mutter. You got to pick a horse that has
experience running on a sloppy track or a wet track.

Speaker 2 (01:28):
Okay, you know.

Speaker 1 (01:30):
So the favorite right now is Journalism, going off at
about three to one odds. I've seen that change from
three to one to seven to two. And a great
post position too, right in the middle. You're not stuck
against the rail, you're not too far outside coming out
of the eight hole. Journalism, very fast horse. But how
will he run in the mud? Is the question? Next

(01:53):
best odds horse called Sovereignty again, another fast, strong horse.
Terrible draw coming out of the eighteen hole, which is
far outside. Okay, so you're gonna have to cover You're
gonna have to cover a lot of ground. To get
towards the rail, so we'll see what happens. And then Sandman,
a horse that I like. It's being ridden by Jose Ortiz,

(02:16):
a very experienced jockey. Sandman six to one odds again,
seventeen hole on the outside. So some of these horses
on the seventeen and eighteen hole gonna have to cover
a lot of ground to get inside.

Speaker 2 (02:29):
So you want the horses that you want horses to
mutter and can get the lead early and maybe hold
it because when you're behind all that mud that kicks up,
that's gotta be well. The major problem for the other.

Speaker 1 (02:39):
Horse absolutely if you're if you're not in the top
two or three horses there, you're gonna be it's gonna
be a really messy ride. You know, the jockeys, the
goggles get yeah, the horses get dirty. It's not a
pleasant experience when you're getting all that blowback.

Speaker 2 (02:54):
So you're hoping you get a good clean start based
I mean on the terrain. That's gonna be tough, but
I mean so the best start to maybe be able
to hold that.

Speaker 1 (03:03):
Or you find yourself, you find yourself on a trip
that doesn't have a horse in front of you, maybe
you're you're a couple of horse horses outside from the rail,
so you're not all jammed up, and you've gotten nobody
directly in front of you, so you've got to clean
a clean view and you don't have to lead wire
to wire. So some of the horses that have performed

(03:24):
well in the mud, lux Or Cafe, which is the
one of two Japanese horses, Japanese horse Japanese have been
trying to win the Kentucky Derby for a couple of years.
There's a number of horses they don't typically farewell because
you think about it, they got to make the trip over,

(03:44):
that's a long that's a long community.

Speaker 2 (03:47):
Are they relatively new to getting into the sport.

Speaker 1 (03:50):
Not the sport but here in this country at the derby. Yes,
it's been a recent phenomenon, but lux Or Cafe has
had some success on wet and loppy tracks. A horse
that we mentioned with Ron Wilson last half hour at
Grande again ridden by a very experienced Kentucky Derby winning jockey,

(04:10):
John Velasquez, also trained by Todd Pletcher. So you probably
recognize those names, Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert. Those are the
big name high dollar trainers. Yeah, so Grande out of
the ten hole again, a very desirable post position right
down the middle there, so you can You've got your
options there. You want to stay outside, you want to
get in. But Grande at this point still considered a

(04:34):
long shot at seventeen to one. But I would expect
those numbers to come down as people start placing their bets.

Speaker 2 (04:40):
Who was the one you said had the bad draw?
Was it sovereignty that he said it was on the
way on the outside.

Speaker 1 (04:44):
Sovereignty is at an eighteen hole, Sandman's at seventeen.

Speaker 2 (04:47):
I'm taking I'm still gonna take sovereignty. And I say
that because I'm thinking clean track or clear track, even
though he's got to make his way longer over. I
think he can pull that off if he can get
a good angle and get in.

Speaker 1 (05:01):
And then a trendy pick has been Burnham square. Yea
Burnham square is the odds have gone the wrong direction.
Started at a twelve to one, has moved up to
seventeen to one. But that Burnham squares look good in
the last couple of races. OK. But here's the problem.
It's easy to look good when you're running a mile,
you know, a mile or a mile and a sixteenth. Yeah,

(05:23):
you know, this is the longest race for any of
these horses at a mile and a quarter for the Derby.
So the extra you know, fraction of a mile, the
extra few furlongs. Yeah, well you'll start to see some
horses get real tired, real quick after about a mile
and a sixteenth. So it's going to be really chrick
That's why I'm kind of fading on the Burnham Square.
Pick looked good, maybe a little tired at a mile

(05:44):
and a sixteenth in one of the previous races. We'll
see what he could do at a mile and a quarter.