September 14, 2025 • 37 mins
Chad Millman and Simon Hunter lock in their FINAL picks before NFL Week 2 kicks off, as they do every Sunday morning, and tell you which bets are sharp or square. Get their last-minute betting advice using the latest lines for the big football matchups: Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets, New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams vs Tennessee Titans, San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints, and more.
All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet.
Timeline:
02:00 - Intro
03:19 - Rams-Titans
07:38 - Bills-Jets
12:00 - Giants-Cowboys
18:05 - Eagles-Chiefs
28:00 - Seahawks-Steelers
33:33 - Broncos-Colts
36:01 - 49ers-Saints
38:44 - Jaguars-Bengals
40:53 - Patriots-Dolphins
41:48 - Falcons-Vikings
42:16 - NFL Week 2 Contest Picks
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock I Bet.
We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is
the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes
the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I
am joined by my cro host, my bff, my companion, Mikepadre,
Professional Better Signmon Hunter. Hello, Simon, Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Good morning, Happy week to brother.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Week two, My man. This is the strip down in
the room eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. We will be
doing this Sunday mornings during the season. Most listeners know
Simon and I have entered against the spread pick them
contests every season. We have done the show together five
games against the spread. Every week. You and I always
have a ten to fifteen minute conversation that nobody ever
(00:46):
got to hear. To review our final picks. Make sure
we didn't include games where injuries have been reported or
we were on the wrong side of massive line, massive
line moves. This is that conversations. Sometimes it's easy. I
feel like today is going to be pretty easy. Sometimes
it's hard. We're going to have to figure it out together.
(01:09):
You're ridid role as Simon.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Ready brother.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
All Right, So Listen, these are the games we had
zeroed in on the other day, Rams at Tennessee contest
line is five and a half. It's still five and
a half. This was our brass balls bet again. We
thought the Rams would be down two o line men.
They are only down one left guard, Steve Avila. Look,
(01:36):
I bet it at five and a half. I still
like it at this number. No reason for me to
walk away, what about you?
Speaker 2 (01:44):
Yeah, and people are going to see a theme here.
There's bets we've made. We like. My fear with these
bets that we made is that they're just kind of
flat numbers.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
Right, we're betting a five and a half. We'd obviously
before the six and a half. We're kind of again,
we're betting into a number that's good number, but it's not.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
It's not great. No, it really isn't because it's the Rams.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
We know we're betting against Stafford, who, Yeah, you didn't
look great last week, but this is week two, like
we this really is. It's just so early that you
can't you try not to take too much away from
week one, right, Chad, So looking at this this game,
I think my feeling is probably the same as yours.
Speaker 2 (02:25):
Is that.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
This Tennessee team just is not as bad as people
think they are. And you know, we're rolling the dice
you on cam Ward because I like, I think we
both agree. We thought he looked better than the game
played out against the Broncos, and uh, this Rams team
should not be as good, especially in the secondary, as
that Broncos team. But we know, betting on a rookie
(02:48):
in this spot against McVay and Stafford, you could get rolled.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
So to me, people out there, if you're fighting.
Speaker 3 (02:55):
This one, I get it. But when I stand on
this one, it's just got it. At four, it's five
and a half. I love cam Ward, I love this
matchup for this Tennessee's defense, and you know, like you said,
we wish both guys were out obviously betting this Tennessee
tie with Jeffrey Simmons, but I don't think it matters.
I think he's that dominant and we have so many
(03:16):
questions about that offensive line. And you saw with Houston
that Houston much better pass attack, I'll agree than this
Tennessee team, but they didn't have any Houston have anyone
in the middle like Jeffrey Simmons, and I think that's
something people are gonna see that's gonna be a big
weakness for this RAMS team. So yeah, scary, scary spot
taking the rookie year. But I love this Tennessee team.
(03:37):
I think they're still being overvalued. I'm sure we'll be
on the other side of them, but as we stayed
there in week two, it's still all public money right
now on this RAMS side. So we're feeling pretty good
about this Tennessee and just the number we're taking it
five and a half. If you can find the six,
obviously people get the six.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
I I think we're gonna we're gonna talk about games
where there's sort of a five and a half versus
six and a half. And look, I feel comfortable at
the five and a half. Five is kind of a
dead number. There's a big difference going from five to
five and a half six six and a half.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Yeah, and you just said it's dead numbers.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
Dead number, So five and a half. I feel totally
good about it. I actually am feeling more confident about
it in my head than I think the way you
sound about it.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
So just about picked behind the curtage, Chad.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
I did tell you I went to a wedding yesterday
and I've been literally working through the night. So I like,
if it sounds like I've been awake for thirty six
hours and I went to a wedding in between, that
it's true.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
That is factual.
Speaker 1 (04:38):
I'm not gonna lie to you. You don't sound great,
you don't sound like you had a rested evening, and
you are ready to sit down.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
And I wish I could say it was fun, but
I cula'tve enjoyed the wedding because all I was doing
in my mind was just thinking football. It was. It
was honestly, I got a problem.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Yeah that's the way some people would say you've got
a great life.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Yeah I do.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
I tell people I do for six months out of
the year, but the other six months it's just all
I'm doing.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Honestly.
Speaker 3 (05:04):
It's like, even though we had a good week last week,
I was already on the week two in my mind
about four o'clock midway through Sunday last week.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
So it's I'm excited for this week. I mean, I
love these lines, but I'm already like, man, week two,
you just hear so much noise again, We're we're gonna
have these games here. It's just crazy.
Speaker 3 (05:22):
The feedback I'm getting from our show because just our
show's gotten so big. Now I'm just hearing so much noise.
It's crazy.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
Block out the noise. Let's focus on us.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
That's true, right that.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
It's like any healthy relationship, Simon, focus on you and me,
And right now, you and I are going to talk
about the Bills at the Jets. The Jets six and
a half. Okay, it has been stuck on six and
a half. I have not met this yet. I am
going to, but I'm kind of hoping it'll get to seven.
I don't think it's going to get there, but that's
(05:54):
sort of why I've been hanging on. We still like
it at six and a half. It will be one
of our final five. I've been liking it more and
more as the week is going on. I've really been
thinking about the Jets are not interested in moral victories.
I love the way they played last week the more
and I have rewatched that game. I love their offense.
(06:16):
I feel like they had an incredible game and they
should have won that game, and they were on the
wrong side of luck in that game, and the Bills
just had such an emotional win a late night game.
Now going on the road, they're not going to have
that same emotional lift and their defense is in real trouble,
(06:36):
especially in the defensive backfield. No fear, no fear on
the Jets at six.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
And a half.
Speaker 3 (06:44):
Yeah, and for our show, you know, the Sharper square side,
this is definitely our sharpest pick most likely where it's
shaking me a little public here, right, because there's always
going to be those fans of Justin Fields and saw
what he did last week, and they're just gonna blindly
bet the Jets here. But I think they're kind of
partially getting the picture of it, which is my view
of it coming into the season, where I know it
(07:06):
sounded crazy talking about in August, but this is the
Ravens light this Jets offense, right, you have a mobile
quarterback that can push the ball down the field.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
And you know, say what you want about Brestaw, he's
a talented running back.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
So they're not gonna obviously put up the type of
numbers the Ravens do, but we're not looking for that.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
We're looking for a team that can.
Speaker 3 (07:26):
Do an outside zone Reid options. That's all the Ravens
simply did against that Bills team and it was you know,
felt like the bad at that thousand, it was perfect.
It could not be stopped. I mean the one on
one you saw the gaping holes. Now, yeah, Jets offensive
line step down from the Ravens. They're running back is
a step down from the Ravens. The quarterback is a
(07:48):
step down. We're not looking for forty points here, right,
We're looking for fields can get us up to that
twenty four to thirty points, keep us in range because
Josh Allen's going to get his we know, we know
we're been in two year chat. We're we've been into
the raven I mean the bills last week, so you
know it's a good number. There's a there's a really
public book out there that's already moved a five and
(08:10):
a half. So if they're at five and a half,
I'm assuming these other very public books moved that way.
I know hard Rock, you know, they're at five and
a half now as well. And here in Jersey they're
been bouncing between the six and a half and the six.
This morning hard Rock went to five and a half.
It's a big deal. So you know, the professional side
(08:31):
is going to be this Jets side. And we talked
about all the teasers, all of it. It's all going
to be bills money.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
So I like you, like you.
Speaker 3 (08:39):
I feel confident in our spot, and I'm just so
happy we have the six and a half because we
need every point here against Josh Allen. So good, good number,
good spot, underrated Jets team that's in my mind. We're
praying they pull off the upset and it's a nice,
nice fade next week on this Jets team because they're,
you know, a sixty yard field goal away from being
(09:02):
one to oher from last week and in the spot
that the potential could be two and oh and it's
like I think the general public is still sleep on
this team. And yeah, once again we're banking on fields
as a as a dog higher than three, which is
usually a good spot to back them. So six and
a half will take that every time in the contest.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
By the way, while you were talking, I started getting
nervous that this line was moving in the apposite direction.
So I bet the six and a half. If people
are watching and they saw me squinting and looking away,
it's only because I decided to We're not going to
get that seven.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
I'm not going to get I just never thought I
was gonna get back there.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
I got that. I took the six and a half.
I tried to be as patient as I could. All Right,
Titans and Jets, pretty sharp plays so far. We're on
the sharp side in both of those games. Five and
a half and six and a half.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
I definitely say the sharp the sharp number for the Titans,
that was the six.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
Yeah, but the sharp side is still going to be
the Titans regardless. The New York Giants at Dallas, Dallas
at five and a half, pretty much settling there. We know,
we got a little bit of grief from wise guys
that we were on the square side on Thursday. I'm
(10:16):
seeing everything everyone is saying. Russell Wilson will be better
against this Cowboys' secondary than he was against the Commander's secondary.
Deron Bland is out for the Cowboys. I'm just looking
purely at a quarterback quarterback situation. I'm gonna bet on
(10:38):
dak at home in a dead number that is lower
than six. Andrew Thomas out for the Giants. This team
has not been able to figure out how to protect
quarterbacks or how to run the ball when Andrew Thomas
has been out the past two seasons, Wandale Robinson limited
in practice, questionable for the game. If he does play,
he will be hobbled. He had more receptions last week
(11:00):
and thelak neighbors. So I don't love the roster that
the Giants are putting on the field, and I do
love what the Cowboys can do at home with a
much better quarterback. So I'm still on the Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
Yeah, I'm trying to find the Andrew Thomas news because
that to me, I'm right there with you. That's a
huge deal.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
He's been doubtful all week.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
The expectations practice all week either, like.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
The expectations are that he will not play.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
I agree with you.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
I was just hoping, I'd hope. I was hoping Cheffy
would do is like three a m. Tweet he was out,
but never came. I'm not gonna lie to I sat
there at one point for like thirty minutes just dead
staring in social media because I was just like, tweet it.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
I like, you have been checking this NonStop, Like I
really I want it to be true because I think
it's key to the bet. And we're look, that's what
we're doing. We're anticipating, we're prognosticating we're.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
All that. I just need it because it's this is
such Oh it's spot we never take like this is
a gift. I can't believe this is under six.
Speaker 3 (12:08):
It's been getting pounded all week by the public and
professionals alike. And we talked about the the pros came
in on the Giant side every time it touches six.
So scary, scary, scary, scary. But I'm just gonna keep
believing in they just overvaling a Giants team. And why
(12:30):
wouldn't the public be on this Cowboys team?
Speaker 2 (12:32):
Right?
Speaker 3 (12:32):
They look good in a primetime game, which I mean
you talked about that CD drops. How does CD not
come out here where one hundred and fifty yards I
saw Cowherd took his prop. I know it's super choky,
but I love to play because it's like this man
I saw the night they got back from that Eagles game.
He apparently went to the facility and just use the
(12:52):
jug machine, which you could say, oh, that's a looking
me thing.
Speaker 2 (12:56):
This dude's got the money. He's not out there for
look at me. This is this is more than that.
This is a true high level competitor.
Speaker 3 (13:03):
So CD pickens I don't see how the secondary of
that Giants team stops that that one.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
Two.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
Obviously, the running game will struggle for the Cowboys. It's
not gonna be like the Eagles without Jaalen Carter. That
to be will be the difference maybe the game, and
that's maybe the Giants can attack it. But like you
just said, we both think Russ looked absolutely finished against
the Washington defense.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
That you saw.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
The middle of the field for Washington against the Green
Bay was wide open. They have a thirty six year
old linebacker and Bobby Wagner trying to cover twenty four
to twenty five year old tight ends. Like Washington's has
their own issues, the Giants did not expose a single
one of them. So yeah, I'm I think we're in
the same page. It's I'm confident. I know I'm being
(13:48):
these words. When they win this game by three and
it's like, how did that just happen? It's weak two,
It's it's weird things are going to happen. But I
don't know, it just feel like it's a bad number
from the books and we're going to good number here.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
So dude, listen, we always know that one of our
blind spots is not playing favorites in our final five,
and I think that this is an opportunity where we
are comfortable with the good quarterback against the bad quarterback
at home. To me, that's the end, that's that's the
ball game. And honestly, I think there are harder decisions.
(14:22):
For example, I.
Speaker 2 (14:23):
Know, I'm just scared because we have two of these
this week and it's week two. It's like we two.
Speaker 3 (14:29):
We know Week two is such like an overreaction in
Week one, and I feel like we're not overreacting.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
But yeah, I don't get this line. That's what's freaking
me out. Chad.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
What pros are putting big money on this? I know
they're out there. I've talked to them and it's like,
I can't believe. You just love putting your heavy Your
biggest bet of the weekend is on Russell Wilson and
this Giants team back to back weeks.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
Tell me this doesn't feel like the Panthers last year,
where they have bought in on something they think they
are seeing with the Giants and it might be six seven,
eight weeks before everything they thought they saw for the Giants.
I think it's really about this defensive line coming to
fruition because the quarterback play is so bad and that
(15:15):
is undoing everything.
Speaker 3 (15:17):
But it's like this d line against a young guy
maybe makes sense, but it's like you went, we saw
last week, but now you're getting Dak. Like Dak is
just like we talked before the season, he's just an
underrated guy. And I think that was the biggest wake
up called the public and most people watching that Eagles game.
It's like, oh, yeah, this is this is a healthy
Dak with confidence putting the pushing the ball downfield because
(15:38):
it's a dying art. These guys just do not push
the ball fifteen twenty yards down the field anymore. And
Dak's still in that mode of pushing the ball, taking
higher risk. And yeah, I think we're in the same Patriot,
I just the Russell Wilson. This is Jackson Dart. I
actually would look at this differently, but yeah, it feels
like there's nothing less than Russ and he might be
making us eat those words as we meet it later
(15:59):
on tonight.
Speaker 1 (16:00):
All Right, we're feeling good about Titans, We're feeling good
about Jets, We're feeling good ish about Cowboys. You said
we have two of these Philadelphia minus one and a
half at Kansas City. Some money starting to come in
on Kansas City this morning. We're starting to see this
line move back in that direction. If one and a
(16:21):
half is the prevailing line that people can get, how
are we feeling about this right now? Because I'll be honest,
on Thursday, you one hundred percent convinced me that the
Eagles were the right side. You were on a roll.
I don't think anything has changed my mind since then.
(16:42):
But are we courageous enough to make this one of
our final five when the money might be moving against
us now? And we know how scary it is to
bet a game when the line is flipped from plus
one to minus one?
Speaker 3 (16:56):
It is, But like in my mind a lot of
stuff this year, with our contest, I've come to realization,
especially after last week, I'd rather lose this bet here
on Hurts in this spot than lose it on I
don't know, Drake may or yeah, Daniel Jones, because I
(17:16):
like those spots. I like those numbers. But here we're
getting a good number on a good team. You know, Hurts,
We've all seen the stats, right. I think he's at
fifteen straight wins in games he's finished for the Eagles,
So you know, incredible run on the flip side, this
could be the low of lows, right, I mean the
(17:38):
amount of pros I've heard from this week, and I've
heard what they're saying. I get their position. Anyone can
see their position coming from a mile away. Right, Oh
my god, it's my homes. You think moms going over too?
Like it's never ending amount of who is that guy?
Speaker 2 (17:55):
Is? He?
Speaker 1 (17:55):
Is he a sixty five year old dude from South
Jersey with a you're in a cigar.
Speaker 2 (18:01):
That's where I'm at. I'm an ac baby.
Speaker 3 (18:04):
It's it's never ending like it's it's so much throwing
stuff from the past into your face. I get where
they're coming from because I do take into account what
happened in the past.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
Obvio seen how big of a deal is. But what
does it have to do anything with this season?
Speaker 3 (18:19):
That the Chiefs have never been oh too since twenty
fourteen or in the Mahomes era, in the any Rid air,
they've never been over too? Have they ever had a
brutal start where they went to Brazil and then played
the defending home defending champion at home the following week?
And did they lose their one and two receiver that
they desperately needed.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
And it's just and are they all getting other than Mahomes?
Are their best players closer to mid thirties than early
thirties right or twenties?
Speaker 3 (18:52):
And it's football, Like the football, nothing lasts forever in
the sport. I mean that Belichick, Brady Error, the greatness,
Randy Moss, Gronk, all these amazing pieces. Raindy never got
a ring with those teams. Like there's just there's windows
for these different organizations. And I'm not saying this is
(19:15):
the window closed on this team, but this team is
going to be so different November than they are right
now with this Chiefs team, and they're being priced in
this game like this is a November game. So I
make the line two and a half. It's one crazy
good value on this Eagle side. And I get the
professional side, right. This is you know, every talk in
(19:38):
it on TV, every Joe public will be on the Eagles.
And this is why we talked about like this cowboy
side is Egle side. I don't feel great about it,
but it's also something I'm trying to attack. To me
and Chad had a weakness with last year where we
just were scared off of public favorites like this, and
you know it's weak two. I can easily eat this,
but you're gonna see this season. I'm gonna take stands
(19:58):
on this type of spots. And you know, this Chiefs team,
it's it's it's a team that's really gotten me and
chatting these exact spots every time we've gone against them.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
But it's just not the same Chiefs team from those past.
It's just the defense too.
Speaker 3 (20:14):
When I broke down their defense with Spags, he is
calling the same defense he always calls. The pieces are
just so new and different. They look lost, they look slow.
They're not just playing the play in the field. They're
thinking and trying to react to what they're thinking. You're
done in Spags defense are too slow. So yeah, we'll see.
(20:36):
Like this is the type of game where I think
it's gonna be in the nineties.
Speaker 2 (20:39):
Maybe some rain. You know, I don't know. Nothing favors
this Chiefs team.
Speaker 3 (20:44):
Like it's if it was thirty degrees and snowing, I
could see it working from an arrowhead. But it's September.
They're banged up, Eagles are healthy. You know, it's just
it just lines up. It's a good spot for this team.
And yeah, pros were shows. I'll ride with the public
in this exact spot. This is our squares bet of
(21:04):
the week for sure.
Speaker 1 (21:06):
You sound like you are in agony right now talking
about this, like the.
Speaker 2 (21:13):
Chat, it's scary.
Speaker 3 (21:14):
Like I woke like when I woke up whatever there
was Friday morning, like I literally had like a horrible
must have a horrible dream, and I was just like,
oh my God, like Mahomes dog at home.
Speaker 2 (21:25):
What am I doing? But I've been settling back into it.
I'm just I I have so much money on it.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
I just can't believe that this number has not budged,
like you said, it's sitting at one and a half
all week. Like we did our Sunday night show talk
about the Eagles as a dog, they flipped to a
favorite come Monday morning, it's been stuck.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
Yeah, all week.
Speaker 3 (21:45):
So game of the week. I can't believe it's not
the Sunday night game. I'm so happy so I can
finally sleep after our show on Sunday. But yeah, this
is a this is a great number, and we'll see Mahomes.
All you can think of is Mahome's magic. There's no
other re gonna take the Chiefs team like we could
get lay word that Worthy's gonna play. But seriously, that's
(22:06):
that's such a stretch when you think about the injuries
coming off of and yeah, Andy Reid said most it's
not likely that he plays, but they're still obviously leaving
the door open that he could. So you know, the
stummer could go down. But I think if once he
gets said that he's out, this could easily go up
to two.
Speaker 2 (22:22):
So I'm going to take it now. Now that's out
one and a half for this Eagles side.
Speaker 1 (22:25):
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gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
I'm taking Seattle in Pittsburgh, which we loved all week,
off the board because that number has moved to two
and a half in a lot of places. And there's
even though Joey Porter is going to be out for
the Steelers, Devin Witherspoon is going to be out for
(25:01):
maybe out for the Seahawks, So I have some injury
concerns in that game as well as a concern about
the number. Do you feel strongly in opposing me in
removing this from our list.
Speaker 3 (25:18):
No, it's bad numbers two and a half in our contest.
There are books out there right now sitting on three
and a half for the Seahawks, So.
Speaker 2 (25:28):
Just go grab it.
Speaker 3 (25:30):
Like we said, it's a Tomlin spot to motivate his defense.
This total is a forty. I mean it's been coming
down and Chad just said that the Pittsburgh's defense is
banged up.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
But I don't know the books.
Speaker 3 (25:46):
You're thinking Tomlin's going to motivate the guys, or maybe
it says more about the Seahawks defense and I mean
offense and defense. But yeah, three and a half with
a total of forty when we have a really good
defense in the Seahawks side, we'll see It's It's obviously
we were banking a lot on Sam Donald, but it's
it's really about the running scheme and that's where you
(26:06):
think you can attack this Pittsburgh team.
Speaker 2 (26:08):
So yeah, no need to put it in at a
bad number.
Speaker 3 (26:10):
But three and a half, people, if you want to
be on the same side as me, I'm I'm taking
that three and a half right now.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
I have thoughts on Dallas on Denver at Indie. That
feels like the final game potentially to me. We can
get it at two and a half. It's gone up
since we talked about it on Thursday when you loved
it at too. Do you have any other games other
(26:38):
than that that you feel strongly about that should be
our fifth.
Speaker 3 (26:43):
Yeah, I mean we can break down the Indie game.
It's you know, a unique spot in the sense that
the Broncos were the all hype team coming into this
and I thought the Cold to be caught copping a
lot more love from the general public, and they're not right.
Speaker 2 (27:03):
Everyone's kind of to them themselves. Well maybe Miami's just
that bad.
Speaker 3 (27:06):
And I don't overreact to that Denver team, where my
view of it coming to the season is the same thing.
After two weeks or I guess a week now is
the second year quarterbacks after the first year, and all
the tape these defenses have to study. You've seen a
playout now in a couple of games. I mean the
biggest one was that Green Bay game. You saw a
(27:27):
converted effort to heavily, heavily pressure Daniels's right side, right
like that if you can get him to move to
his left to throw across his body. It was pretty
clear he had a glaring weakness there. And it sounds stupid,
like have they not figured that out last year? But
they're just little things like that, little details that some
(27:48):
team figures out and focuses on and other teams don't
notice it or exploit it the year before, but the
offense they do. And watching that Denver game there's a
lot of ways Tennessee can make him really and I
like the the idea of you know, we're getting a
good number. And that's where I agree with you that
(28:09):
if this will be our last one in again, it's
not a final one like yet I have it in
there at two and a half. I'm with you, chat,
I'll take it. But my fear of my doubt here
is just are we overvalue this Colts team after one week?
And we both agree that they are good and there
are some things we really like about them, but I
(28:32):
believe their number one and number three or corners are
out of this game. That's a big deal, Colts. I'm
miss send you guys with their secondary. So there's a
couple of games here we'll talk about. But that's the
biggest pause for.
Speaker 2 (28:44):
Me on that one.
Speaker 1 (28:45):
All Right, what am I missing?
Speaker 2 (28:48):
Where we at with this Saints number?
Speaker 1 (28:50):
I knew you were going to bring that up.
Speaker 3 (28:52):
It's four and a half in our contest three live.
Trent might not play. He's working out before the game.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
I mean we talk all the time, like if you
don't have him, that forty offense is not the same.
He is just.
Speaker 3 (29:10):
The ultimate game changer between the run, scheme, everything. He
just does everything so well.
Speaker 2 (29:17):
My fear here is.
Speaker 3 (29:19):
It's Shanahan with a backup, and for some reason you
dive into the numbers. He does really well with backup quarterbacks.
Speaker 1 (29:27):
So how many times have we said this? I don't
think there's anybody who enjoys coaching when his team is
injured and he's got to play backups more than Shanahan.
I think he loves the challenge. I think his teams outperform.
I think other teams think they're going to have an advantage,
and he can scheme like nobody else in the NFL.
(29:50):
So I know there's a big discrepancy in the numbers,
but I'm really ready to put one of our precious
five on the same.
Speaker 3 (30:00):
That's why it's like I'm not forcing it, and I
just that one jumped out to me right away where
it's like it's four and a half, they might be
on their best.
Speaker 1 (30:07):
I'm with you on Indy, like I have not bet
the Indie game. You've been talking about it all week.
I have not been able to get myself there because
I think there was some fluky stuff in that first game.
They had the perfect team, perfect matchup, perfect game. Denver's
defense is much better than Miami's, obviously, but I'd be
more comfortable with Indy than I would be with New Orleans,
(30:28):
to be honest.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
Yeah, I just I can't get over how good Party is,
especially to that team. Yeah, and.
Speaker 3 (30:36):
You know, the past, the past record we're talking about
with Shanahan and this team, I think it's fair to
say they've been better in the past than they are
right now in many aspects. I mean, they just, like
we say all the time, you pay your superstars, the
rest of the team is going to suffer. So you
know they've paid these superstars. Okay, are you not playing Party?
Speaker 2 (30:55):
Not playing?
Speaker 1 (30:57):
Kittle not playing?
Speaker 2 (30:58):
Yeah, Kittle not.
Speaker 3 (30:59):
Playing, No, Trent, that's about what one hundred million right there?
Not playing for your offense. Whatever it is, it's it's
a big deal and we're going to see that. So
I think both our hesitation is just the fact that,
right Shanahan with the backup, But it's also, like you said,
the thought of having this Saints team and we're down
fourteen and I need Spencer Rattler does somehow get me
(31:21):
back from a fourteen oh a hole.
Speaker 2 (31:22):
It's just it's dead. It's not happening, So I get it.
What can you keep it moving?
Speaker 1 (31:27):
So who's left? Like, the only other team that I've
been itching to bet all week is Cincinnati and I've
just been wanting that number to get to three. It's
gonna be three and a half. So do you have
any thoughts on that? If not?
Speaker 2 (31:43):
Which was our fifth oh Jags?
Speaker 3 (31:45):
Yeah, yeah, I like them, But it's another spot that
it feels a lot like uh, Tennessee, where it feels
like it we know it feels like a spot we
have to bet. We know we have to bet it,
And that's what scares me that it's why wouldn't we
bet the three and a half?
Speaker 1 (32:02):
Right?
Speaker 3 (32:02):
So yeah, it's I'm glad it moved down to three,
I'll tell you that much, because it's like, Okay, at
least the professionals are still hitting, because it's it's hard.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
What we do is hard.
Speaker 3 (32:12):
Where the five and a half, the four and a
half which all the proch took on Sunday that made sense.
Them not touching a three and a half all week
just gave me pause where it's like, oh man, do
we miss the best of the number and we're betting
a dead number here?
Speaker 2 (32:24):
Where you know everyone.
Speaker 3 (32:29):
I thought everyon would be on the Jacks. That Bengos
offense was so terrible against the Browns. I'm so hesitant
to back this Jacks here because it feels like we
got away with murder last week with this Jacks team.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
We got a no sweat bet on the Jacks. I
mean that to me would be the first time we've
ever had.
Speaker 1 (32:45):
That, never had that. Yeah, I didn't even think about it.
Speaker 3 (32:48):
So we're definitely, like I always say Roulett Wheel, there's
been seven straight Blacks. We're hitting black again if we
take the Jacks here. But I can be talked into
it because I bet it. Like I'm on the three
and a half, I'm on the four.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
I just can't get over. Oh listen, running looked.
Speaker 1 (33:04):
For I don't want to. I don't want to bet
the Jacks, sir. I would rather bet the Bengals.
Speaker 2 (33:08):
Oh you do at three?
Speaker 1 (33:12):
Well, I've just been waiting for it to get to three.
So for the contest, it's this question of are we
betting the Bengals at three and a half?
Speaker 2 (33:21):
Oh, no chance.
Speaker 1 (33:24):
So who's our fifth? We have the Titans, we have
the Jets, we have the Cowboys, we have Philly all
at basically the existing numbers of today, who's our fifth?
Speaker 3 (33:36):
So I feel like I'm not going to get you there, Patriots.
I get it, I just I know all the underline numbers.
That just it's variable against Miami. He's done so well
in this exact spot, and you know the bounce back
betting on Dolphins, because the Dolphins historically have owned the Patriots,
especially at home, and you know, the whole thing was
the dark jerseys with.
Speaker 1 (33:56):
The same heat and the shade, and yeah, I get.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
It, but it's like.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
Rabel's are guy, Like eventually we got a back label
and there's spots like this that Vrabel has been very
profitable to us in this exact spot. But again, I'm
not going to force this one in because it's like
not the best number in our contest. It's one and
a half. You can get two and a half right
now on the Patriots. That's I'd be more confident there.
(34:24):
So if it's between that and the Colts at culture
two and a half, I'm gonna take the Colts in
our contest.
Speaker 1 (34:30):
I think we do the Colts.
Speaker 2 (34:32):
Do you love Atlanta? Are you still indifferent about that game?
Speaker 1 (34:40):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (34:42):
Okay, we don't have to do it that because in
our contest it's five and a half. I don't like
I don't like Atlanta. I'm on the Viking. So so
let's if you wanted to own the Atlanta and put
them in a five and a half, that would have
been on you, but like it.
Speaker 1 (34:53):
I'd rather I'd rather go with Indy plus two and
a half.
Speaker 3 (35:00):
Okay, So right now, I got Eagles minus one and
a half, Colts ye plus two and a half, yep,
Dallas minus five and a half, yep, Jets plus six
and a half, Tennessee plus five.
Speaker 1 (35:11):
And a half yep. All right, that's the final five.
One change was Colts.
Speaker 2 (35:18):
Colts Saints plus four and a half to the Colts
plus two and a half. Yep. And then last big decision.
Brother Survivor.
Speaker 1 (35:29):
Said, well, I thought we decided the other day. I
ended up in I'm in two Survivor pools. I think
I put in the Cardinals and I put in the Cowboys.
Speaker 3 (35:40):
So you're on the Cowboys. Yeah, you come around all right. Well,
the fans took a vote. I think I got like
over one thousand, five hundred or whatever it was votes.
They're on Dallas with us, so it's between them the
Ravens for the fans. I want to do Dallas because
it's just we'reever. We're never gonna use them again. I
don't know what else in this season we take them.
And I'm not gonna lie to you, Chad. I'm coming
(36:03):
around the Panthers a little bit today where it's like
I could close my eyes a little bit and see
them pulling the upside off this corner.
Speaker 2 (36:08):
See. I know it's impossible, but listen.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
Oh goddamn, I Skyler man.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
I can't your eyes. Can't do Kyler, I can't do it.
You're a man for putting your survivor. I can't do Kyler.
Speaker 1 (36:16):
I got a good okay in your eyes. The reason
I didn't do the Ravens and we'll let everyone we'll
get out of here, is there's a very good chance
towards the end of the year a lot of teams
they play will be injured. So could they, But I
think overall their roster is better, and I'd rather have
to use the Ravens late in the year than any
other the other teams we were talking about, all right,
So just to be clear, the final five Tennessee Titans
(36:41):
plus five and a half. That's where the line is
right now. Jets plus six and a half, Dallas minus
five and a half, Philadelphia minus one and a half, uh,
Indianapolis plus two.
Speaker 2 (36:53):
And a half.
Speaker 1 (36:54):
That'll be a graphic on the screen. You're probably seeing
it right now. This has been Sharper Square, part of
the Volume podcast network. We will be back on Sharper
Square YouTube tonight live after the late afternoon games around
seven thirty pm Eastern. We'll recap all the misery employ
of the day. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square.
Like this video, subscribe to the channel, download us from Spotify,
(37:16):
Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe,
leave us some feedback. It is a gift until tonight.
Love you
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock I Bet.
We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is
the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes
the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I
am joined by my cro host, my bff, my companion, Mikepadre,
Professional Better Signmon Hunter. Hello, Simon, Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Good morning, Happy week to brother.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Week two, My man. This is the strip down in
the room eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. We will be
doing this Sunday mornings during the season. Most listeners know
Simon and I have entered against the spread pick them
contests every season. We have done the show together five
games against the spread. Every week. You and I always
have a ten to fifteen minute conversation that nobody ever
(00:46):
got to hear. To review our final picks. Make sure
we didn't include games where injuries have been reported or
we were on the wrong side of massive line, massive
line moves. This is that conversations. Sometimes it's easy. I
feel like today is going to be pretty easy. Sometimes
it's hard. We're going to have to figure it out together.
(01:09):
You're ridid role as Simon.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Ready brother.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
All Right, So Listen, these are the games we had
zeroed in on the other day, Rams at Tennessee contest
line is five and a half. It's still five and
a half. This was our brass balls bet again. We
thought the Rams would be down two o line men.
They are only down one left guard, Steve Avila. Look,
(01:36):
I bet it at five and a half. I still
like it at this number. No reason for me to
walk away, what about you?
Speaker 2 (01:44):
Yeah, and people are going to see a theme here.
There's bets we've made. We like. My fear with these
bets that we made is that they're just kind of
flat numbers.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
Right, we're betting a five and a half. We'd obviously
before the six and a half. We're kind of again,
we're betting into a number that's good number, but it's not.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
It's not great. No, it really isn't because it's the Rams.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
We know we're betting against Stafford, who, Yeah, you didn't
look great last week, but this is week two, like
we this really is. It's just so early that you
can't you try not to take too much away from
week one, right, Chad, So looking at this this game,
I think my feeling is probably the same as yours.
Speaker 2 (02:25):
Is that.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
This Tennessee team just is not as bad as people
think they are. And you know, we're rolling the dice
you on cam Ward because I like, I think we
both agree. We thought he looked better than the game
played out against the Broncos, and uh, this Rams team
should not be as good, especially in the secondary, as
that Broncos team. But we know, betting on a rookie
(02:48):
in this spot against McVay and Stafford, you could get rolled.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
So to me, people out there, if you're fighting.
Speaker 3 (02:55):
This one, I get it. But when I stand on
this one, it's just got it. At four, it's five
and a half. I love cam Ward, I love this
matchup for this Tennessee's defense, and you know, like you said,
we wish both guys were out obviously betting this Tennessee
tie with Jeffrey Simmons, but I don't think it matters.
I think he's that dominant and we have so many
(03:16):
questions about that offensive line. And you saw with Houston
that Houston much better pass attack, I'll agree than this
Tennessee team, but they didn't have any Houston have anyone
in the middle like Jeffrey Simmons, and I think that's
something people are gonna see that's gonna be a big
weakness for this RAMS team. So yeah, scary, scary spot
taking the rookie year. But I love this Tennessee team.
(03:37):
I think they're still being overvalued. I'm sure we'll be
on the other side of them, but as we stayed
there in week two, it's still all public money right
now on this RAMS side. So we're feeling pretty good
about this Tennessee and just the number we're taking it
five and a half. If you can find the six,
obviously people get the six.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
I I think we're gonna we're gonna talk about games
where there's sort of a five and a half versus
six and a half. And look, I feel comfortable at
the five and a half. Five is kind of a
dead number. There's a big difference going from five to
five and a half six six and a half.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Yeah, and you just said it's dead numbers.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
Dead number, So five and a half. I feel totally
good about it. I actually am feeling more confident about
it in my head than I think the way you
sound about it.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
So just about picked behind the curtage, Chad.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
I did tell you I went to a wedding yesterday
and I've been literally working through the night. So I like,
if it sounds like I've been awake for thirty six
hours and I went to a wedding in between, that
it's true.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
That is factual.
Speaker 1 (04:38):
I'm not gonna lie to you. You don't sound great,
you don't sound like you had a rested evening, and
you are ready to sit down.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
And I wish I could say it was fun, but
I cula'tve enjoyed the wedding because all I was doing
in my mind was just thinking football. It was. It
was honestly, I got a problem.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Yeah that's the way some people would say you've got
a great life.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Yeah I do.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
I tell people I do for six months out of
the year, but the other six months it's just all
I'm doing.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Honestly.
Speaker 3 (05:04):
It's like, even though we had a good week last week,
I was already on the week two in my mind
about four o'clock midway through Sunday last week.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
So it's I'm excited for this week. I mean, I
love these lines, but I'm already like, man, week two,
you just hear so much noise again, We're we're gonna
have these games here. It's just crazy.
Speaker 3 (05:22):
The feedback I'm getting from our show because just our
show's gotten so big. Now I'm just hearing so much noise.
It's crazy.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
Block out the noise. Let's focus on us.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
That's true, right that.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
It's like any healthy relationship, Simon, focus on you and me,
And right now, you and I are going to talk
about the Bills at the Jets. The Jets six and
a half. Okay, it has been stuck on six and
a half. I have not met this yet. I am
going to, but I'm kind of hoping it'll get to seven.
I don't think it's going to get there, but that's
(05:54):
sort of why I've been hanging on. We still like
it at six and a half. It will be one
of our final five. I've been liking it more and
more as the week is going on. I've really been
thinking about the Jets are not interested in moral victories.
I love the way they played last week the more
and I have rewatched that game. I love their offense.
(06:16):
I feel like they had an incredible game and they
should have won that game, and they were on the
wrong side of luck in that game, and the Bills
just had such an emotional win a late night game.
Now going on the road, they're not going to have
that same emotional lift and their defense is in real trouble,
(06:36):
especially in the defensive backfield. No fear, no fear on
the Jets at six.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
And a half.
Speaker 3 (06:44):
Yeah, and for our show, you know, the Sharper square side,
this is definitely our sharpest pick most likely where it's
shaking me a little public here, right, because there's always
going to be those fans of Justin Fields and saw
what he did last week, and they're just gonna blindly
bet the Jets here. But I think they're kind of
partially getting the picture of it, which is my view
of it coming into the season, where I know it
(07:06):
sounded crazy talking about in August, but this is the
Ravens light this Jets offense, right, you have a mobile
quarterback that can push the ball down the field.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
And you know, say what you want about Brestaw, he's
a talented running back.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
So they're not gonna obviously put up the type of
numbers the Ravens do, but we're not looking for that.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
We're looking for a team that can.
Speaker 3 (07:26):
Do an outside zone Reid options. That's all the Ravens
simply did against that Bills team and it was you know,
felt like the bad at that thousand, it was perfect.
It could not be stopped. I mean the one on
one you saw the gaping holes. Now, yeah, Jets offensive
line step down from the Ravens. They're running back is
a step down from the Ravens. The quarterback is a
(07:48):
step down. We're not looking for forty points here, right,
We're looking for fields can get us up to that
twenty four to thirty points, keep us in range because
Josh Allen's going to get his we know, we know
we're been in two year chat. We're we've been into
the raven I mean the bills last week, so you
know it's a good number. There's a there's a really
public book out there that's already moved a five and
(08:10):
a half. So if they're at five and a half,
I'm assuming these other very public books moved that way.
I know hard Rock, you know, they're at five and
a half now as well. And here in Jersey they're
been bouncing between the six and a half and the six.
This morning hard Rock went to five and a half.
It's a big deal. So you know, the professional side
(08:31):
is going to be this Jets side. And we talked
about all the teasers, all of it. It's all going
to be bills money.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
So I like you, like you.
Speaker 3 (08:39):
I feel confident in our spot, and I'm just so
happy we have the six and a half because we
need every point here against Josh Allen. So good, good number,
good spot, underrated Jets team that's in my mind. We're
praying they pull off the upset and it's a nice,
nice fade next week on this Jets team because they're,
you know, a sixty yard field goal away from being
(09:02):
one to oher from last week and in the spot
that the potential could be two and oh and it's
like I think the general public is still sleep on
this team. And yeah, once again we're banking on fields
as a as a dog higher than three, which is
usually a good spot to back them. So six and
a half will take that every time in the contest.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
By the way, while you were talking, I started getting
nervous that this line was moving in the apposite direction.
So I bet the six and a half. If people
are watching and they saw me squinting and looking away,
it's only because I decided to We're not going to
get that seven.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
I'm not going to get I just never thought I
was gonna get back there.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
I got that. I took the six and a half.
I tried to be as patient as I could. All Right,
Titans and Jets, pretty sharp plays so far. We're on
the sharp side in both of those games. Five and
a half and six and a half.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
I definitely say the sharp the sharp number for the Titans,
that was the six.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
Yeah, but the sharp side is still going to be
the Titans regardless. The New York Giants at Dallas, Dallas
at five and a half, pretty much settling there. We know,
we got a little bit of grief from wise guys
that we were on the square side on Thursday. I'm
(10:16):
seeing everything everyone is saying. Russell Wilson will be better
against this Cowboys' secondary than he was against the Commander's secondary.
Deron Bland is out for the Cowboys. I'm just looking
purely at a quarterback quarterback situation. I'm gonna bet on
(10:38):
dak at home in a dead number that is lower
than six. Andrew Thomas out for the Giants. This team
has not been able to figure out how to protect
quarterbacks or how to run the ball when Andrew Thomas
has been out the past two seasons, Wandale Robinson limited
in practice, questionable for the game. If he does play,
he will be hobbled. He had more receptions last week
(11:00):
and thelak neighbors. So I don't love the roster that
the Giants are putting on the field, and I do
love what the Cowboys can do at home with a
much better quarterback. So I'm still on the Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
Yeah, I'm trying to find the Andrew Thomas news because
that to me, I'm right there with you. That's a
huge deal.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
He's been doubtful all week.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
The expectations practice all week either, like.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
The expectations are that he will not play.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
I agree with you.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
I was just hoping, I'd hope. I was hoping Cheffy
would do is like three a m. Tweet he was out,
but never came. I'm not gonna lie to I sat
there at one point for like thirty minutes just dead
staring in social media because I was just like, tweet it.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
I like, you have been checking this NonStop, Like I
really I want it to be true because I think
it's key to the bet. And we're look, that's what
we're doing. We're anticipating, we're prognosticating we're.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
All that. I just need it because it's this is
such Oh it's spot we never take like this is
a gift. I can't believe this is under six.
Speaker 3 (12:08):
It's been getting pounded all week by the public and
professionals alike. And we talked about the the pros came
in on the Giant side every time it touches six.
So scary, scary, scary, scary. But I'm just gonna keep
believing in they just overvaling a Giants team. And why
(12:30):
wouldn't the public be on this Cowboys team?
Speaker 2 (12:32):
Right?
Speaker 3 (12:32):
They look good in a primetime game, which I mean
you talked about that CD drops. How does CD not
come out here where one hundred and fifty yards I
saw Cowherd took his prop. I know it's super choky,
but I love to play because it's like this man
I saw the night they got back from that Eagles game.
He apparently went to the facility and just use the
(12:52):
jug machine, which you could say, oh, that's a looking
me thing.
Speaker 2 (12:56):
This dude's got the money. He's not out there for
look at me. This is this is more than that.
This is a true high level competitor.
Speaker 3 (13:03):
So CD pickens I don't see how the secondary of
that Giants team stops that that one.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
Two.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
Obviously, the running game will struggle for the Cowboys. It's
not gonna be like the Eagles without Jaalen Carter. That
to be will be the difference maybe the game, and
that's maybe the Giants can attack it. But like you
just said, we both think Russ looked absolutely finished against
the Washington defense.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
That you saw.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
The middle of the field for Washington against the Green
Bay was wide open. They have a thirty six year
old linebacker and Bobby Wagner trying to cover twenty four
to twenty five year old tight ends. Like Washington's has
their own issues, the Giants did not expose a single
one of them. So yeah, I'm I think we're in
the same page. It's I'm confident. I know I'm being
(13:48):
these words. When they win this game by three and
it's like, how did that just happen? It's weak two,
It's it's weird things are going to happen. But I
don't know, it just feel like it's a bad number
from the books and we're going to good number here.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
So dude, listen, we always know that one of our
blind spots is not playing favorites in our final five,
and I think that this is an opportunity where we
are comfortable with the good quarterback against the bad quarterback
at home. To me, that's the end, that's that's the
ball game. And honestly, I think there are harder decisions.
(14:22):
For example, I.
Speaker 2 (14:23):
Know, I'm just scared because we have two of these
this week and it's week two. It's like we two.
Speaker 3 (14:29):
We know Week two is such like an overreaction in
Week one, and I feel like we're not overreacting.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
But yeah, I don't get this line. That's what's freaking
me out. Chad.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
What pros are putting big money on this? I know
they're out there. I've talked to them and it's like,
I can't believe. You just love putting your heavy Your
biggest bet of the weekend is on Russell Wilson and
this Giants team back to back weeks.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
Tell me this doesn't feel like the Panthers last year,
where they have bought in on something they think they
are seeing with the Giants and it might be six seven,
eight weeks before everything they thought they saw for the Giants.
I think it's really about this defensive line coming to
fruition because the quarterback play is so bad and that
(15:15):
is undoing everything.
Speaker 3 (15:17):
But it's like this d line against a young guy
maybe makes sense, but it's like you went, we saw
last week, but now you're getting Dak. Like Dak is
just like we talked before the season, he's just an
underrated guy. And I think that was the biggest wake
up called the public and most people watching that Eagles game.
It's like, oh, yeah, this is this is a healthy
Dak with confidence putting the pushing the ball downfield because
(15:38):
it's a dying art. These guys just do not push
the ball fifteen twenty yards down the field anymore. And
Dak's still in that mode of pushing the ball, taking
higher risk. And yeah, I think we're in the same Patriot,
I just the Russell Wilson. This is Jackson Dart. I
actually would look at this differently, but yeah, it feels
like there's nothing less than Russ and he might be
making us eat those words as we meet it later
(15:59):
on tonight.
Speaker 1 (16:00):
All Right, we're feeling good about Titans, We're feeling good
about Jets, We're feeling good ish about Cowboys. You said
we have two of these Philadelphia minus one and a
half at Kansas City. Some money starting to come in
on Kansas City this morning. We're starting to see this
line move back in that direction. If one and a
(16:21):
half is the prevailing line that people can get, how
are we feeling about this right now? Because I'll be honest,
on Thursday, you one hundred percent convinced me that the
Eagles were the right side. You were on a roll.
I don't think anything has changed my mind since then.
(16:42):
But are we courageous enough to make this one of
our final five when the money might be moving against
us now? And we know how scary it is to
bet a game when the line is flipped from plus
one to minus one?
Speaker 3 (16:56):
It is, But like in my mind a lot of
stuff this year, with our contest, I've come to realization,
especially after last week, I'd rather lose this bet here
on Hurts in this spot than lose it on I
don't know, Drake may or yeah, Daniel Jones, because I
(17:16):
like those spots. I like those numbers. But here we're
getting a good number on a good team. You know, Hurts,
We've all seen the stats, right. I think he's at
fifteen straight wins in games he's finished for the Eagles,
So you know, incredible run on the flip side, this
could be the low of lows, right, I mean the
(17:38):
amount of pros I've heard from this week, and I've
heard what they're saying. I get their position. Anyone can
see their position coming from a mile away. Right, Oh
my god, it's my homes. You think moms going over too?
Like it's never ending amount of who is that guy?
Speaker 2 (17:55):
Is? He?
Speaker 1 (17:55):
Is he a sixty five year old dude from South
Jersey with a you're in a cigar.
Speaker 2 (18:01):
That's where I'm at. I'm an ac baby.
Speaker 3 (18:04):
It's it's never ending like it's it's so much throwing
stuff from the past into your face. I get where
they're coming from because I do take into account what
happened in the past.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
Obvio seen how big of a deal is. But what
does it have to do anything with this season?
Speaker 3 (18:19):
That the Chiefs have never been oh too since twenty
fourteen or in the Mahomes era, in the any Rid air,
they've never been over too? Have they ever had a
brutal start where they went to Brazil and then played
the defending home defending champion at home the following week?
And did they lose their one and two receiver that
they desperately needed.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
And it's just and are they all getting other than Mahomes?
Are their best players closer to mid thirties than early
thirties right or twenties?
Speaker 3 (18:52):
And it's football, Like the football, nothing lasts forever in
the sport. I mean that Belichick, Brady Error, the greatness,
Randy Moss, Gronk, all these amazing pieces. Raindy never got
a ring with those teams. Like there's just there's windows
for these different organizations. And I'm not saying this is
(19:15):
the window closed on this team, but this team is
going to be so different November than they are right
now with this Chiefs team, and they're being priced in
this game like this is a November game. So I
make the line two and a half. It's one crazy
good value on this Eagle side. And I get the
professional side, right. This is you know, every talk in
(19:38):
it on TV, every Joe public will be on the Eagles.
And this is why we talked about like this cowboy
side is Egle side. I don't feel great about it,
but it's also something I'm trying to attack. To me
and Chad had a weakness with last year where we
just were scared off of public favorites like this, and
you know it's weak two. I can easily eat this,
but you're gonna see this season. I'm gonna take stands
(19:58):
on this type of spots. And you know, this Chiefs team,
it's it's it's a team that's really gotten me and
chatting these exact spots every time we've gone against them.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
But it's just not the same Chiefs team from those past.
It's just the defense too.
Speaker 3 (20:14):
When I broke down their defense with Spags, he is
calling the same defense he always calls. The pieces are
just so new and different. They look lost, they look slow.
They're not just playing the play in the field. They're
thinking and trying to react to what they're thinking. You're
done in Spags defense are too slow. So yeah, we'll see.
(20:36):
Like this is the type of game where I think
it's gonna be in the nineties.
Speaker 2 (20:39):
Maybe some rain. You know, I don't know. Nothing favors
this Chiefs team.
Speaker 3 (20:44):
Like it's if it was thirty degrees and snowing, I
could see it working from an arrowhead. But it's September.
They're banged up, Eagles are healthy. You know, it's just
it just lines up. It's a good spot for this team.
And yeah, pros were shows. I'll ride with the public
in this exact spot. This is our squares bet of
(21:04):
the week for sure.
Speaker 1 (21:06):
You sound like you are in agony right now talking
about this, like the.
Speaker 2 (21:13):
Chat, it's scary.
Speaker 3 (21:14):
Like I woke like when I woke up whatever there
was Friday morning, like I literally had like a horrible
must have a horrible dream, and I was just like,
oh my God, like Mahomes dog at home.
Speaker 2 (21:25):
What am I doing? But I've been settling back into it.
I'm just I I have so much money on it.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
I just can't believe that this number has not budged,
like you said, it's sitting at one and a half
all week. Like we did our Sunday night show talk
about the Eagles as a dog, they flipped to a
favorite come Monday morning, it's been stuck.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
Yeah, all week.
Speaker 3 (21:45):
So game of the week. I can't believe it's not
the Sunday night game. I'm so happy so I can
finally sleep after our show on Sunday. But yeah, this
is a this is a great number, and we'll see Mahomes.
All you can think of is Mahome's magic. There's no
other re gonna take the Chiefs team like we could
get lay word that Worthy's gonna play. But seriously, that's
(22:06):
that's such a stretch when you think about the injuries
coming off of and yeah, Andy Reid said most it's
not likely that he plays, but they're still obviously leaving
the door open that he could. So you know, the
stummer could go down. But I think if once he
gets said that he's out, this could easily go up
to two.
Speaker 2 (22:22):
So I'm going to take it now. Now that's out
one and a half for this Eagles side.
Speaker 1 (22:25):
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I'm taking Seattle in Pittsburgh, which we loved all week,
off the board because that number has moved to two
and a half in a lot of places. And there's
even though Joey Porter is going to be out for
the Steelers, Devin Witherspoon is going to be out for
(25:01):
maybe out for the Seahawks, So I have some injury
concerns in that game as well as a concern about
the number. Do you feel strongly in opposing me in
removing this from our list.
Speaker 3 (25:18):
No, it's bad numbers two and a half in our contest.
There are books out there right now sitting on three
and a half for the Seahawks, So.
Speaker 2 (25:28):
Just go grab it.
Speaker 3 (25:30):
Like we said, it's a Tomlin spot to motivate his defense.
This total is a forty. I mean it's been coming
down and Chad just said that the Pittsburgh's defense is
banged up.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
But I don't know the books.
Speaker 3 (25:46):
You're thinking Tomlin's going to motivate the guys, or maybe
it says more about the Seahawks defense and I mean
offense and defense. But yeah, three and a half with
a total of forty when we have a really good
defense in the Seahawks side, we'll see It's It's obviously
we were banking a lot on Sam Donald, but it's
it's really about the running scheme and that's where you
(26:06):
think you can attack this Pittsburgh team.
Speaker 2 (26:08):
So yeah, no need to put it in at a
bad number.
Speaker 3 (26:10):
But three and a half, people, if you want to
be on the same side as me, I'm I'm taking
that three and a half right now.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
I have thoughts on Dallas on Denver at Indie. That
feels like the final game potentially to me. We can
get it at two and a half. It's gone up
since we talked about it on Thursday when you loved
it at too. Do you have any other games other
(26:38):
than that that you feel strongly about that should be
our fifth.
Speaker 3 (26:43):
Yeah, I mean we can break down the Indie game.
It's you know, a unique spot in the sense that
the Broncos were the all hype team coming into this
and I thought the Cold to be caught copping a
lot more love from the general public, and they're not right.
Speaker 2 (27:03):
Everyone's kind of to them themselves. Well maybe Miami's just
that bad.
Speaker 3 (27:06):
And I don't overreact to that Denver team, where my
view of it coming to the season is the same thing.
After two weeks or I guess a week now is
the second year quarterbacks after the first year, and all
the tape these defenses have to study. You've seen a
playout now in a couple of games. I mean the
biggest one was that Green Bay game. You saw a
(27:27):
converted effort to heavily, heavily pressure Daniels's right side, right
like that if you can get him to move to
his left to throw across his body. It was pretty
clear he had a glaring weakness there. And it sounds stupid,
like have they not figured that out last year? But
they're just little things like that, little details that some
(27:48):
team figures out and focuses on and other teams don't
notice it or exploit it the year before, but the
offense they do. And watching that Denver game there's a
lot of ways Tennessee can make him really and I
like the the idea of you know, we're getting a
good number. And that's where I agree with you that
(28:09):
if this will be our last one in again, it's
not a final one like yet I have it in
there at two and a half. I'm with you, chat,
I'll take it. But my fear of my doubt here
is just are we overvalue this Colts team after one week?
And we both agree that they are good and there
are some things we really like about them, but I
(28:32):
believe their number one and number three or corners are
out of this game. That's a big deal, Colts. I'm
miss send you guys with their secondary. So there's a
couple of games here we'll talk about. But that's the
biggest pause for.
Speaker 2 (28:44):
Me on that one.
Speaker 1 (28:45):
All Right, what am I missing?
Speaker 2 (28:48):
Where we at with this Saints number?
Speaker 1 (28:50):
I knew you were going to bring that up.
Speaker 3 (28:52):
It's four and a half in our contest three live.
Trent might not play. He's working out before the game.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
I mean we talk all the time, like if you
don't have him, that forty offense is not the same.
He is just.
Speaker 3 (29:10):
The ultimate game changer between the run, scheme, everything. He
just does everything so well.
Speaker 2 (29:17):
My fear here is.
Speaker 3 (29:19):
It's Shanahan with a backup, and for some reason you
dive into the numbers. He does really well with backup quarterbacks.
Speaker 1 (29:27):
So how many times have we said this? I don't
think there's anybody who enjoys coaching when his team is
injured and he's got to play backups more than Shanahan.
I think he loves the challenge. I think his teams outperform.
I think other teams think they're going to have an advantage,
and he can scheme like nobody else in the NFL.
(29:50):
So I know there's a big discrepancy in the numbers,
but I'm really ready to put one of our precious
five on the same.
Speaker 3 (30:00):
That's why it's like I'm not forcing it, and I
just that one jumped out to me right away where
it's like it's four and a half, they might be
on their best.
Speaker 1 (30:07):
I'm with you on Indy, like I have not bet
the Indie game. You've been talking about it all week.
I have not been able to get myself there because
I think there was some fluky stuff in that first game.
They had the perfect team, perfect matchup, perfect game. Denver's
defense is much better than Miami's, obviously, but I'd be
more comfortable with Indy than I would be with New Orleans,
(30:28):
to be honest.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
Yeah, I just I can't get over how good Party is,
especially to that team. Yeah, and.
Speaker 3 (30:36):
You know, the past, the past record we're talking about
with Shanahan and this team, I think it's fair to
say they've been better in the past than they are
right now in many aspects. I mean, they just, like
we say all the time, you pay your superstars, the
rest of the team is going to suffer. So you
know they've paid these superstars. Okay, are you not playing Party?
Speaker 2 (30:55):
Not playing?
Speaker 1 (30:57):
Kittle not playing?
Speaker 2 (30:58):
Yeah, Kittle not.
Speaker 3 (30:59):
Playing, No, Trent, that's about what one hundred million right there?
Not playing for your offense. Whatever it is, it's it's
a big deal and we're going to see that. So
I think both our hesitation is just the fact that,
right Shanahan with the backup, But it's also, like you said,
the thought of having this Saints team and we're down
fourteen and I need Spencer Rattler does somehow get me
(31:21):
back from a fourteen oh a hole.
Speaker 2 (31:22):
It's just it's dead. It's not happening, So I get it.
What can you keep it moving?
Speaker 1 (31:27):
So who's left? Like, the only other team that I've
been itching to bet all week is Cincinnati and I've
just been wanting that number to get to three. It's
gonna be three and a half. So do you have
any thoughts on that? If not?
Speaker 2 (31:43):
Which was our fifth oh Jags?
Speaker 3 (31:45):
Yeah, yeah, I like them, But it's another spot that
it feels a lot like uh, Tennessee, where it feels
like it we know it feels like a spot we
have to bet. We know we have to bet it,
And that's what scares me that it's why wouldn't we
bet the three and a half?
Speaker 1 (32:02):
Right?
Speaker 3 (32:02):
So yeah, it's I'm glad it moved down to three,
I'll tell you that much, because it's like, Okay, at
least the professionals are still hitting, because it's it's hard.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
What we do is hard.
Speaker 3 (32:12):
Where the five and a half, the four and a
half which all the proch took on Sunday that made sense.
Them not touching a three and a half all week
just gave me pause where it's like, oh man, do
we miss the best of the number and we're betting
a dead number here?
Speaker 2 (32:24):
Where you know everyone.
Speaker 3 (32:29):
I thought everyon would be on the Jacks. That Bengos
offense was so terrible against the Browns. I'm so hesitant
to back this Jacks here because it feels like we
got away with murder last week with this Jacks team.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
We got a no sweat bet on the Jacks. I
mean that to me would be the first time we've
ever had.
Speaker 1 (32:45):
That, never had that. Yeah, I didn't even think about it.
Speaker 3 (32:48):
So we're definitely, like I always say Roulett Wheel, there's
been seven straight Blacks. We're hitting black again if we
take the Jacks here. But I can be talked into
it because I bet it. Like I'm on the three
and a half, I'm on the four.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
I just can't get over. Oh listen, running looked.
Speaker 1 (33:04):
For I don't want to. I don't want to bet
the Jacks, sir. I would rather bet the Bengals.
Speaker 2 (33:08):
Oh you do at three?
Speaker 1 (33:12):
Well, I've just been waiting for it to get to three.
So for the contest, it's this question of are we
betting the Bengals at three and a half?
Speaker 2 (33:21):
Oh, no chance.
Speaker 1 (33:24):
So who's our fifth? We have the Titans, we have
the Jets, we have the Cowboys, we have Philly all
at basically the existing numbers of today, who's our fifth?
Speaker 3 (33:36):
So I feel like I'm not going to get you there, Patriots.
I get it, I just I know all the underline numbers.
That just it's variable against Miami. He's done so well
in this exact spot, and you know the bounce back
betting on Dolphins, because the Dolphins historically have owned the Patriots,
especially at home, and you know, the whole thing was
the dark jerseys with.
Speaker 1 (33:56):
The same heat and the shade, and yeah, I get.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
It, but it's like.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
Rabel's are guy, Like eventually we got a back label
and there's spots like this that Vrabel has been very
profitable to us in this exact spot. But again, I'm
not going to force this one in because it's like
not the best number in our contest. It's one and
a half. You can get two and a half right
now on the Patriots. That's I'd be more confident there.
(34:24):
So if it's between that and the Colts at culture
two and a half, I'm gonna take the Colts in
our contest.
Speaker 1 (34:30):
I think we do the Colts.
Speaker 2 (34:32):
Do you love Atlanta? Are you still indifferent about that game?
Speaker 1 (34:40):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (34:42):
Okay, we don't have to do it that because in
our contest it's five and a half. I don't like
I don't like Atlanta. I'm on the Viking. So so
let's if you wanted to own the Atlanta and put
them in a five and a half, that would have
been on you, but like it.
Speaker 1 (34:53):
I'd rather I'd rather go with Indy plus two and
a half.
Speaker 3 (35:00):
Okay, So right now, I got Eagles minus one and
a half, Colts ye plus two and a half, yep,
Dallas minus five and a half, yep, Jets plus six
and a half, Tennessee plus five.
Speaker 1 (35:11):
And a half yep. All right, that's the final five.
One change was Colts.
Speaker 2 (35:18):
Colts Saints plus four and a half to the Colts
plus two and a half. Yep. And then last big decision.
Brother Survivor.
Speaker 1 (35:29):
Said, well, I thought we decided the other day. I
ended up in I'm in two Survivor pools. I think
I put in the Cardinals and I put in the Cowboys.
Speaker 3 (35:40):
So you're on the Cowboys. Yeah, you come around all right. Well,
the fans took a vote. I think I got like
over one thousand, five hundred or whatever it was votes.
They're on Dallas with us, so it's between them the
Ravens for the fans. I want to do Dallas because
it's just we'reever. We're never gonna use them again. I
don't know what else in this season we take them.
And I'm not gonna lie to you, Chad. I'm coming
(36:03):
around the Panthers a little bit today where it's like
I could close my eyes a little bit and see
them pulling the upside off this corner.
Speaker 2 (36:08):
See. I know it's impossible, but listen.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
Oh goddamn, I Skyler man.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
I can't your eyes. Can't do Kyler, I can't do it.
You're a man for putting your survivor. I can't do Kyler.
Speaker 1 (36:16):
I got a good okay in your eyes. The reason
I didn't do the Ravens and we'll let everyone we'll
get out of here, is there's a very good chance
towards the end of the year a lot of teams
they play will be injured. So could they, But I
think overall their roster is better, and I'd rather have
to use the Ravens late in the year than any
other the other teams we were talking about, all right,
So just to be clear, the final five Tennessee Titans
(36:41):
plus five and a half. That's where the line is
right now. Jets plus six and a half, Dallas minus
five and a half, Philadelphia minus one and a half, uh,
Indianapolis plus two.
Speaker 2 (36:53):
And a half.
Speaker 1 (36:54):
That'll be a graphic on the screen. You're probably seeing
it right now. This has been Sharper Square, part of
the Volume podcast network. We will be back on Sharper
Square YouTube tonight live after the late afternoon games around
seven thirty pm Eastern. We'll recap all the misery employ
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